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Source: (consider it) Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
I blame Cameron. This is what comes of running a referendum and not being prepared to take responsibility for the result.

My thoughts entirely.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Gee D
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# 13815

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Is it possible that to some extent Trump is responsible for getting so many young people out to vote Labour? IIRC, those under 30 have shown a strong reluctance to vote in the past. This time, they've seen in the US what can happen if people don't perform their duty and vote - they get stuck with a Trump whose very committed supporters will vote.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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The Labour Party has been in such turmoil over the last few years. Did they get a chance to clear out some of the MP's who were conspiring against Corbyn through the preselection process?

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Human

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mr cheesy
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The more I think about it, the less I like the idea of the DUP in a coalition. They've got some incredibly conservative policies - which are surely going to run incredibly badly with at least some gay Tories - and are much softer on Brexit than some of the Tory headbangers.

Imagine if the price of support is a commitment by the new government to abolish Stormont. I don't know enough about NI politics to know what is going to be expected in a DUP deal, but with the Stomont Assembly in crisis, having the DUP in government in Westminster wouldn't be good. Presumably there are clear heads in the Tory party who must know this.

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arse

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
Is it possible that to some extent Trump is responsible for getting so many young people out to vote Labour? IIRC, those under 30 have shown a strong reluctance to vote in the past. This time, they've seen in the US what can happen if people don't perform their duty and vote - they get stuck with a Trump whose very committed supporters will vote.

I think this was little to do with Trump and everything to do with a blinder of a campaign by Corbyn. Young people got the message that the Tories were trying to screw them in many different ways and voted accordingly.

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arse

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Curiosity killed ...

Ship's Mug
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Anecdotally the young people who have voted finally feel as if they have someone worth voting for, in Corbyn. The last few Labour leaders have all been Tory lite, Blair, Milliband, and not anyone inspiring or saying anything that young people want to vote for.

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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat

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rolyn
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
I blame Cameron. This is what comes of running a referendum and not being prepared to take responsibility for the result.

My thoughts entirely.
My sentiments as well.

The one thing that has been slain last night is Tory arrogance, that is no bad thing whatever lies ahead.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
Is it possible that to some extent Trump is responsible for getting so many young people out to vote Labour? IIRC, those under 30 have shown a strong reluctance to vote in the past. This time, they've seen in the US what can happen if people don't perform their duty and vote - they get stuck with a Trump whose very committed supporters will vote.

I think the vote reveals that voters are in a very contrary mood when it comes to supporting leaders.

Brexit was an "up yours" vote against Cameron.

Half of UKIP's voters appear to have voted Labour, which can surely only be explained as another "up yours".

Similarly, Trump's win was an "up yours" to the establishment - as was Macron's.

The votes are against the political status quo.

With the possible exception of Macron, these are all votes against something rather than positive votes in favour of some clearly-defined, real-world policies. More than anything else they are a rejection of existing political systems.

(If I was Emmanuel Macron I'd be worried that the electorate, still in a contrary mood, aren't going to give him the parliamentary mandate his presidency needs).

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Curiosity killed ...

Ship's Mug
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I also think the vote polarised because for those of us in safe seats the tactical voting message was vote Labour to get Tories out or vice versa. I know I followed that advice rather than my usual preference of voting for one of the minor parties.

Locally the 14.7% UKIP vote last time looks to have split 9.9% Con, 4.6% Lab, with Labour picking up some other votes from the Greens and LibDems.

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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat

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mr cheesy
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I think it was more than "up yours", to be honest. The Tories had a terrible campaign and had no policies with any appeal for the young or poor.

Brexit barely came up at all (apart from some talk about "hard" or "soft" Brexits - which weren't defined and don't really mean anything anyway) - both Labour and the Tories implicitly accepted that it was going to happen.

I think therefore that a large number of voters simply put aside the issue of whether there was to be a Brexit and voted based on the policies as described by the parties. Even if one was a strong Leave supporter, there are many more reasons to vote Labour than Tory if one is poor or young.

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arse

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
The Labour Party has been in such turmoil over the last few years. Did they get a chance to clear out some of the MP's who were conspiring against Corbyn through the preselection process?

Not at all no, because it was such a snap election with no lead up period. Effectively, all existing MPs were automatically candidates to stand again for their own seats. So there was no "preselection process" whatsoever.

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
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Also, don't underestimate the effect of the size the Labour Party now is. There were thousands upon thousands of volunteers prepared to go out and knock on doors. Many of us for the first time. Resources like "mynearestmarginal.com" co-ordinated volunteers to travel to marginals under their own steam to support the campaigns in close seats.

We had people traveling to us from Glasgow, London, Bishops Stortford etc

[ 09. June 2017, 07:38: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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North East Quine

Curious beastie
# 13049

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Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
The Tories had a terrible campaign and had no policies with any appeal for the young or poor.
I think Ruth Davidson led a good campaign here in Scotland. The Tory leaflets which came through our door focussed on Davidson; I don't recall May's name or image appearing at all. Her campaign focussed on attacking IndyRef2, but she had some good slogans - "education, not separation" More money for schools, increase teacher numbers. Education is a devolved matter, so she could campaign on this regardless of anything the Westminster Tories said.
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mr cheesy
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Yes, I think this campaign has highlighted the differences between Scottish Labour and Westminster Labour - and also interestingly between Welsh Labour and Westminster Labour.

Another problem with the Westminster Labour party is that it is still contains people with wildly differing views. If it had an opportunity to form a coalition, I think it is more likely to fail due to problems from within the party than without.

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arse

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think it was more than "up yours", to be honest. The Tories had a terrible campaign and had no policies with any appeal for the young or poor.

I don't think the Tories had any policies with any appeal for anyone beyond grammar school obsessives and workhouse managers.

The up yours votes have largely been for large vague promises. Given the short notice they had to assemble it, the Labour manifesto was notably clear and coherent, arguably even over-conservative.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Gee D
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And the reasons being suggested for the enormous drop in SNP support?

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
And the reasons being suggested for the enormous drop in SNP support?

50%+ of Scots are against independence.

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arse

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
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Pro union tactical voting to avoid a second independence referendum.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Yes, I think this campaign has highlighted the differences between Scottish Labour and Westminster Labour - and also interestingly between Welsh Labour and Westminster Labour.

Another problem with the Westminster Labour party is that it is still contains people with wildly differing views. If it had an opportunity to form a coalition, I think it is more likely to fail due to problems from within the party than without.

I think this is why John McDonnell is suggesting an issue by issue minority government. (Though I doubt it will happen.)

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I think this is why John McDonnell is suggesting an issue by issue minority government. (Though I doubt it will happen.)

I can't see how that can possibly work. The arithmetic doesn't stack up - the government would be defeated on any issue that the Tories + DUP voted together on.

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arse

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mr cheesy
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OK, here's an idea: the Tories deliberately fail to form a government and stand aside to allow Labour to try. Labour fail to get the LDs on side (who have said that they'll not accept any coalitions or deals) and form a loose pact with the SNP.

That's the weakest of weak governments. The Tories allow it to continue, gleefully punching holes in it whenever they feel like it, until such time as it inevitably falls into chaos.

Then there is an election and the Tories can point to the hamfisted way that Corbyn ran a government.

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arse

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North East Quine

Curious beastie
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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
And the reasons being suggested for the enormous drop in SNP support?

Sturgeon proposed IndyRef2 too quickly. Also, the last result, when the SNP won 56 out of 59 seats, was never going to be replicated. The SNP won 35 seats, compared to the Conservatives 13, Labours 7 and the Lib Dems 4. Under most circumstances that would be seen as a good result for the SNP.
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Stejjie
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# 13941

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OK, I'll 'fess up - I got Corbyn wrong. Since the second leadership election, and especially during the Article 50 votes in the Commons, I was more and more believing that he was no good and was leading his party to disaster. While I wanted Labour to do well, I just couldn't see it happening under Corbyn; they seemed shambolic at times. And when May called the election, I thought "that's it, then".

I was wrong.

The line against Corbyn - which I bought into - was that he, and therefore Labour, was unelectable. And sure, Labour haven't outright won the election. But to haul in a Conservative party and PM who looked unassailable just a few months ago and, not only to prevent them increasing their majority but to deny them any majority at all, is an exceptional result. Corbyn has clearly connected with people, especially young people, in a way few expected and in a way May definitely did not (and probably thought she didn't have to).

The presumption against Corbyn was always that a general election, when he had to make a case to a wider group than his core support, would be his downfall - that he would fail that ultimate test. He didn't; he passed it, and comfortably. Surely now he deserves to be allowed to lead without sniping from his critics; he's won that.

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
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quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
Surely now he deserves to be allowed to lead without sniping from his critics; he's won that.

I can't see it. They seem to hate him with a passion; or hate what he stands for with a passion and therefore he is a target.

I hope *I* am wrong.

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mr cheesy
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There is an air of unreality around Westminster. The idea that Labour can form a minority administration that is stable with less seats than the Tories is madness.

The idea that David Davis has a mandate to continue with his "hard brexit" mantra is clearly nonsense.

Come back to the real world, you idiots.

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arse

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Stejjie
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
Surely now he deserves to be allowed to lead without sniping from his critics; he's won that.

I can't see it. They seem to hate him with a passion; or hate what he stands for with a passion and therefore he is a target.

I hope *I* am wrong.

I suspect, and fear, you're right. But surely on the basis of last night's result, the last thing Labour needs is more in-fighting. Now's the time to go after the Tories, not each other.

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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Martin60
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Result!

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Love wins

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Gee D
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# 13815

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
And the reasons being suggested for the enormous drop in SNP support?

50%+ of Scots are against independence.
Indeed, a very comfortable majority voted against it in the referendum, but the SNP still held all but 3 of the Scottish seats in the old Parliament.

NEQ, thanks for that. The vote at the next election for the Scottish Parliament will be very interesting.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
OK, I'll 'fess up - I got Corbyn wrong.

Me too. I'm really very happy to have been wrong. I was looking for that thread where we debated his leadership and competence, but from memory the things I had against him were his inability to do any deals to bring the party together, apparent inability to manage appointments and affairs in his office and the shambolic appearance.

The election campaign seems to have been extremely well run, and to have been politically coherent and attractive to voters.

It seems to me the turning issues were; a) that the more mainstream press treated Corbyn a bit more fairly under election campaign rules (excluding Mail and Sun from that description); b) that May had a terrible campaign and really tarnished the Tory-competent Labour-incompetent idea c) Corbyn penchant to look calm and steady in the face of a tunnel of shit cut a contrast with the flappable PM and d) the parliamentary party, nervous as it was, got behind him and that helps.

It will give him a new lease of life with the parliamentary party, and I really hope that he uses it well. I've rarely been happier to be wronger.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
Indeed, a very comfortable majority voted against it in the referendum, but the SNP still held all but 3 of the Scottish seats in the old Parliament.

Yes. After the first ref, the SNP were able to galvanise support in the next Westminster election to pull off a shock result.

That was never going to work this time around, and focusing on the possibility of an #indyref2 was a mistake.

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arse

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
Surely now he deserves to be allowed to lead without sniping from his critics; he's won that.

quote:
Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
I can't see it. They seem to hate him with a passion; or hate what he stands for with a passion and therefore he is a target.

I hope *I* am wrong.

quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
I suspect, and fear, you're right. But surely on the basis of last night's result, the last thing Labour needs is more in-fighting. Now's the time to go after the Tories, not each other.

They may do that. Politicians are usually pragmatists. If their political interests are best served by pulling together and fighting the Tories there's a fair chance they will do that.

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
They may do that. Politicians are usually pragmatists. If their political interests are best served by pulling together and fighting the Tories there's a fair chance they will do that.

Please explain how that could be done. Even ignoring the DUP, the arithmetic doesn't add up.

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arse

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Ian Climacus

Liturgical Slattern
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I took it to mean lead the Party, not the Kingdom.

And the pragmatic part makes sense...hitch themselves to his coat tails.

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quetzalcoatl
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It's not just about arithmetic. I think a minority Labour govt is very unlikely, but it is possible, for the reason that the Tories would not dare defeat it. If they did, there would be another election, and the Tories would fear really losing next time. So Labour would have a kind of sword hanging over the Tories. But I can't see it really. Then again, the idea of May carrying on seems grotesque.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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mr cheesy
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Nobody has won. A minority government in either direction would be weak. It is craziness to say otherwise.

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arse

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North East Quine

Curious beastie
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Gee D, in the last few days prior to the first Indy Ref, Westminster started to panic that the Scots would vote Yes. Something called "The Vow" appeared on the front page of the Daily Record. Once the vote was over, all three leaders backed off from "The Vow." The huge bounce in SNP support in the last election reflected a feeling that the Westminster parties had treated the Scots with contempt, by making cynical empty promises.

This result, in respect of the SNP at least, is more indicative of the level of support the SNP have here i.e. comfortably ahead of any other party, but not the only party.

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Eutychus
From the edge
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Nobody has won. A minority government in either direction would be weak. It is craziness to say otherwise.

Well in the words of a Tory MP this morning, "the electorate plainly have got it wrong".

You'll just have to keep on having fresh elections until they get it right.

Welcome to Italian politics.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:

It seems to me the turning issues were; a) that the more mainstream press treated Corbyn a bit more fairly under election campaign rules (excluding Mail and Sun from that description); b) that May had a terrible campaign and really tarnished the Tory-competent Labour-incompetent idea c) Corbyn penchant to look calm and steady in the face of a tunnel of shit cut a contrast with the flappable PM and

I think the effect of b) was that the May became the story - and the media whatever their biases still want to run with the story, and sensing blood they moved in.
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la vie en rouge
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
Is it possible that to some extent Trump is responsible for getting so many young people out to vote Labour? IIRC, those under 30 have shown a strong reluctance to vote in the past. This time, they've seen in the US what can happen if people don't perform their duty and vote - they get stuck with a Trump whose very committed supporters will vote.

I think this was little to do with Trump and everything to do with a blinder of a campaign by Corbyn. Young people got the message that the Tories were trying to screw them in many different ways and voted accordingly.
I think in the coming years politics in a lot of developed countries is going to see a significant shift as more and more young people start realising it’s worth coming out to vote.

It isn’t just about Trump. It’s about people under 40 waking up and realising that we have been well and truly shafted by the baby boomers. Take Theresa May’s U-turn on social care: a policy that was going to advantage wealthy retirees at the expense of working people with less money than said retirees.

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
They may do that. Politicians are usually pragmatists. If their political interests are best served by pulling together and fighting the Tories there's a fair chance they will do that.

quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Please explain how that could be done. Even ignoring the DUP, the arithmetic doesn't add up.

I wasn't talking about governing. A given Labour MP is probably doing better hitching themselves to Corbyn's stellar result than descending into infighting.

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I wasn't talking about governing. A given Labour MP is probably doing better hitching themselves to Corbyn's stellar result than descending into infighting.

Sorry pardon, I lost the thread of what you were saying.

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Matt Black

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Another one who is happy to have been proved wrong on Corbyn

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Ian Climacus

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quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
I think in the coming years politics in a lot of developed countries is going to see a significant shift as more and more young people start realising it’s worth coming out to vote.

Interesting...

There are moments I am thankful for compulsory (fined-if-you-don't) voting here; can't say all the young are engaged, but they have to turn up -- if only to get a sausage sandwich and tick off their name!

I do love your results call though - does it have a name? Couldn't always work here as we have preferential, absentee, postal, etc. voting so sometimes results aren't known on the night. But good to see candidates together.

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North East Quine

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Originally posted by GeeD:

quote:
The vote at the next election for the Scottish Parliament will be very interesting.
The Scottish Parliament isn't elected by FPTP, but by AMS (additional member system) which reduces the chances of any one party having an overall majority. Again, I think the current large number of SNP MSPs is a reaction; I expect it will go down next election, and the voting system will exacerbate this.

It isn't healthy to have one party monopolising politics. If we had voted for Indy Ref first time around, in an independent Scotland the SNP would have withered as distictively Scottish versions of the Conservatives and Labour came to the fore.

In fact, Ruth Davidson has worked to create a distictively Scottish Conservative Party. Every leaflet, every campaign, emphasises that they are the "Scottish Conservatives" with a Saltire logo. It's Davidson's face which appears everywhere, not May's.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
Indeed, a very comfortable majority voted against it in the referendum, but the SNP still held all but 3 of the Scottish seats in the old Parliament.

Yes. After the first ref, the SNP were able to galvanise support in the next Westminster election to pull off a shock result.

That was never going to work this time around, and focusing on the possibility of an #indyref2 was a mistake.

The big difference was that in 2015 there was no question about there being another independence referendum. The 2014 result was clear, and without any major change in circumstances there wasn't going to be another shot until sometime after 2030. Scots opposed to independence could then vote SNP based on support for the rest of their policies (or simply an "up-you" to the Labour and Tory two-party system) without fear that by doing so they were implicitely supporting another referendum during the course of the Parliament (and, several after that).

Then there was Brexit, and the refusal of the Tory government to even consider what the Scottish Parliament were saying, and IndyRef was back on the table. Even holding the referendum had changed the circumstances making an early IndyRef2 more likely - which I think was reflected in the move away from SNP in the Scottish Parliament elections prior to the EU referendum. This has made a vote for the SNP and explicit vote for an early IndyRef2 - which affected the local elections (where it should have been irrelevant) and yesterday. So, those people who don't want another referendum (which, probably, includes some of the vote-weary 45%) were more inclined to look at one of the other parties.

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Ian Climacus

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Well in the words of a Tory MP this morning, "the electorate plainly have got it wrong".

[Help]

It's one thing to think something...

But I'm guessing his constituents who voted for him would lap it up.

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L'organist
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Interesting result - and disturbing.

Once more we have one party surprised that the electorate doesn't share its belief that it has an inherent and inalienable right to govern, and a second which again has successfully bribed influential sections of the electorate with uncosted promises that will prove a legislative nightmare and cost billions.

A plague on all their houses.

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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

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lowlands_boy
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May going to the palace at 12:30 with "informal support understanding" from the DUP to provide a working majority.

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Stejjie
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Nobody has won. A minority government in either direction would be weak. It is craziness to say otherwise.

Well in the words of a Tory MP this morning, "the electorate plainly have got it wrong".

You'll just have to keep on having fresh elections until they get it right.

Welcome to Italian politics.

Which is, of course, one of the main complaints about the 'anti-democratic' EU by Brexiters, that they keep forcing countries to have referendums until they produce the 'right result'.

Which was always a load of nonsense, but funny how it changes when the boot's on the other foot for them...

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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Stejjie
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
May going to the palace at 12:30 with "informal support understanding" from the DUP to provide a working majority.

Grayson Perry's got there first!

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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