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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Oops - your Trump presidency discussion thread
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Tony Schwartz, who wrote ‘The Art of the Deal’ for Trump said “Trump is angrier and more self-absorbed than when I first knew him. We must not let his culture of fear stop us speaking out “
quote:
About the only thing Trump truly has in common with his base is that he feels every bit as aggrieved as they do, despite his endless privilege. No amount of money, fame or power has been enough to win him the respect he so insatiably craves. His anger over this perceived injustice is visceral and authentic. Trump’s unwinding of government programmes such as Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act will fuel yet more fear among the millions of people will lose their health care in the year ahead. The tax plan Trump pushed through most benefits him, his family and his fellow billionaires and provides the least relief to those who need it most. In both cases, the victims of these policies will include millions of his supporters who may find someone else to blame, but whose suffering will inexorably increase.
Link
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
He's not running a con now, but his modus operandi is that of a con artist.
He reminds me of con artists I've known and one I investigated in depth. He also reminds me a lot of Rick in A perfect spy, the protagonist's father who is based on Le Carré's own father.
Con artists are complex personalities. When you're outside the ambit of the con artist you can often see through them plain as day, but when you are in their thrall you stay mesmerised even as a little voice tells you you are being conned, because they appeal to something in you. And even after they've ripped you off for lots of money, or when you know they've defrauded many others, you still have grudging admiration for them and miss their aura.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I don't see that. There is no con here: Trump is being quite opaque in saying and doing things that appeal to his base.
Sorry, I didn't mean opaque but the opposite - transparent!
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
During the election it was a frequent complaint from the Democratic side that the media was focusing on the minutia of Trump's ever utterance and therefore allowing him to set the agenda and missing the wider picture.
Actually the biggest Democratic complaint about the media's coverage of the 2016 Presidential Election was the obsessive focus on e-mail management practices at the State Department from 2009 to 2013.
Certainly subsequent to the leaks yes. However in the period from the middle of 2016 to late 2017 there were frequent complaints about the media coverage of Trump - its fairly easy to dig up articles on the topic from that period.
[ 18. January 2018, 10:06: Message edited by: chris stiles ]
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I don't see that. There is no con here: Trump is being quite opaque in saying and doing things that appeal to his base.
Sorry, I didn't mean opaque but the opposite - transparent!
But he's not. Every week there's at least one article in the news about some group of people he's betrayed, and shocked little racists going, "But we never thought he would do that to US!"
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Then there's the Russian influence investigation.
The Russian thing is a symptom rather than an actual cause. I also doubt if any investigations will dig up a sufficiently clear conspiracy that Trump will be forced to resign by virtue of that alone.
The largest benefit is likely to be that of creating a large enough cloud around the Trump name that Ivanka Trump doesn't run for office in a few years time.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
The Russian thing is a symptom rather than an actual cause. I also doubt if any investigations will dig up a sufficiently clear conspiracy that Trump will be forced to resign by virtue of that alone.
Wolff again: quote:
This was the peculiar and haunting consensus—not that Trump was guilty of all that he was accused of but that he was guilty of so much else. It was all too possible that the hardly plausible would lead to the totally credible.
As I said ages ago, it's like Al Capone - brought down for humble tax fraud.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
This was the peculiar and haunting consensus—not that Trump was guilty of all that he was accused of but that he was guilty of so much else. It was all too possible that the hardly plausible would lead to the totally credible.
As I said ages ago, it's like Al Capone - brought down for humble tax fraud.
Yes, I'm absolutely sure that hunting through Trumps financial affairs would prove to be more fruitful if one wanted to find evidence with which to convict him - in reality I doubt if this would happen, primarily because of the precedent it would then set.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I don't see that. There is no con here: Trump is being quite opaque in saying and doing things that appeal to his base.
Sorry, I didn't mean opaque but the opposite - transparent!
But he's not. Every week there's at least one article in the news about some group of people he's betrayed, and shocked little racists going, "But we never thought he would do that to US!"
I haven’t heard a whole lot of that myself. My afternoon drive-time hate listen (because afternoon traffic doesn’t suck enough) is a local conservative talk show called (without a hint of irony) “Rush to Reason.” Two ordinary, average guys (yep, that’s their theme song) discuss the issues of the day using “logic and reason.”
These guys are classic Trump voters. And to hear it from them, Trump is the lone sane voice who gets it. They see non-citizens getting thrown out, regulations slashed, tax cuts that will surely trickle down, a conservative Supreme Court justice, and a bunch of liberal crybabies losing their shit over every move, and they love it.
2020’s going to be close. If it’s not all hands on deck throughout, he’ll easily get four more years. The Trump base doesn’t care about your “voting against your own self interest” take. They know what they like, and he’s it.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
These guys are classic Trump voters. And to hear it from them, Trump is the lone sane voice who gets it. They see non-citizens getting thrown out, regulations slashed, tax cuts that will surely trickle down, a conservative Supreme Court justice, and a bunch of liberal crybabies losing their shit over every move, and they love it.
I would agree with this assessment - for the most part the worst impacts of the Trump policies haven't hit his base so far, and insofar as they have, his base doesn't care as long as he continues to promise to hurt liberals even more.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
These guys are classic Trump voters. And to hear it from them, Trump is the lone sane voice who gets it. They see non-citizens getting thrown out, regulations slashed, tax cuts that will surely trickle down, a conservative Supreme Court justice, and a bunch of liberal crybabies losing their shit over every move, and they love it.
I would agree with this assessment - for the most part the worst impacts of the Trump policies haven't hit his base so far, and insofar as they have, his base doesn't care as long as he continues to promise to hurt liberals even more.
A conventional politician tries to win votes by enacting policies (or promising to enact policies) that will make the lives of his constituents (or at least a majority of his constituents) better. Trump's main appeal comes not from this but from his promise to smite the "enemies" of his supporters. So far he seems to be delivering on that.
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
2020’s going to be close. If it’s not all hands on deck throughout, he’ll easily get four more years. The Trump base doesn’t care about your “voting against your own self interest” take. They know what they like, and he’s it.
I'm not sure Trump is as formidable electorally as some here maintain. He'll have the advantages of incumbency in 2020, but he'll be struggling in other areas. A lot of Trump's appeal is racial resentment. The conventional wisdom among Republican presidential candidates up to this point was that overt appeals to racism were a net negative. In some ways Trump has proved this to be true. Trump actually got a smaller share of the white electorate (57%) than Mitt Romney did in 2012 (59%). Add in the fact that the white electorate was a smaller proportion of the vote in 2016 than it was in 2012 (71% vs. 72%) and we can see that, overall, Trump's strategy is a net vote loser. This translated into a somewhat flukey win through the geography involved in trading the votes of college-educated white voters for less educated white voters (and having the FBI Director publicly call his opponent a crook less than two weeks before election day). I'm not sure this is a winning strategy going forward unless the non-white vote can be dramatically suppressed.
Add in to this the fact that Donald Trump is incredibly unpopular. No other American president has had approval ratings consistently below 40% during their first year in office, and no first term American president has ever had an approval rating that low when the unemployment rate was below 5%. This is literally unprecedented. (Unpresidented?)
This doesn't necessarily mean that Trump's re-election prospects are doomed. Any major party presidential nominee has a non-trivial chance of victory. I'm just saying that he faces more obstacles than are commonly acknowledged.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Add in to this the fact that Donald Trump is incredibly unpopular. No other American president has had approval ratings consistently below 40% during their first year in office, and no first term American president has ever had an approval rating that low when the unemployment rate was below 5%. This is literally unprecedented. (Unpresidented?)
The thing is that there is a fairly large percentage of that 39% who are fanatically pro-Trump as so he can rely on turnout from them. Plus various groups like the evangelicals and the rich will show up and contribute heavily due particular policies (supreme court appointees and tax cuts)
quote:
This doesn't necessarily mean that Trump's re-election prospects are doomed. Any major party presidential nominee has a non-trivial chance of victory. I'm just saying that he faces more obstacles than are commonly acknowledged.
and how they get translated into reality really depends on whom the Democrats run against him.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
He's also managed to tank American popularity worldwide. These are the kinds of polls I am certain none of the staffers dare to show him.
There's some evidence that the Trump opposition is fired up and ready to fight. It is shatteringly clear by now that turning out the vote is crucial. We all know now (right?) that we have to vote, every election without exception, until they shovel us under.
Another major issue is the clownish incompetence of the Trump administration. I could supply you many many more links on this point. As it becomes more and more evident that they're not doing their proper jobs, people are less inclined to keep them in office.
Yes, the diehards will hang on to the bitter end. But they're not the majority, nowhere near. And the current regime seems to be doing a lot of things to alienate them.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
These are undoubtedly the same people that trumpy was thinking about when he said shithole and when he said both sides re white supremacy people. Which someone said on the radio here is merely a throwback to the American "founding fathers".
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Another major issue is the clownish incompetence of the Trump administration. I could supply you many many more links on this point. As it becomes more and more evident that they're not doing their proper jobs, people are less inclined to keep them in office.
This is only an issue in the minds of his supporters if they are exposed to it, and generally Fox and co are either avoiding the issue or claiming Democratic intransigence as the problem. Just because the GOP has control of both houses doesn't mean they cant spin that they were the victims
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Just because the GOP has control of both houses doesn't mean they cant spin that they were the victims
They can spin anything to their advantage because their base is incapable of hearing anything negative about them.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
Here is an article about Australians' attitudes to Trump, faith that the US will act responsibly in the world, and the need for the ANZUS alliance. It's from June last year. The author is one of the most respected Journos in the country, winding down to a well-earned retirement. Actually, I think her veins run with ink and she will never retire.
The Conversation: Grattan Article
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Just because the GOP has control of both houses doesn't mean they cant spin that they were the victims
They can spin anything to their advantage because their base is incapable of hearing anything negative about them.
In which case you can't necessarily take solace from his low approval ratings.
There's a phenomena of late of the very angry winner (see also Brexit), and adopting this position makes it easier to run with all the advantages of being an insurgent even when one has been in power. It is highly likely that come the day, all Republican voters will turn out to vote Trump, because the voting bloc is made up of constituencies that is willing to trade everything for a single issue that they feel strongly about.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Hedgehog
Ship's Shortstop
# 14125
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
There's a plethora of first-year pieces about Lyin' Don but this one is especially sound.
Will Bunch's column is also worth a read.
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"We must regain the conviction that we need one another, that we have a shared responsibility for others and the world, and that being good and decent are worth it."--Pope Francis, Laudato Si'
Posts: 2740 | From: Delaware, USA | Registered: Sep 2008
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Indeed it is, but profoundly disturbing. George Orwell was so right....
One can only hope (and God forgive me for saying it) that the Lying Leader of Shitholes (or Shithouses) does indeed become incapacitated by a stroke or heart attack.
Otherwise, America, you're well-and-truly f**ked (but the sensible ones among you knew that already, alas).
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
Why am I hearing commentary that Bad Man could be re-elected? Is it scare-mongering? media wanting airtime? trying to motivate the opposition? possibly could happen?
I realize anything is possible but somethings are more likely than others.
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
It's 300-odd days to the 2018 election. Everyone knew it would be a long slog; we're not going to give up.
I blew my knee out this year and can no longer walk for nine hours, and also I have a class. However, I'm thinking of driving down to the Mall in DC on Saturday and giving a carload of protest signs away. All the old favorites, "Putin Your Money Where Your Mouth Is" and "My Pussy My Rules."
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
It's 300-odd days to the 2018 election. Everyone knew it would be a long slog; we're not going to give up.
291, not that I'm counting.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
Why am I hearing commentary that Bad Man could be re-elected? Is it scare-mongering? media wanting airtime? trying to motivate the opposition? possibly could happen?
I realize anything is possible but somethings are more likely than others.
Step outside you bubble and tell me why he is not going to get re-elected.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Step outside you bubble and tell me why he is not going to get re-elected.
I've already noted some of the obstacles facing a Trump re-election*. Another is that when you combine the botched Puerto Rico recovery with his recent comments about Haiti (and, by implication, Haitians) it's almost like he's deliberately trying to lose Florida.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Step outside you bubble and tell me why he is not going to get re-elected.
I've already noted some of the obstacles facing a Trump re-election*. Another is that when you combine the botched Puerto Rico recovery with his recent comments about Haiti (and, by implication, Haitians) it's almost like he's deliberately trying to lose Florida.
So long as the Democrats select a nice, boring low-profile candidate, Trump may not get re-elected.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
I blew my knee out this year and can no longer walk for nine hours, and also I have a class. However, I'm thinking of driving down to the Mall in DC on Saturday and giving a carload of protest signs away. All the old favorites, "Putin Your Money Where Your Mouth Is" and "My Pussy My Rules."
I must be old school… I am pining after those SHOW US YOUR TAXES ones.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
Why am I hearing commentary that Bad Man could be re-elected? Is it scare-mongering? media wanting airtime? trying to motivate the opposition? possibly could happen?
I realize anything is possible but somethings are more likely than others.
Up until election night 2016, everyone knew that Clinton winning was more likely than Trump winning. I was laughing at the few shipmates who were warning that it wasn't going to be an early night. Then it didn't happen.
I frankly do not trust the predictive power of popularity poll numbers right now. Historically low or not, I can't shake my suspicion that Trump is going to pull in somewhere between 45-47% of the popular vote. I hope he doesn't, but unless there is a complete economic meltdown before 2020, I think it can happen. Depending on where that % comes from, it might be enough to grab another electoral college victory.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
I frankly do not trust the predictive power of popularity poll numbers right now. Historically low or not, I can't shake my suspicion that Trump is going to pull in somewhere between 45-47% of the popular vote. I hope he doesn't, but unless there is a complete economic meltdown before 2020, I think it can happen. Depending on where that % comes from, it might be enough to grab another electoral college victory.
Absent a significant third party run, even a major party candidate who loses in a blowout will get 45% of the popular vote. Michael Dukakis and John McCain both did.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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jedijudy
Organist of the Jedi Temple
# 333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
...I'm thinking of driving down to the Mall in DC on Saturday and giving a carload of protest signs away. All the old favorites, "Putin Your Money Where Your Mouth Is" and "My Pussy My Rules."
I liked the "Truth Decay" comment in Hedgehog's link. Might make a decent sign!
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Jasmine, little cat with a big heart.
Posts: 18017 | From: 'Twixt the 'Glades and the Gulf | Registered: Aug 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
I am perfectly happy to see Crooked Don get 45% of the vote. As long as the other candidate gets 55%.
I'm sure you have all seen (because how could you avoid it?) the news that Lyin' Don was dallying with a porn star shortly after marrying his current wife. It is all sleazy and typical, not worthy of your attention, except only one detail: the spanking of the future president with a copy of Forbes magazine.
Immediately the finer minds on FB have veered off onto the much more interesting question of how Forbes should respond to this novel use of their product. My suggestion was, "We do not approve the use of our publication for this purpose. Any deleterious consequences are totally on you." A friend immediately added, "We do not recommend using our electronic edition in this manner." Also new slogans for the magazine ("Forbes: Everything You Like About Business... and More"), cover design ('their next cover full black with the faintest hint of a butt print'), and entertainment tips ("Maybe Trump's one-year anniversary inauguration party at Mar-A-Lago can have one of those Bar Mitzvah photo booths where you get superimposed on a magazine cover like Forbes").
We get our amusements as we can in these dark days.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
So we are in agreement there- Trump's very likely going to get at least 45% of the popular vote, even if his numbers are currently historically low.
Here's the thing- 45.7% of the popular vote got McCain blown out in the EC. 46.1% of the popular vote gave Trump a comfortable EC edge. It's a screwy system, and an EC victory is entirely possible with Trump's likely range of votes.
All I'm saying is that I won't rest easy on the 2020 election until Trump's replacement is (hopefully) sworn in three years from now. I'm certainly going to take election day 2020 off to drive people to the polls, or do whatever else needs to be done to secure the D nominee Colorado's EC votes. I hope the rest of the party is ready to do the same.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
I'm sure you have all seen (because how could you avoid it?) the news that Lyin' Don was dallying with a porn star shortly after marrying his current wife. It is all sleazy and typical, not worthy of your attention, except only one detail: the spanking of the future president with a copy of Forbes magazine.
A copy of Forbes magazine with a picture of Trump and two of his kids on the cover. It's that little extra bit of squickiness that separates Trump sleaze from the more run-of-the-mill sleaze.
A more interesting question that remains unanswered about a presidential candidate paying hush money to a former mistress in the middle of a campaign is "where did the money come from?" Trump is notoriously tight-fisted with his own funds. You might recall that John Edwards got into trouble for allegedly dipping into campaign funds to cover mistress-related expenses. Did Trump do the same?
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
It is sadly disappointing for him because they have laid out a vast first-year celebration for him and charged people $100,000 a ticket to get in.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
It is sadly disappointing for him because they have laid out a vast first-year celebration for him and charged people $100,000 a ticket to get in.
I hope people didn't pre-pay. I imagine refunds will be slow or non-existent.
Then again, anyone stupid enough to pay $100,000 per couple for this nonsense deserves whatever happens to their precious money.
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Dammit. Somebody give him that cognition test again.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
As far as the shutdown goes, a bigger question than "where's Trump?" is "where's Pence?". He's supposed to be headed to the Middle East tonight. One of the few duties of the vice president* is to break tied votes in the Senate. Does he cancel on his visit to American allies, or does he shirk his Constitutional duty?
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
If the Great Leader is putting off his usual retreat to the fastnesses of Maralago, then the US of A is clearly in deep brown cacky.
From this side of the pond, it's not easy to see how disastrous a shut-down would be for the Republicans, but, hopefully, if it does occur, it will indeed hit them where it hurts.
Trouble is, I suppose, that lots of harmless folk get caught up in it as well...
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
From this side of the pond, it's not easy to see how disastrous a shut-down would be for the Republicans, but, hopefully, if it does occur, it will indeed hit them where it hurts.
The pending government shutdown seems to be the product of a lot of careless errors by Republicans. One of them was the rejection of the bipartisan Graham-Durbin bill. This was the bill that would have resolved the DACA situation (and introduced other immigration reforms) which Trump famously rejected in scatological terms. This rejection convinced most legislators that the only way to protect the DREAMers is to attach the bill to a piece of must-pass legislation, which is how those two issues got linked. So that was an own-goal.
The other issue is needing 60 votes to pass a cloture motion in the Senate. Since there are only 50 Republican Senators present (John McCain is currently in Arizona recovering from cancer treatments) that means 10 Democrats would need to cross the aisle for anything to pass. Possibly more, since Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, and a few others Republican Senators have indicated that they're unwilling to vote for the bill the House passed earlier.
Now you'd think that a system would be designed to get around cloture rules (the 60 vote supermajority requirement in the Senate) for important stuff like keeping the government running, and you'd be right! The Senate can pass a reconciliation bill with a bare majority and no filibustering allowed, but they can only do one reconciliation bill per year, unless there's a reconciliation bill from a previous year that wasn't voted on. Conveniently the 2017 and 2018 reconciliation bills were available for the Senate's use. Unfortunately they used the 2017 reconciliation bill in their failed attempt to repeal Obamacare and they used the 2018 reconciliation bill to pass their tax reform. Apparently the priorities of Senate Republicans can be ordered thus:
- Take affordable health care away from millions of Americans
- Shovel more money into the pockets of the already-wealthy
- Keep the government working
So the shutdown, if it happens, is the consequence of a lot of hubris and some very easily foreseeable consequences of legislative ineptitude.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Thanks for the explanation. Own goals, indeed.
![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif)
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
This brinksmanship is not yet over. I have a class in a federal building tomorrow in DC, and I hope they don't close the government, otherwise I may not be able to get in.
For your further (free) reading pleasure, the reason Trump wasted his $130K paying off the porn star is because nobody cares, now, if he sleeps with porn stars or not. The Falwells, for instance, instantly discovered it was not a sin.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
I'm surprised he paid her so little.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
She had to start talking to a periodical (it's the one that has actually published now) before he would actually cough up.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
This brinksmanship is not yet over. I have a class in a federal building tomorrow in DC, and I hope they don't close the government, otherwise I may not be able to get in.
What kind of class?
Who is paying for this class, and why are you required to attend?
Why is this class in a Federal building?
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
This brinksmanship is not yet over. I have a class in a federal building tomorrow in DC, and I hope they don't close the government, otherwise I may not be able to get in.
What kind of class?
Who is paying for this class, and why are you required to attend?
Why is this class in a Federal building?
Should I ask where?
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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