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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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What do you call it when you want to leave a trading bloc, which you've benefited from for decades, and instead think you can negotiate a better deal with it from outside?

Delusional or just dishonest?

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my new book: Biblical But Bollocks. Available in all good bookshops.

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quetzalcoatl
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But hard Brexit isn't really about economic benefits, is it? I thought that it's about anti-immigration and deregulation, and May is delivering this in spades. Presumably, some Brexiteers will be delighted by it; does anyone have an idea of the economic consequences? I doubt it. It all looks like a complete gamble to me.

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no path

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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It's just making the best of a bad job. It has to be this way. Seems the best bet for not losing (more) friends and alienating people (further).
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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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And TBH I am not sure whether Brexit will be good or bad for the UK economically. I don't think economics is a well-enough-understood thing to predict this. My Brexit concerns have always been about geopolitics. Aim should therefore be to cause as little additional bad feeling as possible as we depart.
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Delusional or just dishonest?

Neither are strong enough words, but both could apply. Deranged works as well.

And, to top it off the whole thing makes a mockery of democracy. Mrs May and her party were elected on a manifesto to support free trade. The people of Britain spoke in 2015, in support of free trade. Nothing subsequent to that changes that mandate for the government to do all that it can to maintain free trade agreements, and to extend those to encompass other nations. She seems to be trying to double guess the people of Britain by assuming that the June 2016 result must mean "control immigration at all costs". If she wants to know whether the people of the UK want that then she should call another referendum to ask that question.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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Keir Starmer, the Labour Brexit shadow, seems to think that May has ruled out a Hard Brexit.

But I don't understand what this means. How can a Brexit outside of the common market be anything other than Hard?

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my new book: Biblical But Bollocks. Available in all good bookshops.

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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
And TBH I am not sure whether Brexit will be good or bad for the UK economically. I don't think economics is a well-enough-understood thing to predict this. My Brexit concerns have always been about geopolitics. Aim should therefore be to cause as little additional bad feeling as possible as we depart.

OK we don't know. But we can try to read the tea-leaves, and it seems fairly clear that being part of a large trading bloc gives advantages (both in terms of an internal market and in terms of overseas negotiating power) that being an individual country we do not have.

So say we agree a trade deal with Trump's America. What are the chances that he's going to negotiate a fair deal rather than one where he gets all the things US businesses want but couldn't get with the EU (for example free trade in agricultural products treated with hormones etc) and won't allow the things he doesn't (I don't know, Welsh lamb which might directly compete with US lamb)?

What's the bets that any deal we agree with the EU will be worse for us in Wales (the only part of the UK that trades more with the EU than we receive in trade from it), or that the loss in structural payments from the EU will be greater than anything supplied by Westminster?

All fairly high, I should think. London may indeed benefit, the chances of Wales, Scotland Northern Ireland and some parts of England seeing an economic advantage from Brexit are pretty slim in my estimation.

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my new book: Biblical But Bollocks. Available in all good bookshops.

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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It's certainly being viewed as a hard Brexit on this side of the Channel.

Again from this side of the Channel, it's hard to understand the UK's apparent supreme confidence that it can do better alone than in an existing trading alliance.

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
So say we agree a trade deal with Trump's America.

Which isn't going to happen (and, anyone who thinks otherwise joins the ranks of the delusional). There may be a trade deal between the US and UK, but by the time it's signed Trump will not be President - even if he gets a second term it's still not enough time.

quote:
London may indeed benefit, the chances of Wales, Scotland Northern Ireland and some parts of England seeing an economic advantage from Brexit are pretty slim in my estimation.
Pretty slim = non-existant in my estimation. I struggle to see what economic benefit London would get either.

But, it's not about economics. It's "keep them foreigners out, whatever the cost". The sooner Scotland gets independence so I'm not living in the UK the better, not being governed by racists bastards would be worth almost any cost.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
So we are 'leaving the single market' but at the same time want 'the greatest possible access to it'? [Roll Eyes] [brick wall]

Yes. We presumably also want the greatest possible access to the American, Australian, Chinese, Indian and Brazilian markets.

Once we've left the EU, it will be just one more market for us to seek to do business in. Leaving the EU won't mean never doing any business with it ever again, but it will mean we're freer to do business with other markets as well. The big economic question of the next decade or so is whether gains in the other markets will be sufficient to outweigh losses in the EU one.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Leaving the EU won't mean never doing any business with it ever again, but it will mean we're freer to do business with other markets as well.

Being in the EU does not preclude us from doing business with other markets - you are presenting a false choice.

Yes, there is room for growth in trade to other markets - but in most cases we start from a fairly low base, and trade flows just don't shift that fast (they'll take a long time to increase by any substantial amount, and even if they double or triple they'll be responsible for a small fraction of 1% of GDP).

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Anselmina
Ship's barmaid
# 3032

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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
And TBH I am not sure whether Brexit will be good or bad for the UK economically. I don't think economics is a well-enough-understood thing to predict this.

I agree. And yet the Brexit politicians were - past tense? - so sure how better off economically we'd all be once we'd exited the Union. With immigration 'properly' controlled, and British jobs going to British people and British people enjoying the British welfare and benefits system and British money being diverted to the NHS and education and not the European Union, ah, how wondrously better off we'll all be.

And so many voters convinced by these assurances, but based on what exactly? I'm not an economist, but I don't remember seeing any evidence for this from Boris and his Brexit Brains Trust, or Farage for that matter. I can only suppose that people are considerably less cynical about politicians' promises than I am?

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Leaving the EU won't mean never doing any business with it ever again, but it will mean we're freer to do business with other markets as well.

Being in the EU does not preclude us from doing business with other markets - you are presenting a false choice.
I said "freer". As a member of the EU, that organisation controls the terms by which we can trade with anyone else. As a non-member, we will be able to agree those terms on our own.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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It's a clever speech, as she does want to keep the same trading arrangements for some things, such as cars and financial services. That sounds like the single market, a la carte, doesn't it?

I notice Starmer cottoned on to this, and is saying that it's not hard Brexit.

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no path

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Martin60
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What am I bid on corporation tax? Which multinationals will give me 18%? 17.5% OK 15% I can't go lower than 12.5 I really can't. OK 10.

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Love wins

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Callan
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# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
And TBH I am not sure whether Brexit will be good or bad for the UK economically. I don't think economics is a well-enough-understood thing to predict this. My Brexit concerns have always been about geopolitics. Aim should therefore be to cause as little additional bad feeling as possible as we depart.

Well, if we end up conducting 88% of our foreign trade on worse terms than we currently do, it's difficult to see the economic benefits.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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There's no alternative now. "Getting more realistic" says Donald Tusk. That's about the size of it.
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Rocinante
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# 18541

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May's strategy now seems to be "we hope there'll still be some cake left after we've eaten it."

Getting there, but still a bit of denial going on.

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
the single market, a la carte

We on this side of the Channel don't understand that expression.

If you shout it loud enough, I'm sure we eventually will though [Roll Eyes]

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

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Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
It's a clever speech, as she does want to keep the same trading arrangements for some things, such as cars and financial services. That sounds like the single market, a la carte, doesn't it?

It sounds to me like a trading agreement between the UK and the EU. How is that different in principle to, say, what Canada and Australia have been negotiating with the EU?
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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Leaving the EU won't mean never doing any business with it ever again, but it will mean we're freer to do business with other markets as well.

Being in the EU does not preclude us from doing business with other markets - you are presenting a false choice.
I said "freer". As a member of the EU, that organisation controls the terms by which we can trade with anyone else. As a non-member, we will be able to agree those terms on our own.
We chooses the crumbs, we gets now sir, and we right appreciates it.

Much better than choosing what loaf to make. [Roll Eyes]

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I said "freer". As a member of the EU, that organisation controls the terms by which we can trade with anyone else. As a non-member, we will be able to agree those terms on our own.

Which is a case of voting for an abstract benefit with real cost (presumably bourne by other people). Good luck getting 'better' terms (unless you mean lower standards for someone else somewhere).
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
It's a clever speech, as she does want to keep the same trading arrangements for some things, such as cars and financial services. That sounds like the single market, a la carte, doesn't it?

It sounds to me like a trading agreement between the UK and the EU. How is that different in principle to, say, what Canada and Australia have been negotiating with the EU?
It is, of course, no different. That's exactly the point - Mrs May is proposing a complete exit from the EU followed by a negotiation of a trade deal. Which is what has been generally called a "hard Brexit".

And, of course, those trade negotiations will take an extended period of time. So, we won't see the benefits of these new trade arrangements for a decade, and in the meantime trade with the EU on less favourable terms. We won't have any new trade deals with anyone else any quicker either, of course.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
And, of course, those trade negotiations will take an extended period of time. So, we won't see the benefits of these new trade arrangements for a decade, and in the meantime trade with the EU on less favourable terms. We won't have any new trade deals with anyone else any quicker either, of course.

Given the high stakes involved, I would've thought there would be every incentive for the EU to conclude a trade agreement with its new largest trading partner pretty quickly?

And other countries are making the right noises about getting on with a negotiation.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
And, of course, those trade negotiations will take an extended period of time. So, we won't see the benefits of these new trade arrangements for a decade, and in the meantime trade with the EU on less favourable terms. We won't have any new trade deals with anyone else any quicker either, of course.

Given the high stakes involved, I would've thought there would be every incentive for the EU to conclude a trade agreement with its new largest trading partner pretty quickly?

And other countries are making the right noises about getting on with a negotiation.

I think the stakes are higher for one country of about 60 million than a single bloc of 27 countries with a combined GDP of more than five times that of the UK.

It is however true that other countries are "making noises" but any deals will need to take account of the likely future trading landscape and I doubt that any deals will be signed while there is uncertainty in the air. It is clear to me that some sort of deal with the whole EU would be best. But that is what we had when we were members and the anti-EU Tories would regard it as a colossal climb down and would far rather impoverish future generations than that.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
And other countries are making the right noises about getting on with a negotiation.

That would include the politicians saying that the speech was a "F*** you" to the EU, and otherwise making all the wrong noises about negotiating on the terms Mrs May wants? It only takes one of those 27 sovereign nations to dig in their heels and the whole thing will fall through.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
And other countries are making the right noises about getting on with a negotiation.

That would include the politicians saying that the speech was a "F*** you" to the EU, and otherwise making all the wrong noises about negotiating on the terms Mrs May wants? It only takes one of those 27 sovereign nations to dig in their heels and the whole thing will fall through.
Which one do you think will scupper a trade deal with the EU's new largest trading partner? Which EU country can afford to take that risk?
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Surely that depends on the deal that is cooked up. But, suppose a deal is arranged that doesn't cover something of importance to one EU nation so they don't actually gain anything, but the deal covers widgit exports to the EU and that nation also makes widgits and without a deal they would be more competitive in selling to the rest of the EU. Wouldn't they be tempted to stand out for including something in the deal that benefits them (either including something they do trade with the UK, or excluding widgits from the deal)?

Add to that, if the UK manages to squirm out of EU regulations (eg: working conditions, environmental protection etc) such that the costs of UK manufactured goods falls (at a cost to workers and the environment) would anyone in the EU like to see that sort of unfair competition? And, as a consequence insist that any deal includes the UK agreeing to maintain legislation on such issues as workers rights that are compatible with current and future EU regulations? Would that be a deal acceptable to Mrs May, or is that the sort of "not good for the UK" deal she won't accept?

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110

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It looks as though Theresa May really believes this can get done without damage. Or maybe she is just forced to sound confident, since the "we've made a terrible mistake and must turn back" option won't fly within her party.

Net result of project is that it will follow the following sequence.

Wild enthusiasm
Confusion
Disillusionment
Search for the guilty
Punishment of the innocent
Reset

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

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In other news, Boris Johnson assures us that trade deals with other countries can be 'pencilled in'.

(pause for howls of outrage from all lawyers, civil servants and in fact any Shipmate with half a brain).

Every time that man opens his mouth his brains fall out. Presumably he has an assistant with the job of finding them and stuffing them back in, or he wouldn't have any left.

[Mad]

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Martin60
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# 368

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Corbyn 2020! ... No. Great Yarmouth and Boston and Spalding and Aldeburgh are FREE of Balts picking OUR beets and flooding OUR schools and hospitals. Replaced by BRITISH robots. The 10% corporation tax City and Penny Pound tourism and 20% tax on the 80% of foreign car imports will save us those foreigners will have to pay like a Mexican wall. But if not ... in the words of Shadrack & Co., we English shall burn proud and free. Scotland? Where's that?

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Love wins

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Callan
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# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
And other countries are making the right noises about getting on with a negotiation.

That would include the politicians saying that the speech was a "F*** you" to the EU, and otherwise making all the wrong noises about negotiating on the terms Mrs May wants? It only takes one of those 27 sovereign nations to dig in their heels and the whole thing will fall through.
Which one do you think will scupper a trade deal with the EU's new largest trading partner? Which EU country can afford to take that risk?
Until yesterday a load of Europeans were quietly saying to themselves - of course the Brits won't do it. They'd have to be mad. I suggest that you are making a similar miscalculation.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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There are quite a few Brits who are not so quietly telling anyone who will listen that we hope we won't do this, because it is madness. The more idiocy spouted by Mrs May and her incompetant cabinet, the more determined we become to fight this every step of the way. We may not be able to stop Brexit, but we can try our hardest to limit the damage on the way, and try our hardest to get this idiocy reversed and recover as much as possible of what has already been lost and what Mrs May is likely to throw away before she's through.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There are quite a few Brits who are not so quietly telling anyone who will listen that we hope we won't do this, because it is madness. The more idiocy spouted by Mrs May and her incompetant cabinet, the more determined we become to fight this every step of the way. We may not be able to stop Brexit, but we can try our hardest to limit the damage on the way, and try our hardest to get this idiocy reversed and recover as much as possible of what has already been lost and what Mrs May is likely to throw away before she's through.

True, but then there are some of us that are younger (I'm in my 30s), don't have dual nationality, and who therefore have to live with the consequences of what we end up with. General mood yesterday on my (Remain/Lib Dem graduate oriented) facebook feed was "at least now there's a plan, doesn't look as bad as it could be, Labour's going nowhere, Farron hasn't got a chance, UKIP's fox has been shot, that speech was quite impressive*, ok, time to make it work."

The Scottish contingent are particularly gloomy, as they don't think a second independence vote will go Yes' way. To my surprise (but then they're soft Yes, not Wings over Scotland subscribers). Those with their own businesses or who work in the Scottish financial or local government sectors seem to be tracking across to NO FWIW.

Yesterday was the day I finally climbed over the fence onto the making Leave work side. I haven't got the time/energy after doing a day's work to fight it, so might as well plan for the future.

*I'm not remotely expecting you to think it was an impressive speech - but if her aim was to win over more of the centre ground that don't have the time or energy to forensically point out all the flaws and contradictions inherent in any political vision and just want someone, anywhere, to show some leadership, then I'd say it worked.

I've been consistent all along that I was on the fence anyway and a reluctant Remainer, but I've now decided to get on with making it work outside the EU. Life's too short (for me) not to. I acknowledge that others in different circumstances will reach the conclusion that life's too short not to fight it, and that's fair enough.

FWIW, while I admire the certainty that this is "idiocy" and "incompetence" I also can't relate to it. That's not a Pollyanna-ish determination to see the best in everything, so much as an unwillingness to accept that there is only one objective truth and one person has found it (and as a consequence everyone else is wrong).

Particularly when the subject under consideration is a combination of politics and economics, both of which are proverbially willo-the-wisp.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Add to that, if the UK manages to squirm out of EU regulations (eg: working conditions, environmental protection etc) such that the costs of UK manufactured goods falls (at a cost to workers and the environment) would anyone in the EU like to see that sort of unfair competition?

The only reason it would be unfair competition is because the EU won't let its member countries do the same. Or to put it another way, the EU is deliberately forcing its member countries to be uncompetitive. There's a reason so much of the manufacturing that was being done in Europe 40 years ago is now being done in places like China and Bangladesh.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Add to that, if the UK manages to squirm out of EU regulations (eg: working conditions, environmental protection etc) such that the costs of UK manufactured goods falls (at a cost to workers and the environment) would anyone in the EU like to see that sort of unfair competition?

The only reason it would be unfair competition is because the EU won't let its member countries do the same. Or to put it another way, the EU is deliberately forcing its member countries to be uncompetitive. There's a reason so much of the manufacturing that was being done in Europe 40 years ago is now being done in places like China and Bangladesh.
Or, to put it another way Europe is setting the standard for, well, standards, rather than sinking to the lowest common denominator. And, there are strong popular movements within European nations, and beyond, for manufacturers and governments elsewhere to up their game in terms of workers conditions (eg: boycots of suppliers who don't meet minimum requirements in relation to hours, health and safety, child labour etc), environmental protection, product quality and so on. When it comes down to it, things like working hours directives are popular and supported by the electorates of European nations.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Marvin the Martian

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# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
"...ok, time to make it work."

That's my attitude as well.

Britain leaving the EU is going to happen, so we can either all pull together to make it work as well as possible for Britain or we can keep bitching about the fact that it's happening, undermining it at every opportunity and basically hoping it fails so we can say "I told you so". For me, there's only one rational choice there, and it's not the one that essentially copies the Republican Party's response to Barack Obama being President.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
There's a reason so much of the manufacturing that was being done in Europe 40 years ago is now being done in places like China and Bangladesh.

[Roll Eyes] The types of manufacturing that were being done 40 years ago are drastically different from the types of manufacturing done now, so that's a silly comparison.

But yes, the UK could 'compete' with Foxconn on jobs as long the workers were willing to endure a drastic drop in living standards, and as long as the country was willing to bear the environmental problems that come with running industry along that model and externalising the environmental costs (the other reason it is cheap).

and now, we've moved from sunlight uplands to dark satanic mills.

[ 18. January 2017, 10:52: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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Martin60
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# 368

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How are you going to do that penultimate comment Alan? That charismatic claim?

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Love wins

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TurquoiseTastic

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# 8978

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Nononononono. The way for a rich country to become competitive in manufacturing is not to try to undercut labour costs, but to have lots of capital investment, raising productivity. This is how the Germans do it and how the Japanese did it in the 80s. That's why things like Nissan in Sunderland are good.
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Marvin the Martian

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# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Or, to put it another way Europe is setting the standard for, well, standards, rather than sinking to the lowest common denominator.

And the result is that it's haemorrhaging manufacturing jobs to Asia.

quote:
And, there are strong popular movements within European nations, and beyond, for manufacturers and governments elsewhere to up their game in terms of workers conditions (eg: boycots of suppliers who don't meet minimum requirements in relation to hours, health and safety, child labour etc), environmental protection, product quality and so on.
I'm not sure those movements are as strong as you make out. Sure, they're pretty loud, but the number of people who will just quietly keep buying the cheaper goods for as long as they're available is far higher.

Most people like the idea of good conditions for workers, but they like the idea of cheap consumer goods even more.

quote:
When it comes down to it, things like working hours directives are popular and supported by the electorates of European nations.
Of course they are - nobody wants to have no such protections. All I'm saying is, what good are worker protection laws if they mean the workers don't actually have jobs any more because all the factories have buggered off to somewhere cheaper?

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Rocinante
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Unfortunately in Britain, "being competitive" means "leading a race to the bottom which will only end when we're all working 20-hour shifts in unheated sheds for 75pence an hour".
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Marvin the Martian

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# 4360

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I find this current theme to be quite amusingly discordant with other arguments in favour of EU membership, as exemplified by the "fruit pickers" issue. You know, the one where we have to bring in EU migrants to pick our fruit because British people aren't prepared to do it for the wages offered, and shoppers wouldn't be prepared to pay the extra amounts at the till that would be required to employ them.

Because that's basically the same issue as what we're discussing here, albeit that in that case it's the workers that move rather than the factories. But in both cases the actual work goes to the ones who are prepared to do it for the lowest price, and the ones who have higher standards go unemployed.

Does anyone else find it incredibly interesting that whether we agree or disagree with the issue (and yes, I include myself in that) depends on whether it's the people or the companies that are moving?

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Hail Gallaxhar

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Nononononono. The way for a rich country to become competitive in manufacturing is not to try to undercut labour costs, but to have lots of capital investment, raising productivity. This is how the Germans do it and how the Japanese did it in the 80s. That's why things like Nissan in Sunderland are good.

Absolutely, but Martin was specifically talking about ('trying to take back') the jobs in China and Bangladesh.
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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Britain leaving the EU is going to happen, so we can either all pull together to make it work as well as possible for Britain or we can keep bitching about the fact that it's happening

Ah, but the difficulty is that we disagree on what's best for Britain (or, even if that's the sole criteria for consideration).

So, as you know, I firmly believe that what's best for Britain and good for the rest of the EU is for the UK to remain in the EU. As you say, that's not going to happen (though theoretically it's not too late to stop Brexit). So, what is the best of the other options?

For me the best includes:
  • Maintaining access to the labour force the country needs, and allowing UK citizens the opportunity to live, work and study wherever is best for them. So, maintain freedom of movement between the UK and the EU.
  • Maintain free markets for goods and services between the UK and EU.
  • Maintain cooperation and collaboration on science and technology, on environmental protection (including fish stocks).
  • Maintain participation in and support for regional development to continue to lift the economies of the poorer parts of Europe, which will be a cost to the UK (but, recognising that this has benefited the UK in the past).
  • Maintain conformity in worker and consumer protection across the EU, ideally keeping the UK at the negotiating table rather than have those imposed on us.
  • Regain EU membership at the earliest opportunity.
None of which appears to be in Mrs Mays' thinking.

If I stand up for those principles, which I agree are effectively EU membership in all but name (but, without any UK MEPs), is that "bitching about it happening" or working for the best for the UK?

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
How are you going to do that penultimate comment Alan? That charismatic claim?

Can you clarify which comment you're refering to? Give me a fighting chance at answering your question.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Barnabas62
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I worked as a professional negotiator, both in buying and selling goods and services, and in industrial relations disputes.

My opinion on making Brexit work is that the odds are stacked very high against a result which will leave the UK better off in the short and medium term. Nor is there any clear evidence that we will benefit in the longer term.

It's simply a fact that the UK starting position is weak. The best deal possible will mean the least bad deal possible. We aren't helped by the lack of skilled negotiators in the UK public servuces. For that reason alone, the odds favour a sub-optimal settlement. The optimal settlement would not be very good.

This isn't a political opinion. It's simply a view of the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the respective negotiating positions. I'm not the only one who holds that view.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I worked as a professional negotiator, both in buying and selling goods and services, and in industrial relations disputes.

My opinion on making Brexit work is that the odds are stacked very high against a result which will leave the UK better off in the short and medium term. Nor is there any clear evidence that we will benefit in the longer term.

It's simply a fact that the UK starting position is weak. The best deal possible will mean the least bad deal possible. We aren't helped by the lack of skilled negotiators in the UK public servuces. For that reason alone, the odds favour a sub-optimal settlement. The optimal settlement would not be very good.

This isn't a political opinion. It's simply a view of the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the respective negotiating positions. I'm not the only one who holds that view.

I completely agree with you FWIW. That's partly why I've climbed down off the fence on the basis that it's time for "all good men to come to the aid of the party."

OK, I can't do much at governmental level, but I can help my firm, my industry and my family and community make the best of it. I'm still ambivalent about the vote, and Remain would have made life a hell of a lot easier, but here's where we are.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Martin60
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# 368

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It were this one Alan, but you actually addressed my question subsequently:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There are quite a few Brits who are not so quietly telling anyone who will listen that we hope we won't do this, because it is madness. The more idiocy spouted by Mrs May and her incompetant cabinet, the more determined we become to fight this every step of the way. We may not be able to stop Brexit, but we can try our hardest to limit the damage on the way, and try our hardest to get this idiocy reversed and recover as much as possible of what has already been lost and what Mrs May is likely to throw away before she's through.

Your answer is ideal and none of it will happen. It's race to the bottom time with London as the ultimate tax haven.

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Love wins

Posts: 15961 | From: More Corieltauvi than Dobunni now. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
the "fruit pickers" issue. You know, the one where we have to bring in EU migrants to pick our fruit because British people aren't prepared to do it for the wages offered

The issue isn't, of course, just wages. There are lots of people in the UK who take minimum wage jobs, perfectly willing to accept the wages offered.

The bigger issues actually reflect working conditions, most of which are intrinsic to the industry. By definition, fruit picking is seasonal work. In any one location there may only be demand for extra labour for a few weeks - this would be a useful bonus for unemployed people in the immediate vicinity, but for anyone else this means that in addition to the work itself they would need to relocate for a short period of time. For someone who wants to work for extended periods of time they need to be prepared to keep on moving to where the work is. That may not be a problem for some people, but as you get older, get married, have children etc then it's good to settle down in one place.

The other unavoidable working condition is that fruit harvesting is physically demanding work. A lot of bending and lifting. And, there are some skills involved as well. When the crops are only at the point of harvest for a short time there would also be long hours to get everything in. Even though the unemployment figures suggest that there should be enough people in the UK, the demands of the job are such that only a small proportion of those who be able to fill the labour gap.

Of course, this is nothing new. The UK agricultural sector (as well as other seasonal employment) has always relied on migrant labour. Gangs of labourers who would move up and down the coast to process fish, following the migration of the fish up and down the North Sea. Families who would take their holidays in the country, working the farms at harvest time. Industrial scale agriculture has never been able to sustain a large permanent work force, but has always managed to sustain a work force willing and able to move around to follow the labour demands.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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