|
Source: (consider it)
|
Thread: Vem pra Urna!(*) - elections in Brazil
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
It's still a couple of weeks away, but would anyone be interested in talking a bit about the upcoming elections in Brazil? It's a rather big country after all, and becoming more important globally. I don't claim to be an expert on the subject — keeping up with the ever-changing alliances would be a full day-job — but maybe living in this country I can say something about it.
(*)Vem pra Urna! ("Come to the voting booth") is the name of the official campaign in which the Brazilian government is calling on young people to vote here. Voting is compulsory for adults, but optional for 16 and 17 year olds.
Without a doubt, the defining moment of this election cycle has been the death of candidate Eduardo Campos in a crash of his campaign airplane. I have personally spoken with him once or twice a couple of years ago. Even if these were only short conversations, his death affects me somewhat emotionally.
But let me first name the most important people in this election here:
Dilma Rousseff, the incumbent from the Workers' Party (PT). Her politics are very much in line with those of her predecessor Lula. I have mixed feelings about her. The PT has done some good things, especially related to social programmes (state pensions, social housing, credit for small-scale farmers), but especially the Bolsa Família programme (in which families with children receive a small sum of money every month) also has some disadvantages. In some areas (for example land reform), the PT hasn't gone far enough to my taste.
Aécio Neves (PSDB). Although his party has 'Social Democrat' in its name, it is a right-wing party within the Brazilian constellation. If he wins, a neo-liberal government programme is expected: ongoing privatizations, watering down of social programmes ...
Eduardo Campos (PSB, deceased). He was hugely popular as governor in the state of Pernambuco. He managed to make the city of Recife safer without draconical zero-tolerance measures, which is no small feat in my opinion. He used to be allied with the PT, so his policies were on the left-wing side.
Marina Silva (PSB) was a candidate in 2010 for the Green Party, getting an unexpected 20% of the vote. Her candidature forced the PT to take deforestation of the Amazon forest more seriously, which is a hugely important issue in my view. An interesting factoid for the Ship: Silva is an evangelical (I think Assemblies of God). My feeling is that this might hurt her a bit in the elections.
So, what to expect? Given that there are three viable candidates, a run-off seems inevitable. Before Campos's death, the expectation was that Rousseff and Neves would face off for that, which Rousseff would win, although not easily.
Campos's death has turned things around quite a lot though. Rousseff and Silva are now at equal standing in the polls (both at 34%) with Neves trailing behind (15%). Things seem to be heading towards a Rousseff-Silva run-off, which would be interesting in itself, and which Silva might win. That would be a surprise, and I can't predict very well what the effects of this will be.
So, in an attempt to get a Purg discussion going: are you able to follow anything of this? Do you think the elections in Brazil will have any effect beyond its borders. In some opinions, Brazil seems poised to become a diplomatical power on the international stage, based on its regional dominance. However, it seems to me that these ambitions have been faltering somewhat. And what about the Amazon forest? In my opinion, whatever happens there will have a global impact.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
EtymologicalEvangelical
Shipmate
# 15091
|
Posted
I confess I don't know a great deal about the political situation in Brazil, but I would be interested to know what the government and candidates think about the situation with Russia (with regard to Ukraine). Russia is part of the BRICS group (of which, of course, Brazil is a member), and this seems to be developing as a counterweight to the G7. Have the recent developments soured Brazil's view of Russia?
--------------------
You can argue with a man who says, 'Rice is unwholesome': but you neither can nor need argue with a man who says, 'Rice is unwholesome, but I'm not saying this is true'. CS Lewis
Posts: 3625 | From: South Coast of England | Registered: Sep 2009
| IP: Logged
|
|
Palimpsest
Shipmate
# 16772
|
Posted
I am fairly ignorant as well, but I do see this having influence past the borders of Brazil. As I understand it, the riots that happened during the building of the FIFA indicate a growing unhappiness with the corruption and non-delivery of services to the non-elites. That view is heavily influenced by reading the Economist, but I do think a peaceful and successful transition to a reformist opposition would greatly inspire other countries which feel like the incumbent government is entrenched and corrupt.
Of course, part of the question is are the alternate choices much different and will they fade out as insignificant minority parties. I can't tell from here. I'd be curious to hear your opinions. Also, how much has the spending on FIFA and the team outcome affected the election?
Posts: 2990 | From: Seattle WA. US | Registered: Nov 2011
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
EtymologicalEvangelical:
I confess I don't know a great deal about the political situation in Brazil, but I would be interested to know what the government and candidates think about the situation with Russia (with regard to Ukraine).
That's an interesting question indeed, and I guess some kind of litmus test of how Brazil wants to act on the global stage.
My perception is that Brazil is trying to stay on the fence here. Like most countries it has commercial interests in Russia, and as you said they are both part of BRICS. Brazil also has a joint programme with the Ukraine about satellite launching.
The official Brazilian position on the conflict is that the countries "should try to reach a negotiated solution and act with moderation". That's much weaker than what the US and the EU have said. You don't become a global diplomatic player by keeping in the shadow like this.
BRICS as a whole seems divided, or perhaps slightly on Russia's side.
Rousseff is the incumbent, so her position coincides with the official Brazilian one. A quick Google didn't give me the positions of Neves and Silva, I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't formulated one.
quote:
Palimpsest: As I understand it, the riots that happened during the building of the FIFA indicate a growing unhappiness with the corruption and non-delivery of services to the non-elites.
I've watched these protests from close by, and I feel there is something that makes them different from what happened in other countries at the same time (for example Turkey). The thing is: most protesters were left-wing. A lot of them were politically on the side of Rousseff, although some were to the left of her. The protests weren't really a call for Rousseff to resign, and I wouldn't be surprised of most of the protesters will vote for her now. People protested against corruption and non-deliverance, yes. But most of them know that the other parties would be just as bad, if not worse.
I personally don't think these protests will play a big roll in the upcoming elections. News cycles move fast here too, and they have already been overshadowed by other things, most noteably Campos's death.
quote:
Palimpsest: Of course, part of the question is are the alternate choices much different and will they fade out as insignificant minority parties.
The PSDB has always been a significant force, and I believe this will continue to be the case, regardless of the outcome of these elections. The PSB is more of an unknown. They have experience on different levels of government, but you never know what will happen if they do reach the centre stage.
quote:
Palimpsest: Also, how much has the spending on FIFA and the team outcome affected the election?
I sometimes joke that Brazil should change the schedule of its presidential elections to not coincide with the World Cup. A Brazil loss (anything less than first place is a loss to them) usually hurts the incumbent, and I think this will be the case in this year too.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
EtymologicalEvangelical
Shipmate
# 15091
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc
That's an interesting question indeed, and I guess some kind of litmus test of how Brazil wants to act on the global stage.
My perception is that Brazil is trying to stay on the fence here. Like most countries it has commercial interests in Russia, and as you said they are both part of BRICS. Brazil also has a joint programme with the Ukraine about satellite launching.
The official Brazilian position on the conflict is that the countries "should try to reach a negotiated solution and act with moderation". That's much weaker than what the US and the EU have said. You don't become a global diplomatic player by keeping in the shadow like this.
I suppose another foreign policy issue is Brazil's view of the Falklands dispute. I think I am right in saying that Brazil has sided with Argentina on this one. I must admit I have mixed feelings about the issue (I don't think either side can deliver a knockout blow on the basis of the historical claims), but clearly the UK government has its position and I assume this stance will have an effect on our relations with Brazil and other South American nations, as well as with Argentina.
--------------------
You can argue with a man who says, 'Rice is unwholesome': but you neither can nor need argue with a man who says, 'Rice is unwholesome, but I'm not saying this is true'. CS Lewis
Posts: 3625 | From: South Coast of England | Registered: Sep 2009
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
EtymologicalEvangelical: I suppose another foreign policy issue is Brazil's view of the Falklands dispute. I think I am right in saying that Brazil has sided with Argentina on this one.
Definitely. This has a lot to do with UNASUR relations. I understand that ships flying a Falklands flag aren't allowed to dock at Brazilian ports. It's not a big issue here though. I doubt that many ordinary Brazilians care much about the Falklands / Malvinas dispute, or even know where these islands are.
In 2012, William Hague has said that the difference of opinion on this issue does not affect the good relationships between the UK and Brazil.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
Just a bit more about this subject. I got interested and started to Google around a bit. During the Falklands / Malvinas War, Brazil (which had a military government at the time) officially maintained a neutral position. However, documents that were released later reveal that the country actually gave logistical support to Argentina during this war, allowing it to use Brazilian airports to bring in supplies.
During this war, British Vulcans would take off from Ascension Island to carry out raids, and be refueled in mid-air on both legs of the trip. However, once something went wrong with refueling, and a Vulcan entered Brazilian air space trying to reach Rio de Janeiro, without warning Brazilian authorities first.
A couple of F-5s lifted off with cannons loaded to intercept, and there was a real possibility that they would try to engage the Vulcan. However, after a first failed attempt, communications were eventually established. The Vulcan requested to land at Rio for emergency refueling, which was granted. The plane was escorted by the F-5s the whole time.
Interesting.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
If anyone is still interested, the first round of the Brazilian elections was yesterday. That's always a strange day: more traffic than normally on a Sunday (I suffered a bit to get home from church) and all the bars are closed (it's forbidden to sell alcohol on Election Day).
The result for president was somewhat surprising: the incumbent Dilma Rousseff is going to face Aécio Neves for the second round. After Eduardo Campos's death, it looked for a long time that it was going to be between Rousseff and Marina Silva, which Silva might even win. Now she ended in third place.
I guess there has been some kind of 'emotional effect' after Campos's death that raised Silva's number artificially. I also heard that she did really bad in a televised debate (I didn't watch it).
I think Rousseff will win the second round. What normally happens is that Silva, who ended in third place, is going to negotiate with both remaining candidates whom she will support and what she will get in exchange (an important Ministry for example). The second round will be in three weeks.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
Why did Silva endorse Neves? I get that he may be offering her some important ministry, but aren't her politics (moral/religious issues aside) more in line with those of Rousseff?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
stonespring: Why did Silva endorse Neves? I get that he may be offering her some important ministry, but aren't her politics (moral/religious issues aside) more in line with those of Rousseff?
Thanks for your question, I'm happy that people want to discuss about this.
This is also a big question mark for me. If I'm cynical, I'd say that she negotiated both with Neves and with Rousseff, and Neves offered more (in terms of an important Ministry for example). That's how these things usually work. But I'll try to find out more.
A consequence of this is that Rousseff and Neves are now technically tied in the polls. This makes some of my left-wing friends in Brazil rather nervous (and me too, I admit).
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
Phew, that was close. I have a lot of friends in the Workers' Party, and you could feel the tension rising the last couple of weeks.
I think that at least partly, the party has brought this upon itself. Although I still think the PT is less corrupt than some other parties, there have been some prominent cases, and they haven't dealt with them very well. They'll have a lot to do the next four years.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
Here some coverage in the Grauniad on Rousseff's victory. I mostly agree with their analysis.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
Printer-friendly view
