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» Ship of Fools   » Community discussion   » Purgatory   » Shake it all about: Brexit thread II (Page 13)

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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
Quetzalcoatl:
As a voter to remain I am sad that this may lead to me being bracketed with purveyors of hate.

Am I allowed to say this in Purg.

Anteater (aged 70)

But hang on, I am hearing on the grapevine that old gits are able to avoid deportation and/or euthanasia if they are willing to write a 5000 word essay, saying why they should be exempted. You need to state hobbies, any useful contributions you have made in the last 60 years, Post Office Savings a/c amounts, contributions to Bob a Job, that sort of thing.

In triplicate, please.

Quetzalcoatl, aged 82.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Perhaps it would be a good idea to get pensioners to write an essay on what their grandchildren or great grandchildren (or other school age children they may know) think before each election. I think we could all do with a reminder of what our votes mean to others before we walk down to the polling station. Even more so when, like this referendum, the decision is over something that can't be readily corrected in 5 years - and when (if) the UK leaves the EU three years after the vote many of the old timers who voted leave will have died and lots of teenagers who wanted to remain are old enough to vote.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
anteater

Ship's pest-controller
# 11435

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Queztlcoatl, Alan Cresswell:

I don't buy the idea that any group needs to establish it's legitimacy to vote. It is a given.

I admit I was reacting in considerable annoyance to the anti-old-people post, and I am surprised when this type of stereotyping and disrespect to a whole group of people is found on these boards.

I see a real danger here, because it is doubtless true that identifiable groups do have overall biasses, so that it is easy to scapegoat groups because they have statistical measurable tendencies. And then one can come to dislike the group as a group and forget about individuals.

I thought of a separate thread to discuss the ethics of this but I have no time for Hell, and since this is very much about one person's post, and think that is where I would have to raise it.

So there my protest rests. And for what little it may be worth I (hand on heart) did take the issue of the greater effect on the young into consideration and I would support the enfranchisement of anybody old enough to pay tax.

But I'm still an old person. And the only way to change this is, indeed, to die.

[ 29. November 2016, 14:57: Message edited by: anteater ]

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Schnuffle schnuffle.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
I don't buy the idea that any group needs to establish it's legitimacy to vote. It is a given.

I wasn't attempting to establish a legitimacy to vote - you're right, that is a given (although there were various groups excluded from voting in the referendum who one might expect to have been given a chance - but, that's a different discussion perhaps).

What I was highlighting was that it would be better if all voters took some time to consider their vote carefully (would be better, not should). Especially when the impact of a vote on us is minimal, but the impact on others could be significant - in the case of the EU referendum the impact of the vote on people who are unlikely to live for a long time after Brexit will be very much smaller than the impact on those who should have a long life ahead of them. I just ran with the essay idea as a way of considering the views of others.

quote:
I admit I was reacting in considerable annoyance to the anti-old-people post, and I am surprised when this type of stereotyping and disrespect to a whole group of people is found on these boards.
I hope I haven't been guilty of such stereotyping. Of course it isn't true that all older people voted Leave and all younger people voted Remain. There were plenty of older people (including many here) who voted Remain, and younger people who voted Leave. Which is certainly something I have acknowledged before in discussion of the demographics of the vote.

I may have been guilty of some disrespect (hopefully only confined to threads in Hell) for older people who voted Leave (that specific subset of older people) - but if so it was probably part of a general disrespect to anyone who voted Leave.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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where do you stand on old people who voted leave because they gave it a lot of thought and decided it was in "the youths"/nation's best interests to have the UK removed from the EU regardless of what younger people think now?

Incidentally, have you seen the ICM poll in the Torygraph today?

If I were Mrs May, engineering that early election somehow would be *very* tempting....

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And is it true? For if it is....

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MarsmanTJ
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# 8689

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
where do you stand on old people who voted leave because they gave it a lot of thought and decided it was in "the youths"/nation's best interests to have the UK removed from the EU regardless of what younger people think now?

I consider such people be much the same as people who force arranged marriages on their children. The similarities are striking, actually...
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
where do you stand on old people who voted leave because they gave it a lot of thought and decided it was in "the youths"/nation's best interests to have the UK removed from the EU regardless of what younger people think now?

Actually, I respect the decisions people make if they have given it a lot of thought. Even if I think their thinking was mistaken. Far too many people (on both sides) didn't give things a lot of thought. And, from what I've seen reported (I personally don't know anyone who voted Leave) there was an awful lot of very superficial thinking (at best) among people who voted Leave "to make a protest", "because there are too many foreigners", "because the EU dictates everything we do", "£350m per week for the NHS" etc.

quote:
Incidentally, have you seen the ICM poll in the Torygraph today?

If I were Mrs May, engineering that early election somehow would be *very* tempting....

Conversely, on a pro-EU ticket the LibDem candidate standing against Zac Goldsmith in Richmond has closed a very large 20% lead in 2015 to within the uncertainty of the polls. And, a similar pro-EU candidate came in strong in Witney. If that swing was seen across the country a General Election could very easily result in a block of MPs elected on a "stay in the EU" ticket, quite possibly more than enough to result in a hung Parliament. Which would be the absolute nightmare for Theresa May with (probably) the largest number of MPs being forced to govern with a minority or form a coalition with the LibDems/Greens/SNP who will insist on remaining in the EU as a condition of such a coalition (with the support of those who elected them). The option of forming a strong coalition or not will solidify how strongly she wants to hold onto the fiction that Brexit in any form has the support of the UK electorate.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Conversely, on a pro-EU ticket the LibDem candidate standing against Zac Goldsmith in Richmond has closed a very large 20% lead in 2015 to within the uncertainty of the polls.

I must confess I'd forgotten it was Twickenham this week - a quick trip over to Lib Dem supporting Mike Smithson over at Politicalbetting.com finds him not exactly
falling over himself to endorse those numbers in the Observer at the weekend.

We'll know soon enough.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Callan
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# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Conversely, on a pro-EU ticket the LibDem candidate standing against Zac Goldsmith in Richmond has closed a very large 20% lead in 2015 to within the uncertainty of the polls.

I must confess I'd forgotten it was Twickenham this week - a quick trip over to Lib Dem supporting Mike Smithson over at Politicalbetting.com finds him not exactly
falling over himself to endorse those numbers in the Observer at the weekend.

We'll know soon enough.

I think we'll see a Lib. Dem. revival of sorts over the next couple of years - potentially, if there was an election tomorrow, according to one poll with the Lib Dems running on a platform of a second referendum they could score 22% (with Labour on 20%). I don't think that's outwith the bounds of possibility but it wouldn't make Tim Farron the Leader of the Opposition even if it did happen, which strikes me as unlikely. More generally, I expect the Lib Dems to increase their share of the vote in Twickenham, just as they did in Witney but even if they win it you can't really generalise from a couple of by-elections in leafy Remain areas to the whole of the UK.

The most likely outcome of an immediate General Election, as things stand, is a Tory landslide somewhat mitigated by Remain voters in Remain areas turning to the Lib Dems. UKIP might possibly win a couple of extra seats but they would mostly be there to cheer on a Brexit Tory Government.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Conversely, on a pro-EU ticket the LibDem candidate standing against Zac Goldsmith in Richmond has closed a very large 20% lead in 2015 to within the uncertainty of the polls.

I must confess I'd forgotten it was Twickenham this week - a quick trip over to Lib Dem supporting Mike Smithson over at Politicalbetting.com finds him not exactly
falling over himself to endorse those numbers in the Observer at the weekend.

We'll know soon enough.

I think we'll see a Lib. Dem. revival of sorts over the next couple of years - potentially, if there was an election tomorrow, according to one poll with the Lib Dems running on a platform of a second referendum they could score 22% (with Labour on 20%). I don't think that's outwith the bounds of possibility but it wouldn't make Tim Farron the Leader of the Opposition even if it did happen, which strikes me as unlikely. More generally, I expect the Lib Dems to increase their share of the vote in Twickenham, just as they did in Witney but even if they win it you can't really generalise from a couple of by-elections in leafy Remain areas to the whole of the UK.

The most likely outcome of an immediate General Election, as things stand, is a Tory landslide somewhat mitigated by Remain voters in Remain areas turning to the Lib Dems. UKIP might possibly win a couple of extra seats but they would mostly be there to cheer on a Brexit Tory Government.

Yes, don't disagree with any of that.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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anteater

Ship's pest-controller
# 11435

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I'd like to open up a slight tangent, not to grind an axe, but because I am interested, and think some on the Ship may have expertise here, mentioning no names!

So the tangent is on drilling down a bit into the effect of Brexit on scientific research projects, where I believe EU funding plays a big role. So my questions are:

1. To what extent is research funding dependent on EU membership? I have heard that a lot of the collaboration is mediated throughout structures outside the EU (a bit like defence being co-ordinated by NATO). Is this true to a significant extent.

2. Are Swiss research institutions (or Norway's) seriously disadvantaged by non-membership?

3. Is there little serious co-ordinated research between, say EU and USA? Is it significant?

4. As regards existing research involving centres of excellence across Europe, co-ordinated by EU, would the UK component be expelled? Could the UK Government make up the funding gap, or is this so complicated as to be implausible?

5. Is the concern that although the UKG could make up the gap, is it more neo-liberal and so less likely to invest government money into research, that the institutionally Centrist EU?

6. How much is up for grabs in the Brexit negotiations?

I know this sounds like a questionnaire but I think answers can be brief. But I'll understand if nobody has the time.

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Schnuffle schnuffle.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
1. To what extent is research funding dependent on EU membership? I have heard that a lot of the collaboration is mediated throughout structures outside the EU (a bit like defence being co-ordinated by NATO). Is this true to a significant extent.

Research funding from EU Government sources was approximately 13% of the total research income for Russell Group universities in the 2014/15 academic year, with other overseas funding (from industry, non-EU governments, etc.) making up at most another 10%. The rest comes from UK-based industry, charity or government sources. [Data sourced from the Higher Education Statistics Agency]

It's reasonable to assume that most of the EU government funding will go away when we leave the EU, though there may still be a few projects run by UK institutions with EU funding - these would presumably be on a similar basis to existing projects funded by non-EU government bodies. I'm reasonably confident that EU-based industries will still fund UK institutions, again on a similar basis to industries based outside the EU.

I think the drop in EU government funding will be felt more in some subject areas than others - politics, international development, languages, etc. will probably feel the pain more than areas such as engineering and medicine where a much higher percentage of research funding comes from private industry.

I don't really know enough to confidently answer the other questions you asked.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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I know researchers in Greenland working as a partner on a large EU grant, so it can't be the case that only researchers in EU countries can apply.

Reading between the lines, it seems UK researchers are reported as being "frozen out" from EU grants more because of a perception of what might happen by other academics.

I suspect what might be happening is that UK researchers were often the main partners in EU research grants, and there is some touchiness about awarding the main bulk of research money to a non-EU country.

So I think in the long run, UK researchers might be able to join research groups as a junior partner, but will probably not be awarded the big bucks as they would have before.

Incidentally, did anyone notice that a UKIP Welsh Assembly member asked the Welsh government if it was possible to have the Republic of Ireland apply for EU grants to improve the M4?

[Killing me]

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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I've worked on several EU funded research projects which included Norway and Switzerland. And, I know people working on a large EU project that also includes Japan.

The situation is that EU research money will not be provided for non-EU participants (there may be opportunities for non-EU participants to access EU money through overseas aid routes - which won't apply to the UK or other developed nations), nor can institutions in non-EU nations manage or lead EU-funded projects (in part because the EU will usually provide some financial support for administration of projects). Non-EU participants in EU funded projects have to be entirely funded from other sources (their own national research budgets, private industrial sources etc), but can participate on an equal basis with other partners thereafter.

What the EU provides is a structure for research prioritisation and funding streams which is very much more efficient than what could be achieved otherwise. Bi-lateral cooperation happens frequently between organisations in different countries, but it takes a lot of work to agree budgets, identify funding sources, put everything into a contract etc. That work becomes more and more difficult as you increase the number of institutions, and particularly as you increase the number of nations those institutions are in. Setting up an ad-hoc collaborative agreement between 20 institutions in 12 countries would be next to impossible - but it happens frequently for EU projects, and it is quite straight forward for non-EU based institutions to slot into the structures.

In addition to the funding of collaborative research projects the EU also has a range of fellowship schemes which make the movement of researchers between institutions in different countries relatively easy (though, with a lot of competition to get those fellowships), and other mobility schemes - all of which is, of course, helped by freedom of movement within the EU. For colloboration, a young researcher from institution A moving to institution B for a few years is by far the most effective.

Collaboration is, and always will be, the best way of improving research output. I can try and find the data, but recently I read a report summary showing that the added benefits of collaboration with other institutions in EU nations is far greater than collaboration with institutions in other nations - and that the UK has done disproportionately well out of that, adding more value to UK research through EU funded work than achieved by most other countries in the EU.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Eutychus
From the edge
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I have been a provider for an EU project and worked on several others and can confirm what Alan's saying.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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I should add, though UK institutions would still be able to participate in EU funded research projects if they could obtain equivalent financial support from UK sources (research councils or direct from government departments) that isn't the whole story.

First, of course, they would be participants and the added prestige of leading a research project would go elsewhere.

More importantly, the EU (like everyone else) works with research priorities. The secret of successful EU funding is to have the ear of the people who establish those priorities, and to get them to recognise that there is a need for European-wide research in your research area. Of course, people from outside the EU will find it very difficult to have their voice heard in such quarters, and hence will not be involved in setting the research agenda in Europe. That means that UK institutions outside the EU would be able to follow someone else's research agenda, but won't be setting the European research agenda.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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mr cheesy
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It appears that's not quite true for the Horizon 2020 programme, Alan. There is a list of "Associated Countries" who can apply to receive funds from the programme like an EU country.

It appears that these countries, which include Norway and Iceland, have this status because they're contributing to the EU's science budget as if they were EU countries.

Other countries, including Switzerland, have signed agreements with the EU to access certain parts of the budget (and therefore have contributed to that budget), and there is a longer list of countries who can be partners of H2020 projects providing they find other ways to pay for their part of it.

So it appears that the UK would only have full access to the H2020 funds if it continued to pay in a full contribution to the EU science budget.

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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So, the government needs to get paying money into an EU budget past the Barmy Brexit Brigade. I won't hold my breath over that.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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anteater

Ship's pest-controller
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Alan C:
quote:
So, the government needs to get paying money into an EU budget past the Barmy Brexit Brigade. I won't hold my breath over that.
I did rather think that the situation could be bettered in the negotiations.

But both major parties have a barmy wing (sadly including the leader and shadow chanceller for Labour). Given that Theresa May was a Remainer, and have more hope than you that she will deliver a sensible exit plan.

I am not aware of any Brexiteers who have a principled stance against remaining in programmes set up under the EU umbrella, given that to do so would not violate any aspect of Brexit that I know of.

Sadly, there seem to be few (if any) Brexiteers on this ship who could argue the case for hard brexit.

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Schnuffle schnuffle.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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According to today's dribble of news from the government, the Brexit Minister is contemplating the option of paying to remain within the EU single market.

Even if this was possible, why wouldn't the other EU countries charge a high price for access? Why would they allow the UK to join at anything other than the price we've been paying?

And if we have access to the market, why wouldn't we have to conform to the European courts etc?

And if we've paid a high price for entry to the single market and have to conform to the courts and other rules.. then what exactly is the advantage of Brexit?

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arse

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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I think it's a very positive sign. It may well not be possible, but at least we might be prepared to think about it. That's the sort of pragmatic thinking that's been in short supply recently.
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Rocinante
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# 18541

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It's quite courageous (in the Yes Minister sense of the word) for Davis to even admit that such a thing is being contemplated. I expect that at the age of 67 he's planning to step down at the next election anyway.

The Brexit supporters I know won't like it.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Strange how these little leaks and disclosures are being done, I suppose to stop the general frustration at the opacity of the process.

I guess that the sticking point is going to be nasty foreigners, or in fact, even nice foreigners. The single market might be OK, but wogs begin at Calais.

Although I wonder if there'll be special exemptions e.g. for agriculture, for those awful 6am shifts in freezing weather, pullng up daffodil bulbs, etc.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
It's quite courageous (in the Yes Minister sense of the word) for Davis to even admit that such a thing is being contemplated.

I think it's far more likely to be the latest in the hodge-podge 'strategy' that has been adopted so far. Probably what happened is was something like; a call to keep the UK in the single market, brief consideration of the EFTA, dismissal of the EFTA for various reasons, suggestion from the minister of "Can't we just pay for access ?"

[Incidentally the 'pay for access' strategy undermines the reasoning around 'they will fall over themselves to give us a free trade deal because they sell us more than we sell them'].

I suspect that in reality the more like EFTA they want the trade side of the agreement to be like, the more of the structures of EFTA they'll have to take on. Something piecemeal isn't likely to be achievable by this current set of politicians, so the only thing left is EFTA as a package, which wouldn't be acceptable to the Brexit element of the Tory party (and let's face it, this is all about party unity rather than what might be good for the country).

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anteater

Ship's pest-controller
# 11435

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Mr Cheesy:
quote:
. . . , why wouldn't the other EU countries charge a high price for access? Why would they allow the UK to join at anything other than the price we've been paying?

And if we have access to the market, why wouldn't we have to conform to the European courts etc?

And if we've paid a high price for entry to the single market and have to conform to the courts and other rules.. then what exactly is the advantage of Brexit?

I still don't see why people can't see what I can. So no change there, then . . .

As must be obvious, I am impressed by the Flexcit option proposed by the arch-Brexiteer Richard North, and the official plan backed by Leave.UK.

The point is that the EEA arrangement is not the destination, but an essential step on the way, due to the risk of doing hard-brexit, and the fact that there is no reason to rush at this.

The HUGE difference between this and being in the EU is that we are out of the Customs Union and so free to negotiate trade deals with whoever we choose. Gives us added (fair) bureaucratic costs as a downside.

Also the fact that both CAP and Fisheries are not included is significant.

Why does anyone see it as equivalent to membership?

There has to be acceptance that initial contribution for access will and SHOULD be more or less what we are paying now (North believes we may have to pay a bit more as a face-saver), and yes we cannot remove ourselves from the court which is the means to adjudicate trade disputes. But even there, it's not all or nothing. As we gain strength, we could, if we chose to, renege on some aspects of ECJ ruling which would lose us access to that part of the single market. E.g. if there was a sector with a huge domestic market and timy EU market and we wanted to ditch some regs. I suspect it's not worth bothering.

The Brexiteers get what they want. In time.

It's also interesting how many Europhiles, who presumably don't believe that our partners are both muppets and vindictive bastards, seem to assume that this is how they will behave. Whereas most Brexiteers assume they'll behave like reasonable people.

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Schnuffle schnuffle.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:

It's also interesting how many Europhiles, who presumably don't believe that our partners are both muppets and vindictive bastards, seem to assume that this is how they will behave. Whereas most Brexiteers assume they'll behave like reasonable people.

Brexiters seem to assume that these countries have no interests of their own, that they will prioritise a trade agreement with the UK above everything else they could possibly do, and that they have infinite amounts of legislative and other resources to do so.
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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
I still don't see why people can't see what I can. So no change there, then . . .

As must be obvious, I am impressed by the Flexcit option proposed by the arch-Brexiteer Richard North, and the official plan backed by Leave.UK.

The point is that the EEA arrangement is not the destination, but an essential step on the way, due to the risk of doing hard-brexit, and the fact that there is no reason to rush at this.

The HUGE difference between this and being in the EU is that we are out of the Customs Union and so free to negotiate trade deals with whoever we choose. Gives us added (fair) bureaucratic costs as a downside.

Mmm. Which is coded language for saying that we don't have to allow those jonny foreigners in, I suppose.

Yes, OK, I suppose we'd have the freedom to negotiate trade deals without the rest of the EU. And we'd not have to allow those jonny foreigners in.

quote:
Also the fact that both CAP and Fisheries are not included is significant.
Is it? Are you suggesting that the costs of supporting agriculture in the UK would be less than we're currently paying towards the EU agriculture budget?

quote:
Why does anyone see it as equivalent to membership?
Oh I don't know - might it be because we'd be paying the same amount and getting less out of the EU - even in the rosy-coloured future where the other EU countries allow this kind of arrangement?

quote:
There has to be acceptance that initial contribution for access will and SHOULD be more or less what we are paying now (North believes we may have to pay a bit more as a face-saver)
Wait.. so the Brexiteer idea is that we should be paying even more to receive less from the EU. How does that work?

quote:
and yes we cannot remove ourselves from the court which is the means to adjudicate trade disputes. But even there, it's not all or nothing. As we gain strength, we could, if we chose to, renege on some aspects of ECJ ruling which would lose us access to that part of the single market. E.g. if there was a sector with a huge domestic market and timy EU market and we wanted to ditch some regs. I suspect it's not worth bothering.
Yah, whatever. We can't have it both ways - either we want to trade freely with Europe, in which case we've effectively got to carry on producing everything to the EU specifications, or we're on our own. If we're on our own, I'll grant you that we no longer have to produce to the EU specifications. But if we don't want the spec, we can't then trade freely in the EU.

quote:
The Brexiteers get what they want. In time.
It seems to me that the Brexiteers have absolutely no idea what they want - except that they don't want to be worse off by leaving the EU than they were in it. I can't see that there are many "save the NHS" votes in paying even more for an EU we're not even in.

quote:
It's also interesting how many Europhiles, who presumably don't believe that our partners are both muppets and vindictive bastards, seem to assume that this is how they will behave. Whereas most Brexiteers assume they'll behave like reasonable people.
Sorry, what exactly is unreasonable about setting a higher barrier for those who want access to a private club without the restrictions that are impicit in being a member? It isn't about "being vindictive bastards" it is just common sense that there must be some benefit in EU membership, otherwise there isn't much point in having an EU rather than a loose common market without any of the other stuff.

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arse

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:

It's also interesting how many Europhiles, who presumably don't believe that our partners are both muppets and vindictive bastards, seem to assume that this is how they will behave. Whereas most Brexiteers assume they'll behave like reasonable people.

It's reasonable to give a two-finger salute to everything someone stands for and expect to be welcomed to the table as a favourite child? To undermine the very existence of the EU and smiled upon?

From what imaginary planet do you gather the wisdom you share here?


Vindictivel

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
The HUGE difference between this and being in the EU is that we are out of the Customs Union and so free to negotiate trade deals with whoever we choose.

Assuming, of course, that they want to negotiate a trade deal with us. There's little benefit being able to negotiate a trade deal with, say, Australia if Australia are putting all their effort into trade deals with China, S.Korea and Japan and aren't interested in a trade deal with the UK.

quote:
Gives us added (fair) bureaucratic costs as a downside.
Did you see the report leaked the other week which suggested that the number of additional civil servants needed to take up the work currently done by the European Commission would be almost the same as the number of people in the Commission. An interesting perspective on the supposed inefficiencies of the European structures when the Commission can work on behalf of 740 million people (with a large number of different languages, cultures, legal systems ...) but the UK needs the same number of civil servants for 60 million people (and, only a few languages, cultures and two legal systems).

quote:
It's also interesting how many Europhiles, who presumably don't believe that our partners are both muppets and vindictive bastards, seem to assume that this is how they will behave. Whereas most Brexiteers assume they'll behave like reasonable people.
I think everyone is assuming that our European partners will behave like reasonable people. The difference is what we think is reasonable. Brexiteers seem to think that they will act in the best interests of the UK, personally I think they will act in the best interests of their own nations, then in the best interests of the EU and only take consideration of the interests of the UK at the bottom of that list.

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Gee D
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
The HUGE difference between this and being in the EU is that we are out of the Customs Union and so free to negotiate trade deals with whoever we choose.

Assuming, of course, that they want to negotiate a trade deal with us. There's little benefit being able to negotiate a trade deal with, say, Australia if Australia are putting all their effort into trade deals with China, S.Korea and Japan and aren't interested in a trade deal with the UK.
And quite frankly, that it what Australia will continue to do. Admittedly out PM made sounds of interest when visiting the UK recently, but they will not get much further. The prime purpose was to be kind to a Tory PM.

Britain ditched its former trading partners when it joined the EU. It was right to join but should have taken more care about the consequences. The NZ economy was very badly battered, as was that of the small Aust state of Tasmania. Each took years to recover and redirect resources. Memories are not that short.

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I think everyone is assuming that our European partners will behave like reasonable people. The difference is what we think is reasonable. Brexiteers seem to think that they will act in the best interests of the UK, personally I think they will act in the best interests of their own nations, then in the best interests of the EU and only take consideration of the interests of the UK at the bottom of that list.

Fortunately, we have Johnson, Davis, and Fox on the case using all their combined charm and diplomacy to win the EU round to our way of thinking.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
otherwise there isn't much point in having an EU rather than a loose common market without any of the other stuff.

Sounds good to me.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
otherwise there isn't much point in having an EU rather than a loose common market without any of the other stuff.

Sounds good to me.
But not to any of the people you are trying to make an agreement with.
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Rocinante
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Looks like the people of Richmond Park dislike Brexit even more than they dislike Heathrow expansion. Not sure this means much for national politics, but maybe people will decide the Lib Dems have been punished enough for the Coalition.

It's also Karma for Zac Goldsmith's disgraceful mayoral campaign.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Looks like the people of Richmond Park dislike Brexit even more than they dislike Heathrow expansion.

Irrelevant comparison as the LibDems also oppose Heathrow expansion. AFAIK, the candidates didn't provide much in the way of options for a pro-expansion vote.

quote:
Not sure this means much for national politics, but maybe people will decide the Lib Dems have been punished enough for the Coalition.

It does mark a step towards a resurgence of the LibDems. I don't think it says much about Labour, who've never had a hope in Richmond Park.

In terms of Brexit, it's difficult to say. Both contested by elections since June have resulted in strong votes for a pro-EU candidate. But, as previously noted, both were in areas which voted Remain in June, so it doesn't really put the cat among the pigeons. Also the LibDems are only relatively pro-EU - they've also bought into the fiction that the referendum result compels the UK to leave the EU, and are working for the softest possible Brexit rather than oppose Brexit completely.

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anteater

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Alan C:
quote:
Brexiteers seem to think that [the EU institutions] will act in the best interests of the UK, personally I think they will act in the best interests of their own nations, then in the best interests of the EU and only take consideration of the interests of the UK at the bottom of that list.
I think that's just silly.

All Brexiteers I know believe they will behave exactly as you state. I seem to be the closer to Brexit than most on this Ship, and I would expect politicians in the member states to do exactly what you said.

The Brexiteers are saying, rather, that in a lot of areas, the interests of the UK and EU are in line. And what they are against is the idea that even where this is the case, the EU institutions will go for a deal that is worse on all sides, just to stick one up the UK.

Which if course, they might, but I don't think they will.

Mr Cheesy:
quote:
Mmm. Which is coded language for saying that we don't have to allow those jonny foreigners in, I suppose.
Maybe you could decode it then. FWIW the Flexcit option (which is available publicly) states in words of one syllable that there would be no significant reduction in EU immigration. Maybe a small bit at the edges. Without free movement you can't get full and uncomplicated free market access. As I rather thought you knew. I agree that this will be difficult politically since the more I read about the campaign (now reading "All out war") the more I see that it was the immigration issue that swung it. This is the major risk, that although literally you have fulfilled the pledge by exiting Norway-style, you "really know" that immigration was what done it. Which is why I hope rather than am confident that good sense will prevail.

quote:
Yes, OK, I suppose we'd have the freedom to negotiate trade deals without the rest of the EU.
Here we get to the nub of my point. Clearly, if the UK has no real success in making these bilateral trade deals, then Brexit will be seen to have been a failure economically (which doesn't invalidate it for the Bennite/Foxy "no vote no tax" fundamentalists).
And so, yes, it is a risk. But my point, which you seek to minimise, is that this is significantly different from staying in.

If we agree that grown-up politics is about dealing with the world as it is, not as we wish it were, I can see these alternatives for remainers:

1. Go all out to reverse the referendum decision.
2. Go all out for a soft brexit.
3. Say whatever the brexiteers do makes no difference so we may as well go for a hard brexit.

Personally, from what I have read, I do not see the attraction of option 3. I really can't decide whether too much has happened to campaign for option 1.

So if the Libs are joining Labour in going for option 2, I think that is worth supporting. Although if I were a Lib I'd stick to my guns and go with 1. It gives them a very powerful electoral USP, given that I consider it beyond reasonable doubt that a majority of the electorate would prefer to stay in the EU, and they've done too many U-turns (like Student grants) that a bit of stubborn "here we stand" stuff would go down quite well.

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Ricardus
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Anteater: agree 100%.
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:

It's also interesting how many Europhiles, who presumably don't believe that our partners are both muppets and vindictive bastards, seem to assume that this is how they will behave. Whereas most Brexiteers assume they'll behave like reasonable people.

It's reasonable to give a two-finger salute to everything someone stands for and expect to be welcomed to the table as a favourite child? To undermine the very existence of the EU and smiled upon?

From what imaginary planet do you gather the wisdom you share here?


Vindictivel

If the EU takes offence at Britain's actions, and allows that offence to colour their negotiations, then that might be an understandable reaction, but it's not a rational one.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
Alan C:
quote:
Brexiteers seem to think that [the EU institutions] will act in the best interests of the UK, personally I think they will act in the best interests of their own nations, then in the best interests of the EU and only take consideration of the interests of the UK at the bottom of that list.
I think that's just silly.

All Brexiteers I know believe they will behave exactly as you state. I seem to be the closer to Brexit than most on this Ship, and I would expect politicians in the member states to do exactly what you said.

The Brexiteers are saying, rather, that in a lot of areas, the interests of the UK and EU are in line. And what they are against is the idea that even where this is the case, the EU institutions will go for a deal that is worse on all sides, just to stick one up the UK.

First, just to clarify, I wasn't talking about EU institutions (at least, not primarily) but the governments of 27 sovereign nations. And, I would say it's a bit silly to think that they will all agree on what is in the best interests of their own nations, much less on the best interests of the EU as a whole.

But, just to take free trade. We may all agree that in isolation free trade is a good thing. But, it's not a question in isolation. The EU is losing a net financial contributor. Therefore, either EU programmes will be cut (forcing nations to pick up the slack within their own borders) or contributions from other nations will need to rise - in both cases, all the other 27 nations will see a cost. One way of recouping that cost would be to charge a tariff on goods imported from the UK. Of course, their businesses then pay to export to the UK - the balance of whether that's good or bad will vary by nation (and, by sector within each nation). Can we honestly say that all 27 nations will agree that the free-trade that's good for the UK is also going to be good for them, especially if there isn't some other recompense for the added costs that they will incur because of Brexit? Some nations in the EU will support what the government wants (whatever that will be), others won't. And, that will all be down to different interests in each nation. There won't be agreement that "this is in the best interests of all", because it's impossible to form such a consensus with the number of players at the table - especially in just two years.

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Barnabas62
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The only way of avoiding a loss of tariff advantage will be to pay to get it back. That's if we get an offer to do that, rather than further repetition of the policy that free movement of labour is a non-negotiable part of the deal.

But if we are lucky, and do get an offer, don't be surprised if the financial cost to the UK turns out to be remarkably close to the current annual contributions.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. When it comes to international horse-trading, the Brexit position was, is, and always shall be, trustingly optimistic. If you place yourself, voluntarily, at a negotiating disadvantage, you get screwed. Why should others forego that advantage?

But you don't have to take my word for it. Just watch David Davis wriggle.

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Looks like the people of Richmond Park dislike Brexit even more than they dislike Heathrow expansion. Not sure this means much for national politics, but maybe people will decide the Lib Dems have been punished enough for the Coalition.

It's also Karma for Zac Goldsmith's disgraceful mayoral campaign.

I think at this moment a solemn tribute to Mr Goldsmith is in order.


[Killing me] [Killing me] [Killing me] [Killing me] [Killing me] [Killing me] [Killing me] [Killing me]

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mr cheesy
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Wait.. so there are seriously people arguing for a Brexit which includes free trade and free movement? Whaaaat?

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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There's an argument that this will stop May calling an election, but as you might expect, there is also the reverse argument. Now what was it? Oh yes, that since her majority is shrinking, she might as well reinforce it, and pulverize Labour. Dunno.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I think everyone is assuming that our European partners will behave like reasonable people. The difference is what we think is reasonable. Brexiteers seem to think that they will act in the best interests of the UK, personally I think they will act in the best interests of their own nations, then in the best interests of the EU and only take consideration of the interests of the UK at the bottom of that list.

Fortunately, we have Johnson, Davis, and Fox on the case using all their combined charm and diplomacy to win the EU round to our way of thinking.
Moreover, David Davis (Brexit minister) appears to be treading on Liam Fox(International Trade minister)'s turf regarding membership of the single market.

Cabinet must be a bundle of fun today.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Wait.. so there are seriously people arguing for a Brexit which includes free trade and free movement? Whaaaat?

[Killing me]

"When you've got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow".

Sooner, or later, there will be a reckoning. Basically, some farsighted and courageous politician will stand up and say to the British Electorate. "You goofed. You shot yourselves and the country in the foot. You believed a whole load of fairy tales. And now we're all screwed. And what's more, most of you now realise that. Time for a change of mind."

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Callan
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It'll take time, though. The next by-election is in Sleaford, home of the Sleaford Mods, where they voted for Brexit by 63%. Tim Farron isn't going to pull off a by-election victory there. The Tories are running on Brexit means Brexit and more money for the Boomers.

I have a horrible feeling that the most likely scenario is: Crash and burn out of the EU. Wait for the Boomers to die. Re-enter under Generation X et. seq. As Theresa May's role model might have said: It's an old wall, Avon, it waits...

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
If the EU takes offence at Britain's actions, and allows that offence to colour their negotiations, then that might be an understandable reaction, but it's not a rational one.

The UK voted on the premise it could have the benefits without any of the responsibility. It isn't vindictive to not allow this. And it is arrogant, ignorant and irrational to think this is a fair and proper thing to achieve in the first place.
As evidenced as the pols who pushed Brexit didn't really want it.

[ 02. December 2016, 17:53: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]

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Hallellou, hallellou

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ThunderBunk

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:



"When you've got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow".


This is more or less the basis for my feeling that the future is not as straightforward as assumed. I grant you that my grounds appear shaky, but I don't think the idea is without merit.

Parliament simply cannot validly approve the triggering of article 50. They are elected to act in the best interests of their electorate and ultimately the country, and have effectively been handed a double barreled shotgun aimed at the country's testes (for the purposes of the image, the country is assumed to wear its genitalia on the outside). They have been instructed to pull the trigger, but would still be committing GBH if they were to carry out the instruction.

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Currently mostly furious, and occasionally foolish. Normal service may resume eventually. Or it may not. And remember children, "feiern ist wichtig".

Foolish, potentially deranged witterings

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
If the EU takes offence at Britain's actions, and allows that offence to colour their negotiations, then that might be an understandable reaction, but it's not a rational one.

The UK voted on the premise it could have the benefits without any of the responsibility. It isn't vindictive to not allow this. And it is arrogant, ignorant and irrational to think this is a fair and proper thing to achieve in the first place.
As evidenced as the pols who pushed Brexit didn't really want it.

I think discussing Brexit exclusively in terms of what its most stupid proponents believe is probably not terribly helpful.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
It'll take time, though. The next by-election is in Sleaford, home of the Sleaford Mods, where they voted for Brexit by 63%. Tim Farron isn't going to pull off a by-election victory there. The Tories are running on Brexit means Brexit and more money for the Boomers.

Ah, but what if UKIP really bollocks up the Tories. If half the 60% think the government is making a mess of things an delaying Brexit and vote UKIP, the rest stick with the Tories. Then LibDems run on a pro-EU ticket and pick up the 40% ... now, that would well and truly put the cat among the pigeons.

It's not going to happen though.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Barnabas62
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Not very likely, Alan. But I think the penny has dropped. The government hasn't the foggiest idea how to make Brexit a success. Probably because there is no way of making it a success and a million and one ways of making it a failure. Shotgun aimed at genitalia indeed.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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