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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I can't decide whether May is being clever, and faking a hard Brexit, to keep the Ultras quiet, and then she will accept a kind of modified customs union, although not called that. Or on the other hand, she genuinely believes that she can cherry-pick from assorted goodies, such as 'frictionless' trade across EU borders, without paying anything back.
It's probably the latter, and no doubt, the Tories are geared up to blame the EU, Germany, France, Corbyn, and anybody else they can think of, when it goes pear-shaped. But the pear will be strong and stable.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
.. and the Brexit negotiations themselves continue to go about as well as expected:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/04/30/the-uk-government-is-completely-deluded-about-brexit/
I keep wondering about an uncomfortable possibility, that May and her cohort are rather dim, and not all that well briefed, and that they will make a dog's dinner of negotiations, partly because they don't really know what they are talking about. But come on, we are talking about the PM, who has risen to great heights in the political hierarchy - tell me it ain't true.
[ 01. May 2017, 12:51: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Or on the other hand, she genuinely believes that she can cherry-pick from assorted goodies, such as 'frictionless' trade across EU borders, without paying anything back.
I think she is a plodder who by grim determination has overcome others doubts a few times and because of this is wont to over-estimate her own competence.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Or on the other hand, she genuinely believes that she can cherry-pick from assorted goodies, such as 'frictionless' trade across EU borders, without paying anything back.
I think she is a plodder who by grim determination has overcome others doubts a few times and because of this is wont to over-estimate her own competence.
Yes, see my last post. It didn't enter my head that she may be rather dim, and not very clued up. I can see that Corbyn is a ditherer, but May seems both a ditherer and not very bright. So it goes.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Kwesi
Shipmate
# 10274
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Posted
Alan Cresswell quote:
Yes, Scotland has not done as bad from English oppression as other nations in the Union. Most of Ireland has already shaken off the yoke of English colonialism, hopefully Wales will also have the chance to follow Scotland out of the Union.
Regarding Scotland, this is ideological garbage. The fact is that Scotland was not colonised by England but benefitted greatly from British imperialism. Indeed, its sons, supported by not a few daughters, played a major role in the expansion of the Empire, and Glasgow flourished less "through the preaching of the word" (its motto) that its full participation in the triangular trade of slaves, tobacco and sugar. The most successful part of its economy, financial services, is an integral party of a system underpinned by the Bank of England, as was demonstrated by the recent rescue of its banks.
Apart from three or four years in the early 1980s Scotland has been subsidised by the English taxpayer. A major reason why Scotland voted "No' in the 2014 referendum was the failure of the Nationalists to offer a convincing case that independence would not lead to increased taxation and cuts in public spending to addressed the consequent fiscal deficit, and to qualify for entry to the euro. Significantly, no answer has been forthcoming since. Furthermore, the Scottish SNP government has shown no inclination to use its tax-raising powers to off-set the "Tory Cuts." In truth, any increase in public spending in Scotland rests on the return of a social democratic government to Westminster that will shovel money north of the border. Scottish Independence may be the Nationalist solution, but it is not the Patriotic one.
Posts: 1641 | From: South Ofankor | Registered: Sep 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I was amused by Juncker apparently waving around the EU deals with Croatia and with Canada, which between them, in printed version seem to weigh in around 6kg, (blimey, he has strong arms). I suppose he mentioned that the Canada deal is 1600 pages long. "If we had world enough and time, this coyness, lady, were no crime." (Marvell)
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kwesi:
Alan Cresswell quote:
Yes, Scotland has not done as bad from English oppression as other nations in the Union. Most of Ireland has already shaken off the yoke of English colonialism, hopefully Wales will also have the chance to follow Scotland out of the Union.
Regarding Scotland, this is ideological garbage.
Of course there was some very obvious hyperbole in my post. But, leaving that aside it's no more "ideological garbage" than everything said by the Brexiteers in regard to the EU. And, if that was good enough to swing England in line behind the ideology of the far right why shouldn't arguments based on a more solid foundation swing Scotland behind the Scottish government?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I don't think that the SNP portray Scotland as a colony of England, do they? Hence, parallels with Ireland don't really work, as Ireland can be seen as a former conquest.
The way I see it is that if there is a union, then both parties are free to leave. Seems straightforward to me.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I don't think that the SNP portray Scotland as a colony of England, do they? Hence, parallels with Ireland don't really work, as Ireland can be seen as a former conquest.
No, that's not part of the SNP view of Scotland - hence why I said I went overboard with the hyperbole. There are very good reasons for Scottish independence, shaking off the yoke of English oppression isn't one of them.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
The way I see it is that if there is a union, then both parties are free to leave.
Even we dedicated unionists freely acknowledge that democratic right. As should we with that other union the EU. But before Brexit threw a spanner in the works, the SNP used to say that it wouldn't call another referendum until support for independence consistently polled at around 60%. Yet they were waiting to pounce on any opportunity to make trouble towards their aim. Not one pollster has provided any evidence that support for independence has increased since 2014, and even less so that the people of Scotland want another vote. That's why I agree that this is not the time and that the SNP alone doesn't represent the views of Scotland.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There are very good reasons for Scottish independence,
Apart from the Braveheart and Bannockburn mentality, I don't think there are. The majority of Scotland's trade is internal to the UK, and the UK taxpayer supports Scotland to the hilt. Nicola is a vociferous opponent of austerity, but a massive dose of it would be necessary to rebalance the economy of independence.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
But before Brexit threw a spanner in the works, the SNP used to say that it wouldn't call another referendum until support for independence consistently polled at around 60%.
The SNP and Scottish government position (noting that the Scottish government position may change should pro-indy parties ever gain a majority in Parliament) was that another referendum would be held "after a generation" (which I think most of us took to be sometime after 2030) or if there was a substantial change in the constitutional status of the UK (specifically mentioning UK withdrawal from the EU in the SNP manifesto). At no stage has the level of support for independence in polling been considered a factor. Without a shadow of a doubt the "substantial constitutional change" has occured, and therefore the Scottish Government has the mandate to request another referendum since the SNP and Greens were elected on a platform that explicitely named Brexit as a basis for doing so. Now that Mrs May has that letter requesting a referendum, the longer she sits on it the more she will be seen as holding the Scottish government in contempt, and the stronger the case for independence will be.
quote:
That's why I agree that this is not the time and that the SNP alone doesn't represent the views of Scotland.
Of course the SNP alone doesn't represent Scotland. But, the Scottish Parliament and government do, and they have determined that the Brexit referendum result, coupled by an unwillingness to compromise on the part of Mrs May (eg: to consider remaining in the Single Market), means that this is the time to request another referendum. You think it's the wrong time, Mrs May thinks it's the wrong time, many people in Scotland don't want it. We know that. If Mrs May had any nous at all she would, of course, let the Scottish Government call a referendum and let the Scottish Conservatives exploit the unpopularity of holding a referendum to their advantage in June, and when the referendum is held. But, as her negotiating stance with the EU is demonstrating, common sense is something she lacks.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
I know that the last thing most contributors here would want is a successful Brexit. According to the leaks in the German press, at last week's dinner date between Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker, when she said "let's make a success of Brexit." He said, "It can't be a success." That seems to be the consensus here. But I'd be quite interested what others think of the 60 billion Euro "divorce bill." According to some sources there is no legal enforceable requirement for us to pay anything to leave. But the government may consider that, as part of a deal which includes trade, it might be a good idea to pay up, at least something, to "buy" good will.
But it seems that Monsieur Barnier and President Juncker think they can demand this amount up front without promising anything for the future. Well they have the advantage of being unelected and not having to go before any voters. Many British voters would be aghast to hear that the Prime Minister had coughed up 60 billion with nothing to show for it. But she could probably sell it as part of a package. That's why I agree with the British negotiating position, once held by the EU as well, that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. To pay 60 billion Euros up front would be insanity.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
I know that the last thing most contributors here would want is a successful Brexit.
This is bullshit. Not wanting to be in this position is not the same as hoping it goes poorly. It is simply that reality indicates it will.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
It seems fairly obvious to me that even if there is no legal requirement for the UK to continue to honour some of the money already agreed to the EU, there are very good moral and political reasons to do so. If the EU has to start scrabbling around to find additional funds to cover already committed expenditure for ongoing projects, some of which (such as pension packages) are long term, then that's going to create ill-will towards the UK within the rest of Europe. If the tables were reversed and (say) France was leaving would the UK electorate look favourably on the UK government agreeing anything with France if the UK was having to increase contributions to the EU to cover the money France wasn't paying?
It keeps getting called a "divorce bill". Of course, when a marriage breaks up we expect that both partners will continue to support their children until such a time as they are old enough to support themselves - that usually takes the form of whoever has primary custody of the children receiving money to ensure they can afford a suitable home, food, clothing etc. We (quite rightly) consider someone walking out of a marriage without providing for their children to be immoral, and the courts can force payments to be made. Why should Brexit be any different? Just because "the children" in the analogy are assorted projects (regional development, science & technology etc) and the jobs and pensions of EU staff.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
I know that the last thing most contributors here would want is a successful Brexit.
This is bullshit. Not wanting to be in this position is not the same as hoping it goes poorly. It is simply that reality indicates it will.
The most successful Brexit is, of course, no Brexit. But, there doesn't appear to be any way that will happen. So, yes, I want the next best from the negotiations. Which would be to keep all the good things about EU membership - single market, customs union, common standards, freedom of movement, cooperation on science and technology, structural funds, cooperation on fishing, environment, international relations. But, the UK government seems intent on ditching all of those as well. So, I guess we're going to have to see how well this small island can stand on it's own without the benefits of being part of the European club. Which doesn't look good to me.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
May saying she's going to be 'bloody difficult' won't help either. ![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif)
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Why should Brexit be any different? Just because "the children" in the analogy are assorted projects (regional development, science & technology etc) and the jobs and pensions of EU staff.
I wasn't suggesting that Britain shouldn't have to pay anything. But today when I read that it may be 100 billion Euros to support such things as Polish agriculture into the 20's, I wonder if someone is taking the piss because they don't really want a settlement. And my question was more about whether this should be part of a package which includes our future relationship with Europe rather than a figure we're forced to agree up front. I can't see the electorate buying the latter.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
May saying she's going to be 'bloody difficult' won't help either.
Why shouldn't she be difficult when she's dealing with someone like Juncker? What emerges from this is his need to make the UK suffer as much as possible to deter others. We already knew that, but what, for example, is wrong with the PM's suggestion that the mutual rights of citizens be agreed next month? Or his response "Brexit can't be a success." He will do everything to ensue it isn't a success. We need someone who will be difficult with him.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
'Ms May, the EU is a political, economic and legal entity - not a golf club'
Lol, I love Juncker.
[ 03. May 2017, 08:01: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
what, for example, is wrong with the PM's suggestion that the mutual rights of citizens be agreed next month?
Other than the fact that the rights of EU citizens in the UK should have been guaranteed in June last year? Or, that that has already been said to be one of the priorities of the negotiators on the EU side?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Why should Brexit be any different? Just because "the children" in the analogy are assorted projects (regional development, science & technology etc) and the jobs and pensions of EU staff.
I wasn't suggesting that Britain shouldn't have to pay anything. But today when I read that it may be 100 billion Euros to support such things as Polish agriculture into the 20's, I wonder if someone is taking the piss because they don't really want a settlement.
I'm sure that if everyone approaches negotiations in a serious and thoughtful manner, seeking to find the compromise that's the best possible outcome for all, then there will be an agreement that is mutually acceptable - and probably a lot less than €100b. But, since EU budgets are set for extended periods (7 years is quite typical) it doesn't surprise me that CAP budgets have already been set beyond 2020.
The "divorce bill" will need to contain two elements. One is the already committed expenditure in mid-term projects. The second part would be the open ended commitments (pensions for EU staff being the biggest of those), we could commit to making those payments as they are due (which would mean making payments to the EU for decades to come) or we make a one-off payment to pay off our commitments. If I was on the EU side, an agreement to pay smaller contributions over the next 3-5 years to cover the already committed project expenditure would seem reasonable. But, I wouldn't want to rely on successive UK governments over the next few decades to pay the pensions etc, and so a one-off buy-out of those would be very attractive.
quote:
And my question was more about whether this should be part of a package which includes our future relationship with Europe rather than a figure we're forced to agree up front. I can't see the electorate buying the latter.
I can't see it being anything other than a pre-requisite for any deal (other than a complete separation), though it wouldn't prevent negotiations on other aspects of a deal to maintain access to EU markets starting in parallel.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
A softish Brexit might be a success, since British firms would still be able to export to the EU without paper documents and border checks, the City would still be able to deal with euro-related contracts, and so on.
Whether this can be achieved seems doubtful, as Mrs May seems fairly chaotic. I suppose one can hope that her hard Brexit pose is stricly for the Ultras, and she intends to row back to a more soft Brexit. I have my doubts about that.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331
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Posted
I wouldn't place any reliance on Mayhem and Co. having long-term plans. She repeatedly said she was not going to have an election until 2020, and yet here we are.
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
I wouldn't place any reliance on Mayhem and Co. having long-term plans. She repeatedly said she was not going to have an election until 2020, and yet here we are.
Yes, and we've had 7 ramshackle years under the Tories, who have borrowed a huge amount, and not paid off the deficit.
But this will go under the radar, since it's packaging that counts. May will be packaged as strong and resolute, whereas she has been irresolute and wobbly. And possibly rather dim.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Oh, we can rely on Mrs May. Just look at the Tory government record over the last few years:
The economy - ballsed it up
Education - ballsed it up
Health - ballsed it up
Welfare - ballsed it up
National unity - ballsed it up
I think we can rely on Mrs May to balls it up when it comes to Brexit too.
We can also count on the well-paid friends of the Tories in the media to present the unmitigated disaster it will be as a resounding success.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Oh, we can rely on Mrs May. Just look at the Tory government record over the last few years:
The economy - ballsed it up
Education - ballsed it up
Health - ballsed it up
Welfare - ballsed it up
National unity - ballsed it up
Only by socialist standards. If you judged the Labour governments of the 40s and 50s by capitalist standards you would say they ballsed everything up as well.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331
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Posted
Actually, Marvin, some capitalists also think the Tories have ballsed up the economy this time around.
Or would you describe the governor of the Bank of England as a socialist?
I notice this bout of quantitative easing went almost unremarked in the mainstream media. Presumably it is only bad when socialists do it.
[ 03. May 2017, 10:30: Message edited by: Jane R ]
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Oh, we can rely on Mrs May. Just look at the Tory government record over the last few years:
The economy - ballsed it up
Education - ballsed it up
Health - ballsed it up
Welfare - ballsed it up
National unity - ballsed it up
Only by socialist standards. If you judged the Labour governments of the 40s and 50s by capitalist standards you would say they ballsed everything up as well.
OK, so where haven't they ballsed it up?
The economy has been stagnant by basically any indicator you wish to choose for the last 7 years. At a time when the US economy has been growing, and the Eurozone economies growing even faster. About the only major economy that's doing worse than the UK is Japan (and, they have some unique problems of their own, including having been hit by one of the biggest earthquakes in recorded history).
Education is an underfunded shambles, and the only thing the Tories have to offer is more Grammar Schools, as though that will solve anything for the majority of students not blessed with a rich mum & dad to pay for the private tutors to tell them the answers to the exam.
The NHS is an underfunded shambles, with ever increasing waiting lists and never-ending stories of overstretched A&E departments.
Welfare is an underfunded shambles, with more and more people in desperate need denied the resources they need for dignified living.
And, as for national unity, social inequalities have sky-rocketted. More and more people are dependent on food banks, more and more children stuck in sink estates with crap schools, little prospect of employment ... while the rich find life getting easier. And, that's even before you discuss a highly devisive and pointless EU referendum that was only ever intended to hold the Tory party together for an election - with the resultant reopening of the questions of Scottish independence, and the status of N Ireland.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Oh, we can rely on Mrs May. Just look at the Tory government record over the last few years:
The economy - ballsed it up
Education - ballsed it up
Health - ballsed it up
Welfare - ballsed it up
National unity - ballsed it up
Only by socialist standards. If you judged the Labour governments of the 40s and 50s by capitalist standards you would say they ballsed everything up as well.
No, you wouldn't.
Socialism is state intervention in a capitalist economy: by any fair (you may not feel this applies to you) measure, the UK left the 50s with a recovering economy, a healthier, better educated population, a welfare system that comprehensively had done away with the poor house, and a strong sense of national unity.
Whereas a glance at the current statistics shows that the economy has been moribund for a decade, educational standards are falling, the health of the nation is worse, the welfare system is punitive and arbitrary and the UK is unlikely to survive as a political entity beyond a 10-20 year time frame. All of which are directly attributable to Tory policies.
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Oh, we can rely on Mrs May. Just look at the Tory government record over the last few years:
The economy - ballsed it up
Education - ballsed it up
Health - ballsed it up
Welfare - ballsed it up
National unity - ballsed it up
Only by socialist standards. If you judged the Labour governments of the 40s and 50s by capitalist standards you would say they ballsed everything up as well.
I'm in a quandary now. I'm not sure whether Marvin knows less about socialism or capitalism.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Or his response "Brexit can't be a success." He will do everything to ensue it isn't a success.
This isn't the only one of your posts in which you confuse not wanting Brexit to be a success with thinking that Brexit won't be a success.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Interesting point about the 100 billion euro bill, that it doesn't seem to come from the EU, but originally from the Financial Times. The rest of the press then took that figure as somehow authoritative. Barnier said, 'I don't know what the figure will be'. A kind of mad echo chamber in the British press.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Or his response "Brexit can't be a success." He will do everything to ensue it isn't a success. We need someone who will be difficult with him.
"Brexit can't be a success" is a realistic statement, not a punitive one. May is campaigning for all of the benefits of EU membership without any of the responsibilities. Admittedly, it is typical Tory policy to try to get all they want with someone else footing the bill; but this time they cannot manipulate the rules.
ETA: Regarding the bill: the UK have agreed to fund projects, how would breaking those agreements be good for negotiations?
[ 03. May 2017, 16:35: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Yes, I think it's impossible for a 'third country' to have frictionless access to EU markets. It's just a contradiction in terms. And May has ruled out the single market and the customs union.
If you could cherry-pick market access without membership, then there is no point to membership. It's like leaving the gym, but asking if you can still use the weights four times a week.
On the bill, the UK will also get money back over a period, as debts are repaid, buildings sold, and so on. But the tabloids like 'EU hikes bill to punish the UK'.
[ 03. May 2017, 16:42: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Or his response "Brexit can't be a success." He will do everything to ensue it isn't a success.
This isn't the only one of your posts in which you confuse not wanting Brexit to be a success with thinking that Brexit won't be a success.
What would success look like? From the Referendum campaign I got the impression that we could have all the good bits of EU membership but none of the bad bits. Frankly this strikes me as being Walter Mittyism. You have to be either deluded or thicker than a whale omelette to think that this was ever on the agenda as far as the rEU were concerned.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
You have to be either deluded or thicker than a whale omelette to think that this was ever on the agenda as far as the rEU were concerned.
Yes but unfortunately nobody benefits if trade slows down due to tariffs and customs checks. That's the lose/lose situation. A win/win for both sides is where as much of current trade as possible can be preserved.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Yes but unfortunately nobody benefits if trade slows down due to tariffs and customs checks. That's the lose/lose situation. A win/win for both sides is where as much of current trade as possible can be preserved.
I'm not sure that's the case. Since the EU has tariffs and customs checks for various non-EU countries there's at least a prima facie argument that the EU sees at least some benefit from the practice. Given that one of the big selling points of the Brexit was independence from EU-mandated regulations it would seem only prudent for the EU to verify UK goods are in conformity with EU standards. In other words, customs checks.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Of course, that's the optimum. But, the only sure-fire win-win would be for the UK to not leave the EU. Anything else and there are losers - probably on both sides. So, the name of the game is to cut your losses.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
The obvious solution is to continue membership of EEA; but apparently, that is ruled out by the Ultras. It's got the dreaded word 'Europe' in the title.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Yes but unfortunately nobody benefits if trade slows down due to tariffs and customs checks. That's the lose/lose situation. A win/win for both sides is where as much of current trade as possible can be preserved.
I'm not sure that's the case. Since the EU has tariffs and customs checks for various non-EU countries there's at least a prima facie argument that the EU sees at least some benefit from the practice. Given that one of the big selling points of the Brexit was independence from EU-mandated regulations it would seem only prudent for the EU to verify UK goods are in conformity with EU standards. In other words, customs checks.
I just reread your post, and you have hit the nail, with 'one of the big selling points of Brexit was independence from EU-mandated regulations'.
This leads to the contradiction in the May position, which seems to be 'frictionless' trade. How can you have that, and yet avoid EU regs?
It can't be done. Hence, you incur non-tariff barriers, which are probably much worse than tariff barriers. Imagine a truck queuing up at every EU border, to have documents checked.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Brexit has never been lacking in contradiction. Why should frictionless trade without common regulations be any different?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
And, watching the news with Mrs May giving her speech in front of No 10, and I wonder what planet she is on? Does she seriously believe all that twaddle?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331
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Posted
I think she's trying to channel Mrs Thatcher on the eve of the Falklands War, without actually having a war. But as she seems to be making it up as she goes along, it's hard to say.
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
I think she's trying to channel Mrs Thatcher on the eve of the Falklands War, without actually having a war.
Flippant as this might sound, can we take a moment to be grateful for the last bit?
I'm hiding under my desk for the next 5 weeks.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
I think she's trying to channel Mrs Thatcher on the eve of the Falklands War, without actually having a war.
Flippant as this might sound, can we take a moment to be grateful for the last bit?
I don't think we have the means to make war or enforce peace independently nowadays. As you say, this is just as well.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Snags
Utterly socially unrealistic
# 15351
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
And, watching the news with Mrs May giving her speech in front of No 10, and I wonder what planet she is on? Does she seriously believe all that twaddle?
If you have the patience to read a long Twitter thread,
this long run of tweets provides some potentially plausible back story/analysis.
tl;dr
It argues (with evidence) that May's political persona is based on being perceived as a fighter. In order to be a fighter, you need a fight. Winning the fight/resolving the superficial issue isn't the point, and indeed is bad, because then you're not a "fighter" anymore. So you set out to pick fights that don't exist, that you know are bullshit, so you can come off tough and feisty. Even though you could have got the same or a better result much quicker/more easily/with less damage if you'd just done the sensible thing at the start.
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Vain witterings :-: Vain pretentions :-: The Dog's Blog(locks)
Posts: 1399 | From: just north of That London | Registered: Dec 2009
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
I think she's trying to channel Mrs Thatcher on the eve of the Falklands War, without actually having a war.
Flippant as this might sound, can we take a moment to be grateful for the last bit?
I don't think we have the means to make war or enforce peace independently nowadays. As you say, this is just as well.
Even though I'm only 36, elections - and this one in particular - are not good for my health. I'm recusing myself from all social media until 9th June, just in the vanishingly unlikely event that anyone wonders where I've gone!
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
And, watching the news with Mrs May giving her speech in front of No 10, and I wonder what planet she is on? Does she seriously believe all that twaddle?
Just look at the tabloids this morning for your answer - 'Hands off our election!' - and so on. They don't care if it's a genuine story or not, they can whip up anti-EU sentiment, and she can hoover up UKIP votes, and everything is rosy.
I don't know if it will sour negotiations, really, they last a long time. I also assume that Mme May will not be the ehief negotiator.
So it's win-win for the Tories, really. What else matters?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I don't think we have the means to make war or enforce peace independently nowadays. As you say, this is just as well.
Only so long as nobody decides to make war against us.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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