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Source: (consider it) Thread: Bloody Brexiteers
Rocinante
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# 18541

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Looks like the Brexit manifesto has failed to survive its first contact with the real world:

May casts doubt on points-based system for immigration

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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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The real world isn't where the manifesto was pulled from, so...

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
Are there UK ... politicians you respect?

I've tried my best. But, nope. I can't think of any.
It's dishonest of you to suggest that's even an approximation of what I posted.

Can I assume from this evasion that you're unable to describe any benefits of joining the Euro?

More a bit fed up with arguing for the benefits of EU membership, apparently to either those who are not willing to hear or those who are already convinced. If the question was asked in Purgatory I wouldn't have given such a flippant answer - or, at least made the joke and then answered the question.

Both the Eurozone and Schengen are natural consequences of the Common Market. So, both build on the benefits of the Common Market. In particular, the Euro provides:
  • Transparency of price - everyone in the Eurozone can see the prices of goods and services everywhere in the Eurozone without needing to calculate the exchange rate. This simplifies shopping around for the best price for goods and services, reducing costs to businesses buying components and materials and to consumers.
  • Reduced transaction costs and uncertainties - when buying goods and services within the Eurozone there are no charges related to exchanging between currencies, and no uncertainty about what the price will do as a result of currency fluctuation.
Of course, those benefits are relatively small to the UK when the UK economy is doing well, the costs to industry of being outside the Eurozone are small, and with a solid economy and stable politics the exchange rates don't vary much and hence don't introduce much uncertainty. Which is no longer the case, with substantial politically induced instability and uncertainty.

Schengen is more obviously beneficial. Free movement of labour is vital to modern economies, where there are areas of high demand for labour and areas where there is currently insufficient work. Most industries and businesses have some highly specialised skill requirements, and to maintain competitiveness need access to those skills - which will rarely be available locally. The EU already benefits the UK economy by providing a substantial labour market with limited restrictions on the movement of citizens between countries. Schengen removes the last of those barriers. Practically it will make little difference given that to travel to the rest of the EU we would still need to book tickets on a boat, plane or train and sit through the queues that that entails - and, the only land border is already open in the same manner as the internal borders in Schengen allowing one to simply drive across without even slowing down.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Eutychus
From the edge
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Some interesting realpolitik from Japan.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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rolyn
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Thought one of farage's main beefs was the EU bloc on goods. Can't see what Japan is worried about.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Japanese businesses have invested heavily in the UK as a point of entry to the EU market. They wanted to have their manufacturing centres within the EU to allow them to source components from the EU and sell finished products to the EU without paying tariffs importing components or exporting finished goods (within the EU). They also were taking advantage in the Common Market allowing free movement of labour, so that they could recruit the best people from anywhere within the EU without the additional cost and paperwork associated with complying with work permits and visas.

Therefore, any changes in the relationship between the UK and the rest of the EU, in particular the introduction of tariffs on imports and exports and restrictions on the movement of labour, will have an impact on their costs, competitiveness and profits. Which is why Japanese businesses with significant investments in the UK are worried, as those with investments elsewhere in the EU who sell to or buy from the UK or employ UK workers. Of course, the same is true of all the other non-UK firms who have invested in the UK, and UK businesses who have also come to rely on free trade and movement of labour. What is very significant is that these Japanese businesses have got the Japanese government to make such a detailed and public statement.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
...you think that national membership of the EU is a civil rights issue or comparable to a civil rights issue? Interesting.

You think the Irish Troubles were about civil rights? Interesting.

I think I was replying to A POST THAT SUGGESTED EXACTLY THAT. Good grief, man, why put that on me when the post I'm replying to is sitting right there?

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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orfeo

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# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:

I remain fairly neutral on the outcome of the vote. What I'm not neutral on is my growing contempt for the people, mostly leaning on the left side of politics like myself, who have shown themselves to be utterly incapable of losing a vote with good grace.

This is ridiculous. Passively accepting a result is not how any civil right was ever gained.

Oh look, more civil rights talk.

I'm genuinely bemused at how anyone can think that civil rights has anything to do with this. Membership of the EU is not on an individual basis.

It's not possible to declare that those who want membership get to be members and those who don't want membership get to leave. Either way part of the population is not going to get what they want, so the question is merely are you going to upset more than half the voters or less than half the voters by going against their wishes.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
I'm genuinely bemused at how anyone can think that civil rights has anything to do with this. Membership of the EU is not on an individual basis.

Of course membership of the EU is not a matter of civil rights.

Being prevented from peacefully expressing opinions on Brexit, or restrictions on what opinions may be expressed, is a matter of civil rights. Someone telling me I can't continue to say the UK should remain in the EU is infringing my civil (and human) rights. If someone comes along and demands I remove the Remain poster which has been in my window since June, then they are infringing my rights. Same if they said I couldn't join a peaceful demonstration on the streets of London or Edinburgh.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Oh look, more civil rights talk.

No, it isn't. That was meant to be a clear and simple example of how an issue doesn't end at the ballot box.
We live in
[qoute]Either way part of the population is not going to get what they want, so the question is merely are you going to upset more than half the voters or less than half the voters by going against their wishes. [/QUOTE]We live in representative democracies.* Those who represent us are supposed to look out for our interests. Given the blatant misrepresentation and the instant buyers remorse of the instigators of Brexit, the elecorate should be furious. Even those who "won".


*As opposed to direct democracy, representative democracies are supposed to prevent the electorate from voting to harm itself or portions of iteslf.

[ 05. September 2016, 15:21: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]

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Hallellou, hallellou

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Stetson
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# 9597

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Cresswell wrote:

quote:
Someone telling me I can't continue to say the UK should remain in the EU is infringing my civil (and human) rights. If someone comes along and demands I remove the Remain poster which has been in my window since June, then they are infringing my rights. Same if they said I couldn't join a peaceful demonstration on the streets of London or Edinburgh.

Is this really a major issue though? Are large numbers of people advocating that those who continue to campaign for Remain should be suppressed with the force of law?

Personally, when I make statements like "Your side lost, so you need to face reality and shut the fuck up", I don't mean that the person has no right to continue whining about whatever. He DOES have that right, it's just that a lot of people, including me, are gonna find his behaviour annoying, and the government is under no obligation to listen to him.

So, I would perhaps amend your example above to read "Remove that Remain sign from your window, unless you want everyone to think you're a complete and utter jerkwad". You do have the latter option.

[ 05. September 2016, 17:41: Message edited by: Stetson ]

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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No, you're a jerkwad.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Personally, when I make statements like "Your side lost, so you need to face reality and shut the fuck up", I don't mean that the person has no right to continue whining about whatever. He DOES have that right, it's just that a lot of people, including me, are gonna find his behaviour annoying, and the government is under no obligation to listen to him.

That sounds like you are of the opinion that the democratic process ends once people have exited the polling station.

Well, I'm sorry to break it to you, but an election is but one moment of the democratic process. The vote in June wasn't the end of the process - especially when the government still hasn't formulated what they're seeking from the rest of the world on our behalf as we leave the EU. I think the vote was seriously flawed, but nevertheless it's what we had. But, now we've got over the razamataz of the electioneering there is serious work to get on with. I'm not going to let the Tories make all the decisions on my behalf without letting my voice be heard.

So, for the record here's what I consider to be the least worst option for the UK:

1. Seek to maintain the existing free-trade status with the EU. Seek to maintain existing EU-negotiated trade deals with other nations. Though negotiating trade deals with practically the whole world in 2 years is going to be a major pain, we might get lucky and find most nations are happy to draw up a treaty with us that's exactly the same as the current one except for the 'EU' replaced by 'UK'.

2. Seek to maintain access to the EU labour market, so that UK citizens can freely work anywhere in the EU, and EU citizens can freely work anywhere in the UK. That includes freedom to live in the UK for spouses and dependents (if the law says "you can work here, but your spouse and children can't live here with you" then that's not free movement of labour).

3. Continue to implement all EU legislations relating to products and services (I doubt this will need legislation - anyone producing products for export, to the EU or elsewhere, will make sure all their goods and services are marked up as compliant with all the EU legislation anyway, otherwise they'll never sell them).

4. Maintain the Common Market (this includes all of the above) but in escence means that all EU citizens can buy their goods and services from anyone they want to in the EU. So, it would also need to ensure that any state subsidies to industry (eg: payments to farmers, or replacements to regional development payments) do not excessively affect the European market.

5. Maintain all payments to the EU so that UK scientists can continue to fully participate in EU funded programmes. Also, make sure that the status of organisations like the European Medicines Agency continue to function effectively (preferably remaining in London).

That wish list may look an awful like "not leave the EU at all". Which it is. All we lose through Brexit is then just our voice in the European Parliament, Commission and Councils.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Stetson
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# 9597

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Cresswell:

That sounds like a legitimate wish list. My main point was simply that someone saying "Take that stupid Remain sign out of your window", isn't neccessarily trying to violate your rights.

I will say that your list of options is probably not something I would try to symbolize by displaying a sign from the LOSING side of an already-held referendum, since that comes off like denying political reality. I suspect the other European governments know very well which way the referendum went, and are proceeding from the premise that the Leave vote was a valid expression of public opinion. Obviously, the proposed new arrangements will all involve varying degrees of association between the UK and the EU, and it's going to be the agenda of the erstwhile Remain campaigners to keep those connections as close as possible. But even you seem to admit that a full return to the pre-vote status quo is not an option...

quote:
All we lose through Brexit is then just our voice in the European Parliament, Commission and Councils.



[ 05. September 2016, 19:47: Message edited by: Stetson ]

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Posted by Stetson:
quote:

I suspect the other European governments know very well which way the referendum went, and are proceeding from the premise that the Leave vote was a valid expression of public opinion. Obviously, the proposed new arrangements will all involve varying degrees of association between the UK and the EU

There's a kind of an 'elephant in the room' thing going on with the UK at the moment. Now I know it has its own concerns in regards to Brexit, but it still seems to persist in Pre-referendum spin which will make things intensely difficult later for Britain and won't do them any favours. Europe has no desire for another Greece on its doorstep, whether that be in Europe or out of it. It isn't in their interest to punish Britain or make things any more difficult than they have to or enact certain things to make the economy crash. Britain's economy crashing would likely still have a significant effect on the world economic stage. Nobody wants that. However there is still a narrative of a desire for punishment, that Europe should be seen as the tough negotiator, that things will be made difficult for Britain economically. This narrative is only coming out of Britain. Europe meanwhile is standing aghast at a Britain that is already making sounds that it wants all of the benefits of being in the EU without being in the EU. There's a kind of collective disbelief throughout Europe that a country could be so blatantly stupid and selfish. Today it isn't only Europe left standing with its mouth open in disbelief, and this is the elephant in the room. The world is about to wake up to what is about to come - that a world leading economy and society looks like it is beginning to take of isolationist policy. I'm not saying this is what Britain is doing, but this is how it looks to everyone outside of it; everybody, except Britain. I think for other countries looking in they aren't only seeing the Brexit. They also see the talk of scrapping the human rights act and they also see a country that may in the future split apart and they also see a current political instability. All these things add up to a picture that isn't very pretty and while Europe is scurrying to report on these things and try and get a handle on what is actually going on in Britain today and where it might all be headed, Britain itself seems to know there's an elephant in the room but seems quite determined never to mention it. From the outside looking in, it is frightening.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Callan
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# 525

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Europe has its own version of far right nationalists, some of whom make Farage look like Shirley Williams. Nobody in European government wishes to empower them, so there is going to be a fairly solid consensus that Brexit should make things worse for us, rather than better. If I was, for example, President of France I would do nothing that would allow Francine Le Pen to say, look the Brits did it and it worked out all right, why should I follow suit. So, unless you think that Messrs Johnson, Fox and Davis are sufficiently clever that they can outwit the Chancelleries of Europe - all 27 of them - we are going to get a worse deal than we currently get. From an economic POV, the Rest of the World were generally more interested in us because we had access to the Single Market, than not. As we appear to have decided that keeping out the Poles and Romanians is more important than good economic relationships with our main trading partner, I think it is fair to say that they will be less interested in us in future. So they are not going to be putting pressure on the EU to play nice and will exploit our economic vulnerability to ensure that any trade deals are on their terms. And as Messrs Fox, Johnson, and Davis are vain and foolish men they will prefer to be photographed signing a trade deal than worrying too much as to the extent to which it does, or does not, disadvantage us.

Our one slender hope is that, at some point, having outmanoeuvred everyone Teresa May pops up to say: "Brexit means Brexit? Did I say that? I also swear and smoke on occasion". But I have a horrible feeling that the fuckers are all serious.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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I think you're bang on there, Fletcher Christian. We are returning to the "splendid isolation" not seen since Lord Salisbury's day, but without thinking through all the implications, or why that is no longer appropriate.

Certainly we are guilty as charged to wanting all the benefits of EU membership without the inconveniences of actual membership. That was always how this was going to play out, however much the brexiteers may kid themselves otherwise. When it becomes clear that we can't have that, the smelly stuff will hit the rotating blades.

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Posted by Callan:
quote:

...we are going to get a worse deal than we currently get....

That would tend to be a given if you vote yourself out of a grouping which had part of its aims as providing economic stability and support for poorer nations, trade agreements and product protection to encourage local economies.....to name but a few. If all of that goes - which it will - then of course you are getting a worse deal. But as the woman said, 'Brexit means Brexit'; you did actually vote for this. The question isn't, 'Will it be bad?' despite repeated idiotic statements of 'Oh well, I think we don't really know'. Of course we know, it's not going to be at all good for the next while and the key question is, for how long will it be bad. Economic depression - on the back of an economic slump not so very long ago - can lead to other things and right now, looking in from the outside, you seem to have the perfectly heated soup for a little unpleasant bacteria growth.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Stetson
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# 9597

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Callan wrote:

quote:
Europe has its own version of far right nationalists, some of whom make Farage look like Shirley Williams. Nobody in European government wishes to empower them, so there is going to be a fairly solid consensus that Brexit should make things worse for us, rather than better.
This is exactly what I've been thinking, except I might not phrase it it terms of "making things worse" for the UK, so much as just forcing the UK to reckon with the results of its own referendum.

Basically, the EU probably doesn't want to set a precedent where governing parties can say to themselves "Hey, let's hold an Exit referendum just to appease the torch-and-pitchfork mobs, and if the people vote Leave, we can just ignore the reasults like the British did."

[ 06. September 2016, 19:37: Message edited by: Stetson ]

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Europe has its own version of far right nationalists, some of whom make Farage look like Shirley Williams. Nobody in European government wishes to empower them, so there is going to be a fairly solid consensus that Brexit should make things worse for us, rather than better.

I think - as fletcher christian says above - there will be a cost as a mostly natural effect of no longer getting the benefits of the club we have voted to leave.

The will and ability to make Britain a basket case is limited - and repeatedly saying that it isn't just sets the stage for the Farages of this world to continue to blame the travails of the UK on 'Europe'.

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Callan wrote:

quote:
Europe has its own version of far right nationalists, some of whom make Farage look like Shirley Williams. Nobody in European government wishes to empower them, so there is going to be a fairly solid consensus that Brexit should make things worse for us, rather than better.
This is exactly what I've been thinking, except I might not phrase it it terms of "making things worse" for the UK, so much as just forcing the UK to reckon with the results of its own referendum.

Basically, the EU probably doesn't want to set a precedent where governing parties can say to themselves "Hey, let's hold an Exit referendum just to appease the torch-and-pitchfork mobs, and if the people vote Leave, we can just ignore the reasults like the British did."

Either response plays well with the far right narrative. The EU may not want a good deal because it doesn't want to encourage the others, but a bad deal just proves that the EU is so awful that sovereign nations can't even leave without being punished ... The likes of Le Pen are going to have great fun with that.

Tubbs

[ 07. September 2016, 12:47: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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The 'bad deal' Britain gets will be enacting what it voted for - nothing more, nothing less. When it begins the process, as it passes through the process and probably long after the process has finished, Britain will continue its anti-European rhetoric of "Look everyone, we left Europe and they made us leave all the benefits too". This argument makes absolutely no sense to anyone in Europe (and possibly the rest of the world) except Britain who seem to think it is perfectly logical.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Basically, the whole exercise of holding a referendum has allowed the far right in the UK to find a voice (and, far too often their fists, boots, and bricks through windows). Whatever way the vote went, that was always going to happen - the only hope being a resounding "Remain" vote to tell the far right that their views are not popular with the vast majority of the UK population (and, to be clear, I don't believe they are popular with the UK population, but that they have taken the vote to leave to be support for their views).

That also means that the far right in the rest of the EU have also been heartened by the UK referendum. So, Cameron not only encourage the UK far right to take to the streets with their vile message, he also did the same for the far right in France, Germany and everywhere else. Yay for Hameron, screw up the whole of the EU as well as the UK.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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It seems amazing that the Polish Foreign Minister asked the British govt to keep its citizens safe. Maybe this is a common enough request, but I don't remember it before. Yes, Cameron has opened Pandora's box.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Basically, the whole exercise of holding a referendum has allowed the far right in the UK to find a voice (and, far too often their fists, boots, and bricks through windows). Whatever way the vote went, that was always going to happen - the only hope being a resounding "Remain" vote to tell the far right that their views are not popular with the vast majority of the UK population (and, to be clear, I don't believe they are popular with the UK population, but that they have taken the vote to leave to be support for their views).

That also means that the far right in the rest of the EU have also been heartened by the UK referendum. So, Cameron not only encourage the UK far right to take to the streets with their vile message, he also did the same for the far right in France, Germany and everywhere else. Yay for Hameron, screw up the whole of the EU as well as the UK.

It has and it hasn’t. There’s an excellent analysis of the Brexit vote from CEEMEA – sadly subscriber only – that summarises the causes without much emotion:

quote:
The austerity policies of the UK and EU have destroyed job security and undermined real wages over the last 5 and 20 years (also in the USA). People feel they have been mistreated economically and financially. They feel that that their elected representatives have abandoned them and are more concerned about the welfare of a minority running the banking sector or with a minority of foreign migrants; they see that no one was punished for the financial crash of 2008-09; they witness growing social global and regional inequality and manifest corruption and tax avoidance (“Taxes are for poor people”) as exemplified most recently in the Panama Papers, and they see the financial security of their children eroded.
Daniel Thorniley goes on to talk about how the perception of uncontrolled migration was an issue, but also states:

quote:
Accusing people who think like this of being stupid, ignorant, fat racist fools is not constructive and often does not attract their vote, as we have seen. But unless European governments understand this, the political and social outlook for the EU is bitterly bleak.
Bear in mind Daniel has no particular axe to grind and isn’t in the pay of the Mail and the Express.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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fletcher christian

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I think that post illustrates the kind of weird era we live in where one issue becomes clogged and buckles under the weight of three hundred other issues that people tag into it, regardless of their relevance. This has been most noticeable in Irish society where there has been much annoyance over the water charges (more specifically how they have been handled). Every time the water charges protestors organise a rally in the city they are actually outnumbered by the people who come along with their own agendas to pedal. So instead of seeing a sea of anti-water charges placards, you see that with anti-abortion, pro-abortion, anti-austerity, those who wants to the banks dissolved, others on about some random trial, somebody protesting the car tax, etc etc etc. It's become a farce. It was in essence part of the tactics used by the leave campaign too and they used it very effectively. They tapped into certain grievances and claimed that this was what the vote was actually about. We are a generation of outraged people, seeking to outraged about things we don;t even know about and all the while with a deep sense of entitlement without concern for anyone else. This is why, in my personal view, the leave campaign cannot be said to have won because they voted for something that no one can deliver and when they wake up to that you will have an enormous part of the population deeply disenfranchised by current politics and a long list of grievances that will only find an outlet in rage.

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Staretz Silouan

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quetzalcoatl
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Yes, Leave was a hydra-headed monster, but that was its potency, I guess. It's quite interesting watching Mrs May gradually cutting some of the heads off - money for the NHS? No, thank you. A points based immigration policy? Not appropriate.

I was chatting to a UKIP guy who insisted that the vote was over immigration, and I asked where that was on the ballot paper, answer, incoherent rage. So it was a kind of Schrödinger's ballot, it existed in multiple states of virtual meaning.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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quetzalcoatl
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Has somebody mentioned this? The solution, if people like the Japanese leave (cowards), is to rent some empty factories and build the Austin Allegro again. As David Davis said, Glorious! In fact, we could call it the Austin Gloriana.

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Alan Cresswell

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I think I'd said this a long way back up this thread, but it seems to me that the Leave vote was largely a protest against the political system - and the support for Remain from the majority of the political elite only added support to those who just wanted to give a "fuck you" to politicians.

I don't believe for an instant that the majority of Leave voters support the policies of the far right. Even those for whom immigration was a major concern were not racist, though some may have been taken in by people who actually are racist. But, my point earlier was that even though Leave voters don't support the racist far-right thugs, those same racist far-right thugs have a) taken it as indicating that they have the support of 52% of the population, and b) even if the vote went against them were relishing the opportunity to air their views as though they were legitimate views held by a large number of people.

I think that as soon as immigration became an issue in the referendum campaign that the far-right were given a voice they should never have been given. And, Cameron should have known that would happen because the discussion about Brexit was always going to turn to immigration sooner or later.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
Daniel Thorniley goes on to talk about how the perception of uncontrolled migration was an issue, but also states:

quote:
Accusing people who think like this of being stupid, ignorant, fat racist fools is not constructive and often does not attract their vote, as we have seen. But unless European governments understand this, the political and social outlook for the EU is bitterly bleak.

We know it's not constructive. We know it doesn't attract their vote.

It does make me feel better, though, and I'll take what comfort I can.

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quetzalcoatl
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I think Alan C. is right about the fuck you element of the Brexit vote. I come from a town which voted heavily Brexit (Oldham), and I get why they did. It reminds me of Scotland, where people said fuck you to Labour because of feeling taken for granted. But in Scotland they had an alternative; in Oldham they have UKIP.

At the same time, it seems self-destructive - why shouldn't we want the Japanese to leave, who were about to build that big factory on the outskirts of town? Fuck them as well.

Well, I am guessing now. I think some Brexit voters believe the opposite, that there will be more large factories built outside the EU. But who by? Somalia?

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Tubbs

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# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Yes, Leave was a hydra-headed monster, but that was its potency, I guess. It's quite interesting watching Mrs May gradually cutting some of the heads off - money for the NHS? No, thank you. A points based immigration policy? Not appropriate.

I was chatting to a UKIP guy who insisted that the vote was over immigration, and I asked where that was on the ballot paper, answer, incoherent rage. So it was a kind of Schrödinger's ballot, it existed in multiple states of virtual meaning.

I think for many people it was about immigration - most of the people on the Leave stall in my city had what can only be described as racist Tourette's. But for others it wasn't and they voted leave in the hope of getting a rebooted EU, EEFTA membership etc.

For the likes of Nigel F to say, "People voted Leave to get x or y" just isn't true. If you asked 10 people why they voted Leave you'd get 20 different reasons. (Same for Remainers to be fair).

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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quetzalcoatl
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You would predict a lot of disappointment coming up. Already, it seems to be around, as Mrs May says no to NHS money, and no to a points system for immigration. I suppose the govt is trying to balance between the racists, and the requirements of finance and industry, which needs immigration.

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Has somebody mentioned this? The solution, if people like the Japanese leave (cowards), is to rent some empty factories and build the Austin Allegro again. As David Davis said, Glorious! In fact, we could call it the Austin Gloriana.

A car which was more aerodynamic going backwards than forwards. Kind of appropriate really.
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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
You would predict a lot of disappointment coming up. Already, it seems to be around, as Mrs May says no to NHS money, and no to a points system for immigration. I suppose the govt is trying to balance between the racists, and the requirements of finance and industry, which needs immigration.

If industry and commerce need more people then firstly we should:
- forbid British citizens from leaving Britain
- tell ex-patriot Brits to return to the UK (or turn in your British passports and citizenship).

That should sort out the "slide to multi-culturaism" while we are at it.

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Callan
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# 525

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Originally posted by Tubbs:

quote:
The austerity policies of the UK and EU have destroyed job security and undermined real wages over the last 5 and 20 years (also in the USA). People feel they have been mistreated economically and financially. They feel that that their elected representatives have abandoned them and are more concerned about the welfare of a minority running the banking sector or with a minority of foreign migrants; they see that no one was punished for the financial crash of 2008-09; they witness growing social global and regional inequality and manifest corruption and tax avoidance (“Taxes are for poor people”) as exemplified most recently in the Panama Papers, and they see the financial security of their children eroded.
If they think that leaving the Single Market and signing up for some sort of experiment to turn us into Singapore is going to fix any of that I have many bridges to sell them.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Shouting "fuck you!" at the government may feel good, but it's not actually intended to fix anything.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Originally posted by Tubbs:

quote:
The austerity policies of the UK and EU have destroyed job security and undermined real wages over the last 5 and 20 years (also in the USA). People feel they have been mistreated economically and financially. They feel that that their elected representatives have abandoned them and are more concerned about the welfare of a minority running the banking sector or with a minority of foreign migrants; they see that no one was punished for the financial crash of 2008-09; they witness growing social global and regional inequality and manifest corruption and tax avoidance (“Taxes are for poor people”) as exemplified most recently in the Panama Papers, and they see the financial security of their children eroded.
If they think that leaving the Single Market and signing up for some sort of experiment to turn us into Singapore is going to fix any of that I have many bridges to sell them.
I'm not disagreeing. The whole thing is bonkers and will be a world of pain. A hard Brexit seems very likely as both sides are entrenched in their "must have freedom of movement" v "we'd quite like some control over our borders" positions.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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quetzalcoatl
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Some people are talking of a bespoke deal, whereby the UK is sort of attached to the single market, and sort of has exemptions from free movement. The obvious counter-argument is, why should the EU be so generous? They don't want to make it easy to leave.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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The UK already had a bespoke deal, with restrictions on immigration from new EU member states. Cameron had negotiated a further bespoke arrangement relating to welfare payments to immigrants from the rest of the EU.

By definition, the referendum result has already rejected such bespoke arrangements for the UK as a member of the EU, I can't see how one could argue for such bespoke arrangements for the UK outside the EU.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Good points. It does make it look absurd - we are giving up our bespoke deal with the EU, in favour of another bespoke deal.

Why?

Errm, some people don't like foreigners, especially in those areas which don't have any.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Some people are talking of a bespoke deal, whereby the UK is sort of attached to the single market, and sort of has exemptions from free movement. The obvious counter-argument is, why should the EU be so generous? They don't want to make it easy to leave.

In exchange to some contributions to the EU budget and parity on key legislation. That would be the most pragmatic approach as both sides would benefit. But as the hawks seem to be running the show, good luck with that!

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
They don't want to make it easy to leave.

Speaking as a non-Brexiteer though, this is where I start to look a little askance. It does look like the Brussels centre has a view of what the EU is and should look like, which they suspect doesn't have the support of (some? many?) member states.

Ie, they don't want to make it easy to go for something that's just a free-trade deal because everyone else might want it instead too. Doesn't that raise all sorts of questions about *why* the people with the federalist vision should be allowed to keep forcing things in that direction?

Like I say, not a Brexiteer but troubled by the idea that the EU is something that states need to be kept in for their own good, when they might actually want something else.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
They don't want to make it easy to leave.

Speaking as a non-Brexiteer though, this is where I start to look a little askance. It does look like the Brussels centre has a view of what the EU is and should look like, which they suspect doesn't have the support of (some? many?) member states.

Ie, they don't want to make it easy to go for something that's just a free-trade deal because everyone else might want it instead too. Doesn't that raise all sorts of questions about *why* the people with the federalist vision should be allowed to keep forcing things in that direction?

Like I say, not a Brexiteer but troubled by the idea that the EU is something that states need to be kept in for their own good, when they might actually want something else.

Yes, the idea of a looser organization might be attractive to some, although possibly it's very difficult to have a loose free trade area.

I thought the polls were showing that Brexit has increased support for the EU (among Europeans).

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Yes, the idea of a looser organization might be attractive to some, although possibly it's very difficult to have a loose free trade area.

I thought the polls were showing that Brexit has increased support for the EU (among Europeans).

Most states want the idea of a free trade area but they don't want it to be a totally fair trade area, or a harmonised single market (in EU speak). That requires a "level playing field" hence the four freedoms, which inter alia include the free movement of people. Until now the rest of the EU has wanted us *in* to the extent that we have been able to get concessions from the other states. I doubt any future deal will include many of those concessions.

[ 08. September 2016, 12:08: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
They don't want to make it easy to leave.

Speaking as a non-Brexiteer though, this is where I start to look a little askance. It does look like the Brussels centre has a view of what the EU is and should look like, which they suspect doesn't have the support of (some? many?) member states.

Ie, they don't want to make it easy to go for something that's just a free-trade deal because everyone else might want it instead too. Doesn't that raise all sorts of questions about *why* the people with the federalist vision should be allowed to keep forcing things in that direction?

Like I say, not a Brexiteer but troubled by the idea that the EU is something that states need to be kept in for their own good, when they might actually want something else.

There-in lies their problem. Some want more Europe whilst others want less EU and a return to an organisation that’s more trade led. They’re all trying to make those mutually exclusive ideas fit a pint pot designed in a very different time.

Given that the political climate in Europe is changing and there are some big elections coming up, it could all get very interesting from both sides of the divide.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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Jane R
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Callan:
quote:
If they think that leaving the Single Market and signing up for some sort of experiment to turn us into Singapore is going to fix any of that I have many bridges to sell them.

More likely to turn us into North Korea. Now *there's* a country that has control over its borders. Possibly because nobody in their right mind wants to go there, but they must be really happy because noone ever leaves...

...oh wait.

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rolyn
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# 16840

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Errm, some people don't like foreigners, especially in those areas which don't have any.

There is some truth in this. The rural area where I live has a relatively low number of foreigners. We were seeing quite large numbers of Poles about doing mainly factory jobs 10 or more years ago.

Moving into the well and truly hypothetical, I sometimes consider this open area, together with all the other open areas in England, and the the fact it could probably house the entire world's population using modern building technology. The point being our fear of being over run is largely irrational, it dates back to hunter gatherer communities.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:

Speaking as a non-Brexiteer though, this is where I start to look a little askance. It does look like the Brussels centre has a view of what the EU is and should look like, which they suspect doesn't have the support of (some? many?) member states.

Ie, they don't want to make it easy to go for something that's just a free-trade deal because everyone else might want it instead too.

I think your first paragraph misrepresents things for the following reason; The single market is much more than a 'simple' free trade deal/area.

Most free trade deals won't cover services. Secondly, in most free trade arrangements regulation will still be a completely national competence. This raises the possibility of potential non-tariff barriers (widget X made in country Y, regulated by the Widget Engineering Board of Y cannot be sold in country Z because of regulations set by the Widget Engineering board of Z), sometimes these barriers may in fact be punitive and at other times they won't be.

The whole point of a large part of EU regulation is to remove these kinds of barriers. Hence things like the financial passport, where banks regulated by the FSA-equivalents of their own countries, can then sell into other countries without being re-regulated (because of EU regulations and rules covering financial regulators across the EU). In the case of the widget, it means that suddenly you don't have a massive queue of lorries between Y and Z making sure that the widgets being imported comply with the standards of the local Widget Engineering Board.

Of course, every country would like to have complete access to the single market, whilst simultaneously being exempt to the four freedoms itself, so that they could put up barriers against international competition. But if every country operates like that there would no longer be a single market to sell into.

Incidentally, this is why trade deals are an EU level competence - to avoid the same situation being created at a supranational level (Republic of Rurutania selling widgets into Y, now requiring checks on all Widgets moving from Y to Z).

So your question is a little like saying; I want government taxes, but I don't want to pay any taxes and the fact that the government won't let me do that is highly suspect.

[ 08. September 2016, 13:58: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:

Speaking as a non-Brexiteer though, this is where I start to look a little askance. It does look like the Brussels centre has a view of what the EU is and should look like, which they suspect doesn't have the support of (some? many?) member states.

Ie, they don't want to make it easy to go for something that's just a free-trade deal because everyone else might want it instead too.

I think your first paragraph misrepresents things for the following reason; The single market is much more than a 'simple' free trade deal/area.

Most free trade deals won't cover services. Secondly, in most free trade arrangements regulation will still be a completely national competence. This raises the possibility of potential non-tariff barriers (widget X made in country Y, regulated by the Widget Engineering Board of Y cannot be sold in country Z because of regulations set by the Widget Engineering board of Z), sometimes these barriers may in fact be punitive and at other times they won't be.

The whole point of a large part of EU regulation is to remove these kinds of barriers. Hence things like the financial passport, where banks regulated by the FSA-equivalents of their own countries, can then sell into other countries without being re-regulated (because of EU regulations and rules covering financial regulators across the EU). In the case of the widget, it means that suddenly you don't have a massive queue of lorries between Y and Z making sure that the widgets being imported comply with the standards of the local Widget Engineering Board.

Of course, every country would like to have complete access to the single market, whilst simultaneously being exempt to the four freedoms itself, so that they could put up barriers against international competition. But if every country operates like that there would no longer be a single market to sell into.

Incidentally, this is why trade deals are an EU level competence - to avoid the same situation being created at a supranational level (Republic of Rurutania selling widgets into Y, now requiring checks on all Widgets moving from Y to Z).

So your question is a little like saying; I want government taxes, but I don't want to pay any taxes and the fact that the government won't let me do that is highly suspect.

But for some things, particularly services, the single market is still more of a theory than a practice due to local quirks. Like the requirement that all documentation be issued in local language. Meaning that you’re potentially be working with two sets of documentation. The local language one for the regulator and the English one for internal use.

One of the reasons that many of the large US financial companies went to London rather than Paris was because of the common language. (As well as the time differences, the tax regimes and the flexible employment laws). It’s why a lot of them are likely to end up in Dublin if passporting is lost to London.

And, if you’re a refugee seeking asylum, freedom of movement of people isn’t happening either. As many EU counties have closed their borders, including Sweden, loads of them in stuck in transit camps in Greece. Either awaiting processing or, having been processed, nowhere to go. [Frown]

Tubbs

--------------------
"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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