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» Ship of Fools   » Ship's Locker   » Limbo   » Purgatory: In, out, in, out; EU Referendum thread. (Page 33)

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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: In, out, in, out; EU Referendum thread.
Rocinante
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# 18541

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
=The absolute reverse is true. We will be negotiating our exit from the EU from the weakest position possible

How so? How could Britain negotiate her exit from the EU from a stronger position?
I'm not sure we could. When negotiations start, we have already committed ourselves to leaving. I'm not aware that article 50 includes any provision for calling off the negotiation and returning to membership, so we are in a position of having to take whatever we're given. And if nothing of substance is agreed after 2 years, nothing of substance is what we'll get.

The need for all members of the EU to ratify all trade agreements means that we will not be able to get anything that disadvantages any member state relative to us. The resulting treaties will be very one-sided.

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Martin60
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Well, I've sobered up and won't trot out 'turkeys voted for Xmas' again.

Barnabas62, you know you have the moral authority to influence me, that I easily defer to you, BUT [Smile] I don't like 'stupid' being applied to the insecure working class. The elite - including Corbyn and therefore me - did NOTHING to reassure them.

If they are 'stupid', turkeys, whose fault's that?

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Love wins

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Kittyville
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Yes, they showed that clip on the news here, Ariel. Along with a Leaver saying she knew Winston Churchill would be looking down from Heaven in approval. Presumably a different Winston Churchill to the one that spoke in favour of a United States of Europe.
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Stejjie
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# 13941

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quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
I genuinely can't think of a reason for the Leave campaigns, the winners, to suddenly decide it's not that urgent - unless they didn't really mean all that stuff?

That is apparently the problem.
Well, I did wonder...

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

Martin, I think the essential difference between "Builder" and "Boomer" attitudes has little to do with education and more to do with a greater self-centredness. The folks I grew up with were not self-centred and that rubbed off on me. Something I'm very grateful for.

And it is so much easier now to be informed. We, everybody, also have more free time to process that information. There is no excuse for willful ignorance.
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
If the EU does break up, it'll be largely our fault. It will probably be replaced, after a period of instability/social unrest/conflict, with something...well, very like the EU.

Yes, and one that we may have a hand in shaping the basics of, instead of coming into later, into an already established setup.
Sounds a bit like "We thought war was inevitable, so we launched missiles first".
Again, and with simple emphasis, the UK has no leverage in this.
Even if it did, first to establish terms with an entity you think will disappear is a rather ridiculous position. Rather like owning the most HMV stock or bargaining for a lower price for renting videos at Blockbuster.

quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The harshest treatment the EU could mete out is a simple refusal to negotiate over exit terms.

There is considerable room between this and the fantasy peddled by the Brexiteers. The UK has no incentive to give a country with no leverage a sweetheart deal.
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:

We still haven't faced up to how weak our position is here. We haven't "taken back control" at all - our fate will be decided by the EU.

This was obvious from the start to anyone who looked past fear.
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
It is kind of amusing, except it isn't - we've just made a momentous decision based on a tissue of lies.

Amusing, yes. These are tears of laughter, sobs of joy. Anxiety is funny, right? Like Woody Allen. Of course, he also married his daughter, so...
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
House of Cards wasn't fiction!

As fictional as Network.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Martin60
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# 368

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Yep.

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Love wins

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Random factoid of the day: my dad was one of the civil servants on the team who negotiated our entry to the common market in the 70s. I told him the bbc says the government is short of experienced trade negotiators - but he feels at 78 he's done his bit. (He also thinks brexit is a terrible decision, bucking his a demographic and geographical trend, but not any of the other trends.)

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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TurquoiseTastic

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# 8978

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One thing I am not clear on - I seem to remember an EU official saying that the Cameron renegotiation was now "null and void".

Is this the case? And does that mean that the other members of the EU are now once more committed in principle to "ever closer union"??

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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They always were, Cameron had negotiated an opt out.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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Is something being stitched up? Angela Merkel is sounding very conciliatory, saying the EU shouldn't be nasty to us or push for a speedy exit. Mind you, Frau Merkel's idea of not being nasty may differ somewhat from yours or mine...
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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I suspect they've noticed financial crash, the potentional for the breakup of the UK, and the re-emergence of civil instability of N.I. - and decided that is probably offputting enough to others without them to have to play the bad guy and look anti-demorcratic.

Plus they may have notice the reluctance to trigger article 50 and think that if they sit on his hands brexit might die a death without further intervention.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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rolyn
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# 16840

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quote:
Originally posted by Kittyville:
?....Along with a Leaver saying she knew Winston Churchill would be looking down from Heaven in approval..

Err, I think she meant Margaret Thatcher.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:

Plus they may have notice the reluctance to trigger article 50 and think that if they sit on his hands brexit might die a death without further intervention.

My sense is that there is a bit of disagreement within the EU halls of power as to how to respond. I think they're all a bit surprised at the rippled effects of the referendum and some of the leaders are reacting against the harsh words from Juncker and the other EU top bods.

The fact is that a devalued sterling is going to be doing a lot of the Brexiteers job for them: as the UK becomes a lot less attractive then young people are not going to come here looking for work. Busting a gut on an East Anglian farm isn't going to be worth the returns because a few years of work will not pay for a house in Eastern Europe any more.

At the same time, even if there is no direct and immediate push against British retired migrants in Southern Europe by national governments, a devalued pound will suddenly and profoundly affect the wallet of pensioners who are paid in sterling. When this happened before, this caused a lot of people to return to blighty and a glut of property which reduced their value.

I think all of this is playing on the minds of the EU leaders. And they're asking themselves whether playing hardball with the UK is worth the damage it might cause to sterling and the knock-on effects. It might even be of benefit to kick the can down the street for a few months to allow the new reality to set in before getting out the thumbscrews.

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arse

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Eutychus
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# 3081

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, from this side of the Channel it appears entirely unrealistic to wait up to 4 months before invoking Article 50.

My reasons:

- that is simply far too long to keep businesses in uncertainty and they will let Cameron know that loudly

- the longer Cameron leaves it, the more disgruntled the EU will become (and justifiably so in my view)

- the longer Cameron leaves it, the bigger the legal, constitutional and economic vacuum grows in the UK, calling into question the democratic legitimacy of the vote, and into which more stupidity, such as the "second referendum", can emerge, and the greater the chance of unforeseen events. You would have thought he'd learned his lesson about committing to a course of action so far ahead of actually engaging it, apparently not. Did nobody ever tell him a week is a long time in politics?

All that said, I'm sure there's a degree of understanding on the EU side that the Brits need at least some time to get their ducks in order, and a certain amount of posturing is going on. But I really can't see this uncertainty lasting until October.

[ 25. June 2016, 21:14: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are setting out their stall as Brexit-breakers.

This could be interesting if there is a General Election called in the near future..

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arse

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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If Boris & Gove really wanted us to leave they would be banging on the table and mobilising demonstrations demanding that we push ahead as quickly as possible. The longer they let it ride, the more doubts will set in and the more chance the EU has to prepare its position for when the negotiations finally do start (wondering if this is actually Merkel's game).

I was never convinced by Boris as a Brexiteer and I am increasingly confirmed in that opinion. The only thing he believes in is Boris Johnson.

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are setting out their stall as Brexit-breakers.

This could be interesting if there is a General Election called in the near future..

If the political parties back away from the referendum result, however unfairly it may seem to have been achieved, I think the UK is facing far bigger problems than whether or not it can manage to stay in the EU.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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Hear hear what the sensible Eutychus has to say
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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
If the political parties back away from the referendum result, however unfairly it may seem to have been achieved, I think the UK is facing far bigger problems than whether or not it can manage to stay in the EU.

Eh, I don't think it is so bad. Plenty of other EU countries have repeated referenda when the first result was the wrong one. Looking at Ireland in particular.

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arse

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Stetson
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# 9597

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are setting out their stall as Brexit-breakers.

I am intrigued by the notion that the results of a vote can be ignored if it's determined that the winning side lied during the campaign.

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Eh, I don't think it is so bad. Plenty of other EU countries have repeated referenda when the first result was the wrong one. Looking at Ireland in particular.

The stakes were not so high. Backtracking on this one de-legitimises not only everyone on all sides in the original referendum, it throws open the huge question of just what makes any political decision legitimate, and the extent to which elected representatives should enact the will of the people.

While the EU-27 is waiting for an answer and not a single business with cross-border trade is going to want to make any investment decision until the question is resolved.

It may be that it's high time to tear up the way democracy has worked for the past few centuries in the UK, and I'm sure there are no shortage of ideas for replacing it, but don't expect it to be a peaceful process. A bold and adventurous decision indeed.

[ 25. June 2016, 21:57: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
If the political parties back away from the referendum result, however unfairly it may seem to have been achieved, I think the UK is facing far bigger problems than whether or not it can manage to stay in the EU.

Eh, I don't think it is so bad. Plenty of other EU countries have repeated referenda when the first result was the wrong one. Looking at Ireland in particular.
And most unedifying that spectacle was - the sort of thing that contributed to many Brexiteers' fears about the EU, indeed.
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PaulTH*
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# 320

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Is something being stitched up? Angela Merkel is sounding very conciliatory, saying the EU shouldn't be nasty to us or push for a speedy exit. Mind you, Frau Merkel's idea of not being nasty may differ somewhat from yours or mine..

Disappointed as I was with the vote, I'm now hoping that Frau Merkel, as the most powerful voice in Europe, will be the voice listened to. Juncker and the six foreign ministers who met this morning would be all for "punishment" and "consequences" for a people who dared to challenge their vision of an integrated Europe. But the UK has always been a semi-detached member with several important opt outs, a position I was relatively comfortable with.

Perhaps she's listening to her car manufacturers who would regard it as dangerous to impose tariffs on British goods, which could cost their members jobs if they were reciprocal. But her view is that she still wants Britain as a strong political and trading ally, and perhaps when the others have stopped throwing their toys out of the pram, and they've had time to think, they'll let Mrs Merkel take the lead.


quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
I suspect they've noticed financial crash, the potentional for the breakup of the UK, and the re-emergence of civil instability of N.I.

While I greatly admire the wily political instincts of both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, I'm not convinced they're being either realistic or fair here. Less than 2 years ago, Scotland voted, not by a huge margin, but by a respectable 10%, that it wanted to remain part of the UK. Now it's not news that Nicola doesn't and never will accept that verdict. And the question will undoubtedly come again. But it shouldn't happen after 2 years! Those sort of questions can be asked once in a generation. So Scotland voted, as part of the UK, by it's own democratic process. That it didn't like the result doesn't justify another referendum. Should London, with twice the population of Scotland become independent because it didn't vote for Brexit? It's quite likely that the European leaders won't deal separately with Scotland. There will be no mood among the Spanish, for example, to encourage regional breakaways.

The question of Northern Ireland needs to be dealt with in a way that keeps open the Irish border, and continues along the path of making that border irrelevant. In fact the Irish Republic needs to make it clear to other EU countries that whatever trade arrangements are eventually made between the EU and the UK, the historical and close economic and cultural ties between Britain and Ireland must be preserved. That's vitally important to the Irish economy, the Common Travel Area and the Northern Ireland peace process which needs an open border. An EU which couldn't recognise the special needs of Ireland would be irresponsible in the extreme.

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Yours in Christ
Paul

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
The people of the UK just voted to trigger Article 50. That was the democratically expressed will of the people.

The vote doesn't trigger it. Only the Gvt can do that.
It is true that the Government could turn round and declare that it's going to ignore the referendum, yes. That would be interesting.

quote:
quote:
The Leave Campaign seem to think they can act like a bunch of sulky teenagers. That if they yell that they're leaving this instant and never want to see their parents again, they can sidle downstairs the next morning as if nothing happened. That if they tell their boss that they resign and that he's a tinpot dictator, they can march in the next day and demand their job back with a salary hike, when they're lucky not to have their possessions thrown out the door after them.
Jeepers. I hope you don't work in HR or in residential tenancies. There is this thing called "notice", and it is there for a very good reason.
Unless I'm missing something 'notice' is there to protect the interests of the party to whom the notice is given. If I have a 30-day notice period on my job, that means that if the company fires me they have to pay me for the next 30 days while I find some other job. As far as I'm aware it does not mean that if on day 29 they decide they need me after all they can tell me that my contract is back in place and I can't take up whatever other job I've found.

Yes - the EU has no power to make the Government trigger Article 50. However, I imagine that if we want to start off exit negotiations on as friendly a footing as possible, it would help the UK position if it hasn't been playing silly buggers to the detriment of the EU economy.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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rolyn
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# 16840

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It's beginning to look to me as if this whole effing thing was just a circus, a spleen venting exercise for the good o'l British public.
I think a law should be passed which prevents politicians using immigration for electioneering. Cameron did it twice to get into No.10, now it's been used on him and caused his resignation.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Martin60
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# 368

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Sterling would have to fall 1000% to stop Eastern Europeans coming here. 5, 10, 25% is nowt. I met a young Polish bank manager in a Leicester A&E after taking one of his fellow countrymen, Patrick ... who'd managed to smash his own face in. The bank manager was doing warehouse work or some such. And happy to do so, with a wife and child. Patrick introduced me to a word for all occasions, which means every Anglo-Saxon word rolled in to one. These guys are tough, resourceful, cheap; a libertarian dream.

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Love wins

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are setting out their stall as Brexit-breakers.

This could be interesting if there is a General Election called in the near future..

If the political parties back away from the referendum result, however unfairly it may seem to have been achieved, I think the UK is facing far bigger problems than whether or not it can manage to stay in the EU.
The LibDems were slaughtered for being seen as too close to the Tories. The next leader of the Conservatives will be a Eurosceptic, so by taking a very strong pro-EU position Fallon has in one swift move opened clear space between the LibDems and the Tories. Obviously he's hoping that some of the 48% will feel strongly enough to vote for a pro-EU party in a general election - he's going to be realistic enough to know that it will only be a small portion of the 48% (many will still vote along their normal party lines, many will accept that the result is what it is and look at other issues, many will probably not vote at all), he's hoping it's enough that the LibDems can at least reverse the loses in 2015 and maybe even get their largest number of MPs. But even in his wildest dreams, the combined LibDem and SNP (and any other party that comes out explicitly pro-EU, the Greens maybe) MPs are not going to be enough to form a pro-EU government that will prevent Brexit. He's looking long term - establish and build a foundation that will produce a pro-EU government to bring the UK back into the EU in 30 years.

Besides, I don't think there will be a general election in the autumn. The only way there will be one before Brexit is complete is if for some bizarre reason that's not complete by 2020. The political scene is so uncertain at present that there would be a good chance of the Conservatives not having a majority - the Conservatives won't want to risk that, and Labour aren't going to want to find themselves in government with Brexit hanging over their heads (Labour are going to want to be the first government post-Brexit, and several governments thereafter).

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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PaulTH*
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# 320

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The political scene is so uncertain at present that there would be a good chance of the Conservatives not having a majority - the Conservatives won't want to risk that, and Labour aren't going to want to find themselves in government with Brexit hanging over their heads

The new Tory leader and Prime Minister needs to be a Brexiteer in order to make realistic overtures and demands to our EU brethren. But any change of government may be problematic because parliament is strongly pro EU. How do pro EU MP's enforce the will of a (marginally) anti-EU electorate?

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Yours in Christ
Paul

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Ronald Binge
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# 9002

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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The political scene is so uncertain at present that there would be a good chance of the Conservatives not having a majority - the Conservatives won't want to risk that, and Labour aren't going to want to find themselves in government with Brexit hanging over their heads

The new Tory leader and Prime Minister needs to be a Brexiteer in order to make realistic overtures and demands to our EU brethren. But any change of government may be problematic because parliament is strongly pro EU. How do pro EU MP's enforce the will of a (marginally) anti-EU electorate?
Put themselves up for election. After all, Parliament is sovereign, as S. Charles King and Martyr discovered.

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Older, bearded (but no wiser)

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Cod
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# 2643

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In the short run, the Lib Dems could actually lose further votes, seeing as their support was traditionally strongest in traditionally Eurosceptic areas like southern England. Also it won't recover them votes in other areas of traditional strength like the Highlands as they have been utterly outflanked by the SNP. So I applaud Tim Farron for at least taking an honest position as opposed to a vote-maximising one.

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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Disappointed as I was with the vote, I'm now hoping that Frau Merkel, as the most powerful voice in Europe, will be the voice listened to. Juncker and the six foreign ministers who met this morning would be all for "punishment" and "consequences" for a people who dared to challenge their vision of an integrated Europe. But the UK has always been a semi-detached member with several important opt outs, a position I was relatively comfortable with.

Perhaps she's listening to her car manufacturers who would regard it as dangerous to impose tariffs on British goods, which could cost their members jobs if they were reciprocal. But her view is that she still wants Britain as a strong political and trading ally, and perhaps when the others have stopped throwing their toys out of the pram, and they've had time to think, they'll let Mrs Merkel take the lead.

It's not, and never has been about tariffs. It's about regulations. When you make a product anywhere. In order to be able to sell it anywhere it has to meet the various legal regulations about such a product. As do it's components. Now cars are a good example as they have a long and complex supply chain.

Over the past 40 odd years the free-trade rules across Europe, agreed by all the governments mean that a car manufactured to be sold in any of the EU countries can be sold in any/all of them. The same rules apply across the countries. The absence of this harmonization is what creates cost for business and reduces productivity: you don't want to be making a different specification car for each market. And more to the point, the cost of ensuring that you meet all the regulations is not insignificant when you have to do it repeatedly.

One of the interesting aspects of how the EU works is that it has not gone for the lowest common denominator but sought to provide sensible consumer protection - like NCAP safety ratings, emission regulations etc.

Now, let's say you make cars in Britain. You, presumably still want to sell them in Europe (Can't remember the figure but big chunk of UK-made cars are sold into the EU. And currently Britain is a big manufacturer of cars). So you'll have to make them to the EU-wide standards and regulations.

In the short term it will be easy as the UK regulations will (to begin with) be the same. Overtime however there may be some divergence. Either way, any UK manufacturer will have to conform to the EU rules that the UK has no part in deciding on. We now have less control than we did before.

This could be formalised by the so-called 'Norway option' whereby we pay a fee and accept free movement of people in return for access the the free-market. I can't see that happening - any kind of deal we end up with will be less power and influence than we have now.

Over the longer term, if you're a big car maker and you really want to sell to the EU, where are you going to make your investment? The UK or somewhere on mainland Europe?

I think Airbus are going to have an interesting time as well.

But it's ok because we have taken back control. Forgetting that no major decisions happened in the EU without the UK, France and Germany all agreeing to it.
[brick wall]

And investment is going to go up because Boris said so.
[brick wall]

It is all a mess. I wouldn't mind if there was some actual advantage to leaving the EU. No-one has yet actually managed to explain to me one actual advantage.

So, I am going to suggest one. The Common Agricultural Policy is a disaster. Leaving the EU will free us to do what we like. Unfortunately current policy of the Leave leaders is to match the farming subsidies...

Want to convince me that leaving the EU was a good idea try this:
1) Scrap the agricultural subsidies in the current format and subsidize the planting of trees etc. - you know basically policy that is good for the environment and reduces flooding.
2) Guarantee that Britain will never join TTIP unless the regulations of food safety and consumer protections are up to current European standards and that there will be no arbitration tribunals.
3) Removal of VAT on fuel and sanitary products
4) The UK leaving makes the EU realise it has major issues, especially with respect to its approach to Greece and stops its idiotic and self-defeating approach.

I am not holding my breath.

AFZ

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Cod
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# 2643

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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Unless I'm missing something 'notice' is there to protect the interests of the party to whom the notice is given. If I have a 30-day notice period on my job, that means that if the company fires me they have to pay me for the next 30 days while I find some other job. As far as I'm aware it does not mean that if on day 29 they decide they need me after all they can tell me that my contract is back in place and I can't take up whatever other job I've found.



It's there to protect both parties by allowing them both a fixed time to rearrange their affairs. You will notice that Article 50 allows a 2 year period of notice, so clearly it was not envisaged that everything would be lined up before the notice was given.

If the EU don't like that - tough - it's there in the treaty that each EU state agreed to. While I think it astonishingly negligent of the UK government not to have made any contingency planning for a Leave vote (if this is indeed true) it seems that the European Commissioners and other leaders were asleep on. the job too. The fact that they're only consulting their lawyers now about a rather basic question is not encouraging. It really does seem that they thought it absolutely unthinkable that an EU state would ever decide to leave, something which frightens me for a number of reasons.

[ 26. June 2016, 00:18: Message edited by: Cod ]

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are setting out their stall as Brexit-breakers.

This could be interesting if there is a General Election called in the near future..

If the political parties back away from the referendum result, however unfairly it may seem to have been achieved, I think the UK is facing far bigger problems than whether or not it can manage to stay in the EU.
The LibDems were slaughtered for being seen as too close to the Tories. The next leader of the Conservatives will be a Eurosceptic, so by taking a very strong pro-EU position Fallon has in one swift move opened clear space between the LibDems and the Tories. Obviously he's hoping that some of the 48% will feel strongly enough to vote for a pro-EU party in a general election - he's going to be realistic enough to know that it will only be a small portion of the 48% (many will still vote along their normal party lines, many will accept that the result is what it is and look at other issues, many will probably not vote at all), he's hoping it's enough that the LibDems can at least reverse the loses in 2015 and maybe even get their largest number of MPs. But even in his wildest dreams, the combined LibDem and SNP (and any other party that comes out explicitly pro-EU, the Greens maybe) MPs are not going to be enough to form a pro-EU government that will prevent Brexit. He's looking long term - establish and build a foundation that will produce a pro-EU government to bring the UK back into the EU in 30 years.

Besides, I don't think there will be a general election in the autumn. The only way there will be one before Brexit is complete is if for some bizarre reason that's not complete by 2020. The political scene is so uncertain at present that there would be a good chance of the Conservatives not having a majority - the Conservatives won't want to risk that, and Labour aren't going to want to find themselves in government with Brexit hanging over their heads (Labour are going to want to be the first government post-Brexit, and several governments thereafter).

You are perhaps forgetting that ongoing investigations of electoral fraud by the conservative party potentially effect upto 25 mps - if fraud is proved then the government may lose its majority, difficult to see how a general election is avoided in those circumstances.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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Hilary Benn has been sacked from the shadow cabinet, for trying to get colleagues to agree to resign from the shadow cabinet.

So I think we know who the leadership challenger to Corbyn will be. He was probably the only plausible candidate.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Barnabas62
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What a bugger's muddle this is!

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Martin60
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alienfromzog, the 'advantage' is that Estonian cabbage pickers have less right to be here despite the fact that no English people want to pick cabbages. Worth it at ANY price. Even tripling the price of OUR cabbage.

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Love wins

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Beenster
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# 242

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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
alienfromzog, the 'advantage' is that Estonian cabbage pickers have less right to be here despite the fact that no English people want to pick cabbages. Worth it at ANY price. Even tripling the price of OUR cabbage.

That's just it. The "they" are taking our jobs that the "we" don't want to do.
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fletcher christian

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Paul TH:
quote:

Juncker and the six foreign ministers who met this morning would be all for "punishment" and "consequences" for a people who dared to challenge their vision of an integrated Europe.

This is exactly the same old horseshit that got the result you so longed for. It somehow is all the EU's fault that you can no longer have all the benefits after leaving it that you had when you were in it? Britain has spun this bullshit for decades. Everything that is in any way difficult that has been put in place by your own elected government you blame on the big old boogeyman, Europe. But you see, you can't do that anymore. Europe has no interest in punishing you. It just wants you to take responsibility for the decision you have now made and leave before the wreckage you've made starts to have a bigger effect than it should on everyone else around you. I know Britain's track record of taking responsibility for your actions isn't exactly stellar, but you could at least try it once without throwing accusations at everyone else in the room for dirtying your suit when you were the one rolling in your own shit.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Hilary Benn has been sacked from the shadow cabinet, for trying to get colleagues to agree to resign from the shadow cabinet.

So I think we know who the leadership challenger to Corbyn will be. He was probably the only plausible candidate.

And now he's said he won'tt actually stand for the leadership - that is possibly even less helpful. I think he would probably have lost - but he could have launched a challenge then put his case and maybe je would have convinced the membership. Niw he's just destablised the shadow cabinet with no apparent further plan (to be clear, yes I know Corbyn sacked him he didn't resign - but he was trying organise a mass resignation in which je would participate.)

What rally pisses me off, is that a) Corbyn deliver 70% of the labour vote for remain, which is comparable to the proportion their vote the SNP were able to deliver b) Corbyn has been consistently talking about the problems of poor communities hit by austerity, crap working conditions and shit housing since he took the leadership - and it is these problems that underly the brexit vote c) a large chunk of criticism about his campaign is that he actually told the electorate the truth, when they felt he should have spun to pretend we could get immigration rates down by by tens of thousand even with free movement c) the plp have been briefing against him since he was elected including *throughout* the remain campaign d) the actual leaders of the remain campaign itself (lord somebody or other - yes lord - nice appeal to the working man or woman there) and the labour remain campaign - Alan Johnson - have been nowhere to be bloody seen.

I saw much online coverage of corbyn doing stuff for remain - can anyone here rember Alan Johnson actually giving a remain speech, or Hilary Benn ? Iam sure it must have happened.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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TurquoiseTastic

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I have the mischievous thoughts that Corbyn actually wanted "Leave", and that it would have been much better had he campaigned hard for that, since large chunks of the right might then have gone over to "Remain".
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Rocinante
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:

I saw much online coverage of corbyn doing stuff for remain - can anyone here rember Alan Johnson actually giving a remain speech, or Hilary Benn ? Iam sure it must have happened.

I actually heard Johnson doing a phone-in on Radio 4 and he was very good, giving factual and constructive answers to even the most hostile callers in his usual matey style.

I don't think we can blame any of the Labour remain campaigners for their lack of exposure, the media were all obsessed with the blue-on-blue feuding between Cameron, and Boris & Dave.

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fausto
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# 13737

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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
alienfromzog, the 'advantage' is that Estonian cabbage pickers have less right to be here despite the fact that no English people want to pick cabbages. Worth it at ANY price. Even tripling the price of OUR cabbage.

At first I thought this was a typo and you meant Etonian cabbage pickers, but then I thought about it and it made no sense.

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:

I saw much online coverage of corbyn doing stuff for remain - can anyone here rember Alan Johnson actually giving a remain speech, or Hilary Benn ? Iam sure it must have happened.

I actually heard Johnson doing a phone-in on Radio 4 and he was very good, giving factual and constructive answers to even the most hostile callers in his usual matey style.

I don't think we can blame any of the Labour remain campaigners for their lack of exposure, the media were all obsessed with the blue-on-blue feuding between Cameron, and Boris & Dave.

There is now a claim he wasn't at the campaign launch circulating on twitter, supposedly sourced from someone working in labour communciations. Presumambly, they'd for gotten this photograph of the launch is findable through google:

http://labourlist.org/2016/05/a-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu-is-essential-for-jobs-and-workers-rights-says-alan-johnson/

I believe it is also ion the daily mirror site. Meanwhile Huffpost have a piece claiming he sabotaged the campaign consisting of:

  • He didn't focus on the referendum campaign till after the local elections - this seems to me unsurprising given that the plp were screaming that the labour vote was going to tank, he wasn't doing enough etc (it didn't and the party won the byelections)
  • Claims refused to meet with Alan Johnson - this has been debiunked, his office point out they met two days after Johnson asked to book a meeting and had fixed fortnightly meetings in his diary
  • . They ddin't like the issues he choose to focus on and felt he didn't talk enough about immigration - choosing instead to blame these problems on austerity (also noting oroblems with the EU in his speeches whilst arguing for remain). Or to put it another way, he told the truth.
  • He wouldn't put a specifc set phrase at the end of every speech - this of a man who was elected partly because people were sick of 'soundbite' politics
  • They felt he should have done more specific labour in events, instead of talking about it at other political and canvassing events
  • He didn't share a platfotm with Browb, Blair or Lord Mandleson - I struggle to see who this would have helped, frankly I am amazed anyone thinks having Tony Blair backing your cause is helpful
    [*2]He didn't trail soundbites of his Andrew Marr interview to the press ahead of time
  • There was one particular speech they thought was going to be about the EU but wasn't

This is very clearly co-ordinated with the cabinet resignations - none of it comes anywhere near an *honest* strategy that would have changed the vote.

The campaign would have functioned better if the plp were not also v obviously manourvering to oust him during the campaign.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
I don't think we can blame any of the Labour remain campaigners for their lack of exposure, the media were all obsessed with the blue-on-blue feuding between Cameron, and Boris & Dave.

Which also meant that no matter how well Corbyn (or anyone else) made the case for the EU based on the rights of workers etc, arguments that should appeal to the traditional Labour voter, those arguments were never going to be heard by the Labour voters he was appealing too. Which may be a result of poor press officers in his office, but it's also possible that the obsession in the press with the issues of the right and the Tory infighting would have made even the worlds greatest press team struggle to get his message reported.

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
... Plus they may have noticed the reluctance to trigger article 50 and think that if they sit on his hands brexit might die a death without further intervention.

Please God, and if only - and I mean that. [Votive] [Votive] [Votive] [Votive] [Votive] [Votive] [Votive]

Alas, it's a long shot, but I would never have expected the Iron Curtain to come down

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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Also he did deliver 70% of the labour vote, realistically how much higher could that really be - if 70% of the entire country had voted either remain or leave we'd have been astonished.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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Do we think it would have been different if Cameron had not allowed the cabinet to campaign for out ?

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
]I actually heard Johnson doing a phone-in on Radio 4 and he was very good, giving factual and constructive answers to even the most hostile callers in his usual matey style.

I don't think we can blame any of the Labour remain campaigners for their lack of exposure, the media were all obsessed with the blue-on-blue feuding between Cameron, and Boris & Dave.

I meant of course, Boris & Gove.
[Hot and Hormonal]
I think people got that.

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Do we think it would have been different if Cameron had not allowed the cabinet to campaign for out ?

Boris is a member of the cabinet, isn't he? If he had been forced to resign in order to campaign for out, it might have given him pause. He took an age over the decision as it was.
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Eirenist
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1. Seen on last night's BBC News: Elderly lady, in Romford, Essex, asked for reaction to result: 'Wonderful! I've got my country back! and it'll just be like it was before!' Before what, one wonders.
2. I see there is a suggestion that the 'Second Referendum' petition was started by a 'Leave' supporter when it looked as if 'Remain' might win.

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