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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: In, out, in, out; EU Referendum thread.
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
I'm still going with a Cameron resignation followed by a General Election. He can't survive a Black Friday, surely
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by ThunderBunk:
The thunderous crack is the sound of a resentful country shooting itself in the foot.
And not having the NHS to tend to it.
How can people be so stupid?
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Is it time to start the 2nd Scottish independence referendum thread yet?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Sipech
Shipmate
# 16870
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Posted
A shameful day.
A day motivated by fear of The Other.
A country riven.
A union torn.
We're going over the edge of the abyss, where there is weeping and gnashing of teeth.
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I try to be self-deprecating; I'm just not very good at it.
Twitter: http://twitter.com/TheAlethiophile
Posts: 3791 | From: On the corporate ladder | Registered: Jan 2012
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
Welcome to Stupidland. We'd help you but we haven't really figured out how to navigate it ourselves.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
mr cheesy you have it in one. Both posts. The coming monster Bear market will throw an enormous X factor into all political and economic issues.
Independence Day? Don't make me laugh. The sovereignty myth is about to come home to roost. Where is my 'Don't blame me, I voted Remain' car sticker?
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Cathscats
Shipmate
# 17827
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Posted
This is bad. This is so very bad, I can hardly believe it. Harder to believe in places like here, where the campaigning scarcely touched us, where no posters littered our streets, and so where and we could not really believe people would be so short sighted. Off to open the church for prayer.
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"...damp hands and theological doubts - the two always seem to go together..." (O. Douglas, "The Setons")
Posts: 176 | From: Central Highlands | Registered: Sep 2013
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The Rogue
Shipmate
# 2275
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Posted
So the voting country disagreed with me. Ho hum; it's not the first time. Let's just get on with it and make sure that the disadvantaged aren't disadvantaged even more. But that's a separate topic for discussion.
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If everyone starts thinking outside the box does outside the box come back inside?
Posts: 2507 | From: Toton | Registered: Feb 2002
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by The Rogue:
So the voting country disagreed with me. Ho hum; it's not the first time.
It isn't that they disagreed, it is that it was from ignorance and fear and those will not dissapate with these results.
quote:
Let's just get on with it and make sure that the disadvantaged aren't disadvantaged even more. But that's a separate topic for discussion.
Good luck with that. Those who will now feel they have a mandate have no interest in helping any disadvantaged.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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anoesis
Shipmate
# 14189
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Posted
Well, if I were in the UK right now it would be my birthday today. Last year on my birthday both my husband's grandparents died and I had the final appointment of a root canal done (and handed over nearly a thousand dollars for the pleasure). This is, obviously, worse.
So yeah, from the other side of the world, I am so, so, sorry. I'm also really conflicted and confused as to why I feel this way. One the one hand, I am technically a British citizen, despite not being born there or ever having resided there for longer than a few months at a stretch. On the other hand, I certainly don't consider myself a British citizen on a day-to-day basis. My place is here. So I'm feeling like I also need to say sorry to Mousethief and all his compatriots for the shitstorm going down in their country right now, about which I have been content to shake my head and say, 'Well, they're all as mad as a sack of badgers'*, without really feeling anything at all about the whole thing.
And what does it feel like? I've been pondering that one. Here's what it feels like - and it won't transfer across any ponds. It's like watching the minutes of the clock ebb away, as we lose. To France. At a Rugby World Cup. Again. But in this case there's no 'in four year's time' to turn our eyes toward.
*Trump supporters
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The history of humanity give one little hope that strength left to its own devices won't be abused. Indeed, it gives one little ground to think that strength would continue to exist if it were not abused. -- Dafyd --
Posts: 993 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Oct 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Suggestions are that EU leaders will push the UK to leave quickly.
The process will be one of uncertainty, and uncertainty is bad for everyone. If the EU gets the process to be as fast as possible that reaches a conclusion that would be good for the EU. And, the EU holds all the cards, they could easily state terms and say "take it or leave it". That deal will be the best possible for the EU (which is also going to be weakened by Brexit). The UK is screwed anyway.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
What happens if Nissan win their court case, and some of the Leave literature is judged to have illegally and misleadingly used the Nissan logo? There would presumably be cases that could be made that some of the other prominent Leave campaign material was deliberately misleading (that number on the side of the bus for a start). If the electoral commission rules that some of the Leave literature was misleading, could they call the result void?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by The Rogue:
So the voting country disagreed with me. Ho hum; it's not the first time. Let's just get on with it and make sure that the disadvantaged aren't disadvantaged even more. But that's a separate topic for discussion.
Aye The Rogue.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
How soon could the Scots press for another go? The EU-UK discussions will be complicated enough on their own.
Surely a negotiation between all three where the UK is leaving the EU, while Scotland tries to leave the UK and simultaneously tries to rejoin the EU would be completely impossible. Nobody would know who was asking for and getting what.
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I'm still going with a Cameron resignation followed by a General Election. He can't survive a Black Friday, surely
I don't believe any PM has failed to judge the mood of the Country so spectacularly since Churchill lost the Post War General Election.
This is a political earthquake. Only Ed Milliband has so far managed to analyse this outcome correctly. Half way through the night when it became obvious Leave were out performing expectations he said --- This thing has been building for a very long time.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
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Posted
this is a sad day indeed. That ghastly Farrage and his triumphalism. Yuk. However, I'm going to try not to think about it while I'm away, although I think it's going to be difficult. *deep sighs*
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I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Posts: 3083 | From: UK | Registered: May 2007
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Charles Had a Splurge on
Shipmate
# 14140
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Posted
“They are ringing their bells now, before long they will be wringing their hands.”
Robert Walpole
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"But to live outside the law, you must be honest" R.A. Zimmerman
Posts: 224 | From: What used to be Berkshire | Registered: Sep 2008
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
Looking at the response from 'EU Leaders' I'm left gobsmacked that they still "Just don't get it", as the children would say.
Vote Remain lined up a seemingly endless parade of the international great-and-good to speak in their support on the subject of the UK being in or out: the trouble was (is?) that the Great British Public has two natural reactions to being lectured on what they perceive to be their own domestic concerns by outsiders: (1) Resentment, and (2) A bloody-minded determination to do the exact opposite of whatever it is they're being exhorted to do.
Now Frau Merkel, Mr Juncker et al (or at least the Eurocrats who speak in their names) are at it again, threatening the collapse of the UK economy, etc, etc, etc. It seems they don't realise that Joe Bloggs is likely to interpret this as a dog-in-the-manger exercise in foot-stamping and pique that their earlier pronouncements didn't bring them the "correct" result.
Whether or not one agrees with the outcome of the Referendum is irrelevant: the electorate has made its choice and the EU would be wise if they just shut up and got on with the negotiations, rather than giving us a fine display of those (to Brits) unattractive and undemocratic tendencies which were likely a factor in the Leave campaign winning in the first place.
The financial markets will recover: and while they take their time a lower UK pound makes our exports more attractive to the wider world beyond the EU - so hardly a downside.
The next POTUS won't talk to the UK? Well, if that POTUS is D Trump (as isn't beyond the realms of possibility) is that really going to be such a bad thing?
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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Humble Servant
Shipmate
# 18391
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Posted
And already the promises start to break. They won't be spending an extra £350 million a week on the NHS after all. Quelle surprise!
Posts: 241 | Registered: Apr 2015
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Fear not SusanDoris. All glory is fleeting.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Kittyville
Shipmate
# 16106
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Posted
Having watched the coverage all day, I find myself genuinely gobsmacked by what I have seen and heard. I really didn't see this coming. I expected it to be close, but ultimately with a narrow win for Remain. It seemed inconceivable to me that the British would do this to themselves.
That said, from the little I saw while I was in London for a week during the campaign, the Remain camp underperformed significantly. It should've been relatively straightforward to counter the farrago of nonsense, bigotry and outright lies from Leave - and yet, Remain seemed to continually miss the trick.
An astonishing day - but not in any good way.
Posts: 291 | From: Sydney | Registered: Dec 2010
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
How soon could the Scots press for another go?
In theory, the Scottish Government could put a bill to Holyrood almost immediately. But, that's not going to happen. The people of Scotland are voted out - we've had four elections in just over 18 months, that's the best part of 2 years of constant electioneering. It would also make sense to wait until the negotiating positions between the UK and the EU are defined (at present the Leave campaign have presented a bunch of mutually exclusive positions), at which point the markets will have settled a bit. Also, find out how long it will take for the exit negotiations to take - if it takes much more than 2 years then an Independence referendum prior to Brexit is possible, a two year process and it may be a case of a referendum after Brexit and then Scotland rejoining the EU.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Whether or not one agrees with the outcome of the Referendum is irrelevant: the electorate has made its choice and the EU would be wise if they just shut up and got on with the negotiations, rather than giving us a fine display of those (to Brits) unattractive and undemocratic tendencies which were likely a factor in the Leave campaign winning in the first place.
You are completely missing the point. Their comments are not directed at UK citizens; they don't want any other countries following suit.
It's the blithe disregard for how all this affects the rest of Europe that gets me the most.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Now Frau Merkel, Mr Juncker et al (or at least the Eurocrats who speak in their names) are at it again, threatening the collapse of the UK economy, etc, etc, etc. It seems they don't realise that Joe Bloggs is likely to interpret this as a dog-in-the-manger exercise in foot-stamping and pique that their earlier pronouncements didn't bring them the "correct" result.
The whole problem is that you can't negotiate or allow for stupid. Nobody thought that the British electorate was bloody-minded enough to vote in their own worst interests.
Anyway, I think the reality is that Juncker is not really talking to the British any more, his recent comments have been aimed at the leaders and people of the other EU countries. He can't afford to look weak and he doesn't want the contagion to spread.
quote:
Whether or not one agrees with the outcome of the Referendum is irrelevant: the electorate has made its choice and the EU would be wise if they just shut up and got on with the negotiations, rather than giving us a fine display of those (to Brits) unattractive and undemocratic tendencies which were likely a factor in the Leave campaign winning in the first place.
I think they already have fired the starting gun on the "negotiations". Truth is: there will be no negotiating. The Brits will be shown the door by the EU and will be firmly told that they'll take what they're given. This whole notion that the UK can negotiate from a position of strength always looked like a lie, and in a situation with a sharp downturn cum instant recession that's even less ltrue.
quote:
The financial markets will recover: and while they take their time a lower UK pound makes our exports more attractive to the wider world beyond the EU - so hardly a downside.
The problem is volatility not the devaluing itself. Yes, British exports such as they are become cheaper - but then against that is the uncertainty, the political upheaval, the ongoing potential problems with the biggest export market and so on.
Saying that things will bounce quickly back is a statement of faith not fact. And one that looks to most experts I'm hearing as something that is impossible to predict.
quote:
The next POTUS won't talk to the UK? Well, if that POTUS is D Trump (as isn't beyond the realms of possibility) is that really going to be such a bad thing?
Lost for words..
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arse
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
It's going to be a bloody process, I believe that leave won the vote on the immigration issue - it is difficult to see how the government can limit immigration without leaving the common market. I don't think the EU will let them stay without free movement of labour. But if we do that, then those voting leave on the basis of immigration will feel hugely betrayed.
If we leave the common market it is going to take some serious economic readjustment.
Also I am not clear how the fall in sterling is going to affect the cost of public debt.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Truman White
Shipmate
# 17290
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
It's going to be a bloody process, I believe that leave won the vote on the immigration issue - it is difficult to see how the government can limit immigration without leaving the common market. I don't think the EU will let them stay without free movement of labour. But if we do that, then those voting leave on the basis of immigration will feel hugely betrayed.
If we leave the common market it is going to take some serious economic readjustment.
Also I am not clear how the fall in sterling is going to affect the cost of public debt.
T'other side of it, is maybe the fish in the Westminster pond will wake up to the realities of life elsewhere in the country. I see people are blaming Corbyn for not being sufficiently pro-remain. Like we can't make up our minds without our politicians telling us what to think. They just don't get it....
Posts: 476 | Registered: Aug 2012
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Terrible news.
The Boris, Nigels, Le Pens and Trumps are taking over the mad house ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Cameron has resigned - with effect from October.
Quite rightly - he caused this by calling the referendum.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
Cameron to quit, but not before a new Tory leader is chosen. So that's going to be at least 3 months before the "negotiations" can even start.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Three months for the Leave campaign to destroy itself in a civil war over the competing and mutually exclusive promises they made. A lot of blood on the carpet before someone comes out in front as the defining vision for the UK outside the EU - and then many of those who voted to leave will feel betrayed because what they voted for won't be happening.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Yes, it seems an awfully long period of uncertainty to me, prior to invoking Article 50.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
Anyone want to bet me now that there won't be a GE?
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arse
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Anyone want to bet me now that there won't be a GE?
I still don't think so, based on my earlier view that it's spectacularly not in the interests of most Tory MPs, almost any Labour MPs, or the minority parties - and their votes will be needed to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
However, go on then, £10 (more) to ZANE (Zimbabwe - A National Emergency) if there's one this year.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
I still don't think so, based on my earlier view that it's spectacularly not in the interests of most Tory MPs, almost any Labour MPs, or the minority parties - and their votes will be needed to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
As I said previously, I'm pretty sure repealing the Parliament Act isn't necessary.
To me the issue is that we now have a lame duck PM and this means negotiations simply cannot happen until there is a new Tory leader. Which can't be before October.
That's not going to be acceptable for many.
quote:
However, go on then, £10 (more) to ZANE (Zimbabwe - A National Emergency) if there's one this year.
OK well I don't bet money, so no. But it'll give me no pleasure if I'm right.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
So what actually happens now? What legitimate forum is there for hammering out how to translate the will of the people and approach Article 50 unless and until there is new political leadership in place?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Gee D
Shipmate
# 13815
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Posted
An appalling result.
As I've said before, the UK can't really expect much support from Commonwealth countries. Little consideration was given to them when the UK joined the EU. NZ in particular had severe problems after that, as did the Aust state of Tasmania. Since then the Commonwealth countries have realigned their economies as well as seek and retain other markets.
What Cameron should do is give the necessary notice to the EU, take whatever steps are now necessary to call an election, and announce that he will not be a candidate for any seat.
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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican
Posts: 7028 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
I go back to my earlier post: maybe now those people at the EU Commission and some prominent EU leaders will realise that there are some parts of the world - the UK one of them - where people like the notion of democracy being paid more than lip-service.
So they've been anxious not to bring about instability (in their eyes) in other EU countries, that is why they offered Cameron so little, that was why they then went on record saying that the little they were offering might not be given in any case, and that is why they were still talking tough this morning. Well, they've brought about Cameron's resignation...
My money is on Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart being put in charge of negotiations: neither is a pushover and Ms Stuart, in particular, won't be bamboozled.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
So what actually happens now? What legitimate forum is there for hammering out how to translate the will of the people and approach Article 50 unless and until there is new political leadership in place?
Who knows.
One thing that crossed my mind is that when there were several constitutional crises in several different Commonwealth countries, the Crown - usually represented by the Governor General - stepped in.
That would be an amazing thing, but it wouldn't be totally unprecedented.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
What happens now is that 150,000 people elect our new PM (as an example of democracy in action ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif) ) and the various positions within Brexit will try to manoeuvre their man into that position. Fortunately, not being a Tory MP, Farage is out of the running - which won't stop him yelling from the sidelines. The "forum" for defining the Brexit position will be that leadership campaign.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
Oo-er, oo-er.
Looking on with amazement from the other side of the world.
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
Does this mean another wall across the north?
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Well, they've brought about Cameron's resignation...
That is nonsense. As far as I can see the circumstances of his resignation are entirely self-inflicted.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
The stock market is plunging and the S&P AAA is apparently unsustainable.
Surely we can't wait 3 months to sort this out.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Truman White
Shipmate
# 17290
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Yes, it seems an awfully long period of uncertainty to me, prior to invoking Article 50.
Not really mate. It will take about that long for the UK Govt to get it's negotiating positions sorted out, pick its negotiating team (which will include people from outside of Government) do some deals with Euro partners who will want to make sure this process doesn't overly disadvantage them. Three months is about right.
Posts: 476 | Registered: Aug 2012
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Gee D
Shipmate
# 13815
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Posted
Mr Cheesy, Perhaps you think of here.
In 1932, the NSW State government under Jack Lang would not agree to a plan supported by the Federal Govt and those of other States to deal with the financial crisis. After Lang took steps to remove NSW funds from the reach of the Federal Govt, the State Governor - Sir Philip Game - dismissed Lang.
In 975, the Whitlam Labor Govt had been unable to have Supply passed by the Senate. Sir John Kerr, the Governor General, dismissed Whitlam.
The usual position here now is that both Game and Kerr acted improperly. Neither should have exercised the Crown's reserve powers. Both the Governor General and State Governors here are appointed by the Queen and are her viceroys.
[ 24. June 2016, 07:57: Message edited by: Gee D ]
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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican
Posts: 7028 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
The usual position here now is that both Game and Kerr acted improperly. Neither should have exercised the Crown's reserve powers. Both the Governor General and State Governors here are appointed by the Queen and are her viceroys.
I knew there had been constitutional crises in Australia but couldn't remember the details.
Also IIRC Fiji, NZ (1984, can't remember the details), Canada 2008 etc
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
posted by mr cheesy quote:
The stock market is plunging and the S&P AAA is apparently unsustainable.
Of course it is! The algorithms used by all the automated dealing systems have been primed to see a Leave vote as catastrophe so they'll bring one about by selling. What it also means is that NOW is the time to top up your Stocks & Shares ISA on the cheap, if you have the cash...
As for the S&P rating, surely you don't need reminding that almost up to the last 24 hours before RBS had to be bailed out it enjoyed an excellent reputation; and nor did the geniuses at S&P issue any warnings about Iceland or Ireland until long after it was clear that their so-called economic booms were nothing of the sort. quote:
Surely we can't wait 3 months to sort this out.
No, we can't - but we won't have to: sooner or later sanity will prevail because the intrinsic value of the companies hasn't altered significantly and it makes no sense to behave as if they have.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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