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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Who will lead us now?
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
I think the final two will be May and Leadsom, and the party members will choose Leadsom much to the MPs' dismay.
I agree that those are the likely finalists.
Here's a question: we know that Tory voters came out something like 60:40 in favour of Brexit. Does anyone know the support for Brexit amongst Tory party members?
'cause it could well be that the choice between Mrs May and Mrs Leadsom comes down on straight referendum vote lines.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
According to a reasonably well-placed source of mine, all five of the Tory candidates in the running are some brand of Christian; one Catholic, one middle-of-the-road CoE, and three evangelicals.
There are politicians who are Christians and others who are not, there are politicians who are competent and others who are not. There is little correlation between the two.
I wholly agree. Recent correspondence suggests many evangelical voters are more concerned with candidates' policy views on gay marriage than their views on immigration, still less the economy ![[brick wall]](graemlins/brick_wall.gif)
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Ariel
Shipmate
# 58
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Posted
Liam Fox is now out, with May and Leadsom in the lead. No surprises there.
[ 05. July 2016, 17:32: Message edited by: Ariel ]
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
Crabb's out too.
The question is now whether there will be a tactical Gove vote to screw Leadsom over. There are in principle 50 MPs to re-allocate, and Leadsom currently leads Gove by 18.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
Why would they do that? I think more MPs are out for vengeance on Gove than on Leadsom.
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
They might think that May is bound to beat Gove in the party member vote, but might well lose to Leadsom. And they might be right. Leadsom did not impress the PCP in the candidates' preliminary meeting. But in this strange year she might get the members' vote. It wouldn't be quite a repeat of the Corbyn situation but may be a bit too close for comfort.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Why would they do that? I think more MPs are out for vengeance on Gove than on Leadsom.
Because there's not the slightest chance that the party will vote for Gove over May. If Gove and May are the candidates, then Mrs. May is our second female Prime Minister.
A lot of people who want a Brexiteer for PM none the less wouldn't vote for Gove, because he's Michael Gove. They'd vote for Leadsom.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
And they might, just might, reckon that for all his history and sharp elbows, Michael Gove is both more experienced and more competent than Andrea Leadsom. In short they might reckon that either Gove or May could make a decent fist of doing the the job, but they are by no means so sure about Leadsom. And again, they might well be right.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Why would they do that? I think more MPs are out for vengeance on Gove than on Leadsom.
Because there's not the slightest chance that the party will vote for Gove over May. If Gove and May are the candidates, then Mrs. May is our second female Prime Minister.
Are you SURE, super sure, about that?
A lot can happen in a couple of months - and I bet a fair number of Conservative party members are ideological Brexiteers along Gove-y lines.
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Mrs Leadsom is one of the evangelical candidates: she has supported the work of Christian Concern in the past, so obviously isn't put off by Mrs Minchiello-Williams.
Mrs May has been a regular churchgoer all her life: she was one of the first people who welcomed us to the parish when we lived in the Thames valley and it was only much later that I realise she was also our MP. A genuinely lovely lady.
Well, that's charming, but a friend of mine has a Dutch mother and as things stand Mrs May is currently taking the position that we can't be sure that she won't be sent back to Holland. The appalling Mrs Leadsom does take that position but, let's face it the Leave campaign did tell one or two porky pies during the Referendum Campaign, So I'm not sure I really trust her. So it's quite likely that the Tories will be choosing between a candidate who is threatening to deport EU nationals and a candidate who is not but whose veracity can not be relied on. This does not fill me with confidence, frankly.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Nasty though it is Callan, I think they just want to make the reciprocal arrangements (based on past entries) part of the Brexit settlement. It's something that they can see being agreed formally without any difficulty. But I guess they are concerned about hardball being played by the EU on free movement of Labour, so reckon it might be better to slowplay the issue until they find out more.
And I wish Juncker would just shut up. This was an interesting reaction in the European Parliament today.
quote:
The head of the liberal group in the parliament, former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, lambasted the European Council, the forum where EU governments decide policy.
He said the Council's reaction to Brexit was "we shouldn't change anything, just implement existing European policies". "I find this shocking and irresponsible," he said angrily.
There had been warning signs for the EU from previous referendums in Denmark and the Netherlands, he said.
"What are you waiting for? When will the Council recognise that this type of EU - you cannot defend it any more. Europe needs to be reformed... European citizens are not against Europe, they're against this Europe."
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Jude
Shipmate
# 3033
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Posted
In any other job application, Theresa May would have by far the best CV. I hope she wins, even though I don't agree with all she says, she seems more sensible than the other candidates.
Remember when Maggie resigned, it was over closer ties with Europe. Some people will be wishing they'd listened to her now, then we might have been able to stay in Europe without losing our identity.
Posts: 233 | From: A town with four parishes | Registered: Jul 2002
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SvitlanaV2
Shipmate
# 16967
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
According to a reasonably well-placed source of mine, all five of the Tory candidates in the running are some brand of Christian; one Catholic, one middle-of-the-road CoE, and three evangelicals.
There are politicians who are Christians and others who are not, there are politicians who are competent and others who are not. There is little correlation between the two.
I wholly agree. Recent correspondence suggests many evangelical voters are more concerned with candidates' policy views on gay marriage than their views on immigration, still less the economy
People do take to politicians for a variety or reasons, though.
It could also be argued that since mainstream political parties and politicians more or less agree on immigration and the economy you have to look at other things in order to distinguish between them.
I doubt that the choices of a few evangelicals would make much difference, though.
Re the candidates, their uniformly Christian allegiances could do them more harm than good in some circles. The people at the 'Guardian' are probably highly unimpressed.
Posts: 6668 | From: UK | Registered: Feb 2012
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Nasty though it is Callan, I think they just want to make the reciprocal arrangements (based on past entries) part of the Brexit settlement. It's something that they can see being agreed formally without any difficulty. But I guess they are concerned about hardball being played by the EU on free movement of Labour, so reckon it might be better to slowplay the issue until they find out more.
I think, and hope, you are probably right. But there's an awful lot going on at the moment which was entirely unthinkable a few years ago. Just because something is self-evidently a bad idea doesn't mean it isn't going to happen.
It's also a terrible negotiating strategy. "Right, Europeans, give us what we want or we will exchange scads of your young and active people for our pensioners on the Costa del Sol!" And broadly speaking, I can't see any headaches about capital flight being eased if foreign companies if they start thinking that having their employees being deported in large numbers is even a remotely plausible scenario. And, really, there is no point making threats unless you are prepared to carry them out. It's not like we have a huge fund of goodwill in the Chancelleries of Europe, at the moment, and making empty threats isn't really going to convince them to cut us a bad-but-not-biblically-catastrophic deal, which is really the best we can hope for here.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
I hope I'm right, too! And there have been no overt threats to the "already legitimately here", at least as far as I have read.
I do hear that Angela Merkel is pretty fed up with Juncker. Can't say I blame her. In terms of setting the tone for Brexit discussions, he is doing a truly awful job.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
And in other news, I note the pound is still falling against the dollar. The effective devaluation is now in percentage double figures.
In a rational world, that ought to mean the end for Leadsom who both flip-flopped on the negative economic effects of Brexit and dissed any forecasts prayed in aid by Remain that a Brexit would be bad economic news. Mark Carney is saying ( and so are the markets) that some consequential risks to the UK economy "have begun to crystallize". The extent of this crystallization will, hopefully, become clear before Tory Party members vote.
But this is not a rational year. So who can tell?
[ 06. July 2016, 10:02: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I hope I'm right, too! And there have been no overt threats to the "already legitimately here", at least as far as I have read.
I do hear that Angela Merkel is pretty fed up with Juncker. Can't say I blame her. In terms of setting the tone for Brexit discussions, he is doing a truly awful job.
Gratifyingly the line from the May camp now appears to be "we will do the right thing by your people as long as you do it by ours". So, unless the EU goes completely bonkers we are more or less out of the woods.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
So, unless the EU goes completely bonkers we are more or less out of the woods.
If I were a user of recreational pharmaceuticals, I would ask for some of whatever produced that statement.
We are so very far from being able to make any definitive statements at the moment.
[ 06. July 2016, 17:50: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I do hear that Angela Merkel is pretty fed up with Juncker. Can't say I blame her. In terms of setting the tone for Brexit discussions, he is doing a truly awful job.
What Merkel will make damned sure of is that when the Brexit negotiations get under way, they won't be headed by Juncker or the EU Commission, but by the Heads of Government. It was Juncker who ran the talks with Cameron, which failed to prevent Brexit. Merkel is on record as saying that she'd like the UK to be some sort of "associate" member. What that means is anyone's guess, but perhaps we can prevent the worst of Brexit as long as sensible people and not euro-federalist little bureaucrats are running the show.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
lilBuddha
Callan is more than capable of speaking for himself but I'm pretty sure he meant 'out of the woods' on the limited question of repatriation of any EU citizens who came here, quite legally, to work.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
In a rational world, that ought to mean the end for Leadsom who both flip-flopped on the negative economic effects of Brexit and dissed any forecasts prayed in aid by Remain that a Brexit would be bad economic news.
.. and at the time she backed her opinions up with what appears to have been a somewhat exaggerated version of her career (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career).
Of course, if these things are true, and the Tory base do end up voting her in, it won't be the first time something like this happened.
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
On tactical anti-Leadsom voting, I think someone from the Gove camp sent emails around and has now had to say sorry. That may have boomeranged. Pushed a few Govers into the Leadsom camp. The legend of Gove the knifer grows by the day.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
lilBuddha
Callan is more than capable of speaking for himself but I'm pretty sure he meant 'out of the woods' on the limited question of repatriation of any EU citizens who came here, quite legally, to work.
Oh, indeed. I still think that things are going to be very bad indeed. But in that respect they look like being less bad. At times like this one is grateful for small mercies.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
lilBuddha
Callan is more than capable of speaking for himself but I'm pretty sure he meant 'out of the woods' on the limited question of repatriation of any EU citizens who came here, quite legally, to work.
Oh, indeed. I still think that things are going to be very bad indeed. But in that respect they look like being less bad. At times like this one is grateful for small mercies.
My apologies.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
On tactical anti-Leadsom voting, I think someone from the Gove camp sent emails around and has now had to say sorry. That may have boomeranged. Pushed a few Govers into the Leadsom camp. The legend of Gove the knifer grows by the day.
I have no idea how true this is, but legend holds that in 2001 IDS 'leant' some of his votes to Ken Clarke on the grounds that as a Europhile the Tory grassroots wouldn't vote for him but they might have voted for Michael Portillo. Team IDS got sufficiently carried away with this giddy scheme that Clarke won the parliamentary vote and IDS came second by a single vote. It would be ironic and, as Stephen Bush remarks, very 2016, if May were to similarly overplay her hand and inadvertently facilitate a Leadsom-Gove contest. Probably not going to happen, but given her lead, I wouldn't be surprised if a few of her supporters did lend Leadsom their votes, on the grounds that she is more beatable than Gove is. Gove may be a backstabbing bar steward but he is at least a Cabinet minister and has a certain amount of heft. If I were May I would prefer to be up against someone who has never held Cabinet Office and whose CV contains the financial equivalent of claiming to have served with the SAS on the basis of two years National Service in the Army Catering Corps.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
lilBuddha
Callan is more than capable of speaking for himself but I'm pretty sure he meant 'out of the woods' on the limited question of repatriation of any EU citizens who came here, quite legally, to work.
Oh, indeed. I still think that things are going to be very bad indeed. But in that respect they look like being less bad. At times like this one is grateful for small mercies.
My apologies.
No problem. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
On tactical anti-Leadsom voting, I think someone from the Gove camp sent emails around and has now had to say sorry. That may have boomeranged. Pushed a few Govers into the Leadsom camp. The legend of Gove the knifer grows by the day.
When the pol speaks, through his teeth, dear
Fulsome bile, starts to spread
Base rhetoric though, uses Mike Gove, dear
with no ethical thought, in his head
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I note even in the midst of a leadership crisis the Labour party have managed to get a vote through the commons in support of EU nationals currently in the UK being given right to remain.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
On tactical anti-Leadsom voting, I think someone from the Gove camp sent emails around and has now had to say sorry. That may have boomeranged. Pushed a few Govers into the Leadsom camp. The legend of Gove the knifer grows by the day.
Once a Chief Whip, always a Chief Whip.
Is it worth looking at the British House of Cards trilogy, in which the Chief Whip engineered his rise to the top?
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
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Kittyville
Shipmate
# 16106
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
...whose CV contains the financial equivalent of claiming to have served with the SAS on the basis of two years National Service in the Army Catering Corps.
![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
Posts: 291 | From: Sydney | Registered: Dec 2010
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
On tactical anti-Leadsom voting, I think someone from the Gove camp sent emails around and has now had to say sorry. That may have boomeranged. Pushed a few Govers into the Leadsom camp. The legend of Gove the knifer grows by the day.
Once a Chief Whip, always a Chief Whip.
Is it worth looking at the British House of Cards trilogy, in which the Chief Whip engineered his rise to the top?
It's always worth a look, if only because of the way that Ian Richardson is clearly having so much fun in it, but unless you think Gove is planning to put rat poison in his PR guys stash of Charlie and is being egged on by Sarah Vine to have an affair with a Torygraph journalist whom he will subsequently throw off the roof of the House of Commons, to her despairing scream of "Daddy!" I fear that the analogy may be an inexact one.
Anyway, you've made me think about Michael Gove's sex life, so excuse me whilst I go off and pour vast quantities of bleach into my brain in a vain attempt to excise the horror.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Chris Cook is reporting that apparently there are some May supporters who are trying to get Gove on the ticket. It's unknown, apparently, whether they are acting in an official capacity or just being too clever by half. The calculation being that the members think that Gove is a back stabbing bar steward and therefore less palatable to the numpties in the constituency parties than Ledsom. What would be even funnier than the IDS scenario would be if some of May's supporters took the decision to loan their votes the Ledsom and others took their votes to Gove...
Given that May, apparently, has a two thirds advantage over any of the alternative candidates, I think they'd be better off just voting for May and adding "Won MPs vote by a country mile" to her CV before sending her to the members.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331
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Posted
Barnabas62: quote:
In a rational world...
![[Waterworks]](graemlins/bawling.gif)
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I note even in the midst of a leadership crisis the Labour party have managed to get a vote through the commons in support of EU nationals currently in the UK being given right to remain.
Well they've managed to get through a non-binding opposition day motion on which as far as I can work out the entire parliamentary Conservative party abstained anyway...
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
just voting for May and adding "Won MPs vote by a country mile" to her CV before sending her to the members.
they may as well, on current form Mrs Leadsom will undoubtedly have added it to hers...
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Oh, Indeed.
The year is 2018. The Article 50 timescale has been outlasted and no Treaty between the UK and the EU is forthcoming. President Trump flies to the UK for emergency talks with Prime Minister Andrea Leadsom. He's also scheduled to meet the Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn. "Andrea's a great woman with a great CV. We're going to arrange the best trade deals between our countries".
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
So it's May-Leadsom. Personally I'm very pleased that Gove is out. YouGov have anticipated this and polled May-Leadsom among Tory party members: May ahead 63%-31% in the headline figure and leading in all demographics apparently.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
I find what I read about Leadsom worrying, and it isn't because of her Christianity. Or rather, it is, because it seems to be a totally different sort of Christianity.
“I envisage there being absolutely no regulation whatsoever—no minimum wage, no maternity or paternity rights, no unfair dismissal rights, no pension rights—for the smallest companies that are trying to get off the ground, in order to give them a chance.”
Now how does that tie in with the remuneration of the workers in the vineyard?
And I'm somewhat suspicious of the concern for early years care for the young, which sounds great, until knitted in with that maternity/paternity leave, unfair dismissal rights stuff, (unfair dismissals often related to pregnancy), and, a bit dead horsey, defining early years as starting from conception.
I'm not sure of the Christian view of hunting.
She's listened to the experts on climate change, which is good.
But if she were to win, she would be imposed on the rest of us by a minority of the country, willy nilly, with no come back, whatever our beliefs are. That cannot be democracy.
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
So it's May-Leadsom. Personally I'm very pleased that Gove is out. YouGov have anticipated this and polled May-Leadsom among Tory party members: May ahead 63%-31% in the headline figure and leading in all demographics apparently.
Given the track record of the polls, recently, that's not quite the reassurance it once was. Anyone seen any useful pointers whilst investigating chicken entrails?
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Chicken entrails? Something on Radio 4 this morning. An interview with Michael Fallon (Defence Minister) re sending forces to Poland and a meeting he was going to. Did he think some of our European allies might be looking askance at the prospect of the UK being led by "an almost complete novice" (Leadsom of course).
If the message gets out that our European allies would prefer May, then Leadsom may become a shoe-in. It's that kind of year.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Chicken entrails? Something on Radio 4 this morning. An interview with Michael Fallon (Defence Minister) re sending forces to Poland and a meeting he was going to. Did he think some of our European allies might be looking askance at the prospect of the UK being led by "an almost complete novice" (Leadsom of course).
If the message gets out that our European allies would prefer May, then Leadsom may become a shoe-in. It's that kind of year.
Perhaps some Brussels hate figure could be induced to give an off the record briefing that they really want Leadsom because she's useless and they would run rings round her in the Brexit negotiations.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
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Rocinante
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I suspect we'll have rings run round us whoever's in charge - far from taking back control we're going to have to suck up whatever the EU gives us. It's mainly a question of whether the Merkel doves (let's cook up something that lets the UK leave-but-not-really-leave) prevail over the Juncker hawks (kick 'em out and take 'em for every penny they've got).
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Rocinante
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
So it's May-Leadsom. Personally I'm very pleased that Gove is out. YouGov have anticipated this and polled May-Leadsom among Tory party members: May ahead 63%-31% in the headline figure and leading in all demographics apparently.
Given the track record of the polls, recently, that's not quite the reassurance it once was. Anyone seen any useful pointers whilst investigating chicken entrails?
We probably do have to take this poll with a big pinch of salt. The local conservative parties have a long tradition of protecting their independence from central office, and that includes not being very conscientious about submitting up-to-date membership lists. Therefore it's difficult to see how a polling organisation would get hold of enough membership information to contact a representative sample.
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
The local conservative parties have a long tradition of protecting their independence from central office, and that includes not being very conscientious about submitting up-to-date membership lists.
and allegedly the Leadsom campaign have taken soundings that lead to an opposite conclusion - I think it was someone here who said that there were a lot of people in local conservative parties who are similar to Leadsom in background and outlook. Additionally, the former Leave.EU campaign has been working on Leadsom's behalf.
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Rocinante
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Leadsom seems to be taking a bit of a kicking in the media, over her inexperience, over-egging her CV, flip-flopping on the EU, etc.. Maybe this will actually help her, given the weird times we live in. I can't help wondering, if she is imposed as PM by the party members, much as Corbyn was imposed on the Parliamentary Labour Party, will this lead to a similar situation in the Conservative Party, except with far more serious consequences as it will be the government that is paralysed rather than the opposition?
Could we find ourselves, a year from now, with most Conservative MP's refusing to work with a leader they detest, while that leader points to her mandate and refuses to step down?
Or is it the case that Leadsom isn't quite as out of step politically with Tory MPs as Corbyn is with the PLP (or as socially awkward as Corbyn) and they will put up with her?
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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
Or is it the case that Leadsom isn't quite as out of step politically with Tory MPs as Corbyn is with the PLP (or as socially awkward as Corbyn) and they will put up with her?
Pretty much I think.
Until such time as she started to fail, at which point she'd be thrown under a bus with the Tory party's customary ruthlessness.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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Rocinante
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I think as an untested leader with no experience of high office, suddenly catapulted into the highest office of all and having to perform very delicate international diplomacy at a time of crisis, there is a fairly high probability that she will fail.
The PLP have tried to throw Corbyn under a bus, and the bus came to a shuddering halt and is now being towed away to be repaired. Are the rules in the Tory Party less friendly to a leader who has lost the confidence of the lead?
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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
The PLP have tried to throw Corbyn under a bus, and the bus came to a shuddering halt and is now being towed away to be repaired. Are the rules in the Tory Party less friendly to a leader who has lost the confidence of the lead?
Yes bluntly. Vote of no confidence, followed by the procedure we're in at the moment. Labour's problems are 3-fold as I see it:
1) they've got no real tradition of MPs doing in their own leaders - each has been essentially left to "fail in their own time" or do the decent thing however bleak the future looked
2) the knock-on of this cultural inheritance is that the rules governing the leadership of the Labour party appear almost comically badly drafted - no one's sure about such obvious points as whether a sitting leader gets a free pass onto the ballot paper when facing a challenge for example. Indeed, there's actually no provision even for a no confidence vote in the leader - hence the farrago the other week of an entirely meaningless ballot where the best the MPs could hope for was that he'd see the moral case to go.
3) the £3 membership is (and even with the benefit of hindsight it should have been pretty bleeding obvious at the time it was thought of) an absolute invitation to entryism. I know the £3 members didn't tip the balance at Corbyn's election, but they could well be the praetorian guard that keeps him there. If the Tories had the same system it's worth bearing in mind that UKIP would currently be flooding the membership to vote for Leadsom. As it is, £25 and a 3 month period post joining before you qualify for voting rights is keeping the wolf from that particular door.
Essentially, it's really difficult to see the Tories in a Labourlike situation where the membership call the shots over the heads of the MPs. At least in terms of keeping a leader in that the MPs don't want - putting one in is another matter. The IDS experience is hopefully focusing minds a little bit.*
The Tory system is one where the membership get to do a confirmation pick between 2 candidates, but when it comes down to it the real hiring and firing is done by the MPs just as it always was.
*I'd be disappointed if the members went for Leadsom, because it would mean that they'd learned nothing from the IDS experience. My sense is that many members have got that unhappy period etched into their brains and no wish to repeat the exercise.
Hopefully it will prove to be a majority of them - the wilder shores of the Tory membership can be pretty wild indeed, but I'm never very sure how many there are on them....
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And is it true? For if it is....
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Rocinante
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I know a couple of people who voted for IDS in 2001. Up to that point I had considered them to be fairly sensible. But yes, hopefully enough of the membership will remember how that fiasco played out to avoid repeating it.
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