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Source: (consider it) Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
mr cheesy
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We need to be careful what we say about this, but the one thing that we can say without being prejudicial is that a Tory candidate standing in the General Election is being charged with election expenses allegations relating to events in 2015 and the case is due to be heard before a magistrate in July.

This is obviously a terrible look for the Conservative party so close to the GE.

[ 02. June 2017, 11:28: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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Doc Tor
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May sent Justine Greening to Woman's Hour, rather than turn up herself.

The outrage against the pat-a-cake interview is real...

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Forward the New Republic

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Karl: Liberal Backslider
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Recent poll puts Labour ahead in voting intention, but behind when factoring in likelihood of voting. Which leads to a likely outcome of getting not the government we want, but the one which too many people let other people choose for them.

The message that needs to get out there is For Goodness' Sake Vote. Even if it goes Tory at least it's because it's what the country collectively wanted, not what they just let happen.

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Might as well ask the bloody cat.

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
And even fewer know it's a magazine?

They call themselves a newspaper.
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

This is obviously a terrible look for the Conservative party so close to the GE.

The problem is that it's the kind of obtruse charge that is hard to explain in simple sound bites and you are still dependent on the mainly right-wing press to run with it. I assume they'll complicate it and make the charge that everyone was doing it.

[If they adopted a uniform level of rhetoric we'd have been flooded with 'Theresa May sent the Manchester bomber to terrorist training camp' headlines by now]

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quetzalcoatl
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There have been quite a few stories about MI5 helping Libyan radicals go to fight Gaddafi, and return, and go again, and so on. And also that they were armed by the West.

This is very like the mujaheddin in Afghan, but I suspect it will disappear as a story. No point in embarrassing people, is there?

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Marvin the Martian

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I'm off on cricket tour next week (so shall be voting by proxy), so I'll say this now:

This Conservative election campaign has been quite simply the worst one I have ever seen from any serious party. Some of the policies in their manifesto are just shit, and while Labour's policy costings are of debatable accuracy at least they have some. And it's clear that May is running scared of anything even approaching a face-to-face debate with any of the other party leaders, which makes all the guff about "strong and stable leadership" a pile of total horseshit.

Honestly, part of me wouldn't be surprised if the Tories are secretly trying to lose the election so that they can stitch someone else up with the job of negotiating Brexit.

If it weren't for their tuition fees policy (which I consider to be an utterly terrible idea that would probably cause major job losses in higher education, which not coincidentally is the sector in which I work), I'd probably already have decided to go with Labour. Even with that policy there's a decent chance I'll do so anyway. Or maybe the Lib Dems.

Of course, I'm in an extremely safe seat so it won't really matter which way I vote. But it's the principle of the thing, dammit.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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I think Corbyn's essential straightforwardness has come to the fore in this election campaign. He's a man with faults who has goofed a few times and has made a few mistakes over a political lifetime. But he looks genuine. He looks like the guy in the queue at the chipshop, he looks like the man tending his vegetables in his allotment, he looks like someone who says what he believes and believes what he says.

In contrast May looks and talks like a robot, has come out with some unbelievable shite that makes one wonder who on earth she is trying to get to elect her, bends with the wind, blames others for her self-inflicted political injuries, is running from the press and generally seems to think that she is a vote-loser rather than a vote-winner.

Corbyn is unlikely to become Prime Minister, I think even if there is a hung parliament the cost of some kind of coalition will be that Labour get a different leader. But he has come out of this process as a genuine person and a principled politician in the midst of a bunch of other people who are neither.

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arse

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stonespring
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Whether or not it is likely, suppose there is a hung parliament and the Tories aren't able to pass a confidence vote with NI Unionists and/or (gasp!) UKIP (if UKIP even gets a seat). What kind of agreements are possible in such a situation, and which would be likely? All the "progressive" parties might be terrified of being punished like the LibDems were for supporting the Tories, but might one or more of them prop up a Tory minority government, maybe with a different PM, given the right price exacted from the Tories on Brexit, devolution, or something else? Is a Labour minority government with the support of a motley crew of other parties really possible, even if Corbyn lets someone else be PM? Or would there just be another election?
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Arethosemyfeet
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Short answer: nobody knows. A lot depends on the arithmetic of the new HoC (and let's not put May in charge of that, given the 6.8p breakfast debacle).
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Doublethink.
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Without a coalition, they'd probably look for a 'confidence and supply' agreement. In which a smaller party agrees to not back a no confidence motion, and not to vote down the budget.

(I don't think anyone would be up for a third election.)

[ 03. June 2017, 06:59: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Rumour says that Amber Rudd is being lined up to replace Phil Hammond as Chancellor in the event of a Tory victory.

What an excellent choice. I can think of no better paragon of probity to manage the nation's finances.

On current showing I think it's more likely the 1922 committee are lining her up to be PM.
[Eek!] Assuming this isn't just idle speculation among journalists desperate for an angle - what on earth is the logic behind this?

Most Tory leadership hopefuls, even if I don't like them I can understand what they're for. Some of them strongly want what the base wants (IDS, Gove, Leadsom), some give the illusion of being able to run things (Howard, Cameron [I did say illusion), some have some property that might make them appeal beyond the usual Tory voters (Johnson, Crabbe). But Rudd has shown up on my radar for a.) her cough cough cough 'successful career in the City before entering politics', b.) wanting companies to declare what percentage of their employees are foreign and then immediately changing her mind, c.) not understanding encryption, d.) thinking 'necessary hashtags' is a sensible thing to say. She appears to have no positive qualities whatsoever.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Mr Clingford
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At least there are only 5 days to go.

But I will lose sleep over this, as I think I will stay up.

[ 03. June 2017, 07:30: Message edited by: Mr Clingford ]

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Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.

If only.

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Boogie

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A comment after a Guardian article -
quote:
May increasingly comes across as spineless, timorous, robotic and pre-fabricated by the Tory electoral machine. Every smile and every expression of concern seems feigned, and she goes to great lengths to avoid accountability to the British people. She is no patriot and is the antithesis of what this county deserves as a leader
That's it! He expressions simply do not look genuine - rather like Trump, she pulls her face into various positions 'smile' 'sympathy' etc but none of it rings true.

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Garden. Room. Walk

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rolyn
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Err 'The expressions'?
Thought we were talking about the other one for a minute [Biased]

May has got 4 days to get her act together otherwise Britain is looking at a hung Parliament and a political dog's dinner.

When the Daily Mail puts up a headline May has Blown it you know something hasn't gone to plan.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Rocinante
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This election may well be turning into the one the Tories really didn't want - essentially a re-run of the EU referendum, with leavers voting Tory and remainers now coalescing around Labour. It's taken a while, but now that the campaign has shown Corbyn not be the baby-eating two-headed monster portrayed in the Tory press, people are more comfortable voting for Labour and their "softest Brexit possible" approach.

Last night's debate seemed to be to proceed on fairly predictable lines, with May getting grilled on social care/NHS, Corbyn on defence. The difference is, I don't foresee many floating voters agonising in the voting booth about Corbyn's lack of commitment to a retaliatory nuclear strike, whereas many of them will be very concerned about care and health.

Still expecting a Tory win, but not a landslide. May to resign for health reasons in a year or two, Heaven knows who we'll get then.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:

Still expecting a Tory win, but not a landslide. May to resign for health reasons in a year or two, Heaven knows who we'll get then.

In which case the new leader will face exactly the same problems of legitimacy that May allegedly did before calling the election.

Not to mention that it looks increasingly true that once you got past Cameron, you ran out of senior Tories that aren't weird/bizarre in some way.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
Whether or not it is likely, suppose there is a hung parliament and the Tories aren't able to pass a confidence vote with NI Unionists and/or (gasp!) UKIP (if UKIP even gets a seat). What kind of agreements are possible in such a situation, and which would be likely? All the "progressive" parties might be terrified of being punished like the LibDems were for supporting the Tories, but might one or more of them prop up a Tory minority government, maybe with a different PM, given the right price exacted from the Tories on Brexit, devolution, or something else? Is a Labour minority government with the support of a motley crew of other parties really possible, even if Corbyn lets someone else be PM? Or would there just be another election?

My guess is that since most Commons votes don't involve every MP (and in fact the chamber is too small to accommodate all of them), then the hassle of making pacts with parties with only single-digit numbers of seats is probably not worth the extra votes you would gain.

So if Conservatives > Labour + SNP, then expect a Conservative minority government.
If Labour + SNP > Conservatives, expect a Labour-SNP agreement that totally isn't a pact, oh no sir.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Labour-SNP agreement that totally isn't a pact, oh no sir.

I have absolutely no idea why people are so antipathetic to this idea - the mere thought of Sturgeon seems to make otherwise level-headed people come out in hives.
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Not to mention that it looks increasingly true that once you got past Cameron, you ran out of senior Tories that aren't weird/bizarre in some way.

That seems to imply that Cameron wasn't weird/bizarre in some way.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Labour-SNP agreement that totally isn't a pact, oh no sir.

I have absolutely no idea why people are so antipathetic to this idea - the mere thought of Sturgeon seems to make otherwise level-headed people come out in hives.
It's an arrangement that makes some sense. A fair chunk of the Labour manifesto is already in place in Scotland (eg: no university tuition fees) or consistent with the SNP manifesto. There would, of course, be a price from the SNP to pay for such an arrangement - there would need to be a recognition of the powers of the Scottish Government in relation to Scottish affairs (in particular about calling a referendum on independence), and there may also need to be a concession on any renewal of Trident including developing an operational base somewhere not in Scotland.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Labour-SNP agreement that totally isn't a pact, oh no sir.

I have absolutely no idea why people are so antipathetic to this idea - the mere thought of Sturgeon seems to make otherwise level-headed people come out in hives.
I agree. I have never met any in real life though (because obviously my pool of acquaintances is totally representative of British life) and I do wonder if someone pulled an exceptionally skewed focus group.

The alternative is that there are actual people out there whose order of voting preference, if available, would be 1.) Labour, 2.) Conservative, 3.) Labour-SNP coalition, which is just bizarre to me.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Alan Cresswell

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Politics sometimes makes for strange behaviour. There are some people for which the Union is so important that they would vote anyone ahead of the SNP. And, there's the "Rangers Effect" which has solid Scottish Labour voters switching to the Tories because Corbyn once talked to Sinn Fein.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Politics sometimes makes for strange behaviour. There are some people for which the Union is so important that they would vote anyone ahead of the SNP. And, there's the "Rangers Effect" which has solid Scottish Labour voters switching to the Tories because Corbyn once talked to Sinn Fein.

While ignoring the fact that a Tory government was talking, nay negotiating, with the Sinn Fein leadership too.
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Alan Cresswell

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But, Tories have never suggested support for a united Ireland (though, their push for Brexit at any cost is quite likely to lead to that result). Corbyn has, reportedly, and consequently lost support in parts of Glasgow that should be solid Labour.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Alan Cresswell

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Meanwhile, the "strong and stable" one has once more turned around mid-campaign. This time deciding not to tackle the housing crisis. Which may be a blessing, with their form of "strong and stable" foundations houses they build may be prone to subsidence.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
But, Tories have never suggested support for a united Ireland (though, their push for Brexit at any cost is quite likely to lead to that result). Corbyn has, reportedly, and consequently lost support in parts of Glasgow that should be solid Labour.

Wait. You're blaming Corbyn for losing the sectarian Orange Order types? If pandering to them is what's needed then the seats aren't worth the price.
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Bishops Finger
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These types?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEsFtiruIok

If so, I agree!

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Alan Cresswell

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More of an explanation of why, within one part of the UK population, you get the apparently surprising shift of loyalty with communities of people who should be (and have been) strong Labour voters turning Tory. Of course, not in enough numbers that there's a chance of Glasgow South or East turning blue next week, but enough of an effect to explain why the Tories got enough votes last month to return some councillors. I would say probably more of a win by the Tories running a very strong Unionist campaign than a loss by Labour not try to hold onto those voters.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Arethosemyfeet
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You don't think the SNP eating most of Labour's vote in Glasgow might have galvanised hardline proddy hearts in a more ardently unionist direction regardless of Labour's actions?
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Alan Cresswell

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You would need to explain why a reaction to the SNP would push people to the Tories rather than equally anti-Independence Labour. If the only question was IndyRef2 there was no reason why that should be a Tory gain, unless there was also a good reason to desert Labour.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Politics sometimes makes for strange behaviour. There are some people for which the Union is so important that they would vote anyone ahead of the SNP. And, there's the "Rangers Effect" which has solid Scottish Labour voters switching to the Tories because Corbyn once talked to Sinn Fein.

I can see that playing out in Scotland but I thought the focus groups that so frightened Mr Miliband in 2015 were of English Labour voters who were scared of the SNP. I might be misremembering.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
You would need to explain why a reaction to the SNP would push people to the Tories rather than equally anti-Independence Labour. If the only question was IndyRef2 there was no reason why that should be a Tory gain, unless there was also a good reason to desert Labour.

"Conservative and Unionist Party". Unionism is right in the tory DNA. Plenty of pro-independence folk, like me, will vote Labour. I can't imagine many will vote tory.
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ACK
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:

Still expecting a Tory win, but not a landslide. May to resign for health reasons in a year or two, Heaven knows who we'll get then.

Looking at May 6 words come to mind: 'Don't you think she looks tired.'

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'It's the only thing that worries me about going to Heaven. Would I ever get used to the height.' Norman Clegg

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by ACK:
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:

Still expecting a Tory win, but not a landslide. May to resign for health reasons in a year or two, Heaven knows who we'll get then.

Looking at May 6 words come to mind: 'Don't you think she looks tired.'
Not especially. What are you suggesting?
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Doc Tor
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They're alluding to this.

In other news, you can pick your poll results tonight, with anything from a ComRes lead of 12 points for the Tories, to a Survation lead of just 1.

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Forward the New Republic

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
They're alluding to this.

Thanks.

quote:
In other news, you can pick your poll results tonight, with anything from a ComRes lead of 12 points for the Tories, to a Survation lead of just 1.

The problem with this apparent collapse in the Tory lead is that, so far as I'm aware, it hasn't been reflected in the experiences of Labour or Tory campaigners. You'd expect such a big swing to Labour to be noticeable from canvass returns, etc. but it doesn't seem to be the case.

I don't want to disappoint you chaps too much, but I don't think this shift is actually happening.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
They're alluding to this.

Thanks.

quote:
In other news, you can pick your poll results tonight, with anything from a ComRes lead of 12 points for the Tories, to a Survation lead of just 1.

The problem with this apparent collapse in the Tory lead is that, so far as I'm aware, it hasn't been reflected in the experiences of Labour or Tory campaigners. You'd expect such a big swing to Labour to be noticeable from canvass returns, etc. but it doesn't seem to be the case.

I don't want to disappoint you chaps too much, but I don't think this shift is actually happening.

Got your hands on the canvass returns have you? Do give us some details, I'm struggling to find anything.

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Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Louise
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# 30

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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
You would need to explain why a reaction to the SNP would push people to the Tories rather than equally anti-Independence Labour. If the only question was IndyRef2 there was no reason why that should be a Tory gain, unless there was also a good reason to desert Labour.

"Conservative and Unionist Party". Unionism is right in the tory DNA. Plenty of pro-independence folk, like me, will vote Labour. I can't imagine many will vote tory.
Unless you're in Ian Murray's seat, or a very safe SNP seat, in which case have at it, that unfortunately could help the Tories. Scottish Labour are not like UK Labour, their leaders mostly hate Jeremy Corbyn and they're even running paper candidates where they hope the Tories can beat the SNP which will assist the Tories.

Unionist parties 'working against SNP in key seats'

which could end up depriving Jeremy Corbyn of power (if the youth turn out holds and those polls are at all right about us being in hung parliament territory - every seat counts.)

If you're in an SNP/Tory marginal, please vote SNP unless you want to help Theresa May. If you're in a Lib Dem/SNP marginal remember Tim Farron has utterly refused to rule out another coalition with the Tories.

If I was in England I would vote Labour even though I abhor their Brexit policy because Tory policies are killing people - disabled people found fit to work when they are deathly ill. If you can help an avowed non-Tory MP fight off a Tory, please do so. Everyday I see how much worse Tory policies have made life for my partner's son and other young people - who are deprived of rights and support that we could take for granted as we were growing up. The old keep voting to hurt the young. It's dreadful.

Remember what happened with Trump - his margin of victory in key states could have been wiped out if Jill Stein voters had voted for Hilary. Don't make that mistake - this is a hideously cruel government - people's lives depend on fettering them or getting them out. If you can help keep a Tory out, please vote to do so.

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Posts: 6918 | From: Scotland | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Got your hands on the canvass returns have you?



Only my own, obvs. And they're submitted so that they can be inputted.

quote:
Do give us some details, I'm struggling to find anything.
The Guido Fawkes blog has mentioned this.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009  |  IP: Logged
Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
Scottish Labour are not like UK Labour, their leaders mostly hate Jeremy Corbyn and they're even running paper candidates where they hope the Tories can beat the SNP which will assist the Tories.

That's a matter of framing, isn't it? You could equally well say that they're running paper candidates where they don't want the Tories to beat the SNP.
It depends on whether you think the Labour vote in Scotland cares more about unionism or about progressivism.

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Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

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# 944

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I hope this is not crass, I will apologise if it is or if any are offended, but do terror attacks favour the Tories? Are they seen as "tough" in comparison to Labour? Will some people seek assurance/comfort in a conservative government?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
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# 1984

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It didn't seem to make a huge difference last time.

I think competing narratives cancel each other out. Gov, lots of airtime looking in charge and projecting strong on security message - vs multiple terror attacks on their watch after resource cuts to related services. Net effect neutral.

We've known terrorist attacks were likely for years, and during a campaign is an obvious time for increased attempts.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Got your hands on the canvass returns have you?



Only my own, obvs. And they're submitted so that they can be inputted.

quote:
Do give us some details, I'm struggling to find anything.
The Guido Fawkes blog has mentioned this.

Speaking as a canvasser, I think it's difficult to tell because most people are terribly polite. I suspect that many don't say, won't say are voting against - and many who don't respond when you knock on the door just don't want to talk to you, rather than actually being out. So the responses you do get show significant bias.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
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# 1984

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So main parties are suspending campaigning for one day. UKIP on the other hand are carrying on.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Speaking as a canvasser, I think it's difficult to tell because most people are terribly polite. I suspect that many don't say, won't say are voting against - and many who don't respond when you knock on the door just don't want to talk to you, rather than actually being out. So the responses you do get show significant bias.

I can't really disagree with that. On an individual level. But political parties, both nationally and in a particular constituency, will be able to get a feel for how things are going based on the responses coming in. Those responses don't appear to reflect the narrowing in the polls.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009  |  IP: Logged
Karl: Liberal Backslider
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# 76

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Flawed as polls are, they are at least based on quantified data, so I'll trust them over the subjective feelings of canvassers, tbh.

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Might as well ask the bloody cat.

Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
rolyn
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# 16840

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
So main parties are suspending campaigning for one day. UKIP on the other hand are carrying on.

And by doing so Ukip will connect with the pitchfork army in the same way that they did over Brexit.
The main Parties should continue in the face of these events.

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Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011  |  IP: Logged
Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
Flawed as polls are, they are at least based on quantified data, so I'll trust them over the subjective feelings of canvassers, tbh.

Do you think that there can be a sea change of opinion, so great that it cuts a significant Tory lead to almost level-pegging, that can occur without the campaign teams of either major party noticing?

The Saturday night polls show Tory leads of between 1% and 12% so I guess at the moment you can pick whatever poll suits your preferred narrative.

Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009  |  IP: Logged
Karl: Liberal Backslider
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# 76

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
Flawed as polls are, they are at least based on quantified data, so I'll trust them over the subjective feelings of canvassers, tbh.

Do you think that there can be a sea change of opinion, so great that it cuts a significant Tory lead to almost level-pegging, that can occur without the campaign teams of either major party noticing?


In a universe where Marvin's talking about possibly voting Labour? Yes.

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Might as well ask the bloody cat.

Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged



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