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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Since the ECJ already has a body with that kind of responsibility there's no reason why a new body needs to be set up.

The ECJ is a court of the EU.

Would you agree that a treaty between the UK and USA should have the US Supreme Court as ultimate arbiter? No, you wouldn't, because you might reasonably suspect that SCOTUS might be just a touch partisan.

Would you agree that a new court, consisting of the 9-member SCOTUS plus one UK judge, should govern such a treaty? No, you wouldn't agree to that either.

So why would the UK agree to a UK/EU treaty being arbitrated by a body consisting of 27 EU judges and one UK judge?

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
The ECJ is a court of the EU.

Would you agree that a treaty between the UK and USA should have the US Supreme Court as ultimate arbiter? No, you wouldn't, because you might reasonably suspect that SCOTUS might be just a touch partisan.

Would you agree that a new court, consisting of the 9-member SCOTUS plus one UK judge, should govern such a treaty? No, you wouldn't agree to that either.

So why would the UK agree to a UK/EU treaty being arbitrated by a body consisting of 27 EU judges and one UK judge?

I think the EU basically is saying that this is the deal, take it or leave it: if you want to sell freely into the market you need to be subject to the ECJ as if you were an EU state.

I think it is true that other third countries have trade disagreements sorted out in other fora, but they don't have completely free access to the EU.

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arse

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mr cheesy
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For example the EU's long negotiated CETA agreement has provision for mediation between the EU and Canada (ie not via the ECJ).

And whilst (AFAIU) the agreement means that trade is much easier between Canada and the EU than it was before, it is still a long way from the extremely simple trading system one has within the market as an EU state.

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arse

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
So why would the UK agree to a UK/EU treaty being arbitrated by a body consisting of 27 EU judges and one UK judge?

I think you're partly right. I did some reading up on EFTA. EFTA has its own court system to rule on implementation of EU law in EFTA nations. According to wikipedia the EFTA court was set up specifically because there were legal difficulties in giving the ECJ direct jurisdiction over non-EU nations. So you're right that a similar relationship has been considered in the past and found infeasible, though not I think for exactly the reason you're proposing.
The EFTA and ECJ have a slightly asymmetrical relationship in that the EFTA court is obliged to take ECJ rulings into account whereas the ECJ is not obliged to take EFTA court rulings into account but has generally done so.

I don't think the case of the USA is exactly equivalent. The EU is a group of member nations bound by treaties rather than a single nation. It's not equivalent to the US.

The point is that the EU would like to guarantee EU citizens rights in the UK. The present UK immigration system would make Kafka scream, and is prone to implementing further restrictions every time the government wants to make things more difficult for non-nationals. Therefore the EU does not want to rely on the goodwill of the UK system.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Therefore the EU does not want to rely on the goodwill of the UK system.

Which is a reasonable thing to want to negotiate, certainly. Mutatis mutandis, it would not be sensible for the UK to rely on the goodwill of the EU system as regards its own citizens in Europe, which brings us back full circle.

I don't think the fact that the EU is a group of countries rather than a federal superstate makes much difference - we still come down to the issue of having some aspect of an agreement between two entities being policed by a wholly-owned subsidiary of one of the entities.

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Therefore the EU does not want to rely on the goodwill of the UK system.

Which is a reasonable thing to want to negotiate, certainly. Mutatis mutandis, it would not be sensible for the UK to rely on the goodwill of the EU system as regards its own citizens in Europe, which brings us back full circle.
If I understand wikipedia correctly, the ECJ is responsible under the relevant treaties with the three EFTA countries for ensuring that EFTA nationals in the EU are treated in accordance with the EU law.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
If I understand wikipedia correctly, the ECJ is responsible under the relevant treaties with the three EFTA countries for ensuring that EFTA nationals in the EU are treated in accordance with the EU law.

And who is responsible for ensuring that EU nationals are treated in accordance with the EFTA treaties when in the EFTA countries?

'Cause in general, one would expect the ECJ to ensure that EU law was correctly applied in the EU (including to EFTA nationals who happen to be in the EU) - that's its job. But given that M. Barnier is proposing that the ECJ take on a role with regard to EU citizens outside the EU, one would expect him to offer some quo pro his quid.

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la vie en rouge
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Far from it being a leverage point in the negotiations, speaking in my capacity as a UK citizen residing in the EU, I think for most of us, our working assumption is that we are going to be screwed. Note that we are expecting to be shafted at least as much by the British government as by the countries in which we reside. I for one have exactly zero confidence that Mrs May’s shambolic outfit is going to protect my interests.

That is why there is currently a massive scramble among British expats to obtain other nationalities wherever possible. I am also considering opening a marriage bureau (“British expat urgently seeks love with EU passport holder”) [Biased]

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Sioni Sais
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Mrs Sioni and Sioni V were both born in Malta and under Maltese law as it now stands we think they might be good for Maltese citizenship, which wasn't the case when the Mad Dom was in charge. We all have connections with Ireland and Scotland for that matter, through grandparents.

We have hope.

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(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Eirenist
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Thanks, shipmates, for helpful suggestions on obtaining EU flag (and window protection). Now, can anyone suggest how I can find a fanatical horde?

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
Thanks, shipmates, for helpful suggestions on obtaining EU flag (and window protection). Now, can anyone suggest how I can find a fanatical horde?

Well, the Tory party conference is coming up.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Eigon
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I see Boris's bus is back, with the same claim of £350 million for the NHS....

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Alan Cresswell

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If Boris can find an extra £350m per week that then gets spent on the NHS, good on him say I. It just won't come from what's currently forming the UK contribution to the EU budget.

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Eirenist
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Boris the Bold envisages a 'glorious future' for the UK outside the EU.

'"I don't know what you mean by 'glory'," Alice said.

'Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. "Of course you don't - till I tell you. I meant 'there's a nice knock-down argument for you!'"

'"But 'glory' doesn't mean 'a nice knock-down argument'" Alice objected.

'"When I use a word'" Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."

'"The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."

'"The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be Master - that's all."'

(Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass)

And that's what it's all about, isn't it?

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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Rocinante
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Is Boris daring May to sack him so he can launch his leadership bid? Is he calculating that he needs to do this before the members start leaning towards Rees-Mogg (God help us)? The Telegraph article seemed to be precisely targeted at the Tory faithful.

Johnsonian ambition detumesced after the referendum he never intended to win and the Gove betrayal. He may now have realised that the only way to escape from his firm sidelining by May is to move to defenestrate her before someone else does.(Foreign Secretary with no responsibility for Brexit or trade - May rather overdid the humiliation there.)

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roybart
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Is there any likelihood that the selection of a Brexit extremist as party leader (and therefore P.M., I assume) could trigger a split in the Tory party?

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by roybart:
Is there any likelihood that the selection of a Brexit extremist as party leader (and therefore P.M., I assume) could trigger a split in the Tory party?

Only on a level of discourse. As long as there is a prospect of keeping power, the usual suspects will fulminate wildly and then obediently allow themselves to be herded through the division lobby.

and it strikes me that Boris has realised that his best chance of survival politically if the country is subjected to a hard Brexit.

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roybart
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Also (with apologies for the double post), what is the basis of Johnson's support? Who likes him? Why? Over here he seems rather like a self-publicizing joke. But so did Trump, and see how wrong we were about his political prospects.

Cross posted wjth chris stiles.

[ 17. September 2017, 12:48: Message edited by: roybart ]

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"The consolations of the imaginary are not imaginary consolations."
-- Roger Scruton

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by roybart:
Also (with apologies for the double post), what is the basis of Johnson's support?

Middle-aged pub bores who suffer from minor chronic pain and thus adopt a stance of weaponized viciousness to the rest of humanity.

The same people who like Clarkson and Farage.

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roybart
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And does the Tory party (and Britain as a whole) have so many of these that they can elect a Party leader not to mention an electible PM?

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"The consolations of the imaginary are not imaginary consolations."
-- Roger Scruton

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by roybart:
And does the Tory party (and Britain as a whole) have so many of these that they can elect a Party leader not to mention an electible PM?

Over half of the Tory rank and file are above 60, and you could argue that Johnson would be - in some ways - more 'realistic' a choice to such people than Hague, Howard or IDS. He has some name recognition and is seen by them as something of a 'character' - plus if he takes a hard brexit line, enough of them may be willing to hold their nose and vote for him on the basis that he will get the job done.
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Jane R
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Well, there's got to be a first time for everything...
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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by roybart:
And does the Tory party (and Britain as a whole) have so many of these that they can elect a Party leader not to mention an electible PM?

Over half of the Tory rank and file are above 60, and you could argue that Johnson would be - in some ways - more 'realistic' a choice to such people than Hague, Howard or IDS. He has some name recognition and is seen by them as something of a 'character' - plus if he takes a hard brexit line, enough of them may be willing to hold their nose and vote for him on the basis that he will get the job done.
Boris can at least point to his comparative success while Mayor of London to show for his efforts, which neither Hague, IDS nor Howard can do. My feeing is that Boris is angling for the blue-rinse vote at conference, via the "Michael Heseltine effect".

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la vie en rouge
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Is the blue-rinse vote enough to win elections these days? It seems to me that relying on the votes of older people is precisely what brought about Mrs. May’s downfall in the last election.

People under thirty are waking up to the fact that need to take an interest in politics. And they are voting for the Labour party.

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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Martin60
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It's her utter incompetence, actually worse than Cameron's, but not Blair's, in announcing good socialist dementia tax BEFORE calling the election that's so depressing.

Ah well, we're about to become Europe's Singapoor.

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Love wins

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by roybart:
Also (with apologies for the double post), what is the basis of Johnson's support?

Middle-aged pub bores who suffer from minor chronic pain and thus adopt a stance of weaponized viciousness to the rest of humanity.

The same people who like Clarkson and Farage.

That's mainly me, but I'm a Corbynista. Well I would be if he'd had his head above the parapet for a month and more it feels like.

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Love wins

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Is the blue-rinse vote enough to win elections these days? It seems to me that relying on the votes of older people is precisely what brought about Mrs. May’s downfall in the last election.

People under thirty are waking up to the fact that need to take an interest in politics. And they are voting for the Labour party.

The blue-rinse vote is important at conference and they do turn out to vote. Moreover many of them fell for the scare tactics about Corbyn being a Sinn Feiner last time around. I wonder if that will change now that the government has got into bed with "the other lot"?

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Is the blue-rinse vote enough to win elections these days? It seems to me that relying on the votes of older people is precisely what brought about Mrs. May’s downfall in the last election.

Well, I don't pretend it's a winning strategy necessarily - just that they need to think that it might be.

After all - they governed by arrangements with other parties since 2010 - and I think a lot of Tory supporters - as well as the media - often forget this.

Anyway, the indications are that Gove/Johnson have chosen this time to make another attempt to upset the apple cart, so I suppose we will see what we will see.

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Baptist Trainfan
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Well, this is the apple (and Party Conference) season!
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Jane R
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Sioni Sais:
quote:
Moreover many of them fell for the scare tactics about Corbyn being a Sinn Feiner last time around. I wonder if that will change now that the government has got into bed with "the other lot"?
Doubt it. The DUP is not linked with terrorists who conducted campaigns on the mainland, and the gutter press is being careful not to draw everyone's attention to just how vile they are.
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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by roybart:
And does the Tory party (and Britain as a whole) have so many of these that they can elect a Party leader not to mention an electible PM?

Over half of the Tory rank and file are above 60, and you could argue that Johnson would be - in some ways - more 'realistic' a choice to such people than Hague, Howard or IDS. He has some name recognition and is seen by them as something of a 'character' - plus if he takes a hard brexit line, enough of them may be willing to hold their nose and vote for him on the basis that he will get the job done.
It looks that way. Presumably, he is trying to preempt May's speech on Friday; there are rumours that she is going to suggest some payments to EU in return for a deal, so the Ultras will probably try to undermine that.

But Boris seems to have drawn flak, partly because he resurrected the 'money to the NHS' deal, which is now very suspect. He also seems to state that everybody agreed that we must leave the single market - no, some Leave people argued for staying.

As the joke goes, before the EU negotiations begin again, negotiations must carry on in the Tory party, and quite soon, we will be informed as to their outcome. Aren't we lucky?

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Doublethink.
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Sioni Sais:
quote:
Moreover many of them fell for the scare tactics about Corbyn being a Sinn Feiner last time around. I wonder if that will change now that the government has got into bed with "the other lot"?
Doubt it. The DUP is not linked with terrorists who conducted campaigns on the mainland, and the gutter press is being careful not to draw everyone's attention to just how vile they are.
Link

This didn't get much coverage on the mainland.

[ 18. September 2017, 12:38: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Boris can at least point to his comparative success while Mayor of London to show for his efforts, which neither Hague, IDS nor Howard can do. My feeing is that Boris is angling for the blue-rinse vote at conference, via the "Michael Heseltine effect".

By 'comparative' you mean in relation to Hague et al? I wouldn't have described Johnson's time in London as a success relative to anyone else. Leaving aside all the white elephants he managed the considerable feat of bringing in a new make of bus that turned out even more unpopular than Livingstone's bendy buses which it was supposed to replace.

I suppose Johnson's basic appeal is that he looks posh, which gives the Tories a warm feeling, and he looks authentic because you can't imagine anyone calculating being so blatantly untruthful.

[ 18. September 2017, 15:04: Message edited by: Dafyd ]

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:

I suppose Johnson's basic appeal is that he looks posh, which gives the Tories a warm feeling, and he looks authentic because you can't imagine anyone calculating being so blatantly untruthful.

You missed charm. He does have charm and that works for a surprising number of people, even those who don't like him.
Charm, personality, charisma; all things that get people elected and forgiven.
With Boris it is natural and calculated at once. But it works.

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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Cod
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He was down here a few months ago and made himself extremely popular - and this in a country that hasn't much time for the stereotypical English toff.

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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier

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fletcher christian

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He preaches a populist message and has a facade of the blundering buffoon and appears likeable. That's what a lot of people see on the surface and they either don't see beyond that or they chose not to. What is also present is an unpleasant attitude to foreigners, an extremely insular politics and a bare faced ability to perpetuate a lie even when it's been exposed. I doubt these issues are good traits in a prospective future leader of the country, but perhaps people feel the alternatives are worse. It would be like having an apparently more stupid version of Trump for PM but likely even more of a wily fox underneath all the bluster. Personally, I tend to think of the man as extremely dangerous.

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Staretz Silouan

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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Quite right fletcher. If Jeremy Clarkson was in politics his method and message would be the same: well educated, smart, but plays dumb.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:

I suppose Johnson's basic appeal is that he looks posh, which gives the Tories a warm feeling, and he looks authentic because you can't imagine anyone calculating being so blatantly untruthful.

You missed charm. He does have charm and that works for a surprising number of people, even those who don't like him.
Charm, personality, charisma; all things that get people elected and forgiven.
With Boris it is natural and calculated at once. But it works.

Boris’ problem is that he’s yesterday’s shiny new thing. He’s been replaced by Rees-Mogg (or Moggy FFS) and Ruth Davidson etc. Both are better politicians and totally showing him up. He’s also heavily linked with Brexit. If / when it all goes horribly wrong, there’s only so much blame he’s going to be able to shift. Same goes for the Tories. Brexit is totally their thing.

Boris’ mates always said that he’d shine if he got a decent job. He hasn’t. He’s just confirmed he really is all style, no substance and not interested in anything other than himself.

He’s no longer that popular with Tories if the recent survey’s on ConservativeHome are anything to go by. (According to the Guardian). Voters also seem less keen. He’s only got a 3,000 vote majority.

The Telegraph column read like someone having a final throw of the dice. An attempt to present himself to the Ultras as the keeper of the One True Brexit ™ flame before resigning and launching a leadership bid. If May had any sense she’d call his bluff and sack him. (As she has none, she won’t).

A leadership contest is likely to lead to another election. Which the Tories are almost certain to lose. Hopefully. I’d far sooner Starmer led our negotiations than the Tories.

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Quite right fletcher. If Jeremy Clarkson was in politics his method and message would be the same: well educated, smart, but plays dumb.

It is hard to disagree that this quote from a recent LRB isn't accurate:

"..he seems to know that the laughter that surrounds him is a substitute for thought rather than its conduit, and that puts him at a wonderful advantage. If we are chuckling at him, we are not likely to be thinking too hard about his doggedly neoliberal and pro-City agenda, let alone doing anything to counter it. With a true genius for taking the temperature of a country that has never been closer to sinking ‘sniggering beneath the watery main’, Boris Johnson has become his own satirist: safe, above all, in the knowledge that the best way to make sure the satire aimed at you is gentle and unchallenging is to create it yourself."

There is plenty of evidence that - as you say above Boris is willing to lie and stretch the truth and then attempt to brazen things out. There is a select committee hearing where he was questioned at length by Andrew Tyrie over his various claims about EU regulations, where you can visibly see his bluster/guff approach fall apart - I can only find a portion of it at the moment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY-DE5cuc4Y

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Is the blue-rinse vote enough to win elections these days? It seems to me that relying on the votes of older people is precisely what brought about Mrs. May’s downfall in the last election.

The blue-rinse vote is important at conference and they do turn out to vote.
Indeed, Boris isn't playing to the electorate at large. He's only addressing the members of the Conservative Party, and more specifically those who get heard at Conference. It's still all about the internal feuds of the Tories, played out at the expense of the nation.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Is the blue-rinse vote enough to win elections these days? It seems to me that relying on the votes of older people is precisely what brought about Mrs. May’s downfall in the last election.

The blue-rinse vote is important at conference and they do turn out to vote.
Indeed, Boris isn't playing to the electorate at large. He's only addressing the members of the Conservative Party, and more specifically those who get heard at Conference. It's still all about the internal feuds of the Tories, played out at the expense of the nation.
To paraphrase William Hague's article in the Telegraph, if the Tories don't get their shit together, who gets to be the next party leader is irrelevant. Corybn will be PM.

It annoys me beyond reason that the biggest issue facing our country in generations and the discussion about what kind of country we'll be is being dominated by that ... that ... Well, that.
[Mad]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Interesting article by Faisal Islam here, in which he makes various points, the chief one being that no deal is now impossible for the govt, as it would not get through parliament. Also, business leaders would have hysterics over it.

If this is true (a big if), it would explain Boris splurging in the Torygraph, as he is trying to put his finger in the soft Brexit dyke.

And there has to be a transition.

Some amusing colour - Tories thought that Corbyn would attract Glastonbury hippies, but he also drew in middle class people, freaked out by May's hard Brexit stance.

A vignette of McDonnell meeting with business leaders - I wonder what they talked about? We are quite comfortable with the rich.

Hey, this guy is very bright, he seems brighter than the politicians (Islam I mean).

http://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-the-next-three-months-are-totally-unpredictable-11019976

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Stejjie
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# 13941

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So according to official extracts on the Guardian's website, Mrs May is going to say in her speech in Florence this afternoon:
quote:
While the UK’s departure from the EU is inevitably a difficult process, it is in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed … so I believe we share a profound sense of responsibility to make this change work smoothly and sensibly, not just for people today but for the next generation who will inherit the world we leave them.
Which sounds awfully like, "We made this mess but it's your job to clean it up". Which I'm sure will go down delightfully with Barnier and the EU leaders who, er, haven't been invited to what is apparently a very important Brexit-related speech.

But then, this seems to have been the government's approach (such as it is) throughout: create the mess, then blame the EU and tell them to sort it out. How long before they decide it's not worth it?

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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This speech is supposed to break the log-jam. But hasn't this been created by UK reluctance to discuss the EU citizens, the leaving payment, and Ireland? If the UK got a move on with these, there would be no log-jam.

But there is probably another agenda going on - the Tory party conference coming up. May will be able to go there and say that she is being productive, but the nasty EU won't help.

I was amused to see that some journos are saying that Barnier has already replied to May's speech, in Rome, just to upstage her.

[ 22. September 2017, 13:35: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
This speech is supposed to break the log-jam. But hasn't this been created by UK reluctance to discuss the EU citizens, the leaving payment, and Ireland? If the UK got a move on with these, there would be no log-jam.

But there is probably another agenda going on - the Tory party conference coming up. May will be able to go there and say that she is being productive, but the nasty EU won't help.

I was amused to see that some journos are saying that Barnier has already replied to May's speech, in Rome, just to upstage her.

Just remember that the referendum was supposed to break the log-jam, then the recent election (which only made the Irish border question more complicated) and now there is the hope that the conference of one political party, rather than negotiations, will do so.

The self-deception goes on and on. Barnier doesn't need to speak. May et al knows where he stands.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Well, that was the mouse that roared, all I can see in May's speech is a 2 year transition, which is not a substantive issue in any case. On the issues of EU citizens, the leaving payment and Ireland, very little of note.

I suppose it's pablum for faithful Tories. You can expect the trash media to celebrate this as brave new Brexit proposals, May to the rescue, and so on. The EU will see it as a bucket of sick. So far, no deal looks quite possible.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Well, she is kicking the can down the road for another 2 years, by which time, she'll probably be gone. 4 years to a hard Brexit then. Get those lorry parks ready.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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I think what May is basically admitting is that the whole idea all along was to refuse to properly participate in a discussion with the EU - because the basis on which the EU wants to negotiate is not acceptable to the Tories - and so they're hoping to keep kicking the can down the road until after the German General Election.

At that point, it seems to me, May is hoping that France and Germany will have clear sight of the fact that the UK leaving will leave them (Germany and France) facing increased EU contributions and increased costs - and that they'll then be prepared to negotiate better terms.

It's a fairly inept exercise of Game Theory after Yanis Varoufakis that failed in Greece but which the Brexiteers seem to think is going to work in the UK because we have greater leverage.

Another thing I was thinking reading the reports of the speech is that it is finally coming out what the UK actually wants and what the Tory gov is prepared to do to get it.

The fundamentals appear to be that it wants all low-paid EU workers to leave (essential workers and better paid can stay. Aren't we generous?), they want all UK retirees in the EU to continue sitting in the sun (even if it requires continuing to make payments for EU healthcare), and they want EU countries to make payments for NHS treatment for any EU workers that remain here.

They basically don't care about having free access to the single market - it is a bargaining chip because they think borders would hurt the EU more than it would hurt the UK. They don't really care about making payments to the EU, because they don't believe they legally have to and/or can be forced to if they refuse to recognise the ECJ as an authority going forwards - so it can be held as a sword of Damocles over the heads of the French and Germans.

At the end of the day, they think that the threat of throwing toys out of the pram and walking away will have the same effect as doing it in a Cairo souk; the shopkeeper will come running out and desperately accept a last-minute deal.

And what that will come down to is how much the EU values the UK contributions and the extent to which they (France and Germany) can compromise without destroying the SM and/or the EU.

Of course, the danger is that there is no agreement, the EU 'shopkeeper' is not able to come out into the street with a good deal as May walks out tutting - and that the end result is chaos both inside the EU and for the UK.

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arse

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think what May is basically admitting is that the whole idea all along was to refuse to properly participate in a discussion with the EU - because the basis on which the EU wants to negotiate is not acceptable to the Tories - and so they're hoping to keep kicking the can down the road until after the German General Election.

Some of them are - maybe - but at this point the Tory party could hardly be said to speak with one voice.

At this point, regardless of how they try and deflect blame onto the dastardly foreigners, some of the blame will be seen to stick to them.

and businesses and supply chains have now been given a countdown, they'll be moving with increasing urgency. The chances are high that come the end of the two years - if May lasts that long - the UK will end up in another period of chaos.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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The next step should be interesting, as May has given very little detail on the 3 outstanding items, so will the EU say, not enough?

More paranoid people are saying that this is deliberate, and May intends to crash the negotiations. But that's forgetting the Tory conference, which May has to get through, by presenting herself as the doughty British warrior who went to foreign lands and pulled their beard. Or something.

So I'm doubtful that it's a set up, designed for a walk-out. But there's not enough at the moment to carry negotiations forward.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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