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Source: (consider it) Thread: Indyref2
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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I don't think the British government has any sense at all. If it did, and was serious about wanting to maintain the Union between Scotland and the rest of the UK, they wouldn't be needlessly heading down a road almost purposefully designed to push Scotland to Indyref2, with an almost certainly larger vote in favour in independence than in 2014.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 31979 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128

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I agree with Alan (as on many things!)

ITSM that The Most Dangerous Woman In Britain has got The Most Powerful Woman In Britain in a headlock which she will not release lightly. Sturgeon is nothing if not canny.

Quite apart from the EU question, all this would have been avoided if Cameron had listened to those who said that Devo-max should have been an option last time round - it would have swept the board and drawn the SNP's teeth.

Since then opinion has surely hardened, not just over the EU but over "Westminster not taking Scotland into account". Despite Gordon Brown's best efforts, that possibility has had its day.

[ 19. March 2017, 05:52: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

Posts: 9245 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009  |  IP: Logged
Baptist Trainfan
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# 15128

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PS Probably the SNP's task is among the burghers of Corstorphine and Morningside, who need to be convinced that they can vote "yes" to independence without necessarily endorsing the party's centre-left political position.
Posts: 9245 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009  |  IP: Logged
TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

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Well, I'm not sure about the British Government, but I think one of the problems is that the population of England is not really serious about keeping Scotland in the Union. The two opinions that seem to be aired most are "they've no right to leave, the traitors, how dare they" and "good riddance, I'd be glad to see the back of them". Neither of these builds up the Union much.
Posts: 1073 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
PS Probably the SNP's task is among the burghers of Corstorphine and Morningside, who need to be convinced that they can vote "yes" to independence without necessarily endorsing the party's centre-left political position.

I expect they will resort to the ABE position (Anyone But (the) English) which works in most circumstances, especially after so many Scots felt that the "better together" campaign ratted on the promise to give Holyrood more powers.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

Posts: 23910 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The two opinions that seem to be aired most are "they've no right to leave, the traitors, how dare they" and "good riddance, I'd be glad to see the back of them". Neither of these builds up the Union much.

The one I hear more often than those is a shrug and "I think they'd be making a mistake." I don't claim my friends and family are typical, though. They are mostly of the opinion that, even with Brexit, it would be a bad idea for the Scots to leave the UK, but they recognize the right of the Scots to have a different opinion.

They'll be sad if the UK breaks up, but tend to feel that the Scots have a generous deal from the UK at the moment (subsidy by English taxpayers, extra MPs in Westminster) and aren't interested in offering them any more goodies to stay. They tend to oppose further devolution without a removal of the northward-flowing tax subsidy.

Posts: 4764 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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I also hear a note of envy - lucky sods, getting away from Tory governments.

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no path

Posts: 9525 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The two opinions that seem to be aired most are "they've no right to leave, the traitors, how dare they" and "good riddance, I'd be glad to see the back of them". Neither of these builds up the Union much.

The one I hear more often than those is a shrug and "I think they'd be making a mistake." I don't claim my friends and family are typical, though. They are mostly of the opinion that, even with Brexit, it would be a bad idea for the Scots to leave the UK, but they recognize the right of the Scots to have a different opinion.

They'll be sad if the UK breaks up, but tend to feel that the Scots have a generous deal from the UK at the moment (subsidy by English taxpayers, extra MPs in Westminster) and aren't interested in offering them any more goodies to stay. They tend to oppose further devolution without a removal of the northward-flowing tax subsidy.

That’s pretty much what I’ve heard as well. And as some sections of Scotland don’t seem to value the Union much either as they’re always wanting to leave, why bother getting in their way. They’re getting a good deal, much better than the rest of the UK, and they’re still not happy.

That said, a number of polls this weekend said that the majority of Scotland don’t want another vote and may still vote to stay in the UK – even with Brexit – so who knows.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

Posts: 12620 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
North East Quine

Curious beastie
# 13049

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I'm sure that the majority of Scots don't want another vote so soon after the last, but many (most?) feel this is a situation foisted on us by the Brexit vote.
Posts: 6339 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007  |  IP: Logged
Cathscats
Shipmate
# 17827

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I agree with NEQ. Last time there was an effervescence and excitement about things, but this time there is more a sense of business-like necessity,

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"...damp hands and theological doubts - the two always seem to go together..." (O. Douglas, "The Setons")

Posts: 145 | From: Central Highlands | Registered: Sep 2013  |  IP: Logged
PaulTH*
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# 320

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quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
I'm sure that the majority of Scots don't want another vote so soon after the last, but many (most?) feel this is a situation foisted on us by the Brexit vote.

I disagree. I think a vote is being forced on them by the SNP. They originally claimed to be calling a referendum because of Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will. Now they acknowledge that independent or not, Scotland will be leaving the EU anyway. They haven't even promised that Scotland will apply for EU membership. This is because they know that some 400,000 SNP voters voted for Brexit. So the whole basis for calling the vote is spurious. Although the SNP put it in their manifesto last year, they are a minority government. The Greens, who will support the SNP in tomorrow's vote in the Scottish Parliament, only said that they'd support if they believed that it's what the Scottish people want. The polls indicate that it isn't the case. So there is no clear mandate to call another referendum and the basis on which the SNP want to call it is complete fiction. It's just another bite at the independence cherry and nothing to do with the EU. I hope Nicola gets the same dollop of egg on her face as Alex Salmond did in 2014. Though I suspect she'll win.

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Yours in Christ
Paul

Posts: 6383 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Jolly Jape
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# 3296

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quote:
This is because they know that some 400,000 SNP voters voted for Brexit. So the whole basis for calling the vote is spurious.
So because 40% of SNP voters voted for Brexit, the 60% who did not should be denied their aspirations, yet when 48% of voters in the whole UK voted to remain in the EU, there was a clear and unequivocal majority to leave? Dual standards, much?

I'm, I suppose, English, what with being born and bred in Manchester, though I prefer to think of myself as British. But there is no way, were I Scottish, that I would want to be dragged out of Europe by English votes, especially Tory English votes. There is history here, and I think that the overwhelming evidence is that the Scots will be shafted by the Tories now, as they always have been in the past. There are reasons for ABE.

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To those who have never seen the flow and ebb of God's grace in their lives, it means nothing. To those who have seen it, even fleetingly, even only once - it is life itself. (Adeodatus)

Posts: 3011 | From: A village of gardens | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Added to which, the reasons why people in Scotland voted Leave (according to the polls) are subtly different from England. Leave votes in Scotland were strongest in coastal communities, reflecting concerns over fishing. Concerns over immigration are much smaller. To a large extent, Leave in Scotland was to leave the EU (and the fisheries policies) but remain in the Single Market. Though, since the question didn't allow voters to differentiate between the two main options for leaving the EU it's impossible to say just how strong that camp is - in England as much as in Scotland. As I've repeatedly said, if Mrs May opted for a Brexit that leaves the UK within the Single Market (in some Norway-like status) then there would be no support for Indyref2 because that would be close enough to the desires of the people of Scotland (and, indeed, the majority in the UK as a whole).

If an independent Scotland decides not to rejoin the EU, or to only go as far as joining Norway etal within the Single Market but outwith the EU, then that will be the decision of the people of Scotland. Rather than having a referendum we didn't want foisted on us, for that referendum to be so mis-managed that the result is effectively meaningless, and then for an English government to inflict a Brexit that has only minority support in the UK upon Scotland. At least Scotland has a chance to be rid of a government that had no regard for democracy. The people of England, Wales and NI are rather stuck with it.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 31979 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
and then for an English government to inflict a Brexit that has only minority support in the UK upon Scotland.

It is simply untrue that a the PM's Brexit has minority support. A poll shows that although 90% want to retain free trade with the EU after Brexit, 82% of Leave voters and 58% of Remain voters think EU migrants should be treated the same as non-EU. This is the problem which faces the UK negotiating team. These requirements are conflicting, given that the EU insists on the four freedoms as the basis of a trade deal. This is why hard Brexit will come from the EU, not from the UK.

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Yours in Christ
Paul

Posts: 6383 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
A poll shows that ...

... a lot of people are misinformed.

For example "A total of 77 per cent of Leave voters do not want EU migrants to be able to claim welfare benefits in Britain", which is great. Because, EU migrants are already unable to claim welfare benefits in the UK unless they have worked here for sufficient time to earn the right to those benefits.

And, "82 per cent of Leave voters and 58 per cent of Remain voters wanted EU migrants to be treated in the same way as non-EU migrants." Which isn't that different to current situation. Non-EU migrants need a visa, which EU migrants don't. But, once here both EU and non-EU migrants cannot access welfare payments, require insurance (or payment arrangements from their own country) for treatment on the NHS, can only live here without employment if they have the resources to do so without recourse to UK public funds.

If those are what people wanting to control immigration want, then they have them - without leaving the EU, let alone the single market.

quote:
This is why hard Brexit will come from the EU, not from the UK.
No, it will come because the UK government wants to make a symbolic break with freedom of movement, which will have no significant "benefit" (even to those who have objections to immigration beyond pure racism). Hard Brexit, a break-up of the UK, and all the economic damage of WTO trade with the EU ... it's a big price to pay for a mere symbolic statement that only really benefits those who don't want to see dark skins and hear Polish voices in Britain.

[ 22. March 2017, 20:25: Message edited by: Alan Cresswell ]

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 31979 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged



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