 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Source: (consider it)
|
Thread: Purgatory: In, out, in, out; EU Referendum thread.
|
|
|
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
|
Posted
Breaking news. If you are a Brexit supporter, you have just won a really big name to your side, though one without a vote in the referendum. Donald Trump agrees with you.
Apparently, on hearing this, Stephen Mangan has tweeted "now backed by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Nigel Farage, George Galloway, Marine Le Pen and Katie Hopkins".
--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
Defintely a case of "with friends like these, who needs enemies?"
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
|
Posted
Definitely a case of argumentum ad hominem.
--------------------
Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Definitely a case of argumentum ad hominem.
... and undoubtedly the kindest spin that can possibly be put on it.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
It's not just ad hominem.
Trump embodies a mindset of withdrawal, of raising national drawbridges in the illusory hope of somehow preserving all the good aspects of progress whilst turning back the clock to some unspecified time when there was "a real [insert name of homeland here]" and life was simpler and better - but with no actual numbers or consistent policies to support this chimera.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I wonder how the Republican nearly-nominee's decision to back Brexit will affect voters?
Trump supporters will think "Of course he backs Brexit, it is important to start the day with a good meal".
--------------------
I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Not that it matters, since Obama has helpfully holed the Leave boat below the waterline, and Boris and Nigel can re-arrange the deckchairs as much as they like (probably into 'whites only' and 'coloureds' areas): their ship is still sinking.
Never underestimate the power of ignorance or xenophobia.
--------------------
I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
|
Posted
Today I decided to take a peep at this thread! I had avoided it before, because I feel very strongly that we should remain in the EU and I might have put my blood pressure up by reading the views of those who want to leave!
However, I have read this last page and the previous one and it looks as if I've been missing a very interesting topic.
My local MP, although an excellent chap mostly, is, for leaving! *pause to give a loud 'tut'*. Next week there is a head-to-head meeting between Vince Cable and him. Two of my neighbours and I are going to be there, and I for one will be heckling whenever necessary!
If I hear anyone saying, as I heard a member of the audience say on one of the question Time programmes recently, in a very emotionally charged voice, 'I just want my country back,' ... well, I might just have to jump up on my chair!! ![[Smile]](smile.gif) (
--------------------
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Posts: 3083 | From: UK | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
|
Posted
SusanDoris, this must be the first time you and I have ever been in agreement on these boards. ![[Yipee]](graemlins/spin.gif)
--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
SusanDoris, this must be the first time you and I have ever been in agreement on these boards.
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif) I particularly liked your long post on page 16!
Do you agree that so many of those who want to leave focus on one particular, usually - in my opinion! - minor, peeve about the EU and appear not to look at the whole picture? In some ways I think that old people over 80 - and that includes me of course!! - should stay away from voting as we'll be dead in the not too distant future and the young have lived their whole ives within the EU so their opinion is more important. Mind you, I suppose this has already been mentioned earlier in the topic. Hmm, perhaps I might try and go through from the beginning...
--------------------
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Posts: 3083 | From: UK | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Breaking news. If you are a Brexit supporter, you have just won a really big name to your side, though one without a vote in the referendum. Donald Trump agrees with you.
Apparently, on hearing this, Stephen Mangan has tweeted "now backed by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Nigel Farage, George Galloway, Marine Le Pen and Katie Hopkins".
I'm really wondering what it's like to be a mainstream left-wing Leave supporter these days, when you see the long list of authoritarian and xenophobic crackpots who are lining up to support that position.
I say "mainstream left-wing", because I know there are people in the nuttier corners of the Left who are convinced that the EU is just an American plot to control Europe(Thatcher apparently didn't get the memo on that) and harass St. Putin, and consider Trump at worst a harmless eccentric who's being demonized for no other reason than that he opposes certain trade-deals.
Basically, the most lumpen elements of the anti-globalization movement, vulnerable to the appeals of petty nationalism put forth by guys like Putin and(though he doesn't occupy the same heroic status), Trump. Some of these guys have recently come around to the opinion(propogated by Putin and others) that the refugee crisis is just another American conspiracy, aimed at bankrupting the European welfare state. (Which is different from arguing that the American-led Iraq War was the root cause of the refugee crisis).
Are these the kind of left-wingers I hear about as being Brexit supportes in the UK? Bascially, Nigel Farage with a deeper hatred of the US?
Or are they actually more mainstream left-wingers, maybe of the Kinnock variety(not saying he's pro-Brexit, just an example of mainstream leftism), with non-feverish reasons for thinking the EU has been bad for Britain, and no desire to venerate Putin or excuse Trump?
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
|
Posted
Coincidentally, I just found this, exemplifying the tendencies described in my last post.
The website is ostensibly left-wing, but will pretty much publish anyone, anywhere on the political specturm, who says that the US is bad. The writer, Paul Craig Roberts, is an old Reagan crony who now tirades against noe-con foreign policies, while still defending his old boss' record in Central America(!).
The article raises some interesting history, though his source is the Telegraph, and I think he makes a considerable leap from saying that the US supported greater European integration to saying that the EU is "a creature of the CIA".
Roberts also thinks that the Sandy Hook massacre was a false-flag to justify taking away the right to bear arms, and that the county clerk in Kentucky who was jailed for refusing to perform same-sex marriages was a victim of the Amerikan police state.
--------------------
I have the power...Lucifer is lord!
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
dyfrig
Blue Scarfed Menace
# 15
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
his source is the Telegraph
[/QB]
Perhaps he can work that esteemed organ 's reporting of how Victoria Beckham's mic was turned down during Soice Girls performances into his conspiracy theories.
--------------------
"He was wrong in the long run, but then, who isn't?" - Tony Judt
Posts: 6917 | From: pob dydd Iau, am hanner dydd | Registered: Apr 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
Stetson: Or are they actually more mainstream left-wingers
You're poisoning the well against the left quite a lot in your post.
It is very much possible to be mainstream left-wing and to be very critical about the EU. Anti-globalism may be a part of that, or a general feeling that the EU is too much about big businesses and banks. And no, not all people who are critical about the EU are staunch nationalists, even if the media or politicians want to frame it that way.
Those people do find themselves in a bit of a bind right now: they're critical of the EU, but they also feel that the current reasons for leaving are the wrong ones: selfishness and anti-immigrant rhetoric. Therefore, sometimes they suddenly are in a position where they find themselves defending the EU.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by SusanDoris:
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
SusanDoris, this must be the first time you and I have ever been in agreement on these boards.
I particularly liked your long post on page 16!
Do you agree that so many of those who want to leave focus on one particular, usually - in my opinion! - minor, peeve about the EU and appear not to look at the whole picture? In some ways I think that old people over 80 - and that includes me of course!! - should stay away from voting as we'll be dead in the not too distant future and the young have lived their whole ives within the EU so their opinion is more important. Mind you, I suppose this has already been mentioned earlier in the topic. Hmm, perhaps I might try and go through from the beginning...
Thank you for the compliment.
Mind, I'm not that young, and I'm not going to abstain. I intend to vote to remain.
--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Mind, I'm not that young, and I'm not going to abstain. I intend to vote to remain.
Oh, yes, most definitely - so do I!
--------------------
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Posts: 3083 | From: UK | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
It is very much possible to be mainstream left-wing and to be very critical about the EU.
Regardless of being left or right wing, it's possible to be very critical about the EU and still consider that it's better for the UK to be in rather than out. There's a big difference between being critical and being opposed.
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
|
Posted
Sorry if it's been said, but you could tell that the EU was continuing to evolve in the right direction when the Murdoch empire raged 'UP YOURS DELORS' because of the incipient Social Chapter.
--------------------
Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
Alan Cresswell: Regardless of being left or right wing, it's possible to be very critical about the EU and still consider that it's better for the UK to be in rather than out. There's a big difference between being critical and being opposed.
Um yes of course, I was trying to be careful about my wording.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Stetson: Or are they actually more mainstream left-wingers
You're poisoning the well against the left quite a lot in your post.
Sorry, wasn't my intention. I'm left-wing myself, so no, I wasn't trying to tarnish them all as being some version of Crazy.
Personally, while I was aware that at one time there had been some opposition to greater integration from the left, my impression since about the early 90s has been that, in the UK anyway, the Tories were more or less hostile to Europe, and Labour more or less amicable, with the correlation breaking down a bit on the far left of Labour, and points leftward from that.
And, to the extent that people like Cameron have moved away from an anti-Europe stance, it's a case of them having abandoned the traditional conservative policy(like Labour PMs who support staying in NATO, though I realize that was originally a Labour policy.)
The rest of your post seems to indicate that that there are indeed people on the left who oppose the EU for the usual left-wing reasons, so thank you for that analysis.
I will observe that, to the extent that something can be judged by who opposes it the most, the EU comes out looking pretty good, from a left-wing point of view. I do have to wonder if it's just a coincidence that the most prominent figures coming forward in favour of Brexit are the ones worked up about immigration and "politically correct eurocrats".
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
his source is the Telegraph
Perhaps he can work that esteemed organ 's reporting of how Victoria Beckham's mic was turned down during Soice Girls performances into his conspiracy theories. [/QB]
"It's intolerable for the American Empire to have a musical group so brazenly displaying the ethos and symbolism of an independent United Kingdom. Given the US government's history of harassing outspoken foreign artists(eg. the deportation orders against John Lennon), it's reasonable to conclude that the decision to denigrate Victoria Beckham's musical talent by turning off her microphone during performances, and later blackmail her into admitting it publically, originated in Washington."
[ 07. May 2016, 09:44: Message edited by: Stetson ]
--------------------
I have the power...Lucifer is lord!
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
Stetson: Personally, while I was aware that at one time there had been some opposition to greater integration from the left, my impression since about the early 90s has been that, in the UK anyway, the Tories were more or less hostile to Europe, and Labour more or less amicable, with the correlation breaking down a bit on the far left of Labour, and points leftward from that.
My impression is mostly based on continental Europe, but I think it parallels the UK closely:- Far right: knee-jerk anti-EU.
- Centre-right: divided. Secretly pro-EU because they know it's good for business but they also don't want to lose voters to the far right.
- Centre-left: moderately to strongly pro-EU. They feel that some problems (labour, environment) are best resolved supra-nationally, and/or that the EU can be reformed from the inside.
- Far left: anti-EU, mostly for anti-globalist reasons.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Stetson: Personally, while I was aware that at one time there had been some opposition to greater integration from the left, my impression since about the early 90s has been that, in the UK anyway, the Tories were more or less hostile to Europe, and Labour more or less amicable, with the correlation breaking down a bit on the far left of Labour, and points leftward from that.
My impression is mostly based on continental Europe, but I think it parallels the UK closely:- Far right: knee-jerk anti-EU.
- Centre-right: divided. Secretly pro-EU because they know it's good for business but they also don't want to lose voters to the far right.
- Centre-left: moderately to strongly pro-EU. They feel that some problems (labour, environment) are best resolved supra-nationally, and/or that the EU can be reformed from the inside.
- Far left: anti-EU, mostly for anti-globalist reasons.
Yep, that's exactly my interpretation as well.
Like I say, I think the centre-right view is roughly analagous to the centre-left's support for NATO(especially post- Cold War): "Well, okay, it's not the kind of thing we'd normally be crazy about, and maybe thirty years ago we could have gotten rid of it, but right now it's the only game in town, so no point chucking it out just on some abstract principle".
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Gove is, like most of the "Leave" advocates, just wishing and hoping (as Dusty used to sing).
As a Remainer, I have now joined the wishing and hoping brigade.
I was at a discussion group this evening where an excellent vicar of my acquaintance observed thuswise.
"Cameron must be wetting himself. He expected to be in a coalition government which would block the Tory referendum commitment. So he's on a playing field he didn't bargain for.
Twice running now, he's committed life-changing constitutional decisions to crude referendum choices. He got lucky the first time. I'm not so sure about this one. I reckon this one will be very close."
Maybe the Scots will save us? Or the prospect of Boris? Boris in No 10 plus the Donald in the White House? The Perfect (Bad Hair) Storm?
Even so, come quickly, Lord Jesus.
--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Michael Gove states that George Osborne is wrong to allege that Germany will put up trade barriers such as tariffs if the UK opts to leave the EU. I think Gove misses the point: It wouldn't be up to Germany, or any other member state. The single market is the single market, and if you are in you are in, and if you are out you are out. Osborne isn't a deep thinker (FWIW I think Gove is smarter) but he is right here and Gove is, like most of the "Leave" advocates, just wishing and hoping (as Dusty used to sing).
Very true. No-one needs to actively "put up" barriers, some will just happen automatically as a result of no longer fitting within the same category.
--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Sorry to back up to a discussion on the 20th March about NZ and other Commonwealth countries in relation to UK/EU. Cod had been arguing that the UK entry into the EU had been bad for exports from NZ and other Commonwealth countries. This is just a part of the ensuing discussion:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Something very similar has happened with trade: the UK has vanished behind the EU-wide tariff wall and that undoutably has reduced trade between the UK and its former colonies (not to mention other countries). The claim that leaving the EU will be detrimental to British trade seems incomplete without taking this factor into account. To put it bluntly, the EU, in trading terms, is hostile to countries beyond its borders particularly when it comes to agricultural produce, which subsidised EU producers dump on world markets.
I'm coming back to this because Malcolm Turnball has been expressing his opinions, very diplomatically that the UK has the right to decide, but quote:
The EU is an enormous economic and political entity and from our point of view - you might say from our selfish point of view - having a country to whom we have close ties and such strong relationships... is definitely an advantage.
So if the British people, in their wisdom, decide to stay in the European Union, then we would welcome that
John Key has also made similar statements recently (although that BBC article doesn't link to them).
Of course, in a democracy the residents of NZ and Australia are free to disagree with their respective PMs.
Hi Alan,
I can't comment on Malcolm Turnbull. It may be that Bremain would assist Australian trade with the EU (although I'm not sure what Australia exports to it).
As for John Key, the cynic in me comments that his public utterances on foreign affairs tend to be deliberately bland: he tries not to upset anyone on such matters because that might be bad for trade. I expect that if the UK did leave the EU (and I note here that I have a vote, and I currently intend to vote for leave) Key would say that he welcomed the UK's decision and looked forward to a "new" (ie, fairer) trade deal.
It doesn't follow that British entry into the EEC wasn't bad for this country. In fact it was very bad: it went through a prolonged period of economic uncertainty in the 80s and 90s. Now, although things are far more stable than they were, it is far less wealthy than most developed countries and hardship is becoming more apparent. NZ's exports, which are mostly agricultural, just don't earn enough money and EU subsidies and tariffs do not help.
The comments on this article, although not well-informed, probably reflect the local view better.
--------------------
"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
|
Posted
When listening to Christine Lagarde (World Bank) and others opining about Brexit and predicting that it will result in financial meltdown for the UK, I'm deeply puzzled.
Are these the same luminaries who decreed that the UK had to join the ERM to give it financial stability through being allied to other European currencies? If so, what about Black Wednesday?
The same people who predicted that the UK not joining the Euro would mean the UK becoming second-rate economically to the countries in the Eurozone, with greater financial instability and more likelihood of boom-and-bust? That forecast was so precient it left the UK stranded while the rest of the Eurozone sailed into financial heaven - NOT.
And of course, the drones at the World Bank, Fed, etc, etc, etc, all saw the 2007-8 banking meltdown coming so were able to warn about it and so prevent meltdown in smaller, more fragile economies such as Ireland, Iceland, Greece, etc.
As for the esteemed economists who predict doom and gloom, I'm reminded of the 364 academic economists who rubbished Geoffrey Howe's budget in 1981 and were proved so wrong it was almost funny. As Lord Howe said, you could sum up an economist as being a man who knows 364 ways of making love, but doesn’t know any women.
--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
| IP: Logged
|
|
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
|
Posted
As with ANYTHING discussed on SOF, it's got NOTHING to do with facts.
It's about disposition.
Lord Howe said that?! Kudos!
--------------------
Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
When listening to Christine Lagarde (World Bank) and others opining about Brexit and predicting that it will result in financial meltdown for the UK, I'm deeply puzzled.
I'm not puzzled one bit. Lagarde and others don't know what Brexit would bring and that uncertainty is enough. I am confident that every indicator regarding the UK economy (and many others besides) will go down should the UK vote to leave. I'm sure hedge fund mangers have this in mind.
quote:
And of course, the drones at the World Bank, Fed, etc, etc, etc, all saw the 2007-8 banking meltdown coming so were able to warn about it and so prevent meltdown in smaller, more fragile economies such as Ireland, Iceland, Greece, etc.
I don't think the "drones" gave a toss about smaller economies or the possibility of a recession that turned into a depression.
quote:
As for the esteemed economists who predict doom and gloom, I'm reminded of the 364 academic economists who rubbished Geoffrey Howe's budget in 1981 and were proved so wrong it was almost funny. As Lord Howe said, you could sum up an economist as being a man who knows 364 ways of making love, but doesn’t know any women.
See top paragraph. It's the uncertainty that will be damaging. Whichever way the vote goes the government won't be the same after the vote, and an exit vote will result in at least two years of tortured negotiations.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
|
Posted
Still just struggling this whole Referendum.
We,re hear a whole range of negatives from ... The economy will crash to the outbreak of war to -- oh well, it's going to take years to undo our membership so why bother.
Why bother indeed, why bother to allow the public to vote on something we're constantly being told is an open an shut case?
--------------------
Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
| IP: Logged
|
|
alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It doesn't follow that British entry into the EEC wasn't bad for this country. In fact it was very bad: it went through a prolonged period of economic uncertainty in the 80s and 90s. Now, although things are far more stable than they were, it is far less wealthy than most developed countries and hardship is becoming more apparent.
Sorry, how many developed countries do you think there are?
There is a lot wrong with the UK economy. We have a major issue with productivity. The level of inequality in our country is nothing short of shameful. It is outrageous how much hardship exists and I do not think we are necessarily an economic success story. However, if you want to argue that the UK is worse off because of the EEC/EC/EU, then you need to start with some facts.
AFZ
--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It doesn't follow that British entry into the EEC wasn't bad for this country. In fact it was very bad: it went through a prolonged period of economic uncertainty in the 80s and 90s. Now, although things are far more stable than they were, it is far less wealthy than most developed countries and hardship is becoming more apparent.
Sorry, how many developed countries do you think there are?
On that list, NZ is ranked 56, with only a few generally recognised developed nations like Luxembourg and Iceland below it - which certainly fits "is far less wealthy than most developed countries". Though that list is a little bit misleading since it is total GDP, so will always bias towards large nations. Rank per capita and NZ comes in at around 30, not too dissimilar to countries like Japan and the UK, and significantly above the poorer countries in the EU.
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
|
Posted
Latest Polls:
YouGov – Remain 42%, Leave 40%
ICM – Remain 44%, Leave 46%
I think we can assume that the leave vote is more committed, and the polls may well be understating the leave vote. (The leave vote tends to correlate with the Tory vote, which is notoriously understated.)
Unless the remain campaign are keeping the powder dry and have something truly game-changing planned, we're heading for the exit.
All Cameron's fault. Did he really think he could win this, given the instinctive xenophobia of the British public, and our wretched newspapers?
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
| IP: Logged
|
|
rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Unless the remain campaign are keeping the powder dry and have something truly game-changing planned, we're heading for the exit.
All Cameron's fault. Did he really think he could win this, given the instinctive xenophobia of the British public, and our wretched newspapers?
Didn't realise the polls have it neck and neck.
My guess is the remain camp will, in the last days before June 23rd, make every effort to get the contented 'stay-at-homers' to a polling station. People who have cosy lives will be convinced those lifestyles will be in dire peril if the UK leaves the EU.
If the unthinkable happens and the Electorate votes leave, Mr C will look back and deliberate as to whether calling a Referendum in order to stifle UKIP at the last election was such a good idea. At the time he couldn't have foreseen the refugee crisis. "Events dear boy, events" as one of his predecessors once said.
--------------------
Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Didn't realise the polls have it neck and neck.
They may be, or they may not be - depends on which polls are being reported (and obviously the media could be being selective here). In general I find it more useful to look at the bookies, as they actually have skin in the game:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
Which indicates that Leave still has it.
quote:
If the unthinkable happens and the Electorate votes leave, Mr C will look back and deliberate as to whether calling a Referendum in order to stifle UKIP at the last election was such a good idea.
Well, he - and the Tory party as a whole - were willing to use the issue of EU membership as a proxy for the far more important issue of who leads the Tory party.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Well, he - and the Tory party as a whole - were willing to use the issue of EU membership as a proxy for the far more important issue of who leads the Tory party.
Don't you have that the wrong way round? EU membership is something that the country has worked on and invested in for 40 years and more, it is something that affects the whole nation for decades ahead. Compared to that the internal disputes within the Tory party are small beer.
But, Cameron decided to gamble the future of the nation for a few years peace and quiet within the Tory Party. Which, whatever way the vote goes, will only be a temporary cease fire over the issue. Someone who puts the interests of their political party above those of the nation does not deserve political office, much less be Prime Minister.
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... But, Cameron decided to gamble the future of the nation for a few years peace and quiet within the Tory Party. Which, whatever way the vote goes, will only be a temporary cease fire over the issue. Someone who puts the interests of their political party above those of the nation does not deserve political office, much less be Prime Minister.
Very fair comment, but of how many political leaders has that not been true over the years. Ramsay MacDonald was the last one to put his country before his party, and look where his mythological status has been in his party ever since.
The other really depressing thing is that there isn't any potentially more impressive looking potential prime minister anywhere else, not in his party and not in any of the others. Osborne, not very exciting, May, unlikely on health grounds, Johnson, Gove, Grayling, the stomach heaves at the thought of any of them. Corbyn certainly isn't PM material, but nor were any of the others he beat in their leadership election. Farron, untested and hardly known with a tiny party, and Robertson - who? you may well ask.
--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
|
Posted
Alan,
I think NZ's apparently high ranking has probably more to do with the artificially high exchange rate the NZ dollar currently has (this in turn is due in part to the high OCR). If you have lived in both countries (as I have) medical funding, funding for schools, social security spending and various other things are far, far more generous in the UK than in NZ.
Alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
There is a lot wrong with the UK economy. We have a major issue with productivity. The level of inequality in our country is nothing short of shameful. It is outrageous how much hardship exists and I do not think we are necessarily an economic success story. However, if you want to argue that the UK is worse off because of the EEC/EC/EU, then you need to start with some facts.
AFZ
Epic fail there by you.
--------------------
"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
|
Posted
Cod, please read what you wrote, then what I wrote and try again.
The UK is very wealthy. I think there's a lot that could be better. But you paint the UK as virtually 3rd world and then say the EU is holding us back. The first part is wrong the second is an unsupported assertion.
Wanna try again?
AFZ
--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
|
Posted
The big UK economic problems in the 1980s and 1990s were the failure of big industries - coal mining, steel making, ship building, that's what depressed and destroyed the northern communities (and Cornwall and Wales). How much of that was Thatcher's decisions to destroy the unions and how much was external pressures is moot. Another article discussing Thatcher's influence and the lack of leading Northern MPs. This is a 2014 article (Guardian) comparing England's north-east to Detroit.
I did teaching practices in Hetton and Sunderland in the 1990s, as the EDRF funding was rebuilding Sunderland, but not Hetton (mentioned in one of the articles). As I mentioned in Hell, it was EU funding, the ERDF, which rebuilt much of Sunderland and the Eden Project in Cornwall.
I haven't been back to Sunderland recently, but I've been to Middlesbrough in the last year and it's depressed. The atmosphere in those north-eastern towns is very different to that of the south-east, even the bigger ones, and struggling worse than when I lived in the regoin in the 1990s.
--------------------
Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
| IP: Logged
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
There is still quite a bit of Regional Development Fund money, and other EU sourced funds, being invested in the UK - in northern England (both sides of the Pennines), Cornwall, Wales, Scotland and NI. Of course it's a lot less than in the 80s and 90s when these areas were significantly depressed, with economies well below the European average. These funds get used for infrastructure support, help for small and medium enterprises, heritage and culture, environmental projects.
The UK in the past has benefited considerably from European programmes - in addition to direct funding, a lot of unemployed UK people found employment in the rest of Europe when there were no jobs in large parts of the country. The UK economy has recovered from the worst of the 80s and 90s, although there are still regions where the recovery has not been as strong, and generally our need for support from the EU is less.
But, it seems distinctly un-British to accept all that help from the EU in the past, and then to bail out of the EU because we're no longer a net recipient of EU support. It isn't right that so many UK people found work in the EU in the 80s and 90s when there were no jobs here, but then object to other people in the EU finding work here now that the situation is reversed.
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Didn't realise the polls have it neck and neck.
They may be, or they may not be - depends on which polls are being reported (and obviously the media could be being selective here). In general I find it more useful to look at the bookies, as they actually have skin in the game:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
Which indicates that Leave still has it.
The polls quoted were lifted from ukpollingreport.co.uk, which is run by Anthony Wells of YouGov in his spare time and is probably the closest thing we have to an impartial political blog. He posts and analyses polling data from his own organisation and others. Comments are (usually) restricted to non-partisan discussion of these polls.
As for the bookies...their odds only reflect what people are betting on, and they don't always bet how they're going to vote. Speaking for myself, I won a tidy sum last year by betting on a Tory majority, though this certainly wasn't the result I wanted. It was a nice consolation though! Anecdotal evidence suggests that this sort of "hedging" is becoming a thing.
Scepticism about polling is understandable, given recent experience, but it does not give the remain campaign any grounds for complacency. I think the "leave" vote may be significantly under-represented.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
In general I find it more useful to look at the bookies, as they actually have skin in the game:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
Which indicates that Leave still has it.
Are we looking at the same page? I see the bookies offering 1/3 for remain and more than 2/1 for leave. Which means (ish) the bookies think Brexit has a probability of roughly 1/3. (ie. Remain has it by a nose.)
While bookies do have a dog in the fight the odds have to reflect where the bets are placed, which will be show something like the odds quoted if more money has been placed to leave than to remain (a *lot* more in a two-horse race!). Perhaps Brexit supporters are more inclined to bet?
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
If Johnson comparing the EU to the Nazis doesn't destroy the remaining credibility of the Leave campaign then I don't understand the country anymore.
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
|
Posted
I think Brexit support is the UK equivalent of Trump support, Alan. Political opportunists sloganising and playing on fears. Bad hair seems to help as well.
BTW, do you know the Schumann Declaration, which paved the way for the founding of the E.U.? Boris clearly does not. But the one thing we learn from history is that people do not learn from history. And are therefore condemned to repeat it.
quote:
We are called to bethink ourselves of the Christian basics of Europe by forming a democratic model of governance which through reconciliation develops into a community of peoples in freedom, equality, solidarity and peace and which is deeply rooted in Christian basic values. (Schuman Declaration)
[ 15. May 2016, 13:29: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Scepticism about polling is understandable, given recent experience, but it does not give the remain campaign any grounds for complacency. I think the "leave" vote may be significantly under-represented. [/QB]
Not sure if Johson's been too wise in bringing you-no-who's name into the debate. Cameron will throw it back at him for sure.
Come June 23, what could upset the apple cart is if fired-up 'leavers' turn up at polling booths who don't normally get out to vote, while cosy 'remainers' stay in the chair.
Also if the remain campaign insists on continuing to plough it's negative rut then there's a real possibility that remainers will switch and say You know what? I'm gonna do the opposite
Call it the Boatie McBoatie factor. Underestimate a combination of mischief and anti-establishment feeling at your peril.
--------------------
Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Are we looking at the same page? I see the bookies offering 1/3 for remain and more than 2/1 for leave. Which means (ish) the bookies think Brexit has a probability of roughly 1/3. (ie. Remain has it by a nose.)
You are absolutely correct, Remain has it by a reasonable margin. Furthermore, contra Rocinate above - the majority of the best are placed are on 'Leave' - which would actually have the effect of making the margin *less* than it should be.
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Don't you have that the wrong way round? EU membership is something that the country has worked on and invested in for 40 years and more, it is something that affects the whole nation for decades ahead. Compared to that the internal disputes within the Tory party are small beer.
Sorry Alan - I was being somewhat tongue in cheek, my comment was meant to be a reflection on the way this is actually being fought out by the Tory party.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
Contact us | Ship of Fools | Privacy statement
© Ship of Fools 2016
UBB.classicTM
6.5.0
|
|
|
|
|
| |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
Printer-friendly view
