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Source: (consider it) Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430

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Please, please, Americans, pretty please, send us the Obamas to sort us out.

Soon as you like. Tomorrow would be good.

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
A friend said to me that Labour has to keep its UKIP wing happy, and therefore has to reject single market. This would be comical, well it is, if it wasn't also surreal and barking mad. There we are, the silly season has now been extended to a full twelve months. And it's free!

I've got a very uneasy feeling about all this - I think that when the dust has settled (a bit, such as and to the extent that it can) both Labour and the Conservatives will realise that they've managed to pull together mutually exclusive and contradictory coalitions behind their respective vote shares.

Especially as first reports seem to suggest that the Tories have done better among less educated lower social classes and leave voters, and Labour's taken a bigger proportion of UKIP than anyone saw coming *and* disproportionately middle class remainers.

Both sides are going to struggle to square those circles when it comes down to it into anything like a coherent programme for government.

*If* there's another general election quickly then you'd have to say Labour should walk it (although obviously we can't know how many people voted for them to either deny the Tories a huge majority or because they expected them to nonetheless lose so it was safe not to have to break the habit of a lifetime and vote for someone else).

At the same time though, it's worth noting amongst all the sound and fury that the Tory vote share was up too - so there's no guarantee that all the people who didn't want Jeremy last week are suddenly going to vote for him in 3 months time or whatever.

We're potentially in a baked-in deadlock.

What a complete mess.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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Survation has Labour six points clear today. Just saying...

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Forward the New Republic

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betjemaniac
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TLDR for the above post - the Tories have just run the most inept campaign of any party in my lifetime, under undoubtedly the worst leader, and still managed to stumble out ahead on points against a born campaigner.

The runes don't look particularly good for this getting sorted any time soon - although amidst all the fury about the DUP, given some of the things in their manifesto they could actually have the effect of dragging the Tories more to the centre on social care and a softer Brexit... which sounds ludicrous but actually...

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And is it true? For if it is....

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Survation has Labour six points clear today. Just saying...

Hence why I said if there was a GE soon/now they'd walk it.

That doesn't mean that in 6 months time when the farcical coalitions of voters both main parties seem to have put together have become more apparent it will still be true.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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And here, for your delectation and delight, are some anagrams on 'Arlene Foster' (leader of the DUMPS):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0Cs2GBWgAASTBC.jpg

You may, of course, choose that/those which you feel are apposite, whilst I get my coat, and close the door behind me.

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Bishops Finger
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Before I go to my martyrdom, here are some nice anagrams on 'Theresa May MP':

The smarmy ape.
Smear the PM, ya?
May hate sperm!
Her a steamy MP!
Am the year's MP!
A hasty, mere MP.

[Snigger]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Survation has Labour six points clear today. Just saying...

I would expect Labour to have a honeymoon for a while. But for how long? They will privately expect to win next time, but presumably, won't brag, fatal mistake.

I suppose the Tories have to be quiet now, and not frighten the old ladies and so on. But it all looks unstable. Corbyn is in pole position, unless he does something untoward, or the Tories have a Brexit triumph.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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quetzalcoatl
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A cunning plan being touted is that Tories let Labour in with a minority govt, and hope they mess up big time, thus allowing Tories back in.

However, this is a massive gamble. Any election could easily see Labour with a majority.

It's Clint Eastwood time - do you feel lucky, punk?

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
A cunning plan being touted is that Tories let Labour in with a minority govt, and hope they mess up big time, thus allowing Tories back in.

However, this is a massive gamble. Any election could easily see Labour with a majority.

It's Clint Eastwood time - do you feel lucky, punk?

I did make this suggestion above - they don't have to mess up, they just have to make unpopular decisions and get voted down on anything that looks progressive.

I can't see it happening myself.

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arse

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
A cunning plan being touted is that Tories let Labour in with a minority govt, and hope they mess up big time, thus allowing Tories back in.

However, this is a massive gamble. Any election could easily see Labour with a majority.

It's Clint Eastwood time - do you feel lucky, punk?

Seems a bit too risky to go for to me. The one that I think *might* have some traction is trying to run as is on everything but Brexit, where they stand up and make a full and open offer to Labour to come in on the negotiations - Starmer as deputy at the department, etc.

It would be *very* difficult, given the clock is ticking on the negotiations anyway, for Labour to get away with saying no if the alternative is the Tories somehow cock it all up *then* the government falls when time's run out. Of course, Labour standing aside while the Tories screw it all up would bury the Tories at the subsequent election, but it would also ensure a coating of ordure for themselves which they might find difficult to shake off too.

At that point, the much spoken about before the election new centrist party comes riding into the vacuum.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Rocinante
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It looks as though a lot of people who voted Remain, plus some who didn't vote in the referendum for whatever reason (some were not old enough) thought they could help derail Brexit by voting labour. This was obviously a vain hope, the commitment to honour the referendum result is in the manifesto, and Corbyn & McDonnell were reluctant remainers at best.

All moot anyway. The Brexit negotiations are now likely to consist of the EU handing us a list of demands and telling us to come back when we've agreed to them.

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
A cunning plan being touted is that Tories let Labour in with a minority govt, and hope they mess up big time, thus allowing Tories back in.

However, this is a massive gamble. Any election could easily see Labour with a majority.

It's Clint Eastwood time - do you feel lucky, punk?

A Labour minority government would get some of the more urgent business done, pull the trigger, and slap down another, fully-costed manifesto.

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Forward the New Republic

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quetzalcoatl
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But, but, but, we want a full and fruitful trading relation with the EU, with regulatory harmonization, and security cooperation, that's why we want to leave. And other idiocies.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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North East Quine

Curious beastie
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Originally posted by Iam Climacus:

quote:
Can someone explain, or point me to an explainer on, Scottish sectarianism? Thanks.
Now that we are on p25, this question from p24 risks being lost.

I'm not the persaon to answer, as I live in a part of Scotlnd largely untouched by sectarianism. The main areas affected are those on the west coast of Scotland which experienced the greatest Irish Catholic immigration in the late C19th / early C20th. By the late C20th, sectarianism had moved away from the churches and was focussed on football (Glasgow Rangers = Protestant, Glasgow Celtic = Catholic, Edinburgh Hearts =Protestant, Edinburgh Hibernian = Catholic, Dundee United = Catholic, Dundee FC=Protestant). Then the football clubs and the law started to crack down on it. E.g. sectarian songs are banned from football grounds, and from public transport carrying fans to football matches.

It's still there, though.

Someone living in the Central Belt will be able to give a better answer.

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
A cunning plan being touted is that Tories let Labour in with a minority govt, and hope they mess up big time, thus allowing Tories back in.

However, this is a massive gamble. Any election could easily see Labour with a majority.

It's Clint Eastwood time - do you feel lucky, punk?

A Labour minority government would get some of the more urgent business done, pull the trigger, and slap down another, fully-costed manifesto.
Reminds me of 'Arold in 66, after he'd scraped home in 64, he just stuck his pipe in his gob, and he was home free. And he came back in 74, and then, well, 74. Then the light began to fade, I guess, poor old sod.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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mr cheesy
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How about this for a conspiracy: Labour allow the Tory gov to limp on during the EU negotiations, knowing that they're in no position to try to muscle hardline views into the negotiation. These go on but are not particularly fruitful.

The entire Tory frontbench knacker themselves out totally what with needing to rush back to Westminster on every vote, needing to stay up late and trying to placate increasingly irate DUP-ers and Tory headbangers demanding things in return for support.

After nearly 2 years of running them ragged, Labour lights the blue fuse and sets in place a surprise manifesto saying that the EU deal is a shite one and that they're going to declare to the EU that they're not going to leave after all - so the election becomes effectively a second referendum..

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arse

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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
TLDR for the above post - the Tories have just run the most inept campaign of any party in my lifetime, under undoubtedly the worst leader, and still managed to stumble out ahead on points against a born campaigner.

Old people vote in greater percentages and numbers. Old people tend to vote Conservative.
Young people, who have a greater percentage of liberals, tend not to vote in high percentages.
Of those left over, most tend to vote status quo, even if they are dissatisfied.
All the advantages, save for reason, were on the Tory side.
This is the case of Usain Bolt nearly being caught at the finish, not a stumbling runner winning anyway.

[ 11. June 2017, 16:04: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Sober Preacher's Kid

Presbymethegationalist
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
A cunning plan being touted is that Tories let Labour in with a minority govt, and hope they mess up big time, thus allowing Tories back in.

However, this is a massive gamble. Any election could easily see Labour with a majority.

It's Clint Eastwood time - do you feel lucky, punk?

A Labour minority government would get some of the more urgent business done, pull the trigger, and slap down another, fully-costed manifesto.
Reminds me of 'Arold in 66, after he'd scraped home in 64, he just stuck his pipe in his gob, and he was home free. And he came back in 74, and then, well, 74. Then the light began to fade, I guess, poor old sod.
Have you been taking lessons from Martin60?
[Paranoid]

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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.

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betjemaniac
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Just in case people want a sample of the anger currently being pointed at McDonnell. The sense of betrayal is visceral.

I've got no problem with how anyone voted, and would much rather they did than didn't, but it'd be nice to think they'd start reading the manifestos of the people they were voting for.

Peston on Twitter

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And is it true? For if it is....

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quetzalcoatl
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Sober Preachers' Kid - What, you mean a long memory? I remember the bingo callers, number ten, 'arold's den. What the hell was I doing playing bingo?

[ 11. June 2017, 16:10: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

After nearly 2 years of running them ragged, Labour lights the blue fuse and sets in place a surprise manifesto saying that the EU deal is a shite one and that they're going to declare to the EU that they're not going to leave after all - so the election becomes effectively a second referendum..

Well, I read with interest and thought it was plausible until I got to this bit - firstly, what about their own Leave voters, and secondly, what if the EU puts out a statement in response saying that's not an option, or "ok, but no opt-outs and sign here to adopt the Euro"?

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And is it true? For if it is....

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mr cheesy
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He's talking about Harold Wilson and the 1974-79 government, the last time we had this kind of mess.

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arse

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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200

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Twitter has no middle ground.

Either everybody is going to hell

or

PUPPIES!!!

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
Well, I read with interest and thought it was plausible until I got to this bit - firstly, what about their own Leave voters, and secondly, what if the EU puts out a statement in response saying that's not an option, or "ok, but no opt-outs and sign here to adopt the Euro"?

The EU have already said it is an option. Simply declare that we're not leaving after all. Sorry chaps, the Tories went off on some weird flight of fancy.

I don't think the Leave supporters are going to be a major problem if the Tories limp on for months and the only thing they get out of the Brexit negotiations is something which would obviously ruin the country.

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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Well, 64 to 66 was the first parallel, although not a very good one, as Labour did win in 64, but narrowly. And very narrowly in 74, but 'Arold hung on, and Callaghan.

Damn, I'm old.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
The EU have already said it is an option. Simply declare that we're not leaving after all. Sorry chaps, the Tories went off on some weird flight of fancy.


If we can just resume on the same terms as before then there might be something in it, if there are caveats or new things to sign up to (currency, etc) then I wouldn't be anywhere near as confident.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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I wonder if the Brexit fervour will start to fade? May has sucked the air out of it, to start with, and UKIP looks like a faded balloon. Who has the energy now to rage against EU?

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
If we can just resume on the same terms as before then there might be something in it, if there are caveats or new things to sign up to (currency, etc) then I wouldn't be anywhere near as confident.

IANAL, but as far as I understand, those who wrote Article 50 say that as we can declare it enacted, we can also declare it un-enacted. Given that we're still in until we're out, it is hard to see how we'd have to renegotiate a position vis-a-vis the position we have in the EU, given that they're what we have in hand.

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arse

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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I wonder if the Brexit fervour will start to fade? May has sucked the air out of it, to start with, and UKIP looks like a faded balloon. Who has the energy now to rage against EU?

You'd think so, but I've been in some very Brexity places since Thursday and the sample chat in the pubs of the M62 corridor is "I voted Labour because when it comes down to it I'll get more from them than the Tories and they'll still give us a hard Brexit."

Trying to align that with my southern dwelling university educated friends who've just voted Labour to stop Brexit is where I see the fault lines starting to develop even in Labour's apparent "one more heave" triumph.

Seriously, when the dust settles, I think both the two big parties have got problems to face.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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Sorry that made more sense in my head than seeing it written down. I mean we're in the EU, we don't lose stuff until we're out.

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arse

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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Sorry that made more sense in my head than seeing it written down. I mean we're in the EU, we don't lose stuff until we're out.

No I got that - one of those times I wish this place had a like button then I could have just shorthanded it and you'd have known.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Can someone explain how May saw the campaign and the vote - the hammering the tories took over the state of the NHS - and thought, I know, I'll keep the same health secretary, that'll help ?

Even if she felt she had to keep rhyming slang in the cabinet, wouldn't it have made sense to at least move him ?

[ 11. June 2017, 16:59: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Can someone explain how May saw the campaign and the vote - the hammering the tories took over the state of the NHS - and thought, I know, I'll keep the same health secretary, that'll help ?

Even if she felt she had to keep rhyming slang in the cabinet, wouldn't it have made sense to at least move him ?

no - he's been soaking up attack after attack, humiliation, excoriation and still getting on with it. I would imagine the thinking is no different now than it was before the election. There's no point in destroying more than one person in the SoS for Health role if you're not going to change the overall direction.

Of course, whether you should change the overall direction is another thing entirely. But if you're not going to (and IMO this strongly suggests that he's doing as he's told rather than what he wants to do) then there's literally no point in moving him and passing the "stand here and be shot at" brief onto some other person.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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If he's doing as he is told, they should seriously consider rewriting his instructions - because everybody's noticed it's not working.

[ 11. June 2017, 17:06: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Whether it's working or not surely depends on the plan. If it's working at the moment then the plan is clearly to totally destroy the NHS.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
But if you're not going to (and IMO this strongly suggests that he's doing as he's told rather than what he wants to do)

You ignore the possibility that what he's been told to do is also what he wants to do - given his background, I can imagine that the particular set of policies could be ones that he finds himself in agreement with (in the same sense that if you are surrounded by bankers then a financial instrument is often the way you try and solve everything - see 'dementia tax').
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007  |  IP: Logged
Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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Ongoing trainwreck though it may be, one Good Thing about the whole election business is the increasing diversity amongst MPs, in the best possible way (IMHO):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40232272

Elect more women, physically-challenged, LGBT+ etc., and we'll be much better off!

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
But if you're not going to (and IMO this strongly suggests that he's doing as he's told rather than what he wants to do)

You ignore the possibility that what he's been told to do is also what he wants to do - given his background, I can imagine that the particular set of policies could be ones that he finds himself in agreement with (in the same sense that if you are surrounded by bankers then a financial instrument is often the way you try and solve everything - see 'dementia tax').
true - wasn't doing it consciously though. either way no one else in their right mind would touch it.

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And is it true? For if it is....

Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
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# 1984

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She has given Michael Gove a job. Michael fucking Gove.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Bishops Finger
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Fret ye not - the fucktards will all be out of a job soon....and every one of them will have severe gunshot wounds to their feet.

I live in hope....

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Bishops Finger
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Meanwhile, over the Channel (in my next nearest county!*), things are looking up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40242531

(*it takes me less time to get from here to Paris, than from here to Birmingham...).

IJ (pro-Europe, EU, and Euro)

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
She has given Michael Gove a job. Michael fucking Gove.

Possibly my first ever agreement with George Osborne. A dead woman walking. This is just part of the evidence.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
true - wasn't doing it consciously though. either way no one else in their right mind would touch it.

Possibly. Depending on how venal they were I suppose.

OTOH lets look at this from another angle - he's allegedly very unpopular - what does this actually translate to in terms of reaching the bubble within which he is in? The odd misprouncation of his name and the occasional scathing article in the Guardian?

Really? In terms of measurable opprobrium directed at him personally, what does it amount to?

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PaulTH*
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# 320

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To get some perspective, the Tories polled 42.4% of the vote, their highest since 1983. They also got more votes than Tony Blair achieved in his famous 1997 landslide. That's hardly a rout. Yet it pales into insignificance against Labour's hike of 10% in its share, the most since Attlee in 1945. What this election shows is how hopelessly divided the country is now. I long for a return to consensus politics, and I see PR as the only way of achieving it. But I won't hold my breath. If May's government collapses and Corbyn gets to Downing St, he'll see a 40% share of the vote as a mandate for a radical agenda. Which it wouldn't be under PR. The big two will never agree to a change of system which could alter their five years dictatorships which seem to be reversed and reinstated every time power changes hands.

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Yours in Christ
Paul

Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
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# 1984

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So she hasn't actually got a deal with the DUP yet, the deadline is 14 days, so she's got until the 23rd of the month technically - not sure when the Queen's speech is actually due.

The Irish government is also expressing concerns about The DUP deal.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Saw May talking to BBC news channel, again is speaking in this wierd scripted way. That woman just can not answer a question.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Arethosemyfeet
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# 17047

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quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Originally posted by Iam Climacus:

quote:
Can someone explain, or point me to an explainer on, Scottish sectarianism? Thanks.
Now that we are on p25, this question from p24 risks being lost.

I'm not the persaon to answer, as I live in a part of Scotlnd largely untouched by sectarianism. The main areas affected are those on the west coast of Scotland which experienced the greatest Irish Catholic immigration in the late C19th / early C20th. By the late C20th, sectarianism had moved away from the churches and was focussed on football (Glasgow Rangers = Protestant, Glasgow Celtic = Catholic, Edinburgh Hearts =Protestant, Edinburgh Hibernian = Catholic, Dundee United = Catholic, Dundee FC=Protestant). Then the football clubs and the law started to crack down on it. E.g. sectarian songs are banned from football grounds, and from public transport carrying fans to football matches.

It's still there, though.

Someone living in the Central Belt will be able to give a better answer.

I'm by no means an expert either, but I've encountered sectarianism in the wild (as it were) around here. There are elements of the Church of Scotland that still harbour some pretty rabid anti-Catholic sentiments, to the point where the minister here had to preface the creed with a reminder/reassurance that catholic means universal and doesn't refer to Rome.
Posts: 2933 | From: Hebrides | Registered: Apr 2012  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
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# 1984

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Here is a potted history of the issue in Scotland, Glasgow specifically - but is a good general description of the context.

[ 11. June 2017, 19:35: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
She has given Michael Gove a job. Michael fucking Gove.

The next Prime Minister re-enters Cabinet...?
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009  |  IP: Logged



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