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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: lies on immigration
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
You are trying to teach a legislative drafter about the nature of law. This is fucking hilarious.
I'm a theoretical physicist, I'm pretty authoritative on applied maths, in particular in my area of specialisation. That does not mean that I'm more than an amateur as far as the history, sociology and philosophy of science is concerned, much less does it make me an expert on epistemology.
I don't consider you as particularly authoritative on the nature of the law just because you are busy making some. So far, your comments frankly sound more like that of a typical "Fachidiot". ("Fach" = area of study/work, "idiot" = idiot, combined roughly a "blinkered specialist", though the German is much juicier...)
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
Shrug. Recent years have shown I can't help how witless you are sometimes about the way the world works or how people work (medieval duelling boards and all), so I'm not going to try now.
In fact about 3/4 of your great big ranting posts are telling me what I already know, while the 1/4 are wrong, but I'm really not that interested in spending time unpicking for you where you're right and where you're wrong, or engaging in a discussion about the many compliance measures that are available ranging from law through to culture. I'd much rather discuss these things with my clients, as I do on a regular basis, because in their case it will lead to meaningful decisions.
Including decisions not to make a law because it won't achieve anything.
[ 05. November 2014, 21:28: Message edited by: orfeo ]
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Doublethink (and others)
The study released today studied a group of migrants from the 10 countries that joined the EU in 2004. A few things to note:
Three more countries have joined since then (Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia) and immigration from the first two of those has been well above what was anticipated.
The study considered data upto 2011. That's not unusual, it takes a year or two for the relevant data to become available, and some time to then examine that data.
Is there anything to suggest that Bulgarians are going to be any different from Poles or Czechs? Unless you have very good evidence that Bulgarians are much more likely to be feckless layabouts scrounging from the British state purse than Poles I would expect that the main findings of the study will apply equally to the newer waves of immigrants.
quote:
No questions were asked about how much or what proportion of salary was sent "home" to the person's country of origin. It is unclear whether the figures include Child Benefit paid to a bank account in the country of origin.
I haven't had opportunity to read the report, just the news article on the BBC I linked to. It did seem very clear that the study was somewhat (necessarily) limited. So, they seemed to consider direct taxation and benefits payments and a assessment of how much use of health, education services etc used by immigrants. The study did break down those costs into those that scale by population (eg: schooling which costs more if there are more children) and those that don't (like defence).
The study was clearly stated to relate to financial benefit to the UK Treasury, ie: taxation income. What people chose to do with the rest of their income was not questioned, so there may be subtly different answers in a study of the net impact on the UK economy rather than the UK Treasury. But, a) that would be a much more difficult study, and b) I would be surprised if it made much difference as most of what people earn is spent in that country (rent/mortgage, groceries, local transport, new clothes as needed, local pubs and restaurants etc). And, we all send money abroad (we buy stuff, directly or indirectly, produced overseas, we go overseas on holiday or business etc).
It's bad enough that people are suggesting that we restrict where people live. Imposing restrictions on how people choose to spend their disposable income is even worse.
quote:
The figure for receipt of benefits is bound to be lower in total because these people aren't of pensionable age.
The BBC article did point out that if these immigrants remain in the UK until they receive state pension then the net benefit to the Treasury would be reduced. But, that's a big if when we're talking about what is essentially a migrant workforce travelling to where the work is.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
Ingo, I will say one other thing while I think of it.
I think it's especially bizarre that a German, of all people, would argue that there is a single national culture that is expressed in law.
What exactly are all the Landtage doing then? The State Parliaments? Passing different laws, separately, for different areas of your unified German culture?
[ 05. November 2014, 21:58: Message edited by: orfeo ]
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
I think it's especially bizarre that a German, of all people, would argue that there is a single national culture that is expressed in law.
The only thing bizarre there is that you think that I said or implied this. (Well, of course some of the overall German culture will be expressed in German national law. And some of the regional differences will be expressed in regional law. And the former does not contradict the latter, and both are entirely compatible with what I've said so far. But all that nuance is clearly a bit much for you...)
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
It's the length and density of your posts that is a bit much for me. If I miss any nuance, it's because my eyes have completely glazed over by the time I reach the end.
In short, you are an incredibly boring read.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
my eyes have completely glazed over by the time I reach the end.
Most people are doing well to get half way before their eyes glaze over.
Saying which, I might have missed it as my head fell towards the desktop and I struggled back to being awake. But did Ingo just say that there are regional cultures within Germany? Yet earlier he was denying that Britain is a (to use my phrase) a tepestry of cultures. Is it cultural bias to consider Britain a boring monoculture and Germany a rich collection of cultures?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
my eyes have completely glazed over by the time I reach the end.
Most people are doing well to get half way before their eyes glaze over.
Saying which, I might have missed it as my head fell towards the desktop and I struggled back to being awake. But did Ingo just say that there are regional cultures within Germany? Yet earlier he was denying that Britain is a (to use my phrase) a tepestry of cultures. Is it cultural bias to consider Britain a boring monoculture and Germany a rich collection of cultures?
See, clearly you and I picked up the same impression about the culture of Britain. But apparently we're both wrong to get that idea.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
In short, you are an incredibly boring read.
Around here I cannot suggest that you simply do not read what I write. But you could still refrain from commenting on it, of course. Please, by all means, feel free to do so.
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Yet earlier he was denying that Britain is a (to use my phrase) a tepestry of cultures. Is it cultural bias to consider Britain a boring monoculture and Germany a rich collection of cultures?
Sigh. I did not deny that there are regional cultures in Britain. I denied your idiotic conclusion that therefore there are just many "British cultures" (plural), but no such thing as a "British culture" (singular) that could be discussed on its own terms.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It's the length and density of your posts that is a bit much for me. If I miss any nuance, it's because my eyes have completely glazed over by the time I reach the end.
In short, you are an incredibly boring read.
Oh thank the FSM! Someone else who finds this!
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Might as well ask the bloody cat.
Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It's the length and density of your posts that is a bit much for me. If I miss any nuance, it's because my eyes have completely glazed over by the time I reach the end.
In short, you are an incredibly boring read.
Oh thank the FSM! Someone else who finds this!
Behold, a Shipmate who reads them.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I did not deny that there are regional cultures in Britain. I denied your idiotic conclusion that therefore there are just many "British cultures" (plural), but no such thing as a "British culture" (singular) that could be discussed on its own terms.
OK, so go around Britain and ask 1000 people to describe British culture. What are the chances that even two of them agree on anything beyond a couple of points? Forget about going round Britain, just do the survey in Berkshire, or even down a single street.
Here are some sample questions that might get things rolling:
- What three meals are most British?
I would expect answers to include fish & chips (with or without mushy peas and bread?), steak and kidney pie, bangers and mash, roast beef with yorkshire pudding, lamb and mint sauce, haggis, bacon butties, chip butties, chips and curry sauce, curry ... - What TV programmes are most British?
I would expect answers to include Monty Python, East Enders, Downton Abbey, Strictly Come Dancing, Blue Peter, Doctor Who ... - What are the most significant events in British history?
I would expect answers to include the Battle of Hastings, the Battle of Britain, D-Day, England winning the 1966 World Cup, Waterloo, Dunkirk, the wedding of Charles and Diana, the wedding of William and Kate ...
And, I could go on. Heroes of Britain, significant British inventions, most British sport, most British music ...
Yes, there will be regional variations in answers (much less likely to get haggis as a British dish outside Scotland, for example). But the variations within a street will be almost as great (even if you choose a street that only has "british" residents).
Now obviously if we got to Germany or France and ask the same questions (substituting the appropriate country) the answers will be radically different. So, yes, British culture is distinctive. But that doesn't make it any less of a tapestry of interlinked cultural ideas, such that it's impossible to actually define simply, even at a regional level. Of course, the same would be true of France or Germany, or anywhere else where the population is greater than one.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
In short, you are an incredibly boring read.
Around here I cannot suggest that you simply do not read what I write. But you could still refrain from commenting on it, of course. Please, by all means, feel free to do so.
It would probably be wrong of me to suggest that you never put your fingers to keyboard again. But you could still refrain from writing posts that are so long that they scroll. Please, by all means, feel free to edit yourself.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It would probably be wrong of me to suggest that you never put your fingers to keyboard again. But you could still refrain from writing posts that are so long that they scroll. Please, by all means, feel free to edit yourself.
orfeo, I'm entirely happy with both what I write and the way I write it. If you disagree then all your practices at going and fucking yourself would come in handy.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It would probably be wrong of me to suggest that you never put your fingers to keyboard again. But you could still refrain from writing posts that are so long that they scroll. Please, by all means, feel free to edit yourself.
orfeo, I'm entirely happy with both what I write and the way I write it. If you disagree then all your practices at going and fucking yourself would come in handy.
Do you really write entirely for your own amusement? I haven't learnt to the exalted level you have but I was taught that writing, like speech, is a means of communication.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It would probably be wrong of me to suggest that you never put your fingers to keyboard again. But you could still refrain from writing posts that are so long that they scroll. Please, by all means, feel free to edit yourself.
orfeo, I'm entirely happy with both what I write and the way I write it. If you disagree then all your practices at going and fucking yourself would come in handy.
Do you really write entirely for your own amusement? I haven't learnt to the exalted level you have but I was taught that writing, like speech, is a means of communication.
It's the difference between wanking alone and making love.
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It would probably be wrong of me to suggest that you never put your fingers to keyboard again. But you could still refrain from writing posts that are so long that they scroll. Please, by all means, feel free to edit yourself.
orfeo, I'm entirely happy with both what I write and the way I write it. If you disagree then all your practices at going and fucking yourself would come in handy.
And if you want to have discussions with yourself, you don't need a discussion board for it. Idiot.
You have the nerve to tell me what to do on here, and yet when I reflect this back on you, you tell me to go fuck myself. You are the smartest complete moron I've ever encountered, I'll give you that, but by God you are still a complete moron.
[ 06. November 2014, 11:41: Message edited by: orfeo ]
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
It's the difference between wanking alone and making love.
Where's the bit when he charms us with dinner and flowers, then? Why does it always feel like he's walked in the door and immediately announced that it's time to conjugate? And why is it about as enticing as a grammar lesson?
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
Ahh, wham bam thank you ma'am!
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Why does it always feel like he's walked in the door and immediately announced that it's time to conjugate? And why is it about as enticing as a grammar lesson?
Clearly you never met my Van Halen–inspiring Latin teacher.
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Firenze
Ordinary decent pagan
# 619
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Posted
I read that as 'Van Helsing inspired'; presumably a teacher of undead languages...
Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
What pisses me off, is how people keep making spurious economic arguments regardless of the evidence. Migrationwatch are particularly classic in this regards. Not unlike the government and its drugs policy.
I think this report should be read very, very carefully.
A previous report co-authored by Christian Dustmann claimed that only 13,000 Eastern Europeans would enter the UK each year if Poland, Czech Rep., etc. were admitted to the EU. That report was used by ministers and others to play down fears off mass-immigration from the EU accession states.
Since those estimates have proved to be spectacularly inaccurate, Prof Dustmann has claimed his report was 'misinterpreted'.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Although a report presenting data from what has happened (ie: this one) and one predicting what may happen are different things.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
The numbers may be wrong, the report may have been misinterpreted but has migration from the accession states been a bad thing? I mean, really? How has your life changed for the worse.
It's a bit like "same-sex" marriage weakening the "traditional" variety.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
I think the trouble is that there is a sizeable chunk of the British population which thinks that immigration is a Bad Thing and when the people who assured us that not many would come over announce that actually they miscalculated by a few hundred thousand but, having done their sums again they can reassure us that it's all good, I can see why people might not find it wholly convincing.
It's probably more convincing than the assertion we can withdraw from the EU and negotiate a bi-lateral treaty that gives us all the nice stuff we like and none of the nasty stuff we're not so keen but that's not a terribly high bar. I think the other problem is that in the days of our prosperity people didn't necessarily trust politicians on the subject, but it didn't seem such a big deal. Contrary to the meme about discussion of immigration being verboten by the liberal elite, I have a distinct recollection of the Conservatives campaigning on the issue in the 2005 General Election. Are you thinking what we're thinkng? they asked. Unfortunately the electorate were thinking "piss off, Dracula, coming over here trying to take our boy Tony's job".
Dial forward to after the financial crash, and attitudes became a lot less forgiving. It's all very well banging on about the benefits of immigration, which are real and quantifiable, but realistically most policies come with costs and benefits and it the perception is that the costs are being borne by the locals and the benefits by big business and economic migrants, then you can see that the locals might start getting twitchy. During the 2005 election the Reverend Tone managed to neutralise the subject by making a speech on the subject saying legitimate concerns yadda, yadda, yadda but enough with the demagoguery Michael. It's somewhat difficult to imagine Miliband or Cameron successfully taking on Farage in such terms. As for Clegg, I imagine it would be the Polish Chamber of Commerce's worst nightmare.
I'm not sure what the answer is because until the whole cost of living thing goes away immigrants will be a convenient target for any resentment going round and there isn't an obvious mainstream politician who is trusted on the subject. Our best chance is for little Ed to squeak over the line, with or without the Liberal Democrats. You can imagine the deep enthusiasm with which I typed that last sentence. Second best would be a Conservative majority, preferably under Teresa May who might do to UKIP what Mrs Thatcher did to the NF. What worries me would be to end up with a Government Of All The Tossers with ministerial roles for the likes of some but presumably not all of UKIP, the SNP, the Greens and, if we are really lucky, the Democratic Unionist Party.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Since those estimates have proved to be spectacularly inaccurate, Prof Dustmann has claimed his report was 'misinterpreted'.
Yes, and he states quite clearly in that article exactly what the errors in interpretation were: ignoring the stated assumptions inherent in the estimates, and not waiting the required period of time to get a 10-year average. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. In the world of 15-second soundbites nobody would bother with that kind of information, they'd just go straight for the headline number. Doesn't mean they're right to do so.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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chive
Ship's nude
# 208
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Posted
There is no way of having a reasonable discussion on immigration. People jump to positions too quickly and then generate evidence to back it up. I would suggest a Royal Commission to actually go away, take evidence and then see what conclusions they come to. But then what would I know?
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'Edward was the kind of man who thought there was no such thing as a lesbian, just a woman who hadn't done one-to-one Bible study with him.' Catherine Fox, Love to the Lost
Posts: 3542 | From: the cupboard under the stairs | Registered: May 2001
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
I can't help but think that if Britain withdraws from the EU then it will be *punished*. The same way that we would have punished Scotland had it split off from the UK.
Re SS's point. There are many monday mornings, esp this time of year, when I would be perfectly happy for a fit young Pole to do my job so I could stay in a warm comfy chair watching the birds feed and the clouds pass by.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
WOW? Total silence from shippies about the ECJ ruling on out-of-work benefits for a non-jobseeking migrant in Germany.
Could it be that you're surprised that our Teutonic cousins have been trying to get approval for something approved of by Messrs Cameron and Farage?
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
WOW? Total silence from shippies about the ECJ ruling on out-of-work benefits for a non-jobseeking migrant in Germany.
Could it be that you're surprised that our Teutonic cousins have been trying to get approval for something approved of by Messrs Cameron and Farage?
Or we don't know about it - linky?
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Might as well ask the bloody cat.
Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Further to the above I have read (could have been on the BBC site) that the UK government's proposals go far further than the restrictions Germany has been allowed to put in place.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
Well, they would because at the moment, although the monetary worth is not as great as in Germany, the range of benefits, especially benefits-in-kind, available to the unwaged is greater in the UK than Germany.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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