homepage
  roll on christmas  
click here to find out more about ship of fools click here to sign up for the ship of fools newsletter click here to support ship of fools
community the mystery worshipper gadgets for god caption competition foolishness features ship stuff
discussion boards live chat cafe avatars frequently-asked questions the ten commandments gallery private boards register for the boards
 
Ship of Fools


Post new thread  Post a reply
My profile login | | Directory | Search | FAQs | Board home
   - Printer-friendly view Next oldest thread   Next newest thread
» Ship of Fools   »   » Oblivion   » Greece and the Euro (Page 3)

 - Email this page to a friend or enemy.  
Pages in this thread: 1  2  3  4  5  6 
 
Source: (consider it) Thread: Greece and the Euro
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338

 - Posted      Profile for L'organist   Author's homepage   Email L'organist   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
posted by Croesos
quote:
You seem to be confusing a lot of different topics. You start off saying the Greek primary surplus (a measure of government fiscal activity) is false because of cash flows in the general economy (a financial act, not a fiscal one) due to the ECB acting in the way we typically expect central banks to act when faced with bank runs. For the sake of clarity could you make another run at it and try to stick to either fiscal or financial analysis and not try to pass the one off as the other?
Well, that depends: the two have become inextricably linked because the National Bank of Greece hasn't been able to back-up the money it is having to release to retail banks and so the funds that are being pumped in are coming from the ECB.

Yes, I'm well aware that the formula for a country's primary surplus is government spending, minus current tax income, and not including interest paid on bonds (government debt). The situation in Greece now is the same as it ever has been since a brief period under the Colonels junta: figures for tax income are debatable because successive governments have tended to use the figure of what they think they should be collecting, rather than what they really get. Similarly figures for government spending are unreliable because, just like the EU, no one has been able to produce audited accounts for Greek government accounts for years.

Since a true primary surplus would need to exist if the Greek government was going to be able to pump money into its retail banking sector, the ECB has stepped in because they know that the money being printed at the moment is otherwise backed up by nothing.

The Augean Stables simile is spot on.

--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Paul Krugman's latest Greek thoughts This is why I have so much contempt for the IMF: after forcing Greece to adopt policies that have made things much worse, they object to an economically literate Greek government insisting on something else...

[brick wall]

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322

 - Posted      Profile for Enoch   Email Enoch   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
... figures for tax income are debatable because successive governments have tended to use the figure of what they think they should be collecting, rather than what they really get. ...

I'd agree, but I don't think a fiscal economist can - certainly not a UK one. Since the Inland Revenue have over the last few years been aggressively insisting everyone keep their accounts so that they are taxed on a 'bills delivered' or even a 'work in hand', rather than 'cash received' basis, how can anyone official object when the Greek government presents its fiscal income that way?
[Killing me]

--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Paul Krugman's latest Greek thoughts This is why I have so much contempt for the IMF: after forcing Greece to adopt policies that have made things much worse, they object to an economically literate Greek government insisting on something else...

It's the literacy of the people involved that I find a little disturbing.

OK this may be a bit of an adolescent way of thinking, but look at the economic credentials of the negotiators on the European side.

Mario Draghi (President of the ECB): No problem with him, but he doesn't seem to be the one making all the noise.
Christine Lagarde (Managing Director, IMF): A lawyer.
Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission): Qualified as a lawyer but never practised. A career politician.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem (President of the Eurogroup): "Studied agricultural economics at Wageningen University (1985–1991), majoring in business economics, agricultural policy, and social and economic history" according to Wikipedia - a step up from Lagarde and Juncker, but not exactly the same as the macroeconomics of a country suffering from experimental monetary policy.
Angela Merkel (Chancellor of Germany): Has a doctorate in physical chemistry but went into politics instead.
Wolfgang Schäuble (German Finance Minister): Studied law and economics in the sixties but spent his subsequent career in law and politics.
François Hollande (President of France): Graduated from the Ecole nationale d'Administration, which makes him a professional senior civil servant.

Meanwhile on the Greek team, Alexis Tsipras qualified as a civil engineer before going into far-left politics, but the other Greek negotiators whose names I've seen in the media:

Yanis Varoufakis: Professor of Economic Theory, University of Athens
Euclid Tsakalotos: Professor of Economics, University of Athens
Giorgos Stathakis: Professor of Political Economy, University of Crete


Also as an aside, if Greece's problem is decades of political graft and corruption, how does it make sense to undermine the one party qualified to make a break with the past?

[ 26. June 2015, 16:35: Message edited by: Ricardus ]

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

 - Posted      Profile for Crœsos     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Well, that depends: the two have become inextricably linked because the National Bank of Greece hasn't been able to back-up the money it is having to release to retail banks and so the funds that are being pumped in are coming from the ECB.

<snip>

Since a true primary surplus would need to exist if the Greek government was going to be able to pump money into its retail banking sector, the ECB has stepped in because they know that the money being printed at the moment is otherwise backed up by nothing.

It sounds to me like your problem isn't with Greece per se, it's with the ideas of fiat currency, fractional reserve banking, and depositors' insurance. Your criticisms could just as easily apply to any other country that uses these three financial structures.

--------------------
Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
......and yet, the same 'qualified' people claimed at election that they would get rid of Greek debt problems by reducing (or completely ridding) the economy of austerity measures. Maybe they meant that they would get rid of them by not paying them, therefore no need for austerity measures.
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
......and yet, the same 'qualified' people claimed at election that they would get rid of Greek debt problems by reducing (or completely ridding) the economy of austerity measures. Maybe they meant that they would get rid of them by not paying them, therefore no need for austerity measures.

Syriza manifesto.

Their election pledge was to renegotiate, or at least seek to renegotiate, their debt mountain such that they would have the space to reduce austerity measures, bring the economy back into growth, and pay off the debt. And that is what they are trying to do. That is what this standoff is about.

I don't see anything in that manifesto that suggests they thought reducing austerity measures without renegotiation would solve the Greek debt crisis.

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
...seek to renegotiate, their debt mountain such that they would have the space to reduce austerity measures, bring the economy back into growth, and pay off the debt. And that is what they are trying to do. That is what this standoff is about.

This.

The complete lack of sanity in the Troika position is that they make it impossible for Greece to even come close to paying anything towards its debts as has been clearly demonstrated the IMF prescription has made Greece's position much worse.

So minimal rational thinking will lead to one of two conclusions:
Either: The Troika have no idea what they are doing - in which case they should be ignored as much as possible
Or: They do know and they are basically trying to punish Greece (for what, I'm not entirely sure but) they should be ignored as much as possible.

Either way, whilst Greece has some issues and past history etc. etc. there is no real moral equivalency here. And even if there was, it is so long past the point where the vital question is simply "What will work?"

FWIW the answer is not more austerity

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
As this Wall Street journal article points out the debt is not in any way unmanageable for Greece, but rather it is reform that is at the heart of the issue. It also notes that all other countries in the EU have been effected by the global recession and the various property crashes and the debt crises and the abuse of credit and the mismanagement of lending, etc, etc, etc. So it begs the question; why is it that the special case should be made for Greece? Do they really want to face their creditors without the help of a bailout? No - it's mainly silly posturing and political maneuvering. Taking a bailout is hard and has been hard for all those in Europe who had to do it. I very much doubt there has been a single country in the EU that has not felt the pain austerity, but why should Greece be permitted to remain a part of Europe when all of its actions seem to suggest it only wants to be part of it on its terms - and currently those terms seem to be we want the bailout and we don't want to have to make any of the sacrifice that the other 18 members states have made and we'd rather not enact reform?

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Yeah, we've already kicked eighteen cats - why should the nineteenth get off scot free?

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
OK, less flippant response follows. I can't respond to the WSJ article because it's behind a paywall but regarding the rest of your post:

1.) I may be misreading you, but how can you argue that 177% of GDP is manageable when earlier in the thread you seemed prepared to argue that 35% (Ireland) was a sign of wanton profligacy?

2.) I think economists of all persuasions agree that the Greek state had problems that weren't present even in the other troubled nations of the periphery. Therefore, what 'worked' for Spain, Portugal or Ireland won't necessarily work for Greece. The fact that the Greek economy contracted by a quarter would seem to be empirical confirmation of this hypothesis.

3.) Reason for scare quotes above: Syriza's position is that any solution to the debt problem shouldn't fall disproportionately on the shoulders of people who are already poor and vulnerable and who weren't responsible for the crisis. This seems to me just and reasonable. I don't get the impression that the Spanish and Portuguese bailouts have been particularly successful in this regard either.

4.) Syriza never wanted the bailout in the first place. They thought the Greek government should have negotiated directly with its creditors.

5.) More to the point - and this I think gets to the heart of the issue - an overt nationalist like Mr Farage or Ms Sturgeon can talk about 'countries feeling the pain' or 'the Greeks seem to want such and such' but that's not an attitude the EU can take. For a nationalist, the nation-state exists as objectively real moral collective above the level of the individual and therefore what is done by or to part of the collective is necessarily done to the whole - so a crime by some Greeks is necessarily a crime by all Greeks, and a punishment on some Greeks is necessarily a punishment on all Greeks. (Just as a crime by my brain can be punished by a restriction on my bodily freedom.) Socialist movements such as Syriza have traditionally been internationalist because it sees class-distinctions as more important than nation-divisions, and the EU is also supposed to be about transcending nationalist groupings, so there should be lots of common ground between them. For the EU to punish Greek pensioners for the sins of Greek industrial magnates and politicians is a betrayal of its own commitment to internationalism.

[ 27. June 2015, 07:16: Message edited by: Ricardus ]

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
You seem to suggest that because Greece is now some kind of 'internationalist' socialist heaven that it should be allowed to approach its lenders directly when dealing with its debts. If I suspend my disbelief in certain aspects of that, then maybe so; maybe Greece should be allowed to do what no other member state of Europe was permitted to do and go it alone and ignore what it means to be part of Europe. What is the result of that? Greece declares itself bankrupt? It drops out of the Euro? It creates its own currency again only to massively devalue it? It becomes economically isolated? That happened in Europe once before if I recall, and it didn't end well. The nationalism you speak of tends to go hand in glove with difficult economic times. I very much doubt that for any German in Europe right now that this is a thought far from their minds, because essentially there is more to Europe than economics.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
You seem to suggest that because Greece is now some kind of 'internationalist' socialist heaven that it should be allowed to approach its lenders directly when dealing with its debts.

This is conflating several separate arguments, which is probably my fault for cramming too much stuff in a single paragraph. I am saying that both Syriza and the EU supposedly subscribe to an internationalist philosophy and therefore there should be common ground between them, but in practice the EU's way of dealing with Greek is decidedly nationalist.

I am also saying, as a separate and unrelated argument, that Syriza did not want the bailout programme to have started. This is a direct response to your comment that the Greeks seem to want bailouts but not the austerity that goes with it. It is a separate argument to the argument about internationalism.
quote:
If I suspend my disbelief in certain aspects of that, then maybe so; maybe Greece should be allowed to do what no other member state of Europe was permitted to do and go it alone and ignore what it means to be part of Europe. What is the result of that? Greece declares itself bankrupt? It drops out of the Euro? It creates its own currency again only to massively devalue it? It becomes economically isolated? That happened in Europe once before if I recall, and it didn't end well. The nationalism you speak of tends to go hand in glove with difficult economic times.
My point is that it is Angela Merkel and François Hollande and Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Jean-Claude Juncker who are behaving in a nationalist way, and thus violating what it means to be part of Europe.

As for 'what's the alternative', in the short and medium term Syriza want a debt restructure. In the medium and long term Varoufakis has spelt out a fairly detailed proposal of how he thinks the Eurozone should address systemic crises here. It would involve resolving those parts of the euro concept which, as other posters have noted, have no economic foundation or which exist in defiance of economic reality.

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338

 - Posted      Profile for L'organist   Author's homepage   Email L'organist   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
posted by Ricardus
quote:
I think economists of all persuasions agree that the Greek state had problems that weren't present even in the other troubled nations of the periphery. Therefore, what 'worked' for Spain, Portugal or Ireland won't necessarily work for Greece. The fact that the Greek economy contracted by a quarter would seem to be empirical confirmation of this hypothesis
Spot on - in fact a Greek friend (works for a merchant bank over here) said that even trying to get a true picture of the economic problems, or their scale, in Greece was like a blind man trying to read insurance small-print while wearing a blindfold in a completely dark room.

As for what would 'work' for Greece - I suspect nothing. Don't forget, Syriza based a fair bit of its manifesto on re-negotiating its reparations from Germany after WWII - and the arguments used against that by some of the other parties were based on the uneasy political truce reached at the end of the civil war in 1949.

Fact is, Greek society in general (and political society in particular) is still fighting the battles of the 1930s and 40s.

As for whether or not the Greek economy contracted by 25%, its anybody's guess how much it contracted by.

As for the proposed 'solution' of increasing VAT rates on the islands, the only part of the Greek economy that is working at the moment is the tourist industry: increasing VAT on the islands would damage the only part of the Greek economy that is producing much: total madness.

--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Varoufakis' 'proposals' are pie in the sky. The first option he spells out is to take each one case by case. Well yes, you could do that, and you might complete it before the next millennium comes around; meanwhile most of your citizens will have starved to death within the first few years. I guess that would technically be less mouths to feed.

Proposal two involves permitting member states to service their own debts without any interference and without any guarantee from Europe as a whole. Well, that's a lovely idea, but it's not quite how it works and it wasn't the understanding that lenders had when Greece borrowed money. Maybe an idea that has legs for the future in European reform, but I kind of doubt that its workable.

Proposal three is the stuff of fairy tales. Somehow Greece will magic up all the money it doesn't have through all the new jobs it doesn't have in a booming economy it doesn't have.

Proposal four would love us all in the future to consider Greece's debt problems an 'idiosyncratic event'. Well, I'm sure they would.

Meanwhile, the lenders have already stated they are willing to return to the offer made back in 2012 to extend loan maturities, to lower interest rates and to extend the interest rate moratorium all in favour of economic reform (things like, no tax breaks for tourists who buy fancy holiday homes) to enable Greece to function as a sate into the future in a sustainable way. The EU has also committed money - not Greece's money - to ensure that it can service it's debt while it enacts reform and doesn't become a bankrupt failed sate that no one on earth will ever want to invest in. They have decided they don't want that and now they are going to have a referendum on whether or not they want to remain in Europe or become a failed state. If they leave, it won't just be 50 year old pensioners and the non-nationals in holiday villas that will feel the hurt.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338

 - Posted      Profile for L'organist   Author's homepage   Email L'organist   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
THE TALKS ARE OVER.

Alex Tsipras says the offer reached with the EU will be put to a referendum on Sunday 5th July.

The reaction of some EU leaders is that this means Greece is now leaving the Eurozone.

Some in Greece are saying the referendum should not be just about the offer from the EU but should be about EU membership itself: KKE (the Greek communist party) is saying that is what should be on the referendum paper and they're a member of the Syriza coalition.

--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012  |  IP: Logged
Palimpsest
Shipmate
# 16772

 - Posted      Profile for Palimpsest   Email Palimpsest   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
From what's been reported in the US, the Greeks are doing a referendum July 5, but have not gotten an extension for payments due July 1st.

Is there a later development?

No extension on Greek Payments

Posts: 2990 | From: Seattle WA. US | Registered: Nov 2011  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
They get to stay in and blame the nasty ECB for their woes. Tsipras gets to wash his hands above Syntagma Square. And start paying their taxes like grown ups. And stop having the highest teacher-pupil ration in Europe with one of the lowest educational standards. And stop retiring at 62. Like Cyprus did. Or they can collapse in to the Drachma and the arms of that nice Mister Putin.

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
What is the Greek government supposed to do?
The creditors who never should have intervened in the first place want the Greek government to adopt policies which are totally opposite to the mandate they were elected on and are economic madness and will reduce Greece's ability to pay anything back.

And remember Greece has far more to loose - the creditors can easily absorb the loss but if Greece gets a banking crisis they could be in a lot of trouble.

The solution is not easy but it is simple. 1. Relax the austerity so the Greek economy can grow. 2. Put interest payments on hold. 3. The European Central Bank needs to do its job and stand behind the Greek banks. 4. Then worry about a sensible repayment plan.

With this, all sides will be better off. It is a tradegy that the EU has so cornered itself such that the above is (almost certainly) politically impossible.

I admire the Greek government for not giving in to this blackmail.

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
They get to stay in and blame the nasty ECB for their woes. Tsipras gets to wash his hands above Syntagma Square. And start paying their taxes like grown ups. And stop having the highest teacher-pupil ration in Europe with one of the lowest educational standards. And stop retiring at 62. Like Cyprus did. Or they can collapse in to the Drachma and the arms of that nice Mister Putin.

quote:
source
Greece increased to 67 in 2015 from 66 in 2014. Retirement Age Men in Greece averaged 64.29 from 2009 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 67 in 2015 and a record low of 57 in 2009

It's very convenient to paint Greece as unreformed and as Skivers or Shirkers but the Greek people as a whole have really paid the price of austerity. I wouldn't mind so much if it actually worked.

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Varoufakis' 'proposals' are pie in the sky.

So what phrase describes austerity policies that were supposed to reinvigorate the Greek economy and instead caused it to contract by 25%, wasting an enormous amount of German taxpayers' money in the process?

What phrase describes the belief that cutting solidarity payments to the poorest pensioners will somehow resolve the chaotic state of Greek governance and finance?

What phrase describes the total inability of the Eurozone, more than seven years after the crisis first broke, to resolve the structural weaknesses in the euro, such as the consequences of forcing divergent economies onto a single base rate, or the fact that as soon as the crisis hit, most member states (including the euro's golden boys of France and Germany) were obliged to break their Maastricht spending limits?

As for the extraordinarily generous offer which you mention, unless I have missed something all that would do is drag out the current crisis till November. At best it offered a payment holiday, not a debt restructure. Does any economist seriously believe that the Greek economy will be magically turned around in five months, even with the most competent government in the world and an unrestricted mandate?

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
I'm glad they finally got there AFZ, from the same source: 'Greece Retirement Age - Men ... a record low of 57 in 2009'.

The poor of Greece are reaping what their rulers all the way up to Brussels have sown.

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
I'm glad they finally got there AFZ, from the same source: 'Greece Retirement Age - Men ... a record low of 57 in 2009'.

The poor of Greece are reaping what their rulers all the way up to Brussels have sown.

Yes indeed. And, as I said a few posts back there clearly have been issues with Greece's economy and governance but
a) that's not the whole story and if we're apportioning blame, there's plenty to go round
b) It's fairly irrelevant as this point as the far more important question is what will work.

Moreover the key point is - and retirement age is just one measure - Greece has done lots of reforms and heroic austerity.

To expect more of Greece is not only totally unfair, it is also ridiculous.

If you read Mark Blyth's Austerity, the history of a dangerous idea (very good read by the way) he predicted this - in the sense that he said, there is only so much austerity a democracy will actually tolerate.

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Posted by Alien from Zog:
quote:

1. Relax the austerity so the Greek economy can grow. 2. Put interest payments on hold. 3. The European Central Bank needs to do its job and stand behind the Greek banks. 4. Then worry about a sensible repayment plan.

1. There is no economy to grow because currently Greece does not have a properly functioning economy. What they have is a huge uncontrolled black market, non payment of VAT, non payment of tax, tax exclusions for the extremely wealthy buying up houses and huge villas on islands and huge public spending on credit to name but a few of the issues that everyone already involved in talks have already put their finger on as issues that need attention and should not be permitted to continue indefinitely. That is not sustainable for any country. Don't get me wrong, I am not for punishing Greek's poor nor would I have any such desire to see Greece in any sense punished, but they have to move towards a sustainable and responsible economic policy. If they don't then we will all be here again in a decade or less giving them another bailout. If they make reforms they will have an economy, they will be able to move towards a sustainable future, they will have other countries around the world still willing to invest.

2. They were offered reduced interest rates and the moratorium and they rejected it. We know that one of the issues highlighted back in 2012 was regarding one particular island. Did this island have a disproportionate amount of Greece's poor? Did it have people who would be isolated, left starving and without basic services due to austerity measures? Like heck it did - it was an island that operates as a tax haven and playground for the world's super rich.

3. Ummm, that's basically what they are doing. They are provided bailouts to help Greece manage its debt repayments and because the situation has persisted for some time they have set conditions; namely reform. Again, nobody wants to be here again in ten years time;least of all Greece.

4. Manyana, manyana! Come on, you can't be serious! Much as I have a distaste for capitalism, sadly it waits for no man...or country. We can't somehow erase their debts and pay off all their troubles and keep doing it all again every ten years. They can't keep pretending to be a third world country. They have to take responsibility for the management of their own state.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338

 - Posted      Profile for L'organist   Author's homepage   Email L'organist   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
There is no way that Mr Tsipras can deliver agreement on anything proposed by either the IMF, the ECB or the European Council of Ministers. SYRIZA took the majority of the seats in the Greek parliament at the last election on a manifesto of no more austerity measures the would mean cutting benefits or adding to taxes on everyday items; their partners in the coalition government, ANEL, may be poles apart when it comes to political theory but whe you get to the specifics of Greece's economic woes they are of one mind with Syriza - indeed, they're even more extreme, believing that previous governments who reached agreements on finance with the IMF and ECB were acting illegally and that ministers who signed up to such deals should be prosecuted.

There will be a referendum and the vote will go against any 'deal'. Greece is going to default - that's been clear since January.

The reason why Tsipras and Varoufakis are so relaxed about it is that they (and others in the coalition) see this as a golden opportunity for some sort of Year Zero and for the Greek governance and its economy to be re-started.

It may look and sound insane to people outside Greece - and to a fair few inside the country as well - but once you know the scale of the problem when it comes to corruption, it makes sense. No, not just the ramblings of a UK based musician but a thesis proposed years ago by a team investigating fraud at Government level in Greece on behalf of the EU. Like so many things that the Eurocrats find unpalatable, it was suppressed because they didn't approve of what was being discovered and funding was pulled before they could complete their work.

--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Posted by Ricardus:

quote:

So what phrase describes austerity policies that were supposed to reinvigorate the Greek economy and instead caused it to contract by 25%, wasting an enormous amount of German taxpayers' money in the process?

What phrase describes the belief that cutting solidarity payments to the poorest pensioners will somehow resolve the chaotic state of Greek governance and finance?

What phrase describes the total inability of the Eurozone, more than seven years after the crisis first broke, to resolve the structural weaknesses in the euro, such as the consequences of forcing divergent economies onto a single base rate, or the fact that as soon as the crisis hit, most member states (including the euro's golden boys of France and Germany) were obliged to break their Maastricht spending limits?

As for the extraordinarily generous offer which you mention, unless I have missed something all that would do is drag out the current crisis till November. At best it offered a payment holiday, not a debt restructure. Does any economist seriously believe that the Greek economy will be magically turned around in five months, even with the most competent government in the world and an unrestricted mandate?

I don't disagree with you that the whole situation sucks, but it is a situation that has sucked since 2008. Since that time Greece has been given opportunity time and time again to make reforms. They didn't.

Then Tsipras comes along and announces his new reforms that will help everyone out: laid off workers will be re-hired, the minimum wage will rise and public and social spending will see unprecendented rises since levels in 2003. You can see why the lenders and Europe started to shift nervously in their seats and you can see why the man is in the position he is in. Now he can blame it all on Europe and those nasty loan sharks without having to ruffle the feathers of the upper middle class and the super rich and tackle their habit of fakelaki and rousfeti, not to mention the off shore accounts (poor Mr Kantas for example, took so many bribes while in office he can't actually remember them all!). These are not the Greek poor, they are the Greek uber wealthy who through their own corruption and evil are pressing the genuine poor of Greece to take the hit. If Greece chooses to play it this way then that is their choice. I find it despicable and immoral, but corruption is like that, and one thing is certain, it cannot continue.

So lets be clear, Europe is not talking about punishing the poor of Greece. The Greek government may want to play it that way, but it's not what is at stake. They seem to have this stupid idea that they can become the Cayman Islands of Europe, but they want to do it through gross corruption and by punishing the poor and blaming it on bad Europe and nasty lenders. It's nothing more than a political game in which they are happy to gamble away the livelihoods and lives of their poor. It's disgusting.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Fletcher Christian,

No, no, no, no.

1. No one is saying that the Greek economy doesn't have issues and has major problems. But according to the IMF, yes the IMF! Greece currently has a primary cyclically adjusted surplus of 5.2%. Unfortunately the IMF-imposed austerity that was supposed to only minimally harm the economy before leading to growth has caused a contraction of over 20% and massive, massive unemployment. So yes there is much that needs to be done but Greece clearly has capacity to grow - it's biggest problem is the externally imposed austerity.

2. They are not being allowed to not make the payment due this week.

3. Clearly not. If the IMF was acting as lender of last resort there wouldn't be an issue of Greek banks potentially collapsing. This is a political decision.

4. I am totally serious. Simply because if you look at Greek's dept-to-GDP ratio is 2010 and compare it now you see how much the Troika has really helped them. [brick wall]

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Posted by Alien from Zog:
quote:

No one is saying that the Greek economy doesn't have issues and has major problems.

I know that, but the question is why do they not tackle the issues? Why is it that Greece refuses to tackle the issue of non payment of tax, vat and raft of other things? Corruption maybe? Someone is getting a brown envelope they don't want to give up? What is it that seems to have stopped Greece for the last decade to even begin to enact reforms towards being a normal functioning state with a sustainable economy?

quote:

But according to the IMF, yes the IMF! Greece currently has a primary cyclically adjusted surplus of 5.2%.

I know that. there are a number of economists (not least a few in Europe) who think the debt is in fact manageable.

quote:

Unfortunately the IMF-imposed austerity that was supposed to only minimally harm the economy before leading to growth has caused a contraction of over 20% and massive, massive unemployment

The corruption is so rife and the black market so huge and the tax dodging so endemic that its somewhat hard to know the real picture. The austerity required was not to punish, but to force the hand of the Greek government in enacting reform - they haven't.

quote:

So yes there is much that needs to be done but Greece clearly has capacity to grow - it's biggest problem is the externally imposed austerity.

I agree with your former point but strongly disagree with the latter. The biggest problem is corruption and reform. Greece is rewarding its wealthy and punishing its poor and they are doing it on the vote of the poor. Words cannot express my contempt for that.

quote:

They are not being allowed to not make the payment due this week.

Have you been following the talks? Granted, we don't know the details of the deals that were on the table, but they certainly appear to have rejected everything and chosen of their own will not to take an option open to them.

quote:

Clearly not. If the IMF was acting as lender of last resort there wouldn't be an issue of Greek banks potentially collapsing. This is a political decision.

The Greek banks are collapsing because the whole country is about to go into free fall. They have the insane idea that somehow and at sometimes their debts are all going to magically disappear and the lenders aren't going to come knocking. Currently they are only asking for the interest and at reduced rates with no increases. I truly wish I had this option on loans I have.

quote:

I am totally serious. Simply because if you look at Greek's dept-to-GDP ratio is 2010 and compare it now you see how much the Troika has really helped them

Greece took loans and loans accrue interests - that's how loans work. If Greece does not want to reform then sadly they will likely have to face their creditors on their own and without the help of Europe. If that happens Greece will need all our prayers and will likely be the recipients of massive foreign aid for decades to come,

[ 28. June 2015, 15:30: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Aye AFZ. What's to be realistically done? I'm a third way man, the poor are your biggest market, liberate them, empower them WHILST enforcing a long term fiscal policy. The latter is NOT being done. Greek taxation is an absolute bloody shambles. The appeals to democracy are utterly bankrupt: "It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury." (Elmer T. Peterson in The Daily Oklahoman (9 December 1951)).

I have a lurking prejudice that this is ALL Germany's fault, as they have massive previous on this: the pretence of parity of the Ostmark with the Deutschmark, the vastly premature recognition of Slovenia and Croatia.

And I suspect that under a socialist government,
Greece is going to have a yard sale.

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
itsarumdo
Shipmate
# 18174

 - Posted      Profile for itsarumdo     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
It's interesting reading AFZ and Ricardus's posts

This also highlights the fact that The Euro is primarily a political venture rather than an economic one, and whilst Greece is presenting an economic case, Europe (and the ECB is dealing in politics.

--------------------
"Iti sapis potanda tinone" Lycophron

Posts: 994 | From: Planet Zog | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
I don't know Greece well enough but from what I've read Greece have tried to enact reforms. They are clearly collecting some Tax and there are plans on the books for more in this area. The increase in the retirement age is a marker that its simply not true to say nothing has been done.

In terms of austerity as a punishment, I think the Troika do actually believe in the austerity myth but that doesn't change the fact that they are completely wrong about it.

The data also suggests that Greece has been heroic in achieving austerity so it seems to me to be rather churlish to suggest they haven't done enough when the prescription is so deeply flawed to begin with.

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:

The data also suggests that Greece has been heroic in achieving austerity so it seems to me to be rather churlish to suggest they haven't done enough when the prescription is so deeply flawed to begin with.

Yep; they've been truly and amazingly adept at passing the austerity onto the poor.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
quote:

The data also suggests that Greece has been heroic in achieving austerity so it seems to me to be rather churlish to suggest they haven't done enough when the prescription is so deeply flawed to begin with.

Yep; they've been truly and amazingly adept at passing the austerity onto the poor.
That's virtually universal though.

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641

 - Posted      Profile for chris stiles   Email chris stiles   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Yep; they've been truly and amazingly adept at passing the austerity onto the poor.

This isn't particularly insightful or deep. The prescriptions of the troika (cutting social spending, axing departments full of mostly low level civil servants), is obviously going to hit the poor disproportionately.

I think Syriza have been fairly open and vocal about this being an issue.

Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Posted by AFZ:
quote:

That's virtually universal though.

It is, but in Greece it all falls solely on the poor because they are doing nothing to tax the rich, look for vat from big business and doing nothing to halt the march of the black market and those who have vast wealth who would use Greece as a haven and a playground. It suits Greece to do nothing and punish their own poor and blame someone else.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757

 - Posted      Profile for Ricardus   Author's homepage   Email Ricardus   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:

I don't disagree with you that the whole situation sucks, but it is a situation that has sucked since 2008. Since that time Greece has been given opportunity time and time again to make reforms. They didn't.

But I don't really see the link between austerity policies and tackling endemic corruption. And that doesn't seem to be the line the Troika are taking.

Syriza have done more than the last lot to tackle tax evasion. They are actually making some use of the Lagarde List, unlike whichever lot who refused to look at it on the high-minded grounds that it was obtained by theft and arrested the journalist who published it. And it's kind of hard to argue simultaneously that they should be doing more to collect taxes and that they should pare the civil service, including the tax office, down to the bone.

Having said that, if the Troika's argument was that Greece can't have any more money because Syriza should be coming down harder than they are on tax evasion, my paean of self-righteousness would probably be more muted. 'Doing better than the last lot' isn't a very high standard. However - unless I've missed something - that is not what the Troika are saying; they are saying that Greece can't have any money unless they raise VAT and cut pensions. Which seem to me irrelevant to the roots of the Greek malaise. (In fact I have a vague recollection that Syriza's original proposals did include increasing revenue by cracking down on tax evasion and the Troika rejected it because they didn't think Syriza would be able to - I might have garbled that though.)

In short: I agree with you 100% that Greece needs deep and intensive reforms; I just don't see that it needs these reforms.

(Bien-pensant liberals have always complained that the IMF thinks every single problem in the world, no matter what the circumstances, can be cured by market liberalisation, privatisation, cuts to public spending, and keeping the Reds out. It looks like they are right ...)

[ 28. June 2015, 21:39: Message edited by: Ricardus ]

--------------------
Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

 - Posted      Profile for alienfromzog   Email alienfromzog   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
In short: I agree with you 100% that Greece needs deep and intensive reforms; I just don't see that it needs these reforms.

(Bien-pensant liberals have always complained that the IMF thinks every single problem in the world, no matter what the circumstances, can be cured by market liberalisation, privatisation, cuts to public spending, and keeping the Reds out. It looks like they are right ...)

I was a little remiss above - austerity always falls most on the most vulnerable but in this specific case is was prescribed this way. Calling that Greek incompetence is simply misleading.

Precisely and when austerity makes things worse, the IMF prescribes more austerity. They have significant form in this regard.

The argument that Greece is to blame for Greece's current malaise is deeply flawed at best, but even if it wasn't, the fact that the outside powers have made things so much worse makes we intensely sympathetic to one side rather than the other.

I think the Greek government is actually being quite smart by calling a referendum; The IMF has a lot of form at over-riding democracy (especially in South America) but the EU allegedly is built on an absolute belief in defending it, so the EU is being hoisted on their on petard, and they will be shown up for what they are if the Greek people vote no.

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

 - Posted      Profile for orfeo   Author's homepage   Email orfeo   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
So it begs the question; why is it that the special case should be made for Greece?

Greece shouldn't be a special case.

But if you rip off 20 people and only 1 of them decides to take you to court, that's the one that gets their money back. If you slap 20 people across the face and only 1 of you slaps you back, that doesn't mean that slapping the other 19 people was okay.

It's not about pleading a special case. It's about saying "we think your policies are wrong". If other countries thought those policies were okay, then fine and dandy, the can live with them. If other countries DID think those policies were wrong but felt powerless to say so, then that's unconscionable bullying.

It's not as if Greece objecting is without precedent. First off there's Iceland, which didn't make paying back its creditors a priority. Then there's Malaysia back in the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which refused the IMF's prescriptions and went its own way.

--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
itsarumdo
Shipmate
# 18174

 - Posted      Profile for itsarumdo     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
In short: I agree with you 100% that Greece needs deep and intensive reforms; I just don't see that it needs these reforms.

(Bien-pensant liberals have always complained that the IMF thinks every single problem in the world, no matter what the circumstances, can be cured by market liberalisation, privatisation, cuts to public spending, and keeping the Reds out. It looks like they are right ...)

I was a little remiss above - austerity always falls most on the most vulnerable but in this specific case is was prescribed this way. Calling that Greek incompetence is simply misleading.

Precisely and when austerity makes things worse, the IMF prescribes more austerity. They have significant form in this regard.

The argument that Greece is to blame for Greece's current malaise is deeply flawed at best, but even if it wasn't, the fact that the outside powers have made things so much worse makes we intensely sympathetic to one side rather than the other.

I think the Greek government is actually being quite smart by calling a referendum; The IMF has a lot of form at over-riding democracy (especially in South America) but the EU allegedly is built on an absolute belief in defending it, so the EU is being hoisted on their on petard, and they will be shown up for what they are if the Greek people vote no.

AFZ

I was campaigning against IMF excess in this regard back in the 1980's. Then (I'm sure not because of my efforts) eased back on austerity measures because (?) they realised they were destroying economies rather than building them. Which is one reason I find all this a bit strange - and as you say - a case of bullying. It looks more and more like everyone is frightened that the genie will be let out of the bottle. World currencies have had no basis since the Gold standard was dropped, and until a replacement is found there is a lot of bluster going on. It's not about Greece - it's about preserving some myths, which if everyone stopped believing they would see a naked emperor

--------------------
"Iti sapis potanda tinone" Lycophron

Posts: 994 | From: Planet Zog | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
This nicely swirling nebula of greys has to get black and white. Iceland and Malaysia don't count. Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy are the dominoes lined up after Greece. Greece gets NO mercy. Or sympathy from the other bullied, let alone the bullies. Only if she wins. Which is a childish fantasy.

We are addicted to debt. Treasuries wave a bit of paper about and declare its worth a billion, who wants a part of it at X%, we'll justify its existence at 1+n (where n is at best a gnat's whisker above 0 and can't be, what, above 0.1666?) x X% from taxation. That's on a good day. Greece still can't do that. A Greek referendum affects that HOW?

The troika are now playing hard ball. They will not blink. Merkel is preparing to wash her hands in public. 'Democratically'.

We theoretically non-economic liberals can wring our hands all we like. How can we subvert Babylon's rapacity? This is economic warfare. The enemy's casualties are ... irrelevant. His lookout.

Syntagma Square soup kitchen anyone?

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618

 - Posted      Profile for betjemaniac     Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
did anyone hear the Syriza MEP on the Today Programme this morning upping the stakes again?

I'm sure none of this will be news to those on here who've been following the story closely, but it was still alarming to see it spelled out in as many words (assuming I heard correctly):

- as far as they're concerned it's NOT a referendum on whether Greece should be in the Euro or not
- in the event of a Yes vote the proposals on the table will be implemented
- in the event of a Yes vote it won't be Syriza doing the implementing because they will have been rejected and will go

so they've actually just turned it into a confidence vote in the government (where No is the right answer).

I'll take nothing away from their skill as politicians - this is going to be a head on collision between the Greeks' love of the Euro and their massive support for the current government.

Anyone care to put their cards on the table and call which way this is going to go?

[ 29. June 2015, 08:41: Message edited by: betjemaniac ]

--------------------
And is it true? For if it is....

Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013  |  IP: Logged
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

 - Posted      Profile for mr cheesy   Email mr cheesy   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
On a certain level, I think this is about who will be blamed for the (apparently) inevitable mess in Greece. Voting "No" will not suddenly mean that the debt will disappear or that hard times are avoided. I am no expert, but it seems to me that it is highly likely that a no vote would lead to a Greek exit and harder times in Greece outside of the Eurozone.

But the trouble is that accepting the conditions with a "Yes" do not seem to promise that the problems will go either. It is certainly true that under the conditions, life will become even more difficult in Greece, and without economic growth I cannot see how anyone is expecting the Greek economy to dig itself out of the mess.

To the Germans, it looks like they are paying either way, and that the Greeks are not prepared to make changes in their lifestyles needed to develop a sustainable economy - and that ultimately they have been living off German assistance for a very long time.

The perfect storm would be if Greece becomes a total basketcase - either within the Eurozone or with a totally devalued currency outside of it - and at the same time is forced to cope with a massive increase in immigrants from N Africa and the East.

The problem is that the EU is not designed to face this kind of problem - there is not enough central control to take over the organisation of Greece and yet too much to see a way to let Greece go alone. Allowing it to stay looks bad, but forcing it to leave looks worse - when other economies, notably Cyprus, are in a pretty bad state too. Only a couple of notches above are Spain, Italy etc.

My guess is that we have gone past the point of no return and that all bets are off with where this will end up.

--------------------
arse

Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497

 - Posted      Profile for lowlands_boy   Email lowlands_boy   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Well, ignoring the referendum discussion, it's already gone the way of the Greek banks being closed all this week (and the stock exchange for at least today), with capital controls to the tune of a maximum 60 euro withdrawl from cash machines per card per day.

So I think insolvency is here.

I would still (just about) guess that there can be some accomodation made to keep the Greeks in the Euro and the EU, principally because of the threat of them taking up with Putin.

It is all just a farce really though isn't it. Sensible solutions are available if everyone can just stop waving their dicks around (metaphorically!).

--------------------
I thought I should update my signature line....

Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
it's ...

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

 - Posted      Profile for mr cheesy   Email mr cheesy   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
What sensible solutions, lowlands_boy?

--------------------
arse

Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
And Putin's going to use Piraeus as a naval base? Biiiig deal. He can help with the refugees then.

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

 - Posted      Profile for mr cheesy   Email mr cheesy   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
I don't see what Russia gains from investing in Greece. I'd bet that they're interested in talking to keep the EU rattled, but they're more canny with their money than throwing it something with very limited returns.

--------------------
arse

Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Martin60
Shipmate
# 368

 - Posted      Profile for Martin60   Email Martin60   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Absolutely mr cheesy. He'll send a gunboat tho'. The Rouble's stronger than the Drachma after all.

--------------------
Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

 - Posted      Profile for fletcher christian   Email fletcher christian   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
Posted by Ricardus:
quote:

But I don't really see the link between austerity policies and tackling endemic corruption. And that doesn't seem to be the line the Troika are taking.

Syriza have done more than the last lot to tackle tax evasion. They are actually making some use of the Lagarde List, unlike whichever lot who refused to look at it on the high-minded grounds that it was obtained by theft and arrested the journalist who published it. And it's kind of hard to argue simultaneously that they should be doing more to collect taxes and that they should pare the civil service, including the tax office, down to the bone.

I guess I keep looking at it through the lens of my own experience in Ireland. We had a problem with corruption. We had a truly crazy amount of civil servants, all so that we could say people had employment and the government had created jobs and we did it all on credit. It amounted to nothing more than jobs for the boys. We had unchecked bonuses, unregulated banks and industry, tax cuts galore for the wealthy. I could go on and on and on. The government made appeals too nationalism, the importance of preserving our sovereignty, xenophobia about Germany wanting to dominate Europe again and how Europe was a big bully. The told us they would create jobs, they would tackle the tax issue, they would regulate the banks and all manner of promises to stay in power; but they did nothing. Then, as Europe and the IMF started to ratchet up the pressure, we began to realise that the alternative to not taking the bailout and enacting reform wasn't really all that great. We had essentially been a bankrupt country before back in the 80's - we knew only too well what it meant. The world has changed since the 80's and its capitalism is a lot less forgiving now than it was then. We voted in a new party and got with the programme. It is far from perfect and there are still issues and the poor and the wealthy have both taken the hit here, but we are getting somewhere. The alternative was just too horrible to contemplate and the attachment to being 'European' and part of a larger is strong. We also had the added benefit that we tend to have referendums for everything. We have referendums on whether the Taoiseach can wipe his own ass. The result of that was that we have had referendums on the whole processes of Europe and how it is governed leading to the rather famous moment when we rejected one of them (the Lisbon Treaty); so we know that we have bought into something to which we agreed the terms.

If we had not had that outside pressure and the variance of opinion around all the events at our disposal, I think we probably would have become a bankrupt country and descended into the same chaotic mess of corruption and black market economies that we saw signs of before. The first five years here were very, very tough - on everyone; but now we are seeing the fruits of the labours. We no longer have the hugely unwieldily civil servant workers operating on credit, we no longer have the same recklessness in the banks, or the insane house prices, or the vast tax breaks for the super rich. There is a hell of way to go and it's not perfect by any means, but the tackling of corruption in the areas of tax are showing enormous rewards here. It has not been easy and there are problems with tackling poverty, but the alternative was just too horrific to contemplate.

Posted by Orfeo:
quote:

It's not about pleading a special case. It's about saying "we think your policies are wrong". If other countries thought those policies were okay, then fine and dandy, the can live with them. If other countries DID think those policies were wrong but felt powerless to say so, then that's unconscionable bullying.

Did they not sign up to Europe? Did someone force their hand in joining? Do they not have any representation in European parliament?

Posted by Martin:
quote:

We are addicted to debt

You got it in one.

I'm not for defending Europe as a perfect institution - it's not, but I do like its ideals and what it represents and I do think that is worth preserving. I think they also know that the alternative for Greece has a strong likelihood of being very, very bad for Greece. I'm not for punishing Greece either; in fact I feel deeply, deeply sorry for them. I know from experience in Ireland of the pressure brought to bear from all angles and from those who for whatever reason would like to see either the Euro collapse or the whole European ideal collapse. I know the confusion that causes and the straw man arguments and the unsettling nature of it all. When it all actually happened it was fairly smooth and there have been times since when I have positively rejoiced at the tackling of corruption. All the doom mongerers were proved wrong and it is painfully apparent now that we would truly have been up shit creek without a paddle and nobody in the world would have given a toss or come to our aid because the global economies primary and sole aim is in making money.

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497

 - Posted      Profile for lowlands_boy   Email lowlands_boy   Send new private message       Edit/delete post   Reply with quote 
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
What sensible solutions, lowlands_boy?

Well, I think a number of them have been highlited in this thread, by other posters who probably know more about it than me.

As some have pointed out, the can has been getting kicked down the road in Greece's case for quite a while, but the most immediate sabre rattling has been over the relatively paltry repayment due to the IMF of less than 2 billion euro, and more to the point, whether they could be lent more money to make that repayment.

It seems to be (as a computer programmer, rather than an economist), that once you are arguing over borrowing more money to repay what you already owe, it's all gone rather wrong. Of course, we in the UK refinance our own debts all the time as government bonds mature, but we have inflation to erode them, and have our own currency that we can at least theoretically impact the value of.

It seems to me that less austerity could lead to more economic growth (as argued by others on this thread), and that would lead to more ability by Greece to repay. That seems to have been offered by the Greeks relatively recently, when everyone ended up arguing about further austerity to the tune of just 0.5% of Greek GDP.

So all these issues seem to arise as short term disputes when it's time to kick the can again, with no long term view of what should happen, and how Greece could/should fit in to the long term vision of what the EU and the Euro are about.

Now, in the longer term, Greece needs to decide whether they want to be in the EU and the Euro or not. Here in the UK we are supposed to be getting offered that choice in a couple of years time. I'll be voting to stay in the EU then as the benefits are clear enough to me.

But what do the Greeks think? Is someone able to clearly articulate to them why they should stay or go? More fundamentally, what has actually changed for them since they joined? Do they really have a monster "black economy" as L'Organist's friend has alluded to?

How has the actual man on the street been affected? If they can't discern anything positive after all this time that's quite telling. What do they actually want from their lives, and can the EU and the Euro contribute towards that? That's the sort of debate we are supposed to be having, and it seems that the "home of democracy" should be able to have it to.

Is anyone in Greece willing and able to say "OK, it's a big mess but if we want it to better, we need to do X, Y and Z" ? If there was, then they might actually be able to invite in some outside help to achieve it. You know, genuine co-operation. There seemed to be plenty of outside help on offer when they wanted to join the Euro didn't there?

So, I think a bit less short termism and a bit more long termism would help, with some clear vision of what it's all about. I might have missed Merkel or someone else of stature giving a rousing speech about why all this is good for Greece, but if not, then that's quite telling.

--------------------
I thought I should update my signature line....

Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged



Pages in this thread: 1  2  3  4  5  6 
 
Post new thread  Post a reply Close thread   Feature thread   Move thread   Delete thread Next oldest thread   Next newest thread
 - Printer-friendly view
Go to:

Contact us | Ship of Fools | Privacy statement

© Ship of Fools 2016

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM 6.5.0

 
follow ship of fools on twitter
buy your ship of fools postcards
sip of fools mugs from your favourite nautical website
 
 
  ship of fools