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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Accroc de la politique (hooked on French politics): the second round
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Some while back there was a thread called "Accroc de la politique" to discuss the 2012 French presidential election. It seems to have been summarily deleted (not even in Oblivion ![[Waterworks]](graemlins/bawling.gif) ) so I thought I'd start its successor amid the news that François Hollande has emerged as the Socialist party candidate for the job.
Faithful to the French tradition of "alternance", I would like to vote Socialist just to give the other lot a turn, but when I see electoral pledges including lowering the retirement age to 60 and getting out of nuclear power I can't help wondering whether I haven't just landed at Woodstock.
What say ye, Ship Francophiles and pundits?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
Lowering the Retirement age to 60? Good luck paying for that.
Getting out of nuclear power? Well, that's going to be inconvenient what with all those reactors and such. Plus there are the missiles, the subs and the aircraft carrier. I'm sure the Generals and Admirals would throw a right tantrum if you took away their toys.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
I should think Sarkozy cannot believe his luck. Something like three quarters of France's electrical energy comes from nuclear power. No country in the world can afford to lower the age of retirement.
Remember Sir Humphrey. Courageous and far-sighted policies will not only lose you the next election, but the one after that.
Reminds me of the UK Labour Party in the 1980s.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Bof.* On reflection, I think Martine Aubry was a better candidate. I'm not excited about Hollande's lack of political experience.
I'm not a Sarko fan, but to my mind he's looking far more capable of actually running the country at the mo. Assuming for the sake of argument that Hollande actually can get elected, I'm not sure how many of the more optimistic policies he actually could put into practice.
*French for "meh" ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I wonder what Marine Le Pen makes of the outcome?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Desert Daughter
Shipmate
# 13635
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Posted
With Hollande as opponent Number One, Sarkozy is finding his 'traditional' electorate being nibbled away on two fronts: To the right, Madame Le Pen will undoubtedly do what she can. Many people who used to vote Sarkozy because of his posturing as a strongman who 'cleans up' the country (remember the "Kärcher" quip?) will now flirt with the Front National.
On the other hand, Hollande (in contrast to Madame Aubry, who is much more of a left-winger) is a feasible vote for people who are not typical socialist voters, but who are more convinced by Hollande's down-to-earth, realistic aproach than by Sarkozy. So I expect a number of moderate conservatives to vote for Hollande.
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Phos Hilaron
Shipmate
# 6914
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I should think Sarkozy cannot believe his luck. Something like three quarters of France's electrical energy comes from nuclear power. No country in the world can afford to lower the age of retirement.
Remember Sir Humphrey. Courageous and far-sighted policies will not only lose you the next election, but the one after that.
Reminds me of the UK Labour Party in the 1980s.
Mr. Hollande has a secret plan to replace the nuclear power stations with giant hamster wheels hooked up to generators. Even now, at the Ecole Nationale Superieure de Techniques Avancees, there's a black project breeding hamsters the size of pit ponies.
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Gaero?.......Gaero!
Posts: 1684 | From: Choson | Registered: May 2004
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the giant cheeseburger
Shipmate
# 10942
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Phos Hilaron:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I should think Sarkozy cannot believe his luck. Something like three quarters of France's electrical energy comes from nuclear power. No country in the world can afford to lower the age of retirement.
Remember Sir Humphrey. Courageous and far-sighted policies will not only lose you the next election, but the one after that.
Reminds me of the UK Labour Party in the 1980s.
Mr. Hollande has a secret plan to replace the nuclear power stations with giant hamster wheels hooked up to generators. Even now, at the Ecole Nationale Superieure de Techniques Avancees, there's a black project breeding hamsters the size of pit ponies.
And I thought that Socialists generally opposed genetic modification? ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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If I give a homeopathy advocate a really huge punch in the face, can the injury be cured by giving them another really small punch in the face?
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Phos Hilaron
Shipmate
# 6914
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Posted
Hence the need for secrecy.
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Gaero?.......Gaero!
Posts: 1684 | From: Choson | Registered: May 2004
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by the giant cheeseburger:
And I thought that Socialists generally opposed genetic modification?
Nah, that's Greens. Socialists only oppose genetic modification when it is done in the interests of the ruling class, as is inevitable under capitalism.
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Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
ENSTA is a couple of hundred yards round the corner from my house. I'll sneak round there with a pair of binoculars.
Back on topic, Marine le Pen seems to have gone quiet. Maybe she's regrouping ![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif) . I don't think she's been able to capitalise on the DSK saga as much as she hoped.
The opinion polls are currently showing François Hollande winning the first round ahead of Sarko, followed by a comfortable victory for Hollande in the second round. Le Pen gets about 20% which is frankly alarmingly high, but not enough to get her into the second round. This might be a honeymoon period, I suppose.
[Edited for shonky grammar]
[ 19. October 2011, 12:41: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
This might be a honeymoon period, I suppose.
Hardly, it's the childbearing period! Can you take your binoculars round to the clinique?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Desert Daughter
Shipmate
# 13635
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Posted
quote:
Can you take your binoculars round to the clinique? [/QB]
No. Yet another juniorsarkozy (there are already so many...albeit from different Mamans ) is not half as interesting as pit-pony sized hamsters.
But don't you worry.
Never, ever will the French bid au revoir to their beloved nuclear technology and their unlimited faith in it. ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif) Technocrats 'R Us.
Remember, this is la patrie of positivism. Neither hamsters nor presidential babies will be able to sway this deep-seated faith the French have in their technology.
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"Prayer is the rejection of concepts." (Evagrius Ponticus)
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
I don't think Sarko is going to make all that much kilometreage out of the baby - after all, what ticked off a lot of French people was that he seemed to make his private life too public.
OTOH, I think the Sarko camp does want to try to profit from the death of Gaddafi. I expect to see him charging about saying (in not so many words) "that was my idea! Mine! It was MOI!" Brice Hortefeux has already come out with words to this effect.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Desert Daughter
Shipmate
# 13635
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
I don't think Sarko is going to make all that much kilometreage out of the baby - after all, what ticked off a lot of French people was that he seemed to make his private life too public.
...indeed. And his first statement after juniora's birth is that his joy is "mostly private". He's learned the lines his spindoctors probably gave him, hasn't he? I would not be too surprised if les Sarkozy present themselves during the coming months as a thoroughly discrète bourgeoise family; the withholding of juniora's first name is an early indication of this.
Make no mistake, Carla & Nicolas are a great show act.If Hollande plays the "Monsieur Normal" part, Sarko will join him. Aven after all those years on
"bling bling" . Fortunately, Voters' memories are very short term.
And BTW, let's hope the child takes after the mother...
[ 20. October 2011, 18:58: Message edited by: Desert Daughter ]
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"Prayer is the rejection of concepts." (Evagrius Ponticus)
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moonlitdoor
Shipmate
# 11707
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Posted
I wanted to ask about Desert Daughter saying that Hollande is the more realistic compared with Martine Aubry.
I had thought that they had gone from DSK who must from the IMF have known the harsh economic realities all too well, to someone whose promises on pension age and nuclear power suggested he needs descendre de son nuage. ( to leave cloud cuckoo land )
So is there a big gap politically between DSK and the other Socialists or is it just standard practice to make grand and unlikely promises ?
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We've evolved to being strange monkeys, but in the next life he'll help us be something more worthwhile - Gwai
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Desert Daughter
Shipmate
# 13635
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Posted
@moonlitdoor: I was saying that Hollande's approach is more realistic & down to earth than Sarkozy's. And that he's less staunchly left-wing than Mme Aubry. In other words, Hollande is much less of a controversial candidate, more likely to appeal to a wide range of vioters, from traditional PS voters to the more centrist ones, and those who would have voted Bayrou (if he ran).
And yes there is quite a tendency to make grand promises. DSK, had he been a candidate, would have done the same, experience from the IMF or not.
I don't think Hollande is completely wrapped up in a 'nuage' (he is less so than his ex Ségolène Royal when she ran for president)
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Interesting discussion over lunch yesterday (one of my favourite things about French people - sitting round with big plates of food discussing politics for hours)... if the Socialists get in, how much are they going to spend and how long will it be before they bankrupt the country?
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
The Economist recently quoted a PS insider as saying it would be a question of months or even weeks before an elected socialist government would renege on the wilder of its election promises. If I could be sure of that, they would get my vote.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Ooh! Now Dominique de Villepin has thrown his hat in the ring. That's sure to annoy the Sarkozystes.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
And now so has Sarkozy. The worst the opposition seem to be able to say against him is that the sea in the background in his campaign poster is the Aegean.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
If it was taken from the deck of the aircraft carrier, surely it was example la gloire de la patrie instead of a faux-pas?
Er, how many French cliches can I put into this post? ![[Ultra confused]](graemlins/confused2.gif)
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Drewthealexander
Shipmate
# 16660
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Posted
With respect to retirement age (or more specifically the age at which the state pension can be drawn), I am reminded of a song.
The only way is up.
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Do you think this will make any difference to the FN/Marine Lepen's campaign (pleease)?
I expect her to do a lot better than her dad did last time round, but not to make it into the second round.
I also expect Sarko to do a lot better than one might think from reading the BBC.
I certainly don't think Hollande is a shoo-in.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
If it carries on like this Marine LePen won't be able to get on the ballot
Dream on. She's using the same tactic her dad pulled in 2002 and 2007. I'll bet you anything she gets the signatures, or more likely already has them tucked in a drawer somewhere. She's just playing the victim.
quote:
Meanwhile, there was a general consensus over lunch on Sunday that François Hollande is talking nonsense. He says he would create a 75% top tax band, which as far as we can tell would just result in a mass exodus of rich French people to Switzerland.
I agree, but I submit that says as much about the people you have lunch with as anything else. I haven't found anybody working in business that wants to vote Socialist, but get out into la France d'en bas [untranslatable phrase roughly meaning 'anywhere outside the Paris ring road'] and it's a different story.
As I posted before, I think Hollande's promises are so wild they wouldn't last five minutes after him coming to power, and I'm also bothered about his abilities. I hate Sarko's domestic security policies and his home affairs minister Claude Guéant is just vile, but they do appear to be competent.
I can't help wondering whether we might end up with a cohabitation with a president of one stripe and a government of the other (a general election is due not long after the presidential one). That would be a very French thing to happen.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Meanwhile, there was a general consensus over lunch on Sunday that François Hollande is talking nonsense. He says he would create a 75% top tax band, which as far as we can tell would just result in a mass exodus of rich French people to Switzerland.
I agree, but I submit that says as much about the people you have lunch with as anything else. I haven't found anybody working in business that wants to vote Socialist, but get out into la France d'en bas [untranslatable phrase roughly meaning 'anywhere outside the Paris ring road'] and it's a different story.
Yes and no, I think some of my friends may still vote Socialist, precisely because they don't think Hollande will actually do it. Doesn't mean he's not talking nonsense, tho.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
If it carries on like this Marine LePen won't be able to get on the ballot
quote:
Originally posted by me:
Dream on. She's using the same tactic her dad pulled in 2002 and 2007. I'll bet you anything she gets the signatures, or more likely already has them tucked in a drawer somewhere. She's just playing the victim.
As predicted ![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif)
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Yes, but when the Socialist spokesperson was asked about Sarko's threatened changes to the Schengen agreement on France Info a few days ago, the spokesperson clearly had no idea what the Schengen agreement was, since their reply was all about austerity measures... (but then again current transport minister NKM has no idea how much a Paris metro ticket costs)
<throws up hands in gallic gesture of despair>
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Of all the gloomy faces at the Stade de France on Sunday afternoon, Sarkozy's must have won all the prizes. He looks like a man who knows what happened to Harold Wilson in 1970.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I don't think he's into rugby...
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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malik3000
Shipmate
# 11437
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I can't help wondering whether we might end up with a cohabitation with a president of one stripe and a government of the other (a general election is due not long after the presidential one). That would be a very French thing to happen.
ISTM a situation not all that dissimilar from what happens in the US sometimes.
But could the voters pull another surprise and put Le Pen fille in 2nd place like they did her dad?
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God = love.
Otherwise, things are not just black or white.
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I doubt it. Barring major upset, the left has more groundswell than it did in 2002. The FN might do better than before in the general election though.
[ 14. March 2012, 09:11: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
I also doubt it. Last time the National Front made it to the second round Le Pen the elder faced a centre-right candidate (Chirac). One of the reasons is that people didn't take the first round seriously enough, and voted for the Communists et al. with the intention of switching to the Socialists in the second round. I think they've mostly learned their lesson.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Well, I got my voter's card this morning. Choices, choices...
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Hmm. François Hollande declares that the Toulouse killings demonstrate that quote:
Our laws have been strengthened against this threat, and it can be said that this arsenal is flawed
to which PM François Fillon replies, in similar vein to others in the government quote:
We do not have the right in this country to permanently monitor someone when they have committed no crime, without the decision of a judge. We live in a state of law (...) Belonging to a Salafist organisation is not an offence in and of itself (...) We cannot mix up religious fundamentalism with terrorism, even if we know there are elements that unite them
It's ironic that the socialists are calling for even more repressive laws than those on the right. Stalinism rears its head? They'll be recommending the use of pre-cogs next...
Coupled with the rise of Melenchon, I think the events have to be good news for Sarko, at least in the first round.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Well, a few days to go to the first round of the elections and the candidates' manifestos have finally arrived in the post - all ten of them.
François Hollande's just seems waffly. Well, he is committed to keeping petrol prices stable for three months, so that's a point in his favour...
Sarko's is littered with the word "protect" and a commitment for all prison sentences handed down to be served, no parole eligibility before half the sentence is served in any event and systematic application of tariff sentencing for repeat offenders. Oh dear, he just lost my first-round vote, at least.
Eva Joly (Greens) has apparently balanced her books, but what's this? an end to nuclear power within 20 years, oh dear...
There's always Jacques Cheminade's proposals to refill lake Chad and develop space exploration
I think François Bayrou will get my first-round vote after all. The only candidate that seems to have an agenda concentrating on reforming the executive, which seems more presidential than throwing out petty gifts to the voters. Arrogant yes, but looks positively humble next to Sarko. Not anti-nuclear power. And if by some miracle he could get a decent first-round score, either Hollande or Sarko might be persuaded to make him prime minister, usefully tempering the loony left rise of Melanchon for the socialists and the nastier bits of the UMP's agenda on the right.
And yet... will not voting for one of the top two candidates create the risk of Marine Le Pen making it through to the second round à la 2002 ![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
Decisions, decisions...
[ 18. April 2012, 21:19: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Are you trying to influence my voting choices?
Oh and when I said half the prison term I meant two-thirds ![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
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Tom Paine's Bones
Apprentice
# 17027
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Posted
Mélenchon looks interesting. I'm not sure I'd agree with him on everything (to be honest, I don't know very much about him, just what I've seen on a few youtube videos of his speeches), but it seems that he is at least raising important issues and getting closer to the root of the economic crisis.
1990s modernising social democrats (the Blairs and Schröders of the world) have completely sold out any principle they once had to neo-liberalism, globalisation and financial corporate capitalism. I'd like someone with a bit more principle and backbone on the left to rebalance things.
Not necessarily saying that Mélenchon is the one to do that, or even that, if I were French, I'd vote for him in the first round (I'd also want to look closely at the credentials of the Greens and the other leftish parties), but he does seem to be the only one with enough traction to be a serious contender and make it into third place ahead of FN.
Maybe he will be able to put on a bit of pressure from the left. The good old tradition of sinistrisme!
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New Yorker
Shipmate
# 9898
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Posted
Do I understand the election process correctly? There are two rounds of voting. The two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round then proceed to the second round?
How soon after a president is chosen in the second round is he installed?
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Wesley J
Silly Shipmate
# 6075
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Posted
I'm afraid to chip in as cheese-eating surrender monkey grammar Vichy person: it's 'accro', without the final 'c' in the thread title, not 'accroc'.
Just sayin'.
Mais continuez seulement. / Please continue. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)
Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Do I understand the election process correctly? There are two rounds of voting. The two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round then proceed to the second round?
That's right. I think. In smaller elections there is a two-round process but if they get enough votes, three candidates go through to have a triangulaire (stop snickering in the back there). I don't think that can happen in a presdential election though.
quote:
How soon after a president is chosen in the second round is he installed?
Not long, but I don't know offhand. The more fun aspect is that general elections are due just afterwards, so in a true spirit of French perversity and further innuendo, we could end up with a cohabitation with a president of one stripe and a government of another. Which we had briefly at the end of the Mittérand era.
The latest excitement here is the Attorney General threatening to prosecute anyone on the planet who gives exit poll numbers before all the polling stations are closed, which a number of foreign agencies and French paper Libération are claming they will do.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Latest Opinion poll. François Hollande is out ahead, by the looks of things - and Sarko would have a *lot* of catching up to do in the second round. His problem is that Mélenchon's supporters are mostly going to vote for Hollande in the second round, but he can't rely on e.g. Marine Lepen's supporters coming round to him (Sarko).
I think the poll underneath is interesting too - for the French challenged, the second question is "is this your firm decision or might you still change your mind?"
And because moi aussi je suis pédantique (I too am a pedant), the Larousse dictionary has accroc ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I think opinion pollsters should be locked away somewhere. They really are the delphic priests of the modern age. We might as well look at goat entrails. Which of them predicted Jospin losing out to Le Pen in 2002?
France Info this morning was screaming about a 3% shift away from Sarko. If my calculations are right, that means about 30 fewer people in their survey said they would vote for him than the previous time. And of course each survey uses a different sample, so talking in terms of shifts in opinion from one to the next is nonsensical.
<sigh>
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Gracie
Shipmate
# 3870
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
And because moi aussi je suis pédantique (I too am a pedant), the Larousse dictionary has accroc
Hmm... sorry to disappoint you but if you read the definition, it doesn't mean the same thing as accro by the lights of the same dictionary.
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When someone is convinced he’s an Old Testament prophet there’s not a lot you can do with him rationally. - Sine
Posts: 1090 | From: En lieu sûr | Registered: Dec 2002
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Sir Pellinore
Quester Emeritus
# 12163
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I don't think he's into rugby...
He feigned interest in it because the French team played so superbly at the last World Cup. They came pretty damn close to winning. Their official reception in Paris was staged like a national triumph.
He's not the Rugby type. He wouldn't be able to look immaculate and is far too small, even as a back, for the modern game.
Allez Les Bleus sans Sarko! Vive la France!
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Well...
Posts: 5108 | From: The Deep North, Oz | Registered: Dec 2006
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Hollande: 28.4%
Sarkozy: 25.5%
(8pm estimates)
Other parties suggest more votes on the right among runner-up candidates. Marine Le Pen in third place with a better score than her dad in 2002 ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
[ 22. April 2012, 18:02: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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