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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
mr cheesy
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I was reflecting this morning when a hard Brexit MP was talking on the radio about leaving the CM and the EU that in fact the whole thing is about a gamble.

The predominantly Tory EU-haters seem to have persuaded themselves that it is eminently possible for the UK to negotiate trade agreements directly with other markets; that the EU is going to stall badly in the next few years whereas other markets will grow quickly; and that the UK can reasonably be hoped to do well.

Picking apart all of those things is fairly easy, but this is about aspiration and hope not facts as they stand at the moment.

But it also strikes me that those pushing Brexit seem to have persuaded themselves that they can't possibly lose. So any negativity can be wafted away so long as everyone keeps the faith and pulls together.

[Ultra confused]

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arse

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fletcher christian

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There seems to be a notion that the Commonwealth will suddenly want to massively increase its trade with the UK taking up any slack from loss of business with the EU. Of course what is really meant in regards to 'Commonwealth' seems to be Canada and India (Australia should surely be in there but it doesn't seem to get mentioned, not sure why). I can't really see those two nations suddenly wanting massively increased trade with the UK unless there's some kind of deal on the table that involves massively reduced labour costs and cheap materials, neither of which I imagine the UK can actually afford or deliver on. It all seems like such a fairyland really.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

The predominantly Tory EU-haters seem to have persuaded themselves that it is eminently possible for the UK to negotiate trade agreements directly with other markets;

This will fail for the same reasons as the demise in British manufacturing, a self appointed managerial class who believe that expertise is not needed, and that they an get through life with a breezy attitude and the odd Latin quote (after all, those guys down in the lab/ministry will sort out all the details - not the sort of thing to concern a gentleman).

[ 14. August 2017, 18:16: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
The predominantly Tory EU-haters seem to have persuaded themselves that it is eminently possible for the UK to negotiate trade agreements directly with other markets

Why do you think (as you seem to imply) that this is not possible? It's presumably something that Britain was doing from her inception until the 1970s? (I appreciate that there might be issues, e.g. lack of home-grown trade negotiators, but I don't understand why one would think such a task is so entirely beyond us.)
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BroJames
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My recollection such as it is of the trade-related arguments at the time of joining the Common Market was that no-one argued that Britain would be worse off from that POV in the Common Market, on the contrary. It was, however, argued, as a reason for not joining, that to do so would be damaging to Commonwealth nations who depended on special trading relationships with Britain as a market for their lamb, butter, sugar etc.

I don't know how the picture looks nowadays.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
The predominantly Tory EU-haters seem to have persuaded themselves that it is eminently possible for the UK to negotiate trade agreements directly with other markets

Why do you think (as you seem to imply) that this is not possible? It's presumably something that Britain was doing from her inception until the 1970s? (I appreciate that there might be issues, e.g. lack of home-grown trade negotiators, but I don't understand why one would think such a task is so entirely beyond us.)
The EU and Canada have been trying to put a trade deal together for seven years. These things take time. Just how long do you think it will take for Britain to move from a WTO only situation, as we will be from April 2019, to having all the desirable trade deals in place?

This is just another thing the "Leavers" ignored in their one-dimensional campaign, but probably the most important. To be honest, the "Remain" campaign ignored it too, out of complacency.

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Eutychus
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So the proposal is a temporary customs union during which time the UK can also negotiate trade deals outside the customs union.

Bearing in mind Sioni's point, this sounds to me like the UK wanting to have its cake and eat it, indefinitely (ie as long as not all desired trade deals are concluded).

It also contradicts (already) what the ministers said on Sunday about being outside the customs union from March 2019.

I wonder what the EU-27 will make of this?

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
So the proposal is a temporary customs union during which time the UK can also negotiate trade deals outside the customs union.

Judging by other things being said it's an attempt to put together a grab bag of things - and isn't particularly well thought out.

I expect they'll get a rather dusty answer.

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Eutychus
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So the initial article wasn't cleared by the Brexit secretary?

Who said
quote:
the transition could vary between sectors and would be “driven by practicalities” rather than ideology or timing.

Talk about rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic. They're busy squabbling over who gets to decide to rearrange them. They just can't face reality.

This seriously dents any faint hope I might have had that this was all an elaborate case of not revealing their hand too soon.

I think the only hope now is that some senior civil servants who have actually thought about things sensibly manage to beat some sense into their political masters before it's too late.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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mr cheesy
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It is a shared delusion. I'm convinced they think the EU will be worse off if they don't agree to trade with the UK and that a trade agreement would be a win-win.

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arse

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Eutychus
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That's not delusional. What's delusional is believing it could happen in anywhere near the two-year deadline they have allowed themselves under Art 50 (the terms of which the UK originally signed up to), all the more so in that we are already the best part of six months into that.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
That's not delusional. What's delusional is believing it could happen in anywhere near the two-year deadline

As I said, I think that a Tory leadership contest is being fought with the EU negotiations as a proxy.

The other issue is that none of them are particularly competent - even when it comes down to the raw pursuit of power.

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Alan Cresswell

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It's not the first time that the UK has been used as a pawn in an incompetent power struggle within the Conservative Party. The sooner the electorate realise that most senior Conservatives are only interested in their standing within their party and only care about their constituents or the nation as a whole when those interests align with their latest power play the sooner the electorate will find people who are actually concerned about their constituents, and vote for them.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Apparently the UK government's position on the NI border is also due out this coming week.

Now out, apparently. The BBC report on it is here:
quote:
It says the government does not want to see any physical infrastructure at the Irish border, such as customs posts.

But Brexit critics have complained that the UK's proposals lack credible detail on how that aim could be achieved.

So the UK government wants to be out of the customs union, not have freedom of movement, and have a porous border with the EU where it suits them?

Talk about "lack credible detail".

If this is not both having one's cake and eating it and pie in the sky, what is?

[Ultra confused] [Help] [brick wall]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Alan Cresswell

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It's eating one's own cake before it's even half-baked.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Eutychus
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I've been trying to get my head around what sort of arrangement this could conceivably involve. Putting UK customs at Irish ports? Putting all goods arrivals from NI through customs again at Great British ports? What insulates NI from EU freedom-of-movement provisions applying in Eire?

The exceptionalism of the current Euro/£ border and Schengen border including Eire already makes my head hurt. I can't tease out all the implications except to have a vague sense that the potential for loopholes goes some way to explaining why Irish passports are so appealing for criminals, and (not that I'm a criminal!) wondering if I shouldn't join the long line of people applying for one (I qualify).

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Baptist Trainfan
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
It's eating one's own cake before it's even half-baked.

Yes, I agree. And, in all that is being said, there seems to be a ridiculous over-confidence in thinking that we can set the terms on which we leave when, in reality, we are totally at Europe's mercy and behest.

I also like Eutychus' post below yours: I've been wondering along the same lines.

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Doublethink.
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They are basically relying on a fear of losing the peace, as allowing a massive fudge - they don't actually care who comes into N.I. They are care who comes to England, which is the part of the union that delivered the leave vote (without giving a toss about N.I. or Gibraltar).

[ 16. August 2017, 07:38: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Eutychus
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Well if anything comes of this I can see smarter business minds than mine coming up with all sorts of import-export shenanigans to be set up in Ireland along the lines of the order fulfilment businesses that thrived briefly in the Channel Islands.

And am I right in thinking that NI massively voted Remain? If so, I would think this fudge will add grist to the mill of nationalists even across sectarian divides (for moderates).

[ETA Gibraltar is a legal case apart - not part of the UK. The Channel Islands are a different legal case apart again as they have never been part of the UK - or the EU]

[ETA more: also, what happens to VAT in the UK post March 2019?]

[ 16. August 2017, 07:56: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Euty:
quote:

So the UK government wants to be out of the customs union, not have freedom of movement, and have a porous border with the EU where it suits them?

The approach is not as stupid as it sounds. They have no credible plan, that much is clear, but the plot is to sit around and repeat the same thing over and over; no border posts. Eventually the EU will enforce something through the talks that the UK will have to accept - especially seeing that they have no alternatives themselves - then they can turn around and say, 'Oh look at the mess Europe made of this.' The ability to blame someone else other than themselves for the mess that will appear in NI will be quite important I suspect.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
The approach is not as stupid as it sounds (...) Eventually the EU will enforce something through the talks that the UK will have to accept

It's not stupid in terms of trying to place the blame, but I can't for the life of me imagine a workable solution in practical terms other than either a hard land border or a "hard" sea border. Is there one?

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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fletcher christian

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I think the sea border is the only 'workable' solution as far as I can see. It could have passed the mustard if given much more time and work for the various parties in NI to get on board and to frame it in such a way that it can't be seen solely as a 'nationalist' victory that feeds into notions of a united Ireland. But none of it is good. The whole shambles demonstrates that when Brexit was considered for most (if not all) Brexit politicians, NI didn't even feature.

The problems relating to a hard land border are legion. In many respects that could be worse. I remember the days of a hard border and it was always a political touch paper which sporadically ignited. The whole thing is forcing the RofI to think about a united Ireland, which it really doesn't want to do currently. Having watched how the Brexit referendum was done the RofI doesn't have any great hope that a future referendum in NI about a united Ireland would be handled any better, and that's a significant worry. Would they, for instance, allow such a significant decision to pass on a tiny margin? What would they do if NI votes for a united Ireland but the RofI says no? Now that would be an irony Paisley would have liked; 'Ireland says No!', but it's a very real possibility.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I think the sea border is the only 'workable' solution as far as I can see. (...) The problems relating to a hard land border are legion. In many respects that could be worse.

Agreed.
quote:
Now that would be an irony Paisley would have liked; 'Ireland says No!'
[Big Grin] I can just hear him saying that (from beyond the grave). What a mess.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
The approach is not as stupid as it sounds (...) Eventually the EU will enforce something through the talks that the UK will have to accept

It's not stupid in terms of trying to place the blame, but I can't for the life of me imagine a workable solution in practical terms other than either a hard land border or a "hard" sea border. Is there one?
The only possible option is to shift the emphasis on customs control from port of entry to point of use. So, if a company needs to import widgets then they place an order with the supplier, pay relevant import duty (gaining a certificate) and contract an import company to ship it who then just confirms there's a certificate in place. Customs inspection then involves checking books and physical inspections of places of business to confirm that all imported items have had the relevent import duties paid, conform to regulations etc. That then applies to all trade, goods imported from Ireland, or passing through Irish ports to NI, or anything else (ie: it also removes the queue of lorries at Dover/Calais). It can also apply to immigrants, no border checks of visas needed, but checks that employers have confirmed the status of their employees and whether they have the relevant visas.

There's an element of that already to crack down on illegal imports and immigration. Whether it's practical or not is another question. It would need an almost total shift to everything being computerised, and it would need the cooperation of couriers and import/export businesses who carry the majority of goods across borders (and, if it means they don't have any of their stuff held up at ports of entry they may well welcome it if the IT system works smoothly).

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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mr cheesy
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The UK gov solution appears to be a system by which there is an equivalence in certain sectors between the EU and the UK and exemptions for small traders to avoid checks between NI and the Republic.

There is an obvious problem here: this means that the UK has to continue meeting the EU regulations in this area, and therefore destroys the notion that somehow the UK Parliament is taking back powers.

"Oh, we're taking back powers and... we're deciding to follow the EU regulations anyway. Not because we have to, but because we want to, don't you know.."

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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Another strange aspect of this is that a hard Brexit would increase red tape. This is quite ironic, since the headbangers go on about EU red tape, but then harmonizing regulations decreases it. If there are borders checks for every truckload of your widgets, you are in big trouble.

Hence, the Alice in Wonderland language being used now, that we will leave the customs union, but we want a 'mirror' of it, so as to facilitate trade. So why not stay in it? Because it's tainted with nasty European viruses or something. We'll have our own Britannic customs union, which just happens to look very like the EU one.

In other words, we are involved in an internal Tory struggle.

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Another strange aspect of this is that a hard Brexit would increase red tape.

No, no, no! The UK will unilaterally get rid of all red tape by adopting free trade status and gain £135bn annually!

It's the Brexit bus all over again.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Alan Cresswell

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Henceforth, all the various bits of necessary paperwork and regulatory hurdles will be called blue tape. Hey Presto, elimination of red tape.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
gain £135bn annually!

It's the Brexit bus all over again.

and the same debunking works: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf
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quetzalcoatl
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Interesting article here, arguing that the UK cannot escape the influence of the ECJ, since if we are harmonized with EU regs, those regs will be assessed by the ECJ. What happens if there is disagreement? Presumably, the hard Brexit people want this judged by a different body, but that will be in fact, judging the judgments of the ECJ, without being able to affect them.

Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/19/ecj-farewell-brexit-european-union-surrendering-influence

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Interesting article here, arguing that the UK cannot escape the influence of the ECJ, since if we are harmonized with EU regs, those regs will be assessed by the ECJ. What happens if there is disagreement? Presumably, the hard Brexit people want this judged by a different body, but that will be in fact, judging the judgments of the ECJ, without being able to affect them.

I think the ECJ is a bit of a red herring because trade agreements between the EU and external countries is not adjudicated by the ECJ.

But that shows that there is an oxymoron here; if the UK wants to be inside a trading zone with the RoI, it is hard to see how that can be done without being in the CM with the rest of the EU.

Otherwise (for example) Chinese companies could have products which didn't meet EU standards in the UK, which are then transported into the RoI and then to the rest of Europe.

In which case it would be hard to see how the ECJ wouldn't have a role as to what exactly the UK was importing and allowing to enter the EU.

It seems to me that NI is actually the stumbling block for this whole project; if there is completely free trade between NI and the RoI then it is hard to see how this can't also include the rUK without somehow changing status of NI. But the consequence of that is that the whole UK would need to be in the CM under EU rules and the ECJ. Which the politicians clearly think is not possible.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

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arse

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mr cheesy
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Another thought that someone recently mentioned to me.

I wonder if the hard Brexiteers are attempting to deliberately cause a recession to cause a rejig of the economy which they hope will make it more competitive in the longer term.

The reasoning:

1. Currently some sectors in the UK are heavily dependent on cheap labour, which has been coming from Europe without restriction.

2. The presence of that labour has had the effect of stifling innovation. For example perhaps the presence of EU fruit-pickers has prevented innovation in robots to pick fruit.

3. Therefore causing a shock causes those who have a lot invested in those industries to either reform/innovate or die. Of course the other impact of the shock (as per Naomi Klein) is that it gives space for governmental clampdown.

4. If this is all true, it perhaps explains why the first priority is the restriction of low paid migration and why there seems to be little concern about the economic impacts: that's part of the point

--

Which seems so screwy it might even be true. I'm not as convinced as some that AI/Robots are on the verge of massive changes to our economy - however I'm not so certain that there aren't massive parts of our lives which could change given enough investment.

And it isn't even just the lowest paid jobs which could be affected. If AI gets to the point where it could accurately drive vehicles, that could destroy many driving jobs. But if it also could show accuracy-beyond-humans then other higher status jobs could be under threat. Who would trust an accountant if a computer programme could instantly check a complicated set of business accounts? Why bother having a pharmacist if a machine could check correct dosages, for harmful reactions etc? Why bother with conveyancers if the machines could more accurately send and receive paperwork and check contracts?

I don't like the idea that a shock has been deliberately engineered. But I wouldn't put it past them. That's some scary shit.

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arse

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Boogie

Boogie on down!
# 13538

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I doubt if the brexiteers have such a detailed plan. All is political expediency and on the hoof 'plans'.

Farming fruit and veg is rapidly becoming a warehouse enterprise -like this.

[ 21. August 2017, 09:37: Message edited by: Boogie ]

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Garden. Room. Walk

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Another thought that someone recently mentioned to me.

I wonder if the hard Brexiteers are attempting to deliberately cause a recession to cause a rejig of the economy which they hope will make it more competitive in the longer term.

I think they are possibly trying to generate a shock, but not entirely for the reasons you state, or rather they don't think of it in terms of a shock.

I think they fully believe that business can only remain competitive via a steady stream of cheap labour. They also realise that if/when the UK cuts immigration one way or another this lowers the stream of cheap labour. They believe that in this case the only way of compensating is to cut costs for business generally - including red tape, and generally driving wages down further by cutting state support for the poorest.

Look at the rhetoric that they produce for internal consumption and it's fairly clear that this is what a significant segment (the Rees-Moggs, Redwoods, Minfords etc) hope to engineer.

They don't think in terms of AI, they aren't technocrats in that sense.

[ 21. August 2017, 10:04: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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Yeah, I agree it does feel a bit too much like organised thinking, and there isn't much evidence of any of that happening amongst the hard Brexiteers.

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arse

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Yeah, I agree it does feel a bit too much like organised thinking, and there isn't much evidence of any of that happening amongst the hard Brexiteers.

I think they basically think in terms of old style 'discipling the labour force' - that makes sense of their rhetoric around 'regulations that are good enough for India' or 'bonfire of the regulations' and so on. See the pronouncements from https://redtapeinitiative.org.uk/ and read the detail of Minfords paper (basically manufacturing goes to the wall but in 'business terms' its better for GDP - which can translate to a heck of a lot more inequality).
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

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To the people on top of the heap, inequality does not seem like a bad thing.
Posts: 3934 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
The EU and Canada have been trying to put a trade deal together for seven years. These things take time.

The EU takes longer because 20+ different countries have to agree to the terms. With only two countries negotiating it should be much quicker.

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Hail Gallaxhar

Posts: 29891 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Eirenist
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# 13343

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Yes, you're right, Marvin the M. It won't take more than 30 seconds to wave a white flag to President Trump's beautiful great America-first deal.

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
Yes, you're right, Marvin the M. It won't take more than 30 seconds to wave a white flag to President Trump's beautiful great America-first deal.

Trump's a narcissistic moron. Butter him up and treat him like he's God Almighty and he'll sign anything you put in front of him just to keep it coming. Even more so given how many of his allies in America are deserting him.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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dyfrig
Blue Scarfed Menace
# 15

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I'm not sure that's right. Whatever a President agrees in a treaty, it etill needs a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
Posts: 6916 | From: pob dydd Iau, am hanner dydd | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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I've only skimmed recent govt publications, but they seem to be saying that goods that are currently free from border checks and the like, should carry on being so.

Eh? Is this for real? Maybe I am reading it wrongly, but the whole point of leaving the EU is to become a 'third country', whose goods do not enter the single market freely.

That is what third country means. This is what escaping from EU regulations means.

I don't know if the govt are trying to blame the EU if they say no. I am waiting for the right wing press to start with this.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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There doesn't seem much point in doing more than skimming government publications on Brexit, since they lack any detail which would warrant study.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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HMG's position still seems to be "we will eat cake and have cake, and if we can't it's all the fault of Johnny Foreigner".

Of two Leave voters known to me, one is aghast at the incompetence and chaos and now regrets voting as he did, another is convinced that the govt is still under Remain control and is deliberately ballsing up the negotiations in order to put people off Brexit and prepare the ground for a second referendum.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:

Of two Leave voters known to me, one is aghast at the incompetence and chaos and now regrets voting as he did, another is convinced that the govt is still under Remain control and is deliberately ballsing up the negotiations in order to put people off Brexit and prepare the ground for a second referendum.

I have also seen talk that it is all a conspiracy; that leaving the EU is far too complicated to be done in a short period and that the government is dragging feet in a pantomime way to eventually announce that it is all too difficult so let's not bother.

The problem is that the Tory headbangers would never get re-elected if this was true. Nobody would trust them again if it turned out to be a complex ruse.

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arse

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Jane R
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# 331

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Oh, I don't think it's a ruse: I think the Brexiteers really are that incompetent... and totally out of touch with reality.
Posts: 3934 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:

Of two Leave voters known to me, one is aghast at the incompetence and chaos and now regrets voting as he did, another is convinced that the govt is still under Remain control and is deliberately ballsing up the negotiations in order to put people off Brexit and prepare the ground for a second referendum.

I have also seen talk that it is all a conspiracy; that leaving the EU is far too complicated to be done in a short period and that the government is dragging feet in a pantomime way to eventually announce that it is all too difficult so let's not bother.

The problem is that the Tory headbangers would never get re-elected if this was true. Nobody would trust them again if it turned out to be a complex ruse.

The leave campaign was successful: why shouldn't the Tories win elections? It's a matter of appealing to the electorate's lowest principles.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Eirenist
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# 13343

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The European Court of Justice, the UK Government says, will no longer 'directly' influence UK law after Brexit. By implication, it may have an indirect influence, since there is no way UK judges can be prevented from regarding a decision of the ECJ as an advisory authority when interpreting a point of European law where that is relevant. But is anyone apart from a few fanatical headbangers remotely worried by this?

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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The ECJ has become a totem for Mrs May, since she has declared that we will leave its influence.

But now there is the inevitable dilution, which I suppose will be camouflaged to avoid upsetting the headbangers.

It's a question of logic really. If we are to 'mirror' EU regulations, and those are legally overseen by the ECJ, then our regs also are. For example, if the EU declare that henceforth sprockets must have 15 teeth, not 16, is the UK really going to insist on 16?

But politicians have to live in their own pretend world, and hope nobody notices, which of course, everybody does.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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According to some cabinet minister (I can't remember who it was now) on R4 this morning the new Brexit arrangement between the UK is going to be a perfectly simple set of 3 arbitrators, 1 each from the EU and the UK and 1 independent. Not judges, arbitrators.

So the UK can leave the ECJ and the EU still gets its interests heard in a normal adjudication system.

Of course there are several obvious problems with this idea. Why would the EU agree to a new arbitration panel when it has a perfectly well functioning court? What is the point of a separate arbitration panel if it is going to have to follow the rulings of the ECJ? Why would the EU pay for a separate body? Why would they agree to a trade arbitration body where the EU and UK look like equal parties rather than the ECJ where the UK is just one party of many countries?

Once again, this seems to boil down to the Tory government ministers asserting that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU, to the extent that they (the Tory ministers) think that they (the EU) will agree to a body that they (the EU) see no need for.

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arse

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