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Source: (consider it) Thread: Jeremy Corbyn out?
chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:

The irony here is that the far left, who as the old joke goes, predicted seventeen out of the last five recessions are now arguing for favourable economic conditions which will continue inevitably. No more crises of capitalism! All hail the stability of the global financial markets!

Yes, surely I missed the part where I called for a red-revolution, free money for everyone and repealed the Law of Gravity. [Roll Eyes]

As you were.

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Honest Ron Bacardi
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Honest Ron Bacardi:

As Callan pointed out, the theory is sound up to a point. The point comes when you just can't get anyone to lend you the folding stuff at a realistic rate (aka a Credit Crisis). Nobody knows when that will occur - it's more a matter of confidence than of calculation.

At this point government borrowing rates are low, so there is clearly room to borrow. Arguing that something unexpected could happen that would raise rates is really an argument for never borrowing enough 'just in case', you either choose to trust the current yield curve on gilts, or you don't - in which case you are making an argument based on something else (ideology perhaps).


[Your Greek comparison is off because there were
other factors there that don't apply in this case - most importantly that they were effectively borrowing in a foreign currency.]

I'm a bit mystified by this response, Chris. Maybe the fault is mine for not being clear enough. My point was not that further money cannot be borrowed - indeed, I hope it was fairly obvious from that post that I think it can. It was simply to point out certain conditions that must first exist.

But in response to your own points, current bond yields are entirely predicated on the current situation and its foreseeable future, which is of course a conservative government with a diminishing likelihood of a labour government in the medium term. Assuming that is equivalent to some hypothetical moment when a labour government comes to the market for a big chunk of money is a step too far, at least without covering the necessary preconditions to make that borrowing affordable. Which was my point.

Of course the situation here is not the same as Greece, I agree with you there. But the point about Greece was solely to illustrate the fact that credit never really runs out - it simply gets too expensive. Though in passing, the external vs. internal currency argument is only partial in a world with (relatively) free movement of capital between currencies. But that is beyond the point I was trying to make.

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Amika
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quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
quote:
Originally posted by Amika:


I believe Corbyn's biggest problem is his outsider status and that Owen Smith would have been allowed to continue in incompetence. Whether he would be left alone for the whole five years is moot, but he would surely have lasted longer than nine months.

Amika - there are hints of a view here that seems to be commonly held by Corbyn supporters - certainly people like Billy Bragg seem to buy it. It is that the establishment / status quo attacks Corbyn because he is not one of them and that they (Labour's mainstream and the Tories' mainstream) are quite happy to take it in turns in power. Corbyn is a real threat to this cosy little set up and this is why he is attacked - or at least that's how the story goes.

This position just doesn't stack up. The Tories attack him because they see a chance of destroying Labour for a generation - perhaps permanently. They'd happily face him in 2020. They'd love to be in power and are not scared of him.

The left that isn't behind him fear that very thing. Again it is not the thought that he will sweep to victory and bring in a fairly Milibandesque set of policies, it is the thought of the Tories being in power for a generation they really dread.

The biggest problem with the view that the establishment is working together, is that in the 2015 election it was very obvious that Labour MPs and members were incredibly disappointed / depressed by the result. The status quo / establishment isn't this homogeneous blob. In fact there are a number of mini-status quos and they certainly aren't working together.

My view isn't that the Tories fear Corbyn. I read that a lot on social media and always cringe a little. I know they don't fear him; I know they're loving this. I also understand, to some extent, the views of the Labour resigners. Even so, I don't see much point in having semi-Tory Labour in instead of the Tory Tories. I can no longer vote for semi-Tories, and that's what's on offer apart from Corbyn. My fear, too, is that we will never get rid of the Tories (of either stripe). That's why I can't forgive the resigners.

Right-wing Labour talks about 'the vulnerable' and how it would help them, and how, effectively, they are the only hope of the poor/disabled, because Corbyn can't win, but right-wing Labour's track record, by the end of the Blair/Brown era, is appalling, and most of those people are still there, among the resigners.

I don't believe the whole 'might of the establishment' is working as one to destroy Corbyn, but I do think that when he emerged as leader, the media in particular didn't take him seriously, thought he was a silly flash in the pan, not worthy of their time, and dismissed him. Now many of them try to dismiss his supporters as well.

This situation could have been ameliorated if only there had been a large, experienced set of left-wing Labour MPs waiting in the wings. As it is we have the likes of Rachel Reeves, Tristram Hunt, and Liz Kendall making the most noise. We have MPs who are so unlike the working class people of this country (of which I am one - or was so born and certainly in the Precariat now) that people don't vote for them because they see them as too distant from their own experience.

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Amika
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
I think not because 1) Most members of the PLP agree with Owen Smith's politics

How significantly different from Jeremy Corbyn's policies are Owen Smith's politics?

His platform is roughly speaking, "the same as Jeremy, but I can get the Parliamentary Party and the electorate behind me".
He's anti-austerity, anti-zero hour contracts, pro-50% higher rate tax, pro-rail nationalisation.

He voted for Trident, so if you think getting rid of Trident is the single overriding issue in UK politics today (more important than austerity) then you'll vote for Corbyn. I think we should get rid of it, but I think austerity is more important.

The difference is I don't believe Owen Smith means it; it was just a platform, a pitch to get Corbyn supporters onside. Initially, albeit that I support Corbyn, I wanted to think well of Owen Smith, but his campaign just got nastier and nastier. The end campaign of smears was not a good tactic to get Corbyn supporters onside.
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quetzalcoatl
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I don't think the Tories fear Corbyn in an electoral sense. But I do wonder if the Establishment, using that word rather lazily, dislike left-wing ideas, and don't want to see them widely disseminated.

Thus, Corbyn is often dismissed as some kind of throwback to the 70s, or some kind of Marxist relic, with mothballs coming out of his ears. I think there is more going on than that.

I sometimes look at my wife, who used to be very Green, member of Greenpeace, blah blah, and she cheers every time the Corbusier appears on TV. What is this about?

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
We have MPs who are so unlike the working class people of this country

If this is indeed a problem, is independent-school educated Jeremy Corbyn the solution?
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quetzalcoatl
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Amika wrote:

quote:
This situation could have been ameliorated if only there had been a large, experienced set of left-wing Labour MPs waiting in the wings. As it is we have the likes of Rachel Reeves, Tristram Hunt, and Liz Kendall making the most noise. We have MPs who are so unlike the working class people of this country (of which I am one - or was so born and certainly in the Precariat now) that people don't vote for them because they see them as too distant from their own experience.
Now I feel gloomy. Labour has become posh, and right wing. I think in Scotland, voters had an outlet for this fedupness - SNP. In England, there is either UKIP or the LibDems.

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Amika
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
We have MPs who are so unlike the working class people of this country

If this is indeed a problem, is independent-school educated Jeremy Corbyn the solution?
I gather that was a prep school and that later he went to a grammar, but didn't go to Oxbridge, as have so many MPs. It shouldn't matter, but recent research has shown that it is indeed this dissonance that prevents some working class people from voting Labour, or indeed engaging in politics at all.
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quetzalcoatl
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I don't think the point is Corbyn's own background, but whether his leadership could facilitate new kinds of people coming into politics and Parliament.

Not just working class people, but people who would not normally see it as their thing.

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Sarah G
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quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
I don't see much point in having semi-Tory Labour in instead of the Tory Tories.

Here's one example. Tony Blair passed a law banning new grammar schools. Theresa May is going to bring them back.

Here's another. The Brexit referendum. Not even considered under Blair, done under the Tories.

Here's another. A significant increase in spending on Health and Education. Versus Tory cuts.

Three examples of very many. After a decade or so of right wing government, the advantages of an actually electable centre left government, over a right wing one, will become painfully clear, not least to the most vulnerable in society.

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
... After a decade or so of right wing government, the advantages of an actually electable centre left government, over a right wing one, will become painfully clear, not least to the most vulnerable in society.

As it was in 1997. Or am I the only person reading this thread whose memory goes back that far.

There are a lot of us who want neither a raving right wing government nor a raving left wing one.

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Rocinante
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Thank you Sarah G. Was going to post something similar but really couldn't be arsed. Have rehearsed it numerous times on this and other forums.
[brick wall]

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Ricardus
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Plus I think the late Mr Chávez's Venezuela illustrates how an incompetently administered social-democratic regime can have far worse outcomes than a well-administered centrist regime.

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
How significantly different from Jeremy Corbyn's policies are Owen Smith's politics?

The difference is I don't believe Owen Smith means it; it was just a platform, a pitch to get Corbyn supporters onside. Initially, albeit that I support Corbyn, I wanted to think well of Owen Smith, but his campaign just got nastier and nastier. The end campaign of smears was not a good tactic to get Corbyn supporters onside.
I assume both sides notice smears against their own side more than against the other: there've been plenty of smears against Corbyn's critics. That they're making it all up, to start with. And that Owen Smith does not mean anything he says. That's a smear.

The Tory-lite thing: well, I agree there has been rather too much of trying to look like that in Labour's campaigning, but Blair's government was to the left of Major's government, let alone what we've got now. (It's not as if the Osborne and Duncan-Smith looked at Sure Start and said to themselves, that's a good Tory policy, we'll keep those.)
Miliband's campaign failed to challenge the Tory narrative, but that's a problem with his campaign, rather than with most of his policies.

I supported Corbyn tentatively when he was elected. He looked at least as plausible as Cooper, and more so than Burnham or Kendall. I'd really like him to do something to make democratic socialist ideas mainstream. Has he done so?
I know there's a substantial body of opinion that claims Benn and Umunna have been secretly hacking Seumas Milne's email account and deleting all the press releases before they can be sent. But I don't buy it.

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Anglican't
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If I recall correctly, until recently Venezuela was praised quite fulsomely not only by Mr Corbyn but also by many on this discussion board. They all seem to have become rather more muted on this subject lately.

(ETA: in response to Richardus)

[ 21. September 2016, 21:35: Message edited by: Anglican't ]

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Luigi
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quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
My view isn't that the Tories fear Corbyn. I read that a lot on social media and always cringe a little. I know they don't fear him; I know they're loving this. I also understand, to some extent, the views of the Labour resigners. Even so, I don't see much point in having semi-Tory Labour in instead of the Tory Tories. I can no longer vote for semi-Tories, and that's what's on offer apart from Corbyn. My fear, too, is that we will never get rid of the Tories (of either stripe). That's why I can't forgive the resigners.

Right-wing Labour talks about 'the vulnerable' and how it would help them, and how, effectively, they are the only hope of the poor/disabled, because Corbyn can't win, but right-wing Labour's track record, by the end of the Blair/Brown era, is appalling, and most of those people are still there, among the resigners.

I don't believe the whole 'might of the establishment' is working as one to destroy Corbyn, but I do think that when he emerged as leader, the media in particular didn't take him seriously, thought he was a silly flash in the pan, not worthy of their time, and dismissed him. Now many of them try to dismiss his supporters as well.

This situation could have been ameliorated if only there had been a large, experienced set of left-wing Labour MPs waiting in the wings. As it is we have the likes of Rachel Reeves, Tristram Hunt, and Liz Kendall making the most noise. We have MPs who are so unlike the working class people of this country (of which I am one - or was so born and certainly in the Precariat now) that people don't vote for them because they see them as too distant from their own experience.

I think the main difference between us is that you see very little difference between most Labour MPs and Tories - I don't. Equally you seem to see a big difference between what the vast majority of Labour MPs would do and what Corbyn would - again I don't.

I think most Labour MPs do want to see greater social justice - however they think this will take time and is very, very hard. They talk centre because they feel they have to, but would want to act left wherever possible. Corbyn talks left but I think even if he got into power he would achieve very little radical change. Partly because there is so much inertia in the system; partly because neo-liberalism is interwoven throughout so much of modern life. But perhaps most importantly because much of what people attribute to neo-liberalism has more to do with technological advances - e.g. the decline of traditional manufacturing industries.

Money and power is more mobile than ever before and this presents significant problems to those wanting to tackle inequality. Perhaps the reason Mandelson said he was very relaxed about people becoming filthy rich was because he and the other Blairites had no idea how to tackle growing inequality without putting significant economic growth at jeopardy. But this appears to be problematic in every advanced technological economy.

I think the truth is the right of the Labour party has no easy workable answers to this. I also think Corbyn hasn't either. If he took inequality seriously he would engage more fully with the complexity of the problem. I am very disappointed that he can't be bothered to do that hard thinking.

[ 21. September 2016, 21:39: Message edited by: Luigi ]

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Luigi
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The above cross-posted with all the answers from Sarah G onwards.
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Amika
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quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
I don't see much point in having semi-Tory Labour in instead of the Tory Tories.

Here's one example. Tony Blair passed a law banning new grammar schools. Theresa May is going to bring them back.

Here's another. The Brexit referendum. Not even considered under Blair, done under the Tories.

Here's another. A significant increase in spending on Health and Education. Versus Tory cuts.

Three examples of very many. After a decade or so of right wing government, the advantages of an actually electable centre left government, over a right wing one, will become painfully clear, not least to the most vulnerable in society.

All true, and I've said before that Blair did some very good things. I supported him even though I could see he was to the right of my own politics. This is something I think people don't get about those of us who support Corbyn now. We've been there, we've supported Blair, Brown, and Miliband. We've been loyal to Labour through incarnations we found sadly wanting. Like all other Labour voters, we suffered the sucker punch when Miliband failed to win in 2015. We are the same people, but now we have a leader who actually represents us and the party right says NO WAY, even though the right has lost two elections. How has it changed to render it more electable now? If anything it is worse, and the Labour 'brand' tarnished by so many unsavoury shenanigans (on all sides).

A Labour party that introduced the Work Capability Assessment and joined in with the demonisation of unemployed people had lost its way.

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quetzalcoatl
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Good old Blair, banned grammar schools, and helped kill hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq.

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Rocinante
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Good old Corbyn, protested against the Iraq war and voted against the Anglo-Irish agreement.

Perhaps he voted in favour for the minimum wage, civil partnerships and increased NHS funding. Though given his record, I wouldn't put money on it.

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Amika
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:

I supported Corbyn tentatively when he was elected. He looked at least as plausible as Cooper, and more so than Burnham or Kendall. I'd really like him to do something to make democratic socialist ideas mainstream. Has he done so?
I know there's a substantial body of opinion that claims Benn and Umunna have been secretly hacking Seumas Milne's email account and deleting all the press releases before they can be sent. But I don't buy it.

There have been a lot of disappointments, from 'article 50' to (apparently) dropping his enthusiasm for Richard Murphy's 'people's quantitative easing'. I felt that was the way to go, a means of sorting out the NHS and others. I'm no economist but I become uneasy when any politician claims s/he will pay for various schemes by ensuring corporations and rich people pay more taxes. I don't think that's likely to be as easy as claimed, or bring in as much money as they suggest.

I'm not sure why Corbyn has (according to Richard Murphy) dropped PQE. I hope he will look at it again. I do think a universal basic income is an excellent proposal. I'm disappointed that he doesn't seem willing to look at a Progressive Alliance with Greens, SNP and others, which I think is probably the only way forward to kick out the Tories.

Yes, I support Corbyn, but I don't feel he is perfect by any means.

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Rocinante
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I think people's QE was dropped because it would effectively end the independence of the Bank of England. Now that is an option (and McDonnell I think is in favour of ending independence) but if the government is thus able to magic money into existence to finance anything it wants, the temptation will be for them to do it again and again, and any pretence of fiscal discipline will collapse. QE is a desperate measure to keep a flatlining economy on life support. If it became the standard method of financing public services, we could have uncontrolled inflation.

Corbyn won't have any truck with alliances with non-socialist parties. Hell will freeze over first.

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Callan
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Originally posted by Amika:

quote:
I'm not sure why Corbyn has (according to Richard Murphy) dropped PQE. I hope he will look at it again. I do think a universal basic income is an excellent proposal. I'm disappointed that he doesn't seem willing to look at a Progressive Alliance with Greens, SNP and others, which I think is probably the only way forward to kick out the Tories.
Given that the possibility of a Labour Government, propped up by the SNP, allowed David Cameron to become the first Prime Minister to increase the share of the vote at a General Election since the Old Queen was on the throne, I can't see an electoral pact with the SNP doing much for Labour's prospects and, I can't really see what's in it for the SNP either. If every Green voter in the UK transferred their vote to Labour without conditions, it would barely dent the Tories lead in the poll.

The way to government for the Labour Party runs through marginal seats, places like Nuneaton, Warrington South and Finchley, which can only be won if the Labour Party takes votes from the Conservatives. I think there are other reasons Corbyn would not win in Warrington or Finchley but if there is no plan or intention to take votes of the Tories there is no chance of Labour winning.

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Oh well, Rachel Reeves has just written an article arguing the most important thing to do WRT Brexit is to end free movement of Labour so scratch my points about Labour's mainstream dragging Owen Smith to a reality based economic policy.

My current plan for Election Day 2020 is not quite finalised but visiting a polling station won't be high on my list of priorities.

I think it will be essential: not to vote for someone, but to vote against someone or something else, that is very nasty indeed. Politics isn't pleasant now and it won't improve in the next few years.
At the moment I think the single most important thing is to ensure that the UK retains membership of the Single Market. As things stand neither of the main parties look solid on that score, the Lib Dems are apt to give up important things in coalition negotiations and neither Plaid or the SNP stand in England. The Greens haven't got a snowballs chance in hell of being in government and I would rather stab myself in the eye with a pickle fork than vote for UKIP, who are a bunch of Petainist scum who would rather see the country burn than flourish as a modern 211st Century Democracy. Why on earth would I waste half an hour writing "you're all scum, Come back Tony, practically everything nearly forgiven" on my ballot paper when I could do something productive like watching Omar's finest moments on Youtube instead?

[ 22. September 2016, 16:09: Message edited by: Callan ]

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Good old Blair, banned grammar schools, and helped kill hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq.

Well voting for Mr Corbyn isn't going to bring them back, is it?

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Good old Blair, banned grammar schools, and helped kill hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq.

Well voting for Mr Corbyn isn't going to bring them back, is it?
But it'll probably help bring back grammar schools (in a round-about way).
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Sarah G
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quote:
Originally posted by Amika:
...even though the right has lost two elections. How has it changed to render it more electable now?

That's a little simplistic as an analysis.

Both Brown and Milliband came close to winning. However they were up against a Tory party that had, after a very long time in opposition, worked out that you win elections from close to the centre. Cameron positioned the Tories accordingly.

It then came down essentially to a battle of personalities, and Cameron squeaked it twice.

What worries me is that it will take Labour as long to work out how to win elections as it took the Tories previously. That just as the Right last decade anchored the Tories away from the centre and power, believing victory would come, Momentum will (ironically given the name) keep Labour anchored away from the centre and power.

The Labour left will work reality out eventually, but Kinnock may well be right that it won't be in his lifetime.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Honest Ron Bacardi:

My point was not that further money cannot be borrowed - indeed, I hope it was fairly obvious from that post that I think it can. It was simply to point out certain conditions that must first exist.

But in response to your own points, current bond yields are entirely predicated on the current situation and its foreseeable future, which is of course a conservative government with a diminishing likelihood of a labour government in the medium term. Assuming that is equivalent to some hypothetical moment when a labour government comes to the market for a big chunk of money is a step too far, at least without covering the necessary preconditions to make that borrowing affordable. Which was my point.

So you think that the current rates are a result of there being a Conservative government, and were there to be a Labour government voted in there would then be a sharp rise in the rates? Remind me again what they were back in March 2009 (a time where there was far more uncertainty around as to what might happen next, because we were in genuinely uncharted territory and few knew how the major economies were going to react).
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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:


Both Brown and Milliband came close to winning. However they were up against a Tory party that had, after a very long time in opposition, worked out that you win elections from close to the centre. Cameron positioned the Tories accordingly.

FWIW I don't think Mr Cameron did win from the centre. I think he won from a position somewhere to the right of Mr Duncan Smith but which he presented in terms that appealed to centrists. Mr Corbyn, by contrast, expresses everything he says in terms exclusively designed to fire up left-wingers. He has shown no interest in expressing his ideas in terms that centrists and right-wingers would approve of.

The other aspect is that people who self-identify strongly in terms of 'left' and 'right' probably aren't going to switch from one to the other - they might vacillate between Labour and Lib-Dem or Tory and UKIP but not between Tory and Labour. Floating voters are people who are less committed to left-wing or right-wing ways of doing things and more committed to party leaders who look like they are going to get the job done and know what they are talking about. Which Mr Cameron apparently did more successfully than Messrs Major, Hague, Duncan Smith or Howard. Does Mr Corbyn look like he can get the job done? Not to anyone outside Momentum.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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rolyn
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Most of the pundits this morning seem to be saying Corbyn's got it. So Labour are going to have to start backing and stop whacking if it wants even a sniff at TM's colourful heels at the next General Election.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Callan
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And every interview of a returning minister begins:

"So, Shadow Secretary of State for Posts and Telecommunications, after the Referendum you said that Jeremy Corbyn was unfit to lead the Labour Party, you are now effectively saying he should be the next Prime Minister. What happened to change your mind?"

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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mr cheesy
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Seems like Corbyn has won with a larger majority than he got last time.

I wonder if a large wave of members will have left by the end of this afternoon.

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arse

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Martin60
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62%!

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Love wins

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Callan
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Just your regularly scheduled reminder that winning over the membership of the Labour Party and winning over the country in a General Election may not require identical skill sets.

The popping noise you may hear is Theresa May breaking out the champers, by the way.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Just your regularly scheduled reminder that winning over the membership of the Labour Party and winning over the country in a General Election may not require identical skill sets.

The popping noise you may hear is Theresa May breaking out the champers, by the way.

That's one possibility, but George Osborne has been saying some very odd things for someone who was in the cabinet so recently. If within the House of Commons for a start, some pro-Europe Tories were to talk to anti-Corbyn Labour members and the LibDems, who knows what could happen in the near future?

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:

The popping noise you may hear is Theresa May breaking out the champers, by the way.

Y'know, if the Tories see the chaos and think it'd be a good time for a snap GE, things could get very interesting very quickly.

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arse

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An die Freude
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
The other aspect is that people who self-identify strongly in terms of 'left' and 'right' probably aren't going to switch from one to the other - they might vacillate between Labour and Lib-Dem or Tory and UKIP but not between Tory and Labour. Floating voters are people who are less committed to left-wing or right-wing ways of doing things and more committed to party leaders who look like they are going to get the job done and know what they are talking about. Which Mr Cameron apparently did more successfully than Messrs Major, Hague, Duncan Smith or Howard. Does Mr Corbyn look like he can get the job done? Not to anyone outside Momentum.

You are forgetting that Momentum largely constitutes people like that. Including myself.

.

I will say that I am concerned with Corbyn's ability to unite not just grassroots, but the elite leaders (including the experts council who were supposed to be there to help him gain credibility). I will also say, however, that the Corbyn who just gave a victory speech was a different Corbyn than I've seen before. He radiated confidence. Media training, sure, but he outclassed Miliband and anything his Labour opponents have put up against him. He showed what I believe will be perceived as leadership, in a similar way to that scarily well-performed speech by May as she took the throne in Tories.

I do believe that a confident Corbyn will be a different one to the one we've seen the last year. I do think confidence might bring a bit of calm and the strength of his new mandate can make him a better leader even to his former adversaries. I hope that will be the case. I still think even a terrible Corbyn would be better than Smith on his best days.

And I don't expect his detractors within Labour will agree with me. I do think we will see it in the polls to come though, if the detractors can give him the chance without focusing on destabilization.

Also, he smashed May in Tuesday's PMQ. Neither Miliband, Eagle, Watson or Smith have really been close to that in their performances. I do think that things might be looking up, if Corbyn and PLP can both let go of partisanism and work somewhat together.

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"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH

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An die Freude
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Just your regularly scheduled reminder that winning over the membership of the Labour Party and winning over the country in a General Election may not require identical skill sets.

Sorry for double-posting, but I do have to point this out:
I keep hearing this said by the people whose candidates have failed to win over the country in a General Election twice in a row.

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"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH

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Baptist Trainfan
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
The popping noise you may hear is Theresa May breaking out the champers, by the way.

Or Tim Farron (remember him?) opening the Cava.
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Ariel
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38pp of this thread and that man still hasn't gone.

It might have been a different story if Owen Smith had been one of the big names, but he wasn't. He was someone most people knew little or nothing about before all this happened.

There must be some way of getting Corbyn out. The worry is that he would be replaced by someone even worse.

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Helen-Eva
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quote:
Originally posted by An die Freude:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Just your regularly scheduled reminder that winning over the membership of the Labour Party and winning over the country in a General Election may not require identical skill sets.

Sorry for double-posting, but I do have to point this out:
I keep hearing this said by the people whose candidates have failed to win over the country in a General Election twice in a row.

Doesn't really matter who's saying it; what matters is if it's true.

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I thought the radio 3 announcer said "Weber" but it turned out to be Webern. Story of my life.

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Rocinante
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quote:
Originally posted by An die Freude:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Just your regularly scheduled reminder that winning over the membership of the Labour Party and winning over the country in a General Election may not require identical skill sets.

Sorry for double-posting, but I do have to point this out:
I keep hearing this said by the people whose candidates have failed to win over the country in a General Election twice in a row.

Not an original point, even on this thread. It's just a reheated version of the old saw that says "Labour doesn't win elections because it isn't left wing enough". At least that should now be tested to destruction.

I really hope Corbyn does improve, I really do. He needs to move out of his left-wing comfort zone, and actually work with people who don't agree with him on everything, whom he may not know very well, and with whom he may have crossed swords in the past. It's a messy business, politics in the big leagues. Some of this will probably cause his more starry-eyed supporters to lose faith in him and accuse him of selling out. How he responds to that may come to define his leadership.

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rolyn
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The fallout from Brexit and events across the pond could lift Corbyn. Many bystanders have noticed his tenacity and are quietly impressed. The Labour Party needs to think hard on this and regroup if it wants to put in any meaningful challenge at the next GE.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
38pp of this thread and that man still hasn't gone.

Of course, this thread didn't decide the vote. That was the Labour membership.

But, this is a man who has stood up to a variety of attempts to get him out, who had to fight to even be included as a leadership candidate, who had most of his shadow cabinet quit to try and force him down, who had to have various decisions by the party challenged. Whatever you think of his politics you have to admire his tenacity and strength of character, if he follows through on generosity to his opponents to pull Labour back together then that will be another big tick in his favour.

Now he has the chance to unite the Labour Party around a position he will be able to defend as leader (even if not a position he's 100% in favour of - but, in politics you'll never be 100% in favour of any party position, 7 or 7.5 out of 10 is probably as strongly in agreement with any position you're likely to be). And, he has to sell that to the nation come the next general election.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Mark Wuntoo
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On a mundane but, I believe, relevant note; I think Corbyn needs to learn to accept adulation. I know why he moves on quickly whilst people are applauding but I think he is not doing his leadership any favours. Charisma, whether we like it not, is important.

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

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Ariel
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Of course, this thread didn't decide the vote. That was the Labour membership.

No! Really? [Biased]

My point was basically that this has been rumbling on for months and it's still the same old story.

quote:
But, this is a man who has stood up to a variety of attempts to get him out, who had to fight to even be included as a leadership candidate, who had most of his shadow cabinet quit to try and force him down, who had to have various decisions by the party challenged. Whatever you think of his politics you have to admire his tenacity and strength of character
No, I don't. I think he should have taken the hint and stepped down gracefully when the troubles first blew up. Instead, he's come across like a dull grey obstinate barnacle that resists any attempts to remove it from the rock it's clinging to. Strength of character is one thing, learning to listen to other people and knowing when it's time to give in and let someone else run the show is another.
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Alan Cresswell

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On the otherhand, a large majority of the party voted for him to be leader (twice now). So, who was he supposed to be listening to? A minority who didn't like him, or the majority that did? As far as I can see, the evidence is that he did the right think by keeping going, as he's still the person the Labour Party membership consider to be the best representative of their views.

Of course, if you disagree with Labour Party policies you don't need to vote for a Labour candidate when the election comes round. But, there's no doubt at the moment that the person who best represents the views of the Party, and is therefore in the best position to lead the party forward in developing policies for the manifesto for the next election is Corbyn.

Over quarter of a million people voted for him as leader, that's a lot more than supported Theresa May. Mobilising that support at the next election, and Labour will be in a strong position.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Ariel
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
On the other hand, a large majority of the party voted for him to be leader (twice now). So, who was he supposed to be listening to? A minority who didn't like him, or the majority that did?

Supposing you're just an ordinary office worker, and from time to time the director wanders past and smiles and says something nice then disappears off again. And you think: what a nice bloke.

You happen to know that the managers who actually work with him and go to meetings and all the rest of it are somewhat less than impressed by his management style, and on a day to day basis many are discontented to furious with him, and some have resigned in protest. You personally have no contact with him other than the occasional smile in the corridor.

Naturally, the ordinary workers in the various departments (who hardly ever see him) know from this that the managers can't be anything but malcontents who have some kind of grudge against this lovely man.

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
On a mundane but, I believe, relevant note; I think Corbyn needs to learn to accept adulation. ...

Funny. Not having experienced much adulation over what has now been quite a long life, I get the opposite impression that it has rather gone to his head.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
On the other hand, a large majority of the party voted for him to be leader (twice now). So, who was he supposed to be listening to? A minority who didn't like him, or the majority that did?

quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
Naturally, the ordinary workers in the various departments (who hardly ever see him) know from this that the managers can't be anything but malcontents who have some kind of grudge against this lovely man.

Taken to its logical conclusion Alan's quote leads to populism. Why should the CEO listen to the head of IT saying that we need to develop an SOP on cybercrime when the workers are in favour of the CEO's approach? Why do we need to listen to the office elites who think the accounts aren't well ordered when the clerks are completely supportive of the current system?

That said it will be really interesting to look back at this thread in a few years, especially in 4 years. I very much hope my fears all turn out to be misplaced and that Corbyn gets the party together and manages the PLP.

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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