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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Regardless of partisanship, that is not a conclusion that calls for a rockert surgeon

Ok, so why is important then that its a "a former CIA director" who is saying these things? I'm far more interested in the positions of people who worked under Bush II, to be honest.

Bloomberg - now there was a devastating neutral's position

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
Ok, so why is important then that its a "a former CIA director" who is saying these things? I'm far more interested in the positions of people who worked under Bush II, to be honest.

Bloomberg - now there was a devastating neutral's position

At a guess, there are a number of people, from across the political spectrum, who have been in public service, who are in various degrees disturbed and/or appalled by the possibility of a Trump Presidency. They wouldn't normally come out of the woodwork, but reckon it's justified this time. If you are looking for a secondary concern, it is probably the recognition that Hillary Clinton may be vulnerable this year. Flawed or not, they would much rather see her in the job than Trump.

I doubt whether you have to look much deeper than that. Such concerns are entirely justified.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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mousethief

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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
Ok, so why is important then that its a "a former CIA director" who is saying these things?

I'm assuming it's because the CIA director would work very closely with the Secretary of State, and so would have some intimate knowledge of HRC's mode of working and interacting with others? Just a thought.

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Og: Thread Killer
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I'm not saying the concerned is not justified.

What I'm saying is the pitch of the story itself, both in this discussion as it was first presented and in the outside world is "ex CIA director" thinks x not "ex CIA director with ties to Clinton" thinks x.

It would be like taking the pulse of the man on the street about Obama and doing so by asking a certain butler.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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mousethief

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Given that he said, and I quote via cut-and-paste, "I spent four years working with Mrs. Clinton when she was secretary of state, most often in the White House Situation Room," and that the next three paragraphs after that also give his personal observations of working with HRC at State, I am going to have to call bulltookey on your claim.

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Brenda Clough
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What struck me about the CIA guy's words was his remarks about Putin. An ex KGB agent, Putin must know all there is to know about harping upon psychological weaknesses. Putin will be able to play Trump like a kazoo.

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Barnabas62
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Anyways, for the stats-geeks amongst us, here are the 538 forecasts using an updated model.

Forecasts and explanations

Top left hand corner gives you three forecast options. The methodology is explained in more detail here.

Here are the betting odds in the UK. They look pretty close to the current "polls plus" forecast, which shows a narrowing of the current percentage in favour of Hillary Clinton.

Of course, this is the Brexit year and I guess all forecasting will be taken with a pinch of salt. Trump remains a "one-off", a "wild card".

As always, I'm impressed by the model building and the factors taken into account. 538 has been well worth watching for trend lines during the last two Presidential elections; I should think that will apply this year as well.

[ 05. August 2016, 21:05: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I'm far more interested in the positions of people who worked under Bush II, to be honest.

You did not read the article thoroughly, that was the very same person.
The first paragraph:
quote:
During a 33-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, I served presidents of both parties — three Republicans and three Democrats. I was at President George W. Bush’s side when we were attacked on Sept. 11; as deputy director of the agency, I was with President Obama when we killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.
Now, one can still doubt his intentions. But seriously, it fits with the way Russia operates since during the Cold War and that is where Putin was trained.
It is obvious how Trump reacts to praise or criticism.
1+1=2 regardless of how much you trust the person telling you.

quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
What struck me about the CIA guy's words was his remarks about Putin. An ex KGB agent, Putin must know all there is to know about harping upon psychological weaknesses. Putin will be able to play Trump like a kazoo.

Anyone could play Trump.
The reporter who started the small hands thing has been consciously manipulating the Trumpa Loompa. He didn't need intelligence training to do so.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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romanlion
editorial comment
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Anyone could play Trump.

But never a woman with a red overcharge button.

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Brenda Clough
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The Atlantic Magazine has been running a steady Trump blog, recording his evolution as candidate. Here is today's. I draw your attention especially to posts #70 and 71. This is even more horrifying, believe it or not, than everything that has gone before.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Golden Key
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
Ok, so why is important then that its a "a former CIA director" who is saying these things? I'm far more interested in the positions of people who worked under Bush II, to be honest.

Um, you want their positions re Hillary? If so, why? They didn't work with her. The former CIA director did.

And re your later post about asking the former CIA chief being like asking a butler on the street about Obama: If he were O's butler, or had taken care of O as his employer's guest, that might be a sensible thing to do.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Golden Key
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Anyone could play Trump.

But never a woman with a red overcharge button.
Goofs happen during diplomacy. At least this one wasn't deeply insulting. And both parties laughed. There've been bad goofs during various US diplomatic visits to China. And when Queen Elizabeth paid a state visit to Pres. Gerald Ford, the US Marine band played "The Lady Is A Tramp" when they were dancing together!

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
And when Queen Elizabeth paid a state visit to Pres. Gerald Ford, the US Marine band played "The Lady Is A Tramp" when they were dancing together!

Yeah, nearly 70 years of marriage, but what about before that?

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Pigwidgeon

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Didn't Jimmy Carter (the way his translator put it) want to have carnal knowledge of the Polish people?

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~Tortuf

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lilBuddha
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So much for being an outsider and friend of the people, the Orange one just picked a bunch of bankers and hedge fund managers and billionaires as advisors. Because they did not fuck up the world's economy quite enough or because they need a few billion more?

[ 06. August 2016, 05:20: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Penny S
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I used to live opposite an old quarry tramway which had a tunnel which had been used as a bomb shelter during WWII, nut by the time they filled up the cutting and hid the entrance, I wasn't worried as I thought we didn't need a bolthole any more.

There isn't anywhere like that round here, and I don't have the advantage of a hill between me and London, either. I'm beginning to worry again.

[ 06. August 2016, 08:26: Message edited by: Penny S ]

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Og: Thread Killer
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# 3200

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
Given that he said, and I quote via cut-and-paste, "I spent four years working with Mrs. Clinton when she was secretary of state, most often in the White House Situation Room," and that the next three paragraphs after that also give his personal observations of working with HRC at State, I am going to have to call bulltookey on your claim.

EXCEPT you all are missing the point.

I'm talking about the lead, not the context.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Golden Key
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Og--

Well if we're all missing your meaning, perhaps it would help if you explained it more carefully and simply?

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

Of course, this is the Brexit year and I guess all forecasting will be taken with a pinch of salt. Trump remains a "one-off", a "wild card".

I'm not sure that he necessarily is a wild card. I bet ambitious people are taking note, and even if Trump loses the stage is set for someone slightly more self aware and slick to adopt the same strategy and tap into the same constituency and emotions.
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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

Of course, this is the Brexit year and I guess all forecasting will be taken with a pinch of salt. Trump remains a "one-off", a "wild card".

I'm not sure that he necessarily is a wild card. I bet ambitious people are taking note, and even if Trump loses the stage is set for someone slightly more self aware and slick to adopt the same strategy and tap into the same constituency and emotions.
Fair point. I hope you are wrong. Tapping into anger and frustration, identifying "the real enemy", promising a golden age, making "trust me" noises. All grist to the mill to would-be demagogues. Mind you, flamboyancy normally comes along with demagoguery. But a bit more subtle, a bit toned down? Yes, I guess someone might be working on that.

But hold you hard! The present supremely unpleasant version hasn't lost yet.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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rolyn
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I just wonder if brexit had lost whether all that mischief and anti-establishment bluster wouldn't have just shrunk away into it's former grumbling mediocre self, never to be rekindled.
One can but hope if trump is beaten then this kind of base-appeal electioneering will not be revived in a long long time.

< Anyone hear the sound of a straw being clutched? >

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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lilBuddha
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One of the base problems is that there are real fears and concerns.
The economic disparities, instability in the world, etc.
Unless those are addressed, there will be sufficient numbers of discontented people.
Another problem is the media. Entertainment is more valuable to them than accuracy or balance, even when they do not have an outside agenda.
As far as Trump himself, he is an outlier currently. He has an uncommon set of qualities that allowed him to happen. However, even if another like him is unlikely, he has opened the door for an increase in hate politics.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Brenda Clough
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That is why the Tiny Fingered One cannot just lose. He has to lose spectacularly, by a stupendous margin. He has to be ground into the dust, utterly humiliated, The Biggest Loser, cited for the next hundred years as How Never To Do It. He has to slink away in shame to his nearest casino and bury his head in a stack of poker chips. Only then will hopeful imitators be warned away.

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lilBuddha
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He has already set the ground for that eventuality. If he loses, he will salve his ego by continuing his claim of election rigging.
This may well keep fertile his current base for other weeds to grow.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Brenda Clough
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It will have far less credence if he loses by, oh, thirty percentage points. That's why it has to be a blowout. You might persuade yourself of connivery, if you lost by a whisker. By a landslide, you need to be delusional (not that there would be a problem on this point).

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Huia
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Trump being decimated at the polls would help, in the short term, but unless the base problems that lilBuddha mentioned are tackled there is still going to be the kind of resentment that leads to someone similar, but slicker taking his place.

I don't know if I am way off beam here, but if Trump is decimated there may be a large group of people who feel angry and desperate, who feel that they have nothing to lose, unless some of the inequalities are addressed.

The dangers aren't the same as him being President would be (IMO), but how long can any country be safe with such a large, angry minority?

Huia

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Charity gives food from the table, Justice gives a place at the table.

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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quote:
Originally posted by Huia:
I don't know if I am way off beam here, but if Trump is decimated there may be a large group of people who feel angry and desperate, who feel that they have nothing to lose, unless some of the inequalities are addressed.
Huia

Yes, especially since Trump has already said the election will be rigged. And there will be, soon or in the far future, someone who idolizes Trump, and wants to be president so he can take up Trump's crusade.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Lamb Chopped
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# 5528

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There are always lunatics. But the best we can do is to deal with the one under the spotlight now. The others we will have to cope with when they come.

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Er, this is what I've been up to (book).
Oh, that you would rend the heavens and come down!

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mousethief

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# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by Lamb Chopped:
There are always lunatics. But the best we can do is to deal with the one under the spotlight now. The others we will have to cope with when they come.

Sufficient unto the day is the eedjit thereof.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Golden Key
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I hope this isnt a one eedjit a day plan, like a vitamin? Or, alternatively, like building up a tolerance for a poison?
[Paranoid] [Help]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Og: Thread Killer
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# 3200

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So Trump to refocus on the economy this week. Tax cuts and a regulation pause among his ideas. I wonder what happens if Trump actually keeps on message for a few days. Not sure he can do it but are the Dems able to pivot if necessary?

Long way to go...long way to go.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
It will have far less credence if he loses by, oh, thirty percentage points. That's why it has to be a blowout.

Who do the dems have to run against him that is capable of a blowout? And what is the mechanism by which they replace their nominee?

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Brenda Clough
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
So Trump to refocus on the economy this week. Tax cuts and a regulation pause among his ideas. I wonder what happens if Trump actually keeps on message for a few days. Not sure he can do it but are the Dems able to pivot if necessary?

That's the terror and fascination of it. The Tiny Fingered One will go off script, sure as the sun will rise. But where, when with the explosion be?

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
It will have far less credence if he loses by, oh, thirty percentage points. That's why it has to be a blowout.

Who do the dems have to run against him that is capable of a blowout? And what is the mechanism by which they replace their nominee?
No one has ever won the popular vote by such a margin. Even the famously lopsided contests of Nixon v. McGovern or Reagan v. Mondale were won by 23% and 18%, respectively.
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romanlion
editorial comment
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
It will have far less credence if he loses by, oh, thirty percentage points. That's why it has to be a blowout.

Who do the dems have to run against him that is capable of a blowout? And what is the mechanism by which they replace their nominee?
No one has ever won the popular vote by such a margin. Even the famously lopsided contests of Nixon v. McGovern or Reagan v. Mondale were won by 23% and 18%, respectively.
Clinton may very well win the Presidency, but it will require her hiding from the press as she has been for months, and the full effort of the current POTUS (professional campaigner) for many weeks on the trail to make it happen.

Hillary is an embarrassment and couldn't blow out Adolf Hitler by 30 points.

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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simontoad
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I've had a long think about it, and I've decided that I will vote for Donald Trump at the next General Election. I believe that he is a good and decent man, very honest, very good and very decent. I believe he has made tremendous sacrifices for the American people, and that he will make sure, according to his word, that America will be great again.

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Human

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Palimpsest
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I heard a bit of his speech on economics today as I was parked on the highway behind a broken cement mixer.

I was amused briefly by his saying he was going to get rid of all agency regulations followed by complaining that the Chinese don't give workers safe conditions and pollute the environment. Apparently he can prevent that here without regulation.

He was proposing to cut taxes (especially for the rich) and increase spending on the military without saying where the money would come from. Looks like another one of his bankruptcy specials.

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I've had a long think about it, and I've decided that I will vote for Donald Trump at the next General Election. I believe that he is a good and decent man, very honest, very good and very decent. I believe he has made tremendous sacrifices for the American people, and that he will make sure, according to his word, that America will be great again.

Donald, it's not nice to hack someone's account and post as them.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
So Trump to refocus on the economy this week. Tax cuts and a regulation pause among his ideas. I wonder what happens if Trump actually keeps on message for a few days. Not sure he can do it but are the Dems able to pivot if necessary?

That's the terror and fascination of it. The Tiny Fingered One will go off script, sure as the sun will rise. But where, when with the explosion be?
Sebastapol?

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
Hillary is an embarrassment and couldn't blow out Adolf Hitler by 30 points.

Well those are the stakes.
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
So Trump to refocus on the economy this week. Tax cuts and a regulation pause among his ideas. I wonder what happens if Trump actually keeps on message for a few days. Not sure he can do it but are the Dems able to pivot if necessary?

That's the terror and fascination of it. The Tiny Fingered One will go off script, sure as the sun will rise. But where, when with the explosion be?
Sebastapol?
This is literally the scenario I'm writing this very minute.

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Forward the New Republic

Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061

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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
It will have far less credence if he loses by, oh, thirty percentage points. That's why it has to be a blowout.

Who do the dems have to run against him that is capable of a blowout? And what is the mechanism by which they replace their nominee?
No one has ever won the popular vote by such a margin. Even the famously lopsided contests of Nixon v. McGovern or Reagan v. Mondale were won by 23% and 18%, respectively.
But this is not a usual election cycle, you will agree. The Tiny Fingered One himself will tell you that he is not a usual candidate. One must have hope!

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Brenda Clough
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# 18061

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This is from today's POST but you need not click: the headline says it all. "Trump Needs A Miracle To Win". The reporters analyze the data and conclude, "Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump in November, and the margin isn’t likely to be as close as Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney."

From their word processor to God's Twitter feed! (If you're over on FB I posted a cartoon to the SoF page.)

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200

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As long as Wikileaks acts like a side project by Robert Ailes, the probability of an embarrassing thing for the Dems being found reminds high.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061

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Here you go. I knew he would run off the rails and sure enough he did. Advocating the assassination of your opponent is definitely something new in the American elections process. (Unless he was advocating the assassination of Supreme Court justices, it's not quite clear, but the Donald is not known for syntax.)

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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What a dangerously stupid man he is. That was an incitement to gun owners to take the law into their own hands.

[ 09. August 2016, 22:22: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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He's already given them permission to beat people up at his rallies. Said he'd pay their court costs, he did. I'd say this passes the reasonable man test as an incitement to shooting HRC, and by implication to murder.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Hedgehog

Ship's Shortstop
# 14125

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I found this article from Politico to be interesting. It suggests the possibility that disgruntled Republicans might make the strategic choice to vote...for the Green Party's Jill Stein.

Why? It would be a long-view concept: if the Greens can get 5% of the vote, then they would qualify for public campaign funds for 2020--which would be far more money than they usually have to work with. That would help establish them as a "legitimate" party. The theory is that Republicans who cannot stomach the thought of either Clinton or Trump would choose the Green Party in order to get it to have "major party status" (cough, cough) and thus would become a constant drain of the far left voters from Democrats in future elections.

So, by voting Green now (and essentially conceding the election to Clinton), Republicans could then weaken the Democrats chances of winning future elections.

From the article:
quote:
The prospect of Republicans voting for Stein en masse may seem half-baked. But note that in both the CNN and McClatchy/Marist polls, the percent of Republicans voting for Stein, while small, is 1 point more than that of the Democrats. If by November, more and more Republicans feel like they can’t stomach either Trump’s instability, Johnson’s social liberalism or Clinton’s likely Supreme Court nominees, they may conclude that elevating Stein provides Republicans with the most tangible political benefit.

In the words of WKRP's Dr. Johnny Fever: "I understand. This is so deeply warped that even I can make sense of it."

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"We must regain the conviction that we need one another, that we have a shared responsibility for others and the world, and that being good and decent are worth it."--Pope Francis, Laudato Si'

Posts: 2740 | From: Delaware, USA | Registered: Sep 2008  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
I'd say this passes the reasonable man test as an incitement to shooting HRC, and by implication to murder.

mousethief, I'm not sure what state and federal law has to say about such statements. I suppose there may be a defence to be made out of "vagueness". And that actually worries me more than anything else. I suppose it is possible that he knew what he was doing by saying that, so he "feathered" it to stay (maybe just) within the law.

I've been around for seven and a half decades, been politically aware for 6 of those, have been following US Presidential Elections since 1956. I think what is happening here is without precedent or parallel, certainly in my time as an observer.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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Now look, some people around the place have been saying that President-elect Donald J. Trump encouraged people who support the second amendment to assassinate Cheating Hilary.

Now on any view of what the Next President of the United States said it was an aside, an off the cuff remark, and therefore obiter dicta (or something). Now his lawyers tell Mr. Trump that such statements are not meant to be followed. It was a joke! C'mon, it was just a joke.

It was just a joke about the NRA taking legal action to defend the rights of the American people. It was nothing about that woman who was so mean to her husband's lovers. I don't know how people got that understanding. It was just a private joke between the Next President of the United States and the NRA.

You know, Donald J. Trump doesn't have a stump speech. He makes every speech up as he goes along. I like that about him. He's not a machine politician. He's not one of the back street lads. He wasn't around when the great decisions of the twentieth century were made, and I think that's just great.

I'm convinced. I'm going to vote for Donald J. Trump at the next General Election.

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Human

Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014  |  IP: Logged



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