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Source: (consider it) Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

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Ah, thanks Alan.
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Though I note Corbyn is in Glasgow this morning, so he's still on the road and not back in London. I suspect that with the very short campaign, in particular with two breaks, the usual conventions have changed and national campaigning will run 'til the last minute.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Bishops Finger
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O well, at least it won't be long now before we know the worst. I just hope that there'll be a good turnout...and that there'll be no more terrorist attacks.

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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quetzalcoatl
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What a relief that it's over. A friend said to me, how about a hung parliament, and another election later this year? I think there would be riots in the streets.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Dafyd
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Abbott is stepping down for an indefinite period for health reasons. Fairly or unfairly she hasn't had a good election campaign. I wonder whether it will affect the voting?

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Abbott is stepping down for an indefinite period for health reasons. Fairly or unfairly she hasn't had a good election campaign. I wonder whether it will affect the voting?

I suspect the damage is done. Changing your Shadow Home Secretary the day before polling day looks weak and, even if Abbott is off the scene for a bit, Corbyn is still responsible for appointing her in the first place.
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Mark Wuntoo
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Abbott is stepping down for an indefinite period for health reasons. Fairly or unfairly she hasn't had a good election campaign. I wonder whether it will affect the voting?

I suspect the damage is done. Changing your Shadow Home Secretary the day before polling day looks weak and, even if Abbott is off the scene for a bit, Corbyn is still responsible for appointing her in the first place.
Not supporting her but trying to be fair. We don't know what her ill health is, do we? So how can we jump to conclusions about Corbyn's weakness or otherwise?

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

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Rocinante
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I'm sure many of us have seen a work colleague's performance become increasingly erratic, provoking much dark muttering and eye-rolling, only for that colleague to retire early or go on long-term sick leave. It's nobody's fault, and only a heartless scoundrel would try to make political capital out of it.
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romanesque
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
I'm sure many of us have seen a work colleague's performance become increasingly erratic, provoking much dark muttering and eye-rolling, only for that colleague to retire early or go on long-term sick leave. It's nobody's fault, and only a heartless scoundrel would try to make political capital out of it.

I'm not a Diane Abbot fan but her recent performances suggest she is not a well woman, and for that deserves our sympathies. Social media has made political life a duck shoot and anyone under par is fair game.
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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
I'm sure many of us have seen a work colleague's performance become increasingly erratic, provoking much dark muttering and eye-rolling, only for that colleague to retire early or go on long-term sick leave. It's nobody's fault, and only a heartless scoundrel would try to make political capital out of it.

Mrs. May has managed to be gracious about it, saying

"How Jeremy Corbyn manages his shadow cabinet is for him and I wish Diane a speedy recovery".

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I suspect the damage is done. Changing your Shadow Home Secretary the day before polling day looks weak and, even if Abbott is off the scene for a bit, Corbyn is still responsible for appointing her in the first place.

And who can we hold responsible for the unending torrent of death threats, racist slurs and sexist taunts directed at her?

I'd suspect most people would find such working conditions intolerable. Even you.

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Forward the New Republic

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Jane R
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lowlands_boy:
quote:
Mrs. May has managed to be gracious about it...
Or perhaps she is doing another of her famous U-turns. Certainly she has been contributing to the dog-pile in the not-too-distant past: see here.

It would certainly be... interesting... if she won the election and then had to step down because of this.

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
lowlands_boy:
quote:
Mrs. May has managed to be gracious about it...
Or perhaps she is doing another of her famous U-turns. Certainly she has been contributing to the dog-pile in the not-too-distant past: see here.

It would certainly be... interesting... if she won the election and then had to step down because of this.

I know Woolas got done for this kind of thing, but it seems to me if you pulled them up for things that they said, "live" during a campaign, very few of them would remain in their seats...

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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quetzalcoatl
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The YouGov projection is showing a hung parliament, with the seats as 302, 269, 12, 44 (Con, Lab, LibDem, SNP).

I am very skeptical about this. Torygraph has a Tory majority of 100, so take your pick.

If I was betting, I would go for Tory majority of 50-70.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

[ 07. June 2017, 16:19: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
And who can we hold responsible for the unending torrent of death threats, racist slurs and sexist taunts directed at her?

The people making such comments, presumably?
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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You didn't factor them in when deciding who was to be held responsible though, did you? [Disappointed]

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Forward the New Republic

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Has anybody ever seen such divergent polls? Torygraph has 100 Tory maj, YouGov a hung parliament. Somebody will get egg on t'fizzog in the polling dept.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Boogie

Boogie on down!
# 13538

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I'm going to bed at 10pm tomorrow. I'd rather like to keep TV and radio off the day after too - but curiosity will kill this cat, no doubt.

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Garden. Room. Walk

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Barnabas62
Host
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With quetzalcoatl. Increased Tory majority. They will do better than Labour out of folks moving from UKIP. But it will be closer than it might have been if the Tory party had run a more coherent campaign.

Odds are I think against a hung Parliament and even more against Labour getting more seats than the Tories.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Penny S
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Every time I've woken up after a voting exercise recently (including the States) it has been into a nightmare. I can't bring myself to stay awake. I dread a huge Tory lead.
Which is what I will get in my constituency. Last time the second place was taken by UKIP who overtook Labour. I cannot vote for those I would like to choose. I will change nothing whatever I do.
An MP and minister with a nasty side I had not suspected when I moved here will be back.

[ 07. June 2017, 18:29: Message edited by: Penny S ]

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stonespring
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Why are the polls showing such a poor performance for the LibDems when you would think that they could do well in cosmopolitan pro-remain seats? Is the pro-LibDem vote just too spread out and not concentrated enough in individual seats? Are people still unforgiving of the coalition? What about the LibDems traditional seats in the SW of England? Were they pro-Leave and therefore unlikely to support LibDems now? What about the seats the LibDems used to do well with in Metropolitan London?
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quetzalcoatl
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You would think at first glance that the LibDem policy of straight-off opposition to Brexit, and calling for another referendum, would be popular. But I wonder if that moment has passed. Most people are accepting that it will go ahead, in some form or other. Plus, the idea of another vote is really too nauseating. Whether or not they are still tarnished from the coalition, dunno.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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quetzalcoatl
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ICM poll has Tory majority of 96 - that YouGov poll looking more and more out of step.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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mr cheesy
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I think Tory majority of more than 100.

In other news: we're screwed.

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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Actually the polls seem to divide into two factions - ICM and ComRes have big Tory leads, but YouGov, Survation, Orb, have smaller leads.

So you have a spectrum from a hung parliament to a 100 majority for Tories.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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I'm just praying for a miracle.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Baptist Trainfan
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I tried that for the EU Referendum. It didn't work.
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Penny S
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It can't. The sort of people who are going to vote for the loss of the Britain we grew up, where people were cared for are not the sort to listen to the still small voice on the way into the polling station. They didn't hear in the referendum, or in the presidential election in the US, and they are very, very unlikely to hear tomorrow.
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stonespring
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Not sure how funny Brits would find this, but it gave me a chuckle:

http://www.politico.eu/article/the-morning-after-jeremy-corbyn-wins/

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
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Read this.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think Tory majority of more than 100.

I agree, though could possibly be as low as 80.

quote:
In other news: we're screwed.
Don't quite agree.
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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think Tory majority of more than 100.

I agree, though could possibly be as low as 80.

quote:
In other news: we're screwed.
Don't quite agree.

If we are poor, sick, jobless or old, we'll be screwed soon enough.
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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
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So it's now 8 June on your side of the Pond. Please be assured of my prayers Thursday. May you do a better job that we in the U.S. did last November.
[Votive]

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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Gee D
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quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:
It can't. The sort of people who are going to vote for the loss of the Britain we grew up, where people were cared for are not the sort to listen to the still small voice on the way into the polling station. They didn't hear in the referendum, or in the presidential election in the US, and they are very, very unlikely to hear tomorrow.

And you can blame the Labour Party and its selection of Corbyn for that. With a good, strong leader (and ignoring any effect a strongly Remain Labour leader would have had in the referendum) the most the Tories could reasonably have assumed was being in power until 2020. The chances of a revived Labour Party then coming back into power would have been pretty strong and the Tory damage in the short interval minimal. Now there'll almost certainly be another 5 years to dismantle the system to which you refer. Perhaps some Labour in-fighting will lead to an even longer period in opposition.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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Luigi
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I think Corbyn has had a better than expected campaign and I have even warmed to him - though not his core supporters.

The Tories have been shockingly poor. They have u-turned all over the place.

We are now at the point in a second term Government when the party in power are at their most unpopular - losing by-elections, local council elections and bottom lining in the opinion polls.

Perhaps even more important most people haven't seen an improvement in their living standards in roughly a decade.

Considering all that - if Labour loses by 50 seats or more, surely those who said he was unelectable were broadly speaking right.

[ 08. June 2017, 06:03: Message edited by: Luigi ]

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mr cheesy
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If the Tories win big with that manifesto and that campaign then I think it is fair to say that Labour and Corbyn are failures.

[ 08. June 2017, 06:07: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
I think Corbyn has had a better than expected campaign and I have even warmed to him - though not his core supporters.

The Tories have been shockingly poor. They have u-turned all over the place.

We are now at the point in a second term Government when the party in power are at their most unpopular - losing by-elections, local council elections and bottom lining in the opinion polls.

Perhaps even more important most people haven't seen an improvement in their living standards in roughly a decade.

Considering all that - if Labour loses by 50 seats or more, surely those who said he was unelectable were broadly speaking right.

We'll never know what might have been without the deliberate sabotage of Labour's chances from the right of the party. In any case, odds are that Corbyn will get a larger share of the vote than any Labour leader since 2001. The seat count may suffer due to the collapse of UKIP.
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Luigi
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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
I think Corbyn has had a better than expected campaign and I have even warmed to him - though not his core supporters.

The Tories have been shockingly poor. They have u-turned all over the place.

We are now at the point in a second term Government when the party in power are at their most unpopular - losing by-elections, local council elections and bottom lining in the opinion polls.

Perhaps even more important most people haven't seen an improvement in their living standards in roughly a decade.

Considering all that - if Labour loses by 50 seats or more, surely those who said he was unelectable were broadly speaking right.

We'll never know what might have been without the deliberate sabotage of Labour's chances from the right of the party. In any case, odds are that Corbyn will get a larger share of the vote than any Labour leader since 2001. The seat count may suffer due to the collapse of UKIP.
True - but it is interesting to me that it is his supporters who have banged on most about how he doesn't even have the support of his party. This is to sell his anti-establishment credentials. They think it is his USP!

Also the Tories have hammered home his voting record on terrorism, his confusing position on Brexit and the magic money tree. All things that would have been targets irrespective of the Labour right. The Tories always know their opponents weak points. They've barely mentioned the coup.

[ 08. June 2017, 06:19: Message edited by: Luigi ]

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Luigi
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Just to add - Corbyn's dismal opinion polls at the beginning of the campaign have arguably boosted his campaign. When after a few weeks the Tories lead was no longer 20+ but in the low teens Corbyn's supporters could say look at how well he is doing. It gave him significant momentum.
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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
If the Tories win big with that manifesto and that campaign then I think it is fair to say that Labour and Corbyn are failures.

It will be interesting to see whether Corbyn and his followers will accept such a result, or look around trying to blame others.

It's also interesting how much the political landscape has changed over two years. In 2015, before the election, many Conservatives thought an outright win was impossible. When Cameron came home with a 12-seat majority, people were amazed. It was the thing that couldn't be done. Now, anything less than a 50-seat majority will be considered a failure. Extraordinary.

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Luigi
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
If the Tories win big with that manifesto and that campaign then I think it is fair to say that Labour and Corbyn are failures.

It will be interesting to see whether Corbyn and his followers will accept such a result, or look around trying to blame others.

It's also interesting how much the political landscape has changed over two years. In 2015, before the election, many Conservatives thought an outright win was impossible. When Cameron came home with a 12-seat majority, people were amazed. It was the thing that couldn't be done. Now, anything less than a 50-seat majority will be considered a failure. Extraordinary.

It would be failure. May called it to significantly increase her majority. She did it because she was so far ahead in the opinion polls. Governments aren't normally in such a strong position mid term and don't have an excuse like Brexit to call it.
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Doublethink.
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Of course, it is just possible Corbyn could emulate Cameron.

Nate Silver has this on the odds.

[ 08. June 2017, 06:49: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Luigi
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Of course, it is just possible Corbyn could emulate Cameron.

Nate Silver has this on the odds.

Hung parliament is entirely plausible - what I hope for in many ways. A 20 plus Labour majority and the polls will have lost all credibility.
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mr cheesy
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Section 66A of the Representation of the People Act 1983 is quite interesting:

quote:
Prohibition on publication of exit polls.

(1)No person shall, in the case of an election to which this section applies, publish before the poll is closed—

(a)any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted

I note that several newspapers have told people commenting below articles today that making posts describing how one has voted would be in violation of this.

IANAL, I'm just putting this here for information. Possibly best not to discuss how you've voted if you have already voted.

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arse

Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Yeah, got caught out on that last year with a "how you voted" poll on referendum day. Which we (rightly) closed as a precaution.

No such restriction could possibly apply after 10pm (BST) this evening.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
Hung parliament is entirely plausible - what I hope for in many ways. A 20 plus Labour majority and the polls will have lost all credibility.

I thought that was quite interesting analysis, although I suspect that there are several groups who could decide this election rather than just the youth vote.

  • UKIP voters
  • Leave voters
  • Older people

One would think that if large numbers of any of these group do not get out to vote then this will have an impact on the number of Tory seats. It wouldn't surprise me if the weather has an impact on the Tories more than other parties.

Acting against that might be that Tory voters have been unwilling to admit to voting intentions to the pollsters. If that's the case then the true distance between the parties might not have been reflected in recent polls.

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arse

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
It's also interesting how much the political landscape has changed over two years. In 2015, before the election, many Conservatives thought an outright win was impossible. When Cameron came home with a 12-seat majority, people were amazed. It was the thing that couldn't be done. Now, anything less than a 50-seat majority will be considered a failure. Extraordinary.

May was 20 points clear when she called it. It's now all over the shop and most likely down to single figures.

This has been the most unrelentingly negative Tory campaign in living memory, as well as the worst. They have a leader who is so clearly out of her depth talking to actual people, let alone journalists. The only policies I can name are the ones she's U-turned on.

She's failed utterly already, no matter the result here. No one in Europe will be taking her seriously after this.

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Forward the New Republic

Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think Tory majority of more than 100.

I agree, though could possibly be as low as 80.

quote:
In other news: we're screwed.
Don't quite agree.

Well you should. Tory policies are killing vulnerable people now. Why should that change if they get back in. Please, for God's sake, stop voting to kill my friends.

[ 08. June 2017, 07:39: Message edited by: Karl: Liberal Backslider ]

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Might as well ask the bloody cat.

Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
Tory policies are killing vulnerable people now. Why should that change if they get back in. Please, for God's sake, stop voting to kill my friends.

When Jesus came to Birmingham, they simply passed him by.
They would not hurt a hair of him; they only let him die.

(Studderd-Kennedy)

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
# 944

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Read this.

Thank you. What an amazing woman. I will still laugh at her gaffes, though; unless illness was the reason.

Good luck to the UK. I, lefty-leaner I am, hope for a certain result; but it seems impossible. Hope the young and disaffected turn out in droves instead of being disillusioned. Interesting notes about negativity and poor performance too...could be one of our elections. I sometimes wonder about the 2-party system.

Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged



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