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Source: (consider it) Thread: Could there be a coup?
betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'm also extreme uncertain as to what the Conservative party's response to one would be.

Outraged horror, the same as anyone else I should think. Weirdly I think some of the current Labour party might quite get quite excited by one though if they thought it would be supporting them against the Hated Tories (TM).

Overall, I think we're safe enough.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'm also extreme uncertain as to what the Conservative party's response to one would be.

Outraged horror, the same as anyone else I should think.
I don't share your confidence. I don't think you share your confidence either, given that a military coups are almost universally against leftist governments.

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Improbable Botany

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'm also extreme uncertain as to what the Conservative party's response to one would be.

Outraged horror, the same as anyone else I should think.
I don't share your confidence. I don't think you share your confidence either, given that a military coups are almost universally against leftist governments.
We can agree to disagree on who has confidence in what, but I will draw the line on being told what it is I think...

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Doc Tor
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Fair enough. Though examples of military coups against right-wing governments are as rare as hen's teeth (Turkey, maybe).

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Improbable Botany

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Fair enough. Though examples of military coups against right-wing governments are as rare as hen's teeth (Turkey, maybe).

Portugal 1974
Peru 1968
Bolivia 1970
Turkey as you say

Off the top of my head. None have particularly been hymned in popular culture... Portugal's an interesting one because it got rid of the dictatorship.

There are maybe others - I add these for information, not because I'm implying that they're common. Just that they have happened.

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Doc Tor
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I'll give you Portugal and Peru. Bolivia? That's stretching it a little, given that they had 33rpm.

It's fine to reach different conclusions, but I'm more interested in how you arrive at yours, given the evidence that left-wing politicians regularly came/come under secret service surveillance and the one coup 'attempt' we do know about was directed against a Labour government.

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Improbable Botany

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'll give you Portugal and Peru. Bolivia? That's stretching it a little, given that they had 33rpm.

It's fine to reach different conclusions, but I'm more interested in how you arrive at yours, given the evidence that left-wing politicians regularly came/come under secret service surveillance and the one coup 'attempt' we do know about was directed against a Labour government.

I was thinking more of the counter-coup than the coup in 1970.

Because, in Britain, having done the job, I'm still confident that the next time would be exactly like the last time. A couple of hot heads being put back in their box by the saner ones. We don't have an army of badly trained conscripts who are ruled by fear and thus will go along with it. Our lot just wouldn't obey the orders.

The last time it was seriously considered, it still boiled down to a group of newspaper editors, industrialists, and passed over generals who folded like a pack of cards when it was pointed out to them that the army wouldn't be tagging along on their little adventure.


As it was, so it will be I reckon. That's not complacency, that's just personal experience.

See
Arrse for the last time this was discussed by our boys and girls. It's in the serious bit, but maybe NSFW.

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betjemaniac
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sample quote "...we British don't do coups...it's either full-blown civil war or a stern shake of the morning paper."

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stonespring
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As a proud social democrat I am ashamed to see so-called liberals in the US giddy at the prospect of nondemocratic means of removing President DT from power. Is he a threat to democracy, peace, and justice everywhere? Yes, I think so. He has started the country down the first steps towards illiberal democracy like we now see in Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela, the Philippines, and (to a lesser degree so far) Poland. But he is still a long way from becoming an Erdogan, Maduro, or Orban, thanks in large part to the US system of checks and balances that produced so much gridlock long before he came into office.

If DT did manage to break down those checks and balances and start to build an authoritarian regime, then I think massive nonviolent resistance, including civil disobedience by public servants and military officers, would be called for before any consideration of a coup (ie, a violent seizure of power). Only when DT, or any president, started waging war against his own people or initiating genocidal or apocalyptic war abroad would violent action against him be justified.

We're not there yet. I doubt we ever will be, but I am willing to consider any political possibility at the moment. Glorifying the possibility of a coup in the current situation is irresponsible and undermines the reputation of liberals as defenders of constitutional democracy. I don't think anyone here is guilty of doing that, but I have quite a few social media acquaintances who are. Our system can defeat Trump democratically and nonviolently, if people are willing to engage and organize IRL and not just like anti-Trump memes and buy "Nevertheless, She Persisted" gear.

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Nicolemr
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I'm more afraid that when, for whatever reason, Trump is supposed to leave office, he refuses to do so and declares martial law. [Roll Eyes]

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simontoad
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certainly the US left needs to be focused on the next round of elections. I don't mind street protests, as long as they are used to recruit and engage activists who will then go on to bring out the vote next year.

The one who persisted, by the way, is a fierce advocate for the rule of law.

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no prophet's flag is set so...

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Isn't trumpy a symptom and not the disease. The disease is the rot which was fully realized under your president Reagan. Let's empower corporations and overthrow governments of other countries in their interest. Let's enrich the rich and shit on our own people, but keep them happy by using the resources of the International Monetary Fund and trade agreements via the World Trade Organization to shit more heavily on the developing world. And let's force the developing countries to make us cheap consumer goods to keep our people from rising up.

Just read comsumer goods for religion and thank Karl Marx for your opiates.

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Pangolin Guerre
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Getting back to the original question and its context.... The 25th Amendment is the much more preferred road than a coup. And, pace to someone above, I don't know ANY American liberals who are "giddy" at the prospect of a coup. The 25th would, at the very least, present a fig leaf of process and constitutionality over lawlessness. An overt coup might remove the immediate problem, "the presentation of the disease" as a physician might say, but poison the well and so wound the the general concept of respect for institutions that it would perhaps be fatal to the Republic.

A likelier scenario, in my view, would be something analogous to the 8 June 1907 "coup from above" when PM Stolypin suspended the Russian Constitution of 1905. I could see Trump attempting that. I would expect a momentary paralysis on the part of the command structure: Do we obey the Commander-in-Chief, or do we obey our oath to the Constitution? I'm not military, but I suspect that the majority of the officer corps would respect the latter.

My final judgement is no coup, from above or below. As I've argued here and elsewhere, "For health reasons...."

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Enoch
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Isn't assassination traditionally the American way?

Of the 8 presidents who died in office, didn't exactly half, i.e. 4. not die by natural causes. Also, aren't there others who were shot but not 'successfully' and several additional examples of unsuccessful attempts that missed.

Rather than a coup, I would have thought Trump is much more at risk of being assassinated by some dissatisfied right wing person who feels let down that he hasn't drained the swamp and made America great again.

I suppose there might be a risk that an assassin would find it easier to get through because those responsible for guarding him felt tempted not to do so as assiduously as with other presidents.

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Golden Key
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Enoch--

No no no no no no no.

1. As several of us Americans said upthread, violence would make things much, much worse.

2. The Feds keep track of comments on such things. You can even get in trouble for a bumper sticker. Early in Dubya's first term, a man in my area had a homemade bumper sticker, telling Dubya where to go. He didn't offer to send him there, or suggest that anyone else should. But a women saw that sticker, got scared, and called the FBI. They showed up at his home, and went in for a discussion. When they finally came back out, one said that he didn't think the man was dangerous--he just didn't like the president very much. AFAIK, that was the end of it; but it could've been so much worse--and it was bad enough as it was.

And a comedienne recently got into a whole lot of trouble for performing with a bloodied model of T's decapitated head.

3. Please don't even suggest such a possibility. (I know you're not endorsing it.)

Again, no no no no no no no.

[Votive]

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemr:
I'm more afraid that when, for whatever reason, Trump is supposed to leave office, he refuses to do so and declares martial law. [Roll Eyes]

I dunno, Trump's standard response to a reversal is to moan about it on Twitter but not actually do anything.

I don't get the impression he's interested in seizing power he hasn't got, because a.) it would be too much hard work, b.) it would require co-conspirators that he trusted, c.) he isn't all that interested in exercising the powers he does have - hence Obama-era staffers staying on because he hasn't appointed replacements for them.

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Enoch
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Golden Key, I'm not suggesting the idea. I'm making the comment as an observer of history. Looking at the data, whether one likes it or not, assassination is more the American way than a military coup. I'm not saying the latter is impossible. I'm saying it's less likely than the former.

Most presidents cease to be president by completing their term in the normal way.

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Golden Key
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Enoch--

Thanks. I did say "I know you're not endorsing it". [Smile]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
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Moo

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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Rather than a coup, I would have thought Trump is much more at risk of being assassinated by some dissatisfied right wing person who feels let down that he hasn't drained the swamp and made America great again.

The only American politicians who have been shot at since Trump came to office were Republicans shot at by a Sanders supporter. Representative Steve Scalise was the most seriously injured. He was almost dead from blood loss when he reached the hospital. He spent five weeks in the hospital and then went into rehab.

Moo

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Brenda Clough
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That's what the Secret Service is for. And those people are well-trained.
The story is told of when Ronald Reagan toured the Secret Service training facility. He commented that, when he was in the movies, the cowboys always crouched down when gunfire was exchanged. The agent reminded Reagan gently that his guards would always return fire standing up. It was their goal to take the bullet intended for the President.
One can imagine Li'l Donny spurning or denigrating or ignoring nearly anything. But not his personal security, no.

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:

One can imagine Li'l Donny spurning or denigrating or ignoring nearly anything. But not his personal security, no.

Ahem

Maybe he really is that stupid.

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Lyda*Rose

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:

One can imagine Li'l Donny spurning or denigrating or ignoring nearly anything. But not his personal security, no.

Ahem

Maybe he really is that stupid.

Nah. He's never there. Now that Melania and Baron have moved out, it's only his older sons who work there that are affected. I guess their pop figures They can take their chances, .

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Mere Nick
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There won't be a coup unless something like the coming zombie apocalypse is not handled very well. Other than something like that, nope. Until then, we will maintain the pattern where one candidate will win an election and those that didn't support that candidate will bitch and moan like it's worse than a zombie apocalypse.

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Looking at the data, whether one likes it or not, assassination is more the American way than a military coup. I'm not saying the latter is impossible. I'm saying it's less likely than the former.

Most presidents cease to be president by completing their term in the normal way.

A list of presidents who did not complete their term in office, listed by reason of departure:

Fatal Illness:

Assassination:

Resignation:

Looking at the data, assassination seems to be running neck-and-neck with fatal illness as the most prevalent cause of early departure from the presidency. It should also be noted that while it is indeed true that "[m]ost presidents cease to be president by completing their term in the normal way", about 20% of presidential departures from office were for other reasons. So it's not typical, but not that unusual either.

Still, no literal coups on record (unless the conspiracy theories about Zach Taylor are actually true).

[ 04. August 2017, 16:44: Message edited by: Crœsos ]

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
Ahem

Maybe he really is that stupid.

Is he really entitled to charge the state of which he is President rent for providing him with his security? To me, that seems mercenary and outrageous.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
I was thinking more of the counter-coup than the coup in 1970.

You think the left is likely to be in the position to launch a counter-coup? You are starting to sound like those officers I've talked to.
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Doc Tor
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I don't think he's saying that at all. I was struggling to think of any leftist military coups outside of Turkey, and he kindly supplied the very few examples.

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Gramps49
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Our system of government has been proven time and time again to work and work well.

I remember working with some Kenyans during the time of the Gore-Bush election. They were amazed that the military did not take to the streets when the Republican leaning Supreme Court ruled in favor of Bush.

Now, the one situation I could see some rebellion in some quarters is if Trump is impeached and found guilty of collusion with the Russians. People have said they would take up arms but I believe they will quickly be put down

The one country that seems very ripe for a coup, though, is Venezuela. Her citizens are suffering through the worst economic crisis she has ever experienced. I do think the military will step in shortly.

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no prophet's flag is set so...

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# 15560

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America would like a coup in Venezuala. One that might bring its oil reserves under USA control.

[ 05. August 2017, 01:02: Message edited by: no prophet's flag is set so... ]

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mousethief

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quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
America would like a coup in Venezuala. One that might bring its oil reserves under USA control.

I wouldn't put it past us.

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Golden Key
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Crœsos--

quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Still, no literal coups on record (unless the conspiracy theories about Zach Taylor are actually true).

Or theories about any of the other presidential assassinations.

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Is he really entitled to charge the state of which he is President rent for providing him with his security? To me, that seems mercenary and outrageous.

With a normal protectee, the secret service will acquire a base of operations close to the protectee's home. Normal people don't have a couple of spare rooms they can loan to the secret service, but they often rent a neighbouring house or something.

Trump owns the tower block he lives in; the secret service would normally look to rent a nearby apartment. Guess who the owner is?

Note that Joe Biden was in a similar situation. He owns a cottage next to his home in Delaware, which he rented to the secret service.

[ 05. August 2017, 05:29: Message edited by: Leorning Cniht ]

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Enoch
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Even if more than one person has done it, taking rent off the state for facilitating your own security, rather than providing what you can provide to help them, still strikes me as grasping, mercenary and corrupt.

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Golden Key
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Enoch--

Well, during his campaign, there was money for housing some of his workers. So he put them in one of his hotels, was paid from the campaign funds, and thus made money from the whole thing.

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Even if more than one person has done it, taking rent off the state for facilitating your own security, rather than providing what you can provide to help them, still strikes me as grasping, mercenary and corrupt.

Perhaps. On the other hand, suppose President A owned a house next to his personal residence, which he rented out as an investment, and suppose President B owned a similar rental property in some different city.

In each case, the secret service will want to acquire a base of operations close to their protectee's home. Presidents A and B are identical in every respect except for the location of their rental property. You argue that because he owns a house next to his own, President A should provide it free of charge to the secret service. Do you also require President B to take the income from his rental property and use it to rent his neighbour's house for the secret service? Why not?

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
America would like a coup in Venezuala. One that might bring its oil reserves under USA control.

I wouldn't put it past us.
It was attempted back in 2002. At the time even the Economist - no lefty conspiracy rag - reported the attempted coup as driven behind the scenes by the US.
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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Even if more than one person has done it, taking rent off the state for facilitating your own security, rather than providing what you can provide to help them, still strikes me as grasping, mercenary and corrupt.

Or as another example, I own a car. Sometimes I use my car to travel on behalf of my employer. Am I a grasping mercenary because I claim expenses for doing so?
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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
America would like a coup in Venezuala. One that might bring its oil reserves under USA control.

I wouldn't put it past us.
It was attempted back in 2002. At the time even the Economist - no lefty conspiracy rag - reported the attempted coup as driven behind the scenes by the US.
Can you point to a specific article that supports this?

I've read several articles on the coup from the Economist's archives of April 2002, and I'd say none of them are even close to saying it was "driven behind the scenes by the US." There are criticisms that the US failed to condemn the coup, and "unconfirmed" allegations that it may have known about it beforehand and encouraged it.

In their 2009 review of a "superbly researched account" of the coup they say the author "exonerates the United States of direct involvement."

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Doc Tor
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The wiki entry is more ambiguous than "exonerates".

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Improbable Botany

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
Can you point to a specific article that supports this?

I no longer subscribe, and so can't view more than a limited amount of stuff on their website, which curtails my ability to do extensive searches.

quote:

I've read several articles on the coup from the Economist's archives of April 2002, and I'd say none of them are even close to saying it was "driven behind the scenes by the US." There are criticisms that the US failed to condemn the coup, and "unconfirmed" allegations that it may have known about it beforehand and encouraged it.

ISTR in one or two articles written at the time they alleged CIA/US involvement strongly enough that someone from the US government felt the need to write in a denial.

I generally place little value in their book reviews.

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
Can you point to a specific article that supports this?

I no longer subscribe, and so can't view more than a limited amount of stuff on their website, which curtails my ability to do extensive searches.

So the answer would be "no", then?
You did look, but didn't find anything like that in the limited material you saw?
quote:
quote:
I've read several articles on the coup from the Economist's archives of April 2002, and I'd say none of them are even close to saying it was "driven behind the scenes by the US." There are criticisms that the US failed to condemn the coup, and "unconfirmed" allegations that it may have known about it beforehand and encouraged it.

ISTR in one or two articles written at the time they alleged CIA/US involvement strongly enough that someone from the US government felt the need to write in a denial.

I'm pretty confident your recollection is incorrect. I don't see any sign of this in the articles I've read.
quote:
I generally place little value in their book reviews.

That's as may be, but it seems odd to me that a glowing review of a book that completely contradicts what you claim they alleged earlier made no mention of the reversal.
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The wiki entry is more ambiguous than "exonerates".

The fact that the wiki article is merely "ambiguous" on the question of US involvement suggests to me that any support was tenuous at most. Remember, this was a failed coup - its supporters wouldn't have had much opportunity to clean up evidence of a conspiracy, and Chavez would have had every reason to publicize it. I don't see any particular reason to be confident that it was "driven behind the scenes by the US."
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
So the answer would be "no", then?
You did look, but didn't find anything like that in the limited material you saw?

I can access two articles on the coup, neither of which related to the events I was referring to, events described in the following link - specifically the visit of a number of people to the White House in the months leading up to the coup:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/21/usa.venezuela

quote:
Remember, this was a failed coup - its supporters wouldn't have had much opportunity to clean up evidence of a conspiracy,
I don't see that that necessarily follows.

[ 05. August 2017, 19:09: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
So the answer would be "no", then?
You did look, but didn't find anything like that in the limited material you saw?

I can access two articles on the coup, neither of which related to the events I was referring to, events described in the following link - specifically the visit of a number of people to the White House in the months leading up to the coup:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/21/usa.venezuela

As I said, the Economist reported allegations that the US may have known about it beforehand - but even this article (shockingly, the Guardian suspects a US conspiracy!) hardly reaches to the level of "driven behind the scenes by the US."
quote:

quote:
Remember, this was a failed coup - its supporters wouldn't have had much opportunity to clean up evidence of a conspiracy,
I don't see that that necessarily follows.
Claims that the US was the driving force would be a lot stronger if they were based on more than a few visits to Washington. This deep involvement left no other traces for the Venezuelan government to find, even after the coup collapsed? No documents, no names of CIA agents extracted from captured plotters? This is quite consistent with the US not having provided any real support at all.
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Bishops Finger
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I hear that Ozymandias is going on holiday for about 3 weeks, and that during that time parts of the White House will be undergoing renovation and repairs. A chance to change the locks, perhaps?

[Two face]

IJ

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The future is another country - they might do things differently there...

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Amanda B. Reckondwythe

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Isn't there a Marine stationed at the door to open and close it for persons entering and exiting? Perhaps he can be persuaded to bar it instead, rifle drawn.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
This is quite consistent with the US not having provided any real support at all.

It was more likely a "memorandum of agreement" along the lines of "if you pull this off, we'll support your government."

Which is still just a little bit naughty, since Chavez was democratically elected and, as it turned out, had an awful lot more popular support than anticipated. There's kind of a thing where elected governments don't go around promising things to insurgents who want to overthrow other elected governments.

It wasn't like the US didn't have form for that, either.

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Improbable Botany

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
This deep involvement left no other traces for the Venezuelan government to find, even after the coup collapsed? No documents, no names of CIA agents extracted from captured plotters?

That entirely depends on who in any such organisation knew of such things, afaict neither Maduro or Chavez have been accused of using 'enhanced interrogation techniques' on their opponents, and the rich and powerful are largely left alone.
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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
This deep involvement left no other traces for the Venezuelan government to find, even after the coup collapsed? No documents, no names of CIA agents extracted from captured plotters?

That entirely depends on who in any such organisation knew of such things
Support that hardly anybody knows about doesn't sound like much use to me. What do you imagine "driven from behind the scenes by the US" means, anyway?
quote:
afaict neither Maduro or Chavez have been accused of using 'enhanced interrogation techniques' on their opponents, and the rich and powerful are largely left alone.

As far as you can tell? Well, maybe - I don't know how far you've looked, but there's this. Will that do?
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
Support that hardly anybody knows about doesn't sound like much use to me.

Knowing that a coup is likely to be accepted by the US after the fact (as it was - briefly) is very useful to the leaders of such a coup.

quote:

What do you imagine "driven from behind the scenes by the US" means, anyway?

This kind of thing:

"assert that the US administration was not only aware the coup was about to take place, but had sanctioned it, presuming it to be destined for success."

"The coup was discussed in some detail, right down to its timing and chances of success, which were deemed to be excellent."

[Incidentally, Ed Vulliamy was working for The Observer at the time].

quote:
As far as you can tell? Well, maybe - I don't know how far you've looked, but there's this. Will that do?
Within the time-frame of the coup? There was quite a lot of articles on his suppression of some parts of the press, and tangles with the judiciary, but again no mass round up - Carmona was placed under house arrest and then went into exile. Was there a concerted attempt to interrogate coup leaders that you are aware of?

[ 05. August 2017, 23:09: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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no prophet's flag is set so...

Proceed to see sea
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If there's a coup in the western hemisphere we the most reasonable assumption is the USA is involved.

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Maybe I should stop to consider that I'm not worthy of an epiphany and just take what life has to offer
(formerly was just "no prophet") \_(ツ)_/

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