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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: The Scottish Play
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
Can we start a prediction thread? Winner is s/he who gets closest (to the aggregate difference) to the turnout, yes and no vote.
Prize is a chance to kiss Alex Salmond goodbye (if No wins) or David Cameron (if Yes wins, as he will definitely be resigning).
Here goes:-
Turnout. 82%
Yes. 42%
No. 58%
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Turnout. 73%
Yes. 39%
No. 61%
(And £10 on this thread whooshing to the Circus ![[Biased]](wink.gif) )
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
hosting/
And so it shall be, because that's where this type of thread belongs.
Boogie, you can donate your £10 to the Organ Fund
/hosting
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Chesterbelloc
Tremendous trifler
# 3128
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Posted
Tempting fate, but here goes:
Turnout: 70%
Yes: 42%
No: 58%
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"[A] moral, intellectual, and social step below Mudfrog."
Posts: 4199 | From: Athens Borealis | Registered: Aug 2002
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Deputy Verger
Shipmate
# 15876
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Posted
Huh? Boogie won that one. You owe her!
How about this conundrum:
Vote turnout 66%.
Yes: 50%
No: 50%
Making equal parts yes, no, and don't know/care.
Posts: 475 | From: London | Registered: Sep 2010
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Deputy Verger:
Huh? Boogie won that one. You owe her!
Once it has been decided who the "you" is, she can give her winnings to the Organ Fund in a show of generosity ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
And since I'm here, now, and don't have the faintest idea...
Vote turnout 60.4%.
Yes: 25.7%
No: 74.3%
By the way, how is the winner of this thread going to be determined, tulfes?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Boogie, you can donate your £10 to the Organ Fund.
Done!
![[Cool]](cool.gif)
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Welease Woderwick
Sister Incubus Nightmare
# 10424
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Posted
Much though I long for the resignation of Cameron I rather hope it won't be through this.
Turnout: 62%
Yes: 35%
No: 65%
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I give thanks for unknown blessings already on their way.
Fancy a break in South India?
Accessible Homestay Guesthouse in Central Kerala, contact me for details
What part of Matt. 7:1 don't you understand?
Posts: 48139 | From: 1st on the right, straight on 'til morning | Registered: Sep 2005
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Turn out: 78%
Och ayes: 43.2%
Aye rights*: 53.5%
Spoilt papers: 3.3% (a record).
*A sarcastic variant of "definitely not"
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Piglet
Islander
# 11803
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Posted
Turnout: 71%
Yes: 41%
No: 57%
Spoiled votes: 2%
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I may not be on an island any more, but I'm still an islander.
alto n a soprano who can read music
Posts: 20272 | From: Fredericton, NB, on a rather larger piece of rock | Registered: Sep 2006
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
I think you're all underestimating the turnout. All reputable sources are predicting 80% plus.
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
I think you're all underestimating the turnout. All reputable sources are predicting 80% plus.
Depends how you read it. As a new register has been created purely for the referendum then a high proportion of those on the register will probably vote, as many of those who won't vote won't register either.
On the other hand it could be that fine old Irish principle of "Vote early, vote often".
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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pimple
Ship's Irruption
# 10635
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Posted
Turnout 76%
Yes 43%
No 55%
Spoiled/Lost 2%
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In other words, just because I made it all up, doesn't mean it isn't true (Reginald Hill)
Posts: 8018 | From: Wonderland | Registered: Nov 2005
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Oscar the Grouch
Adopted Cascadian
# 1916
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Posted
Turnout - 69%
Yes - 47.9%
No - 52.1%
(And Alex Salmond doesn't resign, but vows to fight on and force another referendum until he gets the "right" answer)
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Faradiu, dundeibáwa weyu lárigi weyu
Posts: 3871 | From: Gamma Quadrant, just to the left of Galifrey | Registered: Dec 2001
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Jonah the Whale
Ship's pet cetacean
# 1244
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Posted
79.2
48.8
51.1
[ 29. August 2014, 12:50: Message edited by: Jonah the Whale ]
Posts: 2799 | From: Nether Regions | Registered: Aug 2001
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Jack the Lass
Ship's airhead
# 3415
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Posted
Turnout 82%.
Yes 46%
No 54%
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"My body is a temple - it's big and doesn't move." (Jo Brand)
wiblog blipfoto blog
Posts: 5767 | From: the land of the deep-fried Mars Bar | Registered: Oct 2002
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Turnout 62%
Yes 47%
No 51%
Spoiled 2%
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
The result will be declared as percentages of the non spoiled vote.So those who have included a spoiled percentage may wish to repost with straight yes/no percentages.
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Revised without spoilt papers
Turn out: 78%
Och ayes: 44.9%
Aye rights*: 55.1%
*A sarcastic variant of "definitely not"
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
PS turnout predictions are 75% to 80% minimum so those down in the 60's may wish to rethink and repost. Just saying.
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
Oh, and Yes is gaining ground so result may be very close. Reposting acceptable up to 10pm on the 18th.
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
Some bloke in Kent or the like has placed an £800K bet on a No victory. Hope he doesn't want to repost. Too late matey.
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
REVISED PREDICTION
Turnout 84% of those registered
Yes 48% of vote
No 52% of vote
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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Sipech
Shipmate
# 16870
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Posted
Current prediction:
Turnout: 73.3%
Yes: 44.8%
No: 55.2%
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I try to be self-deprecating; I'm just not very good at it.
Twitter: http://twitter.com/TheAlethiophile
Posts: 3791 | From: On the corporate ladder | Registered: Jan 2012
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
Turnout: 76.25%
Yes: 37.4%
No: 62.6%
[ 08. September 2014, 10:42: Message edited by: Anglican't ]
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Albertus
Shipmate
# 13356
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Posted
Turnout 74.8%
Yes 49.7%
No 50.3%
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My beard is a testament to my masculinity and virility, and demonstrates that I am a real man. Trouble is, bits of quiche sometimes get caught in it.
Posts: 6498 | From: Y Sowth | Registered: Jan 2008
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Spawn
Shipmate
# 4867
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Posted
Turnout: 75
Yes: 37
No: 62
Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
My prediction
T: 82%
Y: 45%
N: 55%
And now for the real fun, some maths...
quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
Winner is s/he who gets closest (to the aggregate difference) to the turnout, yes and no vote.
First, it makes sense to consider absolute values of the difference, rather than the difference itself. For example, if the turnout is
T = 85%
then both predictions
T_1 = 80%
and
T_2 = 90%
should be considered equally good or bad. This you can achieve by computing the absolute value
|T - T_1| = |T - T_2| = 5%
But since Yes and No are not independent (Yes = 100% - No, assuming "Invalid" is negligible or not counted), you are in fact double counting. Let's say the results are:
T = 80%, Y = 40%, N = 60%
and the player predicts
T_P = 75%, Y_P = 48%, N_P = 52%
then the differences are
Delta_T = -5%, Delta_Y = -8%, Delta_N = +8%
Note that Delta_Y = -Delta_N. This will always be the case. If you add absolutes, you will hence double count the vote split:
|Delta_T| + |Delta_Y| + |Delta_N| = |Delta_T| + 2 * |Delta_Y| = 21%
If you added without absolute values, it would be even more disastrous, you would flat out eliminate the vote split! I suggest to add only the absolute differences concerning the turnout and the yes vote, so for our example
|Delta_T| + |Delta_Y| = 13%
Finally, as an alternative you may wish to rate negatively larger deviations more than smaller ones. This you can do by using squares of the differences rather than absolute values, as one does when calculating variances of distributions. For example, we might have two players with the following results:
Delta_T1 = -8%, Delta_Y1 = 2%
Delta_T2 = +5%, Delta_Y2 = -5%
If we add absolute differences, then they are equally good
|Delta_T1| + |Delta_Y1| = |Delta_T2| + |Delta_Y2| = 10%
but if we add squares, we penalise the big deviation:
Delta_T1 ^ 2 + Delta_Y1 ^ 2 = 65 %^2
vs.
Delta_T2 ^ 2 + Delta_Y2 ^ 2 = 50 %^2
I think this would be the best solution.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Sipech
Shipmate
# 16870
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Posted
Ingo, while your methodology is sound, did you read what the prize was? You seem a little bit...um.....keen.
quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
Prize is a chance to kiss Alex Salmond goodbye (if No wins) or David Cameron (if Yes wins, as he will definitely be resigning).
Posts: 3791 | From: On the corporate ladder | Registered: Jan 2012
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by TheAlethiophile:
Ingo, while your methodology is sound, did you read what the prize was? You seem a little bit...um.....keen.
quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
Prize is a chance to kiss Alex Salmond goodbye (if No wins) or David Cameron (if Yes wins, as he will definitely be resigning).
Well, I hope the kissing bit was meant metaphorically... Though if it would remove either one of these gentleman from power, I think I would make the sacrifice.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
Turnout: 82%
Yes: 52.1%
No: 47.9%
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Tulfes
Shipmate
# 18000
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Posted
Updated forecast:
Turnout 91%
Yes. 47%
No. 53%
Posts: 175 | Registered: Feb 2014
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
Update to my predictions:
T: 88.0%
Y: 46.5%
N: 53.5%
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Sipech
Shipmate
# 16870
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Posted
My updated prediction:
Turnout: 84%
Yes: 48.7%
No: 51.3%
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I try to be self-deprecating; I'm just not very good at it.
Twitter: http://twitter.com/TheAlethiophile
Posts: 3791 | From: On the corporate ladder | Registered: Jan 2012
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The Rogue
Shipmate
# 2275
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Posted
Turnout 91%
Yes 41%
No 59%
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If everyone starts thinking outside the box does outside the box come back inside?
Posts: 2507 | From: Toton | Registered: Feb 2002
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
Turn out 92%
Aye: 44.6
Naw: 55.4
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Crap spouted by Heavenly Anarchist:
Turnout 79%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Hurrah!
You won
What's the prize??
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
quote:
T: 82%
Y: 45%
N: 55%
Ingo B came closer as he almost got the turnout right, too.
Pucker up, IngoB!
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
And * , for one, would bung £10 into the Organ Fund to see a photo of Ingo B snogging Alex Salmond.
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
Hold your horses peeps, the votes aren'yt all in yet.
The Highland area result isn't yet in, and whilst they don't have enough votes to overturn the NO vote, it may change the percentages...
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Crap spouted by North East Quine:
Ingo B came closer as he almost got the turnout right, too.
Pucker up, IngoB!
* would have been on the money, but * changed my prediction!
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
quote:
Crap spouted by kingsfold:
Hold your horses peeps, the votes aren'yt all in yet.
The Highland area result isn't yet in, and whilst they don't have enough votes to overturn the NO vote, it may change the percentages...
They're in now, not much change in the grand scheme of things ...
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
quote:
posted by Baptist Trainfan:
They're in now, not much change in the grand scheme of things ...
Didn't really expect them to make much change, but * don't know whether that changed who came tops in the prediction stakes...
Final call:
No 55.3%
Yes 44.7%
turnout 84.5%.
(or 55;45;85 if we're running on whole numbers)
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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