homepage
  roll on christmas  
click here to find out more about ship of fools click here to sign up for the ship of fools newsletter click here to support ship of fools
community the mystery worshipper gadgets for god caption competition foolishness features ship stuff
discussion boards live chat cafe avatars frequently-asked questions the ten commandments gallery private boards register for the boards
 
Ship of Fools


Post new thread  Post a reply
My profile login | Register | Directory | Search | FAQs | Board home
   - Printer-friendly view Next oldest thread   Next newest thread
» Ship of Fools   » Community discussion   » Purgatory   » French elections 2017 (Page 6)

 - Email this page to a friend or enemy.  
Pages in this thread: 1  2  3  4  5  6 
 
Source: (consider it) Thread: French elections 2017
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
It's certainly put the cat among the pigeons in the traditional parties.

A REM! majority in the National Assembly suddenly looks a lot more plausible, but there's a month to go yet.

In the meantime, Macron intends to push through two pieces of law by executive order prior to the elections, on reforming the Labour Act and on ethics in politics. That will be an interesting test and probably have an impact on the election.

Mélenchon's popularity is sinking like a stone, btw.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

 - Posted      Profile for la vie en rouge     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
I’m not surprised that Mélenchon is in the doldrums. My diehard left-wing intellectual friend mentioned upthread has declared himself deeply disappointed. I think he’s not alone in considering it beyond the pale that Mélenchon refused to come out categorically against Le Pen. And in the cold light of day one can’t help remembering that he’s always been a bit of a megalomaniac (Mélenchon, I mean, not my friend [Biased] ).

--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France

Posts: 3558 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
So how is Macron being viewed?

Favourable press outside France from what I can see. Particularly #that# handshake and his comments on Trump's various declarations and decisions.

I know it's off topic for this thread, but are his party's chances for the election looking better due to his performance?

Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
He has certainly made the most of his overseas outings since being elected.

At home he has had a few missteps, with an unfortunate off-the-cuff remark about migrants to the island of Mayotte and a minor minister embroiled in a conflict-of-interest kerfuffle that does not sit well with his stated aim of cleaning up French political life, even if most of the outrage seems to be manufactured.

Macron has done well in the voting for overseas constituencies (which has already happened) but with a very low turnout. I think we're suffering from election fatigue. The first round of voting in the general election is this Sunday.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Merci.

And I did not realise they were so close, or had started!

Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
You wrote "first round". How does voting work this time around? Do you have electorates? Or are people elected direct to Parliament? I can see how 2 rounds work for the President...how does it work for MPs?
Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
To be elected in the first round, a candidate is required to secure an absolute majority of votes cast and to secure votes equal to at least 25% of eligible voters. Should none of the candidates satisfy these conditions, a second round of voting ensues. Only first-round candidates with the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters are allowed to participate, but if fewer than two candidates meet that standard the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round may continue to the second round. In the second round, the candidate with a relative majority is elected.
Source

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Interesting... thanks.
Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530

 - Posted      Profile for stonespring     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
The polls seem to be predicting a massive victory for Macron's Republique En Marche party. Do people here think this is likely? Are people in what used to be safe Republicain or Socialist constituencies switching to En Marche in large numbers (that is, where the local incumbent member of parliament, regardless of party, has not voiced support for Macron)?
Posts: 1485 | Registered: Mar 2010  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

 - Posted      Profile for la vie en rouge     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
I don’t think you can be sure, but I think Macron could do well, because he’s been very smart in his approach to the Republicans and figured out who he can do deals with. In foie gras land, for instance, there is no REM candidate, because the incumbent Republican has indicated that she is willing to work with him to form a parliamentary majority.

As I said previously, I live just round the corner from Republican party HQ and there is good reason to believe they are going to lose the seat.

--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France

Posts: 3558 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
From a former French correspondent in a paywalled article:
quote:
Two ministers have become enmeshed in ethics scandals that risk compromising weekend legislative elections for the government, rendering Macron’s revolution stillborn via the ballot box. Whatever his successes out-tweeting — out-smarting — Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on the international stage, his first weeks have been sullied at home, and he will be blamed. But to what extent?

Should Macron decide to dismiss Richard Ferrand, his regional development minister and former campaign manager, and junior minister Marielle de Sarnez — both facing separate media allegations of sleaze — he would be charged with summoning a spectacular storm upon the government. If he doesn’t, and it appears at this stage that he will not, he could pay the price for ignoring one of the biggest lessons of the current electoral cycle: the French are tired of scandals and want exemplary behaviour from politicians.

Does that ring true to you? The last few lines particularly?
Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
The sleaze allegations are certainly coming at a bad time. If I were Macron I'd hold firm until after the elections and then lose the ministers in question in the subsequent cabinet reshuffle.

I'm starting to be nervous about Macron again.

The fact that one of his core supports has got mired in scandal after EM !'s extreme vetting makes it look as though his project is becoming unglued already.

He clearly has a good understanding of the power of symbols - look at presidential election night and that upstaging of Trump - but his flagship announcement of an "anti-terrorism task force" looks more like style than substance, and his plans to transpose at least some state-of-emergency legislation into ordinary law are disquieting.

His style of government looks less like the consensus-building image EM ! projected and more akin to Sarkozy's, with a degree of control verging on the control freakery. We'll just have to wait and see.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Any last minute hiccoughs, triumphs, etc.?

According to the BBC there are the always-present "colourful characters":
quote:
There are a number of colourful characters in the Macron camp - a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara; an eclair entrepreneur in Lille, Brigitte Liso; a Rwandan refugee in Brittany, Hervé Berville; and Cédric Villani, a "mathematics evangelist" known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches.
I'm reading a bit about Jean-Christophe Cambadélis's 20-year-held Paris seat and the challenger, Mounir Mahjoubi.
Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
La République en Marche is expected to win a comfortable majority and have virtually no sizeable opposition, on a low turnout. The Socialists are expected to be wiped out. I am in a Socialist safe seat and still haven't fully made up my mind who to vote for today.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Belgian TV is projecting 37.2% for LREM, an estimated final total on June 18 of 400 seats out of 577 (!) with a turnout of just under 50%, yet another record low.

I hope this is good news and that LREM aren't evil.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I am in a Socialist safe seat and still haven't fully made up my mind who to vote for today.

Oops. The socialists didn't even make it into the second round there: LREM won over 40% of my constituency vote followed by Mélenchon's lot with 14%.

Pundit talk on the tv tonight is that the lack of a parliamentary opposition will mean "the opposition will be in the streets". Exciting times.

[ 11. June 2017, 21:14: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

 - Posted      Profile for Ian Climacus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
That is a very low turnout. I am amazed so many are that disinterested, or perhaps uninterested. Is there some minimum that needs to be reached, or if 25% turn up is all considered good? Coming from a country where it is compulsory to turn up to vote, 50% shocks me.

Well done Macron though. And with a new party too. It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Posts: 7372 | From: Albury, Australia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530

 - Posted      Profile for stonespring     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
How do they predict the number of seats from the second round? Where an LREM candidate is against a FN candidate, I can understand assuming the LREM candidate will win. What about where an LREM candidate is up againt a LR or PS candidate that does not support Macron? And mightn't the FI/PCF candidates pull off a few surprises where enough leftists turn out to try to make things difficult for Macron? And what about any three or four-way races? How do they make assumptions then? I don't see how the forecasters are so confident.
Posts: 1485 | Registered: Mar 2010  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
If there is a second round (ie no candidate has won the required majority in the first round), an initial rough voting prediction can be made by guessing where the percentage of the vote that went to those candidates who didn't make the cut might go.

Of course there may be some new voters and some who don't bother to vote in the second round, but it's a fairly reliable guide (note however that the margin of error is still pretty large - the Front National is now forecast to get anywhere between 1 and 5 seats, LREM between 415 and 455, for instance).

I haven't checked, but the word was that the large number of different candidates in most constituencies this time (especially on the left) means that there will be very few three and four-way contests in the second round.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530

 - Posted      Profile for stonespring     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Macron has his majority, but turnout was way down in the second round of the legislatives and his majority is about 50 seats less than predicted. Will it be smooth sailing for his agenda? Will the Socialist Party recover in the next election or is it really kaput?
Posts: 1485 | Registered: Mar 2010  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

 - Posted      Profile for la vie en rouge     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
If Macron is smart, he’ll push the most prickly legislation through over the summer when no one can be bothered protesting about it (and probably quite a bit of it by executive order). I am nonetheless expecting some quite ugly strikes once he sets about reforming the labour law.

--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France

Posts: 3558 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530

 - Posted      Profile for stonespring     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
There seem to be multiple scandals among Macron's political allies, including his closest political confidante and also in the MoDem party of his ally Bayrou, who is justice minister and now it seems protested too much in his talk of cleaning up government - all these scandals very similar to the "fake jobs" scandals that afflicted Fillon and LePen. Should Macron do all he can to protect his allies so he can get things passed, even if it makes him look like the old corrupt political establishment? Should he make all his allies that are implicated fall on their swords even if it means fracturing his support in Parliament? Or should he be brutally honest with the French people and say that many politicians of both the right and the left have been doing this for a long time with impunity and offer an amnesty if a politician admits to everything and pays back every cent that their family members were paid by the government to do nothing? Or would that be the most disastrous choice of all?

Also - is Macron in his elitism and sense of entitlement similar to David Cameron? Could this serve to undermine him, especially if he winds up making cuts to government jobs, services, and benefits (and labor protections) like Cameron did? Or is he more like a French Tony Blair who has triangulated his way to victory over right and left but risks alienating a huge groups of people with his pro-market policies who will turn even further to the extremes of the political spectrum?

Posts: 1485 | Registered: Mar 2010  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
I've been working with politicians all week. The remark that rang the most true for me was a comparison between Macron and Napoleon.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

 - Posted      Profile for la vie en rouge     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Bayrou has gone. If nothing else, I think this shows Manu is prepared to be ruthless. He doesn’t need MoDem anymore and is prepared to cut them loose if they are becoming a liability. It remains to be seen whether he is willing, or more to the point, capable, of being equally ruthless with the trades’ unions.

A completely different point, which I have been mulling over for the last few days. I am currently reading this book which argues that the Baby Boomers set up society to serve only themselves and ripped off their children in the process. The author is an American writing about the US, but I think it applies to quite a lot of developed countries. ISTM that a significant but rather overlooked element of recent elections is that France has just become the first developed country to kick the Boomers out of office. Dégagisme* isn’t just about the established parties, it’s about saying wealthy old white people don’t get to run the show anymore. Macron is 39. The average REM deputy is 45. Macron has already announced the colour, as the French say, by overtly saying he is going to put up social charges, including on pensions, because wealthy retirees haven’t been paying their fair share.

* I think the translation of this should be something like “getoutism” although for my own entertainment I am going to offer “buggeroffism”. Basically the desire to kick out the status quo.

[ETA missing word]

[ 21. June 2017, 09:18: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]

--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France

Posts: 3558 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Here's an interesting article explaining all the symbolism in Macron's presidential photo. He doesn't leave much to chance.

--------------------
One has to take part. Scary as it is. - Martin60
Jerusalem is a city without walls

Posts: 16985 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

 - Posted      Profile for simontoad   Email simontoad   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
While listening to an episode of the News Quiz aired before the UK election, I heard Miles Jupp use his schoolboy French to translate Macron's Republique En Marche as "People of the Swamp". Stupid? Sure. But I wet myself laughing, metaphorically of course. [Snigger]

--------------------
The opinions expressed above are transitory emotional responses and do not necessarily reflect the considered views of the author.

Posts: 1011 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014  |  IP: Logged
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530

 - Posted      Profile for stonespring     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Macron has spoken about changing the French electoral system to be more proportional. Does he realize that he could never have won under a strictly-PR system? Or does he want to do something like Australian House of Representatives (instant runoff voting, rather than the current two-round system), which isn't PR but does result in more widely-deemed "acceptable" candidates being elected? Or something in-between like STV in the Irish Dail - which can result in lots of independents being elected that all want money and other perks for their districts and can make achieving working majorities very difficult? He wants to reduce the number of MPs and do other changes that he says he will bring to a referendum if Parliament does not pass them. Would a referendum just result in a protest vote against the government like the one that brought down Matteo Renzi in Italy? Is this wise?
Posts: 1485 | Registered: Mar 2010  |  IP: Logged



Pages in this thread: 1  2  3  4  5  6 
 
Post new thread  Post a reply Close thread   Feature thread   Move thread   Delete thread Next oldest thread   Next newest thread
 - Printer-friendly view
Go to:

Contact us | Ship of Fools | Privacy statement

© Ship of Fools 2016

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM 6.5.0

 
Check out Reform magazine
sip of fools mugs from your favourite nautical website
 
  ship of fools