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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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Theresa May's announcement of a "Great Repeal Bill" to feature in the next Queen's Speech seems like a good time to lay the long-running EU Referendum thread "in, out, in out" to rest and start a new one on the implementation of Brexit.

The article quoted above says
quote:
The repeal of the 1972 Act will not take effect until the UK leaves the EU under the process for quitting the bloc known as Article 50.
From this I understand that May is intending to trigger Article 50 without going to Parliament, but that it needs to be followed up by a Repeal Bill, which presumably needs a majority vote in the UK Parliament to become law. Am I right, and if I am, isn't this likely to be fraught with difficulties?

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Enoch
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# 14322

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
... Am I right, and if I am, isn't this likely to be fraught with difficulties?

I bl***y well hope so, but I had a sickening dread, comparable to my dread about Trump winning the presidential election, that she'll get it through. There seems to be nobody who has both the moral courage and sufficient access to the levers of power in this sorry country to stop this lunacy.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Barnabas62
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It looks like a preliminary technical move. So far as I can see, once passed, it will incorporate into UK law all E.U. legislation which has legal effect up to that point in time. So it will change no prior legal impact of the European Communities Act 1972. Presumably that enables the rescinding of any parts of that incorporation which the government wants to rescind. Presumably, this way, it will avoid what I can only imagine would be an endless series of legal cases coming before the European Court about the legality of such changes.

So I think it is more about process than principle at this stage. It does demonstrate just how complex the process of Brexiting may become. The detailed messiness of this divorce is now emerging.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
There seems to be nobody who has both the moral courage and sufficient access to the levers of power in this sorry country to stop this lunacy.

But, it's the "clear will of the people". How can Parliament or the courts overrule the mandate of the masses? May has no choice, the Tory Party is still torn apart by the European question, but now the result from June is in it's clear that those favouring Europe do not have the majority support of Tory voters and members, so her only option to maintain some semblance of party unity is to go with Brexit. I can't see how the outcomes of the various legal challenges currently before the courts would change that. And, she knows putting the question back to Parliament will just rip open the poorly stitched wounds in her party.

Two years after calling Article 50 and the Brexit will be done, and at that point the 1972 Act does become meaningless and I doubt many people would object - we can continue to campaign for a new Act to lead us back into the EU, but we'll have put the 1972 one to rest.

Meanwhile, here's what's really happening

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:

Meanwhile, here's what's really happening

[Killing me]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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I suppose that hard Brexit is making the running, and presumably, this is a concession to them. At any rate, the right wing tabloids are crowing, that the EU has had a stake through its heart.

It's confusing though. EU law is being absorbed into UK law (or is that English law?), so that the bad bits can be sifted out later. That sounds a pretty big job.

I've also been reading some economists argue that hard Brexit could be very expensive, because of tariffs, and could even outstrip the cost of being in the EU. Now that would be ironic.

The trouble is, there is now so much spin and counter-spin, who can really say?

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rolyn
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# 16840

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Just sign the bloomin fing and then Europe becomes our friend without benefits and we can set sail in our wooden ships and rediscover the West Indies.

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fletcher christian

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You could always reopen the coal mines.

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Enoch
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# 14322

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... Meanwhile, here's what's really happening

Unfortunately that's a joke too near the truth not to leave a nasty taste in the mouth.


Both the two large parties demonstrate over and over again that they put their own survival above both the national interest and any sort of integrity.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Enoch
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# 14322

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... Meanwhile, here's what's really happening

Unfortunately that's a joke too near the truth not to leave a nasty taste in the mouth.

As for the three stooges, the only word that can describe them isn't just unfit to be uttered on a Sunday. It's not allowed on weekdays either.


Both the two large parties demonstrate over and over again that they put their own survival above both the national interest and any sort of integrity.


Sorry about this but a draft of this post seems to have appeared as well by a mistake. Would there be any possibility of an administrator removing the earlier one please?

[ 02. October 2016, 13:58: Message edited by: Enoch ]

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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quetzalcoatl
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The point by Enoch about their own survival rings true. The referendum itself was designed as a sticking plaster for the Tory party, and all the guff about 'in the national interest' is for the birds.

Labour are now all over the place (what's new), since the MPs from Leave areas are doing a plausible imitation of Enoch Powell on immigration, while Corybn does the opposite.

Brexit seems like a huge wedge driven into the body politic, with unpredictable and largely alarming consequences.

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clarity eats into freedom. (Bellow).

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Schroedinger's cat

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# 64

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I've also been reading some economists argue that hard Brexit could be very expensive, because of tariffs, and could even outstrip the cost of being in the EU. Now that would be ironic.

Probably the case, as many people were arguing before the vote.

Leaving the EU will cost us a huge amount of money.

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Cod
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:

Sorry about this but a draft of this post seems to have appeared as well by a mistake. Would there be any possibility of an administrator removing the earlier one please?

And would the administrator remove them both to the Hell thread where they properly belong? I appreciate that emotions run high on this topic, but it seems to me that everything you have posted on it is more appropriate for Hell rather than purgatory.

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Eutychus
From the edge
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hosting/

As a general rule we only remove posts that are exact duplicates or made redundant by the removal of a duplicate post. That is no longer the case here.

Cod, as far as I can see your post on this thread is more out of place here than Enoch's.

If you have a complaint about hosting then take it to the Styx.

/hosting

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
You could always reopen the coal mines.

[note I'm not suggesting that fc was being serious in the above]

The odd thing about the so-called "Hard Brexit" is that there is very little sensible discussion about the reverse ramifications. Yes, ok, so if the UK went back to WTO rules we can opt out of the law courts in Strasbourg (but can we really..?), we can set our own import tariffs and control our own borders.

But we'd also be treated as outsiders by the rest of Europe. How many Brits working in Europe would suddenly/eventually find that they need visas to continue working? What would happen to the large numbers of retired Brits in Spain and elsewhere?

And yes, we could row back on commitments made by the EU on climate change (but then can we really..?) and we could choose to reopen the coal mines.

Which of course is a jokey slogan and is basically impossible for all but a tiny minority of relatively recently mothballed mines. There are none in South Wales which retain the necessary infrastructure.

This whole thing is a trainwreck. It isn't too late to realise that this whole Brexit bollocks is only going to make things worse for the UK.

[ 03. October 2016, 07:36: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Nothing's impossible. It is possible to recreate the infrastructure to reopen coal mines in South Wales, it will just be hideously expensive and take a long time. It is possible to negotiate trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world that are more favourable than WTO (or, more accurately re-negotiate trade deals, since we're already operating under such deals with much of the world - it's just they were negotiated by the EU), it will just be hideously expensive and take a long time.

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Citizen of the world

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Nothing's impossible. It is possible to recreate the infrastructure to reopen coal mines in South Wales, it will just be hideously expensive and take a long time. It is possible to negotiate trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world that are more favourable than WTO (or, more accurately re-negotiate trade deals, since we're already operating under such deals with much of the world - it's just they were negotiated by the EU), it will just be hideously expensive and take a long time.

Well, I suppose that's technically true, but in practice it is impossible. And local people probably wouldn't support it, given the complaints about open cast mines, incinerators and composting sites.

The valleys were filthy for 200 years. For the last 40 they've been relatively clean, not to mention that the mine sites have been built on and the railway tracks taken up. There is no appetite to put it all back.

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Enoch
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Mr Cheesy, it isn't too late. It isn't too late until the government serves an Article 50 notice.

And it is stupidly, crassly and unmitigatedly stupid. As stupid as choosing Corbyn.

But we have a government which puts the future of the conservative party, the opportunity to stuff UKIP and the prospect of mopping up some dissatisfied Labour voters ahead of the national interest. And, so much for something that used to call itself the unionist party, its leader is deluding herself that this won't break the union.

[ 03. October 2016, 07:59: Message edited by: Enoch ]

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Enoch
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# 14322

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Nothing's impossible. It is possible to recreate the infrastructure to reopen coal mines in South Wales, ...

Also, the coal in them has been dug out. It isn't there any more.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Also, the coal in them has been dug out. It isn't there any more.

Not sure that's entirely true, it just wasn't economic to dig any more out at the time they closed.

But this amounts to the same thing; if it wasn't economic to send Welsh miners to dig out coal from small coalseams in the 1960s, it surely isn't now.

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Pass me a book I've read
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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
There is no appetite to put it all back.

The same could be true of trade. We're in the process of burning bridges. Dismantling trade deals, which often took decades to negotiate, is very much like removing infrastructure. Putting them back into place will require an appetite to do so from both sides. There's a rose-tinted spectacle feel to the Brexit optimism that everyone will want to rapidly sign trade deals with the UK. The US government have already stated that their priorities will be the major trade deals they've already committed a lot of time and effort on, with the EU and with Asia. Australia and NZ are working very hard on developing trade deals with the new economic powers in Asia. We've kicked the EU in the goolies ... and do we expect them to just pretend it never happened to sign a deal with a small island?

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Citizen of the world

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The same could be true of trade. We're in the process of burning bridges. Dismantling trade deals, which often took decades to negotiate, is very much like removing infrastructure. Putting them back into place will require an appetite to do so from both sides. There's a rose-tinted spectacle feel to the Brexit optimism that everyone will want to rapidly sign trade deals with the UK. The US government have already stated that their priorities will be the major trade deals they've already committed a lot of time and effort on, with the EU and with Asia. Australia and NZ are working very hard on developing trade deals with the new economic powers in Asia. We've kicked the EU in the goolies ... and do we expect them to just pretend it never happened to sign a deal with a small island?

Without being overly negative, the problem is that the UK doesn't actually produce much any more, most money is in the service sector. And in a globalised world, what's the great advantage in having the financial centre in London anyway - if the UK has lost access to the EU market?

I don't think things are totally impossible, but we need a lot more imagination and investment to find something to offer to the rest of the world.

We don't have anything much left to dig out of the ground, we can't just rely on other countries wanting to continue servicing us as consumers - because if we're not producing anything then we have nothing to spend.

One would think that increasing spending on science and tech research would be a good way forward for the economy, but unfortunately the Tory vision seems to be one of wishful thinking - where they can cut budgets on everything without it having any impact on the nation's competitiveness.

I fear that we are facing a deep recession.

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Pass me a book I've read
Pass me a fresh cut flower
And ask me what I dread
That the good in me is dead

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... and do we expect them to just pretend it never happened to sign a deal with a small island?

A small island that also happens to be the fifth largest economy in the world. I don't understand why so many Remainers persist in referring to the UK as if it's Tuvalu or Kiribati.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
A small island that also happens to be the fifth largest economy in the world. I don't understand why so many Remainers persist in referring to the UK as if it's Tuvalu or Kiribati.

Some silly percentage of that economy is in parts that can easily move elsewhere. Indeed if the UK wasn't in the EU, it'd be rather odd if a large proportion of City banking didn't move inside the eurozone.

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Pass me a book I've read
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That the good in me is dead

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Indeed if the UK wasn't in the EU, it'd be rather odd if a large proportion of City banking didn't move inside the eurozone.

That's pretty much what people were saying when we decided not to join the Euro. It didn't happen then, so why is it so inevitable now?

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
A small island that also happens to be the fifth largest economy in the world.

What percentage of that is financial services, and how much of that would suffer in the event of no "financial passport" being agreed?

(ETA: the issue is not the Euro, the issue is whether there is free movement of currency).

[ 03. October 2016, 09:44: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Indeed if the UK wasn't in the EU, it'd be rather odd if a large proportion of City banking didn't move inside the eurozone.

That's pretty much what people were saying when we decided not to join the Euro. It didn't happen then, so why is it so inevitable now?
Despite not adopting the Euro we were still inside the EU and to reinforce what mr cheesy said, a lot of profit can be made through currency trades and if that can be done in the same trading bloc, so much the better for traders in the City, Frankfurt, Paris etc. It's questionable whether that will continue when are are outside the tent.

[ 03. October 2016, 09:53: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]

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When you are dead, you won't even know you are dead. It is a pain felt only by others.

Same if you're stupid.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
<snip>

We've kicked the EU in the goolies ... and do we expect them to just pretend it never happened to sign a deal with a small island?

... not to the extent that we've kicked ourselves in the goolies.

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When you are dead, you won't even know you are dead. It is a pain felt only by others.

Same if you're stupid.

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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I also have enormous fears for the future. Not so much for myself, but the next generation in this country, who have already born the brunt of austerity, have just been dealt another huge blow to their prospects.

At the moment the brexiteers' answer to our legitimate concerns appears to be "All is well, all is well...fifth largest economy in the world, we are a great nation lalalala".

I've passed through the "denial" stage on Brexit, I'm now clutching at straws trying to convince myself that it might not be so bad. What do shipmates think of the hoary old brexiteer mantra that Europe sells more stuff to us than we do to them, so they'll want to carry on trading freely with us whether it's hard or soft brexit?

Apart from instinctively feeling that our current horrendous balance of payments deficit is not something to put on the positive side of the equation, I don't know enough about how international trade works to critique this belief. I know someone who sincerely believes that we'll "clean up" by charging tariffs on all the stuff coming in from Europe. Instinctively I feel that this is economically illiterate, but I can't really back it up with detailed argument.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... and do we expect them to just pretend it never happened to sign a deal with a small island?

A small island that also happens to be the fifth largest economy in the world. I don't understand why so many Remainers persist in referring to the UK as if it's Tuvalu or Kiribati.
No one is comparing us to Tuvalu or Kiribati.

But, how long will the UK be in the top ten largest economies? I don't think anyone is expecting anything other than a contraction in the economy over the next few years, the question being how much the economy contracts. Coupled to other economies expanding, that will inevitably shift us below the position the UK currently holds. We already know that a sizable proportion of international investment in the UK is on the basis of free access to the EU market (both to sell goods produced here, and to access goods produced there), any barriers to free movement of goods, services, finance and labour will reduce the attractiveness of the UK to international investment. The currency markets post June have made UK exports cheaper, but at the same time raised the costs of imports - including the materials and components needed for those exported goods.

It still comes down to if the EU has limited resources to negotiate trade deals, why would they spend that on the UK when there are deals to be made with the US and China? Same with Australia and other Commonwealth nations that the Leave campaign were very keen on (without, ISTM, actually asking whether trade deals with the UK were of benefit to them - and, ignoring the existing trade deals through the EU).

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Citizen of the world

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Posted by Mr Cheesy:
quote:

[note I'm not suggesting that fc was being serious in the above]

There was a serious point underneath. The coal m inning era was really the last vestige of an old Britain that was 'great'. It was just at that moment when all of the manufacturing of steel, cars, machinery and clothing etc was all disappearing to other parts of the world and there was much agonising over the loss of what made Britain 'great'. The Brexit vote appealed to that very old fashioned notion in lots of ways; the time when Britain was white and blue collar, people worked hard and lived well....of course it's all part of the myth of the English country idyll left over from WW2, but the myth had a powerful appeal nonetheless. It is exactly the same thing that is sending the USA off beam; an appeal to the myth of 'the way things were'. What will be interesting is when the country wakes up to the fact that this narrative is in fact a myth. The USA seems to be waking up to it, but I'd never be so foolish as to underestimate the power of such a myth to rally the troops. Ultimately, Britain could come out of it all alright; a bit poorer, but managing. It would seem to be unlikely that it will ever be a central hub again, but much like Brexit, the effects of this won't be felt for another decade (hopefully) and its the generations to come that will wonder why a country voted not to work in co-operation in an increasingly global economy. While the Brexit voters hoped to create a nostalgic Britain again what they will eventually end up with in all likelihood is a Britain that is no longer 'great' and a United Kingdom that is no longer united. This in turn would lead to a major crisis of identity, which could of course be overcome, but the variables make it an almost impossible task.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Jane R
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# 331

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Rocinante:
quote:
I know someone who sincerely believes that we'll "clean up" by charging tariffs on all the stuff coming in from Europe. Instinctively I feel that this is economically illiterate, but I can't really back it up with detailed argument.
The rest of the world will also 'clean up' by charging tariffs on things we export to them. And a lot of the stuff we import is food and raw materials for what's left of our industry; we can't slap huge tariffs on those without shooting ourselves in the foot. The weakness of the pound is going to cause enough hardship on its own, for people struggling to afford food.

The tabloid rhetoric about 'arrogant' EU negotiators is not helping. The EU negotiators have a responsibility to get the best deal possible for the countries in the European Union. If the best deal for them involves throwing the UK under the bus, then they're doing their job by trying to get it. Our interests and theirs no longer coincide; the Electorate Has Spoken.

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Tubbs

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# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
A small island that also happens to be the fifth largest economy in the world.

What percentage of that is financial services, and how much of that would suffer in the event of no "financial passport" being agreed?

(ETA: the issue is not the Euro, the issue is whether there is free movement of currency).

ETA: Passporting allows a company to set up in one EU country, operate in all the others but only have to report to one regulator. It's the free movement of services.

Clearing, or the free movement of currency, is different. (This Bloomberg article talks about the issues with clearing).

Passporting isn't a great benchmark as there are almost as many UK firms passporting into the EU as there are passporting out of the EU into the UK. There's been a lot of talk about UK based firms needing the passports to access EU markets, but not so much the other way round. Some of the EU entities passporting into London will be trying to access business that only comes to London.

Unless the UK and the EU agree to keep passporting or equivalency, then the EU specific business will move to the EU. (As I'm in insurance, wish me luck!) But other business will either stay in London or move to NY.

At the moment, none of the European hubs currently have the right infrastructure or access to capital that London or NY has. Creating that takes time. Longer than two years. And Europe's banks are wobbling.

I’m just hoping for the best, kind of expecting the worst and getting on with life. There has to be some middle ground between us all getting a unicorn and it all ending in fire. A lot can happen in two and a bit years.

Tubbs

[ 03. October 2016, 11:29: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
The EU negotiators have a responsibility to get the best deal possible for the countries in the European Union. If the best deal for them involves throwing the UK under the bus, then they're doing their job by trying to get it.

To echo the point Sioni made earlier, we've put ourselves under the bus. The question is probably having waited so long for a bus, how many come along at once?

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Citizen of the world

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Baptist Trainfan
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# 15128

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
It was just at that moment when all of the manufacturing of steel, cars, machinery and clothing etc was all disappearing to other parts of the world .

While I generally agree with what you say, in one respect you are actually repeating a different form of mythology where the car industry is concerned. The highest year for production was 1972, with 1.92m cars produced; after a big decline numbers have increased year-on-year with half-year production to July 2016 nearly reaching 900,000, if which nearly 80% were exported. The Society of Motor Manufacturers predicted that, if present trends were to continue, the figures for 2017 would be the highest ever.

Of course much of the British motor industry is foreign owned (but, then, Ford and Vauxhall etc. always were). And, of course, automation means that the total workforce is much smaller. But it shows that Britain does still "make things"; although other traditional products (e.g. ship-building) have indeed virtually vanished we also have a market in precision high-tech engineering products and the like.

Brexit has put this all in doubt.

[ 03. October 2016, 11:14: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
Of course much of the British motor industry is foreign owned (but, then, Ford and Vauxhall etc. always were). And, of course, automation means that the total workforce is much smaller. But it shows that Britain does still "make things"

Another part of the myth is actually that car manufacture, indeed a large part of manufacturing in general, has significantly changed - and it's not just automation. To a large extent, it would be better to say that the UK "assembles" cars rather than "makes" them. First, car manufacturers don't make most of the components of their cars, they are bought in from elsewhere (often elsewhere in Europe) and then put together. The combination of currency exchange rates and potential tarrifs will significantly increase costs for cars assembled in the UK. That is also true of much of modern manufacturing.

Second, another side of manufacturing is the design of the product. Of course, for cars, the UK has virtually no presence in the design of cars - the big manufacturers are non-UK owned and will do most of their design work elsewhere. There are, of course, some smaller UK companies that design and manufacture in the UK for niche markets. There is the potential for a big return on a successful design, but very few inventors, innovators and designers hit gold everytime they start sketching out a new idea.

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Citizen of the world

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
The EU negotiators have a responsibility to get the best deal possible for the countries in the European Union. If the best deal for them involves throwing the UK under the bus, then they're doing their job by trying to get it.

To echo the point Sioni made earlier, we've put ourselves under the bus. The question is probably having waited so long for a bus, how many come along at once?
All this assumes that the EU’s future is all fluffy bunnies and rainbows. Whilst UKIP’s gleeful predictions it’s all going to topple over are wrong, the ex-Greek finance Minister at the IoD might be closer to the mark. He thought the EU would eventually reach a kind of gridlock. The Northern economies doing well, the Southern economies doing badly. With everyone sweating the small stuff because they can’t agree on the bigger things.

He didn’t mention Eastern Europe in the accounts of the speech I saw. But Hungary was in breach of EU rules last time I looked and a few others are sailing close to the wind. In the interests of maintaining a united front, everyone seems to be ignoring that. Whether that can continue is anyone’s guess!

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:

Another part of the myth is actually that car manufacture, indeed a large part of manufacturing in general, has significantly changed - and it's not just automation. To a large extent, it would be better to say that the UK "assembles" cars rather than "makes" them. First, car manufacturers don't make most of the components of their cars, they are bought in from elsewhere (often elsewhere in Europe) and then put together. The combination of currency exchange rates and potential tarrifs will significantly increase costs for cars assembled in the UK. That is also true of much of modern manufacturing.

And it's not just about tariffs (or at least tariffs are a much smaller part of the problem) the real issues are around regulations and assessment of conformity, and that really starts to bite when you have international supply chains - a lot of the time the UK is manufacturing precursors and relying on precursors elsewhere.

Additionally, to the point upthread, Britain could move from fifth to seventh largest economy without much of an impact to the living standards in the rest of the world - whose own exporters may well be better off - the consequences for Britain itself would be a lot more serious though.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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Incidentally, I think the X largest economy mantra is a silly argument. China has the world's 2nd largest economy, but that still doesn't mean they get to do trade deals at the drop of a hat, does it?
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Eirenist
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# 13343

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No doubt I will be corrected if I am wrong, but common sense tells me that, hard Brexit or soft, a higher proportion of people in the UK will still want to buy EU goods than the proportion of EU folk who will want to buy British,

To me, the truth seems to be that without realising it the Great British Public has voted for natonal castration.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
A small island that also happens to be the fifth largest economy in the world.

What percentage of that is financial services,
Approximately 4%, according to Wikipedia

quote:
and how much of that would suffer in the event of no "financial passport" being agreed?
Probably not much. London is a worldwide (if not the worldwide) financial centre, so lots of the business it does isn't reliant on such passports anyway.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Despite not adopting the Euro we were still inside the EU and to reinforce what mr cheesy said, a lot of profit can be made through currency trades and if that can be done in the same trading bloc, so much the better for traders in the City, Frankfurt, Paris etc. It's questionable whether that will continue when are are outside the tent.

Currencies other than the Euro and Pound exist. Besides which, if they can trade Euros in New York I don't see that London would have any major problem once we're out of the EU.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Enoch
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# 14322

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Marvin, you're not persuading me.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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I'm not really trying to. That battle has already been fought.

I'm just trying to point out that the result of June's referendum doesn't necessarily mean Britain is going to turn into Somalia. Though I get the distinct impression that there are some who would quite like that to happen, just so they could say they were right.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Alan Cresswell

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Somalia?

Nothing of the sort. But, for the UK economy to decline relative to other nations, certainly - we're already seeing that with the pound losing value against other major currencies, impact on science already documented (mostly uncertainty about EU funding and residence status of EU research staff) and an impact on all sectors through increased xenophobia detering qualified staff from taking up positions in the UK or deciding to quit their jobs to work in other nations who value skilled workers.

How far will the UK economy decline? Difficult to say, but to fall out of the top seven economies is certainly plausible.

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Citizen of the world

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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What strikes me is that nobody knows. Brexiteers are naturally enough inclined to give rosy forecasts, and some Remainers are being gloomy. However, this is probably all guesswork. I suppose most of economics and politics is guesswork in any case, but now we seem to be making a fetish of it. Possibly, there is a new industry here which the UK could specialize in.

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clarity eats into freedom. (Bellow).

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
However, this is probably all guesswork. I suppose most of economics and politics is guesswork in any case

Forecasting of economic trends (as opposed to specific economic occurrences) is generally on more solid ground.

I don't see why there is any need to pretend otherwise, other than to give succour to those who believe their decision has no consequences.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Well, if someone makes a guess, it doesn't mean that their decision has no consequences. Example: Suez. Didn't Eden guess that he would succeed in his mad enterprise?

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clarity eats into freedom. (Bellow).

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Beeswax Altar
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# 11644

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quote:
originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The US government have already stated that their priorities will be the major trade deals they've already committed a lot of time and effort on, with the EU and with Asia.

No, Barack Obama has stated that. Barack Obama won't be president after January 20. Trump supports Brexit. Who knows what Clinton thinks? However, Clinton has already repudiated the TPP which Obama and Kerry negotiated. Hard to believe she follows through on punishing the UK for leaving the EU. I say this for two reasons. One, the US doesn't have much of a trade deficit with the UK. Why would disrupting trade with the UK be in our economic interest? Two, the UK is our closest ally. The optics would be horrible. Here, let me spin the narrative for you. The UK stands alone against a united Europe controlled by a Germany seeking to destroy the sovereignty of individual nations. Sound familiar? First poll comes out in support of a deal with the UK, Clinton and May agree to business as usual over afternoon tea and crumpets. Will the EU then try to punish the US? Good luck with that.

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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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Well, "a united Europe controlled by a Germany" is a nonsense. If there are further moves towards a political union in Europe the control will be with whatever political structures are built for that purpose - a strengthed European Parliament, for example. Which won't be Germany (or France, Belgium or anyone else). I would love for that to happen, and for the UK to be at the heart of it (except there will need to be a coordinated political movement in the UK to reverse the stupidity of the 23rd June first - and, if such a movement is born I'll sign up).

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Citizen of the world

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