Source: (consider it)
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Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
It is for the Unionists! Like everything else in NI, Brexit broke down along sectarian lines. Unionists voted Leave. Nationalists voted Remain. So the Unionists would love to support a Conservative Brexit.
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic: It is for the Unionists! Like everything else in NI, Brexit broke down along sectarian lines. Unionists voted Leave. Nationalists voted Remain. So the Unionists would love to support a Conservative Brexit.
I'm not so sure. It's easier to support Brexit from a distance when they're not actively involved in supporting the government that is doing it. A bit trickier when they have to explain to constituents why they're risking the peace on such a crazy idea that they're actively supporting. [ 08. June 2017, 22:11: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
-------------------- arse
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
First two results from Newcastle and Sunderland suggest Conservatives have done better than the exit poll, and Labour worse. Now flannelling over the impact of Brexit and where the UKIP vote has gone...
-------------------- I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
But the majority of their constituents voted Leave! They'd be only too pleased!
[cross post - reply to mr cheesy] [ 08. June 2017, 22:12: Message edited by: TurquoiseTastic ]
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by lowlands_boy: First two results from Newcastle and Sunderland suggest Conservatives have done better than the exit poll, and Labour worse. Now flannelling over the impact of Brexit and where the UKIP vote has gone...
Conversely Labour were 11% up in the first conservative hold. The results are all over the place.
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by lowlands_boy: First two results from Newcastle and Sunderland suggest Conservatives have done better than the exit poll, and Labour worse. Now flannelling over the impact of Brexit and where the UKIP vote has gone...
On the grounds that the Tories will implement Brexit, I expect most UKIP votes to go there. Any UKIP votes that go anywhere else must be counted a loss the Theresa May.
-------------------- "He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
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Posted
One of my younger work colleagues said something interesting today. He is 28 and really enthusiastic about this election and Jeremy Corbyn because he is the first "proper Labour PM" he can remember. He can only remember Tony Blair and his successors - aged 8 or 9 in 1997. He (and my daughter, of a similar age) have both joined the Labour Party following Jeremy Corbyn standing for the Labour Party leadership.
-------------------- Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
Doublethink is right.
UKIP is collapsing; the big issue is going to be who gets those votes. So far, in safe Labour seats, Conservatives are getting a bigger share; in safe Conservative seats, Labour are getting a bigger share.
Whatever the final result, it is a bad result for UKIP and a bad personal result for Theresa May. Both of which get a big cheer from me.
It might also be a yet another bad night for the pollsters.
-------------------- Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
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Posted
There are two things going on here, I believe:
- Young vote inspired by Jeremy Corbyn into politics and voting;
- The suggested way to send a clear message, according to the tactical voting sites, was vote either Labour or Conservative
I stood in the polling station this morning, in a safe conservative seat, debating which way I was voting - Labour to send a message to the Tory party, or for the guy standing as Lib Dem candidate, who I know well and is a good local councillor. In 2015 the conservative candidate here polled over 50% of the vote. I think that's why Labour and Conservative votes are up in all constituencies.
-------------------- Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
Nice point made by BBC.
Brexit referendum threw everything up in the air and its coming down in a very different way.
South more Labour North more Tory
One thing is for sure: those who said Corbyn was a complete disaster are wrong.
-------------------- I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Sarasa
Shipmate
# 12271
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Posted
I've got to be up at five as I'm off on holiday, but I don't want to go to bed until I have a clearer idea of the final result. Oh well I guess I can sleep on the plane.
-------------------- 'I guess things didn't go so well tonight, but I'm trying. Lord, I'm trying.' Charlie (Harvey Keitel) in Mean Streets.
Posts: 2035 | From: London | Registered: Jan 2007
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Zappa
Ship's Wake
# 8433
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...: One of my younger work colleagues said something interesting today. He is 28 and really enthusiastic about this election and Jeremy Corbyn because he is the first "proper Labour PM" he can remember. He can only remember Tony Blair and his successors - aged 8 or 9 in 1997. He (and my daughter, of a similar age) have both joined the Labour Party following Jeremy Corbyn standing for the Labour Party leadership.
Yup, i think he's right
-------------------- shameless self promotion - because I think it's worth it and mayhap this too: http://broken-moments.blogspot.co.nz/
Posts: 18917 | From: "Central" is all they call it | Registered: Sep 2004
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Doublethink.: I'm just praying for a miracle.
Looks like your prayers have "availed much"!
-------------------- Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Not too sure about that, but fingers crossed....
I wasn't intending to stay up to see what happens, but sleep does not yet beckon.
IJ
-------------------- Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Bookies now have Corbyn favourite to be prime minister. [ 09. June 2017, 01:19: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Hmm. There's a way to go yet, but Labour are doing well - so far....
IJ
-------------------- Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
Checking in while at work...
Could the polls be wrong? Again?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Well, yes, they could - but the exit poll may prove to be accurate-ish...
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the son of one of our churchwardens, standing for Labour in a (fairly) safe Tory seat (it was Labour a few years ago), not yet declared.
IJ
-------------------- Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Nick Clegg has lost his seat to labour. On the other hand Vince Cable has taken Twickenham back. Meanwhile, Tim Farron is having a recount. [ 09. June 2017, 01:56: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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ArachnidinElmet
Shipmate
# 17346
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Posted
Sexist scumbag, Philip Davies, has lost Shipley. A pleasing result.
-------------------- 'If a pleasant, straight-forward life is not possible then one must try to wriggle through by subtle manoeuvres' - Kafka
Posts: 1887 | From: the rhubarb triangle | Registered: Sep 2012
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Sadly, the Greens failed to win Bristol West, where Labour achieved a majority of about 35000!
No result yet from Caroline Lucas' seat in Brighton.
IJ
-------------------- Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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ArachnidinElmet
Shipmate
# 17346
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Posted
Really want to stay up for Wakefield to be declared, but my stamina is starting to waver. Tories have been throwing everything but the kitchen sink at us so am genuinely a bit worried.
-------------------- 'If a pleasant, straight-forward life is not possible then one must try to wriggle through by subtle manoeuvres' - Kafka
Posts: 1887 | From: the rhubarb triangle | Registered: Sep 2012
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Indeed - it's getting interesting. So far, Labour are well ahead, at the expense, mostly, of SNP, and a few Tories.
IJ
-------------------- Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Dark Knight
Super Zero
# 9415
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Ian Climacus: Checking in while at work...
Could the polls be wrong? Again?
Yep. I suggested they might be several pages back. People will eventually resist the posivist wet dream that attempts to reduce us all to numbers. They did in the US in 2016, to our chagrin. This time, it looks like a happy thing.
Posts: 2958 | From: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road | Registered: Apr 2005
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
I do like Lord Buckethead. And who is that red creature at Theresa May's constituency's count?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Dark Knight: People will eventually resist the posivist wet dream that attempts to reduce us all to numbers. They did in the US in 2016, to our chagrin. This time, it looks like a happy thing.
I do hope so, but there seems so much money invested in polls I wonder who will be first insider to admit the emperor has no clothes? I think they can be useful, but the live-and-die-by-them mentality, or the belief we are all honest when polled [and I'm yet to be polled once], is troubling.
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Doublethink.: Bookies now have Corbyn favourite to be prime minister.
Conservatives + DUP look to have an overall majority over a progressive coalition of the other parties. Plus 6 or 7 Sinn Fein MP's always abstain.
So at present I can't see Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM but I could see another election this year. May will probably go, maybe not straight away.
-------------------- Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Ian Climacus: I do like Lord Buckethead. And who is that red creature at Theresa May's constituency's count?
Elmo from Sesame Street. He only got 3 votes
AFZ
-------------------- Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. [Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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Alwyn
Shipmate
# 4380
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Posted
Conservatives currently on 285 with 56 seats to declare (326 would be a majority), Labour have 245. BBC says Conservatives will fall short of a majority. A remarkable night!
-------------------- Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
Posts: 849 | From: UK | Registered: Apr 2003
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
Obviously a bad result for Mrs. May.
Mr. Corbyn loses Milibandly - stand by for both left and right wings of the Labour party to claim vindication for their preferred politics, although this has to strengthen Corbyn's position in the short term.
Are we looking at a minority Conservative government propped up by the DUP? Possibly a full-blown coalition?
Does anyone have a feel for what the loss of seats means for the SNP? Obviously the only way was down, but this seems like s significant turn against them.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Are we looking at a minority Conservative government propped up by the DUP? Possibly a full-blown coalition?
One or the other. DUP will want concessions on Brexit. Probably the single market solution, given the border with Eire. If the Tories can't find a way of fudging that or agreeing to that, the odds are strongly in favour of another election this year.
-------------------- Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Barnabas62: One or the other. DUP will want concessions on Brexit.
I think one has to read the result of this election as at least a modest rejection of the "Hard Brexit at any cost" anti-strategy currently being offered by the Tories.
Will be interesting to see how the Tories respond. May's position looks weak, but who on earth would want to take the poisoned chalice from her right now?
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by ArachnidinElmet: Sexist scumbag, Philip Davies, has lost Shipley. A pleasing result.
I've been asleep but I think this is wrong, sadly.
Otherwise some are saying the exit poll could be the most accurate ever.
-------------------- arse
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
Thanks alienfromzog.
Exit polls: how are they conducted? Do they try and ask as many people as possible, or do they try and selectively choose a wide sample based on gender, age, race [I know; but I can't think of a better word], etc...?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
Jeremy Corbyn led an excellent campaign (proving a lot of people wrong). The Tory campaign was disastrously misconceived, badly presented especially by the PM. Some nasty journalist described it as a "Hillary campaign".
Given these factors, 316 or so seats for the Tories is a better result than it might have been. The next few days are going to be 'very interesting'. Hopefully they will not be 'also stoopid' (tips hat to Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In).
-------------------- Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Leorning Cniht: quote: Originally posted by Barnabas62: One or the other. DUP will want concessions on Brexit.
I think one has to read the result of this election as at least a modest rejection of the "Hard Brexit at any cost" anti-strategy currently being offered by the Tories.
Yes, the result looks to me like effectively a second Brexit referendum.
Just bear in mind that you are supposed to be starting Brexit negotiations on June 19, by the way...
-------------------- Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Ian Climacus: Thanks alienfromzog.
Exit polls: how are they conducted? Do they try and ask as many people as possible, or do they try and selectively choose a wide sample based on gender, age, race [I know; but I can't think of a better word], etc...?
I posted a link above - it is about finding people who are representative of a constituency and clever statistical modeling.
-------------------- arse
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
George Osbourne whoring himself all over the media all night, being a media tart himself now. May will be one of the shortest lived PMs ever and it's a rejection of hard Brexit.
Conveniently forgetting that it's also quite a rejection of his austerity stuff too I would imagine....
-------------------- I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by mr cheesy: quote: Originally posted by Ian Climacus: Thanks alienfromzog.
Exit polls: how are they conducted? Do they try and ask as many people as possible, or do they try and selectively choose a wide sample based on gender, age, race [I know; but I can't think of a better word], etc...?
I posted a link above - it is about finding people who are representative of a constituency and clever statistical modeling.
Thanks...sorry; missed that link.
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
Sinn Fein now on 7, up 3, in a further small shift of the balance required for an effective majority, as they have confirmed they will continue to abstain.
SDLP and UUP have lost all their seats, making the DUP bigger players.
-------------------- I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Results declared so far: May definitely cannot get a majority but looks like she might be able to scrape together a government with DUP support, though even a DUP-Conservative coalition would have a reduced majority.
SNP: Not really a good night for them. They've still got a majority of Scottish seats. I think Sturgeon will probably kick the second referendum into the long grass unless Brexit goes belly up. That's less likely than it was.
Liberal Democrats: not the rebuilding of Liberal Democrat fortunes Farron was hoping for. But moving in the right way for them.
Labour: indisputably under almost any other Labour leader we'd still have a Conservative government because under almost any other Labour leader May wouldn't have been tempted to call an election. On the one hand, you could argue that after that Tory campaign Labour should have won. On the other hand, it looks as if Corbyn's strategy of picking up younger voters has succeeded. The alleged army of right-wing Labour saboteurs mysteriously failed to materialise. Scottish Labour, that hotbed of Blairism, were praising the manifesto. A lot of Labour MPs are suddenly going to be much happier with Corbyn than they were.
Conservatives: are as of typing on course to be comfortably the largest party. But if you call an election because you say you need a bigger majority for a mandate, and you lose your majority it's a little awkward claiming that you've got the mandate you didn't have before you called the election.
Brexit negotiations start in a couple of weeks time. Now is not the time for another leadership contest in the governing party. On the other hand, May clearly cannot command the confidence of Parliament. Hooray for Strong and Stable government.
-------------------- we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Dafyd: SNP: Not really a good night for them. They've still got a majority of Scottish seats. I think Sturgeon will probably kick the second referendum into the long grass unless Brexit goes belly up. That's less likely than it was.
The Scottish government has already formally requested a referendum, so it's now in the hands of whoever will be PM whether or not to grant that request. Maybe a clever move for a pro-unionist PM to let the Scottish government run their referendum with an expectation that support for independence will be less than it was in 2014 (in part because of antipathy towards yet another referendum), which really will kick independence into the very long grass. Though, recent experience with elections suggests it could be a massive risk. Denying the request for a referendum just plays into the "Scotland under the thumb" narrative.
In what sense is Brexit going belly-up now less likely? There are I guess three broad options:
1. May continues as PM and continues to follow the form of Brexit outlined 2. May continues as PM and sets out a new version of Brexit reflecting what seems like a clear rejection of her hard Brexit 3. Someone else takes over as PM (probably another Tory - a Labour lead coalition seems very improbable) with a different version of Brexit
1-2 leaves the UK side headed by a lame duck, and the EU will walk all over her 2-3 leaves the UK entering negotiations after a significant delay (to define a new position and/or get a new PM), reducing the already tight negotiation timetable
These options all put the EU negotiators on the high ground. Which I suppose could be a good thing, because that may mean we get Brexit on the terms of the EU rather than the UK which is likely to be a far more sensible outcome. If we leave the EU and retain freedom of movement, for example, that would be a better Brexit for the UK and the EU.
-------------------- Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Will be interesting to see how the Tories respond. May's position looks weak, but who on earth would want to take the poisoned chalice from her right now?
In that sense it's possibly less worse than a victory leaving labour holding the baby (we've just had the lowest growth rates in the region). It just needs 7 good Tories/DUP to stop that bad times being used as an asset grab. The short term pains still worse, but it might recover better.
Posts: 1643 | Registered: May 2006
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
I think anyone with a majority of less than 5 is going to find it incredibly hard to negotiate anything - particularly if that's based on additional votes from the DUP.
I think there's going to be another election.
-------------------- arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Government of national unity ?
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
Correction: it looks like Tories + DUP will have between 5 and 10 seats more than everyone else.
I still don't think that's a workable majority in practice. But also means that nobody else can get one either.
-------------------- arse
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
It's something of a disaster from the point of view of Brexit. Remain has no mandate. Nobody has any ground to say the country is united behind their take on Brexit. A government of national unity isn't going to happen - nobody wants to get burned the way Clegg did.
I blame Cameron. This is what comes of running a referendum and not being prepared to take responsibility for the result.
-------------------- we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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