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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Luigi:
quote:
Why would they give a 'cake and eat it deal' to the UK and not to the 3 largest economies in the world?
Because the problem child of the EU for the last three decades is clearly more important than the other 27 members and has kept the whole thing afloat and it will all collapse when the UK leaves. That's the thinking. Looks idiotic when you put it in black and white.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Luigi
Shipmate
# 4031
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Luigi:
quote:
Why would they give a 'cake and eat it deal' to the UK and not to the 3 largest economies in the world?
Because the problem child of the EU for the last three decades is clearly more important than the other 27 members and has kept the whole thing afloat and it will all collapse when the UK leaves. That's the thinking. Looks idiotic when you put it in black and white.
It does, doesn't it!
Posts: 752 | Registered: Feb 2003
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
It looks really daft in black and white. I don't think it looks any better in red, white and blue. Even rose-tinted it's pretty bonkers.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Simon Stevens, head of the NHS in England asks a rhetorical question.
I expect he'll be asked to resign. Watch this space.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Very comical incident really, when the so-called 'impact assessments' on Brexit, are described as not being in the form that one might expect.
They are supposed to be 58 in number, but it looks as if they don't actually exist. Well, maybe there are 58 fag packets somewhere in the Brexit bureaucracy. Or maybe they are writing them now.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Very comical incident really, when the so-called 'impact assessments' on Brexit, are described as not being in the form that one might expect.
They are supposed to be 58 in number, but it looks as if they don't actually exist. Well, maybe there are 58 fag packets somewhere in the Brexit bureaucracy. Or maybe they are writing them now.
They're still working on the first two: one marked "Arse" and the other "Elbow".
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
I think their first impact study was on the brewing industry, and required a visit with some drinks ... they're still struggling to organise it.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Very comical incident really, when the so-called 'impact assessments' on Brexit, are described as not being in the form that one might expect.
On the contrary, they are exactly as the Remain campaigners suggested. Not convincingly enough though, which says nothing complementary about the British.
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
This government now reminds me of John Major's around 1994 - stumbling along with no well-defined aims, lurching from crisis to fiasco, desperate to be put out of its misery. If May can pull them out of the dumper, she must possess qualities of leadership that she hasn't shown so far, to put it mildly.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
This government now reminds me of John Major's around 1994 - stumbling along with no well-defined aims, lurching from crisis to fiasco, desperate to be put out of its misery. If May can pull them out of the dumper, she must possess qualities of leadership that she hasn't shown so far, to put it mildly.
I thought very much the same recently. The irony of course is that apart from "Back To Basics" (which Major himself said the other day had got hijacked), what really screwed Major with his small majority was Eurosceptic Tories agitating at a time when he had a small majority.
Fast forward to 2015 and Cameron has a similar sized majority, and the referendum is clearly actually a referendum on the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservatives. If he wins he shuts them up, but oops, he lost and now we are in a mess.
If only he'd had the courage to do what Major did and resign and stand again when it got rough. It was hard to see at the time that anyone would ever make Major look good. But now May carried on with Cameron's taste for gambling and she and Cameron both make Major look like one of the best we've had...
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
It was hard to see at the time that anyone would ever make Major look good. But now May carried on with Cameron's taste for gambling and she and Cameron both make Major look like one of the best we've had...
Possibly one for the unpopular opinions thread, but I've always rated John Major. There was a general level of competence there (almost entirely lacking now) which meant the whole thing didn't fall apart in the 1990s. He'd have soared with a supportive party.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
that's not party political btw - I've often thought Brown would have done better had he not become PM right at the fag end when everyone was losing patience and much of the New Labour project had been carried out.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
It was Brown's misfortune that the banking crisis happened on his watch. He bears some responsibility for that, but it was mostly caused by lax U.S. regulation over which he had no control.
Certainly Major's "back me or sack me" gambit was political genius compared to Cameron's inept attempt at re-negotiation followed by disastrous referendum campaign.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
It was Brown's misfortune that the banking crisis happened on his watch. He bears some responsibility for that, but it was mostly caused by lax U.S. regulation over which he had no control.
True - I'd argue the crash was the final kiss of death on an inevitability though. The British public were in one of their "time for a change" moods and just didn't take to him as PM (after he'd spent most of the preceding decade polling as the most popular politician in the Labour party with the public).
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
FWIW I would agree that Major wasn't a total disaster - he just ended up looking done in by everything at the end. He did do some good stuff, particularly for Northern Ireland where he and Albert Reynolds got on well. Blair might have bagged the glory for that in the end, but Major did a lot before then.
It all certainly looks like a golden age compared to today...
ETA - oh, and he did manage to get stuck into people in the street on his soap box - something we haven't really seen from a party leader again until Corbyn.
[ 09. November 2017, 11:40: Message edited by: lowlands_boy ]
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Stejjie
Shipmate
# 13941
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
that's not party political btw - I've often thought Brown would have done better had he not become PM right at the fag end when everyone was losing patience and much of the New Labour project had been carried out.
The cynical part of me can't help wondering if, given the dysfunctional Blair-Brown relationship, that's why Blair left it so long to stand down in favour of Brown - because he knew the project was running out of steam and he'd rather Brown, not him, had to deal with that.
But I'm sure that couldn't possibly be the case...
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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist
Posts: 1117 | From: Urmston, Manchester, UK | Registered: Jul 2008
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
So the date is set, and so even is the hour...
23:00 GMT on Friday 29 March 2019.
Matthew 24:36...
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I thought I should update my signature line....
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
Bertie Ahern spells it out.
I heard the interview and it gives a clear explanation of why the UK position over the Northern Ireland border is incoherent. Avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Eire is only possible by three means.
1. The Brexit deal requires the UK to agree to the single market and customs union position.
OR
2. The UK agrees to establish a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
OR
3. Ireland is reunified and the reunified country remains in the EU.
The DUP, which is propping up the UK government, is opposed to all three options, but so far as I am aware has no coherent alternative to a hard border with Eire.
The Tories have set their face against option 1 as a negotiated outcome, and cannot accept either option 2 or option 3 for constitutional and political reasons.
The 'soft border' option is now seen as technically unworkable, creating a soft option for uncontrolled movement of goods both ways.
As Bertie Ahern puts it, Brexit has created a hell of a mess for the island of Ireland.
I'm well aware of the historical ingenuity of EU officials in coming up with fudges to square circles. But over the Northern Ireland border, I think they are right to argue that the UK position is incoherent and untenable. That doesn't strike me as politics or negotiating tactics. If the UK government wants to withdraw from the single market and the customs union, then Northern Ireland must have a hard border with the south. And that border is notoriously difficult to police and maintain.
And negotiating a single market customs union deal under Brexit will bring down the UK government.
Can any of my Shipmates see any way out of this for the UK government? A hard Brexit seems also to mean a hard Northern Ireland border.
[ 11. November 2017, 06:38: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I can imagine an EU fudge along the lines of NI becoming a "Special Administrative Region" of the UK à la Hong Kong.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
{Across the Pond caveat.}
Maybe let N. Ireland go, if the majority so votes?
Weird question: Should the ethnic Irish in NI have a weighted vote, compared to the English Irish? (Just popped into my head.)
The article, linked a couple of posts up, included:
quote:
“The argument today is the EU have come to the conclusion that after 12 months of looking at this that they believe to stay in the Single Market and to stay in the Customs Union is the only way you can avoid a border.
“Of course, the difficulty for that is the British Government don’t agree with that, the DUP don’t agree with that and the Irish Government do.”
How accurate do Irish and UK Shipmates think that is?
Thx.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
The DUP would accept reunification of Ireland over their dead bodies (hopefully not literally).
AIUI, the Tory government does not have a majority without the DUP. Reunification of Ireland is a lot less likely than the government collapsing and a soft Brexit being back on the table, and even that doesn't look likely.
NI really does have more to lose even than the rest of the UK over Brexit and nobody much seems to care.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Ok. If Ireland and NI decided to reunite, would the British/UK gov't send in the military to stop it?
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I don't see any route by which "they" could "decide" that unilaterally by peaceful means any more than I could see Texas simply deciding to leave the Union and absorb itself into Mexico.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Bertie Ahern spells it out.
For completeness you do have
4. The EU agrees to establish a hard border between Eire and the rest of the UK. Eire agrees to put up with whatever the UK dumps/takes on it.
5. All 27 countries of the EU follow the UK (basically the mirror image of 1, except without the checks and balances)
Both of these have democratic, constitutional, health, safety, economic issues.
I suspect a happy Brexit deal, could in theory use elements of these (it's a sea crossing to 26 of the countries anyway, if it were Normandy it would be a different issue). You'd have to ensure that the regulations in and border to NI was close enough to not damage Eire. Eire would need compensation for the trade damages of any extra checks. So it would need the UK to move on 1&2. But if it could be shown that there were at most 10,000 bottles of beer without measurements in ml, but otherwise identical lose in Europe. Then it's probably not the end of the world.
On the other hand if we went back to our form of Opiate trafficking, that would be.
[ 11. November 2017, 07:35: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Eutychus--
Well, Texas talking about secession is a long-running thing, but as its own republic. I doubt Mexico wants it, if only because of all the attendant hassle.
TBH, when Texas does something that many of the rest of us find absurd or wrong, we're in favor of its secession (at least half-seriously). We'd keep Austin and Marfa, and anyone else that wants to stay.
[ 11. November 2017, 07:40: Message edited by: Golden Key ]
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
4. The EU agrees to establish a hard border between Eire and the rest of the UK.
I'm rather thrilled (in a morbid way) by the cold-war feel of a wall being built to keep the UK out of the EU, rather than the EU out of the UK. I can only imagine the Daily Wail headlines... quote:
5. All 27 countries of the EU follow the UK
I don't understand this option. quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Well, Texas talking about secession is a long-running thing
I chose Texas in my illustration precisely because I know it has occasional aspirations to secede and I think (hazily) that there are some issues about which parts might have once been Mexico or vice versa. quote:
TBH, when Texas does something that many of the rest of us find absurd or wrong, we're in favor of its secession (at least half-seriously). We'd keep Austin and Marfa, and anyone else that wants to stay.
This pretty much echoes the popular thinking behind Brexit*, I would say.
Brits finding the EU allegedly does something absurd (banana sizes) or wrong (takes their money, hands down pro-terrorist rulings†) makes them into Brexiteers, waving away the problems with losing the nice bits or borders. They were only half-serious, but a couple of political opportunists led by Cameron and Farage conned them into believing their half-serious dream could come true, and now it has, only it's a nightmare.
=
*And Catalonian independence
†In the mistaken belief that the ECHR has something to do with the EU (admittedly, the ECHR is literally across the road from the European Parliament in Strasbourg, but they are wholly separate institutions)
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Bertie Ahern spells it out.
For completeness you do have
For further completeness.
6. Northern Ireland becomes an independent nation state within the EU, or at least the single market and customs union.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
5. All 27 countries of the EU follow the UK
I don't understand this option.
I read that as the end of the EU. No single market, no customs union. Then the UK and Ireland are free to negotiate an open border deal between themselves.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
The article, linked a couple of posts up, included:
quote:
“The argument today is the EU have come to the conclusion that after 12 months of looking at this that they believe to stay in the Single Market and to stay in the Customs Union is the only way you can avoid a border.
“Of course, the difficulty for that is the British Government don’t agree with that, the DUP don’t agree with that and the Irish Government do.”
How accurate do Irish and UK Shipmates think that is?
I think that's basically accurate. Except I'd add that the British Government can't seem to agree to what colour the sky is, let alone agree on any particular policy position.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Weird question: Should the ethnic Irish in NI have a weighted vote, compared to the English Irish? (Just popped into my head.)
Only if you wanted to screw up the Good Friday Agreement.
Also Northern Irish Protestants aren't English. In origin they are mostly Scottish but they've been there long enough - as long as white people in America - to develop their own culture.
quote:
Ok. If Ireland and NI decided to reunite, would the British/UK gov't send in the military to stop it?
The Good Friday Agreement binds the UK government to neutrality as far as Irish reunification is concerned. That is, if the people of Northern Ireland seem likely to support reunification, the British government is bound to support this as well.
I am not sure by what mechanism the people of Northern Ireland are supposed to express their desire for reunification, but I assume it would start with electing a republican majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly - which doesn't seem likely within the next few years.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
6. Northern Ireland becomes an independent nation state within the EU, or at least the single market and customs union.
I don't think this is possible in one go.
If the EU's position on Scotland is anything to go by, NI would have to first become an independent nation state (how?) and then apply to join the EU.
Even if NI was independent now and started the application process tomorrow, there's no way it would be able to enter new membership by March 2019.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Richardus:
quote:
I am not sure by what mechanism the people of Northern Ireland are supposed to express their desire for reunification
It would be by referendum. SF are making noises about it but I don't think they are serious yet. I think they know to wait and bide their time. The DUP have taken a huge risk, banking on a hard Brexit to further shackle NI to the UK in the hope of a hard border. I know many of you will cite that the DUP don't want a hard border. Don't be fooled; it is entirely in their interests to have one. For many years they have been quietly chipping away at the GFA. This is just another nail in its coffin for them; albeit a big nail.
The real question comes later - after Brexit is rolled out fully. In the midst of political crisis, economic hardship, isolationism and businesses wanting to be int he EU zone for the sake of trade, NI may become something of a wasteland. It has only ever been buoyant on the basis of outside investment and the UK consistently propping it up. There are some signs that people who would not have contemplated a united Ireland, are now. If it doesn't descend into violence I'd say there's a significant chance a referendum on a united Ireland might actually pass. The question remains as to how Ireland would respond.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
6. Northern Ireland becomes an independent nation state within the EU, or at least the single market and customs union.
I don't think this is possible in one go.
It was another option to complete the list. I don't think it's any less possible than the other options. Which is basically to say that anything that doesn't include the UK as a whole remaining a full EU member or within the single market & customs union will result an unsolvable knot along the Irish border.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
It is remarkable - and deeply sad - that Britain has been the undoing of one of the flagship enterprises of peace in the world, so often held as an example of what might be possible elsewhere in seemingly intractable conflicts. It was never even mentioned in the campaign - not even once. But then I guess it was done under duress with pressure from the EU and the USA. Still; cutting your nose off to spite your face has sunk to a whole new level on this one. Right from the start I always said the real question of the referendum over Brexit was 'Am I my brother's keeper?' Britain has consistently responded during these dark days with a sharp 'F@&k off'.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
Indeed. The strong possibility of Brexit torpedoing the GFA should have been sufficient reason to vote against it, for anyone (other than a hardcore Ulster unionist) who thought about the issues for more than thirty seconds.
The DUP are laughing at us.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Richardus:
quote:
I am not sure by what mechanism the people of Northern Ireland are supposed to express their desire for reunification
It would be by referendum.
What would trigger a referendum though? If republicans got a majority in the Assembly the unionists would still have to be part of the executive, and so even if a Sinn Féin First Minister proposed a referendum, wouldn't the DUP just block it, given that they seem to think the use of the Irish language in court will bring society collapsing around their ears.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
5. All 27 countries of the EU follow the UK
I don't understand this option.
I read that as the end of the EU. No single market, no customs union. Then the UK and Ireland are free to negotiate an open border deal between themselves.
I meant it as the EU having to roll back and accept whatever Britain did, whatever we send to Ireland-Ireland takes, whatever Ireland sends to Germany, Germany takes. Technically there would still be a single market but with Britain having a dictatorial control of it, it wouldn't be the EU single market.
I didn't posit it as a good/fair/likely option* .
*By itself. In proportion to Britain, doing the reverse in a controlled fashion, it's different. Practically the ideal option would be if Britain, France, Germany, ... had proportionate say through some common supra-national democratic organization.
Posts: 1643 | Registered: May 2006
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Practically the ideal option would be if Britain, France, Germany, ... had proportionate say through some common supra-national democratic organization.
In other words, the best solution is for the UK to remain in the EU.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Ricardus:
quote:
What would trigger a referendum though? If republicans got a majority in the Assembly the unionists would still have to be part of the executive, and so even if a Sinn Féin First Minister proposed a referendum, wouldn't the DUP just block it, given that they seem to think the use of the Irish language in court will bring society collapsing around their ears.
The NI Ass. is made up of many parties, not just two. If you had a swing to a referendum it would likely come when SF form the majority of the chamber (which they aren;t far off doing currently) and would have support from the SDLP and some members of the Alliance party. You may even have some UUP members vote to allow it under democratic principal. The DUP would in all likelihood use the block of petition of concern, which would be a misuse of the act. However, they have precedence of misusing the act for aspects of the RHI scandal, marriage equality, the Irish language act etc, etc, etc. To use the petition of concern in the instance of a request for a referendum would be a very grave misuse of the act far more serious and threatening to the democratic process and effectively crippling the power of the assembly to function (a moot point in these days), so I'm not sure they would be legally enabled to pull that stunt, but the UK parliament could make any legal case regarding it spin out for years, effectively dampening any feeling of a move towards a united Ireland. That assumes the UK will actually want a dysfunctional failed province that is an ever increasing economic drain on its doorstep and part of its ongoing concern it what will likely be a very considerable crisis.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
I really don't understand the DUP policy at all whatsoever. Whilst it might be true that individual constituencies they won voted Leave, overall (I think) NI voted Remain.
And yet the DUP seem hell-bent on the hardest of hard Brexits. Surely they must know what the almost inevitable future for NI would look like. Surely they must realise what that would do to their future electoral prospects.
Madness.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
Just another example of Brexit face-spiting. Hard Brexit will sabotage the Good Friday Agreement and make any cross-border collaboration much more difficult. To the DUP that is well worth sending Ulster back to the 50's -
- the 1650's , that is.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
For completeness you do have
4. The EU agrees to establish a hard border between Eire and the rest of the UK. Eire agrees to put up with whatever the UK dumps/takes on it.
5. All 27 countries of the EU follow the UK (basically the mirror image of 1, except without the checks and balances)
For 'complete completeness' you also have the proposal from a number of different hardline Brexiters (including 'Lawyers for Britain'), that Ireland leaves the EU (the so called Irexit).
Which tells you all you need to know really. These people inhabit some kind of 18th/19th century fantasy land.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I know it's hard to come to terms with, but that ship sailed long ago.
Though, as we've been reminded again this week, Article 50 can be revoked. It would be politically difficult for the UK government to do so (possibly the understatement of the year), that doesn't mean the boat has sailed yet. Though the UKs legal position in the EU wouldn't be changed there would need to be a lot of work to rebuild political relations, and that would be a different position.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Thanks for all the responses to my questions. Wishing whatever's best in all the situations.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
as we've been reminded again this week, Article 50 can be revoked. It would be politically difficult for the UK government to do so (possibly the understatement of the year)
What UK government would do so? I can't see anybody close to power advocating that. It's fiendishly hard to know what Labour's position is, but Corbyn appears to be committed to leaving.
However doom-laden leaving appears, I really can't imagine an electable UK prime minister of any stripe standing up and saying "sorry guys, we've decided this was all a big mistake and we've changed our minds". And if it did happen, it would almost certainly plunge the country into an even deeper political crisis, Catalonia style, amid arguments over legality, legitimacy, etc.
Besides, once again you seem to be forgetting the other side of the negotiating table - you're assuming the EU-27 will take a similar view about the possibility of Article 50 being revoked. That possibility looks politically unworkable to me too.
The UK leaving the EU is certainly damaging to the latter, but sending a message (by allowing Article 50 to be revoked) that Member States can dither indefinitely about whether they have decided to leave or not strikes me as even more damaging. The EU-27 have taken the UK's decision as definitive pretty much since the referendum result.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
I wonder what on earth David Davies is actually saying in negotiations about this issue. I simply can't see a tenable negotiating position. No wonder the EU are talking about the need for greater coherence.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Though, as we've been reminded again this week, Article 50 can be revoked.
Well, Lord Kerr has said this (though he didn't make this clear when drafting it). But he's not really the arbiter on such matters really, is he? That's presumably the role of the European Court of Justice? (Though I can quite imagine that the ECJ would be very well disposed to such an argument.)
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I wonder what on earth David Davies is actually saying in negotiations about this issue. I simply can't see a tenable negotiating position. No wonder the EU are talking about the need for greater coherence.
I'm increasingly sure that his plan is to bat out time on the negotiation, then blame the EU for its failure and the resulting chaos.
I haven't heard a credible alternative plan, I'm not sure there could be one. Ever since the referendum we've been thrashing about in search of square circles and unicorns.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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