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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
So it should go out via the same route as existing payments to the EU.

That would be the sensible route, a set of annual payments similar to the current contributions to the EU for a few years post-Brexit. That would need no big effort to re-arrange budgets or the like. And, it doesn't shake the magic money tree too much.

But, as it's sensible the government will find some other way to do things and make it all so much harder than it needs to be.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
I do hope we pay this out of the correct bank account - that of the DfID - to properly reflect that our hard-earned pounds will be going to prop up those poor people in France, the Netherlands, etc, etc, etc.

Surely it should come out of the NHS budget. Then when we feed in however many multiples of £350 million it is the Leavers can say they kept their promise.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Eirenist
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It ain't gonna happen. The DUP have found a way of throwing a spanner into the works with one hand, and shooting themselves in the foot with the other.

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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Sioni Sais
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And now David Davis has thrown his spanner into the works in defence of his sometime subordinate, Damian Green, who is now Theresa May's #2.

All very messy. Not what the government nor Mr Plod needs at all.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
So, it looks like the cost of leaving is going to be £50 billion - unquantifiable because a fair proportion of it is for pensions for eurocrats.

I do hope we pay this out of the correct bank account - that of the DfID - to properly reflect that our hard-earned pounds will be going to prop up those poor people in France, the Netherlands, etc, etc, etc.

Hate to burst your bubble but Netherlands and France are net contributors to the EU budget. The main beneficiaries are Eastern European countries. And in fact we probably get at least as much benefit from their education and training spending when we import skilled workers from those countries. As for the suggestion that we deprive the poorest people in the world of help to pay for the Brexiteer's vanity exercise... [Mad]
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quetzalcoatl
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Many reports of acceptance of 'regulatory alignment' between NI and Ireland by the UK. If this is correct, this suggests that the UK team have blinked first.

It is being spun in many different ways, as half way to a united Ireland, and as half accepting the single market.

It's too early to say what it means, but you would think that the Ultras have to be appeased somehow. And the Scottish govt are bound to say, why not us too?

[ 04. December 2017, 12:45: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
I do hope we pay this out of the correct bank account - that of the DfID - to properly reflect that our hard-earned pounds will be going to prop up those poor people in France, the Netherlands, etc, etc, etc.

Some of the pensions it will be paying belong to UK citizens, including Farage.
Is Farage going, in a show of principle, to refuse to collect his EU pension? No, to nobody's surprise, he fully intends to collect it.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Many reports of acceptance of 'regulatory alignment' between NI and Ireland by the UK. If this is correct, this suggests that the UK team have blinked first.

It is being spun in many different ways, as half way to a united Ireland, and as half accepting the single market.

It's too early to say what it means, but you would think that the Ultras have to be appeased somehow. And the Scottish govt are bound to say, why not us too?

Simple answer for the Scots is "because you haven't got a land border with the EU"

Meanwhile, all of this could be back off the table if the DUP bring down the govt over it.

Which, with a poll at the weekend giving Labour an 8 point lead, gives them a couple of weeks to get off the fence, come up with a policy that the whole parliamentary Labour party can get behind and persuade the public to vote for, then look forward to their exciting opportunity to be the owners and implementers of Brexit....

[ 04. December 2017, 13:47: Message edited by: betjemaniac ]

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Many reports of acceptance of 'regulatory alignment' between NI and Ireland by the UK. If this is correct, this suggests that the UK team have blinked first.

I'd have said 'accepted reality' rather than 'blinked first'. 'Blinked first' suggests that they've given way out of failure of resolve when they needn't. As the UK negotiating position was in polite terms unrealistic and unworkable, it's in no way blameworthy to abandon it.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Many reports of acceptance of 'regulatory alignment' between NI and Ireland by the UK. If this is correct, this suggests that the UK team have blinked first.

I'd have said 'accepted reality' rather than 'blinked first'. 'Blinked first' suggests that they've given way out of failure of resolve when they needn't. As the UK negotiating position was in polite terms unrealistic and unworkable, it's in no way blameworthy to abandon it.
The knuckledraggers in the Tory party won't see it as anything other than a cowardly abandonment of principles.

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(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Eutychus
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Indeed. Not so fast there:
quote:
"Foster told Theresa May that she would not be able to support such a deal. It's been suggested too that there are 20 or so Conservative MPs who had serious misgivings about the compromises that were understood to be on the table."


[ 04. December 2017, 16:10: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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quetzalcoatl
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As you were, the deal is off. Reports that the DUP said not on your nelly, or whatever the Irish equivalent to a nelly is.

It's exciting, isn't it?

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Eutychus
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The way France Info put it this morning, the only way Theresa May can succeed in Brexit negotiations is if she commits political suicide for herself and her government. Which is of course immediately not a success.

[ 04. December 2017, 16:18: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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quetzalcoatl
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The solution is obvious: the Irish govt should set up a large regular standing order to the DUP. How much? Well, mumble mumble billions in £ or euros.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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fletcher christian

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# 13919

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M-o-t-h-e-r
f-u-c-k-e-r-s
A pox on their house. Isn't it incredible just how easy it is to be an architect of your own terrible demise.
I know I shouldn't be surprised that the Tories pet snake finally delivered it's poisonous bite, but good God Almighty, what in the name of fuck are they thinking?

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Staretz Silouan

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mr cheesy
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Can someone explain the DUP position to me? I don't understand - they seem to simultaneously want unrestricted cross-border trade with the republic and with the UK.

Surely it is obvious that there is only one way that they can have that: stay in the EU.

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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I'm also boggled by the apparent lack of preparation by the British team. Surely, some bright spark would have said, PM, you do realize that a soft Irish border might be opposed by one, the DUP, and two, some of our own Tory nutters? Maybe, somebody should have checked? And why didn't it occur to May herself? The inmates have taken over the asylum, actually, the inmates would probably do a better job.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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quetzalcoatl
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Ah, maybe I am being naive. A friend suggests that it's all been set up. But why? To show that they're working hard? Or to expose the DUP plus Ultras as wreckers?

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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Or, maybe it's as simple as the UK government and the Breshitters are clueless incompetents. They're running around making headless chickens look coordinated.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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fletcher christian

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# 13919

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How lonely sits the city that was once full of people!
How like a widow has she become,
she that was great among the nations!
She that was princess among the cities has become a vassal!

On the bright side, when all of this is done and you've become a by-word among the nations of Europe, when your democracy has eroded beyond repair and your people are restless in their satanic mills; at least then you will be able to sing Jerusalem with full conviction.

[ 04. December 2017, 19:03: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:

I know I shouldn't be surprised that the Tories pet snake finally delivered it's poisonous bite, but good God Almighty, what in the name of fuck are they thinking?

They are thinking that they don't want to put up walls between NI and the rest of the UK. That shouldn't be a surprising position for a Unionist, surely?
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fletcher christian

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Walls?

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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Some snake bites can be lethal.

Let's hope this one is.

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Mr Cheesy:
quote:

Can someone explain the DUP position to me?

It doesn't make sense, so if you are trying to look at it from an sensible economic and social point of view, you will be confused. Back on the 22nd June I posted this:
quote:

The DUP want a Carson-esque state that they imagine is what Britain is, once was and should be today. Of course, it was never really any of these things. They will do anything to cement the idea of the Union in the minds of the people and most especially their voters and they have a terrible paranoid fear of things like border polls.......

What they really want is a pro pan-Protestant state. I suspect they want nationalists to be considered second class citizens, if not in actual fact second class citizens. They live in a land littered with a strongly Celtic past, but have a desire to be 'British' in terms of how they see and understand it, which does not match up to what Britain is today, or perhaps what it ever was. Ian Paisley attempted to take the DUP in a different direction. He had spent much of his heyday in stirring up political fever and courting the UVF along with other equally unpleasant groups. He did appear to be genuinely ashamed and sorry towards the end of his career at having done this and did say on a number of occasions that he could now see how his actions and speeches did lead to the death of many entirely innocent people. For this turn-about he paid a deeply personal cost. He was deeply criticised by many in the DUP at the time, but being such a 'big' character he was able to keep them in line. Eventually he would even be expelled from the church he founded. Once he was out the way the fields were ripe for a new reaping and the current flotilla of DUP politicians don;t have the same moral qualms as Paisley turned out to have. Just look at how they deliberately incited violence only a few years ago with the flag protests......

Do not be fooled, the DUP want the complete destruction and dismantling of the GFA. They want direct rule as long as they hold power. They will aim for these two goals even if it means plunging NI into a complete social and economic crash (if there is no border deal EU money will not enter NI and much of the UK investment is also tied up in cross border projects, which will all likely cease). They are effectively holding court as if they were elected representatives of the people - they are not. The NI government had collapsed and the Tories brought them in to central government for their own means. I am amazed that people cannot see the danger of eroding democracy in this way. The DUP's recent past is sordid and rotten; it's power is propped up by paramilitary thuggery, intimidation, guns and the blood of the innocent and the not so innocent. This is the blunt reality for many in NI; living in fear no matter what community they sit in and being told who to vote for and when. This is who you have in government holding the reigns, directing the head of the horse. What a sorry, sorry day.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
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I find it interesting that Jeremy Hunt has raised the possibility that Brexit might not happen at all: Link.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I find it interesting that Jeremy Hunt has raised the possibility that Brexit might not happen at all

That "possibility" has been raised several times here but I have yet to see a realistic scenario for Brexit not to happen. Your link doesn't even mention Jeremy Hunt.

quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
They want direct rule as long as they hold power.

My grandfather, a protestant who farmed near Belfast and died in the 1980s, was of the opinion that ultimately there would be a reunited Ireland. Given the overwhelming Remain vote in NI, could this yet be the beginning of that?

quote:
if there is no border deal EU money will not enter NI and much of the UK investment is also tied up in cross border projects, which will all likely cease.
I've been wondering about this. Surely Scotland and Wales are also set to lose disproportionate amounts of money from ERDF? What if any guarantees do they get of receiving similar development funding once Brexit has happened?

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Euty:
quote:

My grandfather, a protestant who farmed near Belfast and died in the 1980s, was of the opinion that ultimately there would be a reunited Ireland. Given the overwhelming Remain vote in NI, could this yet be the beginning of that?

There is a very definite swing to that in NI currently. Hard to say just how large it is though and how much is just 'talk'. Oddly enough, the stunt the DUP have just pulled will almost certainly feed into that feeling even more, especially of a hard border looms on the horizon. The DUP are like the blind leading the blind, believing with all their heart (or perhaps imagination) that a hard border will strengthen and firm up ties to the Union. I believe it would have quite the opposite effect, especially if the hard line nationalists control themselves and keep terrorism out of it.

That, however, is the opinion of NI (however speculative) and truly does not matter a jot when the the Republic of Ireland has no appetite currently for such a thing. I really don't believe they would even countenance the possibility right now and I know many politicians here who would be radically opposed to such an idea. The problem is that it has been the argument used by pretty much all of the political parties in NI politics to instil fear even though the whole charade has been constructed for years on a myth.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Callan
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With hindsight, Mrs May should have announced that, on the one hand, she had to respect the mandate given by the referendum and, equally, bring a country divided by 51-48 together. So she was going to seek a mandate for this at a General Election. With the Labour Party in the middle of a leadership election she would have smashed it out of the park and with a mandate for soft Brexit, she would have marginalised the ultras.

But no, she had to go down the 'Citizens of Nowhere' route. Well, that worked out superbly.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
she would have smashed it out of the park and with a mandate for soft Brexit, she would have marginalised the ultras.

Which assumes she's the kind of person who had a strongly held and principled stand on relations with the EU generally, and was willing to put her political career on the line to hold to it

WRT the previous posts, the fact that the DUP funnelled money to the Leave campaign should have been an indication that they were going to act in exactly this manner ( https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay-peter-geoghegan/did-dups-controversial-brexit-donors-break-law-by-refu sing- )

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:

WRT the previous posts, the fact that the DUP funnelled money to the Leave campaign should have been an indication that they were going to act in exactly this manner ( https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay-peter-geoghegan/did-dups-controversial-brexit-donors-break-law-by-refu sing- )

Perhaps I'm mis-reading something. But, that link suggests that the DUP accepted money for their own Brexit campaign from a source that didn't comply with Electoral Commission rules, and that other organisation has been fined for that. The DUP were not, IIRC, part of the official Leave campaign, and were operating in parallel to the official campaign. And, they didn't pass any of that £435,000 to the Leave campaign.

Of course, there are ongoing official investigations about the spending of the official Leave campaign, with some of that spending potentially having exceeded campaign spending limits. But, that's not related to the DUP.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Callan
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Originally posted by Chris Stiles:

quote:
Which assumes she's the kind of person who had a strongly held and principled stand on relations with the EU generally, and was willing to put her political career on the line to hold to it
Oh, I agree it would have taken reserves of political courage that she doesn't possess. But it's hard to see how it would have gone worse for her had she gone down that road, as opposed to how things have gone for her given the choices she has subsequently made.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:


Of course, there are ongoing official investigations about the spending of the official Leave campaign, with some of that spending potentially having exceeded campaign spending limits. But, that's not related to the DUP.

Mmm. Well make of this whatever you like.

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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Still the question, why didn't May's team realize that they would be DUPed? I suppose Alan Cresswell's point is well made - they are stupid and incompetent. You would think that there would be a civil servant who might spot the traps. But there is a story that the DUP were told of the deal, and agreed to it, then panicked when they saw the Irish celebrations. If the taig are for it, we are agin.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I find it interesting that Jeremy Hunt has raised the possibility that Brexit might not happen at all

That "possibility" has been raised several times here but I have yet to see a realistic scenario for Brexit not to happen. Your link doesn't even mention Jeremy Hunt.
They've changed the article the link points to. How annoying.

Basically, Hunt was quoted as saying that unless Parliament rallies round May there might be "no Brexit". I know that possibility has been mentioned here a few times, but I think it's the first time a Conservative MP has suggested it could happen.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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It's so good to know that our beloved Government is 'back in control', isn't it?

Isn't it?

Yes?

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The DUP were not, IIRC, part of the official Leave campaign, and were operating in parallel to the official campaign. And, they didn't pass any of that £435,000 to the Leave campaign.

They did not. They did however run a campaign with very similar branding which included things such as a full page advert in the London Metro (at the estimated cost of around 200K).
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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Still the question, why didn't May's team realize that they would be DUPed? I suppose Alan Cresswell's point is well made - they are stupid and incompetent. You would think that there would be a civil servant who might spot the traps. But there is a story that the DUP were told of the deal, and agreed to it, then panicked when they saw the Irish celebrations. If the taig are for it, we are agin.

I've just read the take in the "i" which reckons that this might just be theatre - the DUP get to go back with whatever comes up next week saying it's better than it could have been, May gets to say ditto, and Juncker gets to say, as he did last night, that she's a "tough negotiator."

I'm not sure I believe it, but the i is relatively left of centre and anti-Brexit and their take seems to be that a lot of people are being played.... FWIW the Irish PM didn't exactly help in his press conference yesterday when he said that the two forms of words basically meant the same thing, when the UK govt had (apparently) spent the weekend persuading the DUP that they did, in fact, not...

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Enoch
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# 14322

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Or, maybe it's as simple as the UK government and the Breshitters are clueless incompetents. They're running around making headless chickens look coordinated.

I've avoided this thread. The subject makes me irate enough as it is.

But yes, it is as simple as that. They are. Indeed, that is being over-complimentary.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Basically, Hunt was quoted as saying that unless Parliament rallies round May there might be "no Brexit". I know that possibility has been mentioned here a few times, but I think it's the first time a Conservative MP has suggested it could happen.

[Paranoid] How can this possibly work? There's been no sign at all of rallying round. The government would collapse.

And as I keep saying, I see no way this can be rolled back. Project funding has gone, institutions are leaving the UK, companies are making investment decisions, and the clock is ticking. Wake up UK and do something about it.

[ 05. December 2017, 14:02: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:

I'm not sure I believe it

I am absolutely sure I don't believe it - the UK government (and the DUP) do not show the kind of competence necessary to run a successful conspiracy of this sort.
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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Nice comment by Sean O'Grady: 'some Prime Ministers have been destroyed by the Irish Question, and some by Europe. Theresa May is unique in fashioning from the two areas, a lethal cocktail.'

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:


Of course, there are ongoing official investigations about the spending of the official Leave campaign, with some of that spending potentially having exceeded campaign spending limits. But, that's not related to the DUP.

Mmm. Well make of this whatever you like.
A few weeks ago I saw reports of similar payments from the official Vote Leave campaign to other organisations (or even individuals) to support parallel (but supposedly disconnected) campaigns in a manner that appears to be side-stepping campaign funding rules. The DUP weren't named in the reports I'd seen, but if that £435,000 is Vote Leave money then it's another sum to add to the total that could be investigated.

I don't know what would happen if the Electoral Commission do find significant fraud in relation to campaign expenses. If it was an election they have the power to declare the result void and order a by-election, though a fine is more common. If the results of their enquiries reveal major issues about expenses, could they declare the referendum result void and insist on a re-run? That would certainly set a herd of cats among the pigeons.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:

The DUP weren't named in the reports I'd seen, but if that £435,000 is Vote Leave money then it's another sum to add to the total that could be investigated.

The 435K came from the "Constitutional Research Council". Other money came from Vote Leave, possibly including the 33K they spent with AggregrateIQ.

quote:

I don't know what would happen if the Electoral Commission do find significant fraud in relation to campaign expenses.

A possible answer is buried here:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay-peter-geoghegan/did-dups-controversial-brexit-donors-break-law-by-refu sing-

"However, openDemocracy can also reveal that £6,000 is the biggest ever fine charged to an unincorporated association."

At which point, fines just become a cost of doing business.

Over to Simon Wren-Lewis:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/if-we-treat-plutocracy-as-democracy.html

With the caveat that the UK is potentially a lot more vulnerable to this kind of influence, as politics runs leaner and the sums involved are piddling in comparison with the sums spent in the US.

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Meanwhile, MP Bernard Jenkin - who sits around the negotiating table currently - thinks Enda Kelly is the Prime Minister for Northern Ireland..............words fail...........brain cannot compute..........nothing I can write will make this appear any more stupid............

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Meanwhile, MP Bernard Jenkin - who sits around the negotiating table currently

I'm all for calling out errors, but in what way is Bernard Jenkin sitting around the negotiating table?

[ 06. December 2017, 08:17: Message edited by: betjemaniac ]

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And is it true? For if it is....

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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to be absolutely clear, Bernard Jenkin is a hard-Brexit loon who has been calling for Britain to walk away from negotiations since at least the beginning of October.

He's not a negotiator.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Well that's a relief that he's only an MP then.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Well that's a relief that he's only an MP then.

Even idiots deserve representation. I seem to remember the then Irish PM Brian Cowen gave an excellent interview 2-3 years ago to Morning Ireland (Jay Leno subsequently called him a "drunken moron") - and he got a lot further than Jenkin ever has...

To be clear I think Jenkin is a lunatic, whose interventions are unhelpful - but then I also recognise that's one of the reasons the press give him a platform in the first place. Irish citizens, on the other hand, might lack that context.

I also believe that the UK doesn't have the monopoly on such people.

[ 06. December 2017, 08:37: Message edited by: betjemaniac ]

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And is it true? For if it is....

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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2010 actually - that's a while earlier than I remembered. Who knows where the time goes.....?

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Well that's a relief that he's only an MP then.

Even idiots deserve representation.
But, there's no reason they need to be represented by idiots.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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