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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Aeroplane is big machine in sky, goes roar roar, and mummy and daddy and me and teddy go to smelly places. But then roar roar and mummy and daddy and me and teddy come home to nice home, not smelly.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
At first glance, they provide overviews of the current state of play, not impact assessments or suggestions for moving forward. It would have been nice to have these before the referendum.

I've read through a few of them; if I was presented with them in any professional capacity, I'd assume that their jejune quality was intended to hide a much more serious set of issues. Consider:

"Most firms have headquarters based in London, but banks and banking services are found all over the UK, largely in proportion to population"

"In coastal communities fishing brings employment and economic activity"

"The fleet is very diverse, with considerable variety in the size of vessels, the fish species they catch and their routes to market. The number of businesses does not necessarily equate to the number of vessels; for example, one business may own multiple vessels and some fishing businesses may operate with very few staff."

Is the kind of waffle I expect when someone is desperately trying to fill out space.

I can only assume that either:

- these are the original reports, were put together in a pro-forma manner and are generally representative of the level of thought put into such things at DxEU.
- there were no original reports, and these were put together to cover for Davis' gaffe.
- the original reports were far too damning to be released, so these were written to release after Davis was forced to do so.

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quetzalcoatl
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Those extracts sound like A-level essays. Maybe they are.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Those extracts sound like A-level essays. Maybe they are.

They look like Year 10 essays to me. Not very good ones either. They would fail A level by a distance.

(and here's one for you: a large part of the shellfish catch in the South-west of England is bought by the French then shipped across the channel).

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Those extracts sound like A-level essays. Maybe they are.

They look like Year 10 essays to me. Not very good ones either. They would fail A level by a distance.

(and here's one for you: a large part of the shellfish catch in the South-west of England is bought by the French then shipped across the channel).

Indeed.

I wasn't expecting clear evidence of Davis' incompetence but I was thinking there would be some meaningful data in here that would help to build a proper picture.

As you say the level of these is incredible - in the most literal sense of the word.

HOW, HOW, how is this not front page news? This is astounding incompetence. From a government that we know is incompetent, this is still surprising...

But the S*n front page (and a group on FB that I look at to see what Leave are saying) focuses on passport colour...

What a sorry, sorry, mess...

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Jane R
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alienfromzog:
quote:
HOW, HOW, how is this not front page news? This is astounding incompetence. From a government that we know is incompetent, this is still surprising...

But the S*n front page (and a group on FB that I look at to see what Leave are saying) focuses on passport colour...

They do have competence in one area: misdirection. Of course, it does help if the gutter press are willing to cooperate with you. Making an elephant disappear is a lot easier if you have a stooge in the audience yelling 'Look over there!' when you want everyone's attention directed elsewhere.
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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
alienfromzog:
quote:
HOW, HOW, how is this not front page news? This is astounding incompetence. From a government that we know is incompetent, this is still surprising...

But the S*n front page (and a group on FB that I look at to see what Leave are saying) focuses on passport colour...

They do have competence in one area: misdirection. Of course, it does help if the gutter press are willing to cooperate with you. Making an elephant disappear is a lot easier if you have a stooge in the audience yelling 'Look over there!' when you want everyone's attention directed elsewhere.
Yep, I know. [Disappointed]

But, [Mad] seriously? [Mad]

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Stejjie
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This is becoming the Brexit that no-one wants, isn't it? I mean, how can anyone - Brexiter or Remainer - claim that this what's unfolding before us is what they'd hoped for when they voted or campaigned in the referendum?

It's not the patriotic, quick exit burning all our bridges that the hard-core Brexiters wanted;
It's not a careful, well-thought out, methodical process aimed at getting the best deal for all - one that might have assauged the fears of at least some Remainers;
And obviously it's not Remaining.

It's just a mess, a huge, incompetent, unsatisfactory mess that surely nobody can be satisfied with. It was probably always going to be that way, TBH, but the stupid, blinkered, useless, self-satisfied, arrogant misguided* way the British have approached this has all but guaranteed that the end result will be a terrible patch-up job that'll probably fall apart within months. And the latest debacle with the sector "analysis" just makes that all the more clear.

* Have I missed anything out?

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
alienfromzog:
quote:
HOW, HOW, how is this not front page news? This is astounding incompetence. From a government that we know is incompetent, this is still surprising...

But the S*n front page (and a group on FB that I look at to see what Leave are saying) focuses on passport colour...

They do have competence in one area: misdirection. Of course, it does help if the gutter press are willing to cooperate with you. Making an elephant disappear is a lot easier if you have a stooge in the audience yelling 'Look over there!' when you want everyone's attention directed elsewhere.
They have competence in another related area, one we see all to often in organised religion namely self deception. They have fooled themselves (deliberately or not I neither know nor care) but having done it, it becomes a damn sight easier to deceive others.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Augustine the Aleut
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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I'll be happy to drift into a "Brexit by name alone" which doesn't seem so unlikely now.

I take it from this that you accept a "Brexit" in which the UK accepts the four freedoms, is under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, pays into the EU budget, accepts all regulations emanating from Brussels and is unable to have an independent trade policy, but without having any representation in the decision making bodies of the EU? Whatever happened to no taxation without representation?
While agreeing that Brexit might well leave the UK with all of the characteristics of membership without any of the political participation, I would note that "No taxation without representation":
1) was never true, as in UK history, most, then many, were never represented (unless you hold with the notion that the people of counties and boroughs were represented in Parliament even when they as individuals had no franchise), although much taxed,
2) nor was it ever true in US history as many of those taxed were never represented (unless you hold with the notion that the people of states were represented even when they did not have the franchise), although taxed. Even now, considerable numbers-- some say about 6 million- of the disenfranchised continue to pay taxes, and in any case
3) was more a slogan for those 18th century colonists seeking separation from Britain (Amerexiteers??) than a serious constitutional option.

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Jay-Emm
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Hmm having had to face the fact that the bit I saw in the independent wasn't satire. I had managed to get my expectation levels too low for the Consumer Goods one.
Were I told it were from 1/7/16 I'd probably be fairly happy with it.

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L'organist
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posted by alienfromzog
quote:
I wasn't expecting clear evidence of Davis' incompetence but I was thinking there would be some meaningful data in here that would help to build a proper picture.

As you say the level of these is incredible - in the most literal sense of the word.

Don't rush to blame Mr Davis.

The report on this in The Times makes it very clear - if it weren't to anyone who knows how government departments work - that these papers (I use that term in the loosest sense) were produced by our magnificent civil service. Mr Davis, or any other minister, can protest all he likes but the papers that ministers are given on whatever subject they need to be briefed may nominally be produced at the behest of the minister or secretary of state but the reality is that they are in fact produced according to a briefing that comes, in the final analysis, from the permanent secretary for the department.

In the case of Brexit, that will have come from the Major Project Authority which (to quote the civil service website
quote:
The Major Projects Authority (MPA) works with HM Treasury and other government departments to provide independent assurance on major projects. It also supports colleagues across departments to build skills and improve the way we manage and deliver projects. The MPA is part of the Efficiency and Reform Group in the Cabinet Office.

Major projects are defined as those which:[LIST][*]require spending over and above departmental expenditure limits[*]require primary legislation[*]are innovative or contentious

There is much, much more on the MPA on the civil service website but the bottom line is it comes down to our wonderful public servants to provide information on this type of thing - they themselves claim it as an area where they have the expertise above and beyond that of the other departments.

Now, it might be argued that in the case of these risible bits of course-work Mr Davis should have buckled down and done it all himself but that shouldn't be the case.

There may be another discussion here about whether or not the woeful papers have been signed-off as they are as part of some foot-dragging exercise (unofficial of course) by individual civil servants intent on pursuing their own political agenda - although how it might be that this happened when they will have passed through several layers of ever more senior administrators before reaching Mr Davis is a mystery?

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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Don't rush to blame Mr Davis.

I'm sorry, but that doesn't wash. I am aware of how the government works, although not the fine detail. However, the point is that ministers remain accountable for their departments. That's how democracy works. And if this is what was put across his desk, then he's HAS to send the mandarins away to do better. As hinted above, a pre-GCSE student would be sent away to do better if handing this in.

So there are a few possibilities - either these were produced overnight to cover Mr Davis' gaffe the other day or these, he has been sitting on for a while. Either way, he clearly is not leading the department at all.

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

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Alan Cresswell

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You are supposing that Mr Davis would have read them at all. I've heard from people who have had the privilege* of being at meetings with him that he will read the briefing notes circulated weeks in advance of the meeting during the meeting. Which is both lazy and disrespectful of the others who have spent the time preparing to do serious business at the meeting.

 

* if that's the appropriate word.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Barnabas62
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That's the general view. He's basically useless because he's basically lazy.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
You are supposing that Mr Davis would have read them at all. I've heard from people who have had the privilege* of being at meetings with him that he will read the briefing notes circulated weeks in advance of the meeting during the meeting. Which is both lazy and disrespectful of the others who have spent the time preparing to do serious business at the meeting.

 

* if that's the appropriate word.

Indeed? [Disappointed]

Well, that confirms the point that he is responsible for this rubbish.

He should have resigned two weeks ago when it became clear that either he was lying to the committee or that he lied to parliament. Now he should resign on the grounds of incompetence.

But given that on that basis, there wouldn't be much of a cabinet left, I won't hold my breath...

AFZ

P.S. As an interesting aside, I'm no fan of Lord Mandelson but the departments he worked in held him is very high regard... I think that an interesting contrast...

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Eutychus
From the edge
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I think people like to focus on passport colours because the sheer magnitude and complexity of the alternative is just too scary to contemplate.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I think people like to focus on passport colours because the sheer magnitude and complexity of the alternative is just too scary to contemplate.

People like to focus on passport colours because it's symbolic, and their Brexit vote was largely based on symbolism rather than substance. They want "independence from Europe" and "not to be told what to do by Brussels" but don't really know what any of that means. But a blue passport is something they can touch.
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Stephen
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Except it was actually jet black. The pages were a light blue - I've still got my first one. They sent it back to me after I renewed it. The size was different - the 'new' EU passports were easier as it would fit into your shirt breast pocket, but I think the size is determined by an international body. ( I forget which) We may have sovereignty but so do other people [Two face]

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Best Wishes
Stephen

'Be still,then, and know that I am God: I will be exalted among the nations and I will be exalted in the earth' Ps46 v10

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Clint Boggis
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# 633

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
You are supposing that Mr Davis would have read them at all. I've heard from people who have had the privilege* of being at meetings with him that he will read the briefing notes circulated weeks in advance of the meeting during the meeting. Which is both lazy and disrespectful of the others who have spent the time preparing to do serious business at the meeting.

 

* if that's the appropriate word.

Re bib: It's worse than that! He's charged with overseeing negotiations on behalf of this country. If he disregards the background work, the assessments and the guidance of the army of civil servants who advise him, preferring to fly by the seat of his pants and use his limited personal expertise and judgement, then he's negligent of his duties. The feelings of civil servants are rather less important than their professional efforts ( which we've all paid for) not being allowed to carry their full weight. Imagine a judge ignoring witnesses, forensics or psychiatric reports to make a judgement!

Intolerable!

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Boogie

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I think people like to focus on passport colours because the sheer magnitude and complexity of the alternative is just too scary to contemplate.

Funny no one asks about the two French phrases written thereon.

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Garden. Room. Walk

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I think people like to focus on passport colours because the sheer magnitude and complexity of the alternative is just too scary to contemplate.

Funny no one asks about the two French phrases written thereon.
But this is really all about the impending disappearance of the two English words at the top of the passport, isn't it? The change of colour is a nice Brexmas present, but secondary.
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Alan Cresswell

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If we need to change the passport appearance, then this would be my choice.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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balaam

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quote:
Tweeted by Theresa May
The UK passport is an expression of our independence and sovereignty – symbolising our citizenship of a proud, great nation. That's why we have announced that the iconic #bluepassport will return after we leave the European Union in 2019.

But we did not have to take the burgundy colour, that was a British, not EU, decision, Croatia is a EC countries with blue passports, we could have had blue passports without leaving the EC.

The old blue/black passports, however, together with the French on the cover, were imposed by the UN.

It is, however, a sign of our sovereignty that we change from a colour we have decided on ourselves, to one that was imposed upon us from outside.

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Fearfully and wonderfully mad
Love the dinner, hate the din.
ن
blog

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If we need to change the passport appearance, then this would be my choice.

Very droll. Interesting that the writer says 'to wind up the Brexit bunch'. I've seen (positive) reaction from the Conservative, some Tory MPs, the Sun and (inevitably) Nigel Farage, but I've seen far more (negative) reaction from Remain supporters. Didn't realise they were so tetchy. Quite surprised by the amount of fake news surrounding this too.
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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by balaam:
The old blue/black passports, however, together with the French on the cover, were imposed by the UN.

I'm afraid I don't quite understand this bit. The only French that's on the cover, so far as I understand, are the French words in the coat of arms and that's traditional, hardly imposed by an outside body? And this blue/black example pre-dates the United Nations by over twenty years.
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Bishops Finger
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Why is it so hot in here?

And what am I doing in this handbasket?

And WTF is all this fuss about the cover of a bloody passport?

If the Orcs In Charge Of The World get their way, none of us will be able to travel anywhere.

But who'd want to go to the Great Orange Goblin's Usania, anyway?

[Help]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Bishops Finger
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Ooer...just a thought:

Great Orange Goblin = GOG! Isn't he in the Bible somewhere, as a Not Good Thing?

[Paranoid]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Boogie

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# 13538

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If we need to change the passport appearance, then this would be my choice.

Very droll. Interesting that the writer says 'to wind up the Brexit bunch'. I've seen (positive) reaction from the Conservative, some Tory MPs, the Sun and (inevitably) Nigel Farage, but I've seen far more (negative) reaction from Remain supporters. Didn't realise they were so tetchy. Quite surprised by the amount of fake news surrounding this too.
It’s a visible marker of a sad reality, that’s why remainers like me found our hearts sinking a little further when we saw it.


[Tear]

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Garden. Room. Walk

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Ricardus
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I've just worked out how Mr Corbyn can win overwhelming support for his manifesto! [Yipee]

Renationalisation of the railways, with a return to the maroon coaches and the logo with the lion on it.

Renationalisation of utilities, returning wrought-iron Victorian drinking fountains to public use.

£500bn infrastructure investment, to be spent rebuilding the Euston Arch and the Liverpool Overhead Railway, among other projects.

[ 23. December 2017, 13:33: Message edited by: Ricardus ]

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
I've just worked out how Mr Corbyn can win overwhelming support for his manifesto! [Yipee]

Renationalisation of the railways, with a return to the maroon coaches and the logo with the lion on it.

Renationalisation of utilities, returning wrought-iron Victorian drinking fountains to public use.

£500bn infrastructure investment, to be spent rebuilding the Euston Arch and the Liverpool Overhead Railway, among other projects.

If he can deliver that without turning us into a Venezuela-esque economic basket case, then I'm game. Full steam ahead!

[ 23. December 2017, 13:37: Message edited by: Anglican't ]

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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No, no! Blood-and-custard coaches, if you please!
As seen here...

A cheerful combination, although, admittedly, not that easy to keep clean in the days of steam...

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Baptist Trainfan
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# 15128

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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
No, no! Blood-and-custard coaches, if you please!
As seen here...

Or, much more recently, in Glasgow.
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Stephen
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# 40

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IIRC........I think they were chocolate and white here in GWR country........

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Best Wishes
Stephen

'Be still,then, and know that I am God: I will be exalted among the nations and I will be exalted in the earth' Ps46 v10

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Baptist Trainfan
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# 15128

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I think that came a bit later (?1956), just as blood-and-custard was being replaced by (better-wearing) maroon, and theoretically only for named express trains anyway.

And the Southern kept green ... What a good thing the North-east region didn't start painting its carriages tangerine! [Projectile]

[ 23. December 2017, 17:28: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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I'm surprised that the "leave" supporters are worried about the colour of the passport. Why would they want to travel abroad (assuming we would be allowed in?).
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RdrEmCofE
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# 17511

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I'm surprised that the "leave" supporters are worried about the colour of the passport. Why would they want to travel abroad (assuming we would be allowed in?).

To attend footy matches? Get drunk? Cause mayhem? Insult foreigners? Demand Fish and Chip shops remain open late on The Rivera or at Benidorm? To generally bring shame and disgrace upon a 'Proud and Independent Country'?

I don't know!

Judging from the two fingers up the blue passport signals to the rest of Europe, anyone holding one will have to endure longer queues and more intensive customs searches than will 'normal' burgundy EU passport holders.

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Love covers many sins. 1 Pet.4:8. God was in Christ, reconciling the world to himself, not holding their sins against them; 2 Cor.5:19

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Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I'm surprised that the "leave" supporters are worried about the colour of the passport. Why would they want to travel abroad

Perhaps the people who voted Leave are actually quite different from the grotesques that exist in the minds of some of those who voted Remain?

quote:
(assuming we would be allowed in?).

I think British people visited the continent before 1973...
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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I'm surprised that the "leave" supporters are worried about the colour of the passport. Why would they want to travel abroad

Perhaps the people who voted Leave are actually quite different from the grotesques that exist in the minds of some of those who voted Remain?

quote:
(assuming we would be allowed in?).

I think British people visited the continent before 1973...

Firstly, I'm going by the statements made by the
leading political proponents of leaving the EU: they seem a particularly nasty, selfish, clueless and opportunistic bunch.

Secondly, yes, we did travel to the continent before 1973 but that was before we put the Big Finger up at the continental nations.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Firstly, I'm going by the statements made by the
leading political proponents of leaving the EU: they seem a particularly nasty, selfish, clueless and opportunistic bunch.

Seems a rather harsh way to describe Gisela Stuart.
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Augustine the Aleut
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# 1472

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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Don't rush to blame Mr Davis.

I'm sorry, but that doesn't wash. I am aware of how the government works, although not the fine detail. However, the point is that ministers remain accountable for their departments. That's how democracy works. And if this is what was put across his desk, then he's HAS to send the mandarins away to do better. As hinted above, a pre-GCSE student would be sent away to do better if handing this in.

So there are a few possibilities - either these were produced overnight to cover Mr Davis' gaffe the other day or these, he has been sitting on for a while. Either way, he clearly is not leading the department at all.

AFZ

Perhaps I'm late to this part of the thread, but in the early 1980s I was in a cabinet minister's private office and I assure you that officials' papers were sent back a number of times and, in the case of major documents (and these would have been major documents), there were long briefing sessions where he challenged lines of thinking, numbers, and communications strategies. In later years, officials told me that they really liked this sort of thing, partly for the intellectual exercise, and partly because it cleared out a lot of nonsense which looked good at the time it was written. In a few ministers' offices, senior political staff helped do this.

I had a quick look through the documents here and can assure you that my old boss would have pulled the Deputy (permanent civil service head of department aside) and would have clearly and calmly asked him why undergraduates had taken over drafting cabinet papers. I would agree with alienfromzog's assertion that Mr Davis is not leading his department but the current UK cabinet configuration is such that nobody might have noticed.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Firstly, I'm going by the statements made by the
leading political proponents of leaving the EU: they seem a particularly nasty, selfish, clueless and opportunistic bunch.

Seems a rather harsh way to describe Gisela Stuart.
Sounds perfect to me; not all of them have the traits in the same mix, but the same applies to Hoey, Hannan, Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove, and so on.
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Martin60
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# 368

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Hezza backs Jezza!

"Corbyn as PM would do ‘less damage’ than Brexit, says Remain fanatic Tory Lord Heseltine

The Europhile said Britain has survived Labour governments in the past as the damage is short-term but leaving the European Union is 'not capable of rectification'." The Sun

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Love wins

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Martin60
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# 368

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Rejoice! It's all right!! The rich are getting richer!!! The Footsie is up over 300 points since the end of November, over 4% because sterling has been trashed by Brexit. So many international companies HQ in London that their foreign currency income is soaring by doing nothing! Hmmmmmmmm. Dark lining to that silver cloud tho'. The demand for sterling will go up on exchange. Bummer. For the rich.

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Love wins

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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There's an interesting point of terminology which is going on. The EU describe the period after Brexit as a transition, during which EU rules will still operate, and a trade deal is negotiated. As the vernacular has it, this is pay-no-say.

However, the govt describe it as an implementation period, presumably suggesting that there is something to be implemented. What this is is carefully left in the shadows.

I don't think you can negotiate a trade deal until you are a third country, so there is nothing to implement right now.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Louise
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# 30

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quote:
Tweeted by Donald Trump:
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

Your occasional reminder that thanks to the Brexiteers our government is cosying up to this malicious and dangerous moron for a trade deal.

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Now you need never click a Daily Mail link again! Kittenblock replaces Mail links with calming pics of tea and kittens! http://www.teaandkittens.co.uk/ Click under 'other stuff' to find it.

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Eutychus
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# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
There's an interesting point of terminology which is going on. The EU describe the period after Brexit as a transition, during which EU rules will still operate, and a trade deal is negotiated. As the vernacular has it, this is pay-no-say.

However, the govt describe it as an implementation period, presumably suggesting that there is something to be implemented. What this is is carefully left in the shadows.

I don't think you can negotiate a trade deal until you are a third country, so there is nothing to implement right now.

That's interesting. If that continues, it will be a question of how much of a deal outside the EU the UK can get for its money.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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alienfromzog

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# 5327

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So, it's only taken 560 days but finally we have a potential positive effect of Brexit....

Only one, but honesty compels me to admit that the announcement of reforms to farm subsidies to prioritise good environmental management is a genuinely good thing.

But there are 4 caveats to this (I'll let you decide how important each of these is)...

1) This is the first announcement of intent: given all that has been promised previously, the jury is out on what the final policy will look like. There are specific reasons to think that the government may well back-track on today's announcement (see below for some of them) and that's not because I don't trust Michael Gove one inch. I don't, but that's not part of my argument.

2) This is not what Farmers were promised. The Leave Campaign specifically promised to match EU subsidies (which is just one of the ways that you know the £350m claim is ridiculous given that the Common Agricultural Policy accounts for around half of EU funding and a huge chunk of the money that comes back to the UK from Europe). Then again, no-one else is going to get what they were promised so why should Farmers (and Landowners) be any different…

3) Such a radical change in subsidy policy is a potentially huge stumbling block to any putative UK-EU trade deal. You know, the one, that David Davis said would be easy… If you don't believe me, look at how farm subsidies (on both sides) has been such a massive problem for EU-USA trade negotiations.

4) The devil is very much in the detail. The headline announcement sounds good but what exactly is the policy?

Given that the net UK contribution to the EU is around £10Bn/year and leaving the EU is going to cost the UK economy somewhere between £50-80Bn/year (and thus likely 20-35Bn in tax revenue) not to mention the (probably insurmountable) problems for Northern Ireland, and a whole host of other things, Brexit remains a stupid idea.

However, I have finally found something to be positive about!!! And it only took 560 days!

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Eirenist
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# 13343

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Who thinks Michael Gove will still be running environmental policy in 2005?

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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Eirenist
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# 13343

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Sorry, that should have read 2025.

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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