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Source: (consider it) Thread: Catalonia Independence
no prophet's flag is set so...

Proceed to see sea
# 15560

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May I clarify something? A nation is a group of people with (usually) cultural values, language and heritage in common. Second, not all nations are countries, and nor can and should they be. Hence the French and English in Canada, and the host of First Nations (indigenous peoples). Which makes it quite a mess a lot of the time.

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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/

Posts: 11173 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
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# 368

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
You mean apart from withdrawing his permission to work in the country he just left and refusing him access to that country’s facilities such as health, education, power, water, rubbish collection, etc? You could even declare that without a visa arrangement he’s not allowed to cross the border (i.e. leave his house).

I'd have thought the simplest solution, as Martin suggests above, is to not let him do it.

You can't have people in a country who arbitrarily declare themselves to be outside the auspices of the law.

No Sir, let him do what he likes and ignore him until he actually breaks a real law. I like Marvin's fantasy suggestion. But no. If Catalonia started persecuting non-Catalonian Spanish citizens, that would justify intervention.

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Love wins

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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What's a "real law" though? I suspect "declaring your house to be in a different country" is in-and-of-itself breaking quite a few laws.

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arse

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Og, King of Bashan

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# 9562

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
What's a "real law" though? I suspect "declaring your house to be in a different country" is in-and-of-itself breaking quite a few laws.

I suspect many jurisdictions would take a "no harm, no foul" approach. As long as I am just telling anyone unfortunate enough to have to listen to me that I have seceded from the United States, I'd probably get away with it. It would only be when I attempted to use that as a defense for not paying property tax, or for not obeying certain property codes, that someone with any official capacity might object to my claim.

At least that's how it worked in Passport to Pimlico. (That was a documentary, right?)

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Ricardus
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# 8757

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I agree with Marvin. The main reason why we don't need to worry about individuals declaring themselves independent is that it's very unlikely an individual would gain any advantage by doing so.

But if we're going to insist that there has to be some kind of minimal threshold for statehood, and that a community has to have a recognisable cultural identity before it's allowed to be an independent state - then I'd have thought that if, say, Estonia or Slovakia pass that test, then Catalonia certainly qualifies too.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Ian Climacus

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
What's a "real law" though? I suspect "declaring your house to be in a different country" is in-and-of-itself breaking quite a few laws.

Tax in our breakaway state's case.

Fascinating discussion. Thanks for starting it mr cheesy. Plenty to ponder here. I tend to be of the view let people seek independence, but when they hold the wealth it does become trickier. Western Australia continually cries secede, and they were once the powerhouse. Now the minerals are not exported to the same extent, and they are in need. What would have happened if they did go?

[ 02. October 2017, 20:28: Message edited by: Ian Climacus ]

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Marvin the Martian

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# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I'm not saying that Independence is bad. I'm just saying it isn't always a moral good. One example being that an individual cannot simply declare that he is now living in his own country.

Any other examples? Perhaps ones more pertinent to independence campaigns that would actually happen in real life?

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
But if we're going to insist that there has to be some kind of minimal threshold for statehood, and that a community has to have a recognisable cultural identity before it's allowed to be an independent state - then I'd have thought that if, say, Estonia or Slovakia pass that test, then Catalonia certainly qualifies too.

Hell, if Andorra, Lichtenstein and San Marino can be independent countries then I don't see why any larger area can't.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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no prophet's flag is set so...

Proceed to see sea
# 15560

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Twice almost 50% of Québec almost asserted this choice to leave Canada. I think, and hope, that we've moved beyond this. While not fully realizing that Québec has in many ways led Canada forward re accommodating to one another. In my view, the problems with independence votes is that they are a recognition that someone has failed to listen to someone else. Much like which occurs in failing marriages. Evidently Spain and Catalonia haven't been talking properly.
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Enoch
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I don't know which side my sympathies are with on this particular issue. But, if the argument why Catalonia should remain part of Spain is because it is the cash cow that generates the money needed to fund the rest of the country, then if you are Catalan, then unless there some other ties that link them to the rest of Spain, that's a very good reason to break away. It is also neither a persuasive nor an honourable reason why the Madrid government should insist that they stay.

Of the various arguments, it's the one that if the constitution says Spain is indissoluble, then one bit of it shouldn't be entitled unilaterally to break away without the engagement of the rest in the decision in some way, which is the one that is most objectively persuasive.

Incidentally Marvin, can I remind you that East Timor wasn't historically part of Indonesia. It was previously a quite separate Portuguese territory which the Indonesian government grabbed when distance and political change in Portugal meant the Portuguese could no longer protect the inhabitants from being invaded.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Augustine the Aleut
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# 1472

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quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
May I clarify something? A nation is a group of people with (usually) cultural values, language and heritage in common. Second, not all nations are countries, and nor can and should they be. Hence the French and English in Canada, and the host of First Nations (indigenous peoples). Which makes it quite a mess a lot of the time.

Not all nations are countries, and not all countries are nations. The notion of a nation-state is rather more recent than we generally believe and some observers are not certain that it has been a good thing for humanity. A Québec history prof of my acquaintance believes that one of the reasons his compatriots did not opt for independence was that they could not see how they could do it fairly.

Apparently, Catalans are split fairly evenly on independence but I should be surprised if they were split over the suppression of the referendum. It seems that President of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont wants to use the latter majority as if it were the former. Like many other nationalists, President Rajoy has never enjoyed the idea of the plurality of identities with the 1978 constitution envisaged, and has been foolish enough to try to make his vision prevail.

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Pangolin Guerre
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# 18686

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Pangolin Guerre:
I think that Catalan independence is a bad idea.

OK, but why?

quote:
Were Catalonia to go, how long before the Basque lands (also net contributors to the national fisc)? And then Galicia (which makes much of its unique, celtically-rooted culture, and has its own language), then Aragon, Andalucia, Asturias?
The problem being? Why not have six or seven independent nations rather than one, if that what the people of those areas want?


I am describing the Nationalist mindset (NOT mine, since you couldn't suss that out) in the second citation.. The second scenario is the the reason why the Rajoy government is so very much against Catalan independence, or (as Canadians will recognise) sovereignty association, or loose federalism. The Nationalist view is of a strongly unitary Spanish state - not merely centralist, but culturally, linguistically homogeneous. The which is manifestly not the case on the ground.

Now, the first question. I think that economically Catalonia is better off within Spain, until the EU realises that the "small states", all of which want to be in the EU, that nothing will change. Scotland, Catalonia, recognise that their viability lies within the EU. The EU should not encourage dissolution of members, but should make clear that new entities emerging from them would not be excluded, as successor states; In which case, as long as Catalonia agreed to the pre-existing agreements, admission to the EU would be a formality.

[ 03. October 2017, 00:00: Message edited by: Pangolin Guerre ]

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Pangolin Guerre:


Now, the first question. I think that economically Catalonia is better off within Spain, until the EU realises that the "small states", all of which want to be in the EU, that nothing will change. Scotland, Catalonia, recognise that their viability lies within the EU.

I am not an economist - but I can't work out how this can possibly be true. If Catalonia becomes independent then taxes it will raise will be spent there are not in the rSpain and therefore it will presumably be better off and the rSpain will be worse off.

quote:
The EU should not encourage dissolution of members, but should make clear that new entities emerging from them would not be excluded, as successor states; In which case, as long as Catalonia agreed to the pre-existing agreements, admission to the EU would be a formality.
Yes but politically the power in the EU lies with the existing member states, so widening the membership to include successor states from regions which have gone independent requires the consent of all the existing members.

If Spain could be shown that they're somehow better off with accepting Catalonia as a new EU state - presumably by being offered more EU grants and sweeteners - maybe they'd compromise, but I can't see that overall the whole EU project is stronger economically or politically. As seen with the legal conflict between Greece and Macedonia, there is a lot of time wasted when a state gets the hump with a neighbour, and that's not even a situation where the one ceded from the other.

Of course, it looks different from the perspective of Catalonia - where they might well think that they've a right to a bright future within the EU and without the dead-weight of Madrid.

But I don't think that's a given. Even if they somehow miraculously get independence without too much bloodshed, it is going to be an uphill battle to get EU membership without the consent of Spain. It seems to me that the most likely outcome is some kind of in-it-but-not-of-it fudge where they might be allowed to be in the Single Market but are not full members.

It'd be quite interesting to know the level of EU structural funds spent in Catalonia and how well they'd get on without them.

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:

Apparently, Catalans are split fairly evenly on independence

That's the information being reported here as well, the impression I've had is that prior to the banning of the referendum the split was approximately 30% pro-indy, 30% resolutely anti-indy and the remainder undecided. The suppression of the referendum was a big boost for the pro-indy share of the vote: it pushed many undecided in favour, and once there were police on the street interfering with voting then those who were most determined to vote were much more likely to be pro-indy.

Basically, the Spanish government cocked-up big time (they must be giving our own Tory government a run for the incompetence prize). A simple "it's a meaningless opinion poll, we won't recognise the result" would have a) likely resulted in at best a very small majority in favour of independence, and b) if there was a majority then the government could flex muscles (including the Constitution making secession illegal) to stop it happening. As it is they're faced with an apparent large majority of Catalans in favour of independence, which isn't as easy to dismiss, and an almost universal condemnation of suppression of the vote.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:

Basically, the Spanish government cocked-up big time (they must be giving our own Tory government a run for the incompetence prize). A simple "it's a meaningless opinion poll, we won't recognise the result" would have a) likely resulted in at best a very small majority in favour of independence, and b) if there was a majority then the government could flex muscles (including the Constitution making secession illegal) to stop it happening. As it is they're faced with an apparent large majority of Catalans in favour of independence, which isn't as easy to dismiss, and an almost universal condemnation of suppression of the vote.

Can someone clarify this point: I thought I read that the referendum had been banned by the courts in Madrid and the regional one in Catalonia.

If that's the case, then this isn't just about a political failure of the current Madrid PM (although it clearly is that as well).

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arse

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Marvin the Martian

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# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Pangolin Guerre:
Now, the first question. I think that economically Catalonia is better off within Spain,

As they are net contributors to the Spanish economy (the Spanish "cash cow", as Enoch put it) I would suggest otherwise.

quote:
until the EU realises that the "small states", all of which want to be in the EU, that nothing will change. Scotland, Catalonia, recognise that their viability lies within the EU.
I'm not quite sure I can successfully parse what you're saying here. Could you clarify?

quote:
The EU should not encourage dissolution of members,
I don't see why the EU should take a position one way or the other on this issue.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
The EU should not encourage dissolution of members,
I don't see why the EU should take a position one way or the other on this issue.
For most EU structures and programmes it would make very little difference, and so the EU wouldn't have a position. There would need to be a one-off adjustment (eg: divide the Spanish contributions to the EU budget between the two new states, and similarly divide EU expenditure between them), but not much effort.

The areas where there could be issues are:

1. The Council, which would gain a new member. That's not a problem with one or two nations gaining independence ... but if it becomes very common and the Council expands to accomodate dozens of new members then there will need to be adjustments in the way it works (eg: should there be any situation in which a single nation can veto anything?).

2. Programmes which require participants from at least two countries (most R&D funding, for example). Currently that means Spanish institutions need to work with institutions in one of the other 27 EU countries, but would Spanish-Catalan cooperations qualify for EU funding? Or, do the rules need to be changed to prevent funding of projects that are exclusively cooperations within what had been the same country?

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
..but not much effort.


Now where have I heard someone else saying that making an adjustment to the EU wouldn't require much effort? Oh yes, Brexit.

The fact is that it'd only be "not much effort" if all of the current members co-operate to help a new member. Given that one of the current members has no political mandate or interest in helping the new member, then the chances of that being easy are miniscule.

I have to say, it is amazing how everyone seems to view this whole topic through the lenses of their own aspirations for independence.

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

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OK, technically not much effort - some tinkering with numbers in the ledgers.

Politically I'll accept that if Catalonia becomes independent then the rest of Spain will lose tax revenue and will (naturally) be inclined to want a greater share of EU money (and, lesser share of EU costs) to compensate as part of the deal that will need to be struck to admit Catalonia to the EU. On the other hand, the rest of Spain will know Catalonia is an important market for their goods and services, and hopefully won't be stupid enough to try and block EU membership as that will hurt them as well as Catalonia.

Though, given the incompetance of the UK government (or, less generously their determination to inflict maximum harm on the UK) experience says that politics can result in very strange behaviour.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Now where have I heard someone else saying that making an adjustment to the EU wouldn't require much effort? Oh yes, Brexit.

Not really the same thing. Another country saying "we want in to the same arrangements as all these countries" is straightforward, at least in principle. One saying "we want a specially-crafted trade deal because we don't like your normal terms" is more complicated.
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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Not really the same thing. Another country saying "we want in to the same arrangements as all these countries" is straightforward, at least in principle. One saying "we want a specially-crafted trade deal because we don't like your normal terms" is more complicated.

I'm not sure it is possible to tell, from an armchair, which is more difficult. I agree it isn't the same, but both would be entirely new and unexpected decisions for the EU to face.

I suspect the Brexiteers might think that the UK-EU deal was rather more simple than admitting a Spanish region as a new EU state on the basis that the EU-UK trade is greater than the likely contributions to the EU budget from Catalonia - and the almost inevitable intransigence from Spain.

I suspect that Scottish Nationalists and Welsh Nationalists are looking to Catalonia because it is a proxy for their own battles at home, even though the situations are not really comparable.

It'd be comforting to believe that Catalonia could simply switch overnight to being an EU state, but I suspect the chances of anything close to that are minimal and only really exist in the minds of the SNP.

[ 03. October 2017, 12:59: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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Pangolin Guerre
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# 18686

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Pangolin Guerre:
Now, the first question. I think that economically Catalonia is better off within Spain,

As they are net contributors to the Spanish economy (the Spanish "cash cow", as Enoch put it) I would suggest otherwise.

quote:
until the EU realises that the "small states", all of which want to be in the EU, that nothing will change. Scotland, Catalonia, recognise that their viability lies within the EU.
I'm not quite sure I can successfully parse what you're saying here. Could you clarify?

quote:
The EU should not encourage dissolution of members,
I don't see why the EU should take a position one way or the other on this issue

Going in order:

1) The economic health of a region is not simply a +/- as to whether it receives from or pays to the centre, although it is conceptually simple issue for public consumption. For instance, one important factor is the integration of that region into the whole. To what degree would Catalonia's connections to external markets (within Spain and without) be disrupted? Would a potential reduction in the value of exports be greater than the net payout to Madrid? (Even that example is more complicated than what I'm describing.) Until a clear economic plan is in place, Catalonia is better off biding its time.

2) I'm referring to the EU's distaste for the acceptance of regions of member states as separate entities. It's not a question of the economics so much as an effort not to offend the sensibilities of member states dealing with their internal regional issues. The structural adjustments involved in accepting an independent Catalonia and a reduced Spain would be "fixing" (and, for Spain, psychological), not conceptual. For new, small states, given the size of populations and economies, their respective viability is pretty much contingent on immediate acceptance into the EU: ready-made markets, various subsidies, etc.

3) The EU has taken a position on this, that it supports the current integrity of member states. Also, Valcarcel has taken the rather strident position that the referendum was an attempted coup.

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wabale
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# 18715

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“I have the most evil memories of Spain, but I have very few bad memories of Spaniards.” ― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia.

I’m not sure what I think about Catalonian independence, but I do think the world needs to think hard about what ‘nationality’ does to people. For example, we kill an awful lot of people in its name, as we remind ourselves in November.

Many historians, especially Marxist ones, have put the concept of nations and nationality under the microscope. In 1700 most French people didn’t speak French (20% of the population still didn’t in 1863) and most Italians didn’t speak Italian. When you consider that Western European nations provided the modern model for the state, you realise nations are fragile creations for all their apparently awesome power. They are particularly fragile in Africa, precisely because of their artificiality. Or do ideas like this make a complicated world even more complicated?

The default position of most governments in the world is therefore to support existing states, even when they misbehave. Could we do better? More federalism, and more provincialism, perhaps?

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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HM King Felipe VI is due to address the nation tonight, though I'm not sure at what hour.

Doubtless he will appeal for calm.

Meanwhile, what does the other part of Catalonia, over the (comparatively recent - 1659) border with France, think about the bid for independence?

My sister lives not far from Perpignan (Perpinya in Catalan):

https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpiny%C3%A0

...which page is, as you will see, in Catalan, that part of France being mildly bi-lingual (or even tri-lingual, with Occitan being spoken further along the coast).

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Martin60
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# 368

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What an absolute disaster.

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Love wins

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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It seems that the King Does Not Approve (but no surprise there, surely...):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41493014

As Martin says...

[Disappointed]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Cod
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# 2643

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I think the Spanish government is in a bit of a bind. There was a purported referendum in 2014, which the Spanish constitutional court declared unlawful on the basis that it contravened the constitution. In short, the highest court in Spain has declared that there cannot be a referendum on Catalan independence.

The Spanish government duly paid no attention to that referendum.

Now the Catalan government has come back and done it again.

I wonder if this deplorable behaviour by the Spanish authorities comes from concern that if they didn't at least try to prevent the referendum the Catalans would pull another stunt, such as declaring UDI, which the BBC is now reporting that the Catalan government intends to do.

As I understand it, granting the Catalans the legal power to hold a binding referendum (as opposed to a glorified and highly expensive opinion poll) is not in the power of the Catalan government or in the gift of the Spanish government or parliament. First, the Spanish constitution would have to be amended to allow it, and that would require a referendum in which the whole of Spain would get a vote.

What I'd like to know is whether the Catalan authorities have even formally asked for this to happen, or whether they have simply tubthumped and insisted that their political right to independence shouldn't be impeded by pesky things like laws - which incidentally ought to protect people from things like rubber bullets and police truncheons.

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Bishops Finger
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If President Puigdemont and his government do declare UDI in the next few days, just how can the Madrid government react?

By sending in troops? God forbid...

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Martin60
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This is an unstoppable revolution now the king has revealed himself to be king of non-Catalan Spain only. A small, disappointing king. What a shame.

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Love wins

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Baptist Trainfan
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
If President Puigdemont and his government do declare UDI in the next few days, just how can the Madrid government react?

By sending in troops? God forbid...

Indeed, It would be like Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, or the Spanish Civil War. Could it really come to that? The mind recoils at such horror.

[ 03. October 2017, 22:24: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

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Martin60
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It will get nasty but nothing like any of them.

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Love wins

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Martin60
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Northern Ireland. With 80% Catholics.

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Love wins

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Sober Preacher's Kid

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A bit of a 'There but for the Grace of God go I' when I saw these stories. Though the Government of Canada's strategy was the exact opposite of what Madrid has done.

Chantal Hébert published a book about what happened behind the scenes in the 1995 Québec Referendum. In short:

a) At 50%+1, Jacques Parizeau, Premier of Québec, was going to declare independence.
b) The Prime Minister of Canada, Mr. Chrétien, would very likely have been replaced and the Québec MP's ejected from the House of Commons. And the PM had no plan for a 'Yes' vote.

In short, we were all going to hell in a handbasket. And every side was lying through their teeth about their true intentions.

But what really came through, and I believe this to be true with Catalonia as well, is that countries don't die when they split up politically. They die when their citizens stop believing in them. Canada had a near-death experience, but when push came to shove, enough people never stopped believing in Canada. And a generation on, Québec is more a part of Canadian politics and culture than anyone dared hope at the time.

Sadly, Mr. Rajoy seems to have missed this very point, and causes a majority of Catalonians to stop believing in Spain.

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NDP Federal Convention, Edmonton 2016: More Trots than the Calgary Stampede!

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Cod
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quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
If President Puigdemont and his government do declare UDI in the next few days, just how can the Madrid government react?

By sending in troops? God forbid...

Indeed, It would be like Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, or the Spanish Civil War. Could it really come to that? The mind recoils at such horror.
It sounds awful, but there is an important difference: it isn't clear that the majority of Catalans actually want independence. Whether that's so will only become clear over the next little while.

Anti-independence Catalans largely boycotted the two previous referenda, the second of which was actually an incitement to millions to take part in a mass contempt of court, which while not justifying the reaction from Madrid was provocative. Opinion polls have generally shown a majority against seceding from Spain.

So if the Catalan authorities are going to do something so unbelievably stupid and inflammatory as UDI there may well be millions of Catalans who may welcome the troops.

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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It sounds awful, but there is an important difference: it isn't clear that the majority of Catalans actually want independence. Whether that's so will only become clear over the next little while.

Anti-independence Catalans largely boycotted the two previous referenda, the second of which was actually an incitement to millions to take part in a mass contempt of court, which while not justifying the reaction from Madrid was provocative. Opinion polls have generally shown a majority against seceding from Spain.

So if the Catalan authorities are going to do something so unbelievably stupid and inflammatory as UDI there may well be millions of Catalans who may welcome the troops.

This is a very good point - as I understand it only around 50% of the Catalans want independence and it is likely that "no" voters would not have participated in the referendum given everything we know about that chaos.

On the other hand, there is nothing like government clamp-downs to clear the mind. I suspect there are now more in favour of independence than there were before.

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arse

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Baptist Trainfan
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Yes, I'd agree with both of you.
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mr cheesy
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The problem is that it is hard to see a sensible way out of this; if Catalonia declares Independence, it is almost certain that Spain will not accept it - and if Spain doesn't then the EU can't/won't.

The best scenario then is that Spain lets them dangle with pseudo-Independence whilst continuing to extract tax from them at a national level. Undermining that would take a monumental effort from the Catalonian government, and is probably not possible without support from other countries.

I don't even want to think about what a worse-case scenario would look like.

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arse

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:


So if the Catalan authorities are going to do something so unbelievably stupid and inflammatory as UDI there may well be millions of Catalans who may welcome the troops.

which, from a military point of view, is even worse. It's arguably safer if you send troops somewhere where *nobody* wants them - when a large number of people are welcoming them and seeing them as defenders and a large number see them as the forces of oppression and resist them is the bit where brother turns on brother....

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Canada had a near-death experience,

Canada wouldn't have died, it would just have got a bit smaller and gained a new neighbour.

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
If President Puigdemont and his government do declare UDI in the next few days, just how can the Madrid government react?

By sending in troops? God forbid...

Indeed, It would be like Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, or the Spanish Civil War. Could it really come to that? The mind recoils at such horror.
It sounds awful, but there is an important difference: it isn't clear that the majority of Catalans actually want independence. Whether that's so will only become clear over the next little while.

Anti-independence Catalans largely boycotted the two previous referenda, the second of which was actually an incitement to millions to take part in a mass contempt of court, which while not justifying the reaction from Madrid was provocative. Opinion polls have generally shown a majority against seceding from Spain.

So if the Catalan authorities are going to do something so unbelievably stupid and inflammatory as UDI there may well be millions of Catalans who may welcome the troops.

No they won't.

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Love wins

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Bishops Finger
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I suppose it's too much to expect Spain to accept the split, acknowledge Catalonia as a separate, independent, sovereign state (presumably allowing the EU to do likewise), and then to sit down with President Puigdemont to work out a sensible working arrangement.

Given that not all Catalans want independence, might it be possible for them to retain Spanish citizenship, along with their new Catalan citizenship?

I guess it simply isn't likely to be that simple... [Help]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Pangolin Guerre
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Canada had a near-death experience,

Canada wouldn't have died, it would just have got a bit smaller and gained a new neighbour.
You haven't a clue about which you opine.
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quetzalcoatl
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Reuters are reporting that independence will be declared on Monday. Separate reports that Madrid are moving troops into the region.

Not much room for negotiation? The violence by the police was stupid, and the king's speech seems to have gone down like a lead balloon, partly because he didn't condemn the violence.

It's always difficult in these situations to distinguish plain idiocy, and deliberate policy - is Madrid deliberately being provocative?

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

It's always difficult in these situations to distinguish plain idiocy, and deliberate policy - is Madrid deliberately being provocative?

Do you mean to ask whether Madrid is deliberately trying to get a response? Why would they want that?

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arse

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

It's always difficult in these situations to distinguish plain idiocy, and deliberate policy - is Madrid deliberately being provocative?

Do you mean to ask whether Madrid is deliberately trying to get a response? Why would they want that?
In order to crush it.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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mr cheesy
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Holy crap. Surely not.

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arse

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Martin60
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No. But they will any way. Don't look for a rationale. Scratch a 40 year democracy and the fascism is there.

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Love wins

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quetzalcoatl
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Well, I think idiocy is the likeliest factor.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
No. But they will any way. Don't look for a rationale. Scratch a 40 year democracy and the fascism is there.

Thing is Martin, thanks to the Pact of Forgetfulness (so called) post Franco, scratch Spain full stop and both sides of the Civil War are still there, let alone just the Fascists.

There's a lot of festering resentment which a South African style Truth and Reconciliation Commission *could* have released.

As it was, and possibly (certainly my reading of the situation though it's a long time since I studied it as an undergrad) rightly at the time, Spain ensured a transition to democracy by just agreeing that no one was to talk about it.

Hence the (slightly) odd fact that a great deal of 20th Spanish history has been written by the British, and is then translated for the Spanish market. Raymond Carr and Paul Preston in particular are probably more well known in Spanish academia than British...

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And is it true? For if it is....

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betjemaniac
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Seriously, when looking at transitional periods (roughly):

Germany (as a whole) - atone for it
Austria - proceed on the basis that someone else did it to you and you're one of the victims
Italy - argue about it
Yugoslavia - fight about it
Czechoslovakia - divorce reasonably amicably
Russia and former E Germany - romanticise it (increasingly)
South Africa - lay it all out on the table legalistically
UK (post end of empire) - assume there's nothing to talk about
Spain - don't talk about it and hope it goes away

the reader may draw their own conclusions as to which approach is most successful, though it is possible that not every option could work in every country I suppose in fairness.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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