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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: the future of the church
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PaulBC
Shipmate
# 13712
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Posted
The furture of the church is good. Its growing and even in the 1st world decline is not as grim as some people hav thought.
It all hangs on what we believe . And if we believe in the ressurrection we know the fuuture is great .And that says for the church your future is going to be great .
So quit getting bent out of shape over the future of the church . We have outlasted many
attempts to terminate the church. So be of good
great cheer. ![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif) ![[Angel]](graemlins/angel.gif) ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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"He has told you O mortal,what is good;and what does the Lord require of youbut to do justice and to love kindness ,and to walk humbly with your God."Micah 6:8
Posts: 873 | From: Victoria B.C. Canada | Registered: May 2008
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HCH
Shipmate
# 14313
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Posted
Is there a topic here for discussion?
Posts: 1540 | From: Illinois, USA | Registered: Nov 2008
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Mudfrog
Shipmate
# 8116
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Posted
Yes there is, if someone wants to disagree with the OP or say why they do agree.
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"The point of having an open mind, like having an open mouth, is to close it on something solid."
G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 8237 | From: North Yorkshire, UK | Registered: Jul 2004
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
Well, I guess I'll make a few predictions about the future of the church in the next 40-50 years, at least in the US.
The Catholic Church will grow slightly, becoming increasingly brown and blue-collar. It will still have not changed its teaching on Dead Horses.
The Evangelicals will decline in numbers and influence (having peaked in both sometime around the middle of the last decade). They are in 2012 where Mainline Protestantism was around 1970, and will be where the Mainline is today in a few decades.
The Eastern Orthodox will receive a surprising number of former Evangelical converts.
The Mainline Protestants, bleeding numbers, money, and influence, will attempt a Untied Church of Canada type merger in this period to save themselves from extinction and/or fiscal bankruptcy.
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In the Latin south the enemies of Christianity often make their position clear by burning a church. In the Anglo-Saxon countries, we don't burn churches; we empty them. --Arnold Lunn, The Third Day
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
and the megachurches that provide entertainment rather than substance will have faded just as the Toronto Movement did.
But the number of unchurched will not have decreased because the churches will still not be addressing their concerns.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
quote:
and the megachurches that provide entertainment rather than substance will have faded just as the Toronto Movement did.
Perhaps. Personally, I think they'll still be around, but increasingly abandon even nominal Christian terms and symbols, turning into nothing but weekly self-help seminars based around a cult of personality and a vague, idiot "spirituality". Heck, Joel Osteen is just about there.
[ 22. July 2012, 21:13: Message edited by: Unreformed ]
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In the Latin south the enemies of Christianity often make their position clear by burning a church. In the Anglo-Saxon countries, we don't burn churches; we empty them. --Arnold Lunn, The Third Day
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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Hawk
Semi-social raptor
# 14289
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Posted
I think worldwide I'd put my my money on the exact opposite of your predictions Unreformed. Evangelicalism looks to be on the rise, from being predominantly a US homegrown product, to becoming a worldwide phenomenon.
The mainstream denominations look like they're in the process of cutting their sails to a new wind. It's taking an embarrassingly but not unsurprisingly long time to do so, and at the moment they give the impression that they are becalmed and flapping in the breeze, but once they've sorted themselves out they'll be able to take advantage of the dearth of spirituality in the modern world. People are currently being told that the material is all that matters, but the trend of society will soon swing back as people become desperate for something to fulfill their spiritual needs. It seems to be a pattern of history, a period of rational materialism and general ridiculing of traditional faith, then a period of spiritual revival and renewal.
Catholicism on the other hand looks like its on its last legs. Attacked on all sides, its only USP is its historical Authority, and this has been cut out from under it. Unlike Anglicanism, it is unable to reset its sails, they are nailed in place.
I think some megachurches will fade away but others I suspect will mature into cathedrals of the new evangelical religion.
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“We are to find God in what we know, not in what we don't know." Dietrich Bonhoeffer
See my blog for 'interesting' thoughts
Posts: 1739 | From: Oxford, UK | Registered: Nov 2008
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Evangelicalism looks to be on the rise, from being predominantly a US homegrown product, to becoming a worldwide phenomenon.
Evangelicalism worldwide, at least in its Pentecostal form certainly is on the rise, but it's beginning to wane in the US. It doesn't look that bad right now but it didn't look all that bad for Mainline Protestantism in 1970s. Even the mighty Southern Baptist Convention is beginning to lose members.
quote:
People are currently being told that the material is all that matters, but the trend of society will soon swing back as people become desperate for something to fulfill their spiritual needs.
Now THIS I most certainly agree with. But I'd like to know why you think such people will turn to the denominations that have purposely done their best to ape the attitudes and values of secular society, albeit trying to shoehorn them into Christian creeds and symbols.
I'll also add that, sadly, I'm not sure a religious revival will necessarily be a Christian one this time, especially in Europe. It could very well be syncretic neo-paganism (already starting with the popular phrase "spiritual, but not religious") or even Islam.
As to your point about the Catholic Church, I'd really like to know where you draw that conclusion from. IIRC, the only place its declining is Europe.
With respect to Anglicanism, barring a miracle the Anglican Communion is going to have a big, global crack-up sooner rather than later, along several fault lines. Anglicanism is an expired political compromise trying to hold together several disparate and irreconcilable threads. And I'm not just talking about Dead Horses, either.
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In the Latin south the enemies of Christianity often make their position clear by burning a church. In the Anglo-Saxon countries, we don't burn churches; we empty them. --Arnold Lunn, The Third Day
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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South Coast Kevin
Shipmate
# 16130
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
I'll also add that, sadly, I'm not sure a religious revival will necessarily be a Christian one this time, especially in Europe. It could very well be syncretic neo-paganism (already starting with the popular phrase "spiritual, but not religious") or even Islam.
I have a more hopeful (from the Christian perspective) take on the 'spiritual but not religious' trend. I wonder if people are still spiritually inclined, maybe more so given the economic conditions that western governments are struggling with.
It's just that people are less inclined to turn to religious institutions for their spiritual fulfilment. Hence, I think there could be a big future for the emerging / organic Christianity movement, which downplays the role and importance of institutions and focuses much more on being church in the context of existing community relationships.
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My blog - wondering about Christianity in the 21st century, chess, music, politics and other bits and bobs.
Posts: 3309 | From: The south coast (of England) | Registered: Jan 2011
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Ender's Shadow
Shipmate
# 2272
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
As to your point about the Catholic Church, I'd really like to know where you draw that conclusion from. IIRC, the only place its declining is Europe.
Given that Rome has lost Europe, and is in the process of losing Brazil and probably other parts of Latin America to Pentecostals, it seems it's mostly in big trouble...
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Test everything. Hold on to the good.
Please don't refer to me as 'Ender' - the whole point of Ender's Shadow is that he isn't Ender.
Posts: 5018 | From: Manchester, England | Registered: Feb 2002
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Mark Betts
Ship's Navigation Light
# 17074
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulBC:
The furture of the church is good. Its growing and even in the 1st world decline is not as grim as some people hav thought.
It all hangs on what we believe . And if we believe in the ressurrection we know the fuuture is great .And that says for the church your future is going to be great .
So quit getting bent out of shape over the future of the church . We have outlasted many
attempts to terminate the church. So be of good
great cheer.
Thanks for that PaulBC. Now let me throw a spanner in the works.. ![[Eek!]](eek.gif) Not that I disagree with you on anything, but the truth is that the Church can never decline - because it doesn't just consist of those who presently live and keep the Faith, but also of those who have died in the Faith (the Church Triumphant).
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"We are not some casual and meaningless product of evolution. Each of us is the result of a thought of God. Each of us is willed, each of us is loved, each of us is necessary."
Posts: 2080 | From: Leicester | Registered: Apr 2012
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PaulBC
Shipmate
# 13712
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Betts:
quote:
Originally posted by PaulBC:
The furture of the church is good. Its growing and even in the 1st world decline is not as grim as some people hav thought.
It all hangs on what we believe . And if we believe in the ressurrection we know the fuuture is great .And that says for the church your future is going to be great .
So quit getting bent out of shape over the future of the church . We have outlasted many
attempts to terminate the church. So be of good
great cheer.
Thanks for that PaulBC. Now let me throw a spanner in the works.. Not that I disagree with you on anything, but the truth is that the Church can never decline - because it doesn't just consist of those who presently live and keep the Faith, but also of those who have died in the Faith (the Church Triumphant).
Mark Betts;
You aren't throwing a spanner in the works. You just make a very valid point that
the church is not we the current faithful but all our predecessors and those who will follow us .Does give one a sense of hope.
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"He has told you O mortal,what is good;and what does the Lord require of youbut to do justice and to love kindness ,and to walk humbly with your God."Micah 6:8
Posts: 873 | From: Victoria B.C. Canada | Registered: May 2008
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
That may be so on some philosophical level, but it doesn't relate to the significant amount of dechurching that is still going on.
If there are fewer live people taking part in "church" , then "church" will be a visibly smaller entity, with less political and spiritual clout. A church of dead people would necessarily be a dead church to the rest of us, just as there are dead languages. Preserved in the museum sense, maybe, but irrelevant.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
quote:
That may be so on some philosophical level, but it doesn't relate to the significant amount of dechurching that is still going on.
Should be qualified by in the West. Certainly that's not true worldwide.
Anyway, HorsemanBree, I hear you talk about this a lot, what exactly is your solution?
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In the Latin south the enemies of Christianity often make their position clear by burning a church. In the Anglo-Saxon countries, we don't burn churches; we empty them. --Arnold Lunn, The Third Day
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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Triple Tiara
Ship's Papabile
# 9556
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Catholicism on the other hand looks like its on its last legs. Attacked on all sides, its only USP is its historical Authority, and this has been cut out from under it. Unlike Anglicanism, it is unable to reset its sails, they are nailed in place.
yeah, yeah, yeah. ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Given that Rome has lost Europe, and is in the process of losing Brazil and probably other parts of Latin America to Pentecostals, it seems it's mostly in big trouble...
yeah, yeah, yeah
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I'm a Roman. You may call me Caligula.
Posts: 5905 | From: London, England | Registered: May 2005
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
Ecumenism. Mergers. Sharing.
Around here, Anglicans are buddies with Lutherans and Roman Catholics. Mennonites and United Church of Canada (1925 merger of Presbyterians, Congregationalists and Methodists) is also in the mix, but a little further away.
I expect that history of denominations will continue to make less and less difference, at least in places where the roots are shallow about old world culture.
Church authority, bishops and popes and all the rest, seems to mean rather little, particularly when people of conscience are involved.
The only problem I see with all of this on a personal note is the western Canadian tendency to have music devolve in country gospel and annoying all purpose hymns like Amazing Grace, On Eagles Wings and Shine Jesus Shine.
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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the giant cheeseburger
Shipmate
# 10942
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
quote:
That may be so on some philosophical level, but it doesn't relate to the significant amount of dechurching that is still going on.
Should be qualified by in the West. Certainly that's not true worldwide.
I think this is a good point to remember. I don't think certain denominations declining in the West will be replaced by different factions of those same denominations, the future centre of the Church is in the East.
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If I give a homeopathy advocate a really huge punch in the face, can the injury be cured by giving them another really small punch in the face?
Posts: 4834 | From: Adelaide, South Australia. | Registered: Jan 2006
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by the giant cheeseburger:
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
quote:
That may be so on some philosophical level, but it doesn't relate to the significant amount of dechurching that is still going on.
Should be qualified by in the West. Certainly that's not true worldwide.
I think this is a good point to remember. I don't think certain denominations declining in the West will be replaced by different factions of those same denominations, the future centre of the Church is in the East.
Not nitpicking here, but don't you mean South? Or are you actually saying Eastern Orthodoxy is the future?
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In the Latin south the enemies of Christianity often make their position clear by burning a church. In the Anglo-Saxon countries, we don't burn churches; we empty them. --Arnold Lunn, The Third Day
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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the giant cheeseburger
Shipmate
# 10942
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
quote:
Originally posted by the giant cheeseburger:
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
quote:
That may be so on some philosophical level, but it doesn't relate to the significant amount of dechurching that is still going on.
Should be qualified by in the West. Certainly that's not true worldwide.
I think this is a good point to remember. I don't think certain denominations declining in the West will be replaced by different factions of those same denominations, the future centre of the Church is in the East.
Not nitpicking here, but don't you mean South? Or are you actually saying Eastern Orthodoxy is the future?
No, I don't mean South and I don't mean Eastern Orthodoxy either.
I'm talking about Asia.
[ 23. July 2012, 03:10: Message edited by: the giant cheeseburger ]
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If I give a homeopathy advocate a really huge punch in the face, can the injury be cured by giving them another really small punch in the face?
Posts: 4834 | From: Adelaide, South Australia. | Registered: Jan 2006
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Ender's Shadow: Given that Rome has lost Europe, and is in the process of losing Brazil and probably other parts of Latin America to Pentecostals, it seems it's mostly in big trouble...
My impression is that Pentecostalism is over its peak in Brazil. It grew exponentially in the eighties and the nineties, mostly fuelled by the exodus from the countryside to the favelas in the cities. But that's over, and people in the favelas have much more choices in their lives now.
Many times when I pass by a big Pentecostal church, I just see 5 middle-aged ladies singing out of tune. Pentecostalism is still big in Brazil of course, but they're nowhere near their growth numbers of 20 years ago. I don't see them pushing over Catholicism anytime soon.
Brazilian-style Pentecostalism is still on the rise in Africa though, in my view much more than that coming from the US. Not only in Portuguese speaking countries, wherever I go in Africa, I seem to meet Brazilian missionaries everywhere.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Ramarius
Shipmate
# 16551
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Ender's Shadow: Given that Rome has lost Europe, and is in the process of losing Brazil and probably other parts of Latin America to Pentecostals, it seems it's mostly in big trouble...
My impression is that Pentecostalism is over its peak in Brazil.
In fact, it's still on the rise
Posts: 950 | From: Virtually anywhere | Registered: Jul 2011
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Ramarius:In fact, it's still on the rise
To be honest, I'm a bit sceptical about these numbers. Religion is something very fluid for Brazilians, they often switch between religions and not rarely have two or three at the same time. Ticking a box in an IBGE census doesn't always have to mean that they're active in an evangelical church.
It would really surprise me if these numbers would reflect reality. I'd believe them 15 years ago, but they really don't reflect what I see in society: empty churches, people leaving evangelical groups, declining influence in society...
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Hawk
Semi-social raptor
# 14289
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
I'll also add that, sadly, I'm not sure a religious revival will necessarily be a Christian one this time, especially in Europe. It could very well be syncretic neo-paganism (already starting with the popular phrase "spiritual, but not religious") or even Islam.
Well I'm obviously biased but I don't think either of those can offer the same level of truth, and fulfil the need for a deep, redemptive and meaningful relationship with the infinite that Christianity does. IMO Neo-paganism is a mish-mash of modern thought and symbolism pretending to use ancient imagery. It's part of the problem with the lack of true spirituality in the modern world, not the solution.
Islam may stand more of a chance as it is more legalistic than Christianity and is well placed to catch people on the rebound from the anything-goes culture who want some certainty and overt sense of traditional morality in their lives. This has been lost from much of day-to-day Western Christianity and its draw is very powerful. However, I suspect this will be of limited effect overall. The problems with Islam run deep, and since historically its main means of converting large numbers was by warfare, or family ties, its ability to evangelise in other ways hasn't been fully developed, both theologically and practically. Globalisation will destroy family ties, and there is no international acceptance of religious war any more.
Evangelising by preaching and discipling individuals en masse has been Christianity's modus operandi since its inception though and we've got pretty good at it, and still have all the organisational structures, theology and teachings, and centuries of experience in place, ready to reap the harvest when the time comes.
quote:
Originally posted by Unreformed:
With respect to Anglicanism, barring a miracle the Anglican Communion is going to have a big, global crack-up sooner rather than later, along several fault lines. Anglicanism is an expired political compromise trying to hold together several disparate and irreconcilable threads. And I'm not just talking about Dead Horses, either.
That's always been the case though, since it was founded. I can't see that the current fault-lines are any worse, or likely to finally knock it over than the ones it survived before.
quote:
Originally posted by Triple Tiara:
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Catholicism on the other hand looks like its on its last legs. Attacked on all sides, its only USP is its historical Authority, and this has been cut out from under it. Unlike Anglicanism, it is unable to reset its sails, they are nailed in place.
yeah, yeah, yeah.
Bread and circuses.
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“We are to find God in what we know, not in what we don't know." Dietrich Bonhoeffer
See my blog for 'interesting' thoughts
Posts: 1739 | From: Oxford, UK | Registered: Nov 2008
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Sir Pellinore
Quester Emeritus
# 12163
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Posted
I think Hawk is wrong about the Roman Catholic Church. There are certainly areas where it appears to be in trouble, especially parts of Western Europe, but there are others, such as India; parts of Africa and the Philipines where it is alive and thriving and even sending priests to the West to replace older clergy there.
The Anglophone countries: the UK; USA; Anglophone Canada; Australia and New Zealand seem to be going through a process of change, which, if the laity; local hierarchy; clerics and nuns and the Vatican can meet on common ground and speak the same vocabulary, could lead to a real revival.
The Anglican Communion is going through a catharsis; de facto schism and regional realignment. Certain Provinces are growing. Others are shrinking. It seems to be growing most outside the "ethnically Anglican" enclaves.
I know less about Evangelicals and Pentecostals. Ditto Lutherans; Reformed; Methodists et sim.
I wish gorpo were around because he could round out Le Roc's rather interesting comments on Brazil. My understanding is that much which passes for "Catholicism" in Brazil is an eclectic mixture of that and Voodoo. Not really "official" Catholicism.
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Well...
Posts: 5108 | From: The Deep North, Oz | Registered: Dec 2006
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Sir Pellinore (ret'd): My understanding is that much which passes for "Catholicism" in Brazil is an eclectic mixture of that and Voodoo. Not really "official" Catholicism.
No, I wouldn't say that. There are a number of Brazilians who are being syncretic and who mix their Catholicism with Umbanda and Candomblé, but I'd say they're a minority.
My experience is that Brazilian Catholics are a mixed bunch. There is a lot of folk devotion to certain Saints, there are still a number of Liberation Theology base groups, there are certainly a lot of nominal Catholics who don't go to Mass much, and there are those who are more or less MotR but will sing a lot of evangelical songs. It's very much a mixed picture.
quote:
Sir Pellinore (ret'd): I wish gorpo were around because he could round out Le Roc's rather interesting comments on Brazil.
Yes, I'd like that!
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
Unreformed: I don't have a solution. I'm not in a position to exercise my authority as the Expert on Everything, or the One Who Has The Answer.
I'm simply observing the decline of "church" at the local level, which is, yes, in the "west".
But I do see the decline in the "west" as related to the triumphant certainty of the 1950's that the church was going to grow continuously by claiming authority rather than by being Christian, and by being "church" as a place that people would want to come to.
Oddly enough, I can trace the decline of Anglicanism to the insistence on outward shows such as "women must wear hats while in church, even when vacuuming" and confirmation as "something that is done to you" which led to people just getting tired of the whole thing, or people just wandering away because it didn't matter.
I see the same thing in the churches that insist that the exact right way of waving your hands in the air while singing a praise song matters more than the theological underpinnings of what it means to be Christian, or the insistence that the exact theological understanding, and expression of that understanding, that worked for the people of 912 is going to work for the people of 2012.
Just as the almost-violent defense of Seven-24hr-Day Creationism or the refusal to see women as equals, or gays as merely human, makes sure that large numbers of people will see the church as actively nasty, not just irrelevant.
I personally don't think that "Well, My church is the only way to go" is going to work in a world that clearly has many churches/other religious organisations that have worked well for centuries. Simple authority is not going to build a community that works (except, of course, by force - but we all have seen how well that worked with faiths like Communism or is working with some present-day religious organisations)
When I talk to a pleasant guitar-strumming girl who says that her friends ask her "How can you be Christian? You're too nice.", I wonder just how long the church has.
But YMMV, since your locale is different from mine. Just don't prescribe for me how things are where I am.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Sir Pellinore
Quester Emeritus
# 12163
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Posted
Thanks Le Roc.
You don't know what happened to gorpo, do you?
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Well...
Posts: 5108 | From: The Deep North, Oz | Registered: Dec 2006
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Mark Betts
Ship's Navigation Light
# 17074
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
To be honest, I'm a bit sceptical about these numbers.
I'm a bit sceptical about all statitics which have to do with religious adherence.
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"We are not some casual and meaningless product of evolution. Each of us is the result of a thought of God. Each of us is willed, each of us is loved, each of us is necessary."
Posts: 2080 | From: Leicester | Registered: Apr 2012
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Sir Pellinore (ret'd):You don't know what happened to gorpo, do you?
No, I'm sorry. I had some PM contact with him in the beginning, but he actually lives 2000 miles from where I live in Brazil. His last posts were in June, so he might come back.
I think we used to have another Brazilian Shipmate, but I forgot his/her screen name.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Sir Pellinore
Quester Emeritus
# 12163
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Posted
I was under the impression he was somewhere like Santa Catarina, or even further south, whilst you were up in the north.
Lovely guy. I hope my humour, or attempt at it, didn't put him off.
Anglophones often don't realize what a huge, powerful, industrialised and varied country Brasil is. I think you were from the Netherlands originally, so the difference to Europe would certainly have struck you.
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Well...
Posts: 5108 | From: The Deep North, Oz | Registered: Dec 2006
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SvitlanaV2
Shipmate
# 16967
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Islam may stand more of a chance as it is more legalistic than Christianity and is well placed to catch people on the rebound from the anything-goes culture who want some certainty and overt sense of traditional morality in their lives. This has been lost from much of day-to-day Western Christianity and its draw is very powerful. However, I suspect this will be of limited effect overall. The problems with Islam run deep, and since historically its main means of converting large numbers was by warfare, or family ties, its ability to evangelise in other ways hasn't been fully developed, both theologically and practically. Globalisation will destroy family ties, and there is no international acceptance of religious war any more.
People who posit the rise of Islam in Europe usually assert that this will happen for demographic reasons. I.e., immigration and larger families among Muslims will increase the influence of Islam, whereas the indigenous 'Christian' populations are ageing, and not having many children.
quote:
Evangelising by preaching and discipling individuals en masse has been Christianity's modus operandi since its inception though and we've got pretty good at it, and still have all the organisational structures, theology and teachings, and centuries of experience in place, ready to reap the harvest when the time comes.
I can't agree with this, really. I don't think the church is 'pretty good' at evangelism or 'disipling individuals en masse', and I don't think that current 'organisational structures', or 'centuries of experience' would be much use. If a revival started tomorrow, I doubt that our churches would know what to do. What normally seems to happen is that a bunch of new denominations spring up because the old ones can't cope with what's happening. (In time, some of the converts or their children might drift back to the historical churches, though.)
In Western Europe the historical churches are in maintainance mode, and in fact, they're often in the process of managing decline. (Newer churches have problems too - they're small, and our secular society mostly ignores them rather than seeing them as a threat.) It's hard to imagine that these institutions would be able to benefit significantly from a revivalistic era. Indeed, they might see such a thing as a threat.
Posts: 6668 | From: UK | Registered: Feb 2012
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Sir Pellinore (ret'd): Anglophones often don't realize what a huge, powerful, industrialised and varied country Brasil is. I think you were from the Netherlands originally, so the difference to Europe would certainly have struck you.
Definitely. I've been living on-and-off in Brazil for 20 years now, having stayed there for around 10 years in total. What doesn't fail to surprise me are the big changes in Brazilian society in such a short time in so many areas. Sometimes for the good, sometimes for the bad.
Going back to the OP, in the nineties you could actually see the Evangelical churches growing before your eyes. New churches opening everywhere, people converting, loud presence on the streets and in the media. I'm not seeing a lot of that now. Like I said: I see mostly empty churches and people leaving (quite often because they're fed up with titheing). If the Evengalicals had really grown more than 60% in the noughts, I would have noticed it.
I don't really have a horse in this race since I'm neither Catholic nor Evangelical, but I've been looking into Brazilian blogs just now. Evangelical blogs are jubilant of course, and congrulations to them. But if I were them I'd also be thinking in the back of my mind: are these numbers real?
Most Catholic and neutral blogs are more sceptical about it. They suspect that there are a lot of 'nominal Evangelicals' right now, who'll tick the box in a survey but don't actually go to church. Just like there have always been a lot of nominal Catholics.
Another thing is that Evangelical numbers are especially rising in the North region of Brazil. I don't know this region very well (I live in the North-East; it's still a bit of a distance), but it's lagging a bit behind the rest of Brazil in the recent economical boom. That might be part of the explanation.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
If the views described in this blog post by Fred Clark over at Slacktivist are at all true, then the church has no future in America.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Triple Tiara
Ship's Papabile
# 9556
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
quote:
Originally posted by Triple Tiara:
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Catholicism on the other hand looks like its on its last legs. Attacked on all sides, its only USP is its historical Authority, and this has been cut out from under it. Unlike Anglicanism, it is unable to reset its sails, they are nailed in place.
yeah, yeah, yeah.
Bread and circuses.
If that suits your way of thinking, please yourself.
Anyone who has had any experience of these "bread and circuses" however will tell a different story. The fact that young people from around the globe, at considerable cost to themselves gather in vast numbers for a vibrant celebration of faith, and carry that vibrancy back to their home countries tells a different story. Your prediction of terminal decline is simply confounded by the energy and commitment of the next generation of Catholics. And, as it happens, in total contradiction to analyses such as yours, these young people have a very firm commitment to the "historical Authority" of the Catholic Church. It perplexes (and annoys) the liberal voices within the Catholic Church as well.
Bread and circuses to your cynical eye, something very different to those who actually are involved.
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I'm a Roman. You may call me Caligula.
Posts: 5905 | From: London, England | Registered: May 2005
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Barefoot Friar
Ship's Shoeless Brother
# 13100
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Posted
I think that the Church does have a future. However, I think that several things are going to have to happen.
First, I believe that the Church has got to get off her arse and get to work. People don't give a hoody-doot what we say, because words are cheap and they think most Christians are lying anyway. What speaks is action (like the girl that Horseman Bree mentioned). We're going to have to become more missional. I see this beginning already, and the momentum is building. But it's going to take more for it to really begin making a difference.
This should come as no surprise; Jesus told us point blank to take care of those who are in need -- not if we feel like it, or not if we happen to have a few extra dollars or some guilt to work off, but every single day as a condition to being a disciple.
Second, we have got to stop being so angry at each other and we definitely have to stop flinging poo at each other. People read the reports and especially Twitter feeds and Facebook posts of our meetings (like the UMC General Conference a few weeks ago) and see that we're having a big fight over something they think is largely pointless and write us off. That's not to say that we cannot have differing opinions or be passionate about our causes. But when we resort to language and tone that breaks each other down rather than building each other up, and when we stage protests and disrupt proceedings because we didn't get our way, we're going to find ourselves in trouble.
Third, we have to learn how to extend grace while remaining faithful to Scripture. If, for instance, we decide that homosexuality is not good and that it goes against the Bible, then how do we reconcile that belief with our directive to love everyone the same way that Jesus loves us? How do we learn to show love to someone who is doing something that is contrary to our beliefs, and extend God's grace to them? And further, if we're in the opposite camp (for our example, we believe that homosexuality is good), then we have to learn how to extend grace to those who do not believe as we do (see number 2, above). I may believe that women should be ordained bishops, but if you do not and I treat you like dirt because of it, then how is that any better? Where has Christ's love been shown?
The Church is seen as irrelevant and hypocritical. Perhaps that has something to do with ways of ministry in the modern age, specifically in the 19th and 20th centuries. Perhaps it has to do with the fact that we say we change lives for the better, and therefore people expect more from us, but being human beings we make mistakes. Maybe we've been a bit too full of ourselves. Maybe we haven't put enough action with words. After all, the Kingdom of God is proclamation and demonstration. Jesus proclaimed the kingdom was coming, but then he went and demonstrated it by doing the miracles that identified him as the Messiah to the Jews (Luke 7:18-23, et. al.)
"They will know you are Christians by your love."
Only now they know it by our hate. When are we going to do what Jesus said?
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Do your little bit of good where you are; its those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world. -- Desmond Tutu
Posts: 1621 | From: Warrior Mountains | Registered: Oct 2007
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
I do not know if my Caminoholic activity of walking on the French and Spanish pilgrimage routes is of any use in this discussion, but it might go to underline what Triple T said. Young people are not looking for anything that is easy-- there is a search for counter-culturality from a deep sense that there is much wrong with western society, there is a yearning for transcendence, and a feeling that it is not supposed to be easy. Without anyone having told them so, they understand that it is supposed to be tough.
For some reason I am repeatedly being dragged into focus groups on outreach etc and find that my advice that young people (by which it is usually meant anyone under 40) are not looking for somewhere/services where they can be comfortable-- they want to be challenged.
It might be that, like the Mesopotamian and Persian churches, the western churches will disappear or become vestigial. In the grand scheme of things, that might not matter, as churches will flourish elsewhere. We were told that the gates of hell would not prevail, not that the Diocese of X would have a balanced budget and a fulfilling and comprehensive programme of activities.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Augustine the Aleut: I do not know if my Caminoholic activity of walking on the French and Spanish pilgrimage routes is of any use in this discussion, but it might go to underline what Triple T said.
But I'd venture that the majority of them aren't into following strict rules.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Augustine the Aleut: I do not know if my Caminoholic activity of walking on the French and Spanish pilgrimage routes is of any use in this discussion, but it might go to underline what Triple T said.
But I'd venture that the majority of them aren't into following strict rules.
From my knowledge of the younger pilgrims, they devise their own strict rules (not mine!) on asceticism in places to stay and what to eat (lasciviousness is curbed by exhaustion and sharing quarters with 20 people). The focus is more on changing what they are or, more precisely, finding out that they have been changed. I'm not sure that they think of it in terms of following strict rules and I suspect that this might be so of Triple T's young folk. Thinking of strict rules might be more of an external observer's perception.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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trouty
Shipmate
# 13497
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Posted
I'd like to think that the kiddie-fiddlers that the RC church has protected for years will be behind bars. And I'd like to think that those who have protected them, from the Pope downwards, will be in the same place.
I hoppe that the RC church and the wacko evos will decline and that mainstream liberal protestantism will rise. this is what I hope but doubt it is what we will get. Ditto for the kiddie-fiddlers.
Posts: 205 | From: Somewhere out there | Registered: Mar 2008
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South Coast Kevin
Shipmate
# 16130
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Padre Joshua:
"They will know you are Christians by your love."
Only now they know it by our hate. When are we going to do what Jesus said?
Quite so, Padre Joshua, and what a challenge this is... I'm sure all of us do have stories of Christians showing love to others, but I guess they tend to get less media attention than all the scandals, infighting etc. Not so newsworthy!
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My blog - wondering about Christianity in the 21st century, chess, music, politics and other bits and bobs.
Posts: 3309 | From: The south coast (of England) | Registered: Jan 2011
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Ramarius
Shipmate
# 16551
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Posted
Philip Jenkins The Next Christendom (revised edition 2007) makes the link between wider demographic change and the growth of Christianity. He makes the link between those nations that are growing fastest in absolute terms, and their currently large, and growing, Christians populations. He compares these to previous centres of Christendom (particularly Europe) where atheism is on the rise, and are facing significant population shrinkage. In 2000 the combined populations of the eight most populous European states was around 535 million. By 2025 this is projected to decline to around 519 million, a decline projected to accelerate significantly by mid-century to around 465 million - a 13% reduction.
In order to keep population stable, it needs a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Of the 23 countries reporting fertility rates lower than 1.5, all but three are European.
Conversely, the southern hemisphere is experiencing a population boom. In 2000 the combined population of the eight largest nations in sub-Saharan Africa numbered around 400 million. By 2050 this will rise substantially, even with the impact of AIDS and could exceed a billion. The same is true for Asia and, in particular, South America. Mexico, for example, grew from 15 million people in 1900 to around 100 million by 2000. Whilst this phenomenal growth is slowing, it is still significantly faster than Europe. Jenkins suggests that between 2000 and 2050, population growth in the eight largest Latin American nations will be around 40%. European nations are getting older (proportion of people 65+ is around 16 -18%), whilst Southern Hemisphere nations are significantly younger (3-4% 65+, with median age under 20, compared to European median ages in their late 30's and rising).
Obviously it's easier to project where people will live in 50 years time than to predict what they will believe. But if past and current trends continue, Christianity will continue to grow among expanding populations. Uganda is projected to be in the top 25 most populous nations by 2050. Its population has grown from 11 million in 1975, to 23 million in 2000, and is projected to rise to 33 million by 2025 and 65 million (overtaking the UK) by 2050. In 2007, around 40% of the population was Protestant, 35% Catholic, and 10% Muslim. Around 85% of the population of the Philippines identify themselves as Christian. Assuming this proportion remains the same, the numbers of Christians will rise with the overall population - currently around 90 million, projected to rise to around 150 million by 2050. There is a similar picture in Brazil where around 90% of the population self-identify as Christians. Population growth here is from 53 million in 1950, to 190 million today, to around 207 million in 2050. It also interested my that in 2001, 37% of all Catholic baptisms in Africa were of adults, showing that conversion was a positive choice (John L Allen "Faith, Hope, and Heroes" NCR Feb 23 2001.) Other examples of denominational growth include Lutherans (9% increase in Africa between 2001 and 2003) and Anglicans (five million in Nigeria in the 1970s, 20 million today, perhaps 35 million by 2025).
The ageing European population will increasingly require young immigrants to fill job vacancies which could both increase the numbers of Christians as they bring their faith, and expand Christianity further as they share their faith. Whilst they could, of course, become secularised in Europe, current trends suggest otherwise with evidence of increased church membership in the UK, for example, in churches as diverse as Black Pentecostals and Orthodox.
Lots to discuss in the detail of all this. But the mega trend, and essential thesis looks sound to me.
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Posts: 950 | From: Virtually anywhere | Registered: Jul 2011
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Mark Betts
Ship's Navigation Light
# 17074
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Posted
Certainly Padre Joshua is onto something when he speaks of us being angry with each other, instead of extending grace to those whom we disagree with. But what should we do? Agree to disagree? Whitewash over the whole thing, and just presume we are somehow in agreement when we are not? Not talk about our differences as if they didn't exist?
Jesus prayed that we should all be one, not that we should learn to live with our differences. If you talk to the man in the street about christianity, he will answer "...but which denomination is the right one?" What a shame we can't just talk about christianity and everyone understand what we mean.
But amongst the 10s of thousands of christian denominations, we can't even agree how to define the church, nor what it's mission to the world is. That's before we think about Salvation, sacraments and doctrine. Even in the Orthodox Church, although we don't have the aforementioned problems, unity and harmony aren't always what they should be, especially when you have all the different jurisdictions which we have in the UK - and we know this has done much damage to the potential of Orthodox growth over here.
So I don't think it's just about wearing a mask of amiability, and pretending to like everyone we disagree with. Ultimately it has to be about Unity - "that they may be one, as the Father and I are one", said Jesus.
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"We are not some casual and meaningless product of evolution. Each of us is the result of a thought of God. Each of us is willed, each of us is loved, each of us is necessary."
Posts: 2080 | From: Leicester | Registered: Apr 2012
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Ramarius: There is a similar picture in Brazil where around 90% of the population self-identify as Christians. Population growth here is from 53 million in 1950, to 190 million today, to around 207 million in 2050.
But from 190 to 207 million isn't that big a growth.
If there's one thing that impresses me in Brazil it's the rapid change of demographics. For someone in their forties it's quite normal to have 8 or 9 brothers and sisters, but often someone in their twenties has only 1 or 2. I don't think that the decline in Europe went that swiftly.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
Without anyone having told them so, they understand that it is supposed to be tough.
Is it? Since when?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
Here and here some articles about Brazil's rapidly falling birth rates. It seems to be something unprecedented that this is happening so fast, and surely this will have consequences for society. Europe already is struggling to adapt to this, I'm guessing that in the future it will be much harder for Brazil.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Mark Betts
Ship's Navigation Light
# 17074
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
I do not know if my Caminoholic activity of walking on the French and Spanish pilgrimage routes is of any use in this discussion, but it might go to underline what Triple T said. Young people are not looking for anything that is easy-- there is a search for counter-culturality from a deep sense that there is much wrong with western society, there is a yearning for transcendence, and a feeling that it is not supposed to be easy. Without anyone having told them so, they understand that it is supposed to be tough.
For some reason I am repeatedly being dragged into focus groups on outreach etc and find that my advice that young people (by which it is usually meant anyone under 40) are not looking for somewhere/services where they can be comfortable-- they want to be challenged.
It might be that, like the Mesopotamian and Persian churches, the western churches will disappear or become vestigial. In the grand scheme of things, that might not matter, as churches will flourish elsewhere. We were told that the gates of hell would not prevail, not that the Diocese of X would have a balanced budget and a fulfilling and comprehensive programme of activities.
This sounds very encouraging Augustine the Aleut - it is a shame I never knew about these young people in my youth. ![[Frown]](frown.gif) Then again, my attitude would have been different, and I would probably have shunned them (in my youthful folly).
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"We are not some casual and meaningless product of evolution. Each of us is the result of a thought of God. Each of us is willed, each of us is loved, each of us is necessary."
Posts: 2080 | From: Leicester | Registered: Apr 2012
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Freddy
Shipmate
# 365
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
Young people are not looking for anything that is easy-- there is a search for counter-culturality from a deep sense that there is much wrong with western society, there is a yearning for transcendence, and a feeling that it is not supposed to be easy.
Great comment. I have found this to be true of young people here in my church in the USA. They are thrilled to be sent to Africa, Asia or South America to do things they see as worthwhile, even if they are quite challenging. I remember feeling that way myself.
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
It might be that, like the Mesopotamian and Persian churches, the western churches will disappear or become vestigial. In the grand scheme of things, that might not matter, as churches will flourish elsewhere.
Yes, that's the bigger point.
I love the fact that this thread acknowledges what most of the ones about the church's future don't, which is that this is a big world and the state of the church in Europe and North America is not the be-all-and-end-all. The church is flourishing world-wide, and if it isn't flourishing in our corner of the world it is our fault, not Christianity's.
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"Consequently nothing is of greater importance to a person than knowing what the truth is." Swedenborg
Posts: 12845 | From: Bryn Athyn | Registered: Jun 2001
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
quote:
The problems with Islam run deep, and since historically its main means of converting large numbers was by warfare, or family ties, its ability to evangelise in other ways hasn't been fully developed, both theologically and practically. Globalisation will destroy family ties, and there is no international acceptance of religious war any more.
This is true and, when Christianity has had the chance to compete on fair ground for converts it seems to thumping Islam in numbers of converts (see: Africa), despite all the oil money flowing from Saudi Arabia.
But it does have the advantage of being much simpler to understand than the doctrines Christianity, and its chief text is not allowed (often under threats of either violence in the Muslim world or accusations of "racism" in the West) to be put under textual or higher criticism.
quote:
That's always been the case though, since it was founded. I can't see that the current fault-lines are any worse, or likely to finally knock it over than the ones it survived before.
Here's the thing, though. It managed to hold together for so long in Britain because it was the established church, and in the US because TEC was the church of the white, establishment upper class. It was identified with the nation on one side of the Atlantic and respectable society on the other. Both of these things are slipping away. Do you really think Anglo-Catholics, Evangelicals, and theological liberals would bother staying in the same denomination if the CofE was disestablished? And with the white uppeer-crust establishment in my country becoming increasingly secular and wanting nothing to do with church (seeing even the most mild forms of belief as embarrassing), I don't see it holding up here, either.
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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Ramarius
Shipmate
# 16551
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
Here and here some articles about Brazil's rapidly falling birth rates. It seems to be something unprecedented that this is happening so fast, and surely this will have consequences for society. Europe already is struggling to adapt to this, I'm guessing that in the future it will be much harder for Brazil.
Thanks for the update LeRoc. I noticed the fertility rate in Brazil is 1.9, about the same as the UK, but higher than Russia or Germany at around 1.4. It will be easier for Brazil to adapt since it has a much younger population.
Posts: 950 | From: Virtually anywhere | Registered: Jul 2011
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Unreformed
Shipmate
# 17203
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ramarius:
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
Here and here some articles about Brazil's rapidly falling birth rates. It seems to be something unprecedented that this is happening so fast, and surely this will have consequences for society. Europe already is struggling to adapt to this, I'm guessing that in the future it will be much harder for Brazil.
Thanks for the update LeRoc. I noticed the fertility rate in Brazil is 1.9, about the same as the UK, but higher than Russia or Germany at around 1.4. It will be easier for Brazil to adapt since it has a much younger population.
Brazil can also rely on immigration in the future to replace its population, since like the US and Canada its primarily a settler country. It's harder for a place like Germany to do that.
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In the Latin south the enemies of Christianity often make their position clear by burning a church. In the Anglo-Saxon countries, we don't burn churches; we empty them. --Arnold Lunn, The Third Day
Posts: 246 | From: Richmond, VA | Registered: Jul 2012
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