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Source: (consider it) Thread: Jeremy Corbyn out?
Gee D
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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Most of the pundits this morning seem to be saying Corbyn's got it. So Labour are going to have to start backing and stop whacking if it wants even a sniff at TM's colourful heels at the next General Election.

The trouble is that Labour has been whacking off in electing Corbyn.

Tory victories in 2020 and 2025 coming up. There'll be precious little left of the reforms Attlee's government brought in (and which were largely consolidated under Tory governments until Thatcher, to be honest).

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

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Frankly My Dear
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Happy Day One everybody.
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Stejjie
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This is a year old, but still: "Jeremy Corbyn's supporters and the general public are divided by a gulf that is unprecedented in modern British politics". This is what Corbyn has now to address... and I just can't see him doing it. Particularly with the emphasis he seems to be placing on the members and their role - if this gap still exists, it's surely only going to get worse unless he works as hard as he can to reach out beyond those members.

I actually, genuinely hope he does it. I just can't see it.

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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist

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Mark Wuntoo
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quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
This is a year old, but still: "Jeremy Corbyn's supporters and the general public are divided by a gulf that is unprecedented in modern British politics". This is what Corbyn has now to address... and I just can't see him doing it. Particularly with the emphasis he seems to be placing on the members and their role - if this gap still exists, it's surely only going to get worse unless he works as hard as he can to reach out beyond those members.

I actually, genuinely hope he does it. I just can't see it.

I agree. But I don't think he is capable of reaching out, he's too committed to his policies, his style and the members. No matter how hard he works, one man cannot do it alone (important as I think the leader is). And the members, seems to me, are committed to an ideology (which I happen to like) that does not appeal to the electorate. Sadly. I suspect that a good number of Labour MP's will not have the heart to campaign as hard as they might.

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

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Rocinante
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Corbyn doesn't need to reach out to the members. They already think the sun shines out of his fundament. He will only take Labour further up said orifice.

Floating voters in marginal seats are the people who can give Labour the only mandate that matters a toot. They are the ones to reach out to.

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Sioni Sais
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I don't agree that there is an unprecedented gulf between Labour Party members and the British public. Remember Michael Foot? In the 1983 general election the Labour Party he led advocated nuclear disarmament, widespread intervention in industry, nationalisation of the banks, abolition of the House of Lords in addition to leaving the Common Market. That's a far more left wing programme than Jeremy Corbyn's most enthusiastic wishlist.

I believe Foot was tolerated because the Labour Party was still in hock to the unions but generally far broader than now and those policies advocated, coming just after the defection of some of the centrists to form the Social Democratic Party, had wide but far from universal support of the PLP. What really told against Foot was that his lack of credibility and Britain wold have been a better place had Denis Healey set party loyalty aside for a week and staged a palace coup to depose him.

[ 25. September 2016, 10:13: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]

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Rocinante
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I think it's different from the early 80's. Foot's Labour party largely had the support of the traditional Labour voters. Labour got thrashed in '83 partly because the manifesto was a dog's breakfast and the campaign an embarrassment, but also very largely because the SDP/liberal alliance attracted most of the centre left and floating voters and effectively split the opposition.

Now we have Brexit and everything's different. There is plenty of polling evidence that "traditional" Labour voters in the northern cities and Welsh valleys are defecting to UKIP in droves. Corbyn is attracting new voters in throught the front door, no doubt, but there's a stampede of people leaving at the back.

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
I think it's different from the early 80's. Foot's Labour party largely had the support of the traditional Labour voters. Labour got thrashed in '83 partly because the manifesto was a dog's breakfast and the campaign an embarrassment, but also very largely because the SDP/liberal alliance attracted most of the centre left and floating voters and effectively split the opposition.

Now we have Brexit and everything's different. There is plenty of polling evidence that "traditional" Labour voters in the northern cities and Welsh valleys are defecting to UKIP in droves. Corbyn is attracting new voters in throught the front door, no doubt, but there's a stampede of people leaving at the back.

I don't think there's much evidence that the flow to UKIP has increased. If anything UKIP's support is about where it was at the last election. It will certainly dip without Farage who, for all his many faults, knows a thing or two about populist politics.
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Alan Cresswell

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Unless there's a snap election, UKIP will need to reinvent themselves quite significantly. Having been a single-issue party, where do they go now they have their wish?

A snap election, and they can probably manage a position for a particular form of Brexit. But, by 2020 the UK will be out of the EU, with Brexit defined by the Tory government. If they are to continue to influence UK politics they will need to actually develop policies other than "we will leave the EU". Whether they will continue to attract dis-satisfied voters from Labour is going to depend very heavily on what those policies will be. If UKIP collapse, where will voters who don't like where Corbyn and his supports are heading go? The LibDems may find themselves regaining support, but if voters prefered anti-EU UKIP to Labour they're unlikely to go to the still pro-EU LibDems.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Rocinante
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This caught my eye yesterday:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/Corbyn seen as out of touch with working class voters

YouGov have published the following:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters/

Actually, on reviewing the data it looks like Labour "leavers" who no longer intend to vote Labour are evenly split between UKIP and Conservative, but there is larger group of undecideds. This is a big opportunity for UKIP, one which they are well aware of.

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Rocinante
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cross-posted with Alan Cresswell, I agree on the need for UKIP to re-invent themselves. I think the election of Diane James might indicate a dawning awareness that they need to broaden their appeal beyond "angry elderly white men".
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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
Happy Day One everybody.

Nobody learn anything from the last twelve months. That'll help put the party back together.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
It will certainly dip without Farage who, for all his many faults, knows a thing or two about populist politics.

That is one of his faults.

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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Baptist Trainfan
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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
I agree on the need for UKIP to re-invent themselves.

Well, they've already done that once:
this article is fascinating.

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Frankly My Dear
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
Happy Day One everybody.

Nobody learn anything from the last twelve months. That'll help put the party back together.
Always happy to take positive, constructive contributions
[Smile] (Hint - that wasn't one [Razz] )

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I don't agree that there is an unprecedented gulf between Labour Party members and the British public. Remember Michael Foot? In the 1983 general election the Labour Party he led advocated nuclear disarmament, widespread intervention in industry, nationalisation of the banks, abolition of the House of Lords in addition to leaving the Common Market. That's a far more left wing programme than Jeremy Corbyn's most enthusiastic wishlist. ...

It was the 1983 election which convinced me that we need a properly representative electoral system. Nothing since has changed my view, which I've expressed frequently on various threads.

On the electoral figures in that election, the Labour Party should have experienced a level of wipeout that would have rubbed its nose in realism a great deal sooner and more quickly than eventually happened.

With a different electoral system, it could choose to follow a socialist dream ticket and accept the price that it would bump along on 20-25% of the vote and 20-25% of MPs. It would only get to exercise power under such a system by having to compromise with other parties. If that stuck too much in its ideological craw, well hard luck.

To be able to win elections under the present system, it has to win constituencies. The electoral system happens to give it a cushion of a phalanx of safe seats where enough people will vote for it, whatever its policies are. But that phalanx has not been enough to give it a majority, unless it can position itself to attract the sort of middle ground that the 20-25% terrifies.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Frankly My Dear:
Happy Day One everybody.

Nobody learn anything from the last twelve months. That'll help put the party back together.
Always happy to take positive, constructive contributions
[Smile] (Hint - that wasn't one [Razz] )

'Happy Day One' is neither positive nor constructive. Because it's not Day One. If you want to play along with the narrative that Corbyn supporters go around pretending facts they don't like don't exist, then pretending the last three months / twelve months didn't happen is the perfect way to play along.
If you want to rebuild unity in the Labour Party you need to acknowledge the last twelve months, not sweep them under the carpet.

How about:

Corbyn clearly has a mandate from the Labour Party membership at this time. However, we recognise that his critics had reasonable grounds for their views. We apologise for implying that they were insincere or that they were setting Corbyn up to fail, or that Owen Smith is untrustworthy. We believe Corbyn will learn from the criticisms that have been advanced. We would like to point out that Corbyn's engagement with the media has improved since the leadership challenge started, and that for the first time he is widely agreed to have held May to account at Prime Minister's Question Time, on the issue of grammar schools.
Once again we apologise for all aspersions we cast upon Corbyn's critics. In the words of one of them, what unites us has always been greater than what divides us.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Arethosemyfeet
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
It will certainly dip without Farage who, for all his many faults, knows a thing or two about populist politics.

That is one of his faults.
I would suggest that it is considered a good trait when one is the leader of a right wing populist political party, even if the ultimate effect is negative; much as being an habitual liar and con-person is a positive boon in leading the conservative party.
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Arethosemyfeet
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The problem with that, Dafyd, is that people shouldn't apologise for saying things that are true.
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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
The problem with that, Dafyd, is that people shouldn't apologise for saying things that are true.

If you think that you've got two options:

1) Spend the next three and a half years eagerly waging an increasingly bitter civil war in the Labour Party and then conduct even more bitter recriminations over whose fault it was that you lost the election.

2) Look in the mirror and practice saying, 'Owen Smith is an honourable man and I apologise for ever implying otherwise' until you can make it sound convincing.

The choice is yours.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Honest Ron Bacardi
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Honest Ron Bacardi:

My point was not that further money cannot be borrowed - indeed, I hope it was fairly obvious from that post that I think it can. It was simply to point out certain conditions that must first exist.

But in response to your own points, current bond yields are entirely predicated on the current situation and its foreseeable future, which is of course a conservative government with a diminishing likelihood of a labour government in the medium term. Assuming that is equivalent to some hypothetical moment when a labour government comes to the market for a big chunk of money is a step too far, at least without covering the necessary preconditions to make that borrowing affordable. Which was my point.

So you think that the current rates are a result of there being a Conservative government, and were there to be a Labour government voted in there would then be a sharp rise in the rates? Remind me again what they were back in March 2009 (a time where there was far more uncertainty around as to what might happen next, because we were in genuinely uncharted territory and few knew how the major economies were going to react).
No.

It has little to do with which party we are talking about. It has everything to do with whether any potential lenders have confidence in getting their money back. All we have now (now that the left-wing economists have lost confidence and gone away, or been ignored, whichever) is the desire to reject austerity. Which I share by the way. It now needs a credible strategy for implementation.

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Anglo-Cthulhic

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Dafyd
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Exit Poll. Here.

Obviously very much supporting Corbyn.
The three groups that are majority pro-Owen Smith are longstanding Labour members, 18-24 year olds, and Scottish members.
I'm surprised by the support for Owen Smith in the 18-24 age range.
Scottish Labour is pro- Owen Smith. If Corbyn wants Scotland back from the SNP, he needs to take note.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Callan
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The 18-24 demographic are particularly pro-Remain. Also the Iraq War (and the Blair era more generally) won't be the defining political experience for them in the way it is for some people on the left.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:

I'm surprised by the support for Owen Smith in the 18-24 age range.

From looking at the breakdown; it does not appear to me that the answer is as clear as 'young people were more pro Remain'.

The previous poll purported to show support for Corbyn amongst the 18-24 Labour members running at 58%. His policies on Remain did not change significantly in the last month (the exit poll had him running at 45%).

I suspect that the numbers of 18-24 year olds who had both joined the party and were able to vote were not necessarily representative of 18-24 year olds at large, or even 18-24 year old Labour supporters.

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Callan
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If I were being mischievous I would suggest that the Coalition and Tory cuts since 2010 have fallen disproportionately on the young and therefore they prefer an electable Labour opposition to the luxury of a left-wing party which has socialist principles and no real likelihood of getting back into government.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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chris stiles
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That poll does not provide much of a basis from which to draw that conclusion.
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Arethosemyfeet
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Seriously folks, look at the sample size. You can conclude a whole load of nothing based on a crossbreak of 50 people (applies both to 18-24 age group and to Scotland). I could have shifted the Scotland tally 2% myself.
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George Spigot

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Short video link. Contains swearing and satire.

Who decides Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable.

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C.S. Lewis's Head is just a tool for the Devil. (And you can quote me on that.) ~
Philip Purser Hallard
http://www.thoughtplay.com/infinitarian/gbsfatb.html

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George Spigot

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During his keynote speech.

"But I've got to slightly correct myself because I did say the hall is completely packed, well I did get a message on the way in from Virgin Trains, they have assured me there are 800 empty seats in the hall."

[Smile]

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C.S. Lewis's Head is just a tool for the Devil. (And you can quote me on that.) ~
Philip Purser Hallard
http://www.thoughtplay.com/infinitarian/gbsfatb.html

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mr cheesy
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In a pure #facepalm moment, Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott were headline speakers at an event linked to the SWP (Socialist Worker Party)*.

It is hard to conclude anything other than he is now toast, there is nowhere else to go if he thinks it is acceptable to court the doyens of the SWP.

Pretty much anyone who has ever campaigned on anything in the UK in the last 30 years could tell Corbyn what a trainwreck the SWP are, and the idea that a seasoned left-wing Labour MP wouldn't know about them is extremely hard to comprehend. This is a really bad decision, made on really bad advice. He should resign immediately.

* the issues with the SWP being many and varied, including casual misogyny and overt racism. But more to the point, the SWP has a reputation for invading and then bollocksing up other people's campaigns with their single-track communist schtick. They don't actually do anything at all.

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arse

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Anglican't
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Don't most parties have a rule that your membership is terminated if you support another political party? (That'd be one way to deal with the JC problem...)
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Anglican't
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Also, Corbyn is presumably v. familiar with the SWP's work through the Stop the War Coalition, which is presumably a SWP-front organisation?
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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Also, Corbyn is presumably v. familiar with the SWP's work through the Stop the War Coalition, which is presumably a SWP-front organisation?

Well initially StTW was a coalition of various people including Corbyn, Tony Benn, some Greens, some people from the party which became Respect and various other people from the SWP.

But in time it all fell apart with various people and groups leaving - many saying that the SWP was trying to take over.

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arse

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Don't most parties have a rule that your membership is terminated if you support another political party? (That'd be one way to deal with the JC problem...)

The organisation in question has Diane Abbot as it's President but two SWP types as co-convenors. In principle it's no worse than Liz Kendall addressing a Lib Dem fringe meeting or Ed Balls, Vince Cable and George Osborne appearing together in the Referendum Campaign. However the SWP is a far-left Trotskyist sect which is widely loathed by pretty much everyone else on the left for covering up a rape by one of it's senior members so the optics, to put it politely, are a bit of a fucking disaster.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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quetzalcoatl
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The co-chair of STUR, Steve Hart, is making plenty of noise about this, as he is a supporter of Owen Smith. Sounds like a classic anti-Corbyn whine to me.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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mr cheesy
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Also, of course, there are Labour MPs who are members of two parties: the Labour Party and the Co-operative Party.

I've never quite worked out how they manage it.

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arse

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
The co-chair of STUR, Steve Hart, is making plenty of noise about this, as he is a supporter of Owen Smith. Sounds like a classic anti-Corbyn whine to me.

Sorry, that's rubbish. Some of the most vocal supporters of Corbyn are saying this is totally beyond the pail. What makes this crisis so serious is that many of the Left who are natural supporters of Corbyn are sickened by the SWP.

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arse

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Also, of course, there are Labour MPs who are members of two parties: the Labour Party and the Co-operative Party.

I've never quite worked out how they manage it.

They've had an agreement since the 1930s! There was some talk of Labour MPs who didn't agree with the second leadership election all joining the Co-operative Party but the Co-op Leadership said "no way". The Co-ops are a bit like the National Liberals who were ostensively a separate party but basically just Tories under another name. Michael Heseltine ran for election as a National Liberal as late as the early '60s IIRC.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
The co-chair of STUR, Steve Hart, is making plenty of noise about this, as he is a supporter of Owen Smith. Sounds like a classic anti-Corbyn whine to me.

The standard case against Corbyn is that he is incompetent and has unpalatable associates so, yes, you can add that to the tally. In this instance the difference appears to be that it has cut through to the likes of Owen Jones and Aaron Bastani. Baby steps, but we might conceivably have a competitive Labour Party by the 2035 election

[ETA: Hart supported Owen Smith but has no problem with Comrade Delta and his chums being involved in STUR].

[ 10. October 2016, 20:53: Message edited by: Callan ]

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Beeswax Altar
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The UK will be Texas by then.

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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
The UK will be Texas by then.

Assuming the US is a viable country by then. What happens when the Republicans put up a fascist next time who can keep his hands to himself?

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Beeswax Altar
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The trains will start running on time.

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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
The trains will start running on time.

[Killing me]

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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