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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
Choirboy
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# 9659

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Mark Newmann at University of Michigan has updated his very popular spatial maps from the 2004 election with the new 2008 election data here.

He uses county level population and election return data to color the map with shades of red-purple-blue based on the proportion of vote in each state or county, along with inflating or distorting the geographical area based on population size.

Paints a rather different picture of the union, and gives some hope to Obama's vision that we are neither red nor blue, but one nation.

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Zwingli
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quote:
Originally posted by Organ Builder:
I really don't care about Obama's liberality or McCain's remark or the link, but I think you might want to update your signature, Zwingli...

It's to remind myself, as much as anything. Actually, good point, I think I really should take a break, at least from Purgatory, for a few weeks.
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RooK

1 of 6
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quote:
Originally posted by Foolhearty:
It's "They are the right wing; we are the rest of the bird."

It makes one wonder whether it's a turkey, a cuckoo, or a dodo.
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Timothy the Obscure

Mostly Friendly
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quote:
Originally posted by Choirboy:
Predictions for 2012.

As fewer moderate Republicans hold high office, the party will gradually tilt further to the right.

Sarah Palin is one of the candidates for the Republican nomination in 2012. This, and the rightward tilt (even if slight), may leave the Republican presidential contest in a similar condition to this year - several candidates from various (shrinking) constituencies in the party, none of which can motivate the entire base.

There will be serious infighting within the party in the next few years as various of these groups strive for domination.

This will not be the end of the Republican party, but it may be the end of the dominance of the Christian right within the party. They will remain a sizable constituency, but will have to get used to more compromise within the party, which, in turn, may decrease their influence further.

Conversely, if the Christian right continues their dominance of the party, then the Republicans are in for an extended period in the minority.

Already the loudest voices in the GOP are screaming that they lost because they weren't conservative enough--"If we had really been true to low taxes, small government, cutting spending, and moral values we would have won." My prediction is that the Christian right loonies will chase the moderates out and--unless Obama screws up big time--the Republicans will be in the wilderness for quite a while.

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When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion.
  - C. P. Snow

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Presleyterian
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The problem with the current state of the Republican Party is its fundamentally irreconcilable inconsistency. You can be in favor of small government or you can be in favor of using the power of the state to enforce your moral values.

But you can't be both.

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Foolhearty
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That's far from the only inconsistency. How about believing that the US as a nation is specially favored by God, while keeping your kids out of the government's godless schools?

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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
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This political spectrum thing is starting to get to me, for comparison here are a series of manifestos starting at the extreme left and moving to the extreme right (note the BNP is a facist party and is probably not a worksafe link though I have linked via the BBC news site, UKIP is probably the closest we have to a "liberal" party in the sense of small government party):


New Yorker, you would not know extreme left wing if it jumped and bit you on the nose !

I realise America is culturally different from the UK, but really, nothing that is being offered by your main parties is approaching socialism except the nationalisation of the banking system. Nationalisation everybody is now doing because financial deregulation and untrammelled capitalism in that sense did not really work.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Timothy the Obscure:
My prediction is that the Christian right loonies will chase the moderates out and--unless Obama screws up big time--the Republicans will be in the wilderness for quite a while.

Way back when Hillary was still in the running I suggested if she won, and was overly aggressive about implementing her agenda, there would be a backlash in 2010 comparable to 1994. I think Obama is shrewd enough to avoid her mistakes (although a few people don't see selecting Emanuel as being particularly conciliatory), and with all the concern about 'fixing' things the mood of the nation seems less antagonistic toward 'reform'.

And IMO he scored some humility points yesterday with his 'mutt' comment; gotta love self-deprecation.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
quote:
Originally posted by Timothy the Obscure:
My prediction is that the Christian right loonies will chase the moderates out and--unless Obama screws up big time--the Republicans will be in the wilderness for quite a while.

Way back when Hillary was still in the running I suggested if she won, and was overly aggressive about implementing her agenda, there would be a backlash in 2010 comparable to 1994. I think Obama is shrewd enough to avoid her mistakes (although a few people don't see selecting Emanuel as being particularly conciliatory), and with all the concern about 'fixing' things the mood of the nation seems less antagonistic toward 'reform'.

And IMO he scored some humility points yesterday with his 'mutt' comment; gotta love self-deprecation.

I agree with all of that. There are clear pond differences on what constitutes "radical" or "extreme liberal" or "left wing" etc and I think the labels themselves have become confusing.

To my UK/European ears, Obama sounds like a moderate and considered voice. Having as an experiment followed Fox (Faux) News during the last few weeks of the campaign, (which confirmed for me the criticism of FNC from many Shipmates) I spent just a little bit of time late last night watching "The O'Reilly Factor" which was hosted for once by Laura Ingraham. I thought O'Reilly was bad enough but Ingraham's performance made me feel even sicker. I had to turn it off before the end.

Getting back to Timothy's quote above, I suspect I'm not at all on my own in saying that it is the unpleasantness and partisanship of some on the right wing of the Republican party that really winds me up. In UK politics, after election defeats, we've seen both the Conservatives move to some self-defined "purer Conservatism" (a lurch to the right) and the Labour party (in the early 1980s) move to some self-defined "purer socialism" (a lurch to the left). Electorally, it didn't do either party any good. Polemicists don't make very good listeners.

It may take the GOP a while to rediscover a way back to broader appeal while retaining the best of its principles. But that will inevitably involve turning away from the kinds of self-righteous arrogance coming from Ingraham and others last night. Time for a bit of humility.

mjg, Mrs B and I both chuckled at Obama's "mutt" comment yesterday. We doubted whether it was considered and calculated (unlike rather a lot of the press conference). Rather like his spontaneous and considerate comments about the injured reporter, we felt it told us something good about the man.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Getting back to Timothy's quote above, I suspect I'm not at all on my own in saying that it is the unpleasantness and partisanship of some on the right wing of the Republican party that really winds me up.

IMO neither side has a lock on unpleasant partisanship, which is tangentially addressed in this article on Emanuel: it looks like he's learned from the past which will make it more difficult for the repubs to regain much traction anytime soon, unless Obama can't rein Reid and Pelosi in adequately.

Somehow I have a feeling he'll be able to focus their attention. Why, he might even be able to get their approval ratings into double digits. [Biased]

So I predict modest repub gains in 2010, and Obama in 2012.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
IMO neither side has a lock on unpleasant partisanship

Very true. I think it's an ongoing factor in party democracies (come to think of it, in churches as well). Loyalty and partisanship often seem to get wedded together. Managing this is one of the challenges of political leadership.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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cliffdweller
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quote:
And IMO he scored some humility points yesterday with his 'mutt' comment; gotta love self-deprecation.

I loved how he managed to give a very "Obamaesque" answer to the very simple question of "what kind of dog are you gonna get?" The answer was long, nuanced, thoughtful, and inclusive of all breeds. I predict an SNL skit... : )

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
Way back when Hillary was still in the running I suggested if she won, and was overly aggressive about implementing her agenda, there would be a backlash in 2010 comparable to 1994.

The thing that strikes me about the primaries is that I really thought that Hillary was hurting the party by continuing to run after the race was essentially over. Now, it is clear that the ground game that Obama was able to put together in so many states was a direct result of the work done in contesting all those primaries.

It never ceases to amaze me how often a really smart guy like myself can so totally miss the point... [Big Grin]

--Tom Clune

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This space left blank intentionally.

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
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The conventional wisdom _is_ that a protracted primary battle will hurt you in the general. But it all seems to have been turned on its head with this one. [Smile]

Charlotte

--------------------
WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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Mogwai
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# 13555

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Charlie Gibson: Do you agree with the Bush doctrine?
Sarah Palin: IN what respect Charlie?
CG: What do you believe it to be?
Palin: His worldview.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E&feature=related

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:love:

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agrgurich
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Only 723 days until the mid-term elections!

[Snigger]

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Life is a comedy to those who think & a tragedy to those who feel.-Horace Walpole

AJG

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Mamacita

Lakefront liberal
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
I predict an SNL skit... : )

Fred Armisen has a long ways to go on improving his Obama impersonation. God willing he'll have eight years to work on it. [Big Grin]

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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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Tick tock, tick tock .... just a reminder.

[I think the thread is splitting into tangents, a number of which could form decent separate threads, if any of you want to take an iniative. Tomorrow is due to be its last day as well as its birthday.]

[ 08. November 2008, 23:58: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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FreeJack
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quote:
Originally posted by tclune:

It never ceases to amaze me how often a really smart guy like myself can so totally miss the point... [Big Grin]

You amaze a lot of people with your humility.
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Soror Magna
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quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
The conventional wisdom _is_ that a protracted primary battle will hurt you in the general. But it all seems to have been turned on its head with this one. [Smile]

Charlotte

Could it be because few candidates have made it through the primaries without doing something stupid or outrageous? ISTM Obama made it through a protracted primary battle with aplomb and without nastiness or serious missteps. OliviaG

PS Any word from Huckabee as to whether God still wants him for President? In 2012? Or 2016? [Devil]

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Robert Armin

All licens'd fool
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What about Hilary? Is she likely to try again, either in 2012 or 2016? Somehow I can't see her staying at home and knitting quietly.

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Keeping fit was an obsession with Fr Moity .... He did chin ups in the vestry, calisthenics in the pulpit, and had developed a series of Tai-Chi exercises to correspond with ritual movements of the Mass. The Antipope Robert Rankin

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
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quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
What about Hilary? Is she likely to try again, either in 2012 or 2016? Somehow I can't see her staying at home and knitting quietly.

quote:
Originally by mjg: Way back when Hillary was still in the running I suggested if she won, and was overly aggressive about implementing her agenda, there would be a backlash in 2010 comparable to 1994. I think Obama is shrewd enough to avoid her mistakes
Only she didn't win so her "mistakes" are all in your head.

Hillary will not be knitting any time soon. She has already returned to the Senate for several important votes after giving up the presidential race, even in the midst of campaigning tirelessly and effectively for Obama. She has trounced her competition in her two runs for Senate and will probably continue to do so in the future. Good liberal Senators like Ted Kennedy and Sen. Clinton can often have a more influential political career than any President.

Long live the King, Obama, but God bless the Senator.

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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
Only she didn't win so her "mistakes" are all in your head.

So the overreaching she and Bill attempted in 1993/4 RE Health Care which some pundits suggest fomented the Gingrich led repub gains in the House and Senate is another one of my delusions?

I need to talk to my doctor about these medications. [Paranoid]

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
Only she didn't win so her "mistakes" are all in your head.

So the overreaching she and Bill attempted in 1993/4 RE Health Care which some pundits suggest fomented the Gingrich led repub gains in the House and Senate is another one of my delusions?

I need to talk to my doctor about these medications. [Paranoid]

mjg: Your post used the words "if" and "there would be" clearing indicating that you were predicting the future, not talking about the past.

No need to make trite jokes about mental illness, your problem is communication not medication.

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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
mjg: Your post used the words "if" and "there would be" clearing indicating that you were predicting the future, not talking about the past.

No need to make trite jokes about mental illness, your problem is communication not medication.

My bold.


(5500! And thanks for participating. [Biased] )

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eeGAD

Wandering Stowaway
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Happy Birthday to this thread.

It has been both informative and entertaining, as it was the first SoF thread I read each day. Thanks to all the participants from the past year. I, for one, am going to miss it.

eeG

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You don't fix faith. It fixes you. - Shepherd Book

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:


Way back when Hillary was still in the running I suggested if she won, and was overly aggressive about implementing her agenda, there would be a backlash in 2010 comparable to 1994. I think Obama is shrewd enough to avoid her mistakes (although a few people don't see selecting Emanuel as being particularly conciliatory), and with all the concern about 'fixing' things the mood of the nation seems less antagonistic toward 'reform'.

[Selective bold text mine - B62]

Twilight, I see no communication problem. mjg was referring to what he saw as Hillary Clinton's historical mistakes of over-aggressive implementation. She might have repeated them if she had won, mjg thinks Obama will avoid that risk.

Now you might disagree with him about his take on this particular bit of history, but his meaning seems very clear, to me at least.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
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Okay, I guess the "if she won" threw me.
Sorry, mjg, dissing Hillary and ridiculing the mentally ill are two things that get me riled.

Or maybe I just wanted one last fight -- like EeGad, I'm going to miss this thread.

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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
Okay, I guess the "if she won" threw me.
Sorry, mjg, dissing Hillary and ridiculing the mentally ill are two things that get me riled.

Or maybe I just wanted one last fight -- like EeGad, I'm going to miss this thread.

It was certainly no intention of mine to ridicule the mentally ill except insofar as I have been led to believe by medical professionals it has therapeutic value in certain instances... make of that what you will.


And I think I'm still in the 'denial' stage in my grief over the end of this thread. [Smile]

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
What about Hilary? Is she likely to try again, either in 2012 or 2016? Somehow I can't see her staying at home and knitting quietly.

I doubt it. Running against an incumbent from one's own party is generally frowned upon and age might be a factor later.

Things will be hopping at her day job in the Senate. [Smile]

Charlotte

--------------------
WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by OliviaG:
quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
The conventional wisdom _is_ that a protracted primary battle will hurt you in the general. But it all seems to have been turned on its head with this one. [Smile]

Could it be because few candidates have made it through the primaries without doing something stupid or outrageous? ISTM Obama made it through a protracted primary battle with aplomb and without nastiness or serious missteps.

PS Any word from Huckabee as to whether God still wants him for President? In 2012? Or 2016? [Devil]

I heard the name of Newt being thrown around. Now that's a blast from the past [Eek!] .

Obama really ran an disciplined campaign. The organization he had in place for all those primaries was still there for the general. The grassroots fundraising didn't hurt either.

*waves bye-bye at thread*

Charlotte

--------------------
WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338

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mjg-

quote:
o the overreaching she and Bill attempted in 1993/4 RE Health Care which some pundits suggest fomented the Gingrich led repub gains in the House and Senate is another one of my delusions?
Ironically, in the last several years, Sen. Clinton has been approached by several prominent business leaders and the US Chamber of Commerce begging her to help them come up with solutions to the health insurance debacle. What Clinton proposed back in 1993 was sound, effective, good policy-- it just was a bit ahead of it's time. In 1993 there were enough Americans with good private insurance to listen to the scare mongerers screaming about "she's going to force us all into HMO's!" and "you won't be able to choose your doctor!"

Today, not so much. Won't be able to choose your doctor? Forced into an HMO? The vast majority of us gave up those two years ago. Today we are pathetically grateful to have ANY form of health insurance-- most assuredly an HMO, with no choice of doctors. We'll pay through the nose for it ($1000/mo for my household) and bow and scrape for our employer for fear we'll lose it. Employers meanwhile are desperately trying to continue benefits that increase at several times the rate of inflation while prices and demand for their goods and services are falling rapidly.

If you take Sen. Clinton's plan that was proposed in 1993 exactly as proposed, and describe it to the average right-wing conservative, with no name attached, they will tell you that's exactly what we need-- until you tell them it's the 1993 Clinton plan. Try it. I've tried it many times and have yet to have someone not go for it.

I predict Sen. Clinton will be the pivotal but behind-the-scenes player in developing universal health care for the US, which will be the most significant factor (second only to getting out of Iraq) to turning our economy around.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Foolhearty
Shipmate
# 6196

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Yes, ISTM that any overreaching re: health care back in the early Clinton day was done by the insurance lobbies and arch-conservatives.

I too will miss this thread. Toodle-oo!

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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.

Posts: 2301 | From: Upper right-hand corner | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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Do, thread, go gentle into that good night.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
# 6075

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Will it go to Oblivion, I wonder? Or be shredded?

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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baring some totally unforseen disaster, Obama will be the democratic candidate in 2012, that's just the way it is.

Hilary has already shown signs of intending to make her mark in the Senate, a la ted Kennedy. Though I'm still thinking an apointment of some kind in obama's government is possible.

*Waves good bye to the thread*

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
agrgurich
Shipmate
# 5724

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Goodbye, thread! Off to Limbo with you.

[ 09. November 2008, 18:13: Message edited by: agrgurich ]

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Life is a comedy to those who think & a tragedy to those who feel.-Horace Walpole

AJG

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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
[QUOTE]I heard the name of Newt being thrown around. Now that's a blast from the past [Eek!] .
Charlotte

Yea, nominating an old, washed up, white guy worked so well for them this time.
[Disappointed]
Good-bye, thread -- how long till 'The political junkie POTUS 2012 prediction thread' is started? (I think the first Primaries are in about six months...)

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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'bye old thread. I've learned quite a bit here.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Robert Armin

All licens'd fool
# 182

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Good night sweet thread, and flights of angels sing thee to thy rest.

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Keeping fit was an obsession with Fr Moity .... He did chin ups in the vestry, calisthenics in the pulpit, and had developed a series of Tai-Chi exercises to correspond with ritual movements of the Mass. The Antipope Robert Rankin

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comet

Snowball in Hell
# 10353

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Die, thread! Die Die DIE!


[Devil]

you weirdo saps.

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

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John Holding

Coffee and Cognac
# 158

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As I post, it's two hours to midnight GMT.

ALmost there, people, almost there.

John Holding
Purgatory Host

[ 09. November 2008, 22:01: Message edited by: John Holding ]

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Hare today
Shipmate
# 12974

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quote:
Originally posted by John Holding:
As I post, it's two hours to midnight GMT.

ALmost there, people, almost there.

John Holding
Purgatory Host

One hour, actually, but I'm sure that somebody will make use of your generosity!

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Ht

Come let us sing of a wonderful love (1933 MHB No 314)

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RooK

1 of 6
# 1852

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I can't believe I voluntarily read this whole thing. Clearly, I have too much time to waste.
Posts: 15274 | From: Portland, Oregon, USA, Earth | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
[QUOTE]I heard the name of Newt being thrown around. Now that's a blast from the past [Eek!] .
Charlotte

Yea, nominating an old, washed up, white guy worked so well for them this time.
[Disappointed]
Good-bye, thread -- how long till 'The political junkie POTUS 2012 prediction thread' is started? (I think the first Primaries are in about six months...)

Wellllll, Huckabee's on a "book tour" in Iowa.

I live in Fundraising Central so I'll keep my ears open for trips. But, yeah, talking about it at this point is kind of silly.

Charlotte

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003  |  IP: Logged
Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
# 6855

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And the winner is...Bede's American Successor who was the first to mention Obama without H. Clinton on Nov. 9, 2007::
quote:
Obama can connect on that deeply personal level. He honed that skill doing street-level politics in Chicago.



[ 09. November 2008, 22:29: Message edited by: Gort ]

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--Formerly: Gort--

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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I thought we had another post-election shout-out about "Ron Paul is the man!!1!" as well to square the circle from the other side, but that was on another thread [Biased] .

Well done, Bede!

Charlotte

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003  |  IP: Logged
Clint Boggis
Shipmate
# 633

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I've followed a lot of this thread and found it very informative and entertaining.

Thanks everyone here and to US voters: thanks!

I'm really looking forward to see Obama's America.

Posts: 1505 | From: south coast | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
# 2832

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It's only fitting that the thread should end just after Sarah Palin has been tagged and released back into the wild.
Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by 206:
You know you want to feed your addiction, and the doctor is in.
[From the OP]

... to administer "cold turkey" until the next time. Thanks to all for a memorable thread about a memorable series of events.

This thread is now closing as Big Ben strikes on the radio.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged



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