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Source: (consider it) Thread: Thoughts on PM May's Speech
Eutychus
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# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Had Britain voted 52% Remain I'm not sure what would've changed.

Like so much else right now, the problem is one of checks and balances.

EU membership supplied some useful ones against the prospect of the UK simply becoming Airstrip One, as now seems more likely.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Had Britain voted 52% Remain I'm not sure what would've changed.

Like so much else right now, the problem is one of checks and balances.

EU membership supplied some useful ones against the prospect of the UK simply becoming Airstrip One, as now seems more likely.

Such as what? EU membership didn't stop the UK taking a role alongside the US in a controversial war that many European nations opposed.
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Eutychus
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No, but it did give the UK access to the Single Market. I cannot think May throwing herself at Trump's feet is about anything other than the sudden desperate need to have trading partners the UK hasn't recently antagonised.

It also put the UK in various summits such as the Council of Ministers. Having other Member States as partners provided some insulation against US influence, whether you think that was good or bad.

[ 31. January 2017, 20:02: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

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mr cheesy
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Listening to the debate in the Commons today, I was tiny tiny bit persuaded that there might be mileage in the idea that the EU needs a good deal from Brexit.

The rationale being that in losing the UK, the EU is losing a net contributor (which, incidentally, it wouldn't get if Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland together or independently rejoined). The bills are increasing, the pressure is increasing and it may well be the case that any kind of net contributions from the UK would be better than a big hole of nothing if the UK left.

Ideally the EU presumably would like to charge the UK through the nose for being part of the common market, Horizon 2020 and the other goodies that the UK wants. But given that May seems to have rowed back on the idea of taking the common market with freedom of movement, it seems plausible that the EU nations might take some other deal as long as the contributions to the UK were net-positive.

And - maybe - that wouldn't be too hard to work out on paper. If the UK wasn't part of the CAP and wasn't taking money from the structural funds then maybe the EU doesn't have to receive much in the way of paying-over-the-odds from the UK for H2020 and the healthcare of UK pensioners in the EU and something that looks a bit like the common market.

Punishing the UK for Brexit risks May leaving with no deal (which would be stupid, but I'm not sure the EU leaders can afford to take that risk given the black hole it would leave in the finances).

But giving too much of a sweetheart deal risks the collapse of the whole EU project. There is no point in having an EU if a country can leave and get an equivalent or better deal.

It's a bit like poker, with each side trying to decide how the other is likely to play the cards they are dealt and trying to ensure that they don't put too much on the table.

That said, I still think that a good EU deal is going to be crap for Wales for several reasons; not least because the Tory government is never going to match the funds which currently come from the EU and any trade restrictions will leave us in a worse position.

But maybe we are being over-negative about the idea of the EU punishing the UK. I'm not sure they can afford to do that.

The stakes are high for both sides.

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
... it could be that the world is now stood at the edge of an unprecedented period of prosperity.

Along with Alice's Queen, if you can believe that, you must have spent many years practising believing six impossible things before breakfast.

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rolyn
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Fair enough Enoch
But if you look at the last Century and consider all the possibilities that were thwarted by the waging of war, the suspicion of war and the preparation for the threat of war then why not believe in something different.

Trump/Putin as part of a world government may not be perfect, far from perfect in the opinion of many, I get that. However, can anyone find a 'perfect' in 10,000 yrs of human struggle?

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Brexit means Trump. We've basically decided to turn our back on Europe and hope that we can play patacake with an authoritarian white nationalist. I really can't see this ending well.

Do you really think so? The UK has long tried to forge a close relationship with the United States (mainly on defence and foreign affairs issues) and the Thatcher / Reagan, Blair / Clinton, Blair / Bush and Cameron / Obama relationships were all cultivated when we were fully paid up EEC / EU members. Had Britain voted 52% Remain I'm not sure what would've changed.
Yes, I really think so. Most state visits have been offered to US Presidents when they have been in situ for a couple of years, not in the first week. Had Remain won by 52% Cameron would have sent congratulations on the inauguration and then played it cool. He wouldn't have offered a state visit in exchange for being the first foreign leader to visit in the hope of negotiating a trade deal to make up for crashing out of the Single Market. Particularly not during the first week of a President's incumbency which looks fair set to be wholly disastrous. When Cameron was Leader of the Opposition he actually got gip from the right wing press for being, as they saw it, excessively critical of US Foreign Policy. Granted Cameron's leadership of the Tory party was characterised by his thinking tactically rather than strategically but his current position wouldn't have been based on the same desperation as Mays.

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quetzalcoatl
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I agree with that. I thought Mrs May had a desperate air, going over to see Trump, and then offering the state visit. She has no choice really, faced with the exit from Europe. She has to cultivate other markets, and other political allies. We just have to hope that the desperation doesn't impel her to sell us down the river.

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Alan Cresswell

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further down the river.

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quetzalcoatl
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Or into the river, soaking wet, without anything to hold on to, and on the bank, various right-wing politicians are shouting, 'you have to help yourself now!'.

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TurquoiseTastic

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I don't see this "no choice" thing. It's not as though we would cease to trade with the US otherwise - any more than we will cease to trade with the EU after Brexit.
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Humble Servant
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I think we should be talking about sanctions, rather than trade deals, given the direction of travel on torture and refugees.

[ 01. February 2017, 11:28: Message edited by: Humble Servant ]

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
I don't see this "no choice" thing. It's not as though we would cease to trade with the US otherwise - any more than we will cease to trade with the EU after Brexit.

From the POV of the country as a whole, you are probably correct. From the POV of the politicians who have tied their stars to Brexit (including May) not so much.
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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
I don't see this "no choice" thing. It's not as though we would cease to trade with the US otherwise - any more than we will cease to trade with the EU after Brexit.

It's possible that trade with Europe will be hit; for one thing, the problems of harmonization of regulations could turn out to be huge. At the moment, a truck driving from Hungary to Manchester goes through borders relatively smoothly - what happens after Brexit? Checking of documents, checking of loads?

Any competent government has to allow for this, unless they are just going to start shouting, 'everything will be alright'.

Probably, the EEA will still permit such smooth transits, but are this government rejecting that?

[ 01. February 2017, 12:14: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

Probably, the EEA will still permit such smooth transits, but are this government rejecting that?

Yes, they have rejected it as a side effect of rejecting everything it is based around (single market, customs union, dispute resolution).
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quetzalcoatl
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I thought that May had made various Delphic remarks about accepting part of the customs union, or having an adjunct to it, or something.

The EEA seems a way in which many issues could be parked, for however long it takes, e.g. harmonization, but I suppose the headbangers will not wear it.

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TurquoiseTastic

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# 8978

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But there is no reason to suppose that the EU would allow Britain to remain part of the EEA under any circumstances.
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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
But there is no reason to suppose that the EU would allow Britain to remain part of the EEA under any circumstances.

Citation?

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quetzalcoatl
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Amusing reports that someone riding a horse across the Irish border, would need paperwork.

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Trump/Putin as part of a world government may not be perfect, far from perfect in the opinion of many, I get that.

It's hard not to think that, with Russia and the US as allies, a major war is less likely.

That doesn't mean it would be a good world to live in, of course...

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leo
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Trump/Putin as part of a world government may not be perfect, far from perfect in the opinion of many, I get that.

It's hard not to think that, with Russia and the US as allies, a major war is less likely.
China?

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rolyn
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
That doesn't mean it would be a good world to live in, of course...

With all this trump an brexit stuff going on it seems that many think the world will be less good. Going against much of written on these boards in recent months, even some of my own commentary, it could be that this is all a gigantic misconception .

I mean all this talk of trump the facist and Theresa the appeaser, has anyone here really stopped to consider what this Country would look like if IS used strategically placed mini-nukes to grab power here?
Unlikely I'll grant you, but 5 minutes living under that regime would give all of us here the true meaning of callousness, bigotry, fascism and all the other words that have become cheapen and fashionable to throw about like confetti.

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
That doesn't mean it would be a good world to live in, of course...

With all this trump an brexit stuff going on it seems that many think the world will be less good. Going against much of written on these boards in recent months, even some of my own commentary, it could be that this is all a gigantic misconception .

I mean all this talk of trump the facist and Theresa the appeaser, has anyone here really stopped to consider what this Country would look like if IS used strategically placed mini-nukes to grab power here?
Unlikely I'll grant you, but 5 minutes living under that regime would give all of us here the true meaning of callousness, bigotry, fascism and all the other words that have become cheapen and fashionable to throw about like confetti.

Jesus tap-dancing Christ you do talk bollocks. Granted that a nuclear attack by ISIS would be bad and wrong but Trump and May being preferable to said attack is a pretty low bar to carry. Mrs Thatcher was expected to be better than Mr Callaghan. Mr Blair was expected to be better than Mr Major. in a sensible representative democracy it is taken as read that the government is preferable to a nuclear strike by a bunch of loonies.

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quetzalcoatl
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Quite interesting to see Osborne in the Commons today, saying that the govt are prioritizing immigration over the economy. I thought that this was also rather Delphic, as he might have added, 'and when it goes tits up, don't blame me'. But he didn't.

He got the sack, but he is coining it in, as they say.

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quetzalcoatl
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Ivan Roberts, giving evidence to the Select Committee, says that the EU will not give way on sector by sector deals, e.g. on fishing, agriculture, and so on. He also said that Richard North's idea of Flexcit is not a goer.

What does this mean? That only a total deal is acceptable to the EU? Anyway, Roberts seems to think this will take until the 2020s, and is a massive negotiation. Well, obvs.

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
But there is no reason to suppose that the EU would allow Britain to remain part of the EEA under any circumstances.

Citation?
"The only alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit": Donald Tusk 13/10/16. He also said that May's speech of Jan 17, widely interpreted as heading for hard Brexit, was "more realistic".

I think the EU are glad to get shot of us. They wish we would hurry up and trigger Article 50 - they don't see why we didn't do this before the end of last June.

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Louise
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Trump/Putin as part of a world government may not be perfect, far from perfect in the opinion of many, I get that.

It's hard not to think that, with Russia and the US as allies, a major war is less likely.

That doesn't mean it would be a good world to live in, of course...

This is the chap he just put on the NSC.

Donald Trump's closest advisor thinks that the US will be at war with China in the next few years.

Good luck with that.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
"The only alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit": Donald Tusk 13/10/16. He also said that May's speech of Jan 17, widely interpreted as heading for hard Brexit, was "more realistic".

Yes, but without wanting to sound like a Brexit Tory, he would say that.

In reality, the EU is losing a net contributor in the UK, so it is hardly in the interests of the EU countries to offer such a crap deal that May marches out with all her toys.

I accept they can't offer a really good deal and can't look like they're offering something that looks like EU membership without all the trappings (thus destroying the whole thing), but if they can somehow get a deal whereby the UK contributes more than they take out, then that is pretty good going for them compared to a big black hole where the UK contributions used to be.

quote:
I think the EU are glad to get shot of us. They wish we would hurry up and trigger Article 50 - they don't see why we didn't do this before the end of last June.
I think there is a level of talking up positions going on. I don't think the EU is really "glad to get shot of us" because they're interested in economic stability, and the whole thing looks less stable without the UK contributions.

So, from this arch-Remainer, I'd say that there might be more to discuss with the EU than I even thought last week.

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Bishops Finger
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Well, if President Trumpannon reckons the US will be at war with China in a few years' time, I think I'll forget about any more home painting and decorating....and I'll stop worrying about Brexit, too..

IJ

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

So, from this arch-Remainer, I'd say that there might be more to discuss with the EU than I even thought last week.

This is what the Leave side tried to tell us before the referendum! It didn't make sense then and it makes even less sense now...
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rolyn
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Jesus tap-dancing Christ you do talk bollocks. Granted that a nuclear attack by ISIS would be bad and wrong but Trump and May being preferable to said attack is a pretty low bar to carry.

The point I was making wasn't about preferability, is was about perspective. It could be that this new trump-style provocation politics requires exaggeration from the opposing side. However, name calling didn't stop him getting elected so he's not likely to be bothered the facist accusations and general hysteria flying about now.

We could debate forever over what does, or does not classify as a better world. Accepted a war between the US and China wouldn't fall into many people's dictionary definition of 'better'. But can May's or any other world leader's snub make a difference to what goes on in the US?

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Golden Key
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rolyn--

Respectfully, have you noticed the horrible things Trump is *already* doing?

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rolyn
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Also respectfully Golden Key, the things he has so far done after just 2 weeks in office look relatively horrible by the standard of some of the sentiment that preceded him. Regardless of whether we agree with it or not, the only thing trump is guilty of so far is doing what he said he was going to do.

Stone-hearted though it may sound, it simply is not aceptable to an increasing majority in Western Countries that our doors should be opened to an unlimited number of folk from other disadvantaged countries-- accepted the current contention is over direct discrimination.
Personally I am not overly comfortable with brexit or trump, their success though is directly linked to the catastrophic error in 03 that went on to cause massive instability in the mid-east. Although there is doubtless a viewpoint that says the removal of Iraq's and Libya's oil-rich dictators was a good thing with the human cost an unfortunate consequence.
It remains to be seen if whether trump's crass alienation of Muslims makes matters worse or merely serves America as a damage limitation exercise. Horrible and good things lay ahead of us, horrible and good things lay behind us . This is the way the world is.

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Rosa Winkel

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
I'm counting on you, UKians. The man understands only crowds. Show up in pussy hats and protest signs. Make him feel that pain. If you can make up some truly scurrilous chants so much the better. (In DC it was "He's orange! He's gross! He lost the popular vote!")

How about this chant?:

Not work safe

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Schroedinger's cat

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rolyn - I do see where you are coming from, but to refuse to accept people from countries where we (the west at least) have caused the instability, the problems, where we are continuing to provide the weapons is disgusting.

Maybe we shouldn't open our borders to anyone from anywhere - although personally, I think we probably should - but to close them to those we are responsible for uprooting is wilful blindness.

What is more, the way that Trump (and May and Cameron) has done this also shows an appalling blinkered sight. Trump has arbitrarily blocked most people from certain random countries. The only logic is that he is anti-Muslim. That is not acceptable.

I was reading yesterday that applications for nursing have reduced in the UK (hardly surprising). The government wants to limit immigration from the EU as well as further. Which makes me ask, where on earth will we get the nursing staff for the future from - so many are from other countries, and clearly home-grown talent is not really wanted, so we will hit an even bigger crisis (which will not only hit the NHS, of course).

I think the anti-immigration legislation is far too late. We rely on immigrants. We have historical responsibilities to immigrants. And, in the UK, we have quite enough emigrants as well, so it is a two-way process.

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Lord may all my hard times be healing times
take out this broken heart and renew my mind.

Posts: 18499 | From: At the bottom of a deep dark well. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
ThunderBunk

Stone cold idiot
# 15579

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It is not acceptable to some to be held responsible for their actions, and for supporting those who are suffering the consequences of those actions? Tough shit. They'd better learn to suck it up, because it's coming and it's not going to stop.

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Currently mostly furious, and occasionally foolish. Normal service may resume eventually. Or it may not. And remember children, "feiern ist wichtig".

Foolish, potentially deranged witterings

Posts: 2111 | From: Norwich | Registered: Apr 2010  |  IP: Logged
Callan
Shipmate
# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
I'm counting on you, UKians. The man understands only crowds. Show up in pussy hats and protest signs. Make him feel that pain. If you can make up some truly scurrilous chants so much the better. (In DC it was "He's orange! He's gross! He lost the popular vote!")

Actually, it's a perfect response to the "oh, but demonstrations never change anything" people. Most leaders are inured to that sort of thing. Thatcher would have snorted something contemptuous over her whisky. Blair and Bush II would have made polite noises about the right to peaceful protest whilst silently noting that it was they who are in the corridors of power making decisions. Trump gets really riled - he's spent his life surrounded by yes men and sycophants and he now has to cope with the fact that there are millions of people out there who think he's a pratt. It must be torture for him. I haven't been on a demo for years. Frankly, I can't wait.

Small hands! Bad hair! Get back over there!

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

Posts: 9677 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061

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I like it. And elder activists from the '60s have spoken well of modern signage -- witty, literate, and barbed. I count upon you guys to stick the blade in, hard. (For the scientist march in DC in April I am contemplating, "Heinlein Warned Us!")

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

Posts: 5356 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014  |  IP: Logged
lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
(For the scientist march in DC in April I am contemplating, "Heinlein Warned Us!")

Cheeto won't get it. Unless they've reissued one of the juvenile series 140 characters at a time. With Trump inserted in each installment.

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

Posts: 16603 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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It doesn't really matter if he gets it. Just get some good witty signs.

To amend an old song, when it comes to The Donald I think we can safely say "You're so vain. I bet you think this sign is about you".

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 31965 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468

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LOL, Alan.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?"--Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon"
--"I'm not giving up--and neither should you." --SNL

Posts: 17655 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged



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