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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Greek Election and the Euro: Rematch!
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
lowlands_boy: Of course, the Russians would love to make an alliance with Greece just in case they end up exiting the Euro
That's starting to look like a cold war scenario. But I don't think Greece can count on much financial support from Russia. That country has some problems of its own.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
Yes, I agree, they do.
This article has some interesting thoughts, although is a bit pessimistic I think. (The author is also flogging his new book).
I think in the end, face saving deals will me made as people will think they are better together....
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
It makes a lot of sense, if the Germans won't play ball, for the Greeks to see what they can get out of the Russians.
It makes rather less sense for the EU to be quite as hoity-toity as it is being at the moment as between the Ukraine and Russia. or at least not unless it is prepared to say openly that what we're really interested in is protecting the integrity of the Baltic States and Poland. As between the Ukraine and Russia, it's difficult to avoid reaching two conclusions
1. The position of the border between them is a random accident of history, not a natural frontier either geographically or ethnically. It is not even entirely clear how far a self-aware Ukrainian identity existed before 1918. And
2. As regards corruption, democracy, oligarchs etc. there's little to choose between them.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Yes, I agree, they do.
This article has some interesting thoughts, although is a bit pessimistic I think. (The author is also flogging his new book).
I think in the end, face saving deals will me made as people will think they are better together....
If you don't mind my saying it, that's rather a silly article. It is saying that the problems of the Eurozone are the Germans' fault for being too successful, for doing too much exporting. He wouldn't say that his own country exercise some sort of self-denying export ordinance. Why should he expect anyone else do so?
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
If you don't mind my saying it, that's rather a silly article. It is saying that the problems of the Eurozone are the Germans' fault for being too successful, for doing too much exporting.
No. This is once again one of those situations where finance at the level of a country is different from that of a household. The German policy is that they want to be a net exporter to the rest of the EU. In normal situations this would lead to currencies adjusting to account for this, of course with the Euro there is nothing to adjust. [Furthermore if the Germans position really was 'everyone has to become like them' then it's nonsensical, as everyone in the EU can't simultaneously be a net exporter to the rest of the EU]. Absent floating currencies you would need fiscal transfers (which the debt has the potential to become in all but name).
The flip side of southern european debt is that a large amount of it has financed German economic growth over the last decade. The Troika has chosen to make various demands of the Greeks - though telling them to reduce their defence spending has been conspicuous by its absence - perhaps not surprisingly one of the larger purchases consisted of new German submarines.
quote:
He wouldn't say that his own country exercise some sort of self-denying export ordinance. Why should he expect anyone else do so?
Well, back in the 80s, the Japanese balance of trade was regularly a feature of international diplomacy.
[ 01. February 2015, 19:52: Message edited by: chris stiles ]
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
If you don't mind my saying it, that's rather a silly article. It is saying that the problems of the Eurozone are the Germans' fault for being too successful, for doing too much exporting.
No. This is once again one of those situations where finance at the level of a country is different from that of a household. The German policy is that they want to be a net exporter to the rest of the EU. In normal situations this would lead to currencies adjusting to account for this, of course with the Euro there is nothing to adjust. [Furthermore if the Germans position really was 'everyone has to become like them' then it's nonsensical, as everyone in the EU can't simultaneously be a net exporter to the rest of the EU]. Absent floating currencies you would need fiscal transfers (which the debt has the potential to become in all but name).
The flip side of southern european debt is that a large amount of it has financed German economic growth over the last decade. The Troika has chosen to make various demands of the Greeks - though telling them to reduce their defence spending has been conspicuous by its absence - perhaps not surprisingly one of the larger purchases consisted of new German submarines.
quote:
He wouldn't say that his own country exercise some sort of self-denying export ordinance. Why should he expect anyone else do so?
Well, back in the 80s, the Japanese balance of trade was regularly a feature of international diplomacy.
Yes, that's why I don't think the article is daft. Furthermore, the economic structure of the Euro, going back to its foundations in the ERM (and the relative values of currencies enshrined therein) is designed to facilitate that.
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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marzipan
Shipmate
# 9442
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Posted
Apparently now Greece might be asking for money from some other sources if they can't renegotiate their existing deal: link
Do they really think anyone's going to see them as credit worthy at this point?
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formerly cheesymarzipan.
Now containing 50% less cheese
Posts: 917 | From: nowhere in particular | Registered: May 2005
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
When it comes to the Greek debt/bailout funds its been obvious from before the election where Syriza might look (see my post on 1 February): Russia.
Russia have a problem that even its ultra patriotic population is beginning to tire of the loss of favourite goods due to EU sanctions - most specifically they miss soft fruit, such as peaches, and some dairy products.
Greece, meanwhile, has an abundance of both which they feel they could (should?) be getting better prices for.
The solution being touted around Syntagma Square is that Greek goods could be exchanged for Russian oil and gas: both parties get what they want AND cock a snook at Mrs Merkel.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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