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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Do you think that there can be a sea change of opinion, so great that it cuts a significant Tory lead to almost level-pegging, that can occur without the campaign teams of either major party noticing?
You seem to be reading rather a lot into your own personal experience in a specific constituency and the claims of a right-wing blog reporting unnamed sources.
Nobody is claiming that any swing is consistent across the board and in all constituencies (because that would be stupid); the methods of the pollsters are far more nuanced than that.
quote:
The Saturday night polls show Tory leads of between 1% and 12% so I guess at the moment you can pick whatever poll suits your preferred narrative.
Yes, I think this just shows that the situation is incredibly hard to predict. But then the best polls say as much and include a wide margin of error.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I have colleague undecided about switching his vote from Tory to labour, was pro-May because he thought her 'strong' now is unsure. I know him quite well and would never have guessed he'd have voted Tory - I find his attitude really odd, but presumably it was what Lynton Crosby had been banking on and maybe more common than I'd realised.
Conversely another colleague describes Corbyn as 'too clever by half' and thinks the manifesto should have been boiled down to a message of two or three key points. That he is an example of the out of touch liberal elite.
This is the first election I've canvassed, what I mainly learning is that people think about politics in many ways that I would not have anticipated. Humbling really.
I really am not sure who will win, I am in a really atypical constituency so it's no guide.
What I would like to know about the polls, is are they finding similar raw data but ,asking different assumptions - in which case the results hang on the difference in turn out rate between the old and young - or whether their raw data is substantially different which would suggest volatile electoral mood or problems with sampling.
[ 04. June 2017, 12:53: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
I hope this is not crass, I will apologise if it is or if any are offended, but do terror attacks favour the Tories? Are they seen as "tough" in comparison to Labour? Will some people seek assurance/comfort in a conservative government?
It's very difficult for a ruling party seeking re-election to make too much hay over this, because all this shit is going down on their watch.
The ultimate rebuttal to "Only we can save you" is "You've made a piss-poor job of it in the last three months."
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
May is in quite a difficult position in at least one respect on this. Trump has gone on twitter to attack the London Mayor for saying that there is "no reason to be alarmed!"
If she says nothing, she looks like she is acquiescing in the bullying of an elected official by a foreign leader.
If she supports Trump, she looks like she is attempting to gain politicial points by attacking a Labour mayor.
If she attacks Trump's tweets as irresponsible, she risks upsetting her own tub-thumpers.
She's most likely to say nothing, but I really hope she gives support to Sadiq Khan and says that she's not going to be taking lessons from the White House on protecting people.
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arse
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Trump is quote-mining in any case. Khan made quite a long statement, which included words such as 'shocked' and 'angry', but he is not saying, nothing to worry about, rather we will carry on and will not be cowed. Misrepresentations like this are not helpful.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Trump wouldn't have condemned London's mayor had he been a white guy. End of.
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Yes, it's quite likely that Trump cannot cognitively process the idea of a Muslim mayor in London. After all, Muslims are suspicious people, so why have we elected somebody like that?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Sarasa
Shipmate
# 12271
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Posted
Can't someone talk Trump's phone away from him or at least delete his Twitter account. Such remarks as the ones he has just made about the London Bridge attack aren't exactly helpful.
Tp get back to the election, I too do wish there had been more discussion of Brexit. I'm none the wiser now than I was six weeks ago. In fact the only things I've learned so far are that May isn't as strong and stable as she claiemd to be and that Corbyn comes across as far more reasonable than I thought.
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'I guess things didn't go so well tonight, but I'm trying. Lord, I'm trying.' Charlie (Harvey Keitel) in Mean Streets.
Posts: 2035 | From: London | Registered: Jan 2007
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Luigi
Shipmate
# 4031
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
What I would like to know about the polls, is are they finding similar raw data but ,asking different assumptions - in which case the results hang on the difference in turn out rate between the old and young - or whether their raw data is substantially different which would suggest volatile electoral mood or problems with sampling.
My understanding is that the polls are finding the same things. The differences are all about different methodologies used to correct for problems with polls last UK general election. The young politically engaged were much more likely to answer polls. But many of them didn't vote in the end.
Some polls address this by asking how likely they are to vote and then adjust accordingly. Others regards that as still likely to overestimate the youth vote so they correct for demography. These pollsters are banking that the likelihood they will vote will be more accurately reflected by age etc than by whether they claim they will vote.
Having said that they are all are counting on Corbyn having energised the young vote to some degree - the question is how much.
Posts: 752 | Registered: Feb 2003
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I don't think that Brexit was meant to be discussed. This is partly because the UK government is not sure what it wants - it veers between hard Brexit, and some supposed 'frictionless' trade deal. The latter is probably preferred, but then logically, we should enter EEA, which apparently is now taboo, as the Ultras are agin.
But also, the implications of various deals, for example, no deal, are absolutely horrendous, and probably it's best not to frighten the horses, or in this case, the voters.
The nasty stuff can come later, when the election is over.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
duplicate.
[ 04. June 2017, 15:38: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
<tangent/>
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Yes, it's quite likely that Trump cannot cognitively process the idea of a Muslim mayor in London.
He can process it perfectly well. He can process that criticising the mayor will play very well with his base, and I'm sure it does. That is all he cares about. IME His tweets on the latest attacks have been cunning, not dumb.
</tangent>
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Wishing the UK whatever's best in the election, and some good way to prevent terrorism.
![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Hot news - PM makes fierce criticism of previous efforts to control extremism and terrorism. Really, whoever was in charge of this in the last few years has done a shit job, she implied.
Will she call on them to resign?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Hot news - PM makes fierce criticism of previous efforts to control extremism and terrorism. Really, whoever was in charge of this in the last few years has done a shit job, she implied.
Will she call on them to resign?
Going back to the time when the British government encouraged British-Libyan exiles to go to Libya to finish off Gaddafi?
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I think the last 6 years should provide a decent timeline.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
In the US, following a terrorist attack, comments like Corbyn's laying blame at foreign policy and cuts to police would be widely condemned (granted, a politician like Trump would have made such criticisms anyway, not that I think that Corbyn is like Trump). Are comments like Corbyn's more acceptable in UK political discourse? Are they likely to win Labour votes?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I think it is less seen as opportunism, because he'd already made these arguments in his Chatham house speech and put pledges about increases in police numbers into the manifesto. So it's not like he'd just come up with this stuff *after* the terrorist attacks. Also we are in an election campaign, we have to be able to debate these things.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
And of course, the right wing will be going hell for leather at Corbyn, 'soft on terrorism' and so on. All is fair in love and politics.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
So it's not like he'd just come up with this stuff *after* the terrorist attacks.
On shoot-to-kill, it appears he has. He's previously expressed doubts about a shoot-to-kill policy (the video of which went viral over the weekend) and now Mr Corbyn has tried to find a form of words to skate over the issue.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Although that goes back to a confusion, or was it a lie? - about which shoot-to-kill is meant. It was used in N. Ireland to refer to shooting suspects, and this was quite different from shooting terrorists today. In fact, a complaint was upheld against the BBC, I think, for a confusing report.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
So it's not like he'd just come up with this stuff *after* the terrorist attacks.
On shoot-to-kill, it appears he has. He's previously expressed doubts about a shoot-to-kill policy (the video of which went viral over the weekend) and now Mr Corbyn has tried to find a form of words to skate over the issue.
Haven't seen the video.
But there is a terminology problem.
Shoot to kill in practical terms simply means shoot. The debate centres over whether to use deadly force or other, 'less than lethal' means to apprehend a suspect.
The debate has changed by the nature of the increase in terrorist attacks.
And the response issues have become more complicated, but need to be handled with care. If training centres around how to respond to terrorists, non-terrorist situations will result in more deaths as well. One only need look at the differences in policing between the US and the UK to see this.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Well, Corbyn was stitched up by Kuennsberg in the original interview. She asked him a question, and then later reported that he'd answered a different question, which he hadn't. She should have been sacked, but then anti-Corbyn bias was/is rife.
In fact, we don't have a shoot to kill policy, unless an armed attack is going on, or is imminent. Corbyn has supported that.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
On shoot-to-kill, it appears he has.
It really doesn't, unless you believe Kussenberg asked the question she said she asked but which she didn't.
In any case; I notice your purported horror of people associating with terrorists a few pages back is now strangely muted on the subject of an actual Home Secretary who actually ran a programme which actually gave material aid to actual terrorists.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
I'm not sure what, specifically, you're referring to...?
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I'm not sure what, specifically, you're referring to...?
There you go.
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Arethosemyfeet
Shipmate
# 17047
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
So it's not like he'd just come up with this stuff *after* the terrorist attacks.
On shoot-to-kill, it appears he has. He's previously expressed doubts about a shoot-to-kill policy (the video of which went viral over the weekend) and now Mr Corbyn has tried to find a form of words to skate over the issue.
I see the fact that the video in question was investigated by the BBC Trust and found to misrepresent Corbyn's views passed you by.
Posts: 2933 | From: Hebrides | Registered: Apr 2012
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
Well, I've just come back from a very damp Corbyn rally, where several thousand people couldn't get into the main arena to join the several thousand who could.
I went partly to see what he was like in person. He's pretty much exactly like he is everywhere else. I don't know why I surprised by that, but there was no side, or front for that matter.
And given that he's been in the region all day, and this rally was probably the biggest political demonstration for years, the BBC website... chooses not to mention it. At all. ![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif)
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
Just seen a report on the news, film of people running up a hill to get in, and of a crowd listening to him.
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Are you talking about the Gateshead rally ? (It was covered v briefly on the live election campaign feed - but no crowd shots.)
[ 05. June 2017, 21:30: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
So it's not like he'd just come up with this stuff *after* the terrorist attacks.
On shoot-to-kill, it appears he has. He's previously expressed doubts about a shoot-to-kill policy (the video of which went viral over the weekend) and now Mr Corbyn has tried to find a form of words to skate over the issue.
I see the fact that the video in question was investigated by the BBC Trust and found to misrepresent Corbyn's views passed you by.
I believe this is the report of the BBC Trusts investigation of an interview on BBC TV and here it is on the BBC Website.
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Are you talking about the Gateshead rally ? (It was covered v briefly on the live election campaign feed - but no crowd shots.)
Yes. Chi Onwurah (Newcastle Central MP-to-be?) took this, and this, and this.
(I'm actually in the second: I spotted myself in the middle distance).
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Are you talking about the Gateshead rally ? (It was covered v briefly on the live election campaign feed - but no crowd shots.)
Yes. Chi Onwurah (Newcastle Central MP-to-be?) took this, and this, and this.
(I'm actually in the second: I spotted myself in the middle distance).
I see you! ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
Mainly young people - are we in for a big surprise?
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
There were an awful lot of young people there. Probably half. A far cry from the same hoary old trades unionists turning out (been to a few of those, too).
We'll see. I'm not calling it, other than this: the Conservative campaign, such as it was, was an unmitigated disaster from start to finish, and they've still got two days to shoot themselves a few more times in the feet. If people still want to vote for them after that, then fuck it, we'll get the government we deserve.
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Young people are far more likely to share their opinions on social media - what the BBC do will make little difference to their vote imo.
They also like to hunt in packs, so there may just be a critical mass to tip it. We'll see. I usually vote Green, but it will be Labour this time - too much rides on the result.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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romanesque
Shipmate
# 18785
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Posted
It's been remarkable to see Labour turn things round from hopeless cause when the election was announced, to possible contender with two days to go. Whether the disconnect between chatterati and grass roots will get the party past the winning post as with Brexit, is hard to say.
As a life long social conservative tribal Labour voter I can't raise much enthusiasm for any current party. The small c conservative Labour vote used to be a massive constituency, now you could be excused for thinking it was an oxymoron.
Posts: 119 | Registered: May 2017
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
Mainly young people - are we in for a big surprise?
Only, I think, if you're expecting a Labour victory.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Mark Wuntoo
Shipmate
# 5673
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
..... I usually vote Green, but it will be Labour this time - too much rides on the result.
I'm happy to take your place. I am in one of the safest Labour seats and I hope he gets back in but I can afford to vote Green as a protest against FPTP.
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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.
Posts: 1950 | From: Somewhere else. | Registered: Mar 2004
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
Yes - I usually vote LibDem, but I may vote Labour this time.
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
My Lib Dem/Remain-supporting father has decided to lend his vote tactically to Labour this time and is encouraging his friends to do the same. His constituency has been Tory since 2005, but you never know.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
Yes - I usually vote LibDem, but I may vote Labour this time.
I'm still torn about whether I can bring myself to do it....
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
I think I may vote tactically this time, which (sadly) means one less vote for the Greens. Were I living in Bristol or Brighton, however.....
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Sarasa
Shipmate
# 12271
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Posted
I live somewhere that was LibDem until the Tories scare campaign in 2015. Labour don't have a chance so I'm votoing LibDem. I think they may do better than the polls suggest as there are quite a few seats, certainly round here that have always been LibDem/Con marginals and if you factor in the strong remain vote in the referendum for this area it seems at least hopeful.
If there was proportional representation I'd probably vote Green, though I've come round to Corbyn far more than I thought I would.
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'I guess things didn't go so well tonight, but I'm trying. Lord, I'm trying.' Charlie (Harvey Keitel) in Mean Streets.
Posts: 2035 | From: London | Registered: Jan 2007
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
There we are.
Yes, had already assumed it was just a purely political point you were making, and you didn't actually care about the underlying issues.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
I'm surprised at how strong support for the Greens seems to be among politically vocal people on the Ship. Do people support the Greens over Labour and the LibDems merely because of dislike of Corbyn and anger over the 2010 Con-LibDem coalition? Or is it because the Greens are more of a consistently left wing party in general than modern Labour and the LibDems? Or is it because of environmentalism or some other issue?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
I'm surprised at how strong support for the Greens seems to be among politically vocal people on the Ship. Do people support the Greens over Labour and the LibDems merely because of dislike of Corbyn and anger over the 2010 Con-LibDem coalition? Or is it because the Greens are more of a consistently left wing party in general than modern Labour and the LibDems? Or is it because of environmentalism or some other issue?
For me, I'm a member of the Green Party for a variety of reasons - and, environmental issues isn't top of the list (it's probably the area I least agree with Green policy - there aren't many Greens in favour of nuclear power, even if I have concerns about some aspects of the current UK new build programme).
Top of my list is the concern for social and economic justice. Many of which are shared by Labour/SNP/LibDems, of course. Provision of affordable housing, especially building more council housing. Ending zero-hours contracts. A genuine living wage. Maintaining free university education (in Scotland, removing tuition fees down south). Investment in creation of new jobs in emerging low-carbon technologies. Maintaining the benefits of EU membership - including freedom of movement.
Then there is a distinctive view of democracy. An emphasis on local up politics. Ridding us of the archaic and not fit for purpose FPTP system.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Sarah G
Shipmate
# 11669
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
What I would like to know about the polls, is are they finding similar raw data but ,asking different assumptions...sampling.
My understanding is that the polls are finding the same things. The differences are all about different methodologies used to correct for problems with polls last UK general election. The young politically engaged were much more likely to answer polls. But many of them didn't vote in the end.
Some polls address this by asking how likely they are to vote and then adjust accordingly. Others regards that as still likely to overestimate the youth vote so they correct for demography. These pollsters are banking that the likelihood they will vote will be more accurately reflected by age etc than by whether they claim they will vote.
Having said that they are all are counting on Corbyn having energised the young vote to some degree - the question is how much.
This is correct and very well explained, but to add a couple of points:
There are different methodologies for collecting the sample- internet, phone etc.
(The most effective, apparently, is turning up at the door and keep returning until you get an answer. Gets the hard to reach voters).
There are also things like filtering out unregistered people; weighting voting intention figures to the age profile of 2015 voters, not the whole adult population; what you do with 'don't knows' etc.
Statistics fans can read more here.
Meanwhile, comrade Diane continues to add to the evidence about her suitability to high office link.
Part of me wants her to get the Home Secretary job, for the laughs. But then I think, this is serious stuff. Terrorism, organised crime, prisons and the like. And the prospect of her floundering out of her depth with it all really doesn't seem at all funny any more.
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
I read tonight tends to be the last big Hurrah before Thursday, with Wednesday being a quiet day traditionally. Is this custom, or regulation, or somerhing else? Or was the reporter wrong?
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Senior politicians spend the campaign mostly touring the country, but the last day of the campaign it's normal for them to return to their own constituency. They're just as busy, but speaking to the people of their constituency about local issues, so it looks quieter from a national point of view.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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