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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
It's difficult to work out what May is up to at the moment. An early election seems to offer so many advantages to her, not least no longer being held to ransom by her own Brexit Berserkers.
Her brexit strategy seems to be "give people what they say they want and see how they like it", which smacks of Nanny, and children learning lessons the hard way.
Not even particularly appropriate: as has been said many times, no-one voted for hard Brexit. Some people may actually want it, but we can be fairly certain they are in a smaller minority than Remainers.
The clues may have been there all along; "Brexit means brexit" (with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight) implied that if we leave, we leave everything. If that had been made clear before the referendum, I suspect the result would have been very different.
Yep. And this needs to be emphasised every time the Leavers come out with "The will of the people" nonsense.
In terms of an election, the Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it tricky. I don't think May wants to invest the parliamentary time needed.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Nope.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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anteater
Ship's pest-controller
# 11435
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Posted
Alienfromzog: quote:
In terms of an election, the Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it tricky. I don't think May wants to invest the parliamentary time needed.
Are you sure of that?
I have previously referred to a widespread belief that all she needs is a one-line Bill stating that notwithstanding the Act, the next General Election will be at such and such a date.
Labour might chicken out, and the Lords might meddle to remind us they exist. But I belive it is totally legal.
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Schnuffle schnuffle.
Posts: 2538 | From: UK | Registered: May 2006
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
Alienfromzog: quote:
In terms of an election, the Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it tricky. I don't think May wants to invest the parliamentary time needed.
Are you sure of that?
I have previously referred to a widespread belief that all she needs is a one-line Bill stating that notwithstanding the Act, the next General Election will be at such and such a date.
Labour might chicken out, and the Lords might meddle to remind us they exist. But I belive it is totally legal.
Indeed. But even a one sentence bill needs 3 readings in each house.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
Alienfromzog: quote:
In terms of an election, the Fixed Term Parliament Act makes it tricky. I don't think May wants to invest the parliamentary time needed.
Are you sure of that?
I have previously referred to a widespread belief that all she needs is a one-line Bill stating that notwithstanding the Act, the next General Election will be at such and such a date.
Labour might chicken out, and the Lords might meddle to remind us they exist. But I belive it is totally legal.
Indeed. But even a one sentence bill needs 3 readings in each house.
AFZ
And a Committee Stage. Committee Stages have sunk and delayed many a Bill and a simple Bill could easily attract a lot of fire for things like unforeseen and unintended consequences. After all, the referendum question was simple but no one knew what the consequences of an "out" vote would be.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Sioni:
quote:
After all, the referendum question was simple but no one knew what the consequences of an "out" vote would be.
I think they did and there were many voices, but you had to search. It was certainly covered rather thoroughly in the European press. In the UK though, it seemed nobody was listening and for whatever reason, nobody wanted to hear it.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Sioni:
quote:
After all, the referendum question was simple but no one knew what the consequences of an "out" vote would be.
I think they did and there were many voices, but you had to search. It was certainly covered rather thoroughly in the European press. In the UK though, it seemed nobody was listening and for whatever reason, nobody wanted to hear it.
There were many voices because there were many definitions of Brexit, even within the official Leave campaign and more if you introduce what UKIP and others were saying. And, then there was disagreement about what the consequences of the different versions of Brexit would be. It was a cacophany of voices that made hearing any of them difficult, even for those trying to listen.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
I still don't know what 'versions of Brexit' means though. I've said it a few times on this thread (possibly to the point of weariness, so I do apologise) but all this talk of 'soft' Brexit and maintaining this and keeping that all sounds daft for the rest of us in Europe. It is essentially saying; 'we want none of the responsibilities but will retain all of the benefits even though we are voting to leave'. It just doesn't make any sense.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I don't think soft Brexit means retaining all of the advantages. It means free movement of goods, but not people.
However, this will probably hit various obstacles, for example, that the EU won't like it. Also, the question of customs regulations is very complicated, since you are moving from harmonisation (convergence) to divergence. How do you export to countries with different systems?
I noticed that the Daily Express had a headline saying that tariffs could be settled in ten minutes. This shows the illiteracy of some journalists and probably some politicians. Do they realize how difficult it is to develop a mutual trading system, with the inspection of goods, vehicles, drivers, point of origin, blah blah blah?
[ 08. March 2017, 15:20: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I still don't know what 'versions of Brexit' means though.
It means that post-Brexit there are several options for the relationship between the EU and UK. Broadly there are three clusters of versions of Brexit:
- Where the UK remains within the free trade area, has access to some EU institutions (eg: research funding), but is not a member of the EU. Think of something like the relationship between the EU and Norway. This is the so-called "soft Brexit".
- Where all ties between the EU and the UK are severed, and the relationship is the same as between practically any non-European nation and the EU - initially trading under WTO rules, and then (probably) seeking to negotiate trade deals post-Brexit. This is the so-called "hard Brexit".
- Something in-between where a bespoke agreement is reached prior to Brexit, with trade deals that cover some goods and services but not full access to the free trade area and no obligations to allow free movement of people. Which is the almost impossible path Mrs May seems to want to walk.
What our government seems to be saying at the moment is that they will try for a deal they want (whether or not that's what the British people want), and if they don't get it then we will default to version 2.
Though the Leave campaign were woefully imprecise in what they wanted prior to the referendum, it was closer to a version 1 than version 3 by a long shot. So, assuming those who voted Leave did so because they liked the vague promises of the Leave campaign (and, what else do we have to go on?) then it seems to me that the mandate the government has is to try for something with less ties to the EU than a version 1, but probably default to a version 1 if that's not possible - or even Brexit to a version 1 and then negotiate our way further from the EU if needed.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I noticed that the Daily Express had a headline saying that tariffs could be settled in ten minutes. This shows the illiteracy of some journalists and probably some politicians. Do they realize how difficult it is to develop a mutual trading system, with the inspection of goods, vehicles, drivers, point of origin, blah blah blah?
I read somewhere that negotiations between Canada and the EU have been going on for seven years. If you had to rank nations by trustworthiness I think Canada would be well up the list. A good deal higher than Britain at any rate.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I was looking at the customs union between Turkey and the EU, and article 8 says, 'Turkey unconditionally accepts to make parallel laws to the newer laws made for the customs union by the EU'.
Ignoring the grammatical infelicities, can you imagine something like that being acceptable to the Brexit headbangers?
But then they bravely talk about 'walking away'? WTF does that mean? That we actually stop trading with the EU? What is that, £200 billions in exports? Better start growing turnips in my garden.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union%E2%80%93Turkey_Customs_Union
[ 08. March 2017, 16:31: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Humble Servant
Shipmate
# 18391
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I still don't know what 'versions of Brexit' means though.
It means that post-Brexit there are several options for the relationship between the EU and UK. Broadly there are three clusters of versions of Brexit:
- Where the UK remains within the free trade area, has access to some EU institutions (eg: research funding), but is not a member of the EU. Think of something like the relationship between the EU and Norway. This is the so-called "soft Brexit".
- Where all ties between the EU and the UK are severed, and the relationship is the same as between practically any non-European nation and the EU - initially trading under WTO rules, and then (probably) seeking to negotiate trade deals post-Brexit. This is the so-called "hard Brexit".
- Something in-between where a bespoke agreement is reached prior to Brexit, with trade deals that cover some goods and services but not full access to the free trade area and no obligations to allow free movement of people. Which is the almost impossible path Mrs May seems to want to walk.
What our government seems to be saying at the moment is that they will try for a deal they want (whether or not that's what the British people want), and if they don't get it then we will default to version 2.
Though the Leave campaign were woefully imprecise in what they wanted prior to the referendum, it was closer to a version 1 than version 3 by a long shot. So, assuming those who voted Leave did so because they liked the vague promises of the Leave campaign (and, what else do we have to go on?) then it seems to me that the mandate the government has is to try for something with less ties to the EU than a version 1, but probably default to a version 1 if that's not possible - or even Brexit to a version 1 and then negotiate our way further from the EU if needed.
But of course the EU has its own negotiating position. It starts with your version 2 is what will be on offer until we have completed the withdrawal and agreed what compensation we're going to pay for withdrawing from our on-going commitments to various projects. Once that's all out of the way, we're no longer in the EU and we can start the process of negotiating your version 3. In the intervening 10 or more years, we're stuck at version 2 - and may never get beyond it once all the bridges have been burned.
Posts: 241 | Registered: Apr 2015
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anteater
Ship's pest-controller
# 11435
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Posted
Vent warning.
Did anyone watch the Kuensberg Brexit documentary.
I believe there is shock-horror that the BBC may be anti-brexit, as if people didn't know. BBC is a reflection of the intellectual establishment in Britain and always will be, and like it or not, that establishment is anti-brexit, just like it is anti-Trump, which the BBC also is.
I don't mind that, but it was so patronizingly dumbed-down that I gave up after 15 minutes. We had old-time films about divorce court proceeding (in case you don't know what it is) and back and white train crash (presumably from a comedy) in case you didn't know what that was. Some excerpts from Top Gear, I think, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Tellytubbies got in the act.
Then we had Laura hawking a giant £50bn check (what the EU will charge us - allegedly), so get "ordinary people's" reactions.
And of course, all the usual suspects.
What absolute drivel.
The pity is that it's a serious subject deserving grown-up treatment, and for all I know there were some nuggets of interest in their somewhere. And the way had been shown with a thoughtful piece on the future of the EU about 2 weeks ago on BBC. You may have disagreed with many aspects of it but your intelligence was not systematically insulted.
A lost opportunity.
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Schnuffle schnuffle.
Posts: 2538 | From: UK | Registered: May 2006
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anteater
Ship's pest-controller
# 11435
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Posted
Sensible bloke, Guy. It may require a payment, but so long as it is not outrageous, I'd stump up.
All the attention seems to be on what problems May faces, but I would not want to be on the other side either. Nobody will thank the EU negotiators for a screw-up, but equally, the rise of populism makes it dangerous because you'll get the "Just stand up to them and they capitulate" attitude gaining ground.
So any gesture of friendship to the UK and the 48%-ers in particular, which doesn't threatent any principle is welcome. But what I don't know is whether is could be argued that the same options would have to be given to Swiss, Norwegian et al citizens, many of whom would prefer to be in the EU. Turkey anyone?
The only chance of a reverse is if:
1. Over the course of the noegiations, brexit gets to looks less attractive.
2. Labour dumps Corbyn and moves to a pro EU stance, really and in earnest. Like no whipping to pass the Article 50 bill.
3. The negotiations get extended beyond the date of the next election (not impossible).
4. The result of that is a defeat for the Tory's and some pro-EU coalition.
In that scenarios, I do not doubt that the EU would bend over backwards to welcome us all in, but I don't believe they are bastards, unline tabloids and (weirdly) quite a few remainers.
Chance? Not much. But what was the probability of Brexit in 2014. The remainers need a Farage, I think. But who could it be?
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Schnuffle schnuffle.
Posts: 2538 | From: UK | Registered: May 2006
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
<snip>
Chance? Not much. But what was the probability of Brexit in 2014. The remainers need a Farage, I think. But who could it be?
Anthony Charles Lynton Blair
![[Two face]](graemlins/scot_twoface.gif)
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Humble Servant:
quote:
It starts with your version 2 is what will be on offer until we have completed the withdrawal and agreed what compensation we're going to pay for withdrawing from our on-going commitments to various projects.
That certainly matches the expectation of 'how it goes down' throughout Europe. I'm not sure the EU necessarily wants to do that on the basis of knowing just how difficult that will be for Britain in so many respects; both culturally, socially and economically. However, I do wonder if they will actually have a choice of anything else in response to the leave result. It would appear very odd internationally to permit a country that has just voted to leave the EU to suddenly retain a number of benefits that other countries on the international stage are currently negotiated about in regards to trade deals. It leaves the EU in quite a bind in that respect.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
<snip>
Chance? Not much. But what was the probability of Brexit in 2014. The remainers need a Farage, I think. But who could it be?
Anthony Charles Lynton Blair
That was my first thought. He's desperately unpopular, right now, and this time the Murdoch press will go for the jugular, but I wouldn't put it past him to have another go. It was quite telling how when he made his recent speech on the subject the right-wing press devoted acres of commentary as to how he wasn't relevant any more. "TONY BLAIR, WHO CARES WHAT HE THINKS! pp 1,2,3,4,5, 9,10,11, 12". It's a bit like the headlines of Le Moniteur during the hundred days. "The Brigand Flees Elba", "The Usurper enters Grenoble", "Bonaparte enters Lyon", "The Emperor enters Paris". Thus far we are no further than The Brigand fleeing Elba. But if everything goes tits up, who knows how far he will get. Meanwhile the Bourbons who have forgotten nothing and learned nothing are haunted by the notes of "Things Can Only Get Better". Aux Armes Citoyens! Tainted by failure and scandal he's still so much better than anything we've had since and the bastards know it, and it burns.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Guy Verhofstadt has come out and said that Britons should keep EU rights after leaving
I'm certainly up for that.
Absolutely. I would be up for that too.
The brexiteers are saying 'go and live there then' as if the EU is a country ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Guy Verhofstadt has come out and said that Britons should keep EU rights after leaving
I'm certainly up for that.
Absolutely. I would be up for that too.
The brexiteers are saying 'go and live there then' as if the EU is a country
It's a nice idea, but I can't see how it would work.
Some firms would undoubtedly start using that status as a precondition for employment - which raises some legal questions, particularly for those who are already in employment somewhere. I can foresee the Brexiteer equivalent of Gina Miller going to court on that one claiming it's discrimination for a role which primarily involves working in the UK.
Mind you, it would be ironic I suppose if some Brexiteers ended up having to opt back in to keep their jobs having voted out.
It strikes me overall as a nice idea which doesn't stand much prospect of happening. Sadly.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
The remainers need a Farage, I think. But who could it be?
No, we don't. We need someone with conviction and passion about remaining in the EU. But, also someone of integrity and honesty who won't try to con others with deliberate fabrications, distortions or threats of violence. Someone very different from Farage.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
Some firms would undoubtedly start using that status as a precondition for employment - which raises some legal questions, particularly for those who are already in employment somewhere.
If a job requires spending significant time within the EU, then it's not unreasonable that a precondition for employment is the right to work in the EU. At present that includes all UK citizens, post Brexit there will need to be alternative arrangements. One option would certainly be an "EU citizenship" for UK citizens, granting all the rights of other EU citizens in relation to living and working in the EU. A visa could be issued to cover those rights, but would a visa to live and work in Germany also allow someone to do their job in France and Greece if that's where they're needed?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
<snip>
Chance? Not much. But what was the probability of Brexit in 2014. The remainers need a Farage, I think. But who could it be?
Anthony Charles Lynton Blair
Yes. This makes a lot of sense. Sure, lots of people hate him. But then lots of people hate Farage, too.
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
This could be the new way ahead for western democracies, elect the person we hate the most. Seems to have worked for Uncle Sam.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If a job requires spending significant time within the EU, then it's not unreasonable that a precondition for employment is the right to work in the EU.
If a job requires working in the EU, it's not unreasonable that a precondition for employment is the right to work in the EU.
But your phrasing? I can point at lots of jobs that require spending significant time within the US, and are held by people that do not have the right to work in the US. The people that hold these jobs live on aeroplanes.
"Work in the US" or "work in the EU" has a specific meaning, which is a bit different from "spend a lot of time in the EU / US as part of your employment."
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Yes, if you're working for a UK company, being paid in the UK then that is your place of work. In that situation you can spend some time in other countries without necessarily requiring any special permissions - normally that would include not being paid directly by anyone in that country. Normally, that would be covered by either a basic tourist visa - which may be vastly simplified by a visa waiver scheme. A very common restriction on such visas is a limit of 90 days per year. How does that work with say a long distance haulier, where their drivers may be in the EU 2-3 days a week or more? Do they spend effort counting the days their drivers spend in the EU to keep the total below 90 days, maybe resulting in their drivers having to sit idle while they bring in someone else because they have used their 90 days? What about those drivers knowing they can't then take their family for a two week holiday in Spain without exceeding their 90 day total? Or a university student or early career researcher needing to spend months at a time at CERN? Or a self-employed consultant with clients across the continent?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Or a university student or early career researcher needing to spend months at a time at CERN? Or a self-employed consultant with clients across the continent?
A student or postdoc employed by a UK university but doing work at a US lab would probably apply for (and get) a B1 visa, which allows longer-term business travel (but does not entitle the holder to "work" in the US.)
A self-employed person would probably be "working" in all the countries he visited, so would require whatever permissions he needed to "work".
For lorry drivers, my understanding of US law is that if you're a Canadian or Mexican (say) driver transporting goods between a point in Canada or Mexico and one in the US, you don't need a work permit. If you wanted to transport goods between two points in the US, you would need to be authorized to work in the US.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
So, two of my three examples would need visas for the US. And, the third may if they aren't doing a simple A to B route. Whether the post Brexit UK-EU relationship will have the same rules remains to be seen. But, if it's similar then there will be examples of UK employment where having the relevant permissions to do what their job requires will be essential - either visas or EU citizenship (a colleague at work has already taken advantage of her Irish mother to get an Irish passport to join her existing UK one to ensure her career prospects are not adversely affected by Brexit).
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Eirenist
Shipmate
# 13343
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Posted
If we gave our Article 50 notice on April 1st, we could say afterwards that Brexit was only a joke . . .
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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'
Posts: 486 | From: Darkest Metroland | Registered: Jan 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Like all practical jokes, not at all funny.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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anteater
Ship's pest-controller
# 11435
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Posted
AlanC: quote:
then it seems to me that the mandate the government has is to try for something with less ties to the EU than a version 1, but probably default to a version 1 if that's not possible - or even Brexit to a version 1 and then negotiate our way further from the EU if needed.
A key factor is what our negotiating partners within the EU would want.
IMO, any default position has to be one which can certainly be brought about, and that is why clean brexit (as championed by Liam Halligan & Gerard Lyons) is often touted, since nobody disputes we can get to it - it's whether we want to that is the issue.
Richard North (he of Flexcit) argues strongly that the EU could not prevent UK from taking your option 1, although he concedes free movement and even a modest increase in contributions. That would, of course, enrage a lot of leavers, not just kippers. I would not agree that this is provably Teresa's mandate, but it certainly meets the terms of the referendum (unless you believe Norway is in the EU).
But I agree with HumbleServant that the time pressure would sink this. Plus I tend to agree with Lawsons view that:
quote:
In practice, we must accept that our free-trade offer will be rejected and that no remotely acceptable post-Brexit trade agreement between the UK and the EU is negotiable. This is not, for the most part, out of hostility to the UK.
It is largely because, throughout the EU today, the political establishment is threatened by the rise of anti-establishment political parties, many of them somewhat unsavoury, such as the Front National in France, which (it is believed) would gain strength from anything that could be remotely construed as giving a Brexit benefit to the UK. This is the overriding political context in which the Article 50 talks will take place.
So if I were Teresa, I'd accept your option 2 as the likely outcome and preferred default, although I (like she) would have liked it much more if none of this had happened, although clearly I am not as regretful as many on this ship.
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Schnuffle schnuffle.
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
So, two of my three examples would need visas for the US.
Yes. But visa != work permit. Work permits are harder to get than visas, and subject to more political nonsense (taking jobs away from citizens etc.) So in a post-Brexit future, the question of whether you need to be able to "work" in the EU, or just visit it for regular business trips could make quite a lot of difference.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
OK, that would assume that the EU follows the same system as the US. In the UK, "work permits" are visas (most probably a Tier 2 visa, Tier 5 covering some occupations such as religious worker, or an indefinite leave to remain, spousal visa etc). Though, I don't think anyone has decided what the situation will be post Brexit for the technicalities to be defined.
It still doesn't change the point though. Whatever you call it, there are legal hoops to jump through to conduct business in another country (though, in many cases there might be a waiver in effect) and if your job requires you to conduct business overseas then having the relevant permits would be an advantage, maybe even a pre-requisite. A visa (maybe waived), work permit, citizenship or whatever other status.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
Meanwhile a reminder of what poor, hungry, imprisoned refugees in the UK a threatened with today and which are more likely to get post-Brexit; a one-way ticket back to their abusers.
The EU is screwed. We might have holed it below the waterline to such an extent that sending someone back to another EU state is a war-crime.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
In more of that "Brexit has so far made no difference to the economy" news, the pound continues to fall after the House of Commons vote.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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anteater
Ship's pest-controller
# 11435
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Posted
According to Politico there's a rumour that the UK trade team is exploring a 10 year interim deal keeping the current zero tariffs and giving longer for the final deal.
Apparently this is allowed for under WTO rules.
Of course a rumour is just that. But it shows there may be options.
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Schnuffle schnuffle.
Posts: 2538 | From: UK | Registered: May 2006
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
If that is conditional on freedom of movement continuing for 10 years, I seriously doubt that it would be acceptable to the headbangers. Facing them down would be a test of May's mettle, one which she has so far shown no appetite for.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
It wouldn't surprise me if the UK government presented this as an entirely reasonable option, only to have those pesky Europeans refuse it, which could be a magnificent way to demonstrate how wise they are being in leaving the EU.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
If that is conditional on freedom of movement continuing for 10 years, I seriously doubt that it would be acceptable to the headbangers. Facing them down would be a test of May's mettle, one which she has so far shown no appetite for.
A Leave Victory was supposed to be a supernova to the Tory Party. But Hark, I see no noise of a catastrophic chasm opening.
When you got high profile Tories like Edwina turning Leave having previously supported Remain you know this isn't the same shambles as Maggie and her beloved Geoffrey presided over.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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Eirenist
Shipmate
# 13343
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Posted
A man jumped off the 40th floor of a tower block. As he passed the 20th floor, he was heard to say, 'Well, I'm all right so far.' We haven't left the EU yet.
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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'
Posts: 486 | From: Darkest Metroland | Registered: Jan 2008
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Not yet, maybe, but time is running out...March 29th is not far off, and that's when it'll all start to rush even faster downhill to Hell....
Where's that Deus ex machina when you need it?
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
The EU is screwed. We might have holed it below the waterline to such an extent that sending someone back to another EU state is a war-crime.
Other EU states have been torturing refugees, apparently for years, and you're blaming it on Brexit?
It kinda gives the lie to the idea that the EU is some bastion of progressive left-wing politics as well, now I come to think of it. Say what you like about how bad the British attitude towards refugees is, but we don't fucking waterboard them.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It kinda gives the lie to the idea that the EU is some bastion of progressive left-wing politics as well, now I come to think of it.
I don't think anyone would deny that some of the countries that joined post 1995 have a long way to go before they reach the same standards of human rights enjoyed in the rest of the EU, equally though in a lot of cases the EU has been a force for improvement in all sorts of ways.
quote:
Say what you like about how bad the British attitude towards refugees is, but we don't fucking waterboard them.
No, in the UK refugee care is outsourced, and complaints of abuse are generally poorly investigated. Besides, the claim that the UK is better than the poorest ex-Soviet country shouldn't be a huge point of provide.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
A man jumped off the 40th floor of a tower block. As he passed the 20th floor, he was heard to say, 'Well, I'm all right so far.' We haven't left the EU yet.
The real cost is going to be in years of slower GDP growth, or wondering 10 years from now why the UK is poorer than the RoI.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Eirenist
Shipmate
# 13343
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Posted
And now the Brexiteers are complaining that the BBC is insufficiently upbeat in its reports on Brexit.
Presumably March 29th is to be proclaimed a day of national rejoicing, with bricks flung through the windows of anyone failing to display the Union Jack or, perhaps more likely, the Cross of St George?
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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'
Posts: 486 | From: Darkest Metroland | Registered: Jan 2008
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
The real cost is going to be in years of slower GDP growth, or wondering 10 years from now why the UK is poorer than the RoI.
It would take a very dramatic fall indeed for the UK to end up poorer than the RoI. The UK started with many more resources and connections and is a much more diverse economy.
But I wouldn't say it is totally impossible or improbable. Maybe like many of Irish we'll be wandering the world looking for work.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Other EU states have been torturing refugees, apparently for years, and you're blaming it on Brexit?
Less-than-enthusiastic engagement with the EU together with a grotesque attitude by the British to avoid virtually any interaction with refugees has precipitated a situation whereby these things happen.
No, the UK can't take every refugee. But counter to the bollocks spoken by UKIP and the Tories, we're not taking our share. Not by population nor by our relative wealth in the EU nations.
Britons think "foreigners" as an idea applies to someone else. There was a recent video interview of British long-term pensioners living in Spain. People were asked how they voted, many said they'd voted Leave, pointing without irony to the problems of "too many foreigners in the UK".
People think that the UK is overrun by people seeking asylum. That's so beyond the truth as to be completely stupid. Yes, Greece and Eastern Europe are making a total horlicks of the whole thing - but that is largely because they're in terrible financial straights already and there are a bunch of arsewipes on the other side of Europe who think it isn't their problem.
quote:
It kinda gives the lie to the idea that the EU is some bastion of progressive left-wing politics as well, now I come to think of it. Say what you like about how bad the British attitude towards refugees is, but we don't fucking waterboard them.
No, we just allow others to. Because we Brits never like actually getting blood on our hands, we prefer to tut from a distance whilst secretly assisting those who are doing the nasty.
[ 21. March 2017, 11:18: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
So, we've kicked if all off then..... ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
So, we've kicked if all off then.....
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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