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Source: (consider it) Thread: Will the last one please switch off the lights? (population decline)
Raptor Eye
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This thread has given me something to think about. I had wondered why if there are empty towns already built and people without homes, the two could not be put together. There are issues of multiple occupancy and lack of infrastructure and resources to sustain overpopulated areas. When we see how successful planned new towns are, it can't be beyond the wit of people to come up with reasonable strategies and to work together to achieve them, in everyone's interests.

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Belle Ringer
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quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
why if there are empty towns already built and people without homes, the two could not be put together.

One would think so. But then one runs into problems.

Abandoned towns often are more difficult to settle than vacant land because old structures are hazards, even if there's no dangerous environmental issues like decaying asbestos shingles on the house or toxic waste in the soil (like old leaded gasoline tanks that leaked).

There are vacant towns in Italy, in USA, etc, once viable communities, but if the water has dried up, who can live there?

Or if the only way to earn a living is to raise and milk a few animals but the neighbors no longer want to buy home butchered meat or the laws now require sanitation facilities not affordable by a small homestead.

I've heard some migrants have moved themselves into abandoned tiny towns in Italy. But how do you educate the kids or provide medical services to isolated places?

I've met people who live primitive by choice, and are happy with a rustic rural life, an outhouse and no electricity. Most of us want more convenience than that, which costs more, which requires a job, which means needing to live near a population center.

Conversion to home-generated solar energy might open up currently deserted places.

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by Belle Ringer:
Social security in USA had the age set at 65 back when the average worker died at 62.
[snip]
Back when living to 65, when retiring from your job, was not common because most workers died in their early to mid 60s, the system was sound.

I don't believe these numbers are correct - do you have a source?

Social Security was established in 1935; according to this life table for 1930, men and women at age 20 had a mean life expectancy of 45.14 and 47.50 years, respectively. That means half of them would live beyond the ages of 65.14 and 67.50; living to 65 was hardly uncommon.

For 1940, the median ages at death for 20-year-olds would be 66.77 for men and 70.24 for women; 61% of those men and 70% of those women would live beyond the age of 65.

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tomsk
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Will failing antibiotics stop people living as long in the future?
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Belle Ringer
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
Social Security was established in 1935; according to this life table for 1930, men and women at age 20 had a mean life expectancy of 45.14 and 47.50 years, respectively. That means half of them would live beyond the ages of 65.14 and 67.50; living to 65 was hardly uncommon.

For 1940, the median ages at death for 20-year-olds would be 66.77 for men and 70.24 for women; 61% of those men and 70% of those women would live beyond the age of 65.

Your figures may be more accurate than mine taken from an article, but living to 65, 70, 75 is far more common today than it was in 1937.

Here's an odd factoid of minimal use: "there were more centenarians in 2010 then there were Social Security recipients in 1937, the first year benefits were distributed." Followed by the demographic observation: "There is absolutely no way that FDR thought Social Security would pay 53,364 people a monthly stipend for over 35 years. Less than 1 percent of the U.S. population was 65 or older in 1940, by 2011 that figure exceeded 18 percent." source

[ 20. March 2016, 01:30: Message edited by: Belle Ringer ]

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RuthW

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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
quote:
Originally posted by anne:
What PJ O'Rourke summarised as "Just enough of me, way too much of you".

Quite.

Am I, or any one else concerned about the Planet's heaving population, really prepared to take a long walk off a short cliff in order to reduce 7 billion Homo saps by the figure of one?

No. But limiting the number of children you have would be a good idea.
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Russ
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What happens, I wonder, if & when medical science gets to the point that natural death by old age can in effect be postponed indefinitely ?

If all it takes is money to keep people living to 90, 100, 110, 120 etc. Increasing amounts of money, of course, as people get older.

So that the money needed to see someone through old age becomes infinite - the more money you have (or can persuade others to spend on your behalf) the longer you live.

Not sure how far away or improbable that is...

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LeRoc

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quote:
Russ: What happens, I wonder, if & when medical science gets to the point that natural death by old age can in effect be postponed indefinitely ?

If all it takes is money to keep people living to 90, 100, 110, 120 etc. Increasing amounts of money, of course, as people get older.

In your scenario where people live until 120, are they still productive at 90?

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rolyn
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Don't suppose slipping something in our tea when we get to 90 will make much difference to population growth. It is the large family mentality and culture which is the problem.
In the absence of war famine or pestilence, doing what China did is the only way to control the human population.

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LeRoc

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quote:
Arethosemyfeet: The island I live on has a population roughly 20% or perhaps less of what it was at its peak (that's not a 20% reduction, that's an 80% reduction), and it fell 15% from 2011 to 2001.
Wow, the picture you paint is gloomy indeed.

quote:
Arethosemyfeet: If you work in the building industry you can do ok.
It appears to me that there wouldn't be a lot of construction on your island? Unless the government is building a new bridge or there is some offshore industry or so.

quote:
Arethosemyfeet: The issue here is not that people don't want to live here, it's that they can't afford to.
I'd imagine that housing would be rather cheap? I was in my parents' village last month and I saw a detached house with separate living and dining room, three bedrooms, garden and garage for €59,000.

quote:
Raptor Eye: I had wondered why if there are empty towns already built and people without homes, the two could not be put together.
What I would really like is for teleworking to lift off. I don't see why people need to be in an office. In principle, I could do my work in any place in the world.

[ 20. March 2016, 09:06: Message edited by: LeRoc ]

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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mdijon
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And China has ended up in a real mess with a demographic profile that has excess elderly and infirm with fewer young people to look after them, leading to a belated relaxation of the one-child policy.

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LeRoc

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quote:
rolyn: In the absence of war famine or pestilence, doing what China did is the only way to control the human population.
No. In quite a number of countries, population is already decreasing naturally. Somewhere between 50 and 100 years from now, the world's population as a whole will start to decrease.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Don't suppose slipping something in our tea when we get to 90 will make much difference to population growth. It is the large family mentality and culture which is the problem.
In the absence of war famine or pestilence, doing what China did is the only way to control the human population.

There are reliable reports of forced abortions, sometimes very late in the pregnancy and even at the point of birth. The official policy was enforcement through fines. Things often went further than that.

Source.

The only way? Certainly not that way.

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Russ
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
In your scenario where people live until 120, are they still productive at 90?

I'm imagining that those whose work doesn't involve physical labour can keep on working - on a part-time or reduced hours basis - indefinitely. As long as they can afford the increasing-every-year costs of the treatments. And manage to avoid various diseases that lead to dementia or other forms of incapacity.

But that those in manual jobs and anyone who doesn"t get the treatments can't reasonably be expected to work beyond 70.

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Raptor Eye
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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
No. But limiting the number of children you have would be a good idea.

Why so, if it will result in decline, empty towns, and insufficient people to look after elderly citizens?

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by Belle Ringer:
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
Social Security was established in 1935; according to this life table for 1930, men and women at age 20 had a mean life expectancy of 45.14 and 47.50 years, respectively. That means half of them would live beyond the ages of 65.14 and 67.50; living to 65 was hardly uncommon.

For 1940, the median ages at death for 20-year-olds would be 66.77 for men and 70.24 for women; 61% of those men and 70% of those women would live beyond the age of 65.

Your figures may be more accurate than mine taken from an article, but living to 65, 70, 75 is far more common today than it was in 1937.

Here's an odd factoid of minimal use: "there were more centenarians in 2010 then there were Social Security recipients in 1937, the first year benefits were distributed." Followed by the demographic observation: "There is absolutely no way that FDR thought Social Security would pay 53,364 people a monthly stipend for over 35 years. Less than 1 percent of the U.S. population was 65 or older in 1940, by 2011 that figure exceeded 18 percent." source

Belle, that article does not appear to be a reliable source of information.

The claim that "less than 1 percent of the U.S. population was 65 or older in 1940" seems pretty surprising! What about all those old people I seem to recall seeing in 1940's movies and photographs? How could old people possibly be so rare?

But it's fairly easily to check against official numbers, and it turns out it's quite wrong. According to numbers from the Census Bureau, in 1940 there were 9.03M US residents 65 or over out of a total population of 132.1M - that's 6.84%, a far cry from "less than 1 percent." The Census Bureau tables for 2011 give 41.4M residents 65 or over out of a total population of 311.6M, or 13.3%, not more than 18%.

I would hesitate to believe anything that author has to say about what he calls "Social Security's Longevity Nightmare".

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Arethosemyfeet: The island I live on has a population roughly 20% or perhaps less of what it was at its peak (that's not a 20% reduction, that's an 80% reduction), and it fell 15% from 2011 to 2001.
Wow, the picture you paint is gloomy indeed.

quote:
Arethosemyfeet: If you work in the building industry you can do ok.
It appears to me that there wouldn't be a lot of construction on your island? Unless the government is building a new bridge or there is some offshore industry or so.

quote:
Arethosemyfeet: The issue here is not that people don't want to live here, it's that they can't afford to.
I'd imagine that housing would be rather cheap? I was in my parents' village last month and I saw a detached house with separate living and dining room, three bedrooms, garden and garage for €59,000.

There are a lot of holiday homes, a lot of them done up to a pretty high standard, so there is a constant stream of renovations, new builds and rebuilds both from second home owners and the established families. We're planning to acquire a near-ruin and do it up and that's fairly common. 2nd home ownership means the bare minimum price for a 3 bed like you describe is around the 120k mark, if it's habitable but needs a lot of work. For one in good condition you're looking at 200k. If it is near a beach or on a rise with a good view then the sky is the limit, 300k+ is perfectly normal.
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
No. But limiting the number of children you have would be a good idea.

Why so, if it will result in decline, empty towns, and insufficient people to look after elderly citizens?
It will resulting in declining population - but, that's the intention surely.

Empty towns are not necessarily a problem unless you have a sentimental attachment to a particular place. Return the land to nature, or to low-intensity agriculture. Or, find new employment and bring people back in - there will always be people who will prefer a small town to the big city. The particular course taken will depend on local factors.

Looking after elderly citizens will take planning. And, as I've repeatedly said, a change in our expectations for old age - including working longer so that the costs of looking after us we impose on our children and grandchildren are smaller.

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rolyn
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
In quite a number of countries, population is already decreasing naturally. Somewhere between 50 and 100 years from now, the world's population as a whole will start to decrease.

'naturally' as in people are using contraception I take it.

Generally good news then.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
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Naturally, as in individual couples are choosing to have fewer children without the imposition of restrictions by government. A combination of not needing to ensure at least some survive to adulthood, with the vast majority of children born in countries not gripped in war or extreme poverty now surviving to adulthood. Add in the imposition children have on the career of parents then the cost of having children increase (the loss of earnings from taking a career break to raise children, or arranging child care to avoid long career breaks).

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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LeRoc

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One thing I'm thinking out a lot. Given that the world's population will start to decline in a couple of decades, does this mean that humanity will lose its 'drive'? (Sometimes I find this a rather convincing argument to start colonising Mars.)

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
does this mean that humanity will lose its 'drive'?

I think it might do. Growing populations seem a strong stimulus to do things and to innovate. However I don't think population growth is slowing as a result of lack of room. Probably all the factors Alan lists above are as important, and so moving to Mars won't restore population growth. We will just have to accept it as inevitable and adapt to it.

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North East Quine

Curious beastie
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I don't think that humanity will lose its "drive". 100 years ago, couples might have six to eight children who went to school till they were 14, then started to contribute to the family income. Sixty years ago, couples had three children who went to school till they were 17, and their subsequent contribution to the family income was smaller. Now couples have one or two children, with an expectation that further education until the age of 21 is normal, and there is no expectation of a financial contribution to the family income.

So long as people have any children at all there will be a drive to improve their world.

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LeRoc

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quote:
mdijon: moving to Mars won't restore population growth.
I think the argument isn't that this will restore population growth (although you never know, they'll need something to do in those long, cold Martian nights …) Rather, the hope is that something like Martian exploration may give humanity a new drive. Restoring our pioneering spirit, as it were.

quote:
North East Quine: I don't think that humanity will lose its "drive".
I hope you're right. I'm basing my estimations on my experiences of having been in some places that currently have population decline, like these half-dead French villages. There may still be some children there, but these aren't exactly places of lively innovation.

But we're basically in uncharted waters here. No-one knows for sure what will happen when the population of the world as a whole will decline.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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Doc Tor
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No one appears to have mentions PD James' sf novel Children of Men, which posits no so much decline as a catastrophic cut-off.

The Britain she paints went to hell in a handcart in short order, and quite believably so.

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LeRoc

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quote:
Doc Tor: No one appears to have mentions PD James' sf novel Children of Men, which posits no so much decline as a catastrophic cut-off.
I haven't read this one. I was thinking a bit of The White Plague by Herbert myself, although the premise is obviously different.


(There is another novel where there are no more children, but no-one cares and life goes on as normal. This book is called Left Behind.)

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
no prophet's flag is set so...

Proceed to see sea
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We drove yesterday on Highway 5 between Wadena and Canora, Saskatchewan, as part of a longer journey. On that 102 km stretch, there are many marked villages and as you travel by, it is possible to see streets laid out and 2 or 6 houses still there. Perhaps a boarded up gas station or fallen in quonset. You have to gas up before because there's not much between. The province has had 1 million people since the 1920s, but the two largest cities have gone from about 50,000 to close to 300,000 each in 50 years.

The rural population has been emptying since mid last century. We always have had a lot of discussion, politics, and more of the same about it. Many hospitals are closed. The solution has been to train "first responders" who then call in the STARS helicopter for emergencies. Children frequently are bussed up to an hour each way to school (it is not supposed to be more than 45 minutes, but they clock it in snow-free months).

One answer has been co-operative businesses so that there are still banks (credit unions), grocery stores, supported living for elderly. Another has been direct government intervention in a socialist way. In the small community (300 homes) we're spending Easter in, we have government company (Crown corporation) provided cell phone towers and wired internet is coming this summer. It is not cost effective for a commercial business. TV cable is a cooperative. Electric and natural gas is government.

All of these leads me to the conclusion that if remote communities do not have services, you need local something like cooperative initiative and government intervention. It serms completely ridiculous that a sparsely populated area like this could have proper services and European locations don't. But I guess we avoided the privatization ideology nonsense some places didn't.

[ 24. March 2016, 21:45: Message edited by: no prophet's flag is set so... ]

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LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
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quote:
no prophet's flag is set so...: All of these leads me to the conclusion that if remote communities do not have services, you need local something like cooperative initiative and government intervention.
Thank you. Your description is very vivid, and this certainly has given me something to think about.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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North East Quine

Curious beastie
# 13049

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Today we drove past the Cabrach, a rural area which was depopulated as a result of the First World War. The young men of the district died on the battlefields of France and Belgium, and there was no-one left to inherit the farms and crofts. Farming there was marginal anyway, the winters are fierce. (British Shipmates will probably be familiar with winter travel reports mentioning the closure of the Cockbridge to Tomintoul road; the Cabrach is the next parish along.) There was still snow on the hills today. The snowdrops are out, but the daffodils were barely budding.

We stopped twice, for morning coffee and for lunch and at both places our waitresses were Polish, though I suspect they are temporary workers, rather than young people with a wish to settle. Will the Cabrach ever be re-populated? Many houses are now just an outline of rubble; the depopulation happened too long ago for there to be empty houses for newcomers to move into.

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North East Quine

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What hope is there for reversing the depopulation of the Highlands, when the Home Office want to deport a family like this.
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LeRoc

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quote:
North East Quine: What hope is there for reversing the depopulation of the Highlands, when the Home Office want to deport a family like this.
Interestingly, from this article: "We were responding to the 2007 Highland homecoming programme the Scottish Government were promoting in Australia, which was also backed by the Home Office. They laid out the progression you could make to come back and help repopulate the Highlands."

I'm sure I'm not the only one who sees the irony in Scotland asking Australia for re-population.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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Jengie jon

Semper Reformanda
# 273

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Le Roc

You may find that in this case the irony is lost on your ordinary Scot. The emigration continued after Clearances finished much of the emigration from the Highlands and Islands was of economic necessity. A friendly caricature of the typical remote Highlander or Islander is of an intellectually able, hardworking person who chose poverty due to a love of landscape/home rather than the easy lucre of the industrial cities. The percentage with degrees and above in these communities far outweighs the demand. Indeed, many young people go to the cities first to University and then for work and only a few return when they have young families or retire.

The emmigration to Australia and elsewhere was often aimed at the urban poor since the decline in heavy industry since the middle twentieth century. So a generation or so on of semi-fulfilled success in the cities. To complicate matters there is also the Irish dynamic in the South West corner of Scotland where "indigenous" labour went to the cities and was replaced by cheaper Irish labour escaping the poverty in Ireland.

Basically, nothing is as simple as it seems. There has been no economic model for sustainable communities in these areas for probably three centuries. The result is that many communities have disappeared and those that still exist fear for their future. Given the limited truth of the caricature and if there was enough investment put into modern communication technology, I suspect they could become a quiet powerhouse of invention but it needs a radical rethink about how life is organised by some big companies at least. However without the effort put into sustain the communities it takes a special type of person to live in these places.

Jengie

[ 03. April 2016, 12:16: Message edited by: Jengie jon ]

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"To violate a persons ability to distinguish fact from fantasy is the epistemological equivalent of rape." Noretta Koertge

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Jengie jon

Semper Reformanda
# 273

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Sorry just to say "indigenous" is in scare quotes because I mean young adults born in the parish. There is very little difference between the Irish and the Scots in that corner of Scotland. Families have hopped back and forward across the Irish Sea since time immemorial.

Jengie

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"To violate a persons ability to distinguish fact from fantasy is the epistemological equivalent of rape." Noretta Koertge

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Posts: 20894 | From: city of steel, butterflies and rainbows | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged



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