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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Some time ago, Barnabas put three options for republicans voting for Trump. They were something like:
1. Squeeze your arsecheeks together and hope you don't get screwed;
I guess the sub-clause to this is that one hopes that Trump will fail to deliver as he has in every other business venture he has gone into.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Nick Tamen
Here is a link.
My "10 electoral votes" for Gary Johnson was a bit arbitrary. Basically, any number which prevents either of the major party candidates getting 270 votes triggers the House option.
Sure it's very unlikely. But this is 2016. Odd things are happening!
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Nick Tamen
Ship's Wayfaring Fool
# 15164
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Sure it's very unlikely. But this is 2016. Odd things are happening!
Very true. And there is precedent—George Wallace carried 5 states in 1968.
But by contrast, Ross Perot got around 19% of the popular vote in 1992, but no electoral votes.
But yes, this does seem to be the year for odd things to happen.
[ 01. August 2016, 12:17: Message edited by: Nick Tamen ]
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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott
Posts: 2833 | From: On heaven-crammed earth | Registered: Sep 2009
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
So we're exactly 99 days out from Election Day.
Nate Silver has the probability of a Clinton victory at 61.8%, with an average outcome of 290 electoral votes.
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium (sort of like Nate Silver for those who want more technical math with their analysis) predicts a 65% chance of a Clinton victory using a random drift model and an 85% chance using Bayesian analysis. Wang's average outcome is Clinton getting 320 electoral votes.
RealClearPolitics, which is a current state aggregator rather than a predicting trend analyzer, currently has Clinton winning 202 electoral votes, Trump winning 154, and 182 electoral votes listed as "toss ups".
So that's the current state of play, as best as anyone's able to figure out. What does the terrain look like?
Our best model for the American electorate is the 2012 election results. This gives us an idea where states shake out on the D/R scale. The results aren't set in stone, but there seems to be very little a candidate can do to move individual states without moving the rest of the country as well. So Wyoming is more Republican than Texas, which is more Republican than Florida, which is more Republican than California. Anything which is able to move voters from voting Democratic to voting Republican (or from Republican to Democrat) in Florida (for example) will likely also move voters in the same direction in Texas and California as well, though those states are so partisan the movement of a few percentage points won't affect their electoral votes.
Now the country as a whole went for Obama by 3.86 percentage points over Romney, which you may think means that Trump simply has to move at least 1.93% of the electorate into the Republican column (or register enough new Republicans to inflate the electorate by 3.86%), but the U.S. does not select the president by popular vote, it's done at a state level.
The balance-point state in 2012 was Colorado. This means that if you were to make a list of the states with the most Republican-voting states at the top and work your way down to the most Democratic voting states, Colorado would be where your electoral vote total reached at least 270. So how did Colorado vote last time? They went 51.49%/46.13% Obama/Romney, for an Obama victory margin of 5.37 percentage points. So the Republicans need to shift the electorate at least 2.68% to the right from where it was in 2012. In raw numbers this means convincing ~3.5 million people who voted for Obama in 2012 to vote for Trump in 2016. And that's a net number. In other words they'll need ~3.5 million more 2012 Obama voters to vote for Trump than Romney voters who vote for Clinton. (Or getting 7 million more non-voters to vote Republican than the Democrats are able to convince to vote for their candidate.) Not impossible, but difficult.
As far as the Gary Johnson question goes, Gary Johnson got 0.99% of the vote in 2012. The state where he got the highest percentage of the popular vote was New Mexico, at 3.55%. Johnson is currently pulling ~7% support in national polls that include his name. In 1992 Ross Perot got 18.9% of the popular vote and zero electoral votes. The closest he came was Maine, which went 38.77%/30.39%/30.44% Clinton/Bush/Perot. So while I wouldn't say the possibility of Johnson winning any electoral votes in 2016 is exactly zero, it would seem to be negligible.
[ 01. August 2016, 14:16: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
Thanks for the info, but the predictors are using voting patterns that might have no connection to this election. Did any of those sources have Trump as the Republican nominee early on?
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Thanks for the info, but the predictors are using voting patterns that might have no connection to this election.
Silver and Wang both trend based on current polling data.
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Did any of those sources have Trump as the Republican nominee early on?
For the most part, yes. If you look at the polling, Trump polled ahead of his Republican primary competitors pretty much from the time he announced and never really fell behind. The main people who didn't anticipate a Trump victory were those who relied on their political "gut" rather than polling (including, embarrassingly, Nate Silver in the early days of the primaries).
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
To quote Andy Borowitz, an ever-reliable commentator: "Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, who have both remained silent since Trump attacked the Gold Star parents, need to realize that as GOP leaders this is the last exit before Hell."
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
This is not like any other election we've ever had, so polls 99 days in advance probably aren't telling us much. I think there will be lots of "October Surprises" throughout August, September, and October (maybe even the first week of November).
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Thanks for the info, but the predictors are using voting patterns that might have no connection to this election.
Silver and Wang both trend based on current polling data.
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Did any of those sources have Trump as the Republican nominee early on?
For the most part, yes. If you look at the polling, Trump polled ahead of his Republican primary competitors pretty much from the time he announced and never really fell behind. The main people who didn't anticipate a Trump victory were those who relied on their political "gut" rather than polling (including, embarrassingly, Nate Silver in the early days of the primaries).
Which is the origin, I believe, of the "polls plus" model. Silver wanted to test a theory that "the party decides"- that is, that primary polls are particularly unreliable, and that past elections showed that endorsements from office holders within the party were more predictive of results.
I have heard at least one person say that, if Trump wins, we can at least enjoy watching the entire election consulting industry, which is built on the conventional wisdom that there is one way and one way only to win an election, frantically try to explain why it should still exist. Fiddling while Rome is burning? Sure. But it would still be entertaining.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
To quote Andy Borowitz, an ever-reliable commentator: "Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, who have both remained silent since Trump attacked the Gold Star parents, need to realize that as GOP leaders this is the last exit before Hell."
Trouble is, Brenda, in any other year Trump's dreadful comments would have killed his candidacy stone dead. Here is a remarkable interview with Khizr Khan.
But I don't know any more. Trump's supporters seems to me to live in a post-fact world, so far as any objectivity about his character is concerned.
John McCain has spoken out. But where are Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan?
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Amanda B. Reckondwythe
Dressed for Church
# 5521
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
But where are Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan?
Hiding their faces in shame and embarrassment, I should think.
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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.
Posts: 10542 | From: The Great Southwest | Registered: Feb 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I suppose attacking Muslims has been one of Trump's fortes, but then attacking Muslim parents of a dead soldier, goes beyond that.
As others have said, normally Trump's comments would kill him dead, politically speaking, but these are strange times. After all, didn't Trump criticize McCain for getting captured in Vietnam?
Strange echoes of 30s Germany, where being a hero, or a great artist, was no defence against being Jewish.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Strange echoes of 30s Germany, where being a hero, or a great artist, was no defence against being Jewish.
When anyone striving to gain power is able to tap into a "general feeling", described by ordinary members of the German public who experienced the 30s, then you know something murky is going on.
Uncanny parallels between that and today's US do exist . An Imperial foriegn venture that went bad (03), followed by a slump (08). Throw in a bit of civil unrest with someone promising restore law and order? Bit of stretch maybe, however people are people, all it takes are the right/wrong ingredients.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
John McCain has just come out against Trump's statements; one may hope that he will take back his endorsement but one wouldn't hold one's breath. Also, the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) has denounced him. This ought to have an impact; there are lots of vets in the US and they vote.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Twilight
Puddleglum's sister
# 2832
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Uncanny parallels between that and today's US do exist . An Imperial foriegn venture that went bad (03), followed by a slump (08). Throw in a bit of civil unrest with someone promising restore law and order? Bit of stretch maybe, however people are people, all it takes are the right/wrong ingredients.
Never leave out fear and stupidity.
Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
John McCain has just come out against Trump's statements; one may hope that he will take back his endorsement but one wouldn't hold one's breath.
Yes, that's the problem. There doesn't seem to be any line that Donald Trump can cross that would cause John McCain or Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell to withdraw their support from his candidacy. I particularly liked this bit from McCain's statement:
quote:
I cannot emphasize enough how deeply I disagree with Mr. Trump's statement. I hope Americans understand that the remarks do not represent the views of our Republican Party, its officers, or candidates.
Aside from the candidate it's put forward for President of the United States, of course! They'll condemn his statements but continue to maintain he'll make a suitable president.
During her acceptance speech Hillary Clinton questioned the suitability of a president who you "can bait with a tweet". Donald Trump seems to have set out to illustrate that point as graphically as possible.
[ 01. August 2016, 20:35: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
Vote against it is then...
Good for you all!
![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
Every time I read a piece like this I am strongly reminded of Castro.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
John McCain has just come out against Trump's statements; one may hope that he will take back his endorsement but one wouldn't hold one's breath.
Yes, that's the problem. There doesn't seem to be any line that Donald Trump can cross that would cause John McCain or Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell to withdraw their support from his candidacy. I particularly liked this bit from McCain's statement:
quote:
I cannot emphasize enough how deeply I disagree with Mr. Trump's statement. I hope Americans understand that the remarks do not represent the views of our Republican Party, its officers, or candidates.
Aside from the candidate it's put forward for President of the United States, of course! They'll condemn his statements but continue to maintain he'll make a suitable president.
During her acceptance speech Hillary Clinton questioned the suitability of a president who you "can bait with a tweet". Donald Trump seems to have set out to illustrate that point as graphically as possible.
That is one of the oddities of a Presidential, as opposed to a Parliamentary system. I remember reading an exchange on Twitter between some Blairite ultras, complaining that Ed Miliband was the worst possible candidate for PM. When someone pointed out they were going to vote for him, they solemnly intoned that they were going to vote for their Labour candidate. In Britain, you elect an MP, not a Prime Minister. That isn't as disingenous as it sounds. I can think of politicians whom I might like as my MP, even if I didn't want their party leader as PM.
Obviously, in the US, this defence doesn't really work. You can't really say that whilst you have no brief for Mr Trump, what you really think the country is calling out for is Mr Hiram J. Hickenbacker as the representative of Tennessee at the electoral college. I can see why Ryan is holding back. If things go badly for Trump and he keeps his counsel, then he might be in with a shot at going after Hilary in 2020. But what's in it for McCain? He could repudiate his endorsement of Trump and call for the election of Republicans downticket, and it wouldn't effect his quality of life in the slightest. It's ironic, the leading representatives of the party of muscular patriotism seem a little bit short of courage, really.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
It's ironic, the leading representatives of the party of muscular patriotism seem a little bit short of courage, really.
Well, I suppose they may be awaiting guidance on timing from Rupert Murdoch, now he's had to take over Fox News. I think Trump is an old friend of the deeply discredited and departed Roger Ailes.
I imagine Fox News will recover from its present embarrassments, but it might be harder to do so if GOP complaints against Trump escalate. As they deserve to do. On the other hand, it might be a good distraction from the revelations about Fox News's internal crappiness
[BTW, as well as slamming the Khans, didn't Trump also slam the women who have complained about Roger Ailes behaviour? He really is a piece of work]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Every time I read a piece like this I am strongly reminded of Castro.
That insults Castro. Seriously.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Croesos--
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Interestingly not all the founders thought "male" had to be a requirement. The New Jersey Constitution of 1776 allowed women to vote provided they met the property requirement ("worth fifty pounds proclamation money"). This persisted until 1807, when the franchise was removed from the women of New Jersey.
Thanks for this. Interesting document. Though you'd have to know that "all inhabitants" was really meant to include women. Sometimes, seemingly universal language was meant to apply only to men. I ran page searches for "women", "woman", and "female", and they aren't mentioned at all.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
romanlion--
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
Vote against it is then...
Good for you all!
Psssst...you do realize that you'll have to live with it, whichever one is elected? That there will be consequences? Unless you find another country to take you in.
If you really, truly believe that T and H are equally bad in the same way, then sure, sit by and laugh at the whole thing. Use copies of the Constitution to make pinatas of T and H. Take up underwater basket-weaving*.
But if, by any chance, you think that one perhaps can be trusted with the nuclear codes and being Commander in Chief, and the other one *can't*--then VOTE.
*That's not any kind of bad wish. Just an old joke about taking a useless class or pursuit.
[ 02. August 2016, 00:58: Message edited by: Golden Key ]
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
The thing is, there is no real choice. A giant, orange cranky toddler vs a real politician. The worst thing Clinton is is status quo.
Pretending Trump is in any way, shape or form an acceptable candidate is delusional.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Lamb Chopped
Ship's kebab
# 5528
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
A giant, orange cranky toddler ...
I saw this on Today's active threads and thought it was a reference to a Pokemon.
Then I clued in.
You write the joke.
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Er, this is what I've been up to (book).
Oh, that you would rend the heavens and come down!
Posts: 20059 | From: off in left field somewhere | Registered: Feb 2004
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Every time I read a piece like this I am strongly reminded of Castro.
That insults Castro. Seriously.
In what way?
Castro was a popular leader, but had issues with egotism, rage control, and paranoia. He frequently was his own worst enemy, and being his friend ( political or otherwise) was a dodgy proposition. I did not make that comment without having read a thing or two about Castro.
And a lot of Reinaldo Arenas.
Sure, he mellowed out eventually, but still.
[ 02. August 2016, 02:30: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
Callan posts:
quote:
It's ironic, the leading representatives of the party of muscular patriotism seem a little bit short of courage, really.
My perspective is a bit different-- I think that many are quite bewildered and perplexed as to what they can, should, or might do. No party in living memory has had to address the issue of a markedly unsuitable candidate à la Trump. Perhaps the only other parallel was the fall of President Nixon, when it was becoming clear that even his cabinet was deserting him.
Several leading Republicans are starting to indicate that they will be withdrawing their endorsement-- many others (and here is where Callan's indictment of them as chicken is justified) are afraid that they may be political consequences among their right-wing voters. Of course there will be consequences! There is nothing more terrifying to a careerist than to take a risk on a question of principle-- I will watch with interest.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Every time I read a piece like this I am strongly reminded of Castro.
That insults Castro. Seriously.
In what way?
Castro was a popular leader, but had issues with egotism, rage control, and paranoia. He frequently was his own worst enemy, and being his friend ( political or otherwise) was a dodgy proposition. I did not make that comment without having read a thing or two about Castro.
And a lot of Reinaldo Arenas.
Sure, he mellowed out eventually, but still.
So, insult is the wrong word to use. That would indicate some level of respect for Castro that I do not have. I was aware of his problems, but was thinking along the lines of his having actually run a country. However, that was in a restricted fashion with the support of the U.S.S.R and then under the significant restraint of lack of resources. It is well possible that he could have been much worse had he more opportunity.
That said, I still think Trump is worse. At least Castro had an ideology and a focus.
Trump is just a bag of wind, fanning flames of demagoguery to inflate his own ego.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
Well, I wouldn't want either one of them running any country I happened to be in, and that is my only point.
RE: muscular patriotism-- probably preaching to a very large choir, but I feel it is important for my own personal patriotism to say this... I was rewatching DNC highlights and I really cringed when Biden went into that " we OWN the finish line" rant about the US being the greatest! Nation! In the world!
Ugh. We really need to evolve out of that attitude. We are a sibling among other siblings on Mother Earth, just to be corny about it. We are not the greatest nation, nor are we the worst, we are just part of the world. And the only way we are going to get anywhere is to link arms.
End of rant.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502
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Posted
Re the whole Castro vs Trump comparison, I would think murdering political opponents would be worse than hate speech.
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Re Castro:
He did try to help his people, in with all the other stuff--.e.g., he improved education and healthcare. And he helped overthrow Pres. Batista. I don't know much about Batista, but I gather he was a bad guy, became president via a coup, and needed to go.
I suspect, with all Fidel's bad actions, he still did more good as president than Trump would do.
![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif) Donald , please get bored, quit the campaign, and go do something that's healthy for you, and doesn't hurt anyone.
To adapt "Fiddler On The Roof":
Rabbi's students: Rabbi, is there a proper blessing for the Donald?
Sweet old rabbi: Of course! There's a blessing for everything. (Thinks a minute.) May God...bless...and keep the Donald...far away from us!
(Edited to do some editing!)
[ 02. August 2016, 04:56: Message edited by: Golden Key ]
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
Re the whole Castro vs Trump comparison, I would think murdering political opponents would be worse than hate speech.
I don't know, take Bush's death toll vs. Castro's and you begin to see why Trump is much more dangerous.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
Re the whole Castro vs Trump comparison, I would think murdering political opponents would be worse than hate speech.
He's not in the oval office yet. Remember, this is a bloke who admires Putin.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
Re the whole Castro vs Trump comparison, I would think murdering political opponents would be worse than hate speech.
I don't know, take Bush's death toll vs. Castro's and you begin to see why Trump is much more dangerous.
I somehow doubt your calculation takes into account the death toll for which Castro is partially responsible for from the various civil wars in Central America and Angola.
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Trump is already lining up his excuses for losing.
“November 8th, we’d better be careful, because that election is going to be rigged. And I hope the Republicans are watching closely or it’s going to be taken away from us.”
Hopeful.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Somebody - I think Lindsey Graham - observed that the problem with Republican Presidential candidates was that there weren't enough angry white guys. Romney lost in 2012 because he couldn't reach beyond that particular constituency. I may be missing something here, but I can't see what exactly Trump has done to reach out to Hispanics, African-Americans and women. I suspect that in the stygian depths of what passes for his soul Trump knows that as well. Trump neatly snaffled the angry white guy demographic during the primaries but only at the cost of alienating pretty much everybody else. I really think that this is a re-run of 1964 when LBJ successfully persuaded everybody that Barry Goldwater was not really the sort of chap you wanted in the situation room at 3am when everything was kicking off and a closet racist to boot. I am not an unqualified admirer of the late Senator Goldwater but compared to Trump, he looks like Barack Obama.
It's worth having a look at some of LBJ's campaign advertisements from the 1964 election on Youtube. Two things struck me. Firstly the fact that they can be used pretty much interchangeably. ("Confessions of a Republican", "The Klan Supports Goldwater", "Daisy, Daisy").
Secondly, in the "Daisy, Daisy" advert, LBJ's campaign people got away with using the line "we must love one another or die"; which is a quote from W. H. Auden, much beloved of E.M Forster. That's really quite funny. You can imagine what would have happened if good-hearted but ineffectual men like Carter, Mondale or Dukakis had tried that line in 1980, 1984 or 1988. But a mean SOB like LBJ could pull it off admirably. It's like the joke about how the campest Anglo-Catholics are the ones with a wife and children.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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lilBuddha
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# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
I somehow doubt your calculation takes into account the death toll for which Castro is partially responsible for from the various civil wars in Central America and Angola.
If you truly wish to have a balanced comparison, you would need to compare the entire US presidency during the years of Fidel's power. Or pick a particular 8 years, but whatever. For sake of argument, lets us say you are correct and Castro is objectively worse.
Trump is still an unstable, unqualified fool with no aptitude for running a country which can have so devastating effect on the entire world.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Prester John
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# 5502
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
I somehow doubt your calculation takes into account the death toll for which Castro is partially responsible for from the various civil wars in Central America and Angola.
If you truly wish to have a balanced comparison, you would need to compare the entire US presidency during the years of Fidel's power. Or pick a particular 8 years, but whatever. For sake of argument, lets us say you are correct and Castro is objectively worse.
Trump is still an unstable, unqualified fool with no aptitude for running a country which can have so devastating effect on the entire world.
Agreed with all of that. My issue with stating Trump was worse than Castro is that it is no diferrent than the partisan crap that I've heard peddled the last 16 years as to how the incumbent was no better than Hitler.
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Golden Key
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# 1468
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I may be missing something here, but I can't see what exactly Trump has done to reach out to Hispanics, African-Americans and women. I suspect that in the stygian depths of what passes for his soul Trump knows that as well.
Um, he's gone out of his way to offend all of them.
BTW, is the "Daisy, Daisy" ad the one with the little girl blowing a daisy puff, while there's a countdown to nukes?
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
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Callan
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# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I may be missing something here, but I can't see what exactly Trump has done to reach out to Hispanics, African-Americans and women. I suspect that in the stygian depths of what passes for his soul Trump knows that as well.
Um, he's gone out of his way to offend all of them.
BTW, is the "Daisy, Daisy" ad the one with the little girl blowing a daisy puff, while there's a countdown to nukes?
That would be yer typical British understatement. ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
Yeah, "Daisy, Daisy" is the one with the small child and the mushroom cloud. Somewhere in the US, a live in carer is taking the telephone to an elderly gentleman who, back in the day, had a distinguished career in advertising. He takes the handset and says "Hello". A familiar voice responds; "This is our most desperate hour. Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. You're my only hope". A wolfish smile plays across his face. "I do follow the television news, Ma'am. I think that there are one or two numbers in the back catalogue that can be suitably updated".
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
Trump is already lining up his excuses for losing.
“November 8th, we’d better be careful, because that election is going to be rigged. And I hope the Republicans are watching closely or it’s going to be taken away from us.”
Hopeful.
Yes and no. I think this does mean he knows he's going to lose. It also means things are likely to get ugly when he does. He's not going to take it lying down.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Callan
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# 525
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Posted
NY Republican breaks for Hilary.
[ 02. August 2016, 14:47: Message edited by: Callan ]
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
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Brenda Clough
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# 18061
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Posted
No, he will file suit. He files lawsuits about everything. Which will bollix up the start of the Clinton presidency terribly. You will recall that people as disparate as Nixon and Gore refused to roil the republic by contesting a close election. I find it difficult to envision Trump being so public-spirited.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
It's worth having a look at some of LBJ's campaign advertisements from the 1964 election on Youtube. Two things struck me. Firstly the fact that they can be used pretty much interchangeably. ("Confessions of a Republican", "The Klan Supports Goldwater", "Daisy, Daisy").
Confessions of a Republican
Confessions of a Republican revisited by the Hillary Clinton campaign
The Klan Supports Goldwater
Daisy
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
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Callan
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# 525
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Posted
Oh, I hadn't seen the Hilary remake. Please tell me that she's planning a new version of "Daisy, Daisy".
Am I bad for thinking that they should have had a female Republican this time, so that fans of the original could claim that they had spoiled it a la the new Ghostbusters? ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
[x-post]
[ 02. August 2016, 15:56: Message edited by: Callan ]
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Obama adds his voice to those saying Trump is unfit to be president. Although I guess this is hardly a surprise?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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lilBuddha
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# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
Agreed with all of that. My issue with stating Trump was worse than Castro is that it is no diferrent than the partisan crap that I've heard peddled the last 16 years as to how the incumbent was no better than Hitler.
Those comparisons are stupid. Plain and simple.
The US presidency, by nature, makes such abuses* unlikely.
However, if one looks at personality, Trump makes a apt comparison to dictators. I'm not an expert on presidential candidates, but I've never heard of anyone so unsuitable becoming a major party selection.
Again, if elected he will not likely deserve such a comparison with his record. But that would be more due to the structure of US government, not him.
*At least in scale and openness.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
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Sipech
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# 16870
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Posted
I'd rather be erroneous in comparing Trump to Castro or Hitler than to be able, in 5+ years time, to be able to compare any future world leader to Castro, Hitler or Trump.
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