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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
Rocinante
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# 18541

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Are you trying to argue that Cameron was not a terrible PM?

I think he was ultimately unremarkable. Certainly not one of the best, but by no means one of the worst either.
If Cameron reads that he'll be like "Yeah! Unremarkable! Take that! Get in!!" <<Fist Pump>>

(Stops channelling inner teenager)

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
Trade is not a zero-sum game. You trade with people who have something you need in exchange for you having something they need.

Or want. It's not all about needs, not by a long chalk.

quote:
Trade needs to be a win-win.
Just one more reason for the EU to give us a good deal, then [Smile] .

quote:
The reason to be part of a trading bloc like the EU is to make that trade easier, so that all parties can get what they need at a lower cost. This combative mentality does not help us to understand the nature of trade.
Except for the fact that one of the reasons the UK wants to leave the EU is all the regulations that are preventing us from getting what we want, of course. It doesn't just (some would say "even") make trade easier, it also defines what can be traded and who it can be traded with.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Gee D
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# 13815

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:


That beautifully sums up the attitude of Britain to the EU yet also reveals just how far down the rabbit hole of insularity that Britain has fallen. More and more it is possible to see the whole affair as the UK's 'Make Britain great again' moment. It's that people don't see it that makes it so utterly remarkable.

Yes indeed, take Britain back to the 1890's. 1914 is too late as the US was comfortably the dominant economic power by then, even though (i) no-one outside the US realised that at the time and (ii) the US had no wish to provide any sort of political leadership.

The UK never treated the EU as anything more than a trading bloc, with a marked indifference to any other aspect of it. The Liberals were the only party that saw beyond that, and by the time of EU entry were on one of their downhill slides.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
[qb]Trade is not a zero-sum game. You trade with people who have something you need in exchange for you having something they need.

Or want. It's not all about needs, not by a long chalk.
But it also isn't always about everyone going into a negotiation with the objective of "winning". For example, China is prepared to go into asymetic trade deals (whereby they provide extremely cheap products to markets) because they are looking for almost-at-any-cost development. The reason we don't in return offer to provide Chinese customers with products that require our workers to live in the kind of poverty theirs do is because we're not as desperate for the work as they are.

Or one could also consider it is because the Chinese are rather better at thinking ahead than we are. Whilst they're servicing our appetite for cheap rubbish, they're also developing markets where we wouldn't want to trade by investing in roads and infrastructure. They're developing those markets - in time, perhaps, they might become rather better than we are, so they might not need to continue selling us cheap rubbish. Instead they might use their trading muscle to impose price increases on a "take it or leave it" basis, knowing that they've been quietly developing markets, knowing that all this time they've been strengthening their trade position.

Imagining that we are in a "strong" position because we're rich enough to demand that our "trading partners" supply us with the things we want at highly advantageous terms is something of a misnomer, in my opinion.

quote:
quote:
Trade needs to be a win-win.
Just one more reason for the EU to give us a good deal, then [Smile]
Again, that rather depends on what it is that everyone wants from the deal. If the UK continues to see the EU purely in terms of short-term economic advantage - which largely comes down to us being able to buy cheap stuff from our neighbours due to the difference between Sterling and the Euro - then we're in for a rude awakening. The real question is then the extent to which the EU "needs" to give the UK a quote unquote "good deal" rather than a knuckle sandwich.


quote:
quote:
The reason to be part of a trading bloc like the EU is to make that trade easier, so that all parties can get what they need at a lower cost. This combative mentality does not help us to understand the nature of trade.
Except for the fact that one of the reasons the UK wants to leave the EU is all the regulations that are preventing us from getting what we want, of course. It doesn't just (some would say "even") make trade easier, it also defines what can be traded and who it can be traded with.
Well, I guess we're going to see how much easier it was to work within the regulations of the EU rather than looking in from the outside and seeing that we cannot trade without meeting even higher standards.

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arse

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Ricardus
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All of that is still an argument based on economic self-interest, though.

For that matter, so are arguments of the type 'Britain is no longer a great power, so we must learn to get along with people.'

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
But it also isn't always about everyone going into a negotiation with the objective of "winning". For example, China is prepared to go into asymetic trade deals (whereby they provide extremely cheap products to markets) because they are looking for almost-at-any-cost development.

They're playing a longer game, yes, but they're still trying to win. And as you go on to say, once they have achieved the development they are after they are unlikely to continue offering us such good deals. Once that happens we'll have to either accept the end of cheap goods or find somewhere else that's prepared to make them for us.

This is perfectly consistent with my contention that each country is out to get the best deal it can for itself. China is absolutely following the same "trading and other international relationships only exist to make us, our lives, our economy, better and stuff everyone else" policy that you so despise in the UK.

quote:
quote:
quote:
[qb]Trade needs to be a win-win.

Just one more reason for the EU to give us a good deal, then [Smile]
Again, that rather depends on what it is that everyone wants from the deal.
The comment I replied to asserted that trade needs to be win-win. As in both sides need to win. And if that's at all true then the EU needs to make sure both sides of a UK-EU trade deal win.

I don't actually believe that trade needs to be win-win, of course, so I'm not expecting them to do us any major favours unless it's in their own interests to do so.

quote:
Well, I guess we're going to see how much easier it was to work within the regulations of the EU rather than looking in from the outside and seeing that we cannot trade without meeting even higher standards.
You say that as if the EU is the only place we can do business. There's a whole world out there for us to trade with! The world's fastest-growing economies are all in Asia and Africa - let's do business with them instead.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Humble Servant
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
You say that as if the EU is the only place we can do business. There's a whole world out there for us to trade with! The world's fastest-growing economies are all in Asia and Africa - let's do business with them instead.

You say that as if the EU is the only place where its members can do business. There are already free trade deals between the EU and large parts of Africa and some parts of Asia, with negotiations ongoing with almost all countries in these regions. We don't need to be leaving the EU to benefit from trade with the wider world. Source
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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
You say that as if the EU is the only place we can do business. There's a whole world out there for us to trade with! The world's fastest-growing economies are all in Asia and Africa - let's do business with them instead.

You say that as if (a) our nearest neighbours with whom we currently trade more than anyone else will want to trade with us at something above the WTO rules and (b) these other countries will want to trade with us.

Given how little we've invested in trade negotiators, never mind the diplomacy (and infrastructure investments) in Africa and elsewhere compared to China, that's quite a wild dream you've got there.

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Given how little we've invested in trade negotiators

To be fair, the UK has invested in trade negotiators. We've been paying money to the EU, and the EU has been employing trade negotiators on our behalf. Which has been a very cost effective and efficient approach to trade negotiations - as noted the EU has trade deals with countries around the world, with more in the pipe line.

In a post-Brexit world the UK government will need to directly employ trade negotiators. And, those people will need to a) negotiate a trade deal with the EU (and, anyone who thinks the EU isn't going to be our largest trading partner for the foreseeable future is living in some cloud cuckoo land), b) negotiate trade deals with all other nations we want trade deals with (in many cases having just ripped up a trade deal through the EU).

It's probably a good time to be someone with expertise and experience in international trade negotiations. Though whether the UK government wil find the money to pay these thousands of new staff they'll need is another matter. And, of course, they'll probably need to recruit internationally since it's almost certain there aren't enough UK citizens with the relevant qualifications - which will go against the anti-foreigner policies the government is adopting.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
We don't need to be leaving the EU to benefit from trade with the wider world.

Not the point I was making. Mr cheesy said that we'd find it harder to do trade post-Brexit due to looking in from the outside rather than being part of the EU club. To which I replied that the EU club isn't the only place we can do trade. Whether the EU also does trade with outside countries is irrelevant to that point.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Not the point I was making. Mr cheesy said that we'd find it harder to do trade post-Brexit due to looking in from the outside rather than being part of the EU club. To which I replied that the EU club isn't the only place we can do trade. Whether the EU also does trade with outside countries is irrelevant to that point.

Eh? So you're saying that other trading partners will give the same - or better - deal to the UK outwith of the EU than it would have inside the EU bloc?

Even though whilst inside this is part of a bigger trading bloc and outside is an isolated island.

No, the EU is not the only place we can trade. But outside we're likely to get a worse trading deal with the countries that already have a deal with the EU - and are likely to get a worse deal with the EU.

[ 13. December 2016, 11:11: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
You say that as if (a) our nearest neighbours with whom we currently trade more than anyone else will want to trade with us at something above the WTO rules and (b) these other countries will want to trade with us.

Why wouldn't they? Are you suggesting we have absolutely nothing to offer them?

quote:
Given how little we've invested in trade negotiators, never mind the diplomacy (and infrastructure investments) in Africa and elsewhere compared to China, that's quite a wild dream you've got there.
We haven't been allowed to invest in trade negotiators with non-EU countries, because the EU reserves all trade deals for member countries to itself. Leaving the EU is a necessary first step for the UK to begin negotiating in its own right with Asian and African economies.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Why wouldn't they? Are you suggesting we have absolutely nothing to offer them?

Why should they? What do you think we've got to offer?

quote:
We haven't been allowed to invest in trade negotiators with non-EU countries, because the EU reserves all trade deals for member countries to itself. Leaving the EU is a necessary first step for the UK to begin negotiating in its own right with Asian and African economies.
Ok, so whilst we train/recruit those negotiators, what are you thinking we'll be doing in the meantime?

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arse

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Eh? So you're saying that other trading partners will give the same - or better - deal to the UK outwith of the EU than it would have inside the EU bloc?

Why not? They wouldn't lose out by keeping the same terms but with "EU" replaced with "UK", and the sooner deals are agreed the better it will be for all parties.

quote:
Even though whilst inside this is part of a bigger trading bloc and outside is an isolated island.
The fifth largest economy in the world is "an isolated island". Sure.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Why not? They wouldn't lose out by keeping the same terms but with "EU" replaced with "UK", and the sooner deals are agreed the better it will be for all parties.

Because that's not how trading deals work. In fact that's not how any diplomacy works.

quote:
]The fifth largest economy in the world is "an isolated island". Sure.
That's right, we're special so we deserve preferential trading terms. Even though much of our economy is based on the service sector and much of that is based on the financial markets which are based in the UK due to the access to the EU.

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arse

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Why wouldn't they? Are you suggesting we have absolutely nothing to offer them?

Why should they? What do you think we've got to offer?
Everything we're currently offering. We're the fifth largest economy in the world - we must be doing something right!

But if you need specifics then financial services, aerospace manufacturing, education and pharmaceuticals are all areas in which we are amongst the best in the world.

quote:
Ok, so whilst we train/recruit those negotiators, what are you thinking we'll be doing in the meantime?
I would assume that training/recruiting the negotiators is one of the things we'll be doing in the two years between triggering Article 50 and actually leaving the EU.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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Delusion reigns.

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arse

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Callan
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# 525

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:
I would assume that training/recruiting the negotiators is one of the things we'll be doing in the two years between triggering Article 50 and actually leaving the EU.

I see. So during the two year negotiation period we will be recruiting and training negotiators whilst the EU negotiators will be driving a hard bargain on their behalf.

At the risk of talking Britain down, I think I may have identified a small flaw in that strategy.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
That's right, we're special so we deserve preferential trading terms. Even though much of our economy is based on the service sector and much of that is based on the financial markets which are based in the UK due to the access to the EU.

3/4 of our economy is the service sector, yes. But that sector is not as dependent on financial services as you make out. Don't get me wrong, it is important, but education (including higher education), healthcare, real estate and tourism are all in there as well. In fact, the real estate industry generates more gross value per year than the financial services industry (though I'll grant that most of that is purely internal).

Whether the financial markets are only here because of the EU remains to be seen. I haven't heard about any banks leaving yet, despite dire warnings back in June that many would have done so by now.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

Whether the financial markets are only here because of the EU remains to be seen. I haven't heard about any banks leaving yet, despite dire warnings back in June that many would have done so by now.

Maybe they are waiting for the government to show its hand, which it has been notably reluctant to do. Shortly after the referendum the plan was to invoke Article 50 in October, but that was quietly dropped and now it's scheduled for March. That will coincide with the Budget (near as dammit) and I have no doubt which will be regarded as more important by then.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
But if you need specifics then financial services

/qb]A significant portion of which is built on access to European financial markets. Depending on the form of Brexit, the UK may have no better access than the non-EU nations we'll be seeking to trade with.

quote:
[qb]aerospace manufacturing

Which includes a large amount of work on Airbus, a pan-European business, and the Eurofighter (the name speaks for itself)

quote:
education
With universities heavily dependent on staff and students from the EU, and research which has been heavily supported by EU funds and collaboration. And, also students from outwith the EU bringing lucrative fees - with the anti-foreigner policies of the government set to cut that substantial income source.

quote:
and pharmaceuticals
Supported by EU pharmaceutical institutions established in the UK, and now seeking alternative homes elsewhere in the EU. Also supported by UK universities and research labs which the government is planning to decimate by arbitrary and stupid restrictions on recruitment (see above).

quote:
are all areas in which we are amongst the best in the world.
At the moment, as part of the EU with access to EU money, staff and students, access to EU markets, collaboration with other EU businesses. How long will we remain among the best in the world when the axe is swung against the roots of these, restricting the flow of talent, money, business from the EU?

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Jane R
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Marvin:
quote:
education (including higher education), healthcare, real estate and tourism are all in there as well. In fact, the real estate industry generates more gross value per year than the financial services industry (though I'll grant that most of that is purely internal).
Let's see.

Education? Mostly internal, except for higher education. Mostly paid for by public funds (so the budget will go down if the economy shrinks, which every reputable forecaster seems to think it will). It could be argued that higher education is one of our major exports: universities have been encouraging students from outside the EU to study here because they can make a profit on them, which can then be used to plug (some of) the funding gap. Unfortunately, overseas students are waking up to the fact that a large proportion of the British population doesn't want them here and are going elsewhere. As for research - well, apparently British businesses don't believe in it. Pity, that, because we have some of the best brains in the world in this country. Do you honestly think they will stick around if they're offered jobs in a country that appreciates their work?

Healthcare? Well, if you're rich enough to pay for it I suppose. However most of the healthcare in this country is provided by the (seriously underfunded) NHS, which also has the delightful task of picking up the pieces after the private healthcare sector screws up. Again, mostly internal and publicly funded.

Real estate? According to this analysis, London's property market is the second most overvalued in the world. It's also driven by foreign investors who like to buy up newly built flats and then leave them sitting empty. Setting aside the question of whether this is a good thing, when there are thousands of British people who need decent housing, what do you think will happen if the foreign investors suddenly decide to move their money somewhere else? They aren't likely to have a sentimental attachment to Britain; they're in the game to make money and they don't like political uncertainty.

Tourism? This accounts for about 10% of the economy, which is good, but some of that will be internal tourism. If you want overseas visitors bringing money into the economy (as opposed to moving it from one British pocket to another) you will have to reconcile yourself to the sight of many more foreigners cluttering up your streets, and shut up all the xenophobic Brexiteers who are gloating over Taking Their Country Back. Most people do not enjoy going on holiday to places where they are not welcome.

You may think I'm being pessimistic. I think I'm being realistic. Hope for the best... prepare for the worst.

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Humble Servant
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# 18391

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
In fact, the real estate industry generates more gross value per year than the financial services industry (though I'll grant that most of that is purely internal).

Real value, or asset inflation?
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fletcher christian

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# 13919

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What nobody seems to mention - perhaps its the elephant in the room - is the haulage industry. The haulage industry in Britain provides huge numbers employment and represents approximately £30 billion. I'm not sure how immediate the effects of article 50 will be felt, but this seems to me to be the cold face of it, which is also why it amazes me that nobody is mentioning it. There is of course the internal haulage in the UK, but the vast majority of it is operative over Europe. How such a business could survive is slightly worrying. It's a great opportunity for the rest of Europe, but there are issues to consider like duty, which will have quite a powerful effect on a business like haulage.

If you were to take haulage as one example of where it all might hit, then a very large proportion of people stand to lose their jobs and a number of companies may not be able to make it in a changed market where everyone else in Europe is suddenly more competitive than them. This of course is but one example and I know there will be some that will say 'Oh but Europe will have to do something about this and give us a great deal in our terms for the exit' but the reality is you can't ask Europe to do you favours as you leave it.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
we have some of the best brains in the world in this country. Do you honestly think they will stick around if they're offered jobs in a country that appreciates their work?

Even that publication that is the subject of many Hell calls has acknowledged that Brexit has lead to a loss of research staff, with the most talented people not taking up vacancies and others actively seeking work elsewhere in Europe. I won't sully the thread with a link, but I'm sure you'll have no difficulty finding it if you're interested.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Jane R
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I'm guessing Marvin is not old enough to remember the 1970s brain drain, but many of the people who voted for Brexit are. I can only assume they have no idea how important universities are to the economy.
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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

But if you need specifics then financial services, aerospace manufacturing, education and pharmaceuticals are all areas in which we are amongst the best in the world.

Yeah, let's see how many parma companies have scaled back large sites in the UK in recent years; there is Pfizer in Kent, Zeneca in Loughborough, Covine in Alnwick, Novatis in Horsham, Pfizer in Cambridge, etc.

The whole industry, particularly in the UK, is in contraction.

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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[on a personal note, universities are quite important to those of us who work in them]

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
[on a personal note, universities are quite important to those of us who work in them]

All industries are important to those who work in them. Is this supposed to add something to this conversation?

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arse

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Even that publication that is the subject of many Hell calls has acknowledged that Brexit has lead to a loss of research staff, with the most talented people not taking up vacancies and others actively seeking work elsewhere in Europe.

Presumably that publication thinks they're all experts and the British people are better off without people who know what they're talking about?

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Marvin the Martian

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I simply refuse to accept that the UK is so utterly shit that it's incapable of surviving outside of the EU. I marvel that people can have such a negative view of their own country.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I simply refuse to accept that the UK is so utterly shit that it's incapable of surviving outside of the EU. I marvel that people can have such a negative view of their own country.

I wouldn't say incapable.

But, I would also question the validity of waving around the UKs current status (whether that's "5th largest economy" or our scientific or financial success) when that has been built on a foundation that has included EU membership. Take away that EU membership and many of our institutions and businesses will need to quite radically change to the new situation - and therefore the current status of the UK will be different. There are difficult times ahead, and I would be surprised if in 20 years time the UK is still leading the world in many of the areas where we currently do - which isn't the same as not surviving.

Of course, if it's considered important enough then the UK can adopt policies which will compensate for the losses following Brexit - eg: exempt relevant areas from immigration controls (eg: students, research staff, medical staff, financial workers ...), invest significant money in infrastructure and research, cut business taxes to compensate for increased expense if there are barriers to trade etc ... but, I don't really see the current government responding in such a sensible way, not least because doing so will show up just how big a bargain our membership of the EU is and therefore what a stupid idea Brexit is.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I simply refuse to accept that the UK is so utterly shit that it's incapable of surviving outside of the EU. I marvel that people can have such a negative view of their own country.

The UK is perfectly able to survive outside the EU. The benchmark you are trying to hit is one where the UK does a lot better outside the EU than it currently does inside, which is possible but only via some kind of long term progressive industrial and educational policy to which the PTB (and from everything you've said you too) are allergic.

Years ago when IDS was in charge of the Tories, there was a newspaper column which compared him to the people the columnist had seen in the pubs around Marylebone in the 50s, typically ex-RAF officers, who had all sorts of get rich quick schemes that involved getting into the wine or motor trade, the best of which ended in marrying a heiress. The current trend of trying to make trade policy on the hoof is very reminiscent of this kind of approach. The UK is very unlikely to end up in a better place by winging it.

[ 13. December 2016, 15:33: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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I would question whether there is anyone at all who believes that the UK can't survive outside the EU, yet it is something that you often hear bandied about. It is the ultimate brexiteer strawman.

"Survival" stopped being our benchmark of national wellbeing sometime around the time of Alfred the Great.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
I would question whether there is anyone at all who believes that the UK can't survive outside the EU, yet it is something that you often hear bandied about. It is the ultimate brexiteer strawman.

"Survival" stopped being our benchmark of national wellbeing sometime around the time of Alfred the Great.

I think it's posts like this one, which dismisses as a 'wild dream' any suggestion that non-EU countries will want to trade with us at anything better than WTO rules.

Given that plenty of other countries with economies worse than ours are able to make trade deals, the post in question seems to me unnecessarily pessimistic.

I do think this unremitting negativity from the Remain camp is unhelpful. Granted we will probably be worse off after Brexit, but not all outcomes are as bad as each other, and we should be lobbying for one of the better options. If we are just going to dismiss every possible outcome as crap because the world hates us or is indifferent to us, then this does nothing to advance the debate and leaves the stage clear to the actual Brexit loonies.

[ 14. December 2016, 05:20: Message edited by: Ricardus ]

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
I do think this unremitting negativity from the Remain camp is unhelpful. Granted we will probably be worse off after Brexit, but not all outcomes are as bad as each other, and we should be lobbying for one of the better options.

As you say, it's difficult to see any outcome which doesn't leave the UK economically, socially, culturally and politically worse off. Even the most optimistic of the Leavers only ever seem to suggest that the UK will be economically more prosperous if we can make favourable trade deals with the EU and a host of other nations - and the red, white and blue tinted spectacles tend to blot out the 'if' in that.

The other problem the Remain camp has always had is that we don't know what of the options we are campaigning against. A year after that should have been decided, at least in outline, and it's still a black box. And, when we stand up to campaign for what we believe to be the best option (which is to give up on this stupid Brexit idea and stay in the EU) we're blasted by the media, some have received death threats even. Yet, we then get told we're being unreasonably negative.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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I am not "from the Remain camp", I think for myself thanks very much.

The rosy Brexit future is based on getting good terms of trade from the EU (which they say isn't happening) and getting better-than-WTO terms from other countries.

The debate then must be around the likelihood of those things happening. I say the EU is unlikely to award good terms to the common market (because to do so would risk the collapse of the whole EU project) and thus it would be more expensive to trade with our nearest neighbours.

The trade deals that the EU has been seeking with the USA and Canada have been opposed by many due to the disproportionate corporate tradeoffs that they insist on having. Even if such deals were available to the UK (not a given) there may well be bitter opposition to those kinds of terms here.

China is interested in accessing large markets, and out of the EU we are part of a much smaller market. This suggests that the terms will be worse, but I suppose it is possible China will offer us a cracking deal without strings.

India might offer a deal. But then their investments in the UK steel industry have not been an unqualified success - so one might wonder at the extent to which Indian inwards investment in the UK would follow especially out with of the EU access.

Outward trade to these places is likely to be more difficult than current trade to the EU. So we'd be left with more expensive and more difficult trade with the EU or difficult trade with the other big players.

Other than woolly claims, I've not seen any reason for thinking that post-Brexit will be a success any time soon and lots to suggest it is going to be tough.

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arse

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Ricardus
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# 8757

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I am not "from the Remain camp", I think for myself thanks very much.

I would identify myself as part of the Remain camp on the grounds that I voted Remain. But since you find the term offensive I shall in future confine myself to strictly neutral expressions such as 'wild dreaming' and 'delusion reigns'.

The rest of your post is entirely true, but is equally true for other non-EU countries that nevertheless manage to cut deals.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:


The rest of your post is entirely true, but is equally true for other non-EU countries that nevertheless manage to cut deals.

Yeah let's talk about all those cracking deals other countries have gotten outwith of North America and the EU. Where and what are they?

Is Australia's trade deals as good as being in the EU? Is that even relevant given their enormous reserves of mineral resources - which we don't have any more anyway?

So come on, which countries in particular have trade deals you think are worth emulating?

[ 14. December 2016, 09:53: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:

The rest of your post is entirely true, but is equally true for other non-EU countries that nevertheless manage to cut deals.

Absolutely, and assuming there was indications of a clearly worked out plan for doing all this then scepticism would be misplaced.

As it is the UK is going to see a short term loss of trading arrangements (due to Brexit) and doesn't seem to have any idea of what to do in the mid-term to replace it (Trumpian pronouncements that include the word 'China' don't count as a plan).

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anteater

Ship's pest-controller
# 11435

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Alan C:
quote:
. . it's difficult to see any outcome which doesn't leave the UK economically, socially, culturally and politically worse off
I suppose what this implies is that, for you, even if the Brexiteers best case were to come about, we would still be worse off. And of course, this makes sense if you believe that the pooling of sovereignity within supranational organisations is better than continuance of the nation state.

This links very much with the concern of the lack of an EU demos, which is rather essential to democracy.

I am implying that (and I think this is widely accepted) a (mere) aggregate of individuals is not a functioning demos, which is why democracy is so tricky where you have countries divided into mutually suspicious groups, and which can only work as some sort of federal structure.

And one thing that unites a lot of Brexiteers and Europhiles is the belief that for the EU to fulfill its potential it needs to evolve into a federal structure. And for those who value that vision, I can fully understand their frustration at seeing it receding more and more.

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Schnuffle schnuffle.

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Ricardus
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# 8757

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

Is Australia's trade deals as good as being in the EU? Is that even relevant given their enormous reserves of mineral resources - which we don't have any more anyway?

I've said several times that I think we're better off in the EU. But you were claiming that no-one else wanted to trade with us on anything better than WTO rules.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
I've said several times that I think we're better off in the EU. But you were claiming that no-one else wanted to trade with us on anything better than WTO rules.

Go on then, if you are so knowledgeable about trade deals, educate us about the deals other countries have got. Which deals are better than WTO rules?

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arse

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Ricardus
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# 8757

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The ones that are made between WTO members. Otherwise, there wouldn't be any point in making them.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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Right, truth is you don't actually know do you.

Bilateral trade deals are agreed between countries, otherwise trade continues to WTO rules which include tariffs on products we otherwise export to the EU. Which either means our products are more expensive to export, other products are more expensive to import than they were to the EU or likely both.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that we would agree trade deals with individual countries, but they'd likely need to be negotiated individually. Some countries who have tariff free trade agreements with the EU may not want to have the same agreement with us.

And the fact is that outside of the EU, we've got precious little that anyone wants except for a consumer market. So you can't compare us to the USA (large internal market, large amount of raw materials), Australia (raw materials), Canada (petroleum, wood, natural resources plus location), Brazil (large internal market, agriculture, raw materials) Norway (paying for EU trade under EU rules), Russia (petroleum etc).

So, I ask again, who exactly are we thinking we will model our trade deals on and on what basis? It is just hotair, isn't it. You have absolutely no idea.

[ 14. December 2016, 15:53: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

So, I ask again, who exactly are we thinking we will model our trade deals on and on what basis?

The UK plans to carry out a trade deal of great advantage, but no one to know what it is.
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Ricardus
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# 8757

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[Axe murder] [Axe murder] Merry Christmas to you too mr cheesy. [Axe murder] [Axe murder]

(I'll respond properly later.)

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Eirenist
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# 13343

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In short, affluence has not made us happy, so we have voted for national impoverishment.

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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Ricardus
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OK, proper response to mr cheesy.

1. Fortunately for those who are full of hot air and have no idea what we are talking about, Wikipedia provides a list of bilateral trade agreements. Pick one where both sides are also WTO members. Is it a wild dream? Probably not, they stopped me editing Wikipedia just to support arguments on the Ship. Is it better than WTO rules alone? Probably, otherwise they wouldn't have bothered signing it. Would it work if 'United Kingdom' were substituted for either of the partners? Probably not, the whole point of a bilateral agreement is that it's bespoke to the signatories; the point is that such agreements are possible. Does each signatory have more to offer than the UK? Well, if one signatory is a country the chances are that the economy is smaller. Jordan is in there with a trade deal with the US. (And before anyone says 'Aha! Oil!' Jordan does not in fact have any oil.)

2. The UK has a bunch of trade agreements with non-EU countries via the EU. Obviously these will lapse once we leave the EU, and the questions are a.) whether we will be allowed to grandfather the EU rules until we make a deal of our own, and b.) whether they will actually be interested in continuing a relationship. Point (a) is discussed in some depth here (conclusion: maybe). On point (b) the major cause for optimism is that unlike most trade deals we would not have to faff about agreeing standards because our standards are already sufficiently harmonised by virtue of the existing agreement within the EU.

3. On the specific question of what I think a post-Brexit trading arrangement should look like: I think we should join EFTA. You get an emergency brake on migration, you get to make deals outside the bloc, the arbitrator is apparently qualitatively different from the EU*, its existing members have spoken positively about the possibility (link and link) and you get single market access. Granted this is not a popular option within our beloved government but I'd still say it has more of a chance of happening than a rerun of the referendum.

* Mr Davis was asked this afternoon if he accepted that joining any kind of trading bloc would imply subjecting Britain to the oversight of whatever body arbitrates disputes within the bloc. He said yes but it would be totally different from EU oversight. I'm not overwhelmingly convinced by the distinction he makes but if it works for him ...

[ 14. December 2016, 23:00: Message edited by: Ricardus ]

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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alienfromzog

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# 5327

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The thing is, it's not about Tariffs. Not really. Tariffs are easy. Have them, don't have them. It's a marginal cost on trade but actually a small one.

What it's really about is harmonisation of regulation. And this is hugely complicated. Financial products, food, cars, electronics etc. Etc.

Imagine if Manchester and London had different food safety rules, the farmer raising cattle in Cheshire can't sell it to a London restaurant. Clearly that's crazy. So we have rules about animal husbandry, use of antibiotics, arbortoir, packaging and refrigeration. This is what means I can buy food with a high degree of confidence that I won't get food poisoning.

Or look are car manufacturing, complex supply chains and lots of safety critical parts. Imagine for a moment that a new manufacturer wants to sell cars into the UK from, say Ghana (pick any country you like). They would have to be build to UK legal standards or they wouldn't be allowed to sell.

Trade deals are all about agreeing common rules. So that EU car manufacturers can make cars and sell them to all EU countries without adhering to 28 different standards. There are essentially 2 ways to do this: either you go for the lowest common denominator and have minimal regulation or you have detailed negotiations and agree rules that work for everyone. That's complicated but the EU has spend 40 years doing it.

As the UK leaves the EU, one of two things will happen. Either UK regulation will diverge from the EU and British business will face increasing costs and lower productivity and the bigger cost to the nation of running these regulatorary framework rather than sharing the cost with other EU nations. Or the UK will just copy the EU rules- effectively being governed by the EU whilst having no say in writing the rules! Currently, if you talk to people who actually know what they're talking about, virtually nothing happens in the EU unless the big three (Germany, France and UK) agree. The notion that the UK is dictated to by Europe is just ridiculous.

The UK is the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world and we are still a big manufacturer but leaving the EU will be a big dent on UK productivity. This is why there's a big cost to leaving.

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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