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Source: (consider it) Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Sinn Fein press conference coming up. Will they do the unthinkable now they know the DUP are going to hold a power balance?

If they decide to do the dirty and go to Westminster for a vote of no confidence, I'm going to bed and not getting up until Monday.

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arse

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Sinn Fein press conference coming up. Will they do the unthinkable now they know the DUP are going to hold a power balance?

If they decide to do the dirty and go to Westminster for a vote of no confidence, I'm going to bed and not getting up until Monday.
I note you carefully avoided explaining which Monday that will be

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Stetson
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Unless I misread the numbers on the Guardian's website, the Tories and the DUP together have a majority of the seats. So even if every other party were to vote against them, they'd still win(assuming no defections from their own ranks)
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mr cheesy
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They have a majority of 10. If you imagine the number of times someone is going to be sick or away (and imagine the opposition refusing to play by the usual informal pairing system), then that's going to be an incredibly difficult thing to defend.

Also you'd need to have a government where there was nobody rebelling. Ever.

Not going to happen.

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arse

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Unless I misread the numbers on the Guardian's website, the Tories and the DUP together have a majority of the seats. So even if every other party were to vote against them, they'd still win(assuming no defections from their own ranks)

There's always been a difference between the "mathematical" and "working" majorities though - the working majority assuming that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, thus giving the government "free" extra seats. If Sinn Fein suddenly turn up then the "working" majority shifts....

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TurquoiseTastic

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SF won't turn up though. I just can't see it happening. With the DUP the majority is perfectly workable. Small but workable.

The danger for Theresa May comes from within the Conservative Party, not from outside it. I bet lots of people would like to stage a challenge. But it may be to her benefit that Labour now looks like a clear threat. Boris etc. may now be sufficiently worried about letting Corbyn in that they keep their daggers sheathed for now.

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Matt Black

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
They have a majority of 10. If you imagine the number of times someone is going to be sick or away (and imagine the opposition refusing to play by the usual informal pairing system), then that's going to be an incredibly difficult thing to defend.

Also you'd need to have a government where there was nobody rebelling. Ever.

Not going to happen.

That's before you factor in by-elections...

The thought of any government being beholden to the poisonous fruit of Ian Paisley's halitosis-ridden bellowing, the closest thing Norn Iron has to a National Socialist party (Godwin? Who cares?) fills me with dread...

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mr cheesy
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Tory 318 + DUP 10 = 328

Lab 261 + LD 12 + SNP 35 + G 1 + PC 4 = 313

So that's a working majority of 15.

That's still not a stable majority, particularly given that the DUP haven't actually agreed anything.

Without the DUP, they've got a majority of 5.

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arse

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mr cheesy
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Of course, if there is ever any chance of the DUP voting against them, then they've got no majority at all.

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arse

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Matt Black

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Without the DUP they only have 318 out of 650 seats - how does that translate into a majority of 5?

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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mr cheesy
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Well there are 7 SF who don't sit plus 4 (I think) for the Speaker and deputies. Erm..

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arse

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TurquoiseTastic

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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
The thought of any government being beholden to the poisonous fruit of Ian Paisley's halitosis-ridden bellowing, the closest thing Norn Iron has to a National Socialist party (Godwin? Who cares?) fills me with dread...

This is too bleak Matt. Remember that the DUP has essentially rolled up the old UUP - lots of their MPs are former UUP including Arlene Foster herself, as are most of their voters. That now means "most Unionists in NI". This is not a totally rabid constituency, any more than the fact that "most Nationalists in NI" voted for Sinn Fein indicates that they are all tommy-gun wielding terrorists.

Though it certainly depresses me (in a "no good deed goes unpunished" way) that UUP, SDLP & Alliance now have 0 seats between them. Ah well at least there's still Lady Sylvia Hermon.

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Well there are 7 SF who don't sit plus 4 (I think) for the Speaker and deputies. Erm..

Yes, precisely. Hence if Sinn Fein did turn up, and sided with Corbyn, May would toasted. They don't seem to be dropping that particular bombshell today at least anyway. In their press conference they referred to the reinstatement of Stormont etc - which I'm sure was a calculated reminder to May and the DUP.

Interesting times, as the Chinese curse goes....

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Matt Black

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So the UK delegation going to Brussels in 10 days' time will be the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. Bit of a mouthful so I do hope they think of an acronym...

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
So the UK delegation going to Brussels in 10 days' time will be the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. Bit of a mouthful so I do hope they think of an acronym...

[Overused]

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Stejjie
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I managed to work that out before the cup of tea I was lifting to my mouth got there, else the consequences could have been disastrous...

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
So the UK delegation going to Brussels in 10 days' time will be the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. Bit of a mouthful so I do hope they think of an acronym...

[Overused]
I second that.... [Overused] [Overused]

The Conservative Campaign

AFZ

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Stetson
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Lowlands Boy wrote:

quote:
Hence if Sinn Fein did turn up, and sided with Corbyn, May would toasted.
Am I missing something here?

According to the Guardian, the Tories and the DUP have a combined total of 328 seats.

All the other parties have a combined total of 309. Included in that is 12 for "Others", which I would assume covers Sinn Fein.

So, Tories/DUP 328, everyone else, including Sinn Fein, 309. Even if Sinn Fein starts showing up, and everyone in the 309 votes against the government, that still doesn't give them a majority.


link

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Stetson
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As for the Conservatives collapsing because they won't be able to get everyone to show up for votes all the time, well, just going by the Canadian experience, minority governments have managed to stay in power for years at a time under a Westminister system.

Stephen Harper had a minority government between 2006 and 2011, a period which included two elections, just for examaple. He had to do a lot of deft manouvering, basically cutting deals with one opposition party or another to convince them to side with him in a vote, and at one point he even prorogued the parliament(can't recall all the details about that). It's tricky, but it can be done.

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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Matt Black

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I think he meant if they didn't have the DUP's support as well.

I think I get the numbers now...

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Am I missing something here?

According to the Guardian, the Tories and the DUP have a combined total of 328 seats.

All the other parties have a combined total of 309. Included in that is 12 for "Others", which I would assume covers Sinn Fein.

Lab 261 + LD 12 + SNP 35 + G 1 + PC 4 = 313 plus 7 for SF = 320

I can't see any way that the numbers get to 309.

quote:
So, Tories/DUP 328, everyone else, including Sinn Fein, 309. Even if Sinn Fein starts showing up, and everyone in the 309 votes against the government, that still doesn't give them a majority.

I think someone has miscounted. The numbers above are from the Guardian page you link to (I forgot the 1 Indy who is maybe to go with the Tories from NI)

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arse

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Bishops Finger
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I make it 321 for Labour + everyone else:

Labour 261
Lib-Dems 12
SNP 35
Greens 1
The Rest 12 (presumably including Sinn Fein).

So near, and yet so far...

One can only hope that the egregious DUPEs are snatched away by aliens over the weekend.

IJ

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Stetson
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quote:
I think someone has miscounted.
Well, I guess I WAS missing something.

Yeah, I think I had forgotten to include the LibDems in the Labour-aligned tally. Thanks.

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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mr cheesy
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It's ok, I'm now not sure if this is including the Speaker.

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arse

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Stetson
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quote:
One can only hope that the egregious DUPEs are snatched away by aliens over the weekend.
Any chance of getting the Commons' opening prayer changed to Hail Mary?

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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Matt Black

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[Devil]

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Bishops Finger
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[Overused]

Meanwhile, it does seem as though aliens have indeed snatched away Nutty, Garbage, and The Kippers, so let us be thankful, amidst the brouhaha, for small mercies.

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Callan:
quote:

Constitutionally it's innocuous but given the toxicity of some of the DUP positions - on the issue of gay rights, for example, they make Tim Farron look like Peter Tatchell - it's not a good look and it completely nixes the British government's ability to play honest broker.

Oh I don't know; maybe satan was busy and didn't have nine other minions to spare so the DUP were the next best thing. But really, a coalition with UKIP would have been preferable.

Now, I'm off to wash out my mouth with bleach after saying that

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
[Overused]

Meanwhile, it does seem as though aliens have indeed snatched away Nutty, Garbage, and The Kippers, so let us be thankful, amidst the brouhaha, for small mercies.

IJ

Well, it wasn't us... we don't want them... [Killing me]

AFZ

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Og: Thread Killer
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The Tories would be able to form a perfectly functional government without the help of the DUP. But, it appears Mrs May has bought into the lie that a strong and stable government needs to be able to control a majority of MPs. Which is, of course, nonsense.

Rubbish.

quote:
A minority government is better than a majority in many ways. Most importantly they can't rely on simply whipping their MPs through the lobbies to get their way. They need to sell their policies, convincing at least a small number of the MPs from other parties to support them (or, at the very least a larger number to abstain). Policies which can generate cross-party support are IMO almost guaranteed to be better. And, being only a small number of seats short the only way they'd lose a no-confidence vote is if they do something so stupid that they can't even get all of their own MPs voting for them, in which case they don't deserve to govern.
I suggest you misunderstand the nature of the Westminster system. It simply isn't built for coalitions or cross-party agreement on the majority of issues - there simply isn't time to debate absolutely everything.
...

It works quite well in other parts of the world.


The issue is what is considered a vote of confidence that requires asking for an election.
Some say only a budget or a throne speech.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Og: Thread Killer
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
...

Labour didn’t lose the seats they were expected to in the north. Even though most of the UKIP vote went to the Conservatives, Labour also increased their vote numbers by enough to hold them off.

...

From what I was seeing last night the UKIP vote split about 40 Labour 60 Tory. That indicates that a post Brexit political landscape is very different then pre-Brexit. (Which also makes sense given how many Labour constituencies also voted Leave).

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Baptist Trainfan
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There are many countries where all governments are coalitions or informal associations of parties - especially where PR is practiced and there are many parties, none ever able to achieve a majority.

It can work well or it can be be a disaster!

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Doublethink.
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Surely it is clear to everyone that nobody has won. Yes, the Labour party did far better than almost anyone expected, but there is no sense that they could run a minority government with so many seats fewer than the Tories. So pretending that they could is either bollocks or a ploy.

Politicians have to pretend they have done better than they have done. But having said that, going from facing a wipe-out to a hung parliament under the circumstances of adverse press and a divided parliamentary party is pretty incredible and I suspect that many of the smiles are genuinely heart-felt.

Claiming to be ready to form a government is maybe an over-egged pudding, but what is an opposition for if not to oppose?

I think what Labour are proposing if they go into minority gov is interesting but may not work.

It is, to a certain extent, how the US legislature worked before it got gerrymandered into dysfunction.

Essentially, you propose a policy good enough to command bipartisan and public support - then go to a vote when you think there is enough support to get the vote through. It relies on people not voting solely tribally. McDonnell was arguing who's going to vote against policy x, that has been shown to have widespread public support - as the electorate will tear them a new one at the next ballot.

I think that bit might work, but it would be stymied because they wouldn't get the budget through. And the UK parliament just won't do the kind of fiscal cliff brinkmanship the US reps do. They'd just vote down the budget, followed shortly by the government losing a confidence vote because they can't pass the budget.

But the point is, it is not dependent on you having glued together an absolute majority - it relies on bipartisan support being won on the quality of the bills you offer to the house.

[ 09. June 2017, 17:58: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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I wonder if you could do it if you tied the budget element to the measure instead of a unified budget.

I propose to this house, x billion NHS investment, paid for by x% on income tax. Now vote.

I propose to this house this infrastructure investment, paid for by x% on corporation tax.

Etc etc.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I wonder if you could do it if you tied the budget element to the measure instead of a unified budget.

I propose to this house, x billion NHS investment, paid for by x% on income tax. Now vote.

I propose to this house this infrastructure investment, paid for by x% on corporation tax.

Etc etc.

Not sure this would work - presumably one needs to have an overall budget otherwise everyone accepts the "good" bits and rejects the "bad".

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arse

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PaulTH*
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
I make it 321 for Labour + everyone else:

By the time you take 7 off for the Shinners and 1 for the Speaker, the opposition can only muster 313. The Tories on their own have 318 plus an extra 10 if supported by the DUP. So there isn't any other maths that works in the new House of Commons unless Labour tries its hand at a minority government. But it won't get the chance if the largest party can pass a Queen's Speech and budget.

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Yours in Christ
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Doublethink.
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I wonder if you could do it if you tied the budget element to the measure instead of a unified budget.

I propose to this house, x billion NHS investment, paid for by x% on income tax. Now vote.

I propose to this house this infrastructure investment, paid for by x% on corporation tax.

Etc etc.

Not sure this would work - presumably one needs to have an overall budget otherwise everyone accepts the "good" bits and rejects the "bad".
I guess that's where lobbying whips and strategy come in. I think it's the only way it's possible. You'd need a sort of modular budget plan, for which you have an overall vision - you'd have to then tie your key concessions and most challenging funding issues to the most appealing spends.

I don't know if it's possible, it would be extremely difficult and different way of doing politics than we're used to - but potentially less yah-Boo adversarial than we've seen in the recent past.

I just don't know if it's possible.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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stonespring
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
The thought of any government being beholden to the poisonous fruit of Ian Paisley's halitosis-ridden bellowing, the closest thing Norn Iron has to a National Socialist party (Godwin? Who cares?) fills me with dread...

This is too bleak Matt. Remember that the DUP has essentially rolled up the old UUP - lots of their MPs are former UUP including Arlene Foster herself, as are most of their voters. That now means "most Unionists in NI". This is not a totally rabid constituency, any more than the fact that "most Nationalists in NI" voted for Sinn Fein indicates that they are all tommy-gun wielding terrorists.

Though it certainly depresses me (in a "no good deed goes unpunished" way) that UUP, SDLP & Alliance now have 0 seats between them. Ah well at least there's still Lady Sylvia Hermon.

I'm an out of touch American but I too had gotten the impression that the DUP had basically taken up the spot on the NI political/tribal spectrum formerly occupied by the UUP (and that the UUP had itself moved to the center as a result).

What are the main policy differences between the DUP and the Tories, especially on areas aside from the severity of Brexit, gay marriage, and non-NI specific areas?

How is the DUP a party of religious zealots aside from its opposition to gay marriage? DUP lawmakers may have said hateful things about gays (what have they said more recently?), but is gay marriage the only place these statements carry over into policy? Are they religious zealots in areas not related to homosexuality or the troubles?

Are people alleging that the DUP supports discrimination against Catholics? If so, in what way?

What are the DUP's current ties to terrorism? Does it just consist of reformed former Loyalist paramilitaries? Are people claiming that its members have done enough to disown Loyalist terrorism? Are people alleging that the DUP is protecting current Loyalist terrorist groups or providing indirect support to them in any way?

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:

I still don't like Jeremy Corbyn. The election campaign hasn't changed that. Nor have the Facebook sharing of his fans. And I don't think the adulation he's been getting recently is good for him. He isn't used it it. I strongly suspect that over the last 18 months it has been going to his head. I also still find John McDonnell sinister.

I find comments like this bemusing to be frank. Similarly the stuff about Ed Milliband 'stabbing his brother in the back' or 'being too hungry for power'.

I mean, yes, no, maybe, who cares? I mean unless I see evidence of it or evidence of it affecting what they do I'm not going to be too convinced. I think the way media forms perception is often underestimated - even its merely by omission rather than active distortion.

I generally think that how someone interacts with someone who is powerless is usually a good indication of their inner character, and on these grounds I'd favor Corbyn over most of the current front bench.

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Robert Armin

All licens'd fool
# 182

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Pinched from Facebook - will this new coalition be known as "May-DUP"?

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Keeping fit was an obsession with Fr Moity .... He did chin ups in the vestry, calisthenics in the pulpit, and had developed a series of Tai-Chi exercises to correspond with ritual movements of the Mass. The Antipope Robert Rankin

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HCH
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# 14313

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As a mere American, I cannot claim to understand all this. Am I correct in thinking that if no other party is willing to form a coalition with the Tories, British government will face a huge crisis? (I do understand that in this case, this is not occurring.)
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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by HCH:
As a mere American, I cannot claim to understand all this. Am I correct in thinking that if no other party is willing to form a coalition with the Tories, British government will face a huge crisis? (I do understand that in this case, this is not occurring.)

It isn't simple, but this might help.

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Hallellou, hallellou

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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That link is, indeed, helpful. Thank you!

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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Technically, the Queen appoints the prime minister, because they have the confidence the house, and asks them to form a government. The constitutional position dates from before the emergence of the modern party system - so the Queen and constitution require no specifics about party affiliations, just that the prime minister has enough MPs supporting them.

By convention, the leader of the largest party and/or incumbent gets first dibs on trying to form a government. If they can't, they go back to the Queen and ask them to pick someone else - the leader of the next largest party - if they can't and there is no-one else credible to ask, then parliament will be dissolved and a new election called.

All ministers / prime minister remain in post until replaced - so continue to run the country in the meanwhile, together with the civil service (who are supposed to be apolitical and mostly will not change between governments.)

[crosspost]

[ 09. June 2017, 20:09: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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We are used to the government changing within hours of the election result becoming public knowledge. The public clamour during the negotiations for the last coalition government was such that they couldn't continue negotiations beyond about 14 days.

So there is not much scope for buggering about before a general election becomes inevitable.

[ 09. June 2017, 20:16: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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Labour take Kensington by 20 votes.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
We are used to the government changing within hours of the election result becoming public knowledge. The public clamour during the negotiations for the last coalition government was such that they couldn't continue negotiations beyond about 14 days.

This is written into the Fixed Parliaments act btw.
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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Labour take Kensington by 20 votes.

Bloody hell ! Kensington ?

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Sarah G
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Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn thinks he won the election.

To be clear, he didn't. The winner gets to enact their manifesto, live in no.10, run the country, change things and that.

We will now have to endure four more years of the Tories, directed from the wings by the 'robust' DUP. It's the most vulnerable who will be paying for Labour's defeat.

Despite the Tory campaign being pitiful, the manifesto being designed to lose votes, and May having all the charisma of a ready-to-throw out piece of soap, CORBYN STILL MANAGED TO LOSE.

Next time it won't be so easy. I just hope the person after Corbyn is less extreme, more able to appeal to the centre, and actually win.

Ed Milliband would right now be posting last laugh pictures of himself eating bacon butties in the no.10 kitchen if he'd been in charge.

And this country would be a much better place for it.

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Cod
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# 2643

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Labour take Kensington by 20 votes.

Bloody hell ! Kensington ?
The constituency was redrawn in 2010. It's mostly North Kensington, which isn't that flash.

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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier

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