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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
The next step should be interesting, as May has given very little detail on the 3 outstanding items, so will the EU say, not enough?

More paranoid people are saying that this is deliberate, and May intends to crash the negotiations.

Deliberate or not, this is the inevitable end point of the negotiations at present.

In order for the negotiations to succeed the British government has to - at some point - have clear stances on a number of issues. On a number of issues, any stance but the 'go whistle' one is unacceptable to a small and very vocal minority with the Tory party who are supported by parts of the media. Therefore no Tory politician will have a clear stance on any of them, and any agreement reached has to be couched as one that was forced on them. This tactic only works if the EU is willing to play along - and I don't see why they should be.

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Martin60
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Singapoor here we come.

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Love wins

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Singapoor here we come.

Complete with 80% of housing stock owned by the state?
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Alan Cresswell

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There's a lot to be said for public ownership of housing stock. Lack of affordable housing is one of the big issues facing the UK at the moment - feeding homelessness, and all those people struggling to pay the rent, the JAMs. A decent sized council housing stock would alleviate much of the housing problem, and associated social problems.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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mr cheesy
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I think you're all missing the main point: if there isn't a market to export to soon (ie the EU or somewhere else appearing as if by magic), there is going to be the square root of feck all to spend on housing, by the state, by private owners or by anyone else.

And if we don't have exports and don't have anyone who wants to sell stuff to us, then we'll not be able to afford to buy anything either.

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arse

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Singapoor here we come.

Complete with 80% of housing stock owned by the state?
No, no, no, no, no Chris. None of that silly bolshie nonsense. Zero tax for rich foreigners, especially if they buy up all social housing and everything behind the façade of state health and 'social' care and education. Free London offices for all foreign banks. See how it'll all trickle down!

[ 23. September 2017, 13:35: Message edited by: Martin60 ]

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Love wins

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There's a lot to be said for public ownership of housing stock. Lack of affordable housing is one of the big issues facing the UK at the moment

Absolutely. My point was more that those (mainly on the right) who point at Singapore as a possible model blithely ignore all the ways in which Singapore is a very different society and focus narrowly on economics and low headline rates of income tax, ignoring public ownership of housing, compulsory savings, the very low dependency ratio and comparatively high rates of migration that keep everything balanced.

[ 23. September 2017, 13:43: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think you're all missing the main point:

I don't think we were - we were reacting to Martin's point (which I assumed was made facetiously) that the UK could become like Singapore.
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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
I don't think we were - we were reacting to Martin's point (which I assumed was made facetiously) that the UK could become like Singapore.

Fair enough, I'm sure Martin was being facetious too. I think there is a danger of saying aloud things like "what is going to become of the NHS post-Brexit" without recognising that there is a great danger that we'll not have an NHS if we can't get exports.

I seems to me highly likely that the Tories are trying to dismantle the state. I don't really know why, but I assume somewhere along the line if the end result is really terrible they'll abandon ship.

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arse

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Eirenist
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I'm no Tory, but I think some of us need to remind ourselves that not every one of them is insane.

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
I'm no Tory, but I think some of us need to remind ourselves that not every one of them is insane.

Absolutely correct. Some are stupid, some are selfish, some are ignorant...

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If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

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Eirenist
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It is a great mistake to despise your enemies.

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
I'm no Tory, but I think some of us need to remind ourselves that not every one of them is insane.

Who said they were insane? It is clear that at least some of them are of the notion that it would be a good idea to shrink the state - and perhaps from their point of view this would make perfect sense. Equally it's clear that there are others who for all their fine words will - when it comes to a vote - obediently march through the correct division lobby.
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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
I'm no Tory, but I think some of us need to remind ourselves that not every one of them is insane.

Bit of a straw man, isn't it? I think the Tories are dicking around with Brexit, and with the country in general, but they are getting it away with it. This is partly because a lot of people probably don't have a clue what Brexit involves. See the amazement when somebody suggested that air travel could be affected. Who knew?

I suppose the Ultras do have a clear plan, to crash out, and take the consequences. I doubt if this is widely popular, but it seems that Mrs May has to give it some respect, via Boris.

So it's not insanity; rather, mediocre thinking, ignorance, and lack of transparency. Welcome to the political world.

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no path

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PaulTH*
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I think the Tories are dicking around with Brexit

EVERYONE is dicking around with Brexit. So much so that I often say, without any blasphemous intent, "Jesus where are we?" The one day consensus between Boris and Hammond over Theresa's speech has blown apart again over the weekend. Nigel Farage says that a two year implementation is "two fingers to 17.4 million people" and now threatens to form a new Brexit party. In the meanwhile, the Labour Party Conference has refused to discuss Brexit, while hundreds of ardent socialists protest outside that Brexit should be reversed. So let's not pretend that Labour has any unity on the subject either.

In addition, the next round of Brexit talks this week will hit the buffers immediately when Mr Barnier says that he still wants £60 billion plus before he'll talk future arrangements, while Britain's voters won't tolerate anything above the £20 billion already offered. It's an entire shambolic clusterfuck. There is no consensus in the country, in parliament, in the Tory government or in the Labour opposition as to what to do about Brexit, and the oft touted transitional period or implementation phase or whatever else we call it will be blocked by the EU unless we roll over and give them everything they want. Happy days!

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Yours in Christ
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PaulTH*
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Sorry I meant to add that the only likely outcome of this is the hardest Brexit, because the mood in much of Europe is that we should be expelled without a deal in 2019. Saints preserve us. Again no blasphemy!

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Yours in Christ
Paul

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Alan Cresswell

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If there's a Brexit, and it's still not too late for common sense to prevail and step back from the brink of Brexit, then it's looking increasingly unlikely that there will be anything other than a very hard Brexit. The time constraints don't really allow any other option, two years isn't long when you start that period with a clearly defined plan for what you want to achieve, it's no time at all when you kick off the process before working out what you're doing.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
In the meanwhile, the Labour Party Conference has refused to discuss Brexit, while hundreds of ardent socialists protest outside that Brexit should be reversed. So let's not pretend that Labour has any unity on the subject either.

You are talking like there is a wonderful solution to this mess, if only people put their minds to it.

It's not Labour that are supposed to be leading this country at this minute. This entire mess is all on the Tories and their fellow travelers in the press and UKIP (and I'll save some ire for people who voted Tory in 2015 because they thought Ed Milliband was the second coming of Trotsky and had 'stabbed his brother in the back').

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Sorry I meant to add that the only likely outcome of this is the hardest Brexit, because the mood in much of Europe is that we should be expelled without a deal in 2019. Saints preserve us. Again no blasphemy!

You're not being expelled - the UK voted to leave. That's not the EU's fault.
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Alan Cresswell

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Yep, our stupid political leaders have decided to expel us from the EU, against the wishes of the majority of the UK electorate. It's just trendy to blame the EU for everything, especially things that the EU has no hand in.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
against the wishes of the majority of the UK electorate.

I have to say this ongoing complaint irks me as much as those still protesting that Hillary won the popular vote.

It reminds me of the remark, etched indelibly on my brain, by a French football commentator reporting on a defeat by the national side: "we were by far the better team, the opponents just happened to score more goals".

[ 25. September 2017, 07:26: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
against the wishes of the majority of the UK electorate.

I have to say this ongoing complaint irks me as much as those still protesting that Hillary won the popular vote.

It's simple maths, and the effect of not having put a defined question before the electorate. 16.1M people voted to remain in the EU. 17.4M voted for some form of Brexit - how many of those would have voted for what the government is cobbling together is an unknown, but it would only take 1M of those people to have voted Remain if they had known what form of Leave they were going to get and we wouldn't be in this mess.

If on the 24th June 2016 David Cameron sent a letter to the EU announcing our withdrawal from the EU, and a week later had a team of negotiators in Brussels demanding that the EU start negotiating because they had a defined plan for Brexit in their hands, one that the UK electorate had voted for, then I wouldn't be complaining (preferences for a super-majority aside, with Leave providing a detailed plan for Brexit such that everyone could have been informed of the issues then that would be a democratic decision).

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Eutychus
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The acid test is whether you would still be making the exact same arguments if the result had been 16.1m people in favour of Leave and 17.4m in favour of Remain.

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

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Alan Cresswell

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The difference is that Remain was defined. We all know what membership of the EU is. We still don't really know what the government is going to seek for the relationship between the UK and EU when we're outside the EU - so it was impossible for someone to make an informed vote for Leave.

The nature of the referendum, called without sufficient time to define the prefered Leave option, was always deficient. It denied the electorate the chance for an informed decision to vote Leave. It meant that after the vote the government was forced to define what Leave means, under pressure from the nutters to get it done quickly - and hence the mess we're in now of the government making policy on the hoof, policy that is unlikely to satisfy the majority of those who voted Leave. If the result had been the otherway round it would have been a deficient referendum causing no harm, and there would have been time to run it again but done properly (which would, IMO, take at least 10 years for the public consultation and discussion).

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Eutychus
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I've no doubt you're right, but as far as I know the Remain campaign accepted the terms of the referendum. I'm willing to be proved wrong, but I don't remember any protests on the part of Remainers in that respect prior to the vote, or calls for a supermajority to apply.

Things are very different, say, from the arguments about the SSM "survey" in Australia, whose defects are being pointed out ahead of any result.

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I've no doubt you're right, but as far as I know the Remain campaign accepted the terms of the referendum. I'm willing to be proved wrong, but I don't remember any protests on the part of Remainers in that respect prior to the vote, or calls for a supermajority to apply.

Things are very different, say, from the arguments about the SSM "survey" in Australia, whose defects are being pointed out ahead of any result.

It never occurred to any of the "Remainers" that the vote would go against them, certainly not Cameron, Osborne and their friends. Even Theresa May was for staying. Their complacency including an unwillingness of the "Remain" Tories to campaign against a noisy, prejudiced and disreputable minority within their parliamentary party caused the mess we are in in now, and shall be for many years to come.

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Alan:
quote:

....17.4M voted for some form of Brexit...

I think this can be stated in terms of the result but I'm not sure it was actually that straight forward at all. It may have been in a large part to how it was reported here, but there was more than an explicit suggestion that it boiled down to three specific issues:

1. They genuinely believed that they were voting to put an enormous amount of money into the NHS on top of its current budget at a time when it was under pressure and under a government who probably has a significant proportion of its membership who would like to be rid of its financial burden.

2. They voted on the basis of immigration, hoping that by leaving the EU they wouldn't have to accept those dirty foreigners coming in and stealing their jobs.

3. The rise of nationalism. National sentiment in Britain has been rising in an insular sense and with a desire to rewrite history. Part of this is undoubtedly due to former colonies finding their voice all of a sudden, which must be unnerving if you believed that the empire brought people out of ignorance into a land of milk and honey. But even a cursory view of what Britain is currently producing in terms of art, theatre, cinema and literature confirms a lazy nationalism and a history viewed through rose tinted glass. Take a look at the nonsense that is 'Victoria and Abdul' which would more accurately have been called 'Look At My Latest Exotic Pet.', but that probably wouldn't have sold tickets.. The memorialisation of war, and particularly the first world war, has become quite nauseating in its peculiar obsession. Political contests are won and lost, not on the merits of the argued points, but on who happens to be able to employ vague and unspecified accusations of a loss of sovereignty to best effect. The public long ago swallowed the lie that someone other than the British government was telling everyone what to do and how to live.

Clearly, not everyone who voted for Brexit voted on this basis. There are those who who simply hold to isolationist politics, who resist globalisation, who hold to the 'shock doctrine' and the rich who felt they wouldn't be overly effected by whatever happens. However, I certainly feel that if you took out the votes that directly related to the three areas outlined above you probably wouldn't have a huge vote at all.

[ 25. September 2017, 09:53: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Sorry I meant to add that the only likely outcome of this is the hardest Brexit, because the mood in much of Europe is that we should be expelled without a deal in 2019. Saints preserve us. Again no blasphemy!

You're not being expelled - the UK voted to leave. That's not the EU's fault.
There is something surreal about the reversal which goes on for the Ultras, whereby the UK wish to become a third country is converted into the EU expelling the UK! It reminds me of violent husbands saying, 'she made me do it'.

I suppose it's a cover against the possible economic damage which Brexit may bring, then the Ultras can blame the EU.

Similarly, Mrs May has still not given any detail on the 3 outstanding issues about withdrawal, but presumably, the Tories will say that the EU are being obdurate.

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no path

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

Similarly, Mrs May has still not given any detail on the 3 outstanding issues about withdrawal, but presumably, the Tories will say that the EU are being obdurate.

and as this Irish Times article points out, all she did was kick the can down the road while explicitly ruling out all the possible deals that the EU currently already has mechanisms for, which means the UK is still in 'have cake and eat it' territory.
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quetzalcoatl
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One of the interesting points about Brexit, is that being in the EEA is not the same as being in the EU.

You would think that this would have been discussed before the referendum, but that would be to over-estimate the ability of politicians.

But the Tories appear to be rejecting EEA membership, possibly because it has that dreaded word 'European' in it, and the Ultras may actually believe that it is in the EU. But then of course, EEA membership involves free movement (I think).

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no path

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

Similarly, Mrs May has still not given any detail on the 3 outstanding issues about withdrawal, but presumably, the Tories will say that the EU are being obdurate.

and as this Irish Times article points out, all she did was kick the can down the road while explicitly ruling out all the possible deals that the EU currently already has mechanisms for, which means the UK is still in 'have cake and eat it' territory.
I think the same is true of the 3 issues - EU citizens, Ireland, and final payment. I don't think Barnier dreamed these up one night after too much Belgian beer, but they follow logically from the EU procedures for leaving.

But the Tories seem to want to do a trade deal, before doing a secession deal. Or alternatively, they are in full procrastination mode.

It reminds me of my brother-in-law, who when going through divorce, refused to discuss finance, children, and any legal stuff. Avoidance, I suppose.

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no path

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Jane R
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Yup. "We got ourselves into this mess, so it's your responsibility to get us out of it."

This is known as Taking Back Control.

Actually, come to think of it, they haven't even accepted responsibility for the mess yet. It is the Will of the People (or at least, the will of 52% of those who actually voted in the election and were stupid enough to believe Bojo, Farrago and Gove). So really it's our fault, for being stupid enough to think that sovereignty beans would solve all our problems.

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quetzalcoatl
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There is the odd situation whereby both Tories and Labour are trying to avoid saying anything too specific. I suppose Mrs May is looking over her shoulder at the Ultras, and the danger of a leadership challenge, so cannot say anything too soft. On the other hand, some journos are saying that the election went badly for her, because a lot of people were scared of her hard Brexit talk.

Labour seem rather similar, although you get the impression that Starmer wouldn't mind a stab at EEA, if Corbyn will let him.

Another possibility is to have another transition after the transition, and then sort of forget that it's a transition. But M. Barnier will get very cross about that.

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no path

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

But the Tories seem to want to do a trade deal, before doing a secession deal.

From one point of view, that makes sense. If you take the long-term view, the important question is "what sort of relationship should the UK have with the EU in the future" and the precise details of the transition are of second order.

And you can, I think, quite sensibly think "we tried to get to a new relationship within the EU, but the EU didn't want that, so now we're trying to get there outside the EU, and we should talk about the important bits first.

The EU, on the other hand, knows that it has the upper hand at the moment, and so is pushing for the "divorce bill" to be settled before any trade negotiations. If it negotiated a new trade deal first, it would have a much weaker negotiating position over the divorce bill.

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quetzalcoatl
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But you could argue that the Tories are being very picky about doing a trade deal. They are rejecting various avenues, such as EEA, for various reasons, yet keep saying that they want something glorious and all-enveloping. Hence, the accusations about cake and eat it.

I suppose that the secession deal has now become an entry point. I mean, that the EU will judge how much they can trust the UK negotiators, by how much they take seriously the 3 items on the agenda. You could say, not very much, since Mrs May tends to mention them in passing.

Are they not serious because they want to crash out, or because they are frightened by the Ultras, or because they are stupid? Or all of them?

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quetzalcoatl
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I suppose that's rather inaccurate, since the Tories partly don't want EEA because it contains freedom of movement, and maybe some of them still believe it's in the EU. So they want the nice things, and not the nasty things, but M. Barnier is urging them to take their medicine.

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no path

Posts: 9560 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
But you could argue that the Tories are being very picky about doing a trade deal. They are rejecting various avenues, such as EEA

(At least some of) the Tories want an EEA type arrangement, that includes a customs union and an FTA in goods and services. Simultaneously an overlapping subset want no freedom of movement, no payment to the EU, freedom to set any and all regulation of products (or none).

This is a circle that cannot be squared, so they are just punting things down the road to the point where they can just blame obstreperous foreigners (I assume also that originally a few of them thought that the EU may fold in the wake of a Brexit vote).

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quetzalcoatl
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That point about freedom to set regulations could really bite, as there is no way that the EU can give way on this. There is no point in having a common market, without common regulations.

This is the point about non-tariff barriers, since if the UK gives up regulatory convergence, then every border in the EU will become a choke-point for UK goods. If they want to do this, they should be building lorry-parks, constructing IT systems to deal with it all, working out how to fly UK planes, and so on.

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no path

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
One of the interesting points about Brexit, is that being in the EEA is not the same as being in the EU.

You would think that this would have been discussed before the referendum, but that would be to over-estimate the ability of politicians.

Though, several prominent Leave campaigners were perfectly happy to talk about EEA membership - because that was the future relationship with the EU that they wanted. From what I saw at the time of the campaign, that position was particularly popular among fishing communities - it retains the EU market for British caught fish, but removes much of the European fisheries regulations.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Alan:
quote:

....17.4M voted for some form of Brexit...

I think this can be stated in terms of the result but I'm not sure it was actually that straight forward at all.
Which is my point. That number can not be interpreted in a straight forward manner at all.

I generally agree with your big three points, though I hope that very few believed there would be any more money for the NHS as a result of Brexit - the fallacy of the bus slogan had been pointed out by so many people that anyone who still believed it would have a) been stupid and b) probably going to vote Leave anyway.

The lies repeated about immigration for decades was probably the biggest Leave vote winner. Of course, immigration is a net economic and social benefit to the UK (and, every other nation), but the constant repetition that immigration is a problem had resulted in too many people believing it. I think that largely ties in within rising nationalism - if you think immigration is a problem then a xenophobic nationalism is a natural response.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:

Though, several prominent Leave campaigners were perfectly happy to talk about EEA membership - because that was the future relationship with the EU that they wanted.

Or because it suited them to allude to such a thing - because in general there was a fair constituency of people who would support the idea that the 'EU should go back to being a purely free trade area' - whether they were actually that sincere in referring to the EEA/EFTA is open to question (see the various videos of people like Farage, Hannan etc).

In any case, having made hay of the 'take back control' argument, that path isn't as easy to take politically as it once was, so they are either being 'realistic' in their terms, or nakedly opportunist. I leave it to the reader to decide which.

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chris stiles
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It appears that the more self-aware Brexiters are already setting the stage to be able to blame 'the wrong sort of Brexit' for any ill effects:

http://archive.is/K6jsf

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Martin60
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I get there in the end, 37% of the electorate were allowed to destroy our political economy http://forum.ship-of-fools.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=020320;p=5#000230

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Love wins

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Eutychus
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As discussed on the other thread, they were indeed allowed (unlike the Catalonians), and that is what democracy is all about.

Them's was the rules, and nobody saw fit to challenge them before the outcome.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
As discussed on the other thread, they were indeed allowed (unlike the Catalonians), and that is what democracy is all about.

Them's was the rules, and nobody saw fit to challenge them before the outcome.

Well, probably more accurately, not enough people saw fit to challenge them, or no one who was heard. I know when this last came up, I couldn't find any posts where I had expressed issues with the lack of a definition of Brexit before the referendum was held, so I can't put down evidence that I was asking how anyone could make an informed choice between the options we were given before the vote took place. But, I'm sure there were people making those points.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Eutychus
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The lack of definition is a separate issue. Martin's concern is about the numbers, eg on an acceptable quorum.

It looks mindlessly stupid with hindsight not to have included anything about turnout levels or a 2/3 majority, but I think the fact is that both sides thought they had a fair chance at winning on the suggested terms.

Complaining about those terms after having lost on them is a pretty pointless excercise unless it leads to a bill on reforming the conditions for a referendum.

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
It appears that the more self-aware Brexiters are already setting the stage to be able to blame 'the wrong sort of Brexit' for any ill effects:

http://archive.is/K6jsf

Yes, I've noticed that the various North blogs on Brexit are now sounding very alarmed by the way things are going, or rather, not going. I suppose the influence of the Ultras was under-estimated, and also the paralysis of May, Davis, et. al.

But I suppose the paralysis is partly a result of looking over their shoulder at the Ultras; they dare not alarm the ultra-right wing, who want to crash out of the EU, and have a low tax, low wage, economy.

By the North blogs I mean Richard North's and his son Peter.

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86634#disqus_thread

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no path

Posts: 9560 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
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Interesting arguments going on about preparing for no deal, in the sense of putting money aside for it. Because it could cost a ton of money, if you think of special lorry parks, inspection offices for goods, inspectors of goods, rerouting of certain routes, various arrangements on the Irish border, and so on.

This is a bit like playing chicken - or is it bluff? Do the UK govt really anticipate walking out with no deal, or is that a threat to the EU? If you don't play, we'll run away with the ball.

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no path

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Eutychus
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I fear that "never put down to conspiracy what you can safely attribute to incompetence" may well apply here.

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One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

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Mark Wuntoo
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# 5673

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Nick Clegg's book, published yesterday, How to stop Brexit may interest shipmates following this thread. It is a good read, in my opinion, more significant to people like me who are interested in politics but who are not too sophisticated. He argues passionately that Brexit is not inevitable and pleads for a sort of ground-swell of public opinion.

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

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