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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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I was being kind. Making allowance for both my own ignorance and the litigious tendencies of people with deep pockets.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Well, if I hear the Donald say something like this

quote:
“Look, Lord! Here and now I give half of my possessions to the poor, and if I have cheated anybody out of anything, I will pay back four times the amount.”
then I might, just might, be able to take James Dobson seriously. It still wouldn't make the Donald a good candidate for President but it would be a hopeful sign for his future.
I had that exact thought when I saw the headline. Where is the matching headline, with checks being written to soup kitchens and public hospitals and homeless shelters? And the announcement that his accountants and attorneys will be scouring the books so that Trump can return their money x4?

Until I see that headline, all I see is Dobson giving Trump a free pass for his every immoral action past or future, and for his every hateful word. "Oh, that was before he accepted Christ, and he's a new man now; God has forgiven him, so it's of no concern now." With its corollary, "He's a baby Christian, you can't expect him to know the language yet, or to understand what's expected of him. He'll learn. You have to be patient with him, just as God is patient with you."

It's coming. And the people who listen to Dobson will lap it up as if it's water from the River of Life, instead of poison.

May God have mercy.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

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Brenda Clough
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What is sad is that some non-Christians will point at Trump, the next time they need to put religion down. Dobson is doing the faith no favors at all.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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fausto
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
What is sad is that some non-Christians will point at Trump, the next time they need to put religion down. Dobson is doing the faith no favors at all.

It's nothing new, though. They are already pointing at Dobson. Have been for years.

[ 26. June 2016, 17:05: Message edited by: fausto ]

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"Truth did not come into the world naked, but it came in types and images. The world will not receive truth in any other way." Gospel of Philip, Logion 72

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Wake up America. Fear has won in Britain, do not let it in the US.

Not that I want disaster for the UK, but if their economy circles the drain and they have governmental chaos over the next few months, and if this is well covered in US media, Trump's self-identification with the Leavers may help Clinton's chances in November.
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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Wake up America. Fear has won in Britain, do not let it in the US.

Not that I want disaster for the UK, but if their economy circles the drain and they have governmental chaos over the next few months, and if this is well covered in US media, Trump's self-identification with the Leavers may help Clinton's chances in November.
If Americans* were capable of that level of awareness, Trump wouldn't have made the debates, much less the nomination.

*As a group, not each and every one.

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Hallellou, hallellou

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
# 2522

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His national approval ratings took a nosedive over the past two days, and a major GOP leader announced he is leaving the party a couple days ago, too.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
His national approval ratings took a nosedive over the past two days, and a major GOP leader announced he is leaving the party a couple days ago, too.

Remember that Remain was showing stronger before the actual vote...

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
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I don't see why one outcome necessarily predicts the other.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
# 2522

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I don't see why one outcome necessarily predicts the other.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
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I just saw George Osborne giving one of those confidence-boosting speeches that were popular towards the end of George W Bush's Presidency. He was saying with gusto that the Bank of England had prepared for this eventuality and it's Gold! Gold! Gold! to every British bank and business that wants it, or anyone else with the right accent probably. Well, it is an Olympic year...

Batten down the hatches, because the silver lining for the United States pointed to above may well eventuate.

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Human

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
His national approval ratings took a nosedive over the past two days, and a major GOP leader announced he is leaving the party a couple days ago, too.

Remember that Remain was showing stronger before the actual vote...
One wonders if that's what emboldened some people to "protest vote" -- the polls assured them that Remain was going to win, and so they felt it was safe to protest in that way.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
His national approval ratings took a nosedive over the past two days, and a major GOP leader announced he is leaving the party a couple days ago, too.

Remember that Remain was showing stronger before the actual vote...
Not in the same way Trump is polling. Jamelle Bouie of Slate explains:

quote:
What’s striking about the results of the EU referendum is the extent to which they matched the polls. Every survey of Brexit showed a close race between the two sides — a coin toss. The balance of the polls suggested a narrow — but far from dispositive — lead for “Remain.” The final result was in line with the projection: a contest with no clear advantage for either side in which “Leave” won an extremely modest victory. Here in the United States, our polls show a substantial Trump loss in the general election against Hillary Clinton, just as they showed a substantial Trump win in the Republican presidential primaries.
In short, the result of the Brexit vote was within the margin of error for most advance polling. A Trump victory lies outside that margin of error as it stands now. Granted that four and a half months is a long time in electoral politics and that any major party nominee has a non-trivial chance of winning the presidency, but if the election were held today Trump would almost certainly lose badly.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
I don't see why one outcome necessarily predicts the other.

It doesn't necessarily. I think my statement primarily reflects my mood.
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
One wonders if that's what emboldened some people to "protest vote" -- the polls assured them that Remain was going to win, and so they felt it was safe to protest in that way.

I think so. Plus, in many polls, the status quo is under represented compared to actual voting results.
People express outrage and wish for change, but those on the fence will typically vote against change.
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
In short, the result of the Brexit vote was within the margin of error for most advance polling. A Trump victory lies outside that margin of error as it stands now. Granted that four and a half months is a long time in electoral politics and that any major party nominee has a non-trivial chance of winning the presidency, but if the election were held today Trump would almost certainly lose badly.

I agree about the Brexit margins. I thought the early, and incorrect, capitulation of the Brexiteers was premature and stupid when it happened.
Four months is plenty long enough for the rogue Oompa Loompa to recover. I agree that the election should be Hilary's to lose, but what faith I had in the electorate died Thursday.

--------------------
I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
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See, my interpretation of the nosedive is that it was a big mistake for Trump to crow over the referendum the way he did. He combined ignorance with total crassness to make a neat bundle of disgusting. I think he overestimated the tolerance of his demographic.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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lilBuddha
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I do hope you are correct, but I am out of optimism at the moment.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
I do hope you are correct, but I am out of optimism at the moment.

I hear that.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Brenda Clough
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Since this is Trump's SOP, and he seems unable to do anything else, I have hope that he will continue to disgust a greater and greater number of Americans. Most people don't start paying attention to the election until after Labor Day.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Crœsos
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# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
Until I see that headline, all I see is Dobson giving Trump a free pass for his every immoral action past or future, and for his every hateful word. "Oh, that was before he accepted Christ, and he's a new man now; God has forgiven him, so it's of no concern now." With its corollary, "He's a baby Christian, you can't expect him to know the language yet, or to understand what's expected of him. He'll learn. You have to be patient with him, just as God is patient with you."

It's coming. And the people who listen to Dobson will lap it up as if it's water from the River of Life, instead of poison.

May God have mercy.

And now apparently Donald Trump is a prophet who speaks for God:

quote:
“In a very calm, quiet way, with his arms folded, he said, ‘you religious leaders,’ he called us, ‘have every right to speak up and express yourselves, and you don’t. The First Amendment protects that right and yet you don’t.’”

[Pastor Michael] Anthony said the room knew he was spot-on.

“He’s exhorting us and yet we know he’s right when he said it.”

In that moment, Anthony is convinced God was using Trump to move Christians to act to defend their religious freedom.

“I think God was speaking through him at that moment, to the church, to tell us why are you being silent about the most important thing about your lives?”



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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
See, my interpretation of the nosedive is that it was a big mistake for Trump to crow over the referendum the way he did. He combined ignorance with total crassness to make a neat bundle of disgusting. I think he overestimated the tolerance of his demographic.

With others, I'm unable to share your optimism-- we've seen Trump hit rock-bottom levels of disgusting before only to pick up the shovel and dig down another 6 feet to new lows of filth, and still be embraced by some mysterious yet apparently significant demographic.

The real low for me last week was when Trump interpreted the referendum purely in how it impacted him. Not even the briefest allusion to how it might effect Britain, other European nations, immigrants, or even the US. No, the referendum was a good thing because (he thinks) it will bring more customers to his new Scottish golf resort.

A telling glimpse as to what a Trump presidency will be like.

But again, we've had similar telling glimpses before w/o any measurable impact on his popularity so still keeping that Canadian visa in the back pocket...

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally quoted by Crœsos:
quote:
In that moment, Anthony is convinced God was using Trump to move Christians to act to defend their religious freedom.

And God knows, what Jesus wants from us above all is to look out for our own rights and privileges.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
See, my interpretation of the nosedive is that it was a big mistake for Trump to crow over the referendum the way he did. He combined ignorance with total crassness to make a neat bundle of disgusting. I think he overestimated the tolerance of his demographic.

With others, I'm unable to share your optimism -- we've seen Trump hit rock-bottom levels of disgusting before only to pick up the shovel and dig down another 6 feet to new lows of filth, and still be embraced by some mysterious yet apparently significant demographic.
Since Trump entered the Republican primaries back in June 2015 he always polled at the head of the Republican candidate field. What we were treated to was a succession of pundits and experts who told us to ignore the polls because "Trump hit rock-bottom levels of disgusting" and was sure to lose support any day now. This was never followed by any discernible change in polled support among Republicans. It's deceptive to attribute this to "some mysterious yet apparently significant demographic". Trump has had the support of a plurality of Republican primary voters pretty steadily for over a year. There's nothing particularly "mysterious" about this, other than to various pundits who trust their own instincts about voters more than they trust polls of those voters.

On the other hand, Trump has also never polled above Hillary Clinton with the general electorate except for a brief period in late May when he had effectively secured his party's nomination and she was still focused on beating Bernie Sanders when they were effectively tied.

[ 27. June 2016, 18:26: Message edited by: Crœsos ]

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:

With others, I'm unable to share your optimism -- we've seen Trump hit rock-bottom levels of disgusting before only to pick up the shovel and dig down another 6 feet to new lows of filth, and still be embraced by some mysterious yet apparently significant demographic.
Since Trump entered the Republican primaries back in June 2015 he always polled at the head of the Republican candidate field. What we were treated to was a succession of pundits and experts who told us to ignore the polls because "Trump hit rock-bottom levels of disgusting" and was sure to lose support any day now. This was never followed by any discernible change in polled support among Republicans. It's deceptive to attribute this to "some mysterious yet apparently significant demographic". Trump has had the support of a plurality of Republican primary voters pretty steadily for over a year. There's nothing particularly "mysterious" about this, other than to various pundits who trust their own instincts about voters more than they trust polls of those voters. [/QUOTE]

Don't disagree with any of that. By "mysterious" I just meant I can't seem to locate any of those Trump supporters. Despite the fact that (outside of the Ship, a blessed refuge) I work, play, worship, and socialize almost entirely in a conservative evangelical bubble, I have so far been unable to find even a single friend or acquaintance in any of those spheres who will admit to being a Trump supporter. (Several pages back I speculated on why that might be). I'm not disputing the polls or the strength of his support, just saying it's "mysterious" to me-- both the why? of it but also the where? of it.

[ 27. June 2016, 20:10: Message edited by: cliffdweller ]

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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fausto
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
I work, play, worship, and socialize almost entirely in a conservative evangelical bubble, I have so far been unable to find even a single friend or acquaintance in any of those spheres who will admit to being a Trump supporter.

Perhaps because you live in a very blue state where it might be uncomfortable to admit. My career in real estate finance in Massachusetts puts me in touch with a lot of conservative Republicans too (although not so many evangelical ones), and like you, I see very few of them who are willing to express open support for Trump. Some of them express strong reservations about him, but aren't quire ready to vote for Clinton instead. But when I visited my father in Florida last week, there were noticeable Trump supporters out in the open.

Consistent with reports on the news, the Trump support that I have seen firsthand seems strongly concentrated among blue-collar whites without college or university degrees.

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"Truth did not come into the world naked, but it came in types and images. The world will not receive truth in any other way." Gospel of Philip, Logion 72

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ThunderBunk

Stone cold idiot
# 15579

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After the discussions I've had elsewhere on this fair vessel in the course of today, I thought I would just enter a plea for the US of A not to enter the clusterfuck 2016 club. Please? It's incredibly hard to get yourself out once you're in, and very painful.

Just say no, kids, just say no.

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Currently mostly furious, and occasionally foolish. Normal service may resume eventually. Or it may not. And remember children, "feiern ist wichtig".

Foolish, potentially deranged witterings

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
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Preaching to the choir, dude. Advise us on how to plead with our friends and relatives not to fuck our country up without provoking them to sheer orneriness.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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@ Croesos

Makes me take a well known C S Lewis quote out of its original context and apply to James Dobson and Pastor Michael Anthony.

quote:
These men claim to see fern-seed and can't see an elephant ten yards away in broad daylight.


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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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cliffdweller
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# 13338

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quote:
Originally posted by fausto:
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
I work, play, worship, and socialize almost entirely in a conservative evangelical bubble, I have so far been unable to find even a single friend or acquaintance in any of those spheres who will admit to being a Trump supporter.

Perhaps because you live in a very blue state where it might be uncomfortable to admit.
Yes, that was one of a couple of possibilities I mentioned upthread when I first mentioned this experience. As I said then, of the 4 or 5 possible explanations I came up with, this one is the most frightening.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
# 2522

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On that note, there might be red state residents who are uncomfortable admitting they would rather vote blue-- or not at all-- tham vote Trump. We'll just have to work hard and pray hard till November.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
His national approval ratings took a nosedive over the past two days, and a major GOP leader announced he is leaving the party a couple days ago, too.

Remember that Remain was showing stronger before the actual vote...
UK polling has issues, mostly to do with shy Tories/Brexiters/non-Independence types but also to do with relying upon the past to predict the now.

By contrast in the States is the polling in the US at the state level is absurdly dense. That and there really isn't much in the way of "shy Trumpers", from what we've seen in the primaries/caucuses.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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Though some famous GOPers are making a point of publicly leaving the party, like conservative columnist George Will.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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And the GOP convention gets more fraught with problems: "Ex-cop urges ‘lone wolf patriots’ to attack Black Lives Matter activists at GOP convention" (Wash. Post).

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Palimpsest
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quote:
Originally posted by ThunderBunk:
After the discussions I've had elsewhere on this fair vessel in the course of today, I thought I would just enter a plea for the US of A not to enter the clusterfuck 2016 club. Please? It's incredibly hard to get yourself out once you're in, and very painful.

Just say no, kids, just say no.

If only.... We already have the precursors, Trump and a competitor who is loathed by many. Not much most of us can do except vote against Trump and hope the angry white working class doesn't screw everything.
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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Palimpsest:

Not much most of us can do except vote against Trump and hope the angry white working class doesn't screw everything.

I think the UK lesson is not to ignore the "angry white working class" left behind, and often without work, by globalisation and technological change. Crude protectionism and isolationism are pipe-dream answers. But some better answers need to be found. Policies, rather than sympathies. What do these policies look like? Work conveys some independence and dignity. There are reasons for the anger.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
fausto
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# 13737

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Palimpsest:

Not much most of us can do except vote against Trump and hope the angry white working class doesn't screw everything.

I think the UK lesson is not to ignore the "angry white working class" left behind, and often without work, by globalisation and technological change. Crude protectionism and isolationism are pipe-dream answers. But some better answers need to be found. Policies, rather than sympathies. What do these policies look like? Work conveys some independence and dignity. There are reasons for the anger.
My, that's a short question requiring a long and nuanced answer that touches on complicated issues of economics and sociology. It would be way beyond my capacity or knowledge to answer fully, but I suspect that there are some key principles that would need to be satisfactorily addressed:

1. To replace obsolete industries successfully with prosperous, growing ones, economic policies need to nurture entrepreneurship and innovation. We don't know what industries will be dominant in 20 or 50 years, but we do know that many of today's dominant industries won't be. Policy makers whose default economic suppositions rest in the static class-warfare and/or Keynesian economic frames need to become equally comfortable with the dynamic "Austrian school" of economic thinking and Joseph Schumpeter's frame of "creative destruction".

2. An internationally competitive labor force must either be very inexpensive or very skilled. In the future it will no longer be possible for a national economy to sustain a large proportion of its labor force with low skills and high wages through the customary route of combining redistributive taxation and social service policies with countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Building and sustaining a normatively highly paid, highly skilled labor force requires at least two major paradigm shifts: (1) First, governments must make high-quality advanced education universally available and affordable. (2) Second, the public must recognize that advanced education and the high wages it commands in the marketplace are not entitlements, but acccomplishments that need to be achieved through personal determination and focus. "The world owes me [or you]" and I'm [or you're] all right, Jack" are not bases for sound policy.

3. The harsh reality needs to be acknowledged that trade protectionism and regulatory wage manipulation can temporarily mitigate these transitions but cannot fully prevent them. Both governments and the public need to recognize that the obsolescence of major industries will cause serious employment dislocation, which will inevitably hurt many people who do not deserve it and are not well prepared to navigate these transitions. Compassionate, generous government policies such as temporary income support and job skills retraining are needed to support the victims of economic dislocation and prepare them adequately to participate in the new economic landscape. At least in the US, such efforts have historically been inconsistent in scope and inadequate to the need.

[ 28. June 2016, 11:22: Message edited by: fausto ]

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"Truth did not come into the world naked, but it came in types and images. The world will not receive truth in any other way." Gospel of Philip, Logion 72

Posts: 407 | From: Boston, Mass. | Registered: May 2008  |  IP: Logged
lilBuddha
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Originally posted by fausto:

quote:
Second, the public must recognize that advanced education and the high wages it commands in the marketplace are not entitlements, but acccomplishments that need to be achieved through personal determination and focus.

This is a road which further widens the wealth gap and strengthens/establishes hereditary classes.
The higher up the mountain one starts, the easier it is to summit.
There is also too skewed a view when determining what jobs are worth. It takes much more time & resource to become a doctor than a sanitation worker, but the latter saves more lives.

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Crœsos
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# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I think the UK lesson is not to ignore the "angry white working class" left behind, and often without work, by globalisation and technological change. Crude protectionism and isolationism are pipe-dream answers. But some better answers need to be found. Policies, rather than sympathies. What do these policies look like? Work conveys some independence and dignity. There are reasons for the anger.

Given that the non-white working class seems to react very differently to the same set of policies, I think it's short-sighted to ignore the racial component involved. If the "white working class" was angry because of economic policy we would expect to see the same anger among their non-white counterparts. We don't.

A partial explanation from Jamelle Bouie:

quote:
For millions of white Americans who weren’t attuned to growing diversity and cosmopolitanism, however, Obama was a shock, a figure who appeared out of nowhere to dominate the country’s political life. And with talk of an “emerging Democratic majority,” he presaged a time when their votes — which had elected George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan — would no longer matter. More than simply “change,” Obama’s election felt like an inversion. When coupled with the broad decline in incomes and living standards caused by the Great Recession, it seemed to signal the end of a hierarchy that had always placed white Americans at the top, delivering status even when it couldn’t give material benefits.
Then again, it can't be About Race, because nothing in America is ever About Race.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Brenda Clough
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# 18061

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Earlier this year I spent a couple days in the upper left hand corner of Pennsylvania. (Brits will wish to know that it is an almost perfectly rectangular state.) There is nothing there -- it is heavily forested and furnished with lakes, very remote and far from cities and transport, and the main industry is hosting visitors for hunting, fishing and hiking. This is not especially lucrative, and everyone there agrees that there should be more money. I think so too -- there are too many shuttered buildings and derelict structures; the place needs some love.
But they also stoutly maintain than any change would be bad. Mowing down the forests and erecting factories, attracting industry that would bring in weird foreigners -- no. I was puzzled to think of some way to achieve the goal (more prosperity) without some sort of change. High tech? There's not enough educated people or wide-band internet. Finally I decided that it would be the perfect place for a supervillain to set up a secret HQ. Buy yourself a mountain, hollow it out, and plan to conquer the world -- nobody would notice, it's so empty. And you'd be steadily buying beer, structural steel, loads of concrete, etc. and so stimulating the local economy. You could hire locals to help you build the battle-bots.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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fausto
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# 13737

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Originally posted by fausto:

quote:
Second, the public must recognize that advanced education and the high wages it commands in the marketplace are not entitlements, but acccomplishments that need to be achieved through personal determination and focus.

This is a road which further widens the wealth gap and strengthens/establishes hereditary classes.
The higher up the mountain one starts, the easier it is to summit.
There is also too skewed a view when determining what jobs are worth. It takes much more time & resource to become a doctor than a sanitation worker, but the latter saves more lives.

Precisely why high-quality higher education needs to be universally accessible, rather than available primarily to the privileged few.

You can't hire local sanitation workers in third-world factories, but you can move entire factories overseas and staff them with low-skill, lower-paid workers there. There are only so many low-skilled jobs that must be done at home, and as long as there is a worldwide surplus of low-skilled labor, the jobs that do not require a specific location or specific skills will gravitate toward the lowest-wage labor markets. That's just an unpleasant reality of international economic competition. The best national defense against low wages, and the best policy for long-term national prosperity, is still to maintain a highly trained labor force.

[ 28. June 2016, 14:14: Message edited by: fausto ]

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"Truth did not come into the world naked, but it came in types and images. The world will not receive truth in any other way." Gospel of Philip, Logion 72

Posts: 407 | From: Boston, Mass. | Registered: May 2008  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
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# 9110

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Very good, Croesos. Pretty much the dilemma facing the Labour Party in the UK. How do we, simultaneously, confront the racism and incipient xenophobia, which is no answer to anything, AND respond constructively to the loss of meaningful work?

I was brought up working class, and my parents taught me that education was crucial to getting on. My dad also advised me, when I was 16, to look for my future outside the region I was born in, which was in serious economic decline because of the loss of traditional industries. I followed his advice, became a kind of economic migrant in my own country. After University, I went to where the work was. That's OK for an individual. But not everyone can do that.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by fausto:
Precisely why high-quality higher education needs to be universally accessible, rather than available primarily to the privileged few.

A brief analysis of some of the obvious logistical problems of "everybody should go to an elite college" solution:

quote:
quote:
Getting a bachelor’s degree is the best way to escape poverty.
Wait, are we talking about selective colleges, or just college? Apparently the former:

quote:
Talented students should go to the best college they can — and not just for the career advantages later. A student who could get into a top school is nearly twice as likely to graduate there than if she goes to a noncompetitive school. The top colleges are the only ones where students of all income levels graduate at the same rates. The reason is money: Selective colleges are richer. They can afford to provide specialized counseling and lots of financial aid. And running out of money is the most common reason people drop out.
Again, nobody ever says “let’s make society more equal by sending more people to selective colleges” because, you know, math: The overwhelming majority of Americans (conservatively, 95%) can’t go to selective colleges, BECAUSE THAT’S WHAT IT MEANS FOR A COLLEGE TO BE SELECTIVE.

Indeed a large majority of Americans won’t graduate from college, period — one third of adults have college degrees, up from 5% in 1950 — because among other things college functions as a signaling mechanism and a purveyor of positional goods (i.e., degrees) and as college degrees become more common the signal becomes fuzzier and the goods become less valuable (by definition).

I'm also highly dubious of a theory that postulates that low-skill jobs, like scrubbing floors, can be sent overseas but jobs requiring a lot of training, like accounting or web design, can never be. It seems like it's analyzing the global labor pool that existed in the mid-twentieth century, not the one that exists today.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by fausto:
Policy makers whose default economic suppositions rest in the static class-warfare and/or Keynesian economic frames need to become equally comfortable with the dynamic "Austrian school" of economic thinking and Joseph Schumpeter's frame of "creative destruction".

Forty years ago it might have been true that most policy makers were more familiar with Keynes and class-warfare suppositions (*) than they were with the Austrian school and Schumpeter. These days it is the other way around. Perhaps there's less Schumpeter around now than in the heyday of the eighties, but there's still a lot of Austrian school. Either way, our current malaise is far more down to the failures of an Austrian and Schumpeterian influenced thinking than it is to any thing Keynesian.

It is incidentally slightly misleading to describe the Austrian school as economic thinking in the same way as Keynesian thinking is economic thinking.(**)
The Austrian school rejects the idea that there are any rules governing the economy. It is more of a set of political values. Generous government policies are contrary to Austrian school values, since Austrian school values see any government policies aimed at interfering with economic situations as an interference with freedom and only accidentally likely to have the desired effect.

(*) Not at all the same thing - Keynes is not interested in class warfare.
(**) Keynes is I think the only economic theorist who could have published a book entitled How to Make a Fortune off the Stockmarket from his own personal experience. Keynesian economic thinking is basically that How To manual turned into macroeconomics.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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simontoad
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# 18096

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what needs to be done to aid workers?

Spread the wealth around, so that workers in places like Bangladesh have comparable standards of living to workers in developed countries.

Fight corporate tax fraud by broadening the proportion of indirect taxes in the tax mix, and increasing the number of people engaged in investigating and prosecuting tax fraud.

Substantially increase the number of people employed in the public sector, especially in social welfare services.

Increase taxes on the private sector generally so that the rich start to bleed, just like they did in post-war Britain. This includes taxing private education, massively increasing the price of petrol and really everything else. You can't dodge taxes on spending or ownership.

Kill all the entrepreneurs. Just make up a charge and frame the bastards. Tax legal advice. OK, I've lost my head a bit...

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Human

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fausto
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I didn't say elite, I said high-quality. In the US there are high-quality public colleges and there are also execrable private ones. What matters is that everyone who is capable of benefiting from a good education should have access to one.

A good education is not necessarily a means of preserving social stratification; it's also a powerful means of social leveling. My family is a good example. My mother's father was the oldest of ten kids on a subsistence farm in Indiana. He was the first in his family to attend college -- at public Indiana University, where he received a full scholarship. He subsequently earned a Ph. D. and became a tenured professor on the faculty at Columbia. Likewise, my father was the son of a Glasgow shipyard worker who had moved to New York after two years without a job in Scotland when shipbuilding slowed down in the wake of WWI. He was the first in his family to attend college -- at elite Yale, but also on a full scholarship funded by the US Navy. He subsequently pursued a successful career in international business and government.

My fear is that the kinds of educational (and subsequent employment) opportunities that were available to disadvantaged but motivated students like my father and grandfather may become less widely available just at a time when even more demand and greater need are emerging -- for reasons that are partly political and partly sociological.

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"Truth did not come into the world naked, but it came in types and images. The world will not receive truth in any other way." Gospel of Philip, Logion 72

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Crœsos
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# 238

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Well that was certainly worth $7 million*:

quote:
Ending one of the longest, costliest and most bitterly partisan congressional investigations in history, the House Select Committee on Benghazi issued its final report on Tuesday, finding no new evidence of culpability or wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton in the 2012 attacks in Libya that left four Americans dead.
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*The New York Times paywall allows non-subscribers to read ten articles per calendar month. Only click through if you're a NYT subscriber or want use one of your monthly Times passes to read about a Congressional committee discovering nothing new.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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mousethief

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# 953

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Final my arse. If she gets elected they'll find a way to resurrect it.

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John Holding

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\into this interesting discussion let me intrude.

Your visions will work if, and only if, all human beings are capable of meeting a specific level of ability+interest. That's certainly implicit in the American dream that everyone can become anything s/he wants if s/he works hard enough. The dream is not limited to the US, of course, its part of the conservative public agenda (if not always part of the policies conservatives pursue).

But it's also clearly not true.

I'm not just thinking of the 50+ year old out-of-work cod fishers in Newfoundland and Labrador who were sent on computer programming training, in an area where there were no jobs, the training was inadequate in any case, and there were no funds to support moving the workers even if they had been willing to relocate.

Many people don't have the ability, and more don't have the creativity or interest to be part of the exciting new human economy. I believe human beings, by and large, want to have the ability to feed and clothe themselves, have adequate shelter and bring up a family (if partnered), not work themselves to death,and have some free time to do something they like to do for fun. I see no evidence that increasing proportions of people in any society are becoming more creative and more intelligent and therefore more able to participate in this new version of the Whig interpretation of history -- that everything always is getting better and more exciting.

BTW, i find abhorrent and immoral the idea that we should shove increasing amounts of the grunt work that actually support whatever society we have on to the shoulders of less well paid and foreign workers: they, after all, are just as creative and intelligent as we are ourselves, and deserve chancea, education and opportunity equal to those we want for ourselves.

John

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Crœsos
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# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
Final my arse. If she gets elected they'll find a way to resurrect it.

Since they're still discussing the "murder" of Vince Foster nearly a quarter of a century later, that seems like a safe bet.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Lyda*Rose

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# 4544

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John Holding:
quote:
I believe human beings, by and large, want to have the ability to feed and clothe themselves, have adequate shelter and bring up a family (if partnered), not work themselves to death,and have some free time to do something they like to do for fun.
Or as labor leader Rose Schneiderman's phrase was quoted in this poem:
quote:
Our lives shall not be sweetened
From birth until life closes
Hearts starve as well as bodies
Give us bread but give us roses



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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano

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Callan
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# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally quoted by Crœsos:
quote:
In that moment, Anthony is convinced God was using Trump to move Christians to act to defend their religious freedom.

And God knows, what Jesus wants from us above all is to look out for our own rights and privileges.
Not convinced.

God may have spoken through Balaam's Ass, but I like to think he has some standards.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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