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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: A misunderstood man?
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me.
Interesting observation about the survey in question - it doesn't have any indication of the ethnic breakdown of the respondents. Quite a glaring omission, I'd have said!
I point this out because here in the West Midlands, apparently the worst area for racism in the country, there is a not-insignificant amount of tension between the Asian (Pakistani/Indian rather than Chinese/Japanese) and Carribbean communities. I've heard some really nasty stuff being said by people from each of those communities about the other, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was responsible for a reasonable amount of the reported prejudice.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
If the government had acted properly on the architects of the economic collapse, who have largely got away scot-free with all our money and are still able to pay themselves vast wealth they've neither earned or created, then I don't think we'd be having this conversation.
It's classic scape-goating. It's not the responsibility of the financiers and bankers who ran up their huge gambling debts (which we have to pay), but the immigrants and the poor!
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me.
Interesting observation about the survey in question - it doesn't have any indication of the ethnic breakdown of the respondents. Quite a glaring omission, I'd have said!
I point this out because here in the West Midlands, apparently the worst area for racism in the country, there is a not-insignificant amount of tension between the Asian (Pakistani/Indian rather than Chinese/Japanese) and Carribbean communities. I've heard some really nasty stuff being said by people from each of those communities about the other, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was responsible for a reasonable amount of the reported prejudice.
I agree it would be an issue, and probably one of the reasons for the support of UKIP by some people with an ethnic minority background.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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M.
Ship's Spare Part
# 3291
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Posted
Originally posted by Doublethink:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me.
Interesting observation about the survey in question - it doesn't have any indication of the ethnic breakdown of the respondents. Quite a glaring omission, I'd have said!
I point this out because here in the West Midlands, apparently the worst area for racism in the country, there is a not-insignificant amount of tension between the Asian (Pakistani/Indian rather than Chinese/Japanese) and Carribbean communities. I've heard some really nasty stuff being said by people from each of those communities about the other, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was responsible for a reasonable amount of the reported prejudice.
I agree it would be an issue, and probably one of the reasons for the support of UKIP by some people with an ethnic minority background.
I half-heard this being discussed with (I think) one of the authors of the report this morning on Radio 4 (as I was getting ready for work) and I think the researcher said that it was indeed the same story among all ethnicities.
M.
Posts: 2303 | From: Lurking in Surrey | Registered: Sep 2002
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Usage of words such as 'swamped', 'tide', etc when referring to immigration in the media does not of course help public perception. Nevertheless, the perceived problem seems to be less of "they're nicking our jobs" (although that is certainly there) and more of Britain being somehow 'changed' by the level of immigration plus (apparent) lack of integration by the new arrivals - what Trevor Phillips some years ago characterised as 'colonisation'.
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Justinian
Shipmate
# 5357
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Rupert Myers, a Guardian writer who seems to have have been somehow involved with left-of-centre campaigns in the election(though it's not clear in what capacity), argues that racism is of comparitively minor importance among the reasons for UKIP's electoral appeal.
He also makes the related observation that the UKIP's lack of support in London is not because London is more tolerant, but because it is more affluent.
Anyone arguing that UKIP lacks support in London and puts that as straight up a consequence of London being special does not know what they are talking about. In the local elections UKIP managed a dozen seats in London (Seven in Havering, three in Bexley, two in Bromley). By the standards of major cities this makes London a bastion of UKIP support. Between Manchester, Liverpool, Preston, Newcastle, Sunderland, Gateshead, Birmingham, Coventry, Wolverhampton, Leeds, and Hull UKIP managed a grand total of two seats. (In Sheffield they managed three).
Mysteriously it's the people living furthest from high density populations, and in the regions with fewest immigrants that are most likely to vote UKIP.
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My real name consists of just four letters, but in billions of combinations.
Eudaimonaic Laughter - my blog.
Posts: 3926 | From: The Sea Coast of Bohemia | Registered: Dec 2003
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Justinian:
Mysteriously it's the people living furthest from high density populations, and in the regions with fewest immigrants that are most likely to vote UKIP.
Well, this kind of gibes well with the observation that a large percentage of UKIP *voters* as opposed to candidates, are former Tories over the age of 40. It's the classic squeezed middle, who are relatively okay economically but who fear their future after the economic squeeze of the last few years.
So the it's the fear of change rather than necessarily the reality of change that drives them. This is also probably why they put the EU as way down their agenda (compared to the NHS etc).
Given that this runs counter to the euro-obsessive and glibertarian tendency in UKIPs rank and file, it's no wonder that Farage makes up policy on the fly.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Saul the Apostle
Shipmate
# 13808
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Posted
One thought has also crossed my mind, is the UKIP avalanche in the Euro elections a flash in the pan or a genuine shift in the British political landscape?
Personally, I can't work this out.
I am old enough to remember the ''gang of four'' (Shirley williams etc. ) in the 1980s. Much of the hubris does tend to die out after a while; I really don't know with UKIP and Nigel Farage.
What we do know is Farage has handed over much of the work to trusted deputies, so we'll see less of Nigel on our screens and more from his henchmen.
Saul
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"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
Posts: 1772 | From: unsure | Registered: Jun 2008
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
..who will hopefully bog it up.
I think it is a 'surge' rather than a permanent fixture. I remember the SDP too and also the Greens doing very well in the Euro elections I the last decade only to fall back again (that said, they now have a Westminster MP).
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
One feature of fringe (especially mostly single policy) parties is that if they do well in elections then the major parties take notice. Significant electoral success in local and European elections, and a good share of the vote for a general election, says that a lot of people are sufficiently concerned about a particular issue to vote for someone who is very unlikely to actually represent them (a so-called "wasted vote" ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif) ). When that happened for the Greens the major parties started to include elements of the Green manisfesto into their own manifestos, the electorate could then put a cross next to a party that at least said it was going to enact environmentally friendly policies and also had a good chance of being in a position to actually do something.
Labour and the Tories are already falling over themselves to be seen as "tough on immigration", suggestions of an in/out referendum on Europe are also a similar effect of UKIP success. The election has shown that these are important issues for a large proportion of the electorate (maybe not the most important), and the major parties want to be seen to be listening to the voters. There will now be a flurry of opinion polls so that Labour and Conservative party bean counters can work out whether they will see a net gain or loss of votes (or, more importantly, seats in Westminster as they look at the demographics of key marginals) if they actively adopt central parts of the UKIP manifesto.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
One thought has also crossed my mind, is the UKIP avalanche in the Euro elections a flash in the pan or a genuine shift in the British political landscape?
They came second in the last round of Euro elections back in 2009, so it's not quite a flash in the pan. But that success didn't translate into a single seat in Westminster in 2010, and I don't expect them to do much better in 2015.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
But a 15% vote for UKIP in marginal seats could have quite an impact; and I don't think it is predictable. At first, the predictions were that Tory votes would be lost, but maybe also Labour votes, with the LibDems crushed. So maybe it has become a lot more unpredictable.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Has anyone got a handy graphic as to how it might pan out if the results were repeated at a General Election?
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Like this ?
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Has anyone got a handy graphic as to how it might pan out if the results were repeated at a General Election?
I don't have it to hand, but I recall reading an article that suggested it would translate to a very small (1 or 2 seats) Labour majority. As far as mid-term elections go, that's probably better news for the Conservatives than it is for Labour...
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
Like this ?
Er...no, but entertaining nevertheless!
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Saul the Apostle
Shipmate
# 13808
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Has anyone got a handy graphic as to how it might pan out if the results were repeated at a General Election?
Well,
this might help Matt Black
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
The probability is a Labour majority in 2015 - but as they say a week is a long time in politics and well, a year, is an eternity away
Saul
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"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
Posts: 1772 | From: unsure | Registered: Jun 2008
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