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Source: (consider it) Thread: Bloody Brexiteers
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
A fair enough description. But there's a significant element to be added...

Which group is steering the boat?

An even more significant question is: which group is correct?

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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That's obvious. It's the group that agrees with me.

Unfortunately, the ship has been taken over by mutinous scum and the captain and crew who should be steering us are locked in their cabins.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
That's obvious. It's the group that agrees with me.

Unfortunately, the ship has been taken over by mutinous scum and the captain and crew who should be steering us are locked in their cabins.

And we still have to do the fucking rowing. [Mad]

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Just following through with the latest melodramatic We're All DOOMED! pronouncement on this thread.

What board is this? Oh yeah, Hell. Which, in part, is for gnashing of teeth and wailing, with no designated levels of proportionality. So your whinging about our whinging is within scope, but also kinda ridiculous.
Also, what Sioni said.

--------------------
I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

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Alan:
quote:
It wasn't my analogy either. But, for simplicity we have two groups of people:
1. Those who consider that Brexit has punched a massive hole in the hull, that will eventually sink us
2. Those who consider Brexit is a wee bump that has caused no damage, and we're now free to sail away from Europe to once more rule the waves. With, obviously, no danger of sinking

Actually I belong to another group who:

4) Agree with Tubbs' Group 3 that what's done is done and we have to work on a solution that will see us outside the EU but still with a working economy and functional society and with as little damage to our international reputation as possible, but being British reserve the right to make jokes about the situation. It's the way we cope.

And as Alan says... getting in the lifeboat and rowing away will only work for some people.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
And we still have to do the fucking rowing. [Mad]

That is a very good use of homographs [Smile] .

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Callan
Shipmate
# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Alan:
quote:
It wasn't my analogy either. But, for simplicity we have two groups of people:
1. Those who consider that Brexit has punched a massive hole in the hull, that will eventually sink us
2. Those who consider Brexit is a wee bump that has caused no damage, and we're now free to sail away from Europe to once more rule the waves. With, obviously, no danger of sinking

Actually I belong to another group who:

4) Agree with Tubbs' Group 3 that what's done is done and we have to work on a solution that will see us outside the EU but still with a working economy and functional society and with as little damage to our international reputation as possible, but being British reserve the right to make jokes about the situation. It's the way we cope.

And as Alan says... getting in the lifeboat and rowing away will only work for some people.

I am in group 4a) I think this is what we should work towards with the caveat that, if we can turn things around, we should get on with it. I note that the Swiss Referendum to preclude free movement is on the verge of being tossed out on the grounds that the Swiss Parliament think that losing the trade deal with the EU. If we can effect something similar, well and good, if not we ought to aim for EEA status.

We voted to leave the EU. We did not vote to tank the economy because Nigel Petain doesn't like foreigners. Anyone who says the opposite can die in a fire, frankly.

[ 22. September 2016, 20:03: Message edited by: Callan ]

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Of course, both my groups 1) and 2) would be "what's done is done" - the difference being whether they think it was a good thing or not. Also I assumed that everyone is aiming for making the best of where we are, just with disparate opinions of what that would be. I suppose there could be a minority of people who want to see the UK sink to an obscure footnote in history, a new developing nation on the doorstep of Europe.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Ah. I see. Because I don't agree with you my mental faculties are in question. Got it.

No, in some ways I do agree, but your attitude, to the whole of mankind, appears to have changed and not for the better. It can't be the heat because it's been what passes for winter downunder. Not for the first time, I'm puzzled.
The whole of mankind?

And you're basing this on my engagement with how many threads exactly?

I'm being a grumpy sarcastic bastard on this thread because that's what I think it deserves, especially the kind of spineless whining that you, among others, are engaging in.

Also, we're in Hell you numbskull.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Just following through with the latest melodramatic We're All DOOMED! pronouncement on this thread.

What board is this? Oh yeah, Hell. Which, in part, is for gnashing of teeth and wailing, with no designated levels of proportionality. So your whinging about our whinging is within scope, but also kinda ridiculous.
Also, what Sioni said.

Kinda ridiculous? So, you think that the way Hell has worked for the last X years is that whenever someone comes down here and complains about something, all the other Shipmates gather around and say "oh I KNOW" and offer a cup of tea?

It does happen sometimes. Sometimes the whole Ship is pretty much united in railing against some external villain or circumstance. But if you genuinely think that's standard Hell procedure you're delusional.

Sioni is out of his depth around here.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Ah. I see. Because I don't agree with you my mental faculties are in question. Got it.

No, in some ways I do agree, but your attitude, to the whole of mankind, appears to have changed and not for the better. It can't be the heat because it's been what passes for winter downunder. Not for the first time, I'm puzzled.
The whole of mankind?

And you're basing this on my engagement with how many threads exactly?

I'm being a grumpy sarcastic bastard on this thread because that's what I think it deserves, especially the kind of spineless whining that you, among others, are engaging in.

Also, we're in Hell you numbskull.

No, you pathetic excuse for an educated idiot, you are being a grumpy sarcastic bastard at all times and in all places. All the redeeming defects you may once have had have left you way behind, leaving a sad shell of the orfeo we once knew.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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Oh knock it off. You're suffering from a massive case of confirmation bias which involves reading posts I make here in Hell or in Dead Horses about homophobia and treating them as (a) encapsulating my entire personality and (b) somehow fundamentally changed from the posts I used to make here in Hell or in Dead Horses about homophobia.

I've been telling people when I think their arguments are stupid for years. And around here I've been doing it with exactly the same tone for years.

Thanks for helping to make the thread all about me, though, it's doing my ego wonders. Disappear mysteriously for a while and all the Shipmates get excited. It's like my own gossip column.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Oh knock it off. You're suffering from a massive case of confirmation bias which involves reading posts I make here in Hell or in Dead Horses about homophobia and treating them as (a) encapsulating my entire personality and (b) somehow fundamentally changed from the posts I used to make here in Hell or in Dead Horses about homophobia.

I've been telling people when I think their arguments are stupid for years. And around here I've been doing it with exactly the same tone for years.

Thanks for helping to make the thread all about me, though, it's doing my ego wonders. Disappear mysteriously for a while and all the Shipmates get excited. It's like my own gossip column.

What the hell do any of my posts have to do with your sexual preferences (or those of anyone else for that matter)? You reckon you're the clever one here, compared to me at any rate, so go on, explain my homophobia to me.

--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Oh knock it off. You're suffering from a massive case of confirmation bias which involves reading posts I make here in Hell or in Dead Horses about homophobia and treating them as (a) encapsulating my entire personality and (b) somehow fundamentally changed from the posts I used to make here in Hell or in Dead Horses about homophobia.

I've been telling people when I think their arguments are stupid for years. And around here I've been doing it with exactly the same tone for years.

Thanks for helping to make the thread all about me, though, it's doing my ego wonders. Disappear mysteriously for a while and all the Shipmates get excited. It's like my own gossip column.

What the hell do any of my posts have to do with your sexual preferences (or those of anyone else for that matter)? You reckon you're the clever one here, compared to me at any rate, so go on, explain my homophobia to me.
Um... reading comprehension skills fail on a massive scale?

YOU are the one who said that there had been a personality shift between what I posted back in July and what I'm posting in September. Not just in this thread, you said, but generally. At all times and in all places.

And yet you appear to be unaware that most of my recent posts have been either:

1. Here in Hell; or

2. In Dead Horses relating to homophobia.

I was stupid enough to assume that you knew that, on the basis that you knew how I was behaving "in all places". But no, it appears that you were engaging not in an analysis of my "recent posts" page, but in a bit of melodramatic flair.

Which is a nice way of saying you just made that shit up.

Not one thing in my post indicated that I thought you were homophobic. The phrase "reading posts I make here" does not relate, in any sane world, to posts made by YOU. For a guy who thinks he's detected a change in my psyche based on reading my recent posts, you certainly aren't very good at actually reading my posts.

[ 24. September 2016, 08:53: Message edited by: orfeo ]

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Just following through with the latest melodramatic We're All DOOMED! pronouncement on this thread.

What board is this? Oh yeah, Hell. Which, in part, is for gnashing of teeth and wailing, with no designated levels of proportionality. So your whinging about our whinging is within scope, but also kinda ridiculous.
Also, what Sioni said.

Kinda ridiculous? So, you think that the way Hell has worked for the last X years is that whenever someone comes down here and complains about something, all the other Shipmates gather around and say "oh I KNOW" and offer a cup of tea?

It does happen sometimes. Sometimes the whole Ship is pretty much united in railing against some external villain or circumstance. But if you genuinely think that's standard Hell procedure you're delusional.

Sioni is out of his depth around here.

Yes, I think that is the way Hell works, that is why I am all sweetness and light in this dank preserve. [Roll Eyes]
People are voicing genuine concern about what is very unlikely to be a bettering of the country and the sad state of just what percentage of racist, xenophobes there truly are. I'm not saying that you cannot be a myopic dick about it, I'm just saying that you are being a myopic dick about it.

As for Sioni being out of his depth here, I also had the impression that your behaviour had changed, though prior to your departure and continued upon your return.*
If you think it is because I am out of my depth down here, then it will be diminished capacity that we are sensing.

*If I am wrong, then I am genuinely happy to be wrong.

--------------------
I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541

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According to this article:

The brexit the public wants isn't the one they'll get

52% of the public think that we can stay in the single market but with restrictions on freedom of movement.

Further evidence that 52% of the population don't appreciate the wider implications of their actions (not very hellish but I'm being charitable)

Looks like we're heading for hard Brexit, which will be a very rough ride. Fasten your seatbelts.

Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
According to this article:

The brexit the public wants isn't the one they'll get

52% of the public think that we can stay in the single market but with restrictions on freedom of movement.

Further evidence that 52% of the population don't appreciate the wider implications of their actions (not very hellish but I'm being charitable)

Looks like we're heading for hard Brexit, which will be a very rough ride. Fasten your seatbelts.

Yep. I have come across similar data... I think it's 71% / 69% but can't be bothered to look it up... that's the percentages who want to end free movement and maintain access to the single market.

I am so fed up of the democracy argument... it's what the majority voted for...

It is impossible to have both. Just because people want it doesn't mean that it can happen.

I bet you that most people want lower taxes and the best public services but...

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840

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Brexit the book out soon, film to follow no doubt.

Bojo thought brexit was a non- starter, sent mr C a text....Shock, horror !
TM wasn't truly behind Remain now She's wearing the crown... Conspiracy !

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:


Looks like we're heading for hard Brexit, which will be a very rough ride. Fasten your seatbelts.

I keep hearing this term "Hard Brexit" but I'm puzzled what it means in terms of signing pieces of paper. As far as I can tell it has two facets:

1 We invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and go through the political hoops to disengage from the EU. It seems to me that Art.50 deals with the Lisbon Treaty so all the costs and benefits related to it will exist no more.

2 We don't arrange any trade deals with anyone, not the EU, EEA, Commonwealth nations.

--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541

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AIUI Hard Brexit means we just leave, with no mitigating agreements or concessions.

But what I meant was simply the adjective meaning "difficult" or "something that has to be endured".

Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Just following through with the latest melodramatic We're All DOOMED! pronouncement on this thread.

What board is this? Oh yeah, Hell. Which, in part, is for gnashing of teeth and wailing, with no designated levels of proportionality. So your whinging about our whinging is within scope, but also kinda ridiculous.
Also, what Sioni said.

Kinda ridiculous? So, you think that the way Hell has worked for the last X years is that whenever someone comes down here and complains about something, all the other Shipmates gather around and say "oh I KNOW" and offer a cup of tea?

It does happen sometimes. Sometimes the whole Ship is pretty much united in railing against some external villain or circumstance. But if you genuinely think that's standard Hell procedure you're delusional.

Sioni is out of his depth around here.

Yes, I think that is the way Hell works, that is why I am all sweetness and light in this dank preserve. [Roll Eyes]
People are voicing genuine concern about what is very unlikely to be a bettering of the country and the sad state of just what percentage of racist, xenophobes there truly are. I'm not saying that you cannot be a myopic dick about it, I'm just saying that you are being a myopic dick about it.

As for Sioni being out of his depth here, I also had the impression that your behaviour had changed, though prior to your departure and continued upon your return.*
If you think it is because I am out of my depth down here, then it will be diminished capacity that we are sensing.

*If I am wrong, then I am genuinely happy to be wrong.

Have you not noticed which bits of this conversation have me rolling my eyes at the doom merchants, and which bits don't?

I haven't ever criticised the complaints about racism or xenophobia. What I've criticised is the constant refrain of how the UK is going to become one of the world's great economic basket cases, for the simple reason that a considerable number of countries manage to not be great economic basket cases despite not being EU members.

This particular bit of logic just seems to be rarely addressed. There's this weird fairytale idea that the EU is the sole arbiter of the UK's economic fortunes, which seems completely blind to the fact that being in or out of the EU hasn't been the sole arbiter of other countries' economic fortunes.

--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
This particular bit of logic just seems to be rarely addressed. There's this weird fairytale idea that the EU is the sole arbiter of the UK's economic fortunes, which seems completely blind to the fact that being in or out of the EU hasn't been the sole arbiter of other countries' economic fortunes.

Though, most nations haven't spent the last 50 years becoming closer to Europe markets. Most nations haven't encouraged substantial economic investment built upon access to the Common Market - both for free trade and free movement of labour. Most nations haven't come to depend upon immigrant labour, relying on the ease of employing qualified staff from a vast labour market. And, of course, the UK will also drop out of a large number of trade agreements with non-EU nations with corresponding knock-on effects, on the UK and the other partner.

I agree, the UK isn't going to slide into third-world levels of poverty. But, with increased costs to manufacturers and the service industry, increased difficulty in employing the best people, and potential loss of many of the beneficial EU regulations (on working hours etc) then I can't see how this will not result in a significant reduction in economic prosperity. At least for the period of time that it takes for the UK economy to adapt to a radically different situation - which could easily be several decades.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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Ooh. I was with you right up until the word "decades".

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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There are communities where I live that haven't recovered from the collapse in coal mining/steelworking/shipbuilding, all of which happened in the 80s. That's three decades.

So I'm thinking decades is about right.

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Forward the New Republic

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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

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Rocinante:
quote:
52% of the public think that we can stay in the single market but with restrictions on freedom of movement.

Further evidence that 52% of the population don't appreciate the wider implications of their actions (not very hellish but I'm being charitable)

Yes, but isn't it nice to know that 52% of the electorate are starry-eyed optimists?
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
There are communities where I live that haven't recovered from the collapse in coal mining/steelworking/shipbuilding, all of which happened in the 80s. That's three decades.

So I'm thinking decades is about right.

Communities relying on specific industries, yes.

An entire national economy? I'm more dubious.

--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

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An entire national economy that is disproportionately reliant on service industries; specifically financial services. An entire national economy where many manufacturing plants are owned by foreign corporations, who may be tempted to relocate elsewhere in Europe when we leave the EU unless we remain part of the single market. Except for the Chinese, who are happy to fund the expansion of our nuclear industry.

We don't have vast mineral reserves or huge expanses of unused land; we're geographically close to a number of other well-developed economies that are quite capable of poaching our financial services if we let them; we can't even grow enough food to feed the population. Not a good position to be in.

Tourism ought to be OK, though, if the pound stays weak.

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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A national economy is, to a large extent, the sum of local economies that often rely on a small number of employers. There are several towns heavily dependent on a single car manufacturer. What are implications on those towns if Japanese, Korean or other companies decide that it's better business for them to make future investments in plants within the EU where they can access the single market more efficiently. The plants won't close overnight, but are they going to get converted to new models? If there's increased demand, will those companies expand the UK factories or factories elsewhere in the EU?

Of course, Brexit could be soft and the UK remains within the Common Market, with free movement of goods, services and labour. In which case the UK probably won't face that sort of issue. But, Brexit could be harder, and businesses who have invested in the UK could find they have lost access to the EU market without significant additional expenses (in import/export tariffs, with the additional staff costs relating to the time taken to meet export requirements, and in terms of extra costs for employing the best staff if they need people from outside the UK), in which case they're quite likely to redirect future investment to inside the EU.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
There are communities where I live that haven't recovered from the collapse in coal mining/steelworking/shipbuilding, all of which happened in the 80s. That's three decades.

So I'm thinking decades is about right.

Communities relying on specific industries, yes.

An entire national economy? I'm more dubious.

I don't think you realise just how shit we collectively are at this.

When I was wandering around Western Australia, there were ghost towns - former mining towns that once were homes to ten thousand people - and now almost all gone, because the reason for the town had gone. The people upped and left to follow the work. The town is abandoned and eaten by termites.

Not so in Britain. We have whole towns and villages that serve almost no purpose but to warehouse the unemployed. That is how we've done things here, and there's no incentive for us to change that now.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
There are communities where I live that haven't recovered from the collapse in coal mining/steelworking/shipbuilding, all of which happened in the 80s. That's three decades.

So I'm thinking decades is about right.

Communities relying on specific industries, yes.

An entire national economy? I'm more dubious.

I don't think you realise just how shit we collectively are at this.

When I was wandering around Western Australia, there were ghost towns - former mining towns that once were homes to ten thousand people - and now almost all gone, because the reason for the town had gone. The people upped and left to follow the work. The town is abandoned and eaten by termites.

Not so in Britain. We have whole towns and villages that serve almost no purpose but to warehouse the unemployed. That is how we've done things here, and there's no incentive for us to change that now.

I guess our worst case is that a sizeable chunk of the financial services sector packs its bags and goes to, say, Frankfurt.

If that happens to any great extent then because it will affect London and the South-East, which is where the wealth is, it really will wake a lot of people up and might even realign party politics in Britain.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I guess our worst case is that a sizeable chunk of the financial services sector packs its bags and goes to, say, Frankfurt.

This is an almost word-for-word rehash of what some people said in c. 2000 about would happen if Britain didn't join the Euro.
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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I guess our worst case is that a sizeable chunk of the financial services sector packs its bags and goes to, say, Frankfurt.

This is an almost word-for-word rehash of what some people said in c. 2000 about would happen if Britain didn't join the Euro.
What didn't happen then is no guide to what might happen in the future. Remember that Britain retained a lot of international financial services through deregulation which the banks loved and turned out to cost Britain dear.

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Not joining the Euro may have had some economic impact, I don't really know enough to say and it may be that such things are impossible to measure in a 'might have been' world. I still don't think the main issue is one of economics though - despite it being the main focus of this thread and of all public debate on the subject. To me, it's a much broader issue that involves both European and international politics, social cohesion and a united front against various evils that assault our world, etc, etc. That's not to say that Britain cannot continue to be a part part of this or indeed contribute to it, but I think it would perhaps be very foolish to suggest that a Brexit hasn't seriously weakened their position and given strength and impetus to some of the more unfavourable aspects of various evils that like to have a voice to be heard within Europe.

The major thing I can see - looking in from the outside - is the break up of the UK. Now I could make all manner of jokes about the possible formation of a United Celtic Nations, but leaving aside my draw to be flippant about the subject, I'm not sure England knows what it seems to pushing itself into. It seems to be stumbling blind towards an accidental independence, where Scotland will instigate the break up. Economic survival will certainly be on the agenda of all if/when that happens, but I do think that a Brexit has helped to increase the possibility of an independent Scotland. The knock on effects of this of course would be far more insular politics and the UK really hasn't had to deal with this in any serious way. It faces something of the edge of it in dealing with certain aspects of the politics and social mess of Northern Ireland, but that is generally perceived as being outside the door rather than in the front room. It's when that type of politics becomes 'front room' that a major problem arises.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I guess our worst case is that a sizeable chunk of the financial services sector packs its bags and goes to, say, Frankfurt.

This is an almost word-for-word rehash of what some people said in c. 2000 about would happen if Britain didn't join the Euro.
It really isn't.
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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Not joining the Euro may have had some economic impact, I don't really know enough to say and it may be that such things are impossible to measure in a 'might have been' world. I still don't think the main issue is one of economics though - despite it being the main focus of this thread and of all public debate on the subject. To me, it's a much broader issue that involves both European and international politics, social cohesion and a united front against various evils that assault our world, etc, etc. That's not to say that Britain cannot continue to be a part part of this or indeed contribute to it, but I think it would perhaps be very foolish to suggest that a Brexit hasn't seriously weakened their position and given strength and impetus to some of the more unfavourable aspects of various evils that like to have a voice to be heard within Europe.

The major thing I can see - looking in from the outside - is the break up of the UK. Now I could make all manner of jokes about the possible formation of a United Celtic Nations, but leaving aside my draw to be flippant about the subject, I'm not sure England knows what it seems to pushing itself into. It seems to be stumbling blind towards an accidental independence, where Scotland will instigate the break up. Economic survival will certainly be on the agenda of all if/when that happens, but I do think that a Brexit has helped to increase the possibility of an independent Scotland. The knock on effects of this of course would be far more insular politics and the UK really hasn't had to deal with this in any serious way. It faces something of the edge of it in dealing with certain aspects of the politics and social mess of Northern Ireland, but that is generally perceived as being outside the door rather than in the front room. It's when that type of politics becomes 'front room' that a major problem arises.

It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen there. Northern Ireland would, if it reunited with Eire, automatically join the EU. It’s what they did for Germany.

Scotland would have to obtain independence, apply to join the EU and go through due process. As due process is quite long winded, there could be a time where Scotland is independent and completely reliant on its own resources. And, although they’re coming from a base of 46%, linking independence with EU membership could skew the result. There are several potential outcomes, some better than others:

  • Go for another vote and lose again.
  • Go for another vote and win. Join EFTA. (This might be the best situation. Access to the single market without the Euro or the budgetary rules etc)
  • Go for another vote and win. Join EU.
  • Go for another vote and win. EFTA and EU membership vetoed by Spain.

Frankly, I don’t blame them for going for it. And I wish them all the luck. I just wish they could take London with them. We voted remain in droves!

Tubbs

[ 26. September 2016, 14:30: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Posted by Tubbs:
quote:

It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen there. Northern Ireland would, if it reunited with Eire, automatically join the EU.

Yes, but I'm not sure that's likely. If Scotland got independence I think there might be a likelihood of a united Ireland in my lifetime, but if not, Northern Ireland will become a bit of basket case if there is an economic crash throughout the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland incorporated into Ireland would seem a sensible option, if a tad dicey politically and socially, but I suspect the greatest barrier to it - rather ironically - would be Ireland's own political parties. There is absolutely no appetite for it at all outside of SF and some of them even recently have given the impression that they would vociferously and energetically reject it.

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Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I guess our worst case is that a sizeable chunk of the financial services sector packs its bags and goes to, say, Frankfurt.

This is an almost word-for-word rehash of what some people said in c. 2000 about would happen if Britain didn't join the Euro.
It really isn't.
quote:
A survey by property consultants Healey & Baker indicated that almost half of all senior executives in Europe believe Frankfurt could supersede London as Europe's financial capital.

So will the UK's decision not to adopt the euro in the near future leave London out in the cold?

Or will London be able to fight off the threat from Frankfurt and continue to eclipse continental capitals of finance?

- Frankfurt vs London: The battle for supremacy, BBC, 1999

quote:
Test two How would adopting the single currency affect our financial services?

In theory this means: We'll all want to join the euro if staying outside looks like killing the City of London.

In practice this means: Virtually nothing. No one can judge the euro's real impact on financial services.

Pro-Europeans say: Panic! Everyone's moving to Frankfurt! Sceptics say: Who wants to live in Frankfurt? And anyway it's dollars, not euros, that count in the world of the money-men.


- The five tests, Julian Glover, 2000

quote:
Continental financial centres such as Frankfurt and Paris will try very hard to stimulate the virtuous circle that has taken London to pre-eminence [if Britain became the sole EU member outside the euro-zone]... Continental determination to avoid London’s dominance would undoubtedly increase if it became clear that Britain’s absence from the euro was permanent. And British exclusion from euro-zone finance ministers’ discussions would permit the use of that forum to develop initiatives aimed at enlarging the roles of Continental centres at the expense of London.
- Richard Layard, Willem Buiter, Christopher Huhne, Will Hutton, Peter Kenen and Adair Turner, 2002
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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Don't forget that economists have predicted seven of the last three recessions.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
[QB][/QB]

As I said, nothing of the sort, it's not a rehash, the first is an advocacy organization (for higher property prices in London), the second says nothing of the sort. The only thing that may be is the final PDF (where you exclusively quote from one side of the paper) and where they pose financial exclusion as one of a number of possibilities.

OTOH we know approximately how much business is centered in London due to the FSMA.

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Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
As I said, nothing of the sort, it's not a rehash.

How is "Panic! Everyone's moving to Frankfurt!" (Glover is obviously humorously summarising an argument there) so much different from "the financial services sector packs its bags and goes to, say, Frankfurt."? Or are we talking at cross-purposes?
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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To be fair, you can have two similar warnings, and only one of them produces an actual effect.

Chicken Little
quote:
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Near-Earth asteroid expert
quote:
Yeah, I've some bad news about that 'sky is falling' thing.


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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
As I said, nothing of the sort, it's not a rehash.

How is "Panic! Everyone's moving to Frankfurt!" (Glover is obviously humorously summarising an argument there)
Parodying an argument that was so common you could only find a property consultant who was reporting it second hand?

Also what Doc Tor said.

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Tubbs:
quote:

It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen there. Northern Ireland would, if it reunited with Eire, automatically join the EU.

Yes, but I'm not sure that's likely. If Scotland got independence I think there might be a likelihood of a united Ireland in my lifetime, but if not, Northern Ireland will become a bit of basket case if there is an economic crash throughout the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland incorporated into Ireland would seem a sensible option, if a tad dicey politically and socially, but I suspect the greatest barrier to it - rather ironically - would be Ireland's own political parties. There is absolutely no appetite for it at all outside of SF and some of them even recently have given the impression that they would vociferously and energetically reject it.
SF called for it immediately after the Referendum. A few politicians in Eire did as well, but I got the impression it was because they felt that was the sort of thing they should say rather than because they wanted it.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Very much so. As soon as SF called for it other political parties felt a certain pressure to say the same. I think a large part of that is trying to keep their electorate on side and to ensure they are not politically out-maneuvered by SF (who are a very cunning bunch). The fact that FG said the same was quite astonishing seeing it was effectively their party that created partition, but I think most people would still see through that as being a political game rather than any serious comment. Regardless, I don't care for wreckless statements when the North is bound to be getting a little jittery, and I do wish they would all be a bit more cautious.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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So all the fun is to begin on April/May of 2017. Much quicker than I thought, but I guess May has been under pressure to do something other than utter her favourite catchphrase.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
So all the fun is to begin on April/May of 2017. Much quicker than I thought, but I guess May has been under pressure to do something other than utter her favourite catchphrase.

That, and it has dawned on her and the rest of the government that an Act of Parliament can only be undone by another Act of Parliament, hence the Great Repeal Bill.

That still leaves a stack of legislation and regulation the Brexiteers didn't want and will take years to undo.

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Cod
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# 2643

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As the European Communities Act 1972 empowers Brussels to make law for the UK, yes it does make sense to repeal it as of the date the UK leaves the EU. I would be surprised if any parliamentarian didn't realise that.

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M.
Ship's Spare Part
# 3291

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Early on, I heard some talk of amending the European Communities Act, which would save European legislation brought into law in the ÛK via stautory instrument, but wouldn't save EU Regulations*.

My guess - and it is just a guess - is that we will need some sort of general statute into which we can dump all EU Regulations and those parts of Directives brought into force by S/I under the Act. We can then spend the next however many years (10 perhaps?) sorting through and deciding what we want to keep, what amend and what discard.

*EU Directives have to be brought into force by each member state. In the UK this is done sometimes by Act of Parliament, which is, well, an Act of Parliament but mostly by statutory instrument, which is secondary legislation and requires an Act of Parliament to have any validity. A lot is brought in under the EC Act, so if that is repealed, all that law disappears. EU Regulations are directly effective and don't have to be brought into force by member states. So when we leave, all that will go also.

I think we need a big bag to dump it all in while it gets sorted out.

M.

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
As the European Communities Act 1972 empowers Brussels to make law for the UK, yes it does make sense to repeal it as of the date the UK leaves the EU. I would be surprised if any parliamentarian didn't realise that.

For some time the government was harrumphing about not needing anything like a vote in Parliament. The threat of legal action has brought the government round.

btw, I see that the Great Repeal Bill will also end the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (based in Luxembourg) within the UK. I'm sure the Brexiteers will be pleased at that but many will be disappointed that European Court of Human Rights (based in Strasbourg) will remain effective. We would have to withdraw from the Council of Europe to do that.

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by M.:
Early on, I heard some talk of amending the European Communities Act, which would save European legislation brought into law in the ÛK via stautory instrument, but wouldn't save EU Regulations*.

My guess - and it is just a guess - is that we will need some sort of general statute into which we can dump all EU Regulations and those parts of Directives brought into force by S/I under the Act. We can then spend the next however many years (10 perhaps?) sorting through and deciding what we want to keep, what amend and what discard.

*EU Directives have to be brought into force by each member state. In the UK this is done sometimes by Act of Parliament, which is, well, an Act of Parliament but mostly by statutory instrument, which is secondary legislation and requires an Act of Parliament to have any validity. A lot is brought in under the EC Act, so if that is repealed, all that law disappears. EU Regulations are directly effective and don't have to be brought into force by member states. So when we leave, all that will go also.

I think we need a big bag to dump it all in while it gets sorted out.

M.

Yeah, those are all plausible thoughts. It's not too difficult, if that's what is wanted, to do something that preserves the laws that they want to preserve and doesn't chance the legal landscape.

In which case what changes is that the UK is no longer obliged to adopt new EU laws or amendments, and decides entirely for itself what to do with those laws already on the books.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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