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» Ship of Fools   » Community discussion   » Hell   » Wrong again Winston. (Page 2)

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Source: (consider it) Thread: Wrong again Winston.
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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Isn't there also something about hindsight; that an individual might have made a different/better decision if they'd been in a position to know then what they know now.

Sometimes the emergency professionals make tragic mistakes. More often it is simply a tragic result of proper decisions made with the best of intentions at the time with faulty or imperfect information.

It is hard for outsiders to know the difference.

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arse

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BroJames
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# 9636

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Here is a fuller account of the reason for not using the Amber alert system
quote:
Sonoma County officials had contemplated sending out such an alert, but decided against it because of the concern the alert would have pinged “every cellphone connected to a cell tower in Sonoma County,” Jennifer Larocque, a county spokeswoman, said Thursday. That could have caused unnecessary gridlock on the streets of the county far away from the fire and could have impeded the arrival of emergency responders to threatened areas, she said.
The Amber alert system would have alerted every single cellphone user connected to a Sonoma county tower - whether they were in the danger area or not. The system was not up to alerting people locally enough for the hazards presented by the fires.

More of the complexity of the situation is evident from the Sacramento Bee story.

Posts: 3245 | From: UK | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Put simply, the alert system as currently configured is not able to issue the sort of alert that Twilight wanted to see issued. I expect that after the smoke has cleared and people have a chance to learn lessons then changes to the way alerts are issued will be on the table - though whether there's a better system is another matter.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 32119 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
RooK

1 of 6
# 1852

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Worth noting: I think the energy people are feeling about this has more to do with the horror of the situation(s) - the sadness of it all, our inability to see a way to make things better, and the visceral sense of desperation that we all might be working to quell - than anything personal about Twilight, or her flailing anger that more couldn't be done.
Posts: 15143 | From: Portland, Oregon, USA, Earth | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Carex
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# 9643

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:


More often it is simply a tragic result of proper decisions made with the best of intentions at the time with faulty or imperfect information.


Indeed, whether or not a decision is the "right" or "best" decision is not determined by the final outcomes, but is based upon the information available at the time the decision was made. ("Information available" in that context also specifically includes what you don't know, and relative probabilities of possible outcomes.)

In emergency response there may be lives at stake on such decisions - often the potential for a loss of lives and property regardless of what decision is made. Loss of life inidicates a bad circumstance, but not necessarily a bad decision.

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Gee D
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# 13815

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I have friends who are haunted by their inability to predict the next failure of the Anatolian fault system.

They know with 100% certainty that it'll happen, with considerably less certainty as to where, and less still as to when. People will die, and there's not a damn thing they can do about it.

Thurber got it right when he pointed out that earthquakes started when large families of rabbits got together and thumped their feet in unison (although he was really lampooning those who blamed earthquakes on gays).

Hindsight is marvellous. Had I known Mary Fairfax's promotion of her son in his scheme to take over the company, I would have bought more shares before she publicised her plan and sold them very quickly after young Warwick got into the seat. Money for jam. Had the weather forecast for the for the 1998 Sydney to Hobart yacht race picked up the small signs of the potential for the strengthening of the storm, warnings would have gone out sooner. All sorts of other examples spring to mind.

The other matter is that none of us was on the ground, working in the worsening condition and making a thousand or more decisions - where do we send these firefighters, what extra equipment do we need on the ground there and how do we deliver it. All these and many, many more. It's inevitable that looking back in 3 months lessons will be learned. That does not necessarily mean fault at first instance and it's grossly unfair to cast blame without a full enquiry.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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Ahh, Warwick Fairfax. That takes me back. I remember the cartoons of him especially.

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Human

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Gee D
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# 13815

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He was a good cricketer, bowled many a maiden over.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

Posts: 6714 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008  |  IP: Logged
balaam

Making an ass of myself
# 4543

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quote:
Thurber got it right when he pointed out that earthquakes started when large families of rabbits got together and thumped their feet in unison (although he was really lampooning those who blamed earthquakes on gays).

<snip>

That does not necessarily mean fault at first instance and it's grossly unfair to cast blame without a full enquiry. [/QB]

I love a post that starts about earthquakes and ends about fault.

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Fearfully and wonderfully mad
Love the dinner, hate the din.
ن
blog

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Gee D
Shipmate
# 13815

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Thank you. No doubt your cheque for the usual amount is in the mail?

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

Posts: 6714 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008  |  IP: Logged
Huia
Shipmate
# 3473

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I have friends who are haunted by their inability to predict the next failure of the Anatolian fault system.

They know with 100% certainty that it'll happen, with considerably less certainty as to where, and less still as to when. People will die, and there's not a damn thing they can do about it.

We have a similar problem with the Alpine Fault that runs the length of the South Island. There is a small town, Franz Joseph (named after a nearby glacier) that (from memory) sits astride the fault and will have to be moved. When the fault does go, and it seems to be a when, rather than an if, - it's been suggested the shaking in Christchurch will last around 8 minutes. I have heard seismologists suggest that, given the pattern of movement over the years, the odds are high that it will be in the next fifty years. I'm hoping that if it does, I will be dead by then.

Being a seismologist and dealing with this stuff isn't a job for the faint-hearted, but I have been very grateful to those who can explain the technical background clearly. I find it scary but fascinating.

Huia

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Charity gives food from the table, Justice gives a place at the table.

Posts: 10115 | From: Te Wai Pounamu | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Amos

Shipmate
# 44

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Churchill may well be a bastard, but the quotation attributed to him in the OP comes from FDR's first inaugural address.

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At the end of the day we face our Maker alongside Jesus--ken

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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[Killing me]

Can't believe no one else picked up on that. Including me.

Posts: 24412 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged



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