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Source: (consider it) Thread: The future of socialism in the UK
lowlands_boy
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Well, away from Franco and chums and back on the "future of socialism in the UK", the final televised hustings for the Labour leadership contenders were last night.

Corbyn still seems to be the runaway favourite, securing 80% in a post debate opinion poll by Sky TV.

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Touchstone
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I've just cast my vote (not for JC) and I know several people who've also not voted for him. None of us has featured in any poll. If opinion polls were accurate there would be a gang of blokes building Stonehenge in the garden of No.10.

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Heavenly Anarchist
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I voted for YC, then AB. I have friends who have voted YC or JC but none of them appear to have voted AB first.

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I've just cast my vote (not for JC) and I know several people who've also not voted for him. None of us has featured in any poll. If opinion polls were accurate there would be a gang of blokes building Stonehenge in the garden of No.10.

Well, I suppose it's largely the same demographic likely to be shy tories and shy kendalites.

On the other hand, my own anecdata suggest that Corbyn will win - me, my Dad, my sister (all new signups as either members or supporters) and the vast majority of Labour folk I know are voting Corbyn. A small number are voting Cooper, but I concur that I don't think many are putting Burnham as their first choice. Now that would be hilarious - if Corbyn wins because Burnham goes out early and transfers just enough votes to push Corbyn over the line.

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Doublethink.
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Burnham's ability to change his mind/policies/principles every five seconds is hurting his chances badly on both the left and the right of the party I think.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
On the other hand, my own anecdata suggest that Corbyn will win - me, my Dad, my sister (all new signups as either members or supporters) and the vast majority of Labour folk I know are voting Corbyn.

Out of interest, having signed up do you intend to do any more for the party by way of campaigning or canvassing? I ask because I wonder how many of the new members will do the hard work of trying to selling Jeremy Corbyn on the door step.
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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Out of interest, having signed up do you intend to do any more for the party by way of campaigning or canvassing? I ask because I wonder how many of the new members will do the hard work of trying to selling Jeremy Corbyn on the door step.

I'll do what I can but doorstep campaigning is a bit of a non-starter out here.
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Ricardus
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Does doorstep campaigning still happen anywhere? I understood that these days it's mostly to turn people who've expressed interest into solid votes, rather than cold-selling (as it were) - but that's based on an article I read a while ago, not on personal experience.

(No-one has ever knocked on our door to solicit our vote ever.)

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Bibliophile
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Does doorstep campaigning still happen anywhere? I understood that these days it's mostly to turn people who've expressed interest into solid votes, rather than cold-selling (as it were) - but that's based on an article I read a while ago, not on personal experience.

(No-one has ever knocked on our door to solicit our vote ever.)

Yes it happens in lots of places and I'm surprised it doesn't happen in your area. I regularly get candidates and canvassers on the door at election time. Doorstep knocking it central to how elections are done in the UK. How do you think political parties get information for their databases on how people vote? They knock on people's doors and ask them.

Incidentally this is a lesson that US politicians could well learn. Research in the States has shown that while candidates often spend the bulk of their huge budgets on TV ads that doorstep knocking is actually a much more cost effective way of boosting their vote.

I'm curious to know why Arethosemyfeet says doorstep knocking is a non-starter in his area?

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Anglican't
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Yes, door-to-door stuff does happen a lot but I think whether you've seen it may all depend on where you live (as parties have fewer volunteers these days they have to target resources where they're most likely to be effective). Also telephone canvassing is becoming more popular, I think, as it enables you to reach a lot of people without trudging up their garden paths.

My instinct is that a lot of people have signed up for Jeremy Corbyn, will vote for him, but then won't be around when the telephoning / leaflet delivering / canvassing starts with the hard work of selling Corbyn on the door step. But, hey, I could be wrong and they might all be in for the long haul.

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Curiosity killed ...

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I have come across door knocking in my area, but I'm not surprised that Arethesemyfeet, from his location, doesn't see it. It's a slightly different prospect knocking door to door down streets, not so easy in spread out rural areas.

When I lived in a rural community of 120 people spread across farming country I never saw door to door knocking either. Then the politicians set up stall in the local town on market day.

Other times I've seen the politicians try to catch parents at the school gates (it's how I met one of our local guys, cycling past him into school).

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Arethosemyfeet
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Our island has around 500 registered voters spread across 30 square miles. A more efficient use of time would be discussing politics with people I see anyway, either in person or online. Oddly, I think, canvassing works better in an anonymous situation. When you already know a lot of the folk it can become tangled in other relationships and I don't think that's a good thing.

I suspect that it is true that a lot of the new sign ups won't be particularly active, but it's worth remembering that a lot of long-time Labour members also support Corbyn, and in any party not all members are activists.

[ 06. September 2015, 13:43: Message edited by: Arethosemyfeet ]

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leo
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
My instinct is that a lot of people have signed up for Jeremy Corbyn, will vote for him, but then won't be around when the telephoning / leaflet delivering / canvassing starts with the hard work of selling Corbyn on the door step. But, hey, I could be wrong and they might all be in for the long haul.

I might. I resigned from Labour Party membership when it got rid of clause 4. Before that, I did a lot of door to door work - seeing it as a 'witness' for kingdom values.

Now that there's a chance of something akin to clause 4 returning, I might resume my commitment.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Yes, door-to-door stuff does happen a lot but I think whether you've seen it may all depend on where you live (as parties have fewer volunteers these days they have to target resources where they're most likely to be effective).

I suspect the lack of canvassing here may not be unconnected both to the obscenely large Labour majorities and to the obscenely low turnouts in this part of the world.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Gwai
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Is there no hope then that get-out-the-vote campaigns would be worth doing then?

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Curiosity killed ...

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38 Degrees had a campaign on Join the Vote in April before the General Election with mixed results. Voter turnout in the 2015 general election was 66.1% compared to 65.1% in 2010.

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
I might. I resigned from Labour Party membership when it got rid of clause 4. Before that, I did a lot of door to door work - seeing it as a 'witness' for kingdom values.

Now that there's a chance of something akin to clause 4 returning, I might resume my commitment.

Sorry Leo. I was minded to sit on my hands, but I can't let that pass. What on earth is the connection between clause 4 and kingdom values?

If someone were to say that they campaigned for flat rate taxation or a leave vote in the EU referendum because they saw it as witnessing to kingdom values, they would rightly be mocked back to the local party office. IMHO the same goes for clause 4. There is no difference.

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Doublethink.
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Here are the two versions:

http://www.labourcounts.com/oldclausefour.htm

Personally, I think the new one is better if taken at face value - but they are both freighted with subtext.

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Touchstone
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I suspect that the three quid brigade's enthusiasm for canvassing may well depend on where they live. In Old Labour heartlands (Northern Cities, the Welsh valleys, inner London), representatives of a Corbyn-lead Labour Party may well be invited in for a drink. If they doorstep floating voters in Basildon or St.Ives the reception will be somewhat less effusive.

I stand by my prediction earlier in this thread that if JC is Labour leader at the next general election (and does anyone think that's likely, I mean seriously?), then many sitting Labour MPs will be returned with increased majorities but more marginals will be lost.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Is there no hope then that get-out-the-vote campaigns would be worth doing then?

Well I eat my words. Having checked the statistics, it seems the turnout this time round matched the national average. Which means it has almost doubled from 2005 when it was 37.5%.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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leo
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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
I might. I resigned from Labour Party membership when it got rid of clause 4. Before that, I did a lot of door to door work - seeing it as a 'witness' for kingdom values.

Now that there's a chance of something akin to clause 4 returning, I might resume my commitment.

Sorry Leo. I was minded to sit on my hands, but I can't let that pass. What on earth is the connection between clause 4 and kingdom values?

If someone were to say that they campaigned for flat rate taxation or a leave vote in the EU referendum because they saw it as witnessing to kingdom values, they would rightly be mocked back to the local party office. IMHO the same goes for clause 4. There is no difference.

I did not say that Clause 4 was a kingdom value but that canvassing was a witness to such values - it would take a long study of Isaiah to detail them but disarmament, equalities, elimination of poverty and hunger, righting injutsice will do for starters.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
I did not say that Clause 4 was a kingdom value but that canvassing was a witness to such values - it would take a long study of Isaiah to detail them but disarmament, equalities, elimination of poverty and hunger, righting injutsice will do for starters.

That sums up the historical problem in the Labour Party. Some people were and still are so preoccupied with means that they have lost sight of the objectives. There's plenty of room for arguing that all those things which you mention, and more besides, aren't dependent on the existence and implementation of Clause 4 (or an equivalent). Clause 4 might have given a doctrinal basis for all those things but nothing more than that, and another doctrinal basis could have done just as well. Instead we got Mandelson and Blair [Frown]

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leo
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But common ownership is the key to Claise 4 - andf the practice of the early chburch.

For how i see socialism reflecting kingdom values.

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Bibliophile
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At first when it started to look like Corbyn might win there was talk from some people on the Bairite wing of the Labour Party about launching an immediate leadership coup against him. That talk rapidly faded. Then there was talk of ptting Corbyn 'on notice' that he had effectively 18 months notice to prove himself before he might be challenged. That talk has also faded. The latest idea was to reintroduce the Parliamentary Shadow Cabinet elections that Labour had until 2011. The idea being it would be a way for the Parliamentary Labour Party to put limits on Corbyn's power. Now it seems that idea is off the cards as well

quote:
In the end, none of those in favour of elections laid a motion, meaning there will be not be a vote at next week’s meeting. It will be the first to be chaired by whoever is selected as the party’s new leader on Saturday.

It is the latest sign that opponents of Corbyn have all but given up on mounting any immediate challenge to his authority if he is elected leader.

MPs from the modernising [i.e. Blairite] wing of the party, including Chuka Umunna and Tristram Hunt, have called on colleagues to accept the result and embrace unity if Corbyn wins.

The rival leadership campaigns have all ruled out legal attempts to challenge the results of the contest if they lose.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/07/jeremy-corbyns-critics-back-away-from-bid-to-elect-shadow-cabinet

Some people had speculated that Corbyn might have ahd quite a bit of trouble from backbenchers from the right of the party. However it looks to me as though the Blairites are in a full speed retreat even before the votes are counted. I suspect that they're doing this indicates they think he's not just going to win but win with a big majority

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Touchstone
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The day after Corbyn is elected (and I still don't accept that it's a done deal), the right wing media will open the trapdoor of the massive silo of stinking ordure that is currently hanging over his head. (They're holding fire at the moment because they want him to win.) The shitstorm will not stop or even abate for the next 4 years and 9 months, or until JC steps down for the good of his party and his own sanity.

After a year or two of this, and once Labour's poll ratings are firmly camped below 20%, the Blairites won't need to get any blood on their hands. Corbyn will have to quit long before the next election.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
The day after Corbyn is elected (and I still don't accept that it's a done deal), the right wing media will open the trapdoor of the massive silo of stinking ordure that is currently hanging over his head. (They're holding fire at the moment because they want him to win.) The shitstorm will not stop or even abate for the next 4 years and 9 months, or until JC steps down for the good of his party and his own sanity.

After a year or two of this, and once Labour's poll ratings are firmly camped below 20%, the Blairites won't need to get any blood on their hands. Corbyn will have to quit long before the next election.

I may agree with the first part of your analysis (though not the stepping down bit), but the second part doesn't necessarily follow.

Remember, Corbyn is not supposed to win. And yet, here he is, the undisputed front-runner. He's supposed to be unpopular, stuck in the eighties, a dinosaur, attached to all manner of unpopular causes, and, and.

The Right Wing Media will undoubtedly have a field day/week/month/year. Yet a few well-timed questions across the dispatch box, skewering the vacuous PR machine that is Cameron, public speeches on YouTube that the media can't skew, interviews where the public get to hear his unfiltered words - all of which he's doing now - could change the game. The more hysterical the Mail gets, the less effective it becomes. Even moderate Tory voters will suffer cognitive dissonance and start to question their usual mouthpieces. No one but the rabid right takes their news from Fox, and they're not going to vote for the Other Guy (or Gal) anyway.

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Touchstone
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You know, I'd love to believe that. But Corbyn will be driving along the edge of a cliff for 4 years and sooner or later something will happen (it may be something apparently quite trivial) that'll cause the wheels to come off and send him crashing over.

I also still firmly believe that the floating voters in English marginals who decide general elections are not going to buy into the JC project. I'm afraid theses people want to see their own economic prosperity safeguarded, first and foremost.

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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Arethosemyfeet
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Whilst floating voters in English marginals have decided recent elections, it's pretty widely acknowledged that if Corbyn wins the leadership it's because he has changed the game. Corbyn doesn't need to target tories to win a majority. The tory vote was such a small proportion of the electorate that he could win without taking a single vote from them. Even if he just piles up votes in safe Labour areas and gets a significant plurality of the national vote without winning a plurality of seats then the clamour for PR will become deafening.
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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I also still firmly believe that the floating voters in English marginals who decide general elections are not going to buy into the JC project. I'm afraid theses people want to see their own economic prosperity safeguarded, first and foremost.

The irony being that their own economic prosperity (and that of their children) is being fatally undermined by:

(a) capitalism entering an end-game scenario where a very few people own absolutely everything,

and

(b) their inability to make choices that might change that.

All we're left with at the end of that road is to burn shit down. I'd like to avoid that, if only for my kids' sake.

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Forward the New Republic

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Alan Cresswell

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The right wing political parties (not just in the UK) have managed to sell a story that says that what's good for the people at the top of the ladder is good for everyone. They tell us stories about trickle-down benefits. And, even when everyone knows that it just doesn't work like that, people still believe it. And, the turkeys vote for Christmas. Time after time.

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Bibliophile
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
The day after Corbyn is elected (and I still don't accept that it's a done deal), the right wing media will open the trapdoor of the massive silo of stinking ordure that is currently hanging over his head. (They're holding fire at the moment because they want him to win.) The shitstorm will not stop or even abate for the next 4 years and 9 months, or until JC steps down for the good of his party and his own sanity.

After a year or two of this, and once Labour's poll ratings are firmly camped below 20%, the Blairites won't need to get any blood on their hands. Corbyn will have to quit long before the next election.

Dropping a massive silo of stinking ordure over the heads of the leaders of opposition parties is what the press do. Miliband had nearly five years of it non stop. Farage's had the hostility of most of the press, especially the Tory supporting newspapers the Mail and The Times. In fact the only party leader not to get this treatment was the press' golden boy David Cameron. If Miliband can put up with five years of non stop insults I think Corbyn could manage it as well. Don't forget that Corbyn's been through this before. In the eighties when he started his career he was part of what the tabloids called the 'loony left' that was heavily attacked y those tabloids.

Second don't expect the Labour vote to collapse. Firstly many of the middle of the road floating voters who gave Blair his huge majorities have already switched to other parties. Secondly although he'll lose some voters he'll also gain some, specifically Green voters, non voters (especially younger non-voters) and non ideological protest voters. Labour's poll numbers may or may not dip but thy won't collapse.

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
You know, I'd love to believe that. But Corbyn will be driving along the edge of a cliff for 4 years and sooner or later something will happen (it may be something apparently quite trivial) that'll cause the wheels to come off and send him crashing over.

I also still firmly believe that the floating voters in English marginals who decide general elections are not going to buy into the JC project. I'm afraid theses people want to see their own economic prosperity safeguarded, first and foremost.

I think that's right. I've been saying since the election, that if Osborne can deliver prosperity for the middle class for the next 5 years, they will win again.

It's rather a big if, though. It assumes that neo-liberalism, having crashed the world economy, will now become a peaceful ocean of prosperity. Well, maybe.

It also assumes that Cameron and Osborne will not crash on various rocks which lie ahead.

The refugee issue has shown them (in my book, at least), to be moral pygmies, who produce shame in fellow citizens. Obviously, not everyone feels the same.

Ah well, we live in interesting times.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Karl: Liberal Backslider
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# 76

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quote:
Originally posted by Pink Floyd:

New car, caviar, four star daydream,
Think I'll buy me a football team

Money, get back
I'm all right, Jack, keep your hands off of my stack.
Money, it's a hit
Don't give me that do goody good bullshit
I'm in the hi-fidelity first class traveling set



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Might as well ask the bloody cat.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

I think that's right. I've been saying since the election, that if Osborne can deliver prosperity for the middle class for the next 5 years, they will win again.

The problem at this point is that absent success in the UK itself - we are reliant on most of the rest of the world taking off. Even if the US could potentially be healthy, Europe looks likely to flounder for the next 5 years and Chinese growth - even if they continue to pull it off - is not likely to enrich the UK.

The second issue is that the middle classes are getting to the age where even if they have a fairly reasonable housing situation - sitting on tons of equity having paid off their mortgage - their children are far less fortunate - and all temporarily fixes to this would inflate the housing bubble even further.

The final issue is Europe, if we have moribund trade and a floundering Europe - that could pull both wings of the party even further apart.

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The right wing political parties (not just in the UK) have managed to sell a story that says that what's good for the people at the top of the ladder is good for everyone. They tell us stories about trickle-down benefits. And, even when everyone knows that it just doesn't work like that, people still believe it. And, the turkeys vote for Christmas. Time after time.

This, I think is the crux of the matter.

Our democracy is desperately in need of some serious refreshing. For the debate to be better informed, and for the people at large to vote in their own interests. For the disadvantaged non-voters to turn out and vote.

The question is this: Will the (probable) ascension of Corbyn lead to such an effect? In which case, 2020 is very winnable for Labour. If not, then he cannot possibly win as the marginals are what it is all about.

I really am a proper-lefty and would love to see proper lefty policies. But unlike some (most?) of the left I don't think that the Blair/Brown governments were a disaster. There was a lot of good in there and I'd take Brown as PM / Darling as chancellor over the idiots we have at the moment every day of the week and at least twice on a Sunday.

The great failing of the left is that we let the best be the enemy of the good.

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
for the people at large to vote in their own interests. For the disadvantaged non-voters to turn out and vote.

Or, even for people to vote in favour of those less advantaged than them, for the overall benefit of all in our nation and beyond.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
for the people at large to vote in their own interests. For the disadvantaged non-voters to turn out and vote.

Or, even for people to vote in favour of those less advantaged than them, for the overall benefit of all in our nation and beyond.
Absolutely. And for the record I am likely (in the short term) to be better off with the Tories. But the truth is - especially with the economic illiteracy and insanity (to quote Martin Wolf) of this government, people merely have to vote in their own interests. If they did very few would vote Tory.

This government won on the basis of a stunning propaganda victory which worries and saddens me. What worries me even more is that they seem to believe their own propaganda.

What I am longing for is the total and deserved deconstruction of this wall of misleading nonsense.

That is the future of UK socialism.

AFZ

P.s. If anyone wants me to provide evidence for my assertions above, I am more than happy to do so.
Long term economic plan

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:

This government won on the basis of a stunning propaganda victory which worries and saddens me. What worries me even more is that they seem to believe their own propaganda.

I think they succeeded because they were able to get the media to buy into their propaganda to a large extent (see the general attitudes around things like the deficit, and regulation).

To that extent they are able to get away with things like this:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/61f867fa-2c76-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3lELhcOa9

because there aren't many people joining up the dots.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Yes, one thing I am hoping for from Corbyn is an intellectual and political deconstruction of neo-liberalism, which has been mystified by both Labour and Tory, so that very few people understand it.

It has begun to be seen as a natural and inevitable economic force, or set of forces, which we can only bow to. This seems unlikely to me, but at any rate, politicians don't generally actually discuss stuff like this.

People like Paul Mason have begun to open this up for discussion, so hopefully Labour will do the same, and not cower in their bunkers, parroting Tory phraseology, and intoning 'me too'.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Penny S
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I was going to quibble with alien's description of the current government as idiots. And then I remembered the origin. People - correction, men - who put their own interests and comfort above those of the demos. In the original case, by not attending the assembly of the people qualified to do so and taking part in the governance of the state. Not, obviously, the case here. But they certainly don't have the interests of the whole state in mind. So, idiots.

I certainly need neo-liberalism explained, and especially why it doesn't seem to have anything in common with the paleo-liberalism I grew up with.

[ 09. September 2015, 13:55: Message edited by: Penny S ]

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quetzalcoatl
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Well, excessive deregulation led to a massive economic crash, but honestly, we have it under control now, and that nice Mr Osborne knows exactly when to press the accelerator, when to turn the steering wheel, so we should be .... CRASH.

Oh sorry, we're going to have to kill some more poor people. Never mind. Your weekly shop at Waitrose should be OK, you might find that Oyster Bay sparkling wine costs a little more, and your mortgage ditto. You're worth it.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:
I certainly need neo-liberalism explained, and especially why it doesn't seem to have anything in common with the paleo-liberalism I grew up with.

Right: paleo-liberalism is the doctrine that the government ought not to arbitrarily harass or imprison its subjects (especially at the behest of established churches). In particular, government ought not to arbitrarily confiscate their property. Nor ought it to artificially restrict trade by granting monopolies.
The political arguments for this are articulated by Locke. The economic arguments by Adam Smith.

From there, there are two ways you can go. One is to ask whether there any vested interests other than the government (and established churches) that are effectively harrassing people. The other is to ask whether there are any other ways in which the government is doing things to the displeasure of people with lots of property.

Progressive liberalism is when you take the first route out; you side against the wealthy when they start harassing people in their turn. Neo-liberalism is when you take the second path out of paleo-liberalism: you emphasis the importance of the interests of people with lots of property.

(That's obviously slanted, but I hope not misleading.)

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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quetzalcoatl
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'Kill the poor' is just shorter.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Bibliophile
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
From there, there are two ways you can go. One is to ask whether there any vested interests other than the government (and established churches) that are effectively harrassing people. The other is to ask whether there are any other ways in which the government is doing things to the displeasure of people with lots of property.

Progressive liberalism is when you take the first route out; you side against the wealthy when they start harassing people in their turn. Neo-liberalism is when you take the second path out of paleo-liberalism: you emphasis the importance of the interests of people with lots of property.

(That's obviously slanted, but I hope not misleading.)

And of course libertarianism is for those that want to take neither route out but who want to stay at the paleo-liberal position. The trouble is that that the libertarian position is not a stable one. It will tend to lead to either progressivism or neo-liberalism. The last US President who could be described as a paleo-liberal, and one who is often cited as an example by people like Ron Paul, was Grover Cleaveland over 100 years ago and he was quickly followed by Teddy Roosevelt and the Progressive era.

If you want to avoid both progressivism and neo-liberalism you also have to avoid libertarianism.

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Touchstone
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# 3560

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quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
The day after Corbyn is elected (and I still don't accept that it's a done deal), the right wing media will open the trapdoor of the massive silo of stinking ordure that is currently hanging over his head. (They're holding fire at the moment because they want him to win.) The shitstorm will not stop or even abate for the next 4 years and 9 months, or until JC steps down for the good of his party and his own sanity.

After a year or two of this, and once Labour's poll ratings are firmly camped below 20%, the Blairites won't need to get any blood on their hands. Corbyn will have to quit long before the next election.

Dropping a massive silo of stinking ordure over the heads of the leaders of opposition parties is what the press do. Miliband had nearly five years of it non stop. Farage's had the hostility of most of the press, especially the Tory supporting newspapers the Mail and The Times. In fact the only party leader not to get this treatment was the press' golden boy David Cameron. If Miliband can put up with five years of non stop insults I think Corbyn could manage it as well. Don't forget that Corbyn's been through this before. In the eighties when he started his career he was part of what the tabloids called the 'loony left' that was heavily attacked y those tabloids.

Second don't expect the Labour vote to collapse. Firstly many of the middle of the road floating voters who gave Blair his huge majorities have already switched to other parties. Secondly although he'll lose some voters he'll also gain some, specifically Green voters, non voters (especially younger non-voters) and non ideological protest voters. Labour's poll numbers may or may not dip but thy won't collapse.

Firstly, I think that all previous media goading of political figures, included that handed out to Milliband, Brown, even Foot, Hatton (and Corbyn) etc. in the Eighties, will look like gentle playground teasing compared to the ordeal which awaits Corbyn as Labour leader. As someone who didn't actually want the job that much, and had to be persuaded to stand, I suspect he may say "I just don't need this at my time of life", and try to arrange a handover to an anointed successor. Then things could get interesting.

In fact I'm wondering if that actually is his plan. He must know as well as anyone that the British electorate are not going to make him prime minister. Sorry, they just aren't. There is as much chance of Elvis winning the next Derby on Shergar. But he may be able to move the Labour party away from timid triangulation and bring on a generation of young leaders who have some guts and conviction, something that Blair/Brown signally failed to do.

Secondly, I am very sceptical of an electoral strategy that relies on the votes of non-voters. Non-voters don't vote, hence the epithet.

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Well, if Osborne delivers 5 years of prosperity, then the electorate will not make any Labour leader prime minister.

However, that is one massive if. For example, it assumes that there won't be another economic crash, and that Cameron and Osborne will not crash onto various rocks.

To me, they resemble a couple of spivs, trying to sell you life insurance down the local market. We shall see.

PS. I used to have a nice folder, full of old articles explaining why the SNP could not possibly obliterate Labour in the last election.

[ 09. September 2015, 17:00: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:
I certainly need neo-liberalism explained, and especially why it doesn't seem to have anything in common with the paleo-liberalism I grew up with.

Neo-liberalism is, like any other terminology open to interpretation and gets applied in slightly differing ways. However, put simply, it is a belief that markets are the most efficient way to distribute resources and hence make us all better off (Most economists believe this bit). And moreover markets work best when left alone as much as possible. More precisely it is thought that government actions 'distort' markets. 'Trickle-down' economics often goes along with this - that if policies help the wealthy, all will benefit as the economy is better off.

Obviously governments are vital, in the sense that national defence is important. War would definitely distort the market. Property rights are important so the state needs to do that and the whole legal framework. However, government should do as little else as possible. Taxes are thus a necessary evil and should be kept as low as possible. The market knows best. Markets don't fail. Regulation is bad. These are the basic mantras of neoliberalism. The strongest advocates are against state schooling and certainly healthcare provision. Social security is a dangerous distortion of the market and a moral hazard.

Non-thinking advocates say things like "You can't manage an economy or interfere in any way - just look at communism..." Conversely there is a lot of academic work in this area, most notably from the Chicago school. This body of work consists of some excellent models that have brilliant internal consistently but don't work very well in the real world.

The only problem really is that the 2008-9 economic crisis is the mother-of-all-market-failures.

If you read Paul Krugman's blog (Nobel Prize winner) he is very good at pointing to the evidence that supports his assertions. Evidence is most notably absent (or fatally flawed by not knowing how to work Excel) on the other side.

If you want to move beyond dry economics to the societal effects there are a lot of places to look but one that is well established and easily accessible is the charts of productivity and real wages since WWII. There are many versions of this but basically since the second world war in the UK (and in the US) productivity has increased consistently. Until 1980, real wages tracked this increase. Since 1980 real wages have flat-lined as the wealth generated by productivity gains have been concentrated at the top. Stiglitz (Nobel Prize winner) has written a lot about how this kind of inequality is deeply destablising to the economy as a whole. There are lots of versions of this data around. They all look the same and tell the same story:this one is US data. This is important as it shows that it is a complete lie that the market knows best and is 'natural.' What we actually have is a skewed system that concentrates wealth.

Moreover it is a complete lie that to make business thrive, government needs to get out of its way. If you look properly, many of the great sucesses of big business have benefited hugely from basic research funded by the state sector. Not to mention having a safe, healthy and well educated populus to recruit a work-force from. Another interesting tale is that of Rolls Royce aero engines. In the late 1960s they developed the fan-jet engine - specifically the RB211. This subsequently was superceded by the Trent series which powers just about every type of big airliner flying today. Turbofans are the industry standard for jetliners and were a big step forward in jet technology. Unfortunately, developing the RB211 bancrupted Rolls Royce. The government rescued them in 1971 by nationalising the company. It was privatised in 1987. The point being that Rolls Royce is a world leader in aero-engines and a big employer and a big tax-payer in the form of corporation tax. None of which would be true if it hadn't been saved by the government. But of course, all government intervention is bad.

If you have the time, I would very much recommend this symposium: The economic possibilities for the new government. Saïd Business School, University of Oxford It's really informative and interesting. Sir David Hendry is especially worth listening to.

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
Secondly, I am very sceptical of an electoral strategy that relies on the votes of non-voters. Non-voters don't vote, hence the epithet.

The thing is there are various groups of non-voters, and if someone manages to get one or more of those groups to become voters then that could have a significant influence on an electoral result. But, an electoral strategy also has to include convincing the undecided voters to vote for you. So, an exclusive reliance on getting non-voters to the polls is probably unwise.

I think the groups of non-voters that may be enticed to the polls to vote for Labour include:
  • The "they're all the same so it doesn't make any difference who I vote for" group. Putting up a party lead by someone who is clearly not the same as everyone else may get them to vote - although it's a two edged sword since some of this group may decide that they don't want the different candidate.
  • Those who are currently teenagers and will get their first election, and younger people generally. Studies I've seen have all shown that young people are generally more concerned over social justice issues, more likely to be left leaning in their politics, more likely to get involved in protests and direct action, but also less likely to actually vote. Corbyn is known to also be involved in the same protests, and may be seen as electable. And, Corbyn has made extensive use of social media, which will also put him in the face of younger people a bit more. I also think that Mhari Black might be a strong influence in encouraging younger people to vote, as an example of a young person making it to the Commons - I know her first speech was widely shared on social media.
Of course, those who simply can't be arsed to vote will still not vote. But, there is scope for increasing voter turnout from some sectors. And, with many seats relatively marginal even getting a few percent higher turnout may be enough to swing some seats.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
... This government won on the basis of a stunning propaganda victory which worries and saddens me. What worries me even more is that they seem to believe their own propaganda. ... [/URL]

Nonsense.

This government managed to get an overall majority on the basis of an unconvincing 37% of the poll. There's nothing stunning about that. ⅔ of those that voted, voted for someone else. Nor is there anything about that which gives them a legitimate mandate to implement Conservative policies rather than just steer the ship.

However, a lot more of that ⅔ voted for someone else than voted Labour. It was 37% Conservative, 30& Labour and 33% somebody else.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Penny S
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Thank you very much. I shall try to make time for further reading, though I have come to the conclusion that I was probably brought up in meso-liberalism, which was leaning to progressivism. My grandfather, for example, was the secretary of his local Liberal party in the 19naughties, but also organising the local branch of Joseph Arch's agricultural workers' union (which led to him being doubted by the local solicitor's wife, but admired by the local lady bountiful.) And when I started to vote, I would go down the three documents and tick the policies I agreed with, and cross those I didn't. (Except that halfway through the Tory's I would black out with marker.) And I always ticked more of the Liberal's as they then were. Grimond's time, that was.
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