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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Interesting arguments going on about preparing for no deal, in the sense of putting money aside for it. Because it could cost a ton of money, if you think of special lorry parks, inspection offices for goods, inspectors of goods, rerouting of certain routes, various arrangements on the Irish border, and so on.
This is a bit like playing chicken - or is it bluff? Do the UK govt really anticipate walking out with no deal, or is that a threat to the EU? If you don't play, we'll run away with the ball.
If the UK walks out without a deal, it won't be taking the ball with it but leaving the ball behind.
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Back to the "No deal" scenario: Amber Rudd, the (spectacularly hapless) Home Secretary now says that would be "Unthinkable".. On the other hand, David Davis (Brexit minister and more useless still) defended the "No deal" option.
What a f*****g shambles. It's hard for a half-way adequate PM in these circumstances and Theresa May was railroaded into the job. I actually feel sorry for her.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
The House of Commons "Leaving the EU" committee was bone-achingly bad this morning.
Experts were basically asked how the dickens this is going to work. They shrugged and said "haven't got a clue".
Nobody has a clue. Nobody has the first idea how this is going to work or how to make it work.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
There's only one logical option. Which, of course, the government won't take.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Whatever it is, is politically impossible, therefore illogical.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Only politically impossible if the views of a minority of bigots are considered more important than the good of the country. So, perhaps impossible for the current lunatics running the government.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There's only one logical option. Which, of course, the government won't take.
They will end up either tearing the country apart, tearing their party apart, or both.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Well, I for one won't complain if the Tories tear themselves apart.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Back to the "No deal" scenario: Amber Rudd, the (spectacularly hapless) Home Secretary now says that would be "Unthinkable".. On the other hand, David Davis (Brexit minister and more useless still) defended the "No deal" option.
FWIW I do find the 'is a bad deal better than no deal?' question a little bit disingenuous because it's not really clear what's being asked.
If a bad deal means 'worse than WTO rules', then by definition a bad deal is worse than no deal. But for that same reason, if the EU is reasonable, and is inclined to make deals, then the deal it offers must be better than WTO because offering anything else would be a waste of everyone's time. So if a bad deal means 'the worst possible deal that the EU is likely to offer', then by definition a bad deal is better than no deal.
So really the question just means 'Which group of voters do you want to appeal to?'
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There's only one logical option. Which, of course, the government won't take.
Can you actually map that option out?
[ 17. October 2017, 19:59: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
if the EU is reasonable, and is inclined to make deals, then the deal it offers must be better than WTO because offering anything else would be a waste of everyone's time.
But "better" or "worse" depends on your point of view. Consider a UK-EU trade deal that incorporated freedom of movement. Is that "good" or "bad"? That all depends on your opinion of the freedom of movement. Most remainers would argue that freedom of movement and immigration is good for us, and so that's a good deal. Brexiteers would argue that we left the EU to get away from that, and so being forced to agree to it to get a trade deal would be a bad deal.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
I'd have thought the most logical position is to now say that negotiating a good deal is impossible so we (the UK) are going to stay in the EU for the foreseeable future.
But I fear that even by having a referendum - even if we don't actually eventually leave - the UK has torpedoed the EU.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
But "better" or "worse" depends on your point of view. Consider a UK-EU trade deal that incorporated freedom of movement. Is that "good" or "bad"? That all depends on your opinion of the freedom of movement. Most remainers would argue that freedom of movement and immigration is good for us, and so that's a good deal. Brexiteers would argue that we left the EU to get away from that, and so being forced to agree to it to get a trade deal would be a bad deal.
I think the difficulty is that other EU states seem to have devised ways to limit EU citizen's freedom of movement in ways that the UK hasn't, and whilst I think some Brexiteers might have accepted a model that was (for example) more like Belgium's rules regarding movement, that's really hard to row back to from where we (the British) are now.
And of course we've got a huge problem in that we've got a shedload of pensioners living in Europe who have no unambiguous right to live there even under EU law - given that they're not actually working.
If the whole thing goes completely doolally and the EU states refuse to entertain British pensioners who aren't working, then they'll come home and our NHS will be toast.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
But "better" or "worse" depends on your point of view. Consider a UK-EU trade deal that incorporated freedom of movement. Is that "good" or "bad"? That all depends on your opinion of the freedom of movement. Most remainers would argue that freedom of movement and immigration is good for us, and so that's a good deal. Brexiteers would argue that we left the EU to get away from that, and so being forced to agree to it to get a trade deal would be a bad deal.
That's an excellent point - and further illustrates why the question is disingenuous. It is a question about something other than what it seems to be about.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There's only one logical option. Which, of course, the government won't take.
Can you actually map that option out?
The problem is that the government have a clear idea of what they want from Brexit, and therefore are not in a position to negotiate anything.
The logical solution, indeed ISTM the only reasonable option, is for the government to sort out what they want - commission a load of studies on the effects of different forms of Brexit on all aspects of British society, form cross-party working groups (MPs, peers and others) to work through the options engaging the public, go through the Parliamentary processes of select committees and debates ... all the way to a defined and detailed plan for exiting the EU. And, I would like to end the process with a referendum on the revised question.
Of course, that process will take an extended period of time, years if not decades. Certainly more time than is left until March 2019. Therefore, the government would also need to withdraw the Article 50 statement and seek to rebuild as many of the bridges we've burnt as possible (though as we'll still be, potentially, looking at leaving the EU ... well, that puts a different perspective on things that makes our relationship with the EU different).
I can't see any other way out of the difficulty that has been created by a government unable to decide what it wants from Brexit. If the government can't decide what it wants, then let Parliament and the people do so. And, give us the time we need to do that.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
FWIW I do find the 'is a bad deal better than no deal?' question a little bit disingenuous because it's not really clear what's being asked.
and the results you get are exactly what you'd expect to get if you asked people if they preferred the tough sounding option or the weak sounding option.
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think the difficulty is that other EU states seem to have devised ways to limit EU citizen's freedom of movement in ways that the UK hasn't
Largely by following the letter of EU Law, which is explictly drawn up around freedom of movement of 'labour' rather than of 'people':
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_2.1.3.html
The problem now is that all these terms have been freighted with negative connotations that the press use to trigger a response out of the vocal minority of hardline leavers.
And so the most visible members of the Tory Party play a game where they compete to see who can say the most hardline and idiotic thing. One of the current front runners must be that non-thinking-man's idea of a thinking-man, Dan Hannan with this little misinterpretation of what the Empire was about:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/919696266522656769
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The logical solution, indeed ISTM the only reasonable option, is for the government to sort out what they want (...) Of course, that process will take an extended period of time, years if not decades.
Once again this appears to me to be totally unrealistic and unreasonable, first and foremost because it basically attempts to put the EU-27 on hold while the UK sorts its mess out.
"We're not quite sure whether we actually meant to invoke Article 50 or not, so would you chaps mind awfully if we went away to have a think about it, indefinitely?"
A reasonable way forward is one that takes into account the 27 nations the UK is negotiating with. From this side of the Channel, the way the negotiations appear to be going simply adds credence to the idea that in its arrogance, the UK never took the EU seriously in the first place.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Arethosemyfeet
Shipmate
# 17047
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Posted
This is becoming a sort of catch 22. The only way to get out of Brexit is to commit political suicide, but if you've got the necessary desire for martyrdom you're either not in power anyway or you're an ardent Brexiteer and want to martyr the whole country with you. I'm kind of hoping that May will see the writing on the wall and decide she wants to save the country even at the cost of the party. I hope the secret legal advice on revoking article 50 supports the idea that it can be done without further recourse to parliament (the relevant bill was enabling the PM rather than compelling).
Posts: 2933 | From: Hebrides | Registered: Apr 2012
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
I hope the secret legal advice on revoking article 50 supports the idea that it can be done without further recourse to parliament.
![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
What kind of banana monarchy is this?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
<weary sarcasm alert>
Listen, EU. The thing is that this marriage simply isn't working so we want to leave now. There are plenty of other fish in the sea, and we are tired of all the bizarre restrictions you want to put on us. We want to manage our own affairs, we want our own bank account.
Now, surely EU can see that the best arrangement is that we continue to cohabit. That way we can continue to share stuff like mature adults.
What? No come on now. That level of severance is ridiculous. Yes, I know what the pre-nup said, but no.
And you can come over to my half of the room and take all your shit away with you to. Wait, what are you doing? We need that. Can't you take the stuff I don't want and leave the stuff that I do.
No, look, now you're being totally unreasonable. I might be up a ladder with a chainsaw, but it is obviously EU who are being totally unreasonable.
The fact is that I'm an unimaginable catch, you've punched far above your weight in getting me. Yes EU have. You need me. You do.
So let's just stop all this arguing and get on with discussing this like adults. What do you mean? I'm being totally reasonable here.
etc and so on </sarcasm>
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Absolutely perfect. Talk to the hand of Barnier. The EU took the pain 15 months ago. They've moved on. Everything else is just solicitors. Singapoor here we come.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
In Singapore, the government owns 90% of the land, 85% of housing is public, and state owned companies account for 20% of GDP.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Aye. How do they tax foreign investment, trade, wealth, income?
[ 18. October 2017, 07:52: Message edited by: Martin60 ]
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Arethosemyfeet
Shipmate
# 17047
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
I hope the secret legal advice on revoking article 50 supports the idea that it can be done without further recourse to parliament.
What kind of banana monarchy is this?
The one that voted to give the PM power to invoke article 50. I just think it's going to be better for the country if as few people as possible take the hit when it has to be reversed. And ultimately it will have to be, as it's becoming clear there's no such thing as a good Brexit. If we get some constitutional reform and improved oversight of the PM in the long term as a result then so much the better.
Posts: 2933 | From: Hebrides | Registered: Apr 2012
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I really don't see how Brexit can be gone back on without unprecedented domestic upheaval.
If a bill passed in Parliament can be reversed without another bill being passed in Parliament, especially in the case of such far-reaching consequences, it strikes me one can do without the Parliament altogether, whilst also setting a precedent for disregarding any popular vote that proves too unpalatable.
The referendum may have been all sorts of unfair but disregarding the result makes things worse for democracy in my view.
Brexiteers may be a minority but they are an especially vocal one and include an extreme fringe that would probably take any reversal to the streets.
And even assuming this domestic upheaval was somehow contained, once again your aspiration seems to assume the EU will welcome back the prodigal with open arms. I just can't see this happening. Any agreement by the 27 to let the UK back in will be on far different terms, with joining the Euro probably topping the list.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Arethosemyfeet
Shipmate
# 17047
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Posted
It's not reversing the bill - the bill was enabling only. It gave power to the PM to make the decision. And the referendum itself was only ever advisory, and should never have been held in the first place (at least not in the form it was).
We're going to get major domestic upheaval anyway, when the shit hits the fan after we leave. The question is whether we still have a functional economy afterwards.
[ 18. October 2017, 09:21: Message edited by: Arethosemyfeet ]
Posts: 2933 | From: Hebrides | Registered: Apr 2012
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
On retirees: any British pensioner in Europe who voted to leave the EU is terminally stupid (and there were not negligible numbers of them). Whatever their legal status, I predict quite a lot of British pensioners are going to be headed back to Blighty in the next few years. I doubt most of them will get thrown out of the countries they’re living in. However, there is no reason why they would continue to be entitled to healthcare and social security benefits on the current terms once the UK is no longer subject to reciprocal EU arrangements. A lot of older British people in Spain may soon have to start shelling out for their own medical costs, and it’s going to be expensive.
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
The obvious solution is to go for EEA/EFTA, but the govt seem to have ruled that out, as it still sounds too EU-ish.
No deal would probably produce economic chaos - I think it would be better to cancel Brexit.
I suppose the govt are hoping for their frictionless trade with the EU, outside the EU. It sounds impossible. They are trapped.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
It's not reversing the bill - the bill was enabling only. It gave power to the PM to make the decision. And the referendum itself was only ever advisory, and should never have been held in the first place (at least not in the form it was).
A decision has been enabled by the passage of an Act of Parliament (and that decision basically enshrined Parliament's acceptance of the referendum result).
How can that reasonably be undone except by another Act of Parliament, or be seen as anything other than political suicide by whichever government passes it?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
The obvious solution is to go for EEA/EFTA, but the govt seem to have ruled that out, as it still sounds too EU-ish.
It's not that it "sounds too EU-ish", it's that it doesn't deliver on the issue of sovreignty aka "taking back control". This even more than all that money for the NHS is the big lie that was sold to the Leavers.
Now that it has been sold, I wish the hard Brexiteers would set about making the best of that bad job and assume responsibility for that "control" they've "taken back".
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Ronald Binge
Shipmate
# 9002
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Brexiteers may be a minority but they are an especially vocal one and include an extreme fringe that would probably take any reversal to the streets.
There are a lot of big-talking middle-aged people on the interweb. I'd be fascinated to see how the "Gammons" would get off their computers, let alone take to the streets.
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Older, bearded (but no wiser)
Posts: 477 | From: Brexit's frontline | Registered: Jan 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
It's not the internet denizens I'm concerned about, more the people behind racially-motivated attacks.
Reneging on Brexit would be fuel to the far-right's fire.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Arethosemyfeet
Shipmate
# 17047
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
How can that reasonably be undone except by another Act of Parliament, or be seen as anything other than political suicide by whichever government passes it?
It can be done however is legal. The ardent Brexiteers aren't going to give a shit about process if they don't get to destroy the country the way they want, and doing it via the PM rather than parliament means the number of people forced to commit political suicide in order to achieve it can be minimised. I'd rather see it reversed in parliament with grand speeches given about why it's in the national interest, preferably accompanied by Boris, Gove, Davies and Fox in the pillory being pelted with rotten fruit but I'll settle for it happening legally in some fashion.
Posts: 2933 | From: Hebrides | Registered: Apr 2012
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
On retirees: any British pensioner in Europe who voted to leave the EU is terminally stupid (and there were not negligible numbers of them). Whatever their legal status, I predict quite a lot of British pensioners are going to be headed back to Blighty in the next few years. I doubt most of them will get thrown out of the countries they’re living in. However, there is no reason why they would continue to be entitled to healthcare and social security benefits on the current terms once the UK is no longer subject to reciprocal EU arrangements. A lot of older British people in Spain may soon have to start shelling out for their own medical costs, and it’s going to be expensive.
As I understand it, the NHS pays (all/some of) the costs of medical care for Brits abroad. Unless some kind of equivalent is found, then that's going to be a cost to the EU country, which presumably they're going to want to pass back to the British retiree.
Also, obviously, the pound has fallen against the Euro - and Spanish property that the expats own is falling in value.
And I think I'm correct in saying that if UK pensioners are outside of the EU they do not get the ongoing inflationary state pension increases that they would get at home (and by extension if they're in an EU country).
So they're going to have (a) less money (b) any UK funds they have will be worth less in the Eurozone (c) they're probably going to have to pay more for healthcare (d) they're probably going to be increasingly less welcome because of all these things.
I don't think any of the EU countries is going to have to throw many/any British OAPs out, they're increasingly going to leave because of other factors.
[ 18. October 2017, 10:03: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
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arse
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Reneging on Brexit would be fuel to the far-right's fire.
Let's start this response with this link from a Brexiter - in fact the person who wrote the 'Flexcit' paper that Brexiters were so found of quoting prior to the referendum:
http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html
Okay - so he goes all millenarian, but the fact is that that brand of weaponised viciousness ('it'll be good for those young people to have a period of hardship, what with their lattes and stuff'), seems to animate a lot of the more extreme pro-Brexit sentiment.
Imagine a 10th of that near apocalyptic rendering comes to pass - what does the extreme right do? Will they shut up? No. They'll double down and insist on an ever more extreme set of measures.
That kind of economic hardship will just metastasize them as a movement.
So the question is - do you want to take them on now, or later?
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
The obvious solution is to go for EEA/EFTA, but the govt seem to have ruled that out, as it still sounds too EU-ish.
It's not that it "sounds too EU-ish", it's that it doesn't deliver on the issue of sovreignty aka "taking back control". This even more than all that money for the NHS is the big lie that was sold to the Leavers.
Now that it has been sold, I wish the hard Brexiteers would set about making the best of that bad job and assume responsibility for that "control" they've "taken back".
But we don't have to accept the lie. That is really rolling over and saying that the Daily Mail/Express faction hold all the aces.
I don't see why we should just accept hard Brexit, when it wasn't on the ballot. Some of them want no deal, which would block trade, empty supermarket shelves, and impoverish more people.
In fact, some Leavers were touting the Norway solution before the vote.
I think the longer this impasse goes on, the more that there will be disillusionment with the whole thing. Probably some kind of Associate Membership will be a solution, but it all hinges on the details.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Chris:
quote:
Imagine a 10th of that near apocalyptic rendering comes to pass - what does the extreme right do? Will they shut up? No. They'll double down and insist on an ever more extreme set of measures.
That kind of economic hardship will just metastasize them as a movement.
So the question is - do you want to take them on now, or later?
Britain seems to have a blind spot over this. On the one hand it mocks Trump but politically and socially acts like Trump and cheers on the far right in Europe. The rest of Europe looks on in fear and trembling. There appears a brazen attitude to diving headlong into the abyss, as if it might be funny and entertaining for a season. When people become this complacent and dismissive of democracy and actually begin to play games with it, if you add economic hardship on top the result will be far, far away from a laugh. I think the Tories should have a new campaign slogan: 'Things will only get worse'.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Reneging on Brexit would be fuel to the far-right's fire.
Let's start this response with this link from a Brexiter - in fact the person who wrote the 'Flexcit' paper that Brexiters were so found of quoting prior to the referendum:
http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html
Okay - so he goes all millenarian, but the fact is that that brand of weaponised viciousness ('it'll be good for those young people to have a period of hardship, what with their lattes and stuff'), seems to animate a lot of the more extreme pro-Brexit sentiment.
Imagine a 10th of that near apocalyptic rendering comes to pass - what does the extreme right do? Will they shut up? No. They'll double down and insist on an ever more extreme set of measures.
That kind of economic hardship will just metastasize them as a movement.
So the question is - do you want to take them on now, or later?
Although Pete North's father has been writing reams of stuff about how the UK side are cocking up the negotiations, because they are looking over their shoulder at the Ultras, that is, the right wing. Richard has been advocating EEA or some version of it, and seems to hate the Ultras.
Pretty nasty stuff though in your quote, a kind of épater la bourgeoisie, with knobs on, where the bourgeoisie are seen as anyone who drinks latte and reads the Guardian. And of course, utter contempt for Labour. Class war, anyone?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Chris:
quote:
Imagine a 10th of that near apocalyptic rendering comes to pass - what does the extreme right do? Will they shut up? No. They'll double down and insist on an ever more extreme set of measures.
That kind of economic hardship will just metastasize them as a movement.
So the question is - do you want to take them on now, or later?
Britain seems to have a blind spot over this. On the one hand it mocks Trump but politically and socially acts like Trump and cheers on the far right in Europe. The rest of Europe looks on in fear and trembling. There appears a brazen attitude to diving headlong into the abyss, as if it might be funny and entertaining for a season. When people become this complacent and dismissive of democracy and actually begin to play games with it, if you add economic hardship on top the result will be far, far away from a laugh. I think the Tories should have a new campaign slogan: 'Things will only get worse'.
I think the Ultras see this as a chance to dump the welfare state, and produce a low tax, low wage economy, utterly deregulated. Of course, they have Brexit as a useful fig-leaf. I'm not sure if the political establishment has the balls to unmask them.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Who's we? Hard Brexit is absolutely politically inevitable. Europe will shut the door and change the locks on schedule and our crap will be out on the street and the bailiffs will be upon us wherever we go. The repo man will take the car.
So what? There won't be any Bulgarians picking OUR turnips. Victory.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I think the Tories should have a new campaign slogan: 'Things will only get worse'.
Not only inevitable; deliberate.
Sigh.
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arse
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Tell you what, I have 20 kilos of turnips in storage, don't ask how I got them. I am willing to auction them, they make excellent soup, and of course, useful at Halloween. Any bids?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Britain seems to have a blind spot over this. On the one hand it mocks Trump but politically and socially acts like Trump and cheers on the far right in Europe. The rest of Europe looks on in fear and trembling. There appears a brazen attitude to diving headlong into the abyss, as if it might be funny and entertaining for a season.
At some point the refusal to take anything seriously, and the ability to turn everything into a joke becomes a serious liability in coping with reality.
And yes, I think there is a blasé attitude exposed by the sentiments behind wording like:
"Basically it will wipe out the cosseted lower middle class and remind them that they are just as dispensable as the rest of us. "
"I expect to see a cultural revolution where young people actually start doing surprising and reckless things again rather than becoming tedious hipsters drinking energy drinks in pop-up cereal bar book shops or whatever it is they do these days"
"I have always primarily thought Brexit would be a reboot on British politics and culture. In a lot of ways it will bring back much of what is missing"
They are the kind of thing that only someone who doesn't really believe they are part of 'the rest of us' could say.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
I'd bid, but by the time you get organised with the Post Office I will probably have to pay excessive import duties to get them into Europe, so I'll just buy here thanks.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
quote:
I expect to see a cultural revolution where young people actually start doing surprising and reckless things again
I actually expect this too, to be honest, but I think it will be heavily flavoured with xenophobia and racism. You can't move towards isolationism and then declare yourself all welcoming and nice to strangers. If there is an over-riding British culture then it would surely be a profoundly Christian one, but recognising you are in fact your brothers keeper and that you should love your neighbour as yourself seems to be two of the elements that have been fecked out into the ditch fairly promptly. It doesn't really bode well for what will take the cultural space left behind. I also find it odd that the lower middle class seem to be the target. It seems to me that they already have the squeeze on them in the UK economy and are rapidly moving down the scale towards poverty. Brexit will surely hasten that. It seems even more odd to leave out the big business bods and their ridiculous bonuses and the wealthy elite and the titled and monied. I wonder if the blogger has certain connections.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
It seems even more odd to leave out the big business bods and their ridiculous bonuses and the wealthy elite and the titled and monied. I wonder if the blogger has certain connections.
Yes, there is a very "The rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate" feel to all of it.
But that's a fairly common thread that runs throughout the extreme Brexit element (Rees Mogg, Redwood, Johnson etc) none of whom are exactly likely to be facing penury.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Tell you what, I have 20 kilos of turnips in storage, don't ask how I got them. I am willing to auction them, they make excellent soup, and of course, useful at Halloween. Any bids?
You got them after they had been pulled out of the ground by East Europeans.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Reneging on Brexit would be fuel to the far-right's fire.
Let's start this response with this link from a Brexiter - in fact the person who wrote the 'Flexcit' paper that Brexiters were so found of quoting prior to the referendum:
http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html
Okay - so he goes all millenarian, but the fact is that that brand of weaponised viciousness ('it'll be good for those young people to have a period of hardship, what with their lattes and stuff'), seems to animate a lot of the more extreme pro-Brexit sentiment.
Imagine a 10th of that near apocalyptic rendering comes to pass - what does the extreme right do? Will they shut up? No. They'll double down and insist on an ever more extreme set of measures.
That kind of economic hardship will just metastasize them as a movement.
So the question is - do you want to take them on now, or later?
May as well start now ![[Smile]](smile.gif) I used some quotes from that blog post to point out to my MP that no one voted for that particular shit-show so she might want to vote for the various amendments designed to prevent it. Unless she's looking for the Tories to go the way of the Liberals.* Haven't had a reply yet though.
Tubbs
* This might happen anyway if the reports about the size and age of Tory party membership and the voting intentions of most people under 50 are true.
[ 18. October 2017, 11:50: Message edited by: Tubbs ]
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I predict that the current turmoil in Europe and beyond will lead to the emergence of something resembling the city states of yore. Cities worldwide are increasingly finding themselves at odds with domestic policies and developing increasing clout.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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