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Source: (consider it) Thread: Jeremy Corbyn out?
Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
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mdijon
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But earlier you were criticizing the PLP for starting the process towards a leadership competition.

If you accept that the chances of Corbyn winning are slim then there is justification to search for a better leader. That the challenger turns out to be Smith and that Smith is running a poor campaign wasn't predictable at the point that they took that decision.

To be honest I think the chief advantage in Smith is that he would be more likely to resign before the next election than Corbyn. I don't see either of them winning, it is desperately depressing that the Labour party has come to this. Where are the political titans waiting in the wings that could bring Labour back to political tractability?

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Who are these people?

You want a list of names?

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MarsmanTJ
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
Where are the political titans waiting in the wings that could bring Labour back to political tractability?

I'm honestly not sure they exist, sadly. The pre-Corbyn front benches didn't exactly cover themselves in glory.
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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
But earlier you were criticizing the PLP for starting the process towards a leadership competition.

That's right - I don't understand the 'But' ....
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mdijon
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That was in the next paragraph.

The point is that if you recognize that the electorate are very unlikely to vote Corbyn in, it is surely reasonable for the PLP to consider changing leader in order to get elected.

You countered that earlier by saying that Smith wasn't much better. My point is that at the time they were considering a leadership challenge and putting wheels in motion it wasn't clear he would be the only alternative, or that has campaign would be so lackluster.

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Frankly My Dear
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Ok, I think I see ... On the assessment of how things are now, I think it's fair to say that the alternative has emerged as a bit of a second-rater - how much of this was predictable I leave to others to ponder ... On an assessment of how things were at the time of Cameron's resignation, then the whole Labour Party - Corbyn & the PLP & the membership together - had a golden opportunity to pull together and surge ahead.
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mdijon
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I think some of the stories referenced up thread regarding the way Corbyn was running the party indicate why the PLP felt that wasn't the right way forward.

Maybe the current mess was entirely predictable. Unfortunately I think an electoral wipe-out is also very predictable at the moment.

Still, one can only hope. A few years is a long time in politics.

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leo
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
me - reactivated

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
me - reactivated
Great. But you voted Labour at the last election so that doesn't help Corbyn get closer to No 10.
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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I think some of the stories referenced up thread regarding the way Corbyn was running the party indicate why the PLP felt that wasn't the right way forward.

Maybe the current mess was entirely predictable. Unfortunately I think an electoral wipe-out is also very predictable at the moment.

Still, one can only hope. A few years is a long time in politics.

They certainly felt it (ie, the staggered resignations) would be a quick job - and that was a massive mis-calculation (and I said so at the time, though not on any public forum).
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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
You want a list of names?

Yes please.

I'm not a Labour voter and as I've said before on these boards, am very anti-Corbyn. He is not likely to turn me into a Labour voter. I can't see much difference between him and John Redwood.

But one of the depressing things about the Labour Party's leadership election last year was that all the candidates - Corbyn emphatically included in that condemnation - were so lack-lustre.

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Frankly My Dear
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There is something in what you say, Enoch.
The two men who might have given the party a shot in the arm? - Chukka Umunna = bottled it and Alan Johnson = Unwilling to play ball at all.
And I acknowledge this as someone who leans more to the Corbyn side of the party.

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
Both my parents and both my siblings. None of them have a history of political activism; all have joined the Labour Party in support of Jeremy Corbyn.
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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
Both my parents and both my siblings. None of them have a history of political activism; all have joined the Labour Party in support of Jeremy Corbyn.
But i) did they vote Labour in 2015; and ii) will they become properly politically active (i.e. not attending demos but canvassing and knocking on doors)?
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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
They certainly felt it (ie, the staggered resignations) would be a quick job - and that was a massive mis-calculation (and I said so at the time, though not on any public forum).

They failed to foresee two things:

1. That Mr Corbyn would think it reasonable to remain in position and reject all compromise despite commanding the support of fewer MPs than Angus Robertson;

2. That, following the implosion of Messrs Gove and Johnson, Ms Leadsom would recognise that, despite her strong grassroots support, she was out of her depth and did not have the confidence of her MPs, and would therefore withdraw - meaning the contest was over within weeks instead of dragging on until September.

(1) does not, I think, reflect well on Mr Corbyn. Mr Corbyn himself might wish to reflect well on (2).

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
Me.

Anyone been politically DE-activated by Corbyn?

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Frankly My Dear
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I can't speak for anyone else, but I was one of the ones cheering Corbyn on NOT to resign - I don't know about the 'reasonableness' of this; it just would have been a huge affront to the membership to allow such a thing to succeed.
The proper course of action was to put up a contender, from the off.

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
But i) did they vote Labour in 2015; and ii) will they become properly politically active (i.e. not attending demos but canvassing and knocking on doors)?

Who would possibly have access to any data like this? All we can say is that the labour party has grown in membership very dramatically. If that has a political impact or not can't be determined at this point, but it seems a bit much to dismiss it as a factor simply because no-one has the data on the intentions and previous history of the joiners.

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Gee D
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Going back a few posts, Frankly My Dear asked what polling an MP would have done to ascertain the opinions of members of the constituency parties. Probably none, but most MPs would have regular meetings with their local members to discuss a range of issues. In addition, there would be less formal meetings with those who do much of the work - those who attend meetings, those who carry out letter-boxing, those who hand out leaflets at polling booths. Much the sort of work that is probably overlooked by the 3 pound members calling out for Corbyn's return.

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Mark Wuntoo
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Martin60: I am not quite de-activated. If there had been an opportunity to pay three quid this time I may well have done that - in order to vote for Smith. He is holding out a possibility of remaining in the EU - I would have thought that would be attractive to Labour party members?

And, yes Frankly My Dear, I wanted to see Alan Johnson stand for the leadership and suspect that we would be in a very different ship if he was leader.

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Frankly My Dear
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Gee D - You may have a point, but I think the jury is still out on the level of involvement by newer members - not least because it takes a while in any CLP to get one's face known ....
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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
I would have thought that would be attractive to Labour party members?


Although probably not to Labour party voters, especially in the North of England...

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Frankly My Dear
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Indeed!
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leo
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
me - reactivated
Great. But you voted Labour at the last election so that doesn't help Corbyn get closer to No 10.
but there are many like me

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
me - reactivated
Great. But you voted Labour at the last election so that doesn't help Corbyn get closer to No 10.
but there are many like me
Even if we accept that the plural of anecdote is data, unless you are someone who a) voted Conservative last time and b) live in a Tory/ Labour marginal, that doesn't really get us very far. The object of the exercise is to win a General Election, which involves changing perceptions of the opposition among people who voted for the government, last time. If enthusing one's base were an adequate electoral strategy, IDS and the Tories would have romped home in 2005.

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Mark Wuntoo
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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
I would have thought that would be attractive to Labour party members?


Although probably not to Labour party voters, especially in the North of England...
I agree. First, there is the job of getting an elected Party leader who will lead an effective opposition and then a leader and Party who will be more attractive to voters (or at least less unattractive than Corbyn).

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
If enthusing one's base were an adequate electoral strategy, IDS and the Tories would have romped home in 2005.

And as if to help prove the point, let's not forget that the Tories recognised they were going nowhere under IDS and threw him under the bus *before* the 2005 GE.

In Tory circles, the wisdom is that Michael Howard did an excellent job of stopping the rot, binning the self-indulgent Tory wish-fulfilment navel gazing, and setting the stage for the modernisation of the party up to 2010.

Winning was never on the agenda for 2005, dragging the membership kicking and screaming back from their ideological comfort zone so that people in the real world would begin to take them seriously very much was.

[ 30. August 2016, 10:09: Message edited by: betjemaniac ]

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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
me - reactivated
Great. But you voted Labour at the last election so that doesn't help Corbyn get closer to No 10.
but there are many like me
Even if we accept that the plural of anecdote is data, unless you are someone who a) voted Conservative last time and b) live in a Tory/ Labour marginal, that doesn't really get us very far. The object of the exercise is to win a General Election, which involves changing perceptions of the opposition among people who voted for the government, last time. If enthusing one's base were an adequate electoral strategy, IDS and the Tories would have romped home in 2005.
Fair enough in broad terms. But fails to account for the potential votes coming from those who supported other parties last time (or no party at all) -- This is the kind of research and voter-engagement that Labour needs to turn its attention to next ...
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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
The two men who might have given the party a shot in the arm? - Chukka Umunna = bottled it and Alan Johnson = Unwilling to play ball at all.
And I acknowledge this as someone who leans more to the Corbyn side of the party.

I have slightly mixed feelings about Alan Johnson but would have been delighted with Chukka Umuna. I guess he looked into the abyss of labour leadership, press intrusion and the end of personal life and, as you say, bottled it. A great loss. Perhaps he wrongly assumed others would pick the ball up but they haven't.

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Gee D
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
Gee D - You may have a point, but I think the jury is still out on the level of involvement by newer members - not least because it takes a while in any CLP to get one's face known ....

It takes no time to put your name down t letter-box an area next Saturday afternoon. I'd be surprised if many of the Corbyn romantics who paid their 3 pounds have even thought of that.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
[T]hose who have been politically 'activated' by Corbyn

Who are these people?
me - reactivated
Great. But you voted Labour at the last election so that doesn't help Corbyn get closer to No 10.
but there are many like me
Even if we accept that the plural of anecdote is data, unless you are someone who a) voted Conservative last time and b) live in a Tory/ Labour marginal, that doesn't really get us very far. The object of the exercise is to win a General Election, which involves changing perceptions of the opposition among people who voted for the government, last time. If enthusing one's base were an adequate electoral strategy, IDS and the Tories would have romped home in 2005.
Yes, this is the sort of thing I was driving at (in a perhaps less than clear way). If you're one of these many people who've just joined, it seems to me that you're only going to make a difference if i) you didn't used to vote Labour but now you are (and even then, that might not be all that, for a number of reasons) and/or ii) you're going to put in the hard work of campaigning for a Labour victory (which means pounding pavements or picking up the phone, not feeling good about yourself by going on a demo on a Saturday morning).

This is admittedly based on little more than a hunch, but I don't see many of these new members falling into either category.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I have slightly mixed feelings about Alan Johnson but would have been delighted with Chukka Umuna.

That's interesting. Why do you think that? Since they're both on the right of the party I would've thought most people would've gone for the ex-postman over the smarmy lawyer?
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Albertus
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Yes indeed. People used to talk about Umunna as a British Obama. That's precisely why I don't like him. Great shame that Johnson's private life got messy at a crucial time.
Jon Cruddas would be my choice, tho' I don't think he wants it or at any rate would go for it.

[ 30. August 2016, 22:25: Message edited by: Albertus ]

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
Yes indeed. People used to talk about Umunna as a British Obama. That's precisely why I don't like him.

Or in Andrew Neil's famous put-down: in Washington they talk of Barack Obama as an American Chuka Umunna.
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Albertus
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Good for the brillo pad.

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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
Gee D - You may have a point, but I think the jury is still out on the level of involvement by newer members - not least because it takes a while in any CLP to get one's face known ....

It takes no time to put your name down t letter-box an area next Saturday afternoon. I'd be surprised if many of the Corbyn romantics who paid their 3 pounds have even thought of that.
Who's going to do that before they've even been introduced to the old-timers? There has to be some settling-in.
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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I have slightly mixed feelings about Alan Johnson but would have been delighted with Chukka Umuna.

quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
That's interesting. Why do you think that? Since they're both on the right of the party I would've thought most people would've gone for the ex-postman over the smarmy lawyer?

Both very far ahead of a TV ad man.

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
Yes indeed. People used to talk about Umunna as a British Obama. That's precisely why I don't like him.

Because you don't like Obama? Either way it sounds odd not to like someone because of who other people liken them to.

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Gee D
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Frankly My Dear, perhaps everything is done online now, but in former primitive times you went along and actually met people at the meeting at which you joined. It was pretty hard work not to volunteer for some letter-boxing, handing out leaflets in a local shopping centre or some such task.

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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
Frankly My Dear, perhaps everything is done online now, but in former primitive times you went along and actually met people at the meeting at which you joined. It was pretty hard work not to volunteer for some letter-boxing, handing out leaflets in a local shopping centre or some such task.

Meeting people at meetings is what I was referring to. These 'hellos' and 'getting to know yous' have to happen first.
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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I have slightly mixed feelings about Alan Johnson but would have been delighted with Chukka Umuna.

That's interesting. Why do you think that? Since they're both on the right of the party I would've thought most people would've gone for the ex-postman over the smarmy lawyer?
IIRC though, Alan Johnson stood down as Shadow Chancellor because he knew he was out of his depth. Granted the bar for leader is currently very low ...

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I have slightly mixed feelings about Alan Johnson but would have been delighted with Chukka Umuna.

That's interesting. Why do you think that? Since they're both on the right of the party I would've thought most people would've gone for the ex-postman over the smarmy lawyer?
IIRC though, Alan Johnson stood down as Shadow Chancellor because he knew he was out of his depth. Granted the bar for leader is currently very low ...
Maybe, but that's not how the public had been perceiving him ... Whereas, with Balls, that's how he was perceived, and yet there was no budging him ... Oh well ...
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Callan
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Originally posted by Anglican't:

quote:
Yes, this is the sort of thing I was driving at (in a perhaps less than clear way). If you're one of these many people who've just joined, it seems to me that you're only going to make a difference if i) you didn't used to vote Labour but now you are (and even then, that might not be all that, for a number of reasons) and/or ii) you're going to put in the hard work of campaigning for a Labour victory (which means pounding pavements or picking up the phone, not feeling good about yourself by going on a demo on a Saturday morning).

This is admittedly based on little more than a hunch, but I don't see many of these new members falling into either category.

Interestingly Owen Smith is winning by a country mile among people who were members of the Labour Party prior to May 2015 but is being tonked among those who either joined during the first leadership election or subsequently. I'm guessing that the new blood consists of a) people who were members of far left parties prior to 2015, b) ex-Greens c) former Lib Dems who supported the party on the somewhat implausible grounds that it was a party of the far left and d) people who buggered off at some point during the Kinnock/ Smith/ Blair era and now have their party back. Whether or not they are prepared to go out and pound pavements delivering leaflets is an open question But I am guessing that most of them don't really give a stuff about electability because 25% in the polls and 120 MPs (which is Labours natural floor, I am guessing) is so much better than anyone in a), b) or c) has been used to and category d) think that compromise with the electorate is the Sin Against The Holy Ghost.

I don't think that leafleting et. al. will be an issue. Labour now has something like 500,000 members so even if 2/3 of them are clicktivists this gives them nearly as many active members as the Conservatives have in total (c177,000) many of whom are frail and elderly. I think that the main problem will be piling up votes in constituencies where Labour cannot lose and losing them, in large numbers, in constituencies where they can and will.

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Rocinante
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:

I think that the main problem will be piling up votes in constituencies where Labour cannot lose and losing them, in large numbers, in constituencies where they can and will.

A few months ago I was thinking it was quite possible that Labour might win the popular vote at the next election but end up with fewer seats than the Tories, for this reason.

I have to say this scenario (winning the popular vote I mean) now seems unlikely.

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PaulTH*
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I have slightly mixed feelings about Alan Johnson but would have been delighted with Chukka Umuna.

I would have voted Labour with either of these two fine men as leader. I never will with Corbyn and it would be unlikely with Smith as leader.

quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Interestingly Owen Smith is winning by a country mile among people who were members of the Labour Party prior to May 2015 but is being tonked among those who either joined during the first leadership election or subsequently.

This just goes to show that it was Ed Miliband's changes to the party constitution which have saddled it with the unelectable Corbyn. The £3 Trots really have changed everything.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Interestingly Owen Smith is winning by a country mile among people who were members of the Labour Party prior to May 2015 but is being tonked among those who either joined during the first leadership election or subsequently.

You're just quoting "Saving Labour" here. I can't find any actual polling data to back that up. What would be interesting is if you could.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
The £3 Trots really have changed everything.

£25 Trots, please... [Roll Eyes]

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Forward the New Republic

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Interestingly Owen Smith is winning by a country mile among people who were members of the Labour Party prior to May 2015 but is being tonked among those who either joined during the first leadership election or subsequently.

You're just quoting "Saving Labour" here. I can't find any actual polling data to back that up. What would be interesting is if you could.
I live to serve...

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An die Freude
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Am one of the Corbyn loyalists, used to be political atheist with rather hard right inclinations in Scandinavia.

Rather frankly, having moved to the UK and seeing it with outside eyes, this country is FUBAR not because of either extreme socialism (or the risk of it) or necessarily extreme capitalism, but because of nimbyism and cronyism making it culturally and corruption-wise the Western European equivalent of Russia. Everyone is looking out for themselves solely, and is first and foremost making sure not to get stepped on by others.

That's why I've joined Labour. For me, as for seemingly many others, Corbyn is a way to break the cronyist system on both sides of the political fence. Sure, he has his leftist leanings and he sometimes misjudges situation (although with a former PM who caused Brexit in order to stay in power which might ultimately break the U in "UK", I'm not sure he's the worst on the playing field). Still, he's the best because he's not the rest. In my eyes, he has never gotten a single chance to prove his leadership because the cronyist, nimbyist prevailing order wouldn't allow him.

And I say this as someone who supported Cameron against Brown, and with a former right-wing party membership in Sweden. People like me join Labour, not just £3 Trots, in order to support the challenge of the existing cronyist, nimbyist order. I didn't support Labour before because whatever they were opposing under Ed Miliband, it never was the real problem.

And no, I don't think nationalisation of the railroads or removing the monarchy are the main reforms that the UK should undertake. I think rebuilding and modernising the entire rail structure is way overdue and that the monarch should be asked to protest the gerrymandering on both sides of the political fence. But Corbyn is the only candidate who represents a threat to the order of nimbyism and cronyism, which is the biggest roadblock against the necessary reforms without which the UK will become increasingly East European.

[ 31. August 2016, 19:01: Message edited by: An die Freude ]

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